NT Highlights #13 (515)
5 April, 2004
Much Ado About Nothing?
By Haroutiun Khachatrian
Outsiders visiting Armenia on these days may be surprised to learn from mass
media, (including the state-owned ones) that there is a political tension in
this country.
There are almost no real signs to prove this.
In fact, I believe the people saying that there is little basis for
extensive shock and shaking in Armenia are right.
The opposition has declared a single goal: to force Robert Kocharian to
resign, as the results of his re-elections last year were falsified. Event
if one agrees with this allegation, it still remains to see what are the
resources the opposition plans to use to force Kocharian to leave the
President’s office? Its leaders mention one single resource: the people will
organize, in reply to the appeals of these leaders, mass actions of protest
and civil disobedience.
Will they? I doubt deeply. These same opposition leaders failed to persuade
the population to participate in such actions a year ago, immediately after
the presidential elections, when emotions were much higher than now. The
simple fact that Geghamian and Demirchain act jointly now (they failed to
coordinate their actions last year) is evidently insufficient to spark a
large-scale “people movement”now. Despite the high level of negative
emotions towards the authorities and Kocharian personally.
Those seeing parallels between today’s Armenia and Georgia of the last
November miss an important factor: both the life standards and the
capacities of the state machinery in Armenia are much higher than in the
neighboring country. Hence, the basis for a type of “rose revolution” here
is very small if any.
For this reason, the nervous reaction of authorities to the threats of the
opposition leaders look often exaggerated, to put it mildly. The ridiculous
actions of egg-throwing or organizing faked funeral ceremonies to prevent
the actions of oppositions are followed by criminal cases which cannot be
explained by common reason. The same is true for the anti-opposition
campaign in state-run media. I may be wrong, but it seems that this reaction
roots in peculiarities of the character of Robert Kocharian, who takes every
criticism as a personal insult. Anyway, these actions may bring the
situation to even higher degree of tension (and cause more damage) than it
could be in case if the authorities had a more sober stance.
—
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

A1 Plus | 15:20:31 | 06-04-2004 | Politics |
STATEMENT OF NATIONAL PRESS CLUB ON VIOLENCE AGAINST JOURNALISTS YESTERDAY
That disgustful action was directed against speech freedom aiming to hamper
unbiased information in Armenia and to reflect the reality in the anomalous
mirror.
National Press Club condemns the violence demanding the Authorities and the
law-enforcement bodies who neglected their professional obligations to take
urgent steps to punish the pogrom-makers and to exclude such accidents in
the future or else violence may spread among our public.
In the 21st century speech freedom has no alternative in Armenia, too, and
the Armenian journalists must strive for it. NPC calls upon its colleagues
who abet the thugs by distorting what happened, to respect their
professional duty.
—
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

A1 Plus | 14:51:39 | 06-04-2004 | Social |
STATEMENT BY ONNIK KRIKORIAN
At the rally on April 5 Armenian from Diaspora Onnik Krikorian, press
photographer of “Hetq” Internet site of Investigating Journalists’
Association, was beaten while performing his professional duties.
He has appeared today with a statement. Here we represent it.
“In the aftermath of yesterday’s attack on journalists and photographers
covering the rally organized by the National Unity Party of Artashes
Geghamian, I am obliged to issue a statement regarding the events that
resulted in a number of media representatives being attacked by men
identified as working for the authorities.
In particular, I am concerned by coverage of the event on state-sponsored
Public TV. In their reports, Public Television — which is broadcast via
satellite to the Diaspora — lay the blame on the opposition for the attacks
despite all eye witness accounts identifying the men as having the
protection of the state.
As a British citizen who was hit in the face by one of the thugs and who
approached two policemen who witnessed events but refused to intervene, I
can state quite categorically in the instances that I witnessed at least,
that nobody in the crowd responded to the provocation. Moreover, it was
plainly clear that the group of men were there with the full knowledge and
protection of the Armenian police.
In light of Public TV’s attempts to propagandize yesterday’s events as
evidence of violence by those attending an otherwise peaceful rally, the
authorities must respect the role of journalists in this period of
confrontation. I urge Public TV to report the facts and not to disseminate
propaganda that they know to be untrue in order to fulfil the orders of the
state and to escalate an already tense situation.
In particular, it should be noted that Public TV did not report the presence
of half a dozen men believed to be hired muscle despite the large number of
people, including foreign citizens, that saw them attack journalists and
citizens alike without any provocation.
Journalists are not parties to this conflict between the opposition and the
government. Journalists are responsible for covering the events and I call
upon both sides and especially the police to respect that role”.
