Armenian-Russian relations are now in the stage of an open and aggressive public crisis, where alliance ethics has given way to direct ultimatums. The mistrust accumulated over the years between Yerevan and Moscow has gone out of control, turning into an open geopolitical confrontation. We are witnessing a situation where the perception of a strategic partnership is crumbling, and the communication between the parties has turned into an exchange of remote accusations, which indicates the degradation of relations and a new, unpredictable milestone.

The peak of expression of this crisis was the last drastic statement of Vladimir Putin, which was sounded as a last warning. Armenia should make its final choice between EAEU and EU. However, the remarkable thing is that the RA authorities declare that they have no plans to leave the EAEU. RA Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stated that when the moment comes, when they understand that Armenia has to make a choice between the EU and EAEU, they should make that choice. “There is nothing new in this matter. Currently, we are a member of EAEU, we continue our activities there. When the time comes, we will do it,” he said.

However, the Russian president’s direct emphasis that the issue of Armenia should become the subject of discussion at the upcoming EAEU meeting is nothing more than an attempt to put the RA authorities in front of collective responsibility, making it clear that the pursuit of the European vector will have a concrete economic and political price. This is a public challenge to the Armenian authorities, who hope that Russia cannot pull Armenia out of the EAEU due to the insufficiency of legal regulations, as well as the legal regulation of making decisions by consensus in the EAEU.

All this predicts a situation where the Armenian-Russian bilateral tension can turn into a systemic crisis for the entire EAEU. If Moscow decides to take tough actions and brings to the agenda the issue of the expediency of Armenia’s membership or removal from the structure, the parties will find themselves in a difficult political situation. Since the EAEU is based on the principles of economic integration, the absence or uncertainty of mechanisms for forced removal of a member state can create legal uncertainty.

The crux of the problem here is the consensus model of decision-making in the EAEU, which can turn into an explosive tool. If Russia tries to give legal force to the restrictive decisions against Armenia, and Yerevan, using its right to vote, tries to block possible decisions, the lack of consensus will not only not allow solving the issue of Armenia in the EAEU, but also the EAEU will face an institutionally intractable problem. This will be the turning point of the Armenian-Russian crisis, where the most serious bilateral political disagreement will affect the viability of the largest integration project in the post-Soviet area.

These developments suggest that Armenian-Russian relations are approaching a turning point, where an absolute political impasse may develop. If Moscow tries to move the issue of removing Armenia from the EAEU to a practical dimension, both the bilateral relations and the structure itself may end up in legal limbo. EAEU does not have clearly developed mechanisms for unilaterally or forcibly expelling a member state, Russia’s attempt to “punish” Yerevan for its foreign policy choices may run into the union’s own statutory problems, creating an unprecedented crisis.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the RA authorities want to take the path of European integration, to deepen political cooperation and relations with the EU, without leaving the EAEU.

According to him, this model was most likely chosen because the EU does not promise membership, or even if it does promise, it is not possible to say whether this membership is possible or not. Having understood all this, according to the analyst, Armenia does not want to leave the EAEU, which is a useful structure for the Republic of Armenia.

“Armenia’s calculations are understandable, but it is also clear that this is not an acceptable model and will not be for Russia, which has always responded to other attempts to choose the path of European integration in the post-Soviet space. In the case of Armenia, the Russian side simply calls for an orientation, a choice. Here it is important to note the change in Russia’s tactics. If in the past Moscow used clear pressure mechanisms, today it has switched to political pragmatism. Russia’s statements that Armenia should choose between the EU and EAEU prove that Russia has stopped considering Armenia as an “unconditional ally” and has switched to relations based on interests. This means that Moscow no longer keeps on its side those who do not share its geopolitical agenda. he draws a line by making it clear that the European choice will mean the end of all Russian economic privileges,” the analyst said.

He believes that Moscow’s choice of the EAEU platform as a place for discussions shows that Russia does not hesitate to discuss the issue, because political clarity is more important.

“I think this is not another freezing of relations, but a systemic problem, where Yerevan’s attempts to maintain economic ties, without full political agreement, will face Russia’s harsh response. I don’t think it’s possible to find some new relationship formula. It should be noted that they have changed, the Russian Federation already notes this and offers to discuss this issue. From that point of view, the upcoming EAEU meeting will be important and it will become clear what opinions the EAEU member states have on this issue,” he said.

