CENN – MARCH 17, 2004 REGIONAL DAILY DIGEST
Table of Contents:
1. Announcements
1.1. Information-Theoretic Methods in Data Analysis
1.2. Invitation to Participate in the Web Discussion
1.3. The Russian Translation of the “NGO Strategy Conference: Making Our
Environment Work for Children’s Health”
2. Georgia
2.1. Georgians Demand Action to Save Their Homes from Oil Pipeline
3. Azerbaijan
3.1. Kazakhstan will Transport Gas Through Azerbaijan
3.2. Azerbaijan Expects Baku-Erzerum Gas Pipeline to Open in 2006
3.3. Baku Hopes for Rapid Adoption of Caspian Convention
3.4. Azerbaijan Participates in Berlin International Tourist Exhibition
4. Armenia
4.1. Armenia Looks for Alternative Energy Sources
4.2. EU Offers Armenia 100 Million Euros To Shut Down Nuclear Plant
4.3. Living in Yerevan Becomes Hazardous, NGO Says
1. ANNOUNCEMENTS
1.1. INFORMATION-THEORETIC METHODS IN DATA ANALYSIS
A 2-day Short course, May 26-27, 2004
Offered by Dr. David R. Anderson
This short course introduces a variety of general methods for data
analysis based on Kullback-Leibler Information. The sessions focus on
science hypotheses, models, and model selection methods such as AIC and
AICc.
After introducing important background material, methods are provided to
make formal statistical inference from more than a single model
(multimodel inference). The material is not deeply mathematical; the
emphasis is on science concepts and philosophy and a variety of examples
are provided.
The short course is based on the recent book, Burnham, K. P., and D. R.
Anderson. 2002 Model selection and multimodel inference. 2nd Ed.,
Springer-Verlag, New York, NY 488pp. The short course will be held in
Fort Collins, Colorado.
Additional details and registration form are provided at:
1.2. INVITATION TO PARTICIPATE IN THE WEB DISCUSSION
Dear Colleagues,
On March 18, 2004 from 18:00 to 20:00 Society `For Sustainable
Development’ with the technical support of the IREX Azerbaijan Branch
will hold electronic forum on `Education for Sustainable Development’
dedicated to the UN decade devoted to the Education for Sustainable
Development.
Forum will be held on the following address: http:
We invite you to participate in this web discussion
1.3. THE RUSSIAN TRANSLATION OF THE “NGO STRATEGY CONFERENCE: MAKING OUR
ENVIRONMENT WORK FOR CHILDREN’S HEALTH”
Dear Colleagues,
The Russian translation of the documents of “NGO strategy conference:
making our environment work for children’s health” (Brussels, December
2003, organized by European Public Health Alliance and European
ECO-Forum) is availble at
Click in the very bottom of this page at: “NGO Brussels Statement in
Russian” and “Final NGO Strategy Conference Report in Russian”.
Women in Europe for a Common Future
WECF
Email: [email protected]
Website:
German office:
Tel: +49-89-20232390 Fax: +49-89-20232391
Blumenstrasse 28, D – 80331 Munich
Germany
Dutch office:
Tel: +31-30-2310300 Fax: -2340878
Regulierenring 9, NL – 3981 LA Bunnik
The Netherlands
2. GEORGIA
2.1. GEORGIANS DEMAND ACTION TO SAVE THEIR HOMES FROM OIL PIPELINE
Official complaint to IFC reveals BTC negligence
Tbilisi, Georgia, March 16, 2004 — Residents of Rustavi, Georgia’s
third city, have today submitted an official complaint to the
International Finance Corporation (IFC) concerning the potentially
disastrous construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline
only 250 meters from a settlement of high-rise buildings.
[1] The residents are taking this step following a prolonged period of
uncertainty for them and their homes, a lack of information and response
from officials in Georgia and violent intimidation from the regional
police force.
In November 2003, the IFC, the World Bank’s private lending arm, agreed
to provide a USD 250 million loan to the controversial BP-led BTC
project. The residents’ complaint alleges that World Bank Group policies
and procedures have not been complied with on four counts. [2]
In January this year, people in Rustavi learned for the first time
exactly how close the pipeline would come to their homes when heavy
construction equipment and pipeline workers arrived without warning.
There was no mention of such proximity (180-250 meters) in the available
project documentation and maps. The BTC Company (BTC Co) indicates in
its project literature that there should be a 500-meter `security zone’
around the pipeline. It turns out that the pipeline will run along the
nearby Mtkvari river bank, a high level erosion zone, with potentially
destructive impacts on the most affected homes and the 700 families
living there.
Since learning of their plight, the Rustavi residents have sent letters
to and attempted to engage in dialogue with all the relevant parties –
the mayor of Rustavi, local representatives from BTC Co. and the IFC –
and have also taken their case to the Georgian parliament. Their appeals
have been either ignored or dismissed on the grounds that the pipeline
will comply with the highest western standards.
Merab Vacheishvili, one of the residents named in the complaint, said,
`We are told to shut up, stop wasting the company’s time and trust the
high standards of the project promoters. Yet local people have been kept
completely in the dark about this pipeline. How can we start trusting
now?’
Frustrated by officialdom, last month 400 residents took part in a
demonstration that interrupted the pipeline construction for one hour.
The demonstration, consisting mainly of women and children, was
violently broken up by the police. A police representative declared that
the orders had come directly from the government.
Eleonora Digmelashvili, another resident, commented, “We have applied to
the IFC Ombudsman as a last resort. There needs to be an independent
expert analysis of BTC impacts on our homes as well as strong guarantees
for our and our children’s security. If there are no such guarantees
then the pipeline route must be changed or we should be resettled.”
Contacts:
Merabi Vacheishvili
Tel: + 995 24 17 34 58
E-mail: [email protected]
Eleonora Digmelashvili
Tel: + 995 93 91 77 05
E-mail: [email protected]
Notes for editors:
1) The official complaint to the IFC’s Compliance Advisor/Ombudsman is
available here:
2) The four World Bank Group policies and procedures cited in the
official complaint are:
o Procedures for public disclosure
o IFC Operational Policy 4.01 on environmental assessment
o World Bank Operational Policy 4.30 on involuntary resettlement
o Procedures for preparation of Resettlement Action Plan
Background information on the BTC project is available from the
Bankwatch website:
Greig Aitken
Media coordinator
CEE Bankwatch Network
Bratislavska 31
602 00 Brno
Czech Republic
Tel: +420-545 214 431, ext 19
3. AZERBAIJAN
3.1. KAZAKHSTAN WILL TRANSPORT GAS THROUGH AZERBAIJAN
Kazakhstan will export certain part of its gas through Azerbaijan, said
president Ilham Aliyev at a meeting yesterday, according to Turan News
Agency.
A gas transporting agreement between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan was
reached during Aliyev’s Kazakhstan visit on March 1-2. The gas
transporting will be done via Baku-Tbilisi-Arzurum gas pipeline.
Kazakhstan produces 80 billion cubic meters of gas a year.
Kazakhstan may transport its oil with Azeri oil pipeline as well. An
agreement for an oil transfer is expected to be signed during a senior
Kazakh officials’ visit to Azerbaijan soon. According to initial talks
by the governments of the two countries Kazakh oil will be brought to
Azerbaijan with tankers. An off-shore pipeline might be built in case
the volume of oil delivery exceeds 20 million tons, according to
officials of Azerbaijan.
Baku Today, March 12, 2004
3.2. AZERBAIJAN EXPECTS BAKU-ERZERUM GAS PIPELINE TO OPEN IN 2006
Construction of the Baku-Erzerum gas pipeline will be completed by the
end of 2006, Azerbaijan President Ilkham Aliyev declared Friday at a
leadership meeting of Azerbaijan’s ruling party, Eni Azerbaijan,
Rosbalt. learned at the party press office.
The president said the line would make possible movement of Ajeri gas to
Turkey and then to Europe. Aliyev also said the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
export oil pipeline would be in operation by the end of 2004. He said
additional countries were now seeking to be linked to the pipeline, the
press office said.
According to expert figures, Azerbaijan will be producing approximately
50 billion cubic meters of natural gas from its sector of the Caspian
Sea by early 2007. The republic itself will need about 20% of this
amount.
Rosbalt, March 15, 2004
3.3. BAKU HOPES FOR RAPID ADOPTION OF CASPIAN CONVENTION
Baku is seeking the soonest adoption of a convention on the legal status
of the Caspian Sea, said Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Quliyev.
“We think that all of the convention’s provisions must be based on
international law and the states’ interests. We believe this will help
us come to an agreement,” Quliyev said at the opening of a Tuesday
session of the special working group responsible for determining the
Caspian’s status.
The Azerbaijan foreign minister said that his country, Russia, and
Kazakhstan have signed bilateral agreements, which provide a foundation
for reaching an agreement on the convention. “We hope that Iran and
Turkmenistan will join our position,” he said.
“Azerbaijan is opposed to militarizing the Caspian Sea and supports the
idea of turning it into a sea of friendship,” Quliyev said. He added
that improving regional security will contribute to resolving the status
issue.
Rosbalt, March 16, 2004
3.4. AZERBAIJAN PARTICIPATES IN BERLIN INTERNATIONAL TOURIST EXHIBITION
The `International Tourist Exhibition 2004 arranged by the World Tourist
Organization with the assistance of the German Ministry of Economy and
Labor and the International Exhibition Center’ gathered over 10 thousand
travel agencies from 178 countries in Berlin.
Each country has its separate exhibition section in the Berlin
international Exhibition Center covering 170 hectares area. The
Azerbaijan’s exposition assembled under the supervision of the Ministry
of Youth, Sports and Hotel `Grand Europa’ at the 50 square meters hall
¹5 and greets the visitors with the words Welcome to Azerbaijan’ on
entrance. The exposition includes models and pictures of Azerbaijan’s
ancient cultural monuments, as well as modern Hotel complexes combined
Western and Eastern architecture, photos of picturesque surroundings of
the country, samples of national clothes, carpets etc. The visitors show
interest in maps reflecting tourist opportunities, Great Silk Road,
related booklets and brochures and other promotional materials.
Head of the Azerbaijan delegation, Minister of Youth, Sports and Tourism
Abulfaz Garayev addressing the opening ceremony updated local a foreign
journalists on outlooks of tourism development in the country.
Heads of delegations participating in the exhibition highly praised the
exposition of Azerbaijan and stated they intended to sign cooperation
agreements with Azerbaijan on tourists exchange.
AzerTag, March 15, 2004
3.5. KEEPING BTC TRANSPARENT
The Open Society Institute of Azerbaijan intends to launch a new grant
program for non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to monitor the
construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.
CBN, March 17, 2004
4. ARMENIA
4.1. ARMENIA LOOKS FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES
According to t he information of Vardan Khachatryan, the Minister of
Finance and Economy of Armenia, the construction of a gas pipeline
between Iran and Armenia may begin in 2004 and will take from one to two
years. Gas pipeline will become an alternative source of energy
resources for Armenia in line with the program of shutting down the
Armenian Nuclear Power Plant [NPP]. Some 1bn dollars are to be found in
order to replace the NPP’s capacity, he said. At present, only the
European Union has stated its readiness to allocate to this ends 100m
euros that will be transferred to a specially designated fund. On top of
that the EU will facilitate its search for international investors,
Khachatryan said. He did not rule out Russia’s participation in the
construction of the pipeline. The acting Russian deputy prime minister,
Boris Aleshin, stated Russia ‘s interest in that during his recent visit
to Yerevan. Khachatryan said that work is under way to build in Armenia
wind power and hydropower stations as substitutes for the NPP. It is
also planned to upgrade the Yerevan thermal power station with the
140m-dollar credit from the Japan Bank of International Cooperation. The
minister said that there is a strategic program to develop the Armenian
energy sector by 2020 and the program envisages a series of measures
aimed at shutting down the NPP.
Arminfo, March 15, 2004
4.2. EU OFFERS ARMENIA 100 MILLION EUROS TO SHUT DOWN NUCLEAR PLANT
The European Union renewed pleas to Armenia Monday to close a nuclear
power station in an earthquake-prone zone, saying it would provide 100
million euros (122 million dollars) in compensatory aid. The
Soviet-built Metzamor plant, 30 kilometers (18 miles) west of the
Armenian capital Yerevan, supplies 40 percent of the energy in the
former Soviet republic. It was commissioned in 1980 but closed
temporarily because of an earthquake in 1988. “Safety is very important
to us,” said Torben Holtze, head of the European Commission delegation
here. “The EU will give Armenia 100 million euros to create alternative
energy production when Armenia sets a date for the closure of the power
plant,” he told journalists.
But Armenian Finance Minister Vardan Khachatrian said his country would
need a billion dollars to compensate for losses if the nuclear plant
closes.
The question of closure was “a very painful question for us,” he said.
“We will not close the plant until we have alternative energy sources.”
He said construction of a gas pipeline between Iran and Armenia set to
begin this year would speed moves towards alternative energy.
The nuclear plant was closed down temporarily in 1988 because of an
earthquake at Spitak, but resumed operating in 1995 in order to help
stave off a national energy crisis.
The EU signed an accord with Armenia on closing the plant this year but
Armenia has failed to meet this deadline.
Officials here say the plant is capable of operating until 2018.
Gaguik Markossian, the plant’s director, said in December that
international credits and aid had allowed Armenia to make many safety
improvements at the plant, which includes two 440-megawatt reactors,
only one of which is in operation.
With electricity supplies reduced to three or four hours a day and
industry in crisis, one of the reactors was restarted in 1995. Since
then about 35 million dollars (28 million euros) have been spent on
various safety improvements.
The Institute for Applied Ecology in Austria says the Armenian plant,
along with similar units in Bulgaria, is among the most dangerous in
Europe.
AFP, March 15, 2004
4.3. LIVING IN YEREVAN BECOMES HAZARDOUS, NGO SAYS
On March 16, 2004 a coalition of 28 nature protection non-governmental
organizations, united in Yerevan Ecological Alliance, warned that living
in Armenia’s capital is becoming gradually hazardous, following mass
logging of trees in public parks and building the vacated areas with
cafes and other entertaining facilities.
Sona Ayvazian, one of the seven members of the Alliance’s board stated:
“We have neither forests, nor parks, the only green area in the capital
is the Botanic garden in which many species are drying up.” She called
on mass medias and public at large to raise their protesting voice
against the ongoing destruction of green areas. According to another
speaker, in early nineties trees were cut by people to warm their houses
due to the lack of other fuel, today forests are destroyed to make
money.
Armenpress, March 16, 2004
—
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A1 Plus | 21:47:51 | 17-03-2004 | Politics |
URSULA SCHLEICHER HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE
Ursula Schleicher and Armen Rustamyan, Co-Chairs of European Union-Armenia
Parliamentary Cooperation Commission held a press conference Parliament.
Mrs Schleicher expressed joy over the unprecedented economic growth but
added that there are still poor in Armenia and Government had to elaborate
poverty reduction project.
As to provision of speech freedom and pluralism in electronic Mass Media,
Mrs Schleicher informed that the delegation had met Grigor Amalyan. He had
introduced Schleicher the licensing order and explained that broadcasting
can be granted only through tender.
We asked if European Union has key factors to send a group of experts to
check whether there are free frequencies in the Armenian field since
Armenian Communication Minister and Amalyan insist there aren’t any whereas
the specialists confirm the contrary. “Armenia is a CE member and CE has
legal methods to solve such problems. You’d better address it for that
purpose”, Mrs Schleicher answered.
By the way, at the end of the 6th sitting of European Union-Armenia
Parliamentary Cooperation Commission parties approved a statement, which
consisted of rather gentle phrasings, for instance the clause on press
freedom says. “An attention is paid to the vital role of free press to
provide democracy development in Armenia and underlines necessity of
pluralism of electronic Mass Media”.
—