—

PRESS RELEASE
Land and Culture Organization
P.O. Box 1386
Hoboken, NJ 07030
Contact: Raffi Niziblian
Tel: 1-888-LCO-1555
E-mail: [email protected]
Web:
LCO IS ACCEPTING APPLICATIONS FOR ITS 2004 SUMMER CAMPAIGNS
The Land and Culture Organization (LCO) has begun recruiting
volunteers for its 2004 summer campaigns.
Established in France in 1977, the Land and Culture Organization is an
international, non-profit organization that has undertaken a variety
of challenging activities ranging from restoration projects of
national historical monuments, to social and economic assistance
programs for Armenian communities living on ancestral lands. The LCO
creates enriching opportunities for men and women of all backgrounds
and interests to directly participate in the process of getting back
to their roots, bridging gaps between past and present and forging
links with today and tomorrow. For over 27 years, Armenians of all
ages have participated in LCO summer campaigns from North and South
America, Europe, Australia, Armenia and the Middle East and
experienced their ancestral homeland beyond the hotels and tourist
spots in Yerevan. They meet and work with local villagers and interact
with their land in a way that deepens their understanding and bonds
them to their heritage.
The LCO first began holding restoration projects in the Aterpatakan
region of northwest Iran and eventually spread its activities to
Kessab in Syria, Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh. This year, the LCO is
proud to be celebrating 15 years of activity in Armenia. A few of our
past projects were the reconstruction of the St. Astvadzazin Church
(Holy Mother of God) in Gogaran, the renovation of the St. Minas
Church in Tatev and the restoration of the Saghmosavank Monastery in
the Ashtarak Region. The LCO has also completed social assistance and
economic projects such as the building of solar fruit dryers in
Madrasa (now called Dprevan) and last year in Ayroum, a refugee
village located in the Northern part of the country near the Georgian
border.
The LCO has also been very active in the Nagorno Karabakh Republic
(NKR) since 1997, when it adopted the war-torn village of
Karintak. This village, situated below the rock on which the town of
Shushi sits, has earned the reputation of being a heroic village,
particularly during the clashes for the liberation of Shushi by
Armenian forces. The four-year project included the renovation of
their cultural center, the village church, its kindergarten and
finally its school. Since 2001, the LCO has renovated vital parts of
the Shushi polyclinic and General Hospital, including the Delivery
Room, the Maternity Ward and several hospital rooms. In 2003, the LCO
volunteers undertook the renovation of the water pipeline which
provides the hospital with running water and the septic system.
The work sites and projects approved for 2004 during its Annual
Assembly held in Paris in February of this year, the International
Union of Land and Culture Organizations selected (1) the
reconstruction of the school in the refugee village of Shatvan located
in the Vartenis region of Armenia; (2) the continuing effort to
renovate the operating rooms of the Shushi Hospital, and (3),
continuation of our ongoing restoration work in Kessab, Syria.
The reconstruction of the village school in the refugee community of
Shatvan located to the east of Lake Sevan in the province of
Gegharkunik is one of the 34 villages in the Vartenis area that was
predominantly settled by Azeris during the soviet years. As of late
1988, the village of Shatvan has been repopulated by Armenian refugees
who have arrived from 33 different parts of Azerbaijan. The total
number of the current population is 834. The main concern is to
provide the basics for young families to help them settle down
permanently, and as such the village school is a major
priority. Currently it has 114 students with a staff of 20. The
building is in a very dangerous state. The roof is completely damaged
and parts of the floor on both levels are to be replaced. The
renovation of this building demands immediate attention.
The second project is in Nagorno Karabagh. There, LCO will continue
its commitment to the Regional Hospital of Shushi. This picturesque
town which had a population of 17,000 inhabitants before the war, is
now home to only 3000 people. While this is a huge building, it only
needs to cater to 3000-5000 people. In consultation with the chief
physician, Dr Vigen Khachadryan, and the Minister of health Zoya
Balayan, it was decided that only the East Wing of the hospital would
be restored and all the wards would be concentrated there. This
summer, it is expected that our volunteers will renovate the operating
ward.
As for our third site, we will continue our restoration work of the
houses in Kessab that represent typical Armenian architecture. Last
year, twenty-five LCO volunteers renovated a house that is destined to
become an Armenian ethnographic museum. Kessab is a small
Armenian-populated town in Syria, near the Mediterranean Sea. It dates
back to the Cilician Kingdom. The LCO has been holding campaigns in
Kessab for the last 14 years. For 2004, LCO will complete this
project. The campaign in Kessab is held only during the month of
August.