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From the very beginning of the Baku “trial” with fabricated accusations against the former military-political leadership of Artsakh, we have warned that it is not actually against individuals, but against the Republic of Armenia, the Armed Forces of Armenia, and the Armenian people.

And this claim was strengthened at every “judicial” session, when the military actions carried out by the Armenian side during the first Artsakh war became the subject of investigation. operations and episodes when was referred to Punitive response of the Armenian side to the April four days of 2016 and the July battles of 2020, under the former authorities of the Republic of Armenia actions, when the accusatory arrow in the context of the 44-day war was correcting The former military leadership of RA was guilty of the “Ganja incidents”. in order The 44-day military leadership, names of military personnel were published, even: made public The secret orders of the former chiefs of the General Staff of the RA Armed Forces, because after 44 days the archive of the Defense Ministry was not removed from Artsakh.

In our articles related to the “trial” in Baku, we wrote that Aliyev was sent to the court “victims” who testified against the former military-political leadership of Artsakh, the former presidents of the Republic of Armenia and the military leadership of the 44-day period, i.e. the Republic of Armenia and the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia, trying to prove that Armenia “stepped out” of the laws of war and “targeted” the civilian population, and during the first war, Azerbaijani prisoners were also “subjected to violence and exploitation”.

And today the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan Davit Babayan sent him from Baku prison in the message confirmed all our claims, and a few days before that it was also confirmed by the former chairman of the Armenian National Assembly Davit Ishkhanyan.

In addition to this, they also spoke about the fact that the court in Baku did not allow them to finish what they had to say in court, moreover, there were cases when they were not allowed to intervene during the testimony of the sent “victims”. such a case was In the case of the former commander of the Armed Forces, General Levon Mnatsakanyan.

We still do not mention the fact that the Baku propaganda machine did not publicize the unfavorable questions and speeches of the former military and political leadership of Artsakh, or did it in a distorted, out of context manner, such cases were related to General Davit Manukyan and Davit Babayan.

In particular, during one of the “court” sessions, when the Azerbaijani military operations against Artsakh on September 19-20, 2023, which led to the complete depopulation of Artsakh, were discussed, the Azerbaijani citizen Ragif Aliyev testified that he was injured as a result of the targeting of his car during the “anti-terrorist” operation on September 20, 2023, and that the “remnants” of the RA Armed Forces There were also other wounded and killed by mortar fire.

In this context, the Azerbaijani propaganda machine reported that in response to General Davit Manukyan’s question, the “victim” stated that “the goal of the opposing side was the destruction of Azerbaijanis, he knows no other goals.”

What questions or observations General Manukyan made could only be assumed, because the Azerbaijani side did not make the general’s speech public.

The “victim” Jeihun Aliyev claimed in his testimony that he was injured in the area of ​​Chankatagh village during the days of “anti-terrorist” operations, when they tried to prevent the “sabotage carried out” by the “remnants” of the RA Armed Forces.

“They were carrying out various “provocations”, shooting at our positions and the civilian population,” the “victim” continued.

Here, the former commander of the Armed Forces, General Levon Mnatsakanyan, as it appeared from the information provided by Azerbaijani sources, tried to intervene, which was prevented by the Baku court.

Another case. During another “judicial” session in Baku, the “victim” Amin Musaev was remarkable was a testimony gave that he was “wounded by a firearm on November 8, 2020, in the Shushi-Stepanakert section, and captured on November 11”, later moved to Yerevan, and returned to Azerbaijan on December 14.

Note that on June 20, 2023 Nikol Pashinyan in the NA investigation commission investigating the circumstances of the 44-day war in speech had a key role Shushi’s fall theme.

“On the afternoon of November 7, the Head of the Military Police Onik Gasparyan reported to me about the fall of Shushi. Upon hearing the news of Shushi’s downfall, my first reaction was to demand, do what you promised. I mean, keep Shush. Hold the bottle, take it back. Eventually I was told about the countermeasures, then some success, then the operation was going well, then we were inside Shushi. Before the signing of the tripartite declaration, I was informed that part of Shushi was under the control of the Defense Army. Then there was the signing of the tripartite statement, then the attack on the government building on the night of November 10, and when I returned to full-time work in a day or two, they told me that we don’t have any soldiers in Shushi,” Pashinyan said.