Kaiser Arbitration May Be Unenforceable, Says Unfair Business Competition
Case Finalized Today
To: State and City Desk
Contact: Carmen Balber of Election Watchdog, 310-392-0522, ext. 324; web:
LOS ANGELES, March 17 /U.S. Newswire/ — The son of a Kaiser Permanente
patient who died under Kaiser’s care filed final papers with the court today
in a groundbreaking suit which requires Kaiser to disclose to patients that
its arbitration provisions may be unenforceable. Kaiser routinely funnels
aggrieved patients and survivors into binding arbitration and denies them
access to the courtroom. Chant Yedalian’s case, brought under the unfair
business competition law and finalized today, restricts the ability of the
HMO to continue forcing arbitration on patients as a way to limit their
liability.
Yedalian went to law school following his mother’s death to find a way to
prevent others from suffering as his mother did. Now, Kaiser has contributed
$100,000 to a ballot initiative which would gut the unfair business
competition law, which Yedalian used to force Kaiser’s disclosure.
“Kaiser broke California law by forcing patients into secret arbitration
proceedings without fully and properly disclosing that they had given up
their rights. Today’s filing closes the door on the HMO’s illegal actions.
The unfair business competition law was the only tool I had to hold Kaiser
accountable for its deception. With today’s resolution of the case, Kaiser
should take back the donation it made to the anti- patient initiative and
stop its efforts to restrict patients’ rights,” said Yedalian.
Mandatory arbitration is a private proceeding in which there is no public
record or judicial appeal, and arbitrators are often biased in favor of the
HMO. Kaiser failed to follow state law requiring the HMO to disclose to
enrollees that they were giving up their right to go to court in case of a
dispute. Because of this failure, a court found that the HMO’s arbitration
provision was not enforceable. Yedalian’s suit forced Kaiser to disclose to
patients considering a medical malpractice claim that they may not be bound
to arbitration. After the document filed today is signed by the court, the
action will be dismissed and the court will retain jurisdiction over the
case to ensure that the settlement is enforced and Kaiser informs patients
of their rights.
Yedalian’s mother, Zevart, died in 1998 at the age of 53. She died from
breast cancer after Kaiser denied her a bone marrow transplant that could
have saved her life. His only avenue to ensure that other Kaiser patients
are not secretly deprived of their day in court through hidden mandatory
arbitration agreements was the state’s unfair business competition law.
Under the initiative to gut the law, currently circulating for the November
ballot, Yedalian’s case could never have been brought.
Yedalian joined over 60 public interest groups last week who have asked that
Kaiser and other corporate donors withdraw their support of the
anti-consumer initiative. (Read their letter at
Read the
initiative at .
“Kaiser should not be using premium dollars to fight against patient rights
and HMO accountability,” said Carmen Balber, a consumer advocate with
Election Watchdog. “This ballot initiative is an attempt by big business to
eliminate responsibility when they mislead, abuse and cheat consumers.”
The unfair business competition law was “the only vehicle we had to
vindicate the public’s constitutional right to trial by jury,” said
Yedalian.
Insurance, HMO and auto companies are bankrolling the initiative which would
eliminate the right of public interest organizations to bring cases on
behalf of Californians to prevent injury or harm to the environment,
workers, consumers or the public health, instead only allowing cases brought
by the government or after the damage has been done. Further, the
legislature would never be allowed to amend the law.
The big business initiative is in part a response to successful suits
brought by the Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights and other
organizations under the Unfair Business Competition Law against HMOs that
put profits before patients and insurance companies that low-balled claims
in the wake of the Northridge earthquake.
—
Election Watchdog is a political action committee sponsored by Consumer
Watchdog, a nonprofit public benefit corporation organized in California.
Election Watchdog was organized to protect consumers’ interests in the
ballot initiative process and does not take positions on candidate
elections. Consumer Watchdog is the advocacy and campaign affiliate of the
Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights (FTCR). Learn more at

