Caucasus: The credit outlook for the region is generally good – ratings agency

eurasiaet
Feb 27 2024
Feb 27, 2024

Fitch Ratings is cautiously optimistic about the creditworthiness of the South Caucasus states of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. But in a recent call with reporters to discuss the regional outlook, Fitch analysts acknowledged that geopolitics is a wildcard when it comes to predicting the region’s financial future.

According to Fitch, the three countries are not in danger of defaulting on their obligations, but neither are they seen as particularly safe investment opportunities. 

Azerbaijan enjoys the highest Fitch rating among the three South Caucasus states with a BB+/positive outlook, just one notch below investment grade. Fitch analyst Erich Arispe Morales applauded the government’s “fiscal prudence” as it strives to reduce its dependence on hydrocarbon export revenues. The country’s key task in the coming years is developing non-energy sectors of the economy, he said. 

Morales told reporters via Zoom that the need to generate comparatively high levels of revenue will remain strong as the Azerbaijani government proceeds with the reconstruction of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku completed its reconquest of Karabakh in 2023. At present, a significant drop in energy prices could upend Baku’s efforts to maintain fiscal discipline.

Georgia and Armenia have been “unexpected beneficiaries” of the war in Ukraine, due to “large” inflows of capital and migrants, mainly from Russia, Fitch analyst Arvind Ramakrishnan said. Even so, the two countries continue to grapple with geopolitical uncertainty, due mainly to extensive trade ties that both countries have with Russia.

Fitch currently gives Georgia a BB/positive outlook rating. While Ramakrishnan offered general praise for the Georgian Dream government’s management of the economy, he noted that the country’s political climate is “quite divisive.” Pointing to parliamentary elections scheduled for this fall, he added that there is a wide expectation that the country will maintain fiscal continuity, given that the Georgian Dream coalition is widely expected to secure reelection.

In its latest ratings assessment, Fitch expressed concern about the International Monetary Fund’s decision in late 2023 to suspend a lending program due to concerns about a governmental move to reorganize the Georgian Central Bank’s operating structure. The changes appeared to pose a threat to the bank’s policy-making independence. 

“The fiscal impact of the suspension of the IMF program … remains limited, but questions over policy credibility remain unresolved,” the Fitch assessment reads.

Ramakrishnan also said geopolitics “does weigh on [Georgia’s] rating,” going on to acknowledge that there is “no getting away from the fact” that Georgia maintains “very strong” trade relations as it strives to gain European Union membership. As for Tbilisi’s EU membership bid, Ramakrishnan said there are a “lot of complications” and it will be a “slow process.”

Armenia enjoys a BB-/stable outlook from Fitch. Ramakrishnan said the sudden influx of roughly 100,000 ethnic Armenians from Karabakh will have a “short-term negative impact” on the government’s budget, requiring increased state outlays for refugee resettlement. But he predicted that “fiscal consolidation” over the medium- and long-term will not be undermined by the refugee crisis.

The big question mark hanging over Yerevan is the country’s relationship with Russia. In the wake of Azerbaijan’s retaking of Karabakh, Armenian officials have moved to distance themselves from Russia and build stronger relationships with the West. But any westward pivot will be complicated by Armenia’s trade dependency on Russia, Ramakrishnan indicated. He said the possibility of Armenia successfully decoupling trade ties from Russia was “unlikely.”   

Fitch Ratings, along with Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s, comprise the Big Three global credit rating agencies. A BB rating in Fitch’s system indicates that a sovereign government has the means to meet debt obligations, but nonetheless has “an elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time.” 

https://eurasianet.org/caucasus-the-credit-outlook-for-the-region-is-generally-good-ratings-agency

Homenetmen Leaders Unite in Watertown: Charting The Future of Armenian Youth Programs

Feb 27 2024

On February 19, 2024, a significant meeting took place at the Hairenik building in Watertown, Massachusetts, marking a pivotal moment for the Armenian youth organization, Homenetmen. Vicken Khatchadourian, Razmik Banosian, and Vahe Andonian from the Homenetmen Eastern USA Regional Executive joined forces with Hagop Khatcherian, the Central Executive chairman from Lebanon, and Central Executive member Vahe Tanashian. This assembly was focused on discussing and aligning the organization's mission and outreach programs for the upcoming four years.