And after the war, the former president of Artsakh, Araik Harutyunyan, who was in Baku, said: “On November 7, we completely lost control over the city of Shushi. The battles were going on in the Stepanakert suburbs. If it continued at that rate, within days we would have lost all of Artsakh, we would have had many more victims.”

In turn, in January 2024 President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in an interview with local TV channels had informed. “On November 8, I could not say how the war would end.”

In other words, there are some overlaps in the testimony of the Azerbaijani “victim” and the official statements presented, on the other hand, it turns out that Nikol Pashinyan was lying, saying: “On the night of November 9-10, there was an attack on the government building, and when I returned to full-time work a day or two later, I was told that we had no soldiers in Shushi.”

Anyway, after listening to the testimony of the “victim” Amin Musaev during the “court” session, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Artsakh, Davit Babayan, asked him why “his fighting comrades did not evacuate him during the period between November 8-11”.

“My comrades in arms were killed, and I lost consciousness when I was injured. And then, during the war, it is not possible to evacuate either the victims or the wounded at once,” answered the Azerbaijani “victim”.

Of course, this Azerbaijani reaction raises some questions, and there are still unanswered questions regarding the fall of Shushi, as well as their arrival at Stepanakert.

And today, in his message from Baku, Davit Babayan said that the sent “victims” confused him with different people, including Vitaly Balasanyan, during their testimony, which is another proof that Aliyev uses his citizens to create a false legal base against Armenia or the Armenian side, while Armenia does not use clear facts to prove Baku’s war crimes.

There was another remarkable episode in Davit Babayan’s message.

“During a preliminary investigation, they brought and showed the picture of NKR National Assembly deputy Davit Galstyan, they said that this is a well-known mafioso, he was selling weapons. I said, that person has nothing to do with it, then it turned out that this is another Davit Galstyan, the person called “Boss Davo”. But the problem is that 73 people have already testified against that deputy and personally, as if they saw him. When I told them, they got mixed up, left, came back after about two hours, said, “We have changed, you will say that you saved Davit Galstyan’s life,” explains Babayan.

It is a bit strange that Nikol Pashinyan, the main weapons supplier to the army, has a visual “from declassification» then, moreover, on June 18, 2021 in Baku, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Azerbaijan International to declare wantedfrom later, the Azerbaijani investigative bodies might not recognize him by face, but know his biography well. Maybe something like this is possible? And what assumption can be made from Davit Babayan’s speech, maybe it should also be perceived as a warning, especially when there is no confirmation that he left Aliyev’s agenda, who accused him of “illegally acquiring weapons from Russian military factories and sending them to Armenia by civilian planes”.

Moreover, 2022 wrote an extensive article on this topic in June caliber.az– referring also to the activities of Davit Galstyan, who deals in arms trade.

The Azerbaijani website did not ignore the information that there was military-technical cooperation between Armenia and Bulgaria in 2018, and Armenia bought weapons from this country, including heavy ones. In the article, the Azerbaijani side, in fact, set an ultimatum: Bulgaria should either choose to make money by supplying arms to Armenia, or choose Azerbaijani gas.

In this context, we should note that during the 44-day war in 2020 and after that, it was regularly circulated in this context that 2020 On September 27, the first day of the 44-day war, at that time the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Davit Tonoyan was not in Armenia, and that he participated in the birthday ceremony of Davit Galstyan (Patron Davit), the arms supplier to the army in a foreign country.

In 2023, the former Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Davit Tonoyan, referring to these conversations in the Investigative Commission, had informed. “On the evening of September 25-26, I was in an EU and NATO member country again within the framework of a business trip for the purpose of organizing the supply of weapons and military equipment.” Although Davit Tonoyan did not mention the name of that country, it was, in fact, Bulgaria.

Against the backdrop of Azerbaijani targeting, Nikol Pashinyan pushed Davit Galstyan back from the army, and until now continues the case of “junk missiles”, which Galstyan, who is also an arms dealer, is involved in, and before that he has been acquitted in the case of “shells”.

However, we should not forget that the topic of arms purchases is also touched upon in the report of the 44-day investigative commission. As for the current defense minister, Pashinyan’s teammate Suren Papikyan, on one occasion we wrote that in this respect he is more than at risk. But this is a separate topic for discussion.