Azat Artsakh – Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (NKR)
12-03-2004
THE DANGEROUS MARSH OF KARABAKH
Soon it will be ten years since bloodshed was stopped in Karabakh but
the conflict remains unsettled. The month of February of this year
“dragged” the quest for peace from the deadlock to a real marsh. The
situation with the conflict has never been so disorderly. Today
everybody knows that the delay in the process of negotiations was not
related to the presidential elections in Armenia and Azerbaijan, and
Heidar Aliev’s retreat from power. It is obviously the consistent
crisis: Baku and Yerevan suffer from maximalism and are not willing
for compromises, and Stepanakert does not participate in negotiations
yet. The new president of Azerbaijan Heidar Aliev has realized that
he has no power to admit the loss of Karabakh (his father was almost
going to take that step), and therefore prefers not continuing (on
the acquired basis) the negotiations with Robert Kocharian started
three years ago in Key West and Paris. Foreign minister of Azerbaijan
even proposed starting the negotiations from “zero” but nobody knows
where this zero is. Robert Kocharian does not agree to give up what
has been achieved. But if they propose starting negotiations from
zero Robert Kocharian suggested starting them with Nagorni Karabakh.
Baku appeared in a controversial situation. If they formerly
emphasized that Azerbaijan’s patience is not limitless, and they
would liberate the territories occupied by Armenians at any cost
(even by violating all their obligations of settling the conflict in
a peaceful way) today they are of the opinion that time works for
them and there is no need to hurry. It is known that the parties and
the international organizations have always been absolutely for a
rapid peaceful settlement. Baku also reminds regularly that the life
of the Azerbaijani refugees in tents is unbearable any more. And
suddenly such slowness. Moreover, I. Aliev is categorically against
compromises, which even his father did not dare to make. Perhaps he
has discovered another “possibility” of regulation, that of
unilateral dictate. Formerly they blamed Robert Kocharian for not
being concessive and tolerable, for the syndrome of the winner.
Whereas today, I. Aliev has gone further ahead of Armenians assuming
the bearing of a virtual winner in the economic and military
competition. We may only welcome the fact that he has been supporting
peaceful settlement of the conflict more often, yielding only to the
announcements of the defence minister about revenge by force. We
shall ascribe these zigzags to the fact that the head of state
adjusts to his role in hard conditions, and come back to the hard
fate of the Karabakh settlement. Despite the disorderly situation,
one thing is clear: Baku and Yerevan cannot impose on each other
their favourable variants of solution neither in respect to the cause
of the conflict (the status of Nagorni Karabakh) or elimination of
the consequences (occupation of territories outside the border of
NK), nor the methods of problem settlement (package or false stage by
stage variant). The approaches of the parties in many respects were
very different in the past too but they have never been that
polarized. The doubts concerning the effectiveness of the meeting of
the two presidents today are becoming clearer. It is high time to
reconsider the “lazy” process of negotiations for Nagorni Karabakh
but never to start from “zero”. It is necessary to return to the
stable mechanism of regular negotiations between the accredited
delegations of all the parties within the framework of international
mediation, with an open agenda to achieve agreements in any question
(no matter if those are insignificant in the beginning). A true
alternative to the deadlock in the negotiations is the ancient saying
“Slow and steady wins the race”; it will be favourable for all the
parties. Patiently proceeding “from the simple to the complicated” is
more effective than any attempt at solving the problems immediately.
If seeking for the settlement is to go on within the framework of the
OSCE (otherwise there are a lot of candidates) there is no more exact
calculation than the resolutions of the December 6, 1994 summit of
Budapest. Those were passed by consensus, on the highest level, and
what is more, not before the peak of military actions (as the
Helsinki resolution of March 1992) but after the cease-fire. It is
more substantial than the other processes for the mechanism of the
negotiations. The later created forms of relationships (meetings of
presidents, missions of the co-chairmen) were some additional forms
never brought into being outside the mandate of Budapest. This was
the result of inconsistency of the parties and the departure of the
co-chairmen from the OSCE resolutions under the pressure of the
parties. By the way the Budapest summit had set an aim to conduct
negotiations without delay and open the Minsk consultation. The OSCE
and the co-chairmen could have revealed more clearly to what extent
the parties needed international mediation in conflict settlement.
How can the parties demand activity and new suggestions from the
mediators if they do not hurry at all (some quietly, others
announcing to the world). The efforts of the parties for finding
peace should not be weaker than those of the mediators. There are
already many ideas on resumption of the negotiation process, there is
also a variety of new suggestions. But this will have meaning only in
case of more serious approach to the problem by the parties which
have brought the long-lasting deadlock situation to a dangerous
marsh.
VLADIMIR KAZIMIROV