The meeting highlighted the organization's resolve to foster Armenian youth development through strategic programs and initiatives. Key discussions encompassed the strengths, challenges, and priorities of the 12 chapters and miavors in the Eastern USA. Among the discussed priorities were completing a regional membership database, developing a youth division, and acquiring a campsite for Homenetmen in the Eastern U.S., all aimed at enhancing the organization's capacity to serve its members effectively.

Attention was also given to the major annual events that form the backbone of the organization's regional outreach, such as the Navasartian Games and Regional Panagoum. These events, celebrated with great enthusiasm and participation, not only strengthen community bonds but also play a crucial role in promoting Armenian culture and heritage among the youth.

The Regional Executive's initiatives are designed to align with and complement the Central Executive's proposed programs, as outlined in their first plenary meeting in January 2024. This collaborative approach underscores a unified effort to advance the Homenetmen's mission and expand its impact on Armenian youth in the Eastern U.S. and beyond.

As this meeting in Watertown folds into history, it represents a step forward in the Homenetmen's journey towards empowering Armenian youth. The concerted efforts of its leaders, both from the regional and central executive branches, promise not only to address current challenges but also to pave the way for a vibrant, engaged, and culturally rich Armenian community.

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/us/homenetmen-leaders-unite-in-watertown-charting-the-future-of-armenian-youth-programs

A Bridge Between Nations: Iraq and Armenia Seek to Strengthen Ties in Historic Baghdad Meeting

Feb 27 2024

In the heart of Baghdad, a city woven with the threads of history and modern challenges, two leaders met with the promise of fostering a relationship that transcends borders. On a day marked by diplomatic formalities and guarded optimism, President Abdul Latif Jamal Rashid of Iraq welcomed his Armenian counterpart, President Vahakin Khachaturian, to the grandeur of Baghdad Palace. This visit, more than a mere formality, signifies a hopeful stride towards enhanced bilateral relations between Iraq and Armenia.

The air at Baghdad Palace was charged with anticipation as the official reception ceremony unfolded, setting the stage for a series of discussions that could chart a new course for Iraq-Armenian relations. The meeting, described by the Presidency of the Republic, was not just a convergence of two leaders but a testament to the commitment both nations share towards exploring avenues of cooperation. The talks are poised to cover a spectrum of issues, with both parties keen on developing their bilateral relations.

While the specifics of the discussions remain under the veil of diplomatic confidentiality, the agenda is believed to be comprehensive, spanning various sectors. The focus on bilateral relations suggests a multipronged approach to cooperation, potentially encompassing trade, cultural exchange, and political collaboration. This meeting is a beacon for both countries, signaling an intention to not only strengthen ties but also to confront shared challenges through unity and mutual support.

The significance of this meeting extends beyond the immediate interests of Iraq and Armenia. In a world often divided by geopolitical strife, the forging of strong bilateral partnerships stands as a reminder of diplomacy's enduring power. This engagement between President Rashid and President Khachaturian could serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and cooperation, providing a blueprint for other nations to follow. As these discussions unfold, the international community watches with keen interest, hopeful that this diplomatic overture will usher in a new era of collaboration between Iraq and Armenia.

In sum, the meeting between the leaders of Iraq and Armenia at Baghdad Palace is more than just a diplomatic formality; it is a step towards a future where cooperation and mutual respect shape the relations between nations. As both countries navigate the complexities of the modern world, their partnership could become a testament to the power of dialogue and shared ambitions.

https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/a-bridge-between-nations-iraq-and-armenia-seek-to-strengthen-ties-in-historic-baghdad-meeting

Greek Prime Minister: Relations with Armenia can become even more productive

TORNOS News, Greece
Feb 27 2024
 
Greece and Armenia have historic ties that stretch across the centuries and can now become even more productive given the common challenges that lie ahead, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Tuesday, during joint statements with his Armenian counterpart Nikol Pashinyan in Athens, ANA reports.