We have already started accepting volunteer applications for these
campaigns and invite volunteers to join us and take a month off this
summer to “Explore – Dream – Discover” Armenia. The effort is
voluntary, the results are far reaching! The deadline to apply for the
campaigns of July and August is May 21, 2004. You will be able to
download all application information and forms from our website or by
asking us to mail you a volunteer package. All applicants must be a
minimum of 18 years of age to be considered. We are also looking to
fill two site leader positions. These positions are open only to
returning LCO participants. For information about applying for a site
leader position, please contact the Projects Coordinator at
[email protected]. The deadline for these positions is April
30, 2004.
For more information about the Land and Culture Organization an dour
activities in the Aterpatakan region, Kessab, Armenia and Nagorno
Karabagh, please visit or contact us at
1-888-LCO-1555 or write to [email protected].

A1 Plus | 16:01:27 | 06-04-2004 | Politics |
SERJ SARGSSYAN’S BROTHER’S BODY-GUARDS BEAT JOURNALISTS
“Body-guards of Sashik Sargssyan, brother of Serj Sargssyan, were the main
provokers of yesterday meeting”, “National Unity” Party Chair Artashes
Geghamyan announced at the press conference in the party office.
According to him, the body-guards of other oligarchs were “just watchers”.
Mr Geghamyan has appealed to the Embassies in Armenia over the incidents
occurred in “Nairi” Cinema yesterday. In the appeal he accused “the most
intimate oligarchs of Armenian President” who have attacked journalists.
“All these are the logical continuation of Poghos Poghosyan’s murder by
Robert Kocharyan’s body-guards”, Geghamyan said in the letter to the
Embassies.
He announced that the Armenian Authorities merged with the criminal
elements. “We expect support of USA and Russia in the situations we have”,
Geghamyan said at the end of the letter.
He added that the arrests are senseless since Authorities arrest even those
who have held the flag of Armenia at the rallies.
—
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

A1 Plus | 16:10:49 | 06-04-2004 | Politics |
DASHNAKS READY FOR CONCESSIONS
Dashnaktsutyun party issued Monday a statement with package of proposals to
the opposition in it.
Dashnaks offer opposition representatives membership in the
president-affiliated Security Commettee headed by Defence Ministry Serge
Sargssyan as one of the ways out of political turmoil in Armenia.
Dashnaktsutyun party board member Armen Rustamyan and Dashnaktsutyun
parliamentary fraction member Levon Lazarian answered the questions
journalists put to them.
Q:Was the statement coordinated with the coalition?
A.R.: This is a call for dialogue, which is already offered by the coalition
other member parties.
Q: Do you view yesterday’s arrest of Republic party member Suren Surenyants,
attack on the head of the party’s Ararat office and today’s detention of six
opposition activists as a call for dialogue?
L.M.: If the opposition has no intention to abandon its ambitions of
obtaining power, it should dictate political situation.
Q: What way Dashnaktsutyun will act in the event of facing confrontation
with people?
A.R.: People don’t want confrontation. Dashnaks intend to do their best to
prevent confrontation. If we fail to avoid it, we will consider other
solutions.
Q: Don’t you think that deadlock situation is created?
A.R.: Incompatibility run high and tomorrow we can grow even worse. All
possible efforts should be made to prevent any clash.
Q: If clashes occur, don’t you think they can escalate into civil war?
A.R.: I don’t think confrontation can turn into civil war. There are some
rational ideas in the opposition stance but, at the same time, there is a
hard-line approach. Authorities consider the opposition as revolutionary
force. In all countries, the authorities’ main tool is the law. Our current
constitution gives the authorities sweeping powers while the opposition
activists put themselves above the law.
Q: If the coalition rejects your proposals, then what will be your attitude?
A.R.: Possible agreement could speed up our country’s development.
Q: Is it possible you will quit the coalition in case of failure to reach
accord?
A.R.: We are not fastened with the current status quo. Dashnaktsutyun party
is eager for compromise and ready to prove that right now.
Q: Asked about the idea of appointing opposition members to any post,
Defence Minister answered he found it ridiculous. How you imagine an
opposition representative in Security Committee?
A.R.: Any step will be well thought-out. Today’s situation needs concessions
from at least one side.
Q: Over what issues you are ready for compromise?
A.R.: Anticorruption campaign and constitutional reforms.