Azat Artsakh – Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (NKR)
12-03-2004
YMCA IN ARTSAKH
By the invitation of the public organization “Youth Center” the
delegation of the Young Men’s Christian Association arrived in
Stepanakert on March 8. The delegation was headed by the vice
secretary chief of the European alliance of YMCA Mihal Shumanchek.
Among the delegates were the secretary on development of the YMCA
European alliance Vardan Hambardzoumian, the chairman of the Armenian
national union of YMCA Artur Ghazarian, secretary of programs Marat
Mouradian, director of the office Ghazaros Bardakchian. According to
the chairman of the organization “Youth Center” Lousine Grigorian, in
2002-2003 several members of the center visited Armenia, Georgia and
Russia and, took part in the training held by the Council of Europe
on democracy and conflicts where they came in touch with members of
the YMCA. In autumn several YMCA members visited Stepanakert and once
again met with the members of the Youth Center. On March 8 of the
current year the YMCA delegation arrived in Stepanakert to assist to
the young people of Artsakh in establishing the organization here.
The first YMCA in Armenia was established in 1908, in the city Adana
in West Armenia, the members of which fell victim to the genocide
organized by Turkey. In Armenia the movement was revived in 1992 due
to a group of young people in cooperation with the organization Care
International. In 1994 it was registered as a public organization.
According to Lusineh Grigorian, probably by the end of 2004 the
Artsakh organization of YMCA will start operating in Artsakh.
CHRISTINE KHANUMIAN