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The YouTube channel of 24News was attacked. The crew has lost 90% of their ability to communicate with the channel, there is a possibility that the entire channel will be wiped out as a result of the attack.

We assess this as an attack on free speech, which is directed from Yerevan and has clear political reasons.

Similar manifestations during the elections are embarrassing, but they cannot silence our activities.

24news.am

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168.am of “Nubarashen” prisonAccording to the sources, another case of suicide was registered in “Nubarashen” prison today.

A 52-year-old prisoner ended his life by hanging himself from the edge of the bed in “Nubarashen” penitentiary.

We will inform about the reasons later.

There were civil society organizations that made cosmic noise for every hunger strike before 2018. Do they have nothing to say? This is already the 10th case of suicide in the penitentiary institutions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of RA within 1.5 years since the head of the Penitentiary Service, Tsovinar Tadevosyan, was appointed to his current position.

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In recent months, in order to woo the voters, the political authorities have been distributing widespread aid at the expense of the budget. But before the elections, the social situation in Armenia worsens. The growth of salaries has slowed down significantly, instead, inflation has intensified to a great extent.

The official statistics recorded that this year the growth of nominal average wages is far behind the rate of inflation.

The increase in salaries does not catch up with the price increases, which means that people have started to live worse than they did last year.

Until recently, Nikol Pashinyan considered one of the main achievements of his government and political power to be that wages are growing much faster than inflation. Based on that, he said that people live better now. This year, we see that inflation is growing at a much faster rate than wages. But Nikol Pashinyan does not say that people have started to live worse.

In the first 3 months of the beginning of the year, according to official statistics, the average nominal salary in Armenia increased by only 2.9 percent.

We are talking about the increase of the average salary recorded during one year.

Admittedly, this is a rather modest increase, which indicates that the pace of wage growth has slowed down significantly. It happened in conditions of no less high economic growth. The growth of economic activity in the first quarter was 7.1 percent. Much higher than last year. But that growth has bypassed working citizens. The rate of growth of their wages has weakened.

In March, even nominal wages fell.

According to official data, the average salary in Armenia in March was lower than in March last year. A 1.2 percent decrease was recorded.

This is a very bad impulse. Especially, if we take into account that this decrease is not a seasonal decrease, from which we can be calm. If it continues, serious problems may arise, and not only from a social point of view.

A decrease in wages can have many other related negative consequences, and first of all, for the banking system. It is known that in recent years, many citizens have found themselves under loans, and many of them somehow manage to pay off the loans and solve their social problems on the other hand. The decrease in wages will increase the financial pressure on them. Many people may face the fact of insolvency, not being able to fulfill their obligations.

It doesn’t take much imagination to understand what will happen after that.

The decrease in wages is one of the biggest risks that have been placed under the country in the form of a bomb in recent years. Due to this, they can cause many problems in different fields.

It is noteworthy that the decrease in wages took place mainly in the economy.

The official statistics recorded that in March, compared to March of the previous year, the average salary in the economic sector was reduced by 4 percent. And it happened against the backdrop of inflation activation.

Average inflation in March was 4.5 percent. Compared to March of the previous year, consumer goods rose in price by 4.5 percent on average.

During that same period, the nominal or “dirty” salaries of almost 600,000 citizens employed in the economy decreased by an average of 4 percent. After taxation, the reduction will be greater.

Now let Nikol Pashinyan be kind enough to say whether these people lived better last year, or whether the social condition of these people has improved or worsened compared to last year.

Another thing in the case of the state. the social condition of those employed in the state system and especially high-ranking bureaucrats has improved. The rate of growth of their salaries has been much higher than the rate of inflation.

While the salaries of citizens working in the economy and creating good have decreased, the average salary in the state system has increased by 9.8 percent in March.

Do you know at what expense, the millions that are taken from the budget and from the taxes paid by taxpayers, are divided among themselves under the name of incentive money? At the expense of those millions, such salary increases were registered in the state system.

The salary of a working, productive, tax-paying citizen has decreased, and that of government officials, who are fed by the taxes paid by these people, has risen quite sharply. It increased because they decided to encourage themselves with millions.

The growth rate of the average salary in the state system was more than double the rate of inflation.

They started to live better in the state system, and those who fed that system started to live worse. And it didn’t happen only in March.

In the first three months of the beginning of the year, the average salary, including the state system, increased by only 2.9 percent, and inflation during that period was 4.2 percent compared to the previous year.