—

Forgetfulness and Denial
04/06/2004
In my book, Civilization and Its Enemies, I wrote that the West is
suffering from forgetfulness. After reading and listening to some of
the responses from the Right to Fallujah, I am inclined to believe
that I was being an optimist in my assessment. The problem, it is
beginning to appear, is not forgetfulness, but denial. It is not that
we in the West have forgotten what our enemy is like; it is that we
refuse to see what he is like even when it is being shown right before
our eyes, as was the case with the atrocities in Fallujah. Just as
the editorial board of The New York Times, on the second anniversary
of 9/11, wanted to persuade us that 9/11 was simply a fluke, unlikely
to happen again, so many on those on the opposite side of the
political spectrum have wanted to persuade us that Fallujah was a
similar fluke. Just as the left wants us to think that 9/11 tells us
nothing about the nature of the enemy we are facing, so now the right
wants us to think the exact same thing about Fallujah. For both
parties, it has become politically necessary to deny theevidence of
their senses in order to bolster the ideology of their own pet
fantasies.
“Fallujah was contrived. It was all the fault of the cameramen. It was
a cunning tactic used in the hope of causing reprisals.”
It is not as if the savagery so endemic to the Arab world needs new
apologists; the Left, all around the world, have been working night
and dayto make excuses for precisely the kind of horror that was
enacted in Fallujah. Eachtime a Palestinian elects to martyr himself
in the name of Allah and to murder innocent Israelis in the process,
there is someone to tell us that this is the only way that the
Palestinians can express their desperation — though oddly enough no
other desperate group, such as the Armenians or the Jews, has ever
chosen to express their desperation by encouraging their children to
blow themselves up.
The apologists of the Left argue that 9/11 is a natural response to
the wickedness of the West. The apologists of the Right argue that
Fallujah is a response to the wickedness of Saddam Hussein. On both
readings, neither event is seen as evidence of a profound
civilizational chasm between us and them — a chasm so wide and deep
that it will inevitably swallow even the best-intentioned efforts to
bridge it.
Both sides of the political spectrum today have developed cottage
industries designed to minimize the crisis that we are facing, and to
minimize it by denying the plain and self-evident fact that we in the
West can no longer even imagine doing what the men and boys of the
Arab world dream of doing. 9/11,the suicide bombings, Fallujah —
these are not flukes or isolated events. Theyare the sordid hopes and
aspirations of literally millions of young Muslims around the world.
“Only four men were killed in Fallujah.” What is so significant about
the death of four men?
In reading these words I was reminded of an article written by Father
Andrew Greeley after 9/11. Only two thousand people died on 9/11, he
said. What is that compared to the forty thousand Americans who are
killed each year on our highways? We accept those deaths as a matter
of routine. Why not these two thousand? In a couple of years, he
wrote, who will really remember them?
In the case of Fallujah, the passage of years was unnecessary in the
minds of many on the Right. A few hours seemed to do the trick.
And so, on both Right and Left, there are astute minds always ready to
deny that the Enemy exists, always prepared to minimize his cruelty
and his utter indifference to human life, always quick to explain away
acts of the most horrendous savagery, always willing to sacrifice
judgment in the name of party line.
Our collective refusal to face up to the nature of our enemy imperils
the future of the civilization that it has taken centuries upon
centuries to achieve, and those who contribute to this refusal by
minimizing the brutality and ruthlessness of Fallujah are acting no
different from those who minimize the brutality and ruthlessness of
9/11.
The American obsession with putting partisan politics above all else
is robbing us of the only thing that can save us: the will to see the
world asit is, and not as we wish it to be.
Lee Harris recently wrote for TCS about The Lesson of Fallujah. He is
author of Civilization and Its Enemies.
Copyright © 2004 Tech Central Station –

[03-04-2004 ‘Karabagh Conflict’]
————————————————- ———————
BY CYPRUS EXPERIENCE?
Source : `Echo’ newspaper (Azerbaijan)
Author: R. ORUJEV
There is an opinion in Turkish media that Washington is ready to
publicize the `Cyprus option’ of settlement for the territorial
problem of Azerbaijan
By May 1, international community anticipates final resolution of the
Cyprus issue. As `Radical’ Turkish newspaper reported yesterday, the
current option of Cyprus problem settlement is considered by official
Washington and European Union as quite applicable for other conflicts
of the Middle East, in particular Mountainous Karabagh. `Radical’
newspaper reports that Washington has `more than one aim in Cyprus
problem settlement”. Resolution of the conflict in Eastern
Mediterranean may serve as an example for the conflicts between Israel
and Palestine, Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the newspaper states
that Armenian Diaspora in USA may serve as an impediment. At the same
time, the author of the article asserts, `Cyprus settlement might help
USA in making Armenians change their minds”.