Azat Artsakh – Republic of Nagorno Karabakh (NKR)
15-03-2004
G. KASPAROV: GLAD THAT TOURNAMENT IS HELD IN STEPANAKERT
On March 9 the international chess tournament devoted to the 75th
anniversary of the 9th champion of the world Tigran Petrossian
started in Stepanakert. Ten grand masters of chess, 3 international
masters, honourable guests from more than ten countries take part in
the tournament, among them the ex-champion of the world Boris
Spassky, grand masters Yevgeny Sveshnikov, Vladimir Hakobian and
Smbat Lpoutian, and others. The Azerbaijani authorities indeed made
much noise about the “organization of an international tournament by
FIDE in Khankendi, the center of Nagorni Karabakh considered an
Azerbaijani territory.” They were especially disappointed with the
greeting of the chairman of FIDE to the participants of the
tournament. And it is not a surprise that the mass media of our
neighbour country on these days is busy with another campaign against
“arrogant Armenians”, the NKR authorities. They, in particular,
“revealed” the observations of the former world champion of chess
Garry Kasparov he made in his interview to the Russian TV channel
NTV. The reason may be the memories connected with the world-famous
chess player born in Baku or simply the feeling of hate and jealousy…
Who knows? But in his speech Kasparov did not mention them at all,
and especially did not hurt the dignity of the Azerbaijanis. In this
case what is the meaning of getting angry and making a racket before
the world. In his greeting Kasparov simply mentioned, “I am glad that
the international tournament in the memory of T. Petrossian is held
in Stepanakert, which, in my opinion, is a manifestation of good will
on the part of FIDE. Life in Nagorni Karabakh is normalizing. The
wounds caused by the war are healing. People are busy with creative
peaceful work. And it is extremely important that together with
maintaining the defence of the country the authorities pay special
attention to the problems of development of culture and sport.
Presentations are organized in Stepanakert – Nagorni Karabakh
officially steps on the international arena. And I am glad that
especially Stepanakert was chosen for holding the international
tournament. I congratulate heartily all the participants of the
tournament, as well as the organizers who managed to overcome the
complex and gave way to Karabakh to the international arena.” In his
speech the chairman of FIDE Ilyumzhinov also emphasized the
importance of the tournament. He approved of the fact of holding the
international tournament devoted to the 75th anniversary of the world
champion Tigran Petrossian in Stepanakert and assured that the
tournament will favour the development of traditions of the Armenian
school of chess. Expressing his concern referring the attempts at
hindering the arrival of the foreign chess-players to Nagorni
Karabakh, obstructing the tournament, NKR prime minister Anoushavan
Danielian emphasized the inadmissibility of politicizing such spheres
as sport, humanitarian problems. He described the efforts of Baku as
an encroachment on the people of NKR. “The fact that the ambitions of
the Azerbaijani authorities are devoid of basis is proved by holding
the tournament which took place despite everything,” mentioned A.
Danielian, “sport has always been regarded as the ambassador of
peace. Therefore, the interests of our nations demand that battles
should take place on the chessboard and not in battlefields…” “It’s a
pity that Azerbaijan is discontent with organizing the tournament in
Stepanakert,” mentioned the organizer of the tournament, director of
the Armenian academy of chess, Smbat Lpoutian, “every similar
tournament is a significant event for the world of chess, especially
when it is held in the memory of a person such as Tigran Petrossian.
All the chess-players taking part in the tournament received the
invitation with love. I am sure that Stepanakert will become a
traditional town of international meetings and will be recognized in
the world as a chess town.” The chess commentators of the TV channel
NTV Sergey and Marina Makarevich also expressed their ideas
concerning the tournament held in the capital of NKR. Comparing the
recently held tournament in Linares with Stepanakert Sergey did not
hide his surprise concerning the fact that Nagorni Karabakh, having
just overcome the war, could organize a sport event on such a high
level. “Being so small, Stepanakert, in fact, has become a chess town
and is in the center of attention of the world chess-players today,”
he said. And his wife Marina, who covered the tournament of Linares,
added, “The sport and creative morale of the tournament in
Stepanakert is so high that I seemed to be in Linares. I admired the
new juvenile chess school of Stepanakert which, indeed, will have a
great future. I became convinced there that the young men love chess
more than in any other country. And the important thing is that they
do not play badly.”
DAVIT MIKAELIAN