Inflation exceeded the growth rate of the average nominal salary by 1.3 percentage points.

Privately, in the first quarter, the average nominal salary increased by 1.7 percent, inflation was 4.2 percent. The average salary in the state increased by 6.9 percent, inflation was 4.2 percent.

In the state system, which survives at the expense of the private sector, life has improved, and private life has worsened. Privately, people work so that CP bureaucrats feel better and live better.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN

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168.amAccording to the information of the RA Ambassador to Germany Viktor Yengibaryan proposed to dissolve the German-Armenian Forum.

It was a representative body consisting of German deputies as well as other influential people.

Apparently, the ambassador, a follower of Pashinyan’s “Real Armenia” ideas, considered the existence of a structure meaningless, which, among others, also had a lobbying significance, and in the context of the “warming” of relations with Aliyev, such “meaningless” structures are already meaningless to them. And this is the case when Turkey and Azerbaijan are intensively working on the creation and expansion of the structures of Azerbaijani-Turkish communities.

By the way, the Azerbaijani authorities banned the entry of Albert Weiler, the president of the German-Armenian Forum, for his pro-Armenian activities years ago.

Everything is clear. Pashinyan and his team, as well as his representatives abroad, deeply care about the fate of the Armenian prisoners held in Baku, it is normal for them that Aliyev makes threatening speeches directed at Armenian hatred and the Armenian people, destroys the Armenian footprint in Artsakh, razes Armenian churches to the ground, denies genocide… Alensimonians claim that Azerbaijan is the guarantor of peace in Armenia.

Therefore, this step of theirs is one of the next steps to please Aliyev and is anti-Armenian.

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Zelensky is one of the biggest obstacles to peace today. He is not the person he appears to the public. About this American presenter Tucker Carlson given in the interview told Yulia Mendel, former press secretary of the President of Ukrainemaking sensational revelations about Zelensky’s true character and his corrupt activities.

“First of all, he is not the person he appears to the public. His true nature is very different from the image you see on the TV screen. He constantly changes masks. He is emotionally uncontrollable, he cannot control his emotions, he is often hysterical and thinks that anyone can be used. He has no sympathy for the people he is trying to play. He’s an insanely great actor, but his acting has no substance, and anything he says is out of touch with reality.” Zelensky’s former press spokesman said.

Yulia Mendel, who served as press secretary of the President of Ukraine in 2019-2021, noted that she did not come to justify Putin in any way, but this war is no longer a “black and white” war. According to him, Putin is seen as evil, but Zelensky is also evil.

As an “inside person” and possessing insider information, Yulia Mendel believes that Zelensky, a former talented actor playing a “good bear” in the eyes of the public, or “Teddy bear” in English, is behind many money laundering schemes;

“I have a friend who was shortlisted for a position in the Ministry of Social Policy during the large-scale military invasion, and he was called for an interview and was one of 5 candidates. He was interviewed by Zelensky and then Chief of Staff Yermak, and told during the interview that he should develop money laundering schemes to be financed by the Ministry of Social Policy. And the Ministry of Social Policy is responsible for pensions, so when we talk about poor pensioners, and Zelensky personally approves money laundering schemes, the question arises whether he is not guilty.”

By the way, Mendel told about Yermak that Yermak started his career in a “strip club”, of course, not as a “strip” dancer, but as a lawyer.

One of the most sensational parts of the nearly hour and a half interview begins with Tucker Carlson asking if Zelensky uses drugs.

“It’s a well-known secret.” This is how Julia Mendel answered the question.

“I never saw him using drugs, but in writing my book I met many people who confirmed that they saw him using drugs in various clubs. Only one person saw him using drugs in 2021. I found out who the supplier is from “Kvartal-95” (“Studio Kvartal-95” is Zelensky’s comedy-acting company, – A.S.), and I met that person. I am not saying that he is a drug dealer. He is just one of the actors of “Kvartal-95”.

To Tucker Carlson’s question, does Zelensky use cocaine, the former speaker answered that he did not see it personally, but all those people are talking about the fact that he uses cocaine.

The second fact, mentioned by Yulia Mendel, is that, according to her, every time they were going to give an interview, Zelensky listened to the information he presented about the questions and approaches of the given journalist, then he locked himself in the bathroom for about 15 minutes and came out as a “completely different person”.