The Armenian prime minister's visit was an important step in consolidating the already excellent relations with Armenia, Mitsotakis said, adding that they will have the opportunity to discuss bilateral cooperation in areas such as renewable energy sources and technology. 

https://www.tornosnews.gr/en/tourism-businesses/markets/49976-greek-prime-minister-relations-with-armenia-can-become-even-more-productive.html

EU Allocates €15 Million to Armenia for Refugee Support: Strengthening Bilateral Ties

Feb 27 2024

In a significant stride towards bolstering EU-Armenia relations, Adrienn Kiraly, Neighbourhood East & Institution Building Director at the European Commission, recently convened with Armenian Deputy Prime Ministers Mher Grigoryan and Tigran Khachatryan in Yerevan. The meeting underscored the European Union's commitment to supporting Armenia, particularly in managing refugee issues, through a notable financial gesture.

The focal point of the discussions was the formal handing over of a financing agreement by Kiraly, which earmarks €15 million in budget support specifically for refugees. This move is a testament to the EU's dedication to aiding Armenia in enhancing its capacity to address the challenges posed by the refugee influx. The financial aid is poised to play a pivotal role in reinforcing the bilateral relationship between the EU and Armenia, spotlighting the EU's role as a key supporter in the region's stability and prosperity.

Beyond the immediate financial support, the meeting delved into other critical areas of mutual interest. Discussions encompassed the 'Crossroads of Peace' project, regional infrastructure initiatives, and broader cooperation in human capital development, trade, and economy. Such dialogues are crucial for laying the groundwork for a robust partnership, ensuring that the cooperation extends beyond financial assistance to include sustainable development goals and regional peace efforts.

This recent development not only serves as a lifeline for Armenia in managing its refugee situation but also as a beacon of hope for stronger EU-Armenia relations. By addressing immediate humanitarian needs and exploring avenues for deeper cooperation, the EU and Armenia are crafting a partnership that is resilient, dynamic, and forward-looking. As this relationship continues to evolve, it promises to bring about positive changes in the political, economic, and social spheres, benefiting not just Armenia but potentially setting a precedent for EU engagement in the region.

The €15 million funding agreement is more than a financial transaction; it is a symbol of solidarity, support, and shared goals. As both parties continue to work together, the foundations laid by such agreements are likely to lead to a more prosperous and stable future for Armenia, with the EU playing an instrumental role in this transformative journey.

https://bnnbreaking.com/politics/eu-allocates-15-million-to-armenia-for-refugee-support-strengthening-bilateral-ties

Armenian Minister Narek Mkrtchyan says expanding ties with India remains a top priority

Feb 27 2024
India Blooms News Service | @indiablooms 27 Feb 2024, 10:25 am

Armenia’s labour minister Narek Mkrtchyan, who recently visited New Delhi to participate in the Raisina Dialogue, has said deepening and expanding ties with India remains a top priority for his nation's foreign policy agenda.

He said the longstanding friendship and mutual support between India and Armenia have strengthened continuously over the past three decades.

Mkrtchyan was speaking last week in New Delhi at Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics hosted by the Observer Research Foundation, an independent think tank, in collaboration with the Ministry of External Affairs of India.

He said both nations have experienced a significant boost in political dialogue.

"The longstanding friendship and mutual support between our countries have strengthened continuously over the past three decades, with the last three years experiencing a significant boost, especially in political dialogue. Deepening and expanding ties with India remains a top priority in Armenia's foreign policy agenda," the minister said in his Raisina Dialogue speech.