Globe and Mail, Canada
March 17 2004
Rag-tag team seeks puck of the Irish

By ALLAN MAKI
>From Wednesday’s Globe and Mail

This was the summary from yesterday’s big hockey game in Iceland:
Mexico 8, Ireland 3. Ireland’s first two goals were scored by a
Russian defenceman. The Irish also got a goal from a left winger who
just happens to be a tennis pro who lives and coaches in Dublin.
But forget about that for a moment. Yesterday is done. Today is the
day that matters. Today is the day the tennis playing Larry Jurovich
and his Irish teammates have been thinking about for months; the day
they can do themselves and all Ireland proud by scoring their first
victory at a world hockey championship and on St. Patrick’s Day, no
less.
All they have to do is beat Armenia. Beat Armenia on St. Paddy’s Day
and, guaranteed, Irish hockey will have its galvanizing moment, its
1972 Summit Series, its 1980 Winter Olympics; also a good excuse to
drink green beer.
Mind you, just making it to the 2004 International Ice Hockey
Federation Division III world championship in Reykjavik is a major
accomplishment for this Irish team. Ireland has little history and no
burning connection to the game. It has even less when it comes to
youth hockey. As for permanent rinks, you can count them on two
fingers (the Odyssey Arena in Belfast and the International Ice Bowl
in Dundonald).
That so few given so little could get to a world championship is a
tribute to the Irish team’s spirit, its raw athleticism and, of
course, a bunch of puck-crazed Canadians.
You didn’t think there’d be a hockey story without some Canadian
content, did you? Jurovich, the tennis ace and goal-scoring left
winger, was born in Vancouver. He is now a naturalized Irish citizen
who serves as the high-performance coach for Tennis Ireland.
Centreman John White is a 44-year-old Dublin-born Canadian who says
he played his minor hockey in Brantford, Ont., with none other than
Wayne Gretzky. Garrett MacNeill, another Dublin-born Canadian, plays
defence for the Manhattanville College Valiants, an NCAA Division III
school in New York.
Then there are the coaches, Greg Fitzgerald and Jim Graves, both of
whom hail from the true north strong and free and now reside in
Dublin. Rounding out the rest of the roster are seven players from
Belfast, nine from Dublin and Dimitry Slavashevsky, the 34-year-old
defenceman whose parents came from Minsk, perhaps to get away from
hockey.
If the Irish lineup seems more than a wee bit quirky, consider what
the players had to go through in preparation for the world
championship. At first, they practised in Dublin, where the last
permanent arena was shut down four years ago. They practised
outdoors, on a non-regulation-size rink, after they’d finished work.
During Christmas, the players practised outdoors at midnight, after
all the public skaters had gone home. They did this three times a
week until they figured there had to be a better way, and there was.
Sort of.
What the Dublin-based players did was climb into their vehicles and
drive 21/2 hours north to Belfast, two, sometimes three times a week,
for on-ice sessions. They did this when they weren’t doing off-ice
workouts at the national boxing club or in-line skating to stay in
shape.
“We may not have a rink, and we may lack game experience, but we’ll
have the best fitness possible,” team captain Mark Bowes promised.
Bowes is the general secretary of the Irish Ice Hockey Association.
He and president/defenceman Cliff Saunders have done their part to
promote the game in Ireland, a game that Saunders has described as “a
cross between hurling and skating with the excitement of both.” (No
word on what Saunders thought of the Todd Bertuzzi incident, which
made a lot of Canadians think about hurling, too.)
Just how well Ireland will do at the Division III world championship
is an exercise in wishful thinking. Five years ago, the country sent
a team to the European under-18 junior championship in Bulgaria and
failed to win a game. Five players from that team played yesterday
against Mexico in a game in which the Irish were tied 2-2 after one
period, down a goal after two periods but badly outscored in the
third.
But to the likes of Slavashevsky and Jurovich and everyone else on
the emerald team, yesterday’s loss is over and done. Today is all
that matters; the day they can down Armenia and make their mark. That
it could happen on St. Patrick’s Day has presented them with an
opportunity they’ve been dreaming about for months.
The question now is: Is there a Paul O’Henderson in their midst?