“I assure you, he left there as a completely different person. I would brief him about the upcoming interview, then he would go into the bathroom, stay there for 15 minutes and come out full of energy, active and ready to say anything.” said Zelensky’s spokesperson.

Yulia Mendel laughed at the presenter’s question whether there is any way to get rid of Zelensky, but she noted that it is a very good question. According to him, the problem is how to do it legally and who will replace him in the position of president.

Perhaps the most remarkable part of the interview of the former press secretary of the Ukrainian president was his statement that, as his sources told him, Zelensky agreed to hand over Donbass to Russia in 2022.

“I talked to people who participated in the peace talks in 2022. They said that Zelensky personally agreed to hand over Donbas and that would be the end of the war. And now he says: “I can’t.” You see, he is inconsistent.” said Mendel.

Zelensky’s office called the former speaker’s statements “frivolous” and “unrealistic”.

According to Mendel, during two years he constantly heard two quotes from Zelensky, one of which was “Ukraine is not ready for democracy” and the other was “dictatorship is order”.

In response to the question whether Zelensky is personally corrupt, the former speaker said:
“There was a minister, I’m not naming names, okay?” He had good connections with the United States, and that’s why Zelensky held him in high esteem, and once there was an absolutely absurd story that Ukrainian ministers receive low salaries, say $12,000 a year, and he said:
“Look, I don’t want much, but I will need about $5,000 a month, so $60,000 a year. Zelensky, of course, promised him during the first interview and obviously did nothing about it, so the minister began to award himself bonuses, and the opposition was very critical of him, so when the first government resigned, this guy was invited, and Zelensky told him: “Listen, I like the way you work. You have good relations with the West. Maybe you would like to continue working in the other government, but you can’t officially get a salary of $5,000 because it causes a big scandal, and when that guy came into the room, there was President Zelensky, there was Mr. Yermak, and another person I know, and there was a bag full of dollars on the table, and that person said: “I can’t give you an official salary of 5,000 dollars, but I will give you 5,000 shadow money, and that will be your salary, but it’s not an official salary, okay?” Which means that Zelensky knew about it, it is not corruption. Do you see?’

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American lawyer and international human rights defender Robert Amsterdam referred to the PACE report which referred to the parliamentary elections in RA.
“The latest PACE report on Armenia is not just a piece of paper. it is a deep disappointment for me and, I will not be afraid to say, it is just a shameful blow to democracy.

As a person who has devoted 45 years of his life to the defense of the rule of law, I am shocked by the one-sided and distorted picture that international observers are trying to present. I have just returned from Armenia and I saw with my own eyes what the authors of this report chose to keep silent about.

They do not notice Pashinyan’s regime’s attacks on the church, illegal detentions and open misuse of state resources. This is not democracy, this is political hypocrisy.
My message is clear. The future of Armenia should be decided only by the Armenian people, the pillar of whose identity is the Church.

Robert Amsterdam, PACE Report, Elections

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“The Armenian-Turkish dialogue is so mature that at any moment we can even have a complete settlement,” said Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan today.

He recorded that the Armenian-Turkish border still remains closed, but expressed confidence that “that border will be opened one day in the future”.

“The goods will already be imported directly, now in terms of customs, directly, but physically, transit will be done through Georgia and will enter Armenia,” said Mirzoyan.

Yesterday, it became known that Yerevan and Ankara have completed preparations for the start of direct trade between the two countries. Ruben Rubinyan, special envoy for the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, noted that direct trade between Armenia and Turkey has become possible in the customs sense, without reformulations. Serdar Kılıç, Turkey’s special envoy for the Armenian-Turkish settlement, posted on the “X” page about the start of direct trade between Turkey and Armenia.

He shared the message issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey and noted.

“Another important step has been taken for the establishment of stable peace and stability in the region within the framework of the ongoing process of normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations under the instructions of our president. I want this to be successful first for the residents of both countries, and then for all the businessmen and people of our region.”

The USA and the EU welcomed this milestone in Armenian-Turkish relations.

On May 4, Nikol Pashinyan met with the Vice President of the Republic of Turkey Cevdet Yilmaz within the framework of the European Political Community Summit. As a result of the meeting, the protocol for the joint restoration of the historic Ani (Silk Road) bridge located on the border between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey was signed.