"The inter-governmental commission between Armenia and India has gained new momentum in areas like economy, technology, social protection, education, and culture, with enhanced engagement between sectoral departments. Mutual respect for each other's cultures and the preservation of Armenian heritage in India foster collaboration and projects to promote cultural exchange and appreciation," he said.

Tourism and AI

He said both India and Armenia should focus on the tourism sector which has the potential to boost economic growth.

"Direct flights between our countries would be a significant facilitator in this regard," Narek Mkrtchyan said.

He said both nations could collaborate in Artificial Intelligence.

"Armenia and India have the potential to collaborate on AI for social good, addressing sectors like healthcare, agriculture, environmental conservation, and urban planning," the Minister said.

"They could also potentially establish a global AI innovation platform to facilitate the sharing of solutions and research, thereby fostering social benefits through international collaboration," he said.

He said Armenia's historical position as a hub connecting North to South and West to East has made it a key player in trade and cultural exchanges.

The Minister said: "Recognizing this legacy, the Armenian government is committed to forming partnerships in major regional and global projects like the North-South International Transport Corridor, the Persian Gulf-Black Sea Transport and Transit Corridor, and the Chabahar Port Development, which is a collaborative effort between India and Iran that includes Armenia as well. With its strategic road network, Armenia is ideally positioned to make significant contributions to these initiatives. To this end, the government is focused on revitalizing and modernizing its infrastructure through the North-South Road Corridor Investment Program, with the goal of boosting Armenia's capacity and securing its active participation in these critical international initiatives."

Raisina Dialogue

The 9th edition of the Raisina Dialogue was held between February 21- 23.

The Raisina Dialogue is India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics, committed to addressing the most challenging issues facing the international community.

The 9th Raisina Dialogue witnessed the participation of representatives from over 100 countries.

https://www.indiablooms.com/news-details/N/95228/armenian-minister-narek-mkrtchyan-says-expanding-ties-with-india-remains-a-top-priority.html

India Has An Opportunity In Armenia It Must Not Let Go Of

SWARAJYA, India

Feb 27 2024


UJJWAL SHROTRYIA


  • This opportunity allows India's defense industry to tap into a new market and sends a clear message to detractors about facing consequences for actions against India's interests.
  • Armenia is buying a substantial amount of weapons and equipment from India after it suffered a humiliating defeat by Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict fought in 2020.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan have clashed over Nagorno-Karabakh, or 'Artsakh' in Armenian, for decades, with conflicts tracing back to the early twentieth century.

    Established by the Soviets in 1923 within Azerbaijani borders but predominantly Armenian, the region sought to join Armenia in 1988.

    Following the Soviet Union's collapse, intense fighting ensued, resulting in over 30,000 deaths and Armenian control over the entire region.

    Since then, both nations have engaged in numerous conflicts, the latest in 2020, when Azerbaijan overpowered Armenian forces in Artsakh. Azerbaijan's adoption of modern warfare tactics, including the strategic use of drones and loitering munitions, led to the significant loss of Armenia's older and conventional Russian-made military equipment.

    This loss led Armenia to diversify its arms sources, turning to India for millions of dollars' worth of weaponry over the past four years.

    In 2020, India delivered four Swathi Weapons Locating Radars (WLR) to Armenia for counter-battery operations. Additionally, in September 2022, India supplied Pinaka 214 mm multiple-barrel rocket launchers, their ammunition, and anti-tank missiles, followed by 155mm artillery guns in November 2022.

    Furthermore, Armenia acquired anti-drone systems worth $41 million from India's Zen Technologies, along with Akash surface-to-air missile systems.

    These weapons imports will bridge a critical gap in the Armenian inventory.

    The Russians, preoccupied with sourcing their war supplies from North Korea and Iran for the conflict in Ukraine, cannot meet Armenian demands.

    Additionally, the apathy of Russian peacekeepers during the Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor — Artsakh's sole land route from Armenia — has fostered perceptions of Russian bias towards Azerbaijan among Armenians.

    Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has created a void which India can fill.

    Apart from the weapons exports to Armenia to help it fight Azerbaijan, India could send trainers to the county to help them effectively utilise these weapons.

    Additionally, Indian military advisors could be sent to Armenia to assist Armenian commanders in making informed decisions, as well as, help in planning.

    India's decision to provide Armenia access to weapons in the middle of the war had irked Azerbaijan, with its President Ilham Aliyev and military warning India to stop providing weapons to Yerevan, adding that this could lead to another war.

    Azerbaijan is also emboldened by both material and strategic support it is getting from Pakistan and Turkey. Both Turkey and Pakistan have provided cover fire to Baku's actions in Artsakh, strongly supporting Azerbaijani control over Artsakh.

    Azerbaijan, like Turkey, has always supported Pakistan when it comes to Islamabad's revisionist agenda against India in Jammu and Kashmir.

    India should use help from Greece — whose Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was in India last week where he discussed ways to strengthen ties with India, and which also has an adversarial relationship with Turkey — to counter the trio of Azerbaijan-Turkey-Pakistan that have repeatedly shown inclinations against Indian interests.

    Notably, Greece and Turkey have historical tensions, with multiple conflagrations and dog-fights erupting between Greek and Turkish jets across decades.

    This support to Armenia will not only help in lifting India's stature but will also demonstrate its will to safeguard its interests far away from its border.

    Not only does this opportunity present a chance for India's emerging defence industrial complex to find a new market, but it also gives New Delhi a chance to demonstrate to its detractors that they cannot escape repercussions for actions that harm its interests. With such significant stakes, letting go of this opportunity is simply not an option.




    Diplomatic Ties Strengthen as Armenia’s Prime Minister Visits Greece

    Feb 27 2024
    Momen Zellmi

    In a move that underscores the evolving landscape of international relations, Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, alongside his wife Anna Hakobyan, has embarked on a significant working visit to Greece. This diplomatic journey, detailed on the Facebook page of Nazeli Baghdasaryan, the spokesperson for the Prime Minister, is more than just a formal trip; it's a testament to the deepening ties between Armenia and Greece amidst a complex global backdrop.

    The itinerary for Prime Minister Pashinyan's visit is packed with high-profile engagements, including meetings with some of Greece's most influential figures: President Katerina Sakellaropoulou, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and Parliament President Konstantinos Tassoulas. While the specifics of the discussions remain under wraps, the agenda is clear – to explore and potentially enhance the bilateral relations between these two nations. This series of meetings underscores the importance both countries place on diplomatic dialogue and cooperation.

    In the realm of international politics, the relationship between Armenia and Greece extends beyond mere formalities. Both countries share a history of cultural and political connections, rooted in their Eastern Orthodox Christian heritage and similar geopolitical challenges. This visit, therefore, is not just about strengthening diplomatic ties but also about reinforcing a shared sense of identity and mutual interests in a rapidly changing world. The discussions between Armenian and Greek officials are expected to cover a range of topics, including economic cooperation, regional security, and cultural exchange, highlighting the multifaceted nature of their relationship.

    As Prime Minister Pashinyan's visit to Greece unfolds, the implications for both countries and the wider region are significant. Strengthening Armenia-Greece relations could serve as a catalyst for greater regional stability and cooperation, setting a positive example for other nations. Moreover, in an era where global dynamics are increasingly unpredictable, the forging of closer ties between nations with shared values and interests is more important than ever. This visit not only reaffirms the longstanding friendship between Armenia and Greece but also opens the door to new possibilities for collaboration and mutual support in the face of global challenges.