It is common knowledge that EU and USA worked out a joint plan for
conflict settlement in Europe. Initially it was planned to be
pre-tested in Cyprus and later to apply the experience of successful
resolution of a rooted dispute to Armenian-Azerbaijani and
Georgian-Abkhaz conflicts. The idea rests on the proposal initiated by
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
The Cyprus example suggests the following: united Cyprus emerges as `a
bizonal, bicommunal federation’. Greek Cypriotes will get the
reunified island and regain part of the territory under their control;
Turkish Cypriotes will be ensured autonomous territory. The main
attraction of this plan is accession to the European Union, right of
the citizens for work and residence in any EU country, as well as
funds provided to post-conflict parties through European Union
assistance programs.
In case of Karabagh conflict, it is probably something close to
`common state’ that is meant – Baku rejected this concept at the time,
as you know. The bait, as in case of Cyprus settlement, is most likely
the same – European integration, European money, etc.
But there are doubts that the European Union pays as much attention to
Mountainous Karabagh problem as to the Cyprus issue. The Cyprus
problem certainly raises concern of the Brussels because it is purely
a European issue for Greece is involved in this conflict, and is a EU
member. Besides, Turkey and Greece are members of NATO, and
aggravation of conflict between them may have direct consequences for
EU.
The Cyprus option may hardly be applicable in our case since the
countries of our region are not even included in the list of
candidates for accession to EU.
Among other things, as `Echo’ already reported, at the Istanbul summit
of 1999 the idea of immediate integration of Azerbaijan and Armenia as
NATO members was put forward, in case they quickly resolve the
Karabagh problem. At that time, Turkish President Suleyman Demirel
proposed his Caucasus stability pact. He also considered those options
for resolution that are now suggested to Cyprus. The three states of
the Caucasus were proposed to withdraw all foreign armed forces from
their territories, to sign a security agreement among themselves,
after which EU and USA were to provide vital investments (in millions
of dollars) in the development of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian
economies. Russia and Turkey were to act as parties ensuring agreement
compliance. Initially, Armenia accepted this plan but later evidently
under Russia’s pressure, refused to sign the pact. This document was
very similar to the Cyprus option of settlement; it also contained the
factor of encouragement for the parties to the conflict.
It is interesting how seriously the Foreign Office of Azerbaijan
considers such settlement options of our territorial conflict. Also
whether the activity of RA MFA pays due attention to studying foreign
experience in conflict resolution.
Unfortunately, MFA press service failed to provide a more or less
satisfactory answer to these questions. As press secretary of the
Ministry, Metin Mirza declared to `Echo’, “the officials directly
involved in Karabagh conflict settlement need to be addressed in this
case”. However it is always very difficult to directly contact these
persons…
“For the time being, even the attempts to settle the situation in the
Cyprus did not succeed’, former Ambassador to China Tamerlan Garaev
says. `And commenting on how the Cyprus option is applicable for
Mountainous Karabagh conflict is no easy task for present. Will this
plan really work in Cyprus and lead to the results aspired for by the
parties?’
According to the expert, “The situation we have is somewhat
different. In our case, it is not a sort of enclave that is meant. The
point is that a war broke out between the two countries, as a result
of which Armenia, taking advantage of USSR disintegration and absence
of troops in Azerbaijan, occupied part of our state territory. I do
not know how the Cyprus situation may be related to the development of
events in our region”.
As for the programs of large financial assistance to the parties of
the conflict and guarantees for their future accession to EU,
T. Garaev holds that this instrument of influence should primarily be
directed at Armenia, “at the attempt to convince Armenia to take more
constructive position”. “The point is how successful will be the
option of urging Armenia towards peaceful resolution of Karabagh
conflict on the part of USA and EU, taking into consideration
territorial integrity of Azerbaijan? It is not easy to discuss, yet
basically possible because in accordance to commonly accepted
international standards, Karabagh conflict resolution is possible only
through ensuring territorial integrity of our country”, the expert
concluded.
[01-04-2004 ‘Economic Development’]
———————————————————————-
GORDIAN KNOT OF CASPIAN ENERGY RESOURCES
(abridged)
Source : `Golos Armenii’ newspaper (Armenia)
Author: Edward Safarian, Master of Energy
Politics, Delaware University, USA
For the past 10 years, the Caspian Sea has been the focus of attention
for world superpowers and large energy companies. It interests experts
in different spheres – political scientists, economists, power
engineering specialists – due to its abundance of natural resources,
oil and gas fields in the first place. There are certain opinions that
the Caspian is rich in hydrocarbon resources, which may be competitive
with the oil deposits of the Persian Gulf. Others assert that the
attempts of international energy companies, to get multimillion
profits out of oil and gas extraction from the bottom of the lake,
resemble a venture similar to the `Gold Rush’ in Wild West at the
beginning of the past century.