168.amin a conversation with Russian Turkologist, orientalist Victor Nadein-Raevsky said that the consensus formed in Armenian-Turkish political contacts is clearly visible, which leads to small steps towards the Armenian-Turkish settlement.

However, according to him, there is certainly also an idea and perception that the full Armenian-Turkish settlement will probably take place after the signing of the RA-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement.

“Otherwise, it is difficult to understand why this settlement has not already taken place, why diplomatic relations have not been established, and why the border has not been opened. Turkey is just waiting for the final confirmations in the Armenian-Adrijan process, because, firstly, economically, then politically, it is not interested in an early settlement with Armenia, and it also acts in coordination with Azerbaijan.

In other words, Azerbaijan has not yet given a “green light” for the final Armenian-Turkish settlement, when they declare that there is already peace in the region. I think that these small steps will be continuous, but the big records will be maybe after months,” said Viktor Nadein-Raevsky.

He believes that peace and open borders are positive especially for those countries that are small and have lived with closed borders for a long time.

“However, Armenia should also have a correct understanding of what is expected after the open borders with Turkey, after trade, independent research is needed, because the results may differ significantly from the expectations of people and political forces. Turkey has an extremely developed, cheap production, whose entry into the Armenian market will create a new situation, perhaps problems or opportunities.

I think we should be prepared for different scenarios, taking into account the strong Turkish capital, developed industry, whether there are relevant researches, as well as the Armenian market, the local producer should position himself, prepare for such a scenario, how the economy should work. This should be interpreted by economists, but it is wrong when we interpret the events from a political point of view,” said Victor Nadein-Raevsky.

According to him, the assessment that the Armenian-Turkish dialogue has matured is perhaps correct, but the expectation that there can be a complete settlement at any moment is exaggerated.

“Why is it exaggerated, because Azerbaijan expects constitutional changes, after which only Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, only after that there should be full Armenian-Turkish settlement. These are the chain preconditions that are necessary for full regulation in the region. Therefore, without the solution of all the issues with Azerbaijan and the issues that Azerbaijan constantly raises, I think there will not be a complete lifting of the blockade in the Turkish direction,” he said.

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Yerevan and Baku are discussing the expansion of trade and economic ties

The Prime Minister of RA, having gone on a formal vacation after the official start of the NA election campaign, does not see the need for a referendum on the choice of the country’s location in the EU or EAEU at the moment. “…let’s hold it at the moment when there will be an objective need.”

Against the backdrop of the “inevitable transformation” of Russian-Armenian relations, Yerevan is not going to leave the EAEU, the leader of “Civil Pact” added, continuing. “I have expressed myself on this topic many times. We had working discussions with the President of Russia on this issue. I have publicly said that we will not put such a question on the agenda until the moment when there is no need for an election, de jure and de facto. I don’t agree with the wording “divorce” because sometimes we confuse interstate relations with marriage.

“Armenia respects all EAEU members as well as its own participation in the union, there is no intention to spoil relations with Russia, and working relations with Vladimir Putin are maintained, which are based on “mutual trust. We discussed the most pressing issues in a calm, respectful, friendly atmosphere.”

As for Zelensky’s statements at the “European Political Community” summit on May 4, which provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow, Pashinyan does not think that as the leader of the host country, he should engage in censorship or necessarily react to everything, because, allegedly, “this is a multi-faceted platform, and people should have the opportunity to express themselves. … In my presence, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a statement to various countries, but I don’t remember that Russia expected a response from me.”

As expected earlier, Pashinyan will not participate in the next meeting of the EAEU Supreme Council on May 28 due to the pre-election campaign, about which he has already informed the leaders of Russia (still on April 1) and Kazakhstan. Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan will represent Armenia that day in Astana.

To remind, on May 9, in response to a journalist’s question, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to the Armenian authorities to hold a referendum between the European Union (where, let’s note, nobody called Yerevan as a full member or at least a candidate) and the Eurasian Economic Union, where the small Caucasian country receives significant privileges.

If the “pro-European” agenda is approved, Russia is ready to start a “civilized divorce” process. In any case, Moscow will support everything that is beneficial to the Armenian people, but the destructive processes in Ukraine started with the discussions about the reckless “European integration”.