Oil And Gas Journal
March 17 2004
Analyst: Potential Caspian oil production cannot free US from OPEC by
2008

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Mar. 17 — Caspian Sea region oil reserves will not free the
US from its dependence on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries by 2008, said Wayne Andrews, analyst with Raymond James &
Associates Inc.

“Politically, the stakes may be high, but from a pure energy supply
standpoint, the region is only a minnow in the vast ocean of Middle
Eastern oil,” Andrews said in a research note last month.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will accommodate further development
by Azerbaijan International Operating Co. of the
Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) complex off Baku. The pipeline will bring
oil from Caspian fields to Turkey where it will be exported to world
markets.

“While we see no inherent problem in the construction of the pipeline
itself, everyone should be clear that the amount of oil in question
is so modest as to be almost immaterial for the market,” Andrews
said.

Best case scenario
Currently, the ACG Phase 1 produces less than 150,000 b/d. A BP
PLC-led consortium plans to ramp up production to 1 million b/d by
2008 in three phases, starting with 350,000 b/d in 2005 (OGJ Online,
Sept. 18, 2002).

But assuming that production does increase sevenfold in 4 years, the
growth only represents an extra 850,000 b/d.

“To put this in context, we project that global oil demand in 2004
will average 80.5 million b/d. Even assuming a very conservative 1.2%
annual demand growth for the next 4 years, 2008 demand would reach
84.4 million b/d, 3.9 million higher than currently,” Andrews said.

That means that Caspian oil would provide slightly more than 1% of
global demand in 2008, he concluded, noting that amount “will not
come even remotely close to replacing the West’s dependent on Persian
Gulf oil.” Meanwhile, OPEC is expected to supply 35-45% of world oil
supplies in 2008.

Obstacles to Caspian development
Andrews does not expect Caspian oil production to proceed as quickly
as project sponsors have forecast.

“If fact, there are several significant obstacles that may serve to
slow down development of the Caspian fields over the intermediate
term. While it is difficult to quantify their impact, it seems clear
to us that their overall influence will be negative,” he said.

The three biggest obstacles are corruption, political instability,
and the threat of violence.

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is slated to run through Azerbaijan,
Georgia, and Turkey. Andrews noted that corruption “has reached
enormous proportions since 1991” in Azerbaijan and Georgia.

“Despite the institutional safeguards insisted upon by the
multilateral lenders who provided project finance for the pipeline,
it is probable that at least some of the funds will not be spent
according to Western ‘best practices.’ This has the potential to
materially slow the pace of construction,” Andrews said.

After pipeline construction is finished, the system will face the
threat of violence from a potential conflict between Armenia and
Azerbaijan (OGJ Online, Jan. 30, 2003).

“Where there is a durable ceasefire in place, it is important to
recall that this conflict had escalated into nearly full-scale war in
the early 1990s. Other ethnic tensions in the Caucasus may lead to
strikes on the pipeline and other oil infrastructure,” Andrews said.

In addition, the Caspian region presents the logistical problems of
operating in remote terrain and the technical challenges of handling
highly sour crude oil.

RJA outlined “a mid-range scenario” in which the Caspian supplies
0.5% of world oil demand by 2008.

“In short, the Caspian’s output potential is simply too low to be of
any real significance for the oil market, so there is every reason to
believe that OPEC will be at least as firmly in control of the market
in 2008 as it is today,” Andrews said.