The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle. For instance, Energy
Information Administration (EIA) of US Energy Department estimates the
official oil deposits in the Caspian at 10 milliard barrels. Still 233
milliard more barrels, as the source states, may potentially be
discovered. It is to be noted, that EIA has a reputation of a too
optimistic information source among the experts. According to USA
Geological Inspection (the most reliable source for the experts),
there is 50% confidence that Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian
contains up to 5.8 milliard barrels of oil and about 68 trillion cubic
feet of gas. Besides, American expert Lagerer asserts that among
developing CIS countries and states there is a tradition of
deliberately inflating data on oil and gas deposits to attract foreign
capital in the country.
In expert evaluations, construction of Baku-Ceyhan main export
pipeline, enabling to transport Azerbaijani and potentially Kazakh and
Russian oil to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, will be economically
viable if in the course of pipeline exploitation no less than 6
milliard barrels of oil are pumped through it. According to
information stated, there is 50% possibility of Azerbaijan’s having
these oil resources. In other words, if exclusively Azerbaijani oil is
pumped through the pipeline, the completed project will finally cover
only its prime cost. The construction of Baku-Ceyhan pipeline may
bring profit only in case Kazakh and/or Russian oil is transported
through it. Then why Western companies and `British Petroleum’ (BP) in
the first place, as the main investor and operator of the project, are
eager to have this dubious project implemented?
First, BP, despite its name, is essentially an American company. In
USA this company develops activity equal to the United Kingdom in its
scale and, similarly to all large companies, it is dependent on the
political forces of this country. This dependence became more obvious
after George Bush’s victory in 2000 USA presidential elections; his
family has old ties with oil business. After accession to the White
House, Bush administration sharply reduced financing of projects on
alternative energy sources and started to support large projects on
extraction and transportation of hydrocarbons. One of the instances of
such projects, provoking public discontent in USA, is extraction of
the deposits on the territory of national natural reserve in
Alaska. Despite the fact that the initiative of constructing
Baku-Ceyhan pipeline came from Bill Clinton administration, yet it is
during George Bush’s government that this project got a chance for
implementation.
One of Bush administration’s top priorities was provision of new
routes of oil import (the portion of imported oil in USA amounts to
over 55%) and decreasing the dependence of the country on supply from
such unstable countries- exporters as Columbia, Venezuela and
Nigeria. Therefore, Bush administration supported even such
inefficient projects as Baku-Ceyhan, placing the burden of financing
on the dependent oil companies. In any case, oil giants will pay off
only about 30% of the project costs, while the rest of financing will
be provided by international structures – World Bank and European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development. State Oil Company of Azerbaijani
Republic (SOCAR), BP and ExxonMobil already expressed their desire to
finance their shares.
It is now the turn of international financial structures that do not
yet hasten to provide funds for implementation of this project, whose
costs surpass 3 milliard USD. Certain experts even think that pipeline
construction costs will be much higher than previously expected,
amounting to 4 milliards. The decision-makers, responsible for
provision of credits, are primarily concerned over the circumstance
that the pipeline is very close to the hotbeds of open ethnic
conflicts – such as Mountainous Karabagh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia. One
more crisis point, Ajaria, was added in the list. Besides, a
considerable part of the pipeline passes through Eastern regions of
Turkey, mostly populated by the Kurds not very loyally disposed to the
Turkish authorities. Inspired by the success of their compatriots in
Iraq, they are ready for resistance. In all these regions, military
operations may potentially be resumed, which cannot but impede regular
exploitation of the pipeline.
But the truth is that American authorities, which are most interested
din this project implementation, are not very much concerned with
these circumstances. The priority for them is getting one more
alternative route for import of the oil so essential for its
economy. According to USDA special representative in the Caspian
region, Steven Mann at the conference devoted to Caspian energy
resources (New Orleans in 2003), this project is more political than
economic. Apparently, USA is least interested in economic profit of
the countries participants of the project or the countries on whose
territory it will be implemented.
One more interesting factor is that Azerbaijan has considerable
reserves of natural gas, in particular Shakh Deniz deposit, which
contains up to 1 trillion cubic meters of gas according to expert
estimates. This volume of gas is sufficient to be commercially
attractive for Western energy companies. But there are certain nuances
here. It is a disadvantage for Azerbaijan that this deposit is located
in the region where various countries have much larger gas reserves,
which they would willingly export on the world energy markets.
Suffice it to say that cumulative gas reserves of Russia and Iran
equal almost 50% of world reserves of this energy
resource. Turkmenistan, where the ratio of gas reserves to the volume
of production is 180 years, does not lag far behind.