The peculiarity of Armenia lies in the fact that behind the veil of “European” rhetoric cut off from reality, it is about introducing the republic in the “Turkic world” with the financial support of Brussels structures, believes journalist and political scientist Beniamin Matevosyan.

Yerevan and Baku are negotiating driving around the opening of direct border communication, bypassing the territory of Georgia. The resumption of cross-border trade can seriously change the structure of Armenia’s foreign economic relations. By modernizing the port of Baku, Azerbaijan aspires to take on the role of a key transit link between China, Central Asia, Turkey and Europe, and Armenia could get some privileges here (of course, “good behavior” and requirements in case of steady performance)։

Yerevan and Baku hold talks on the possibility of exporting aluminum foil, raw materials, ferromolybdenum, pets, brandy raw materials, tobacco and textile products from Armenia to Azerbaijan in January said RA Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan. According to Armenian media, the companies that import oil products to Armenia are related to big businessmen Khachatur Sukiasyan and with Samvel Aleksanyan.

Back in 2024, Aliyev announced: “Within the framework of expanding export opportunities, Baku allows one of the power transmission lines and gas pipelines to pass through the territory of Armenia. Armenia can potentially become a recipient of gas from Azerbaijan.”

The recent negotiations held in Aghveran (including business communities) and Armenian-Turkish contacts within the framework of the “Yerevan Dialogue” conference can be presented as a kind of “insurance mechanism” in case of further degradation of trade and economic relations with Russia.

And now Pashinyan announces the facilitation of bilateral trade by the Turkish side, and claims that Nagorno-Karabakh was never Armenian because nothing was allegedly built there. In turn, the leader of Azerbaijan warns the Armenian people of “big troubles” if “revanchist forces” come to power.

Probably, no one can accurately predict the voting results. Local polling agency Gallup International Association with data՝ slightly more than 24% of potential voters are currently ready to vote for the “Civil Pact” party. Samvel Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” party is in second place with a significant advantage (more than 13%), followed by “Prosperous Armenia” led by businessman Garik Tsarukyan and “Armenia” alliance led by Second President Robert Kocharyan.

The pre-election race is of a very sharp nature, drastic steps are not ruled out, up to the attempt to withdraw “Strong Armenia” from the election contest, which will become another emphatic and demonstrative anti-Russian gesture.

Incessant searches in the regional offices of the party, wiretapping of phones, and arrests of activists are the favorite method of “law enforcement” operations, which is even more upsetting in light of the lack of court decisions.

The periodic references of CP functionaries to the “hybrid war” allegedly waged by the Kremlin do not find any serious confirmation either. Yesterday, the “heavy artillery” went into battle in the form of Starmer’s government, which accused the social engineering agency of creating “pro-Russian organizations” in Armenia and trying to influence the change of power.

In addition, the British linked the activities of “Dialog” (an interdepartmental center of competencies in the field of Internet-communication) with the office of the Russian president and Russian special services, claiming that this structure participated in campaigns to influence the internal politics of Armenia.

“London’s neo-colonial policy, which previously contributed to the coup d’état in Kiev, is now directed against Armenia as well,” the Russian Embassy in London said in a statement. It is the West that should refuse to interfere in the internal affairs of sovereign states in the Moldovan and Romanian scenarios.

On the contrary, the Armenian government actively uses the tricks of this “hybrid war”, especially in social networks, trying to change the unfavorable trends for it in big cities and, first of all, in the capital.

For example, before the start of the pre-election campaign and immediately after its start, the multi-year “hibernation” then became more active In 2020-2023 (on the eve of the previous parliamentary and Yerevan Council of Elders elections), dozens of pages were created on various social networks, which began, as if by order, to spread “blackening” propaganda materials directed against the “Civil Agreement” and its opponents.

It is noteworthy that thousands or even tens-of-thousands of dollars are spent on targeted advertising campaigns, but the corresponding statements are not preserved in the archive of the Meta Corporation, because their authors find ways not to accompany their writings with the “political advertisement” mark, to remain in the shadows, to hide personal information, etc., in general, which directly contradicts the rules of Facebook and other social networks.

However, as is usually the case in such cases, there are no “rules” when it comes to promoting the “right” candidate regardless, as was the case in Moldova; everyone pushed Maya Sandhu and her team forward in every possible way, using methods that were unjustifiably attributed to opponents.

Andrey Areshev

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

fondsk.ru

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