RIA Novosti, Russia
March 17 2004
FOREIGN MINISTER SPEAKS OUT ON RUSSIA’S POLICY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
MOSCOW, March 17, 2004 (RIA Novosti) – Moscow has noted progress in
Russian-Chinese relations. “China is our neighbour and friend,”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a press conference on
Wednesday.
“Russia’s and China’s positions on the overwhelming majority of
international problems are identical,” Mr. Lavrov said and added that
China’s position was becoming clearer and more outward-looking.
Mr. Lavrov also said that China was emerging as a major international
player.
Russia believes it important that China should tackle international
issues in cooperation with other countries. “This is a guarantee of
sustainable international relations,” said the minister.
Speaking about Russia’s relations with Japan, Mr. Lavrov said the
bilateral peace treaty must be drafted with due heed to the two
countries’ constitutions.
The minister said Moscow and Tokyo had a plan, according to which
they were working over the treaty.
When pressed for comment on Russia’s position on the territorial
dispute with Japan, Mr. Lavrov said that both countries had relevant
guidelines and the desire to move on.
Japanese Premier Junichiro Koizumi and Russian leaders adopted the
Action Plan in January 2003 when Mr. Koizumi was visiting Russia.
This comprehensive political document outlined the guidelines of
bilateral cooperation, including the guidelines of peace treaty
talks.
The negotiating process involves the two countries’ senior officials
and a bilateral commission, which was set up in 1998 and is headed by
the two foreign ministers.
Japan’s claims to South Kuriles continue to be the most sensitive
issue of bilateral relations, which hampers the signing of the peace
treaty. The insufficient volume and dynamism of mutual trade, which
do not correspond to the two countries’ cooperation potential, poor
investment in the Russian economy and Tokyo’s refusal to re-register
the former Soviet Union’s property in Japan with modern Russia make a
series of other problems facing the two countries.
Mr. Lavrov also emphasised at the press conference that Moscow sought
to continue the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear programme.
The Russian minister emphasised that the next round of talks had been
scheduled for as early as the summer of 2004.
Mr. Lavrov said he would meet his South Korean counterpart, Pan
Ki-mun, in late April or early May.
“This is when we will discuss arrangements for the third round of
six-party talks on North Korea, which will positively take place,”
Mr. Lavrov said, when asked whether the impeachment of South Korean
President No Mu-hyon would influence the negotiating process.
The process involves the United States, North Korea and other parties
concerned, including Russia, China, South Korea and Japan, which are
looking for ways to end the North’s nuclear programme. The first two
rounds of talks in Beijing did not bring progress, however the
countries did not abandon their efforts.
At the end of the second round of talks, the parties announced that
they would gather for the third round in summer 2004. They also
resolved to set up a joint working group to round off rough corners
in the positions of, above all, the USA and North Korea.
Observers suggested that the impeachment of the South Korean leader,
who supports rapprochement with the North, may affect the course of
talks. However, South Korea’s constitutional court may overrule,
within 6 months, the parliament’s impeachment decision if it finds it
insufficiently substantiated.
When speaking about the situation in the Balkans, Mr. Lavrov said
Russia was continuing to promote its interests in the region by
developing friendly relations with regional countries.
“We look forward to a time when the withdrawal of troops of one
country from another country will not be treated as the latter’s
inability to ensure its interests,” said Mr. Lavrov.
Mr. Lavrov said Moscow advocated a united Cyprus’ accession to the
European Union. However, this must happen on mutual accord and under
the UN aegis, said the Foreign Minister.
In the beginning, Russia had some doubts about the UN-proposed scheme
of resolving the Cyprus problem, according to which the UN Secretary
General was to advance his solution if the Cypriot negotiators,
Greece and Turkey fail to come to an agreement.
“We thought such an approach would endanger the principle of
voluntariness,” said Mr. Lavrov. He added that the involved parties’
current actions dispelled Moscow’s doubts.
In comments on media reports that Greece has approached NATO,
requesting it to help ensure Greek athletes’ security during the
summer Olympics in Athens, Mr. Lavrov said it was Greece’s legitimate
right to do so. “As to our athletes, we will resolve this problem on
our own,” he said.
When dwelling on certain aspects of Russia’s relations with former
Soviet republics, the Foreign Minister emphasised that Moscow was
continuing efforts to settle the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over
Nagorny Karabakh.
“Russia co-chairs what is known as the Minsk Group, which also
involves the USA and France. The group is looking for appropriate
ways to settle the conflict,” said Mr. Lavrov.
The group had advanced a series of settlement scenarios, which did
not work for technical, and later on, for political reasons,
according to Mr. Lavrov.
Yerevan and Baku will conduct direct political dialogue, which will
bring stability to the entire region, said Mr. Lavrov.

ArmenPress
March 17 2004
KOCHARIAN WELCOMES WIDER EUROPE, NEW NEIGHBORS CONCEPT
YEREVAN, MARCH 17, ARMENPRESS: Armenian president Robert Kocharian
has reaffirmed today his country’s commitment to enlarge the frames
and deepen cooperation between Armenia and the European Union.
Receiving a delegation of the European Union-Armenian parliamentary
cooperation commission, led by Ursula Schleikher, Kocharian described
economic relations between the parties as “very practical,” and
welcomed the process known as “Wider Europe, New Neighbors.”
“It is a serious incentive for Armenia to continue the process of
reforms and bring its legislation in compliance with European
standards,” Kocharian was quoted by his press office as saying.
Members of the delegation, who visited previously Armenia in 2002,
noted a significant progress since then, especially in what relates
to economy and stability. Ms. Schleikher was quoted as saying that
the South Caucasus is in the focus of Europe’s interests, which wants
it to be a region of stability and peace.
Kocharian briefed the delegation on a variety of issues, including
also prospects for resolving the Karabagh conflict.