It is to be noted that the characteristic of gas as an energy source
considerably differs from that of oil. And if the portion of
transportation in the oil cost, delivered to the immediate consumer,
does not surpass 10%, allowing to transport this product at farther
distances with no considerable expenses, then in case of gas this
portion is higher than 40%. Therefore, usually natural gas is not
transported at long distances from those regions where it is produced.
The exception is a technology of liquefying natural gas when it is
cooled up to 160 degrees and as a result passes to liquid phase, which
allows transporting gas in special tankers at long distances,
similarly to oil. But this option is not acceptable for Azerbaijan
since it is common knowledge that this country has no access to high
seas, making this type of transportation a complex task. To make
things worse, the technology itself (terminals for gas conversion, as
well as special tankers which are far more expensive than oil)
requires tangible investments.
It was initially planned that the gas extracted in Shakh Deniz deposit
will be delivered to Turkey, where economic boom was expected, and as
a result – sharp increase of gas consumption. However, the
expectations of Turkish economists and BOTAS state oil company were
not justified. For the past few years, economic recession and decrease
of GDP were observed in Turkey. For this reason the Turkish company,
having already signed the agreement with `Gasprom’ on the supply of
gas through `Blue Stream’ gas pipeline via Black Sea bottom, even
turned to the Russian side with a request for decrease of the supply
volume. Thus, the economic expediency of Azerbaijani gas supply to
Turkey is out of the question. At best, Turkey may serve as a transit
country for Azerbaijani gas, whose streams will flow to Europe, though
this option is hardly likely, given the mentioned specifics of gas
transportation economy.
In conclusion, it needs to be sated that Azerbaijan possesses
hydrocarbon resources, which through advantageous development of
events on world energy markets, may yield profits for this
country. However, too many factors come to prove that these profits
will be much lower contrary to the expectations of our neighbors and
those in our country who are too much concerned over fast enrichment
of the Azerbaijanis and, consequently, over the possibility of
breaking the balance in the region.
[01-04-2004 ‘Region’]
———————————————————————-
WHO WILL BENEFIT FROM CYPRUS PROBLEM RESOLUTION AND HOW?
Source : `Radikal’ newspaper (Turkey)
Author: Murat Yetkin
Greek Cypriots are most reluctant to see the problem resolved. The
settlement is beneficial for EU, USA and Russia.
Not far ahead is the outcome of the disputes on Cyprus problem
resolution. To discuss the current state of affairs, Ankara convened a
session of the Ministry of National Security again. Conferences of
similar type will be conducted in other capitals as well. It really
makes sense for everyone to discuss what expectations and prospects
they have from resolving one of today’s most acute problems.
CYPRUS GREEK STATE: It is the side least of all supporting Cyprus
problem resolution to be adopted on May 1, 2004. Despite the economic
and political embargo imposed by the Turkish part of the island, there
is a certain progress. Although no option of dividing the island is
proposed, the Greek side already feels comfortable as a member of EU.
However, the issue of relations with the Turkish part of the island
and the international pressure induced by it are still on the agenda.
CYPRUS TURKISH STATE: The greatest expectations of Lefkosia are
getting international recognition, accession to EU, preserving the
guarantees of Turkey and the status quo. The position of President
Rauf Denktas on the referendum appears to have no future for
present. In case the people approve of the agreement, the coalition
between Mehmet Ali Talat and Serdar Denktas may prove to be the
victorious party.
GREECE: If the sides do not come to agreement, Greek Cypriotes will
become members of EU, and the Athens will keep the promise given by
the Greek side to Lefkosia. But in this case EU may be placed under
still greater pressure having problems not only with division of the
island but with alienation of Turkey as well. If no solution is found
for Cyprus problem, it will have consequences for the whole Aegean
region.
TURKEY: Stable resolution of the Cyprus problem will be advantageous
for Turkey from various aspects. In the first place, this option will
allow removing the greatest obstacle for Turkey’s accession to
EU. Second, it will prove that Turkey keeps to the framework of the
European culture of political agreement. And it is has much to do with
Copenhagen criteria. Third, Turkey will be able to more efficiently
use all the potential of its foreign policy directed at Cyprus in the
past 30 years. Middle East, Balkans and the Caucasus will have a
chance to take more active steps for consolidating their independence.
ENGLAND: England, one of the three guarantor states in Cyprus, will be
more secure in case of simultaneous accession of Greek and Turkish
sides to EU. The Cyprus problem will become a part of EU system as a
whole. If this process eventually ends up with Turkey’s accession to
EU, stability and security will be ensured on southern borders of
Europe.
EUROPEAN UNION: The Cyprus problem resolution will undermine the
positions of those who are against Turkish EU membership or view this
prospect with certain fear. It will also strengthen the position of
Turkish supporters. Thus there will be an impetus to Germany’s
conception by which Muslim and Soviet Turkey, becoming a part of
Europe and adopting European values, will serve as a sort of bridge
between the Old World and many powerful Muslim countries. France,
with its ties enlarged, will also strengthen its positions. With
Turkish influence in EU, Europe’s southern and eastern borders will be
expanded; consequently it will become a more integral and strong
contingent.
USA: Washington is one of the capitals to receive most benefit from
Cyprus problem resolution. Such an outcome of solving this political
problem, in USA opinion, may serve as an example for settling
conflicts between Israel and Palestine, also between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Israel is one more proponent of this scenario. However, in
case of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, the Armenian Diaspora in USA is
the greatest obstacle to `world for security’ principle applied in
Cyprus. At the same time, any option on Cyprus may result in the fact
that USA, with Turkey’s and most likely Russia’s assistance, will
induce Armenia to comply with this plan.
RUSSIA: Moscow will benefit from the stable and predictable policy of
Turkey in the Caucasus, which is one of the most problematic regions
for Russia. Strengthening of democracy in Turkey, necessitated by this
country’s possible accession to EU, will contribute to
it. Consequently, Cyprus problem resolution will help Russia defend
its most vital interests.
—
Yerevan Press Club of Armenia, ‘Yeni Nesil’ Journalists’ Union of
Azerbaijan and Association of Diplomacy Correspondents of Turkey
present ‘Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey: Journalist Initiative-2002’
Project. As a part of the project web site has
been designed, featuring the most interesting publications from the
press of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey on issues of mutual
concern. The latest updates on the site are weekly delivered to the
subscribers.

New York Armenian Students’ Association
PO Box 7876
New York, NY 10116-4634
Web:
Contact: [email protected]
April 6, 2004
Contact: New York ASA: [email protected]
WHAT: NY ASA and St. Vartan Armenian Cathedral presents:
Professor RICHARD G. HOVANNISIAN, UCLA
`LOOKING BACKWARD, MOVING FORWARD’
WHERE: Vartan Hall, St. Vartan Armenian Cathedral
630 Second Avenue, New York, NY 10016
WHEN: Wednesday, April 7, 2004, 7:00- 9:00 PM
FEES: Students/ASA members free
Donations to the ASA are welcome!
New York, NY – The New York Armenian Students’ Association and St. Vartan
Armenian Cathedral are honored to have Professor Richard G. Hovannisian of
the University of California, Los Angeles, speak on Wednesday evening, April
7, on the subject of his most recent publication, Looking Backward, Moving
Forward -a discussion on the Armenian Genocide, entailing the question of
how to move forward while not losing sight of the past, namely
universalizing the Armenian experience.
Professor Hovannisian is well known to the Armenian community as the Holder
of the Armenian Educational Foundation Chair in Modern Armenian History at
UCLA and the founder and three-time president of the Society for Armenian
Studies. He is the author of numerous works on the Republic of Armenia,
1918-1920, the Armenian Genocide, and the historic Western Armenian
provinces. Hovannisian has received many honors for his scholarship, civic
activities, and advancement of Armenian Studies. He serves on the board of
directors of nine scholarly and civic organizations and has made numerous
television and radio appearances on issues relating to the Armenian people
and Armenian, Near Eastern, and Caucasian history. In 1990 he was elected to
the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, has been awarded honorary
doctoral degrees by Yerevan State University and Artsakh State University,
and has received encyclicals and medals from Their Holinesses, the
Catholicoses of Holy Etcmiadzin and of the Great House of Cilicia. Mort
recently, Dr. Hovannisian served as the historical consultant for the
National Geographic Magazine feature article on Armenia.
For more information about the NY ASA please visit
For more information about St. Vartan Armenian Cathedral please visit us
online at

A1 Plus | 14:10:21 | 06-04-2004 | Social |
ARRESTS CONTINUE
Yesterday at 6:30 PM after Artashes Geghamyan’s meeting with the electorate
on the way from Yerevan to Shamshadin people in civil clothes stopped the
car of Serjik Ayvazyan, Chair of Shamshadin branch of “Republic” Party and
arrested him.
The same party member Vardan Sahakyan and the driver were arrested, too.
They were taken to an unknown place and it is not known yet where they are.
Last night the arrested heads of Arabkir, Zeytun and Ajapnyak branches of
“Republic” Party were released.
—