    Indeed, as the world watches, the visit of Armenia's Prime Minister to Greece could very well mark a new chapter in the annals of international diplomacy, where shared heritage and common goals pave the way for a stronger, more united future.

    https://bnnbreaking.com/world/armenia/diplomatic-ties-strengthen-as-armenias-prime-minister-visits-greece

    Turkish Press: Armenian FM to attend Antalya Diplomacy Forum on March 1

    Feb 27 2024
    Politics  |

    Editor : Sanem Topal
    2024-02-27 10:57:08 | Last update : 2024-02-27 11:20:53

    Armenia's Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan is set to undertake a working visit to Antalya on March 1 to participate in the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, as announced by the Armenian Foreign Ministry.

    The Antalya Diplomacy Forum, scheduled from March 1 to March 3, is an initiative led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

    Mirzoyan also attended the Forum in 2022.

    Former Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced the closure of Türkiye's airspace to Armenian planes due to the opening of the "Nemesis Monument" in Yerevan in May 2023, despite normalization talks.

    Later in September, the conflict in Karabakh erupted once again.

    Now in its third iteration, the Antalya Diplomacy Forum will bring together heads of state and governments, ministers, diplomats, business leaders, academics, think-tank experts, as well as representatives from youth and media sectors for comprehensive discussions.

    The central theme for this year's forum is "Advancing Diplomacy in Times of Turmoil." The aim is to provide a deep reflection and explore pathways toward peaceful resolutions amid the turbulent global landscape.

    From ongoing conflicts and acts of terrorism to issues of irregular migration, the rise of xenophobia and Islamophobia, challenges posed by artificial intelligence, climate change, natural disasters, pandemics and widening socioeconomic disparities are going to be addressed.

    Additionally, the erosion and loss of trust in the rules-based international order are concerning trends, affecting the predictability of the global operating environment for states.

    Source: Newsroom

    https://www.turkiyenewspaper.com/politics/19501

    Parents Challenge Armenia’s Education Minister Over Controversial History Textbook

    Feb 27 2024
    Nimrah Khatoon

    In the heart of Armenia, a battle not of swords but of words and beliefs unfolds, as parents of 7th grade students take a stand against the country's Education Minister, Zhanna Andreasyan. At the core of the dispute is a newly sanctioned Armenian History textbook that has sparked outrage and a legal challenge. The lawsuit, spearheaded by lawyer Ara Zohrabyan, accuses the textbook of undermining the foundational narratives of Armenian history, igniting a nationwide debate on historical authenticity and educational integrity.

    On August 3, 2023, a new history textbook intended for 7th grade students received official approval from Minister Zhanna Andreasyan. Authored by S. Hovhannisyan, the textbook has become the center of a heated controversy for its portrayal of Movses Khorenatsi, often revered as the father of Armenian history, and his works as mythical. This characterization has led to an uproar among parents and educators alike, who argue that such depictions discredit Armenia's rich historical legacy. Lawyer Ara Zohrabyan, representing the aggrieved parents, has formally initiated legal action, seeking to invalidate the minister's sanction of the textbook.

    The significance of Movses Khorenatsi in Armenian historiography cannot be overstated. Known as the "father of Armenian history," Khorenatsi's works are foundational to the nation's understanding of its early history and cultural identity. The decision to label his contributions as mythical within a school textbook has, therefore, struck a chord with many Armenians, who view it as an affront to their historical narrative and national pride. The lawsuit, thus, transcends beyond a mere legal battle, touching upon the delicate threads of identity, history, and the collective memory of a nation.

    The controversy surrounding the textbook has ignited a broader debate on the role of education in shaping national identity and the boundaries of historical interpretation. Critics argue that the textbook's contentious portrayal of key historical figures and events could sow confusion among young students and erode a sense of national pride. Supporters of the textbook, however, contend that it encourages critical thinking and a more nuanced understanding of history, emphasizing the importance of questioning and re-evaluating established narratives. As the legal battle unfolds, the conversation extends into Armenian society, raising important questions about the balance between preserving national heritage and fostering a critical, open-minded approach to history.

    The lawsuit against Minister Zhanna Andreasyan over the controversial 7th grade Armenian History textbook represents a pivotal moment in Armenia's ongoing struggle to define its historical narrative. As both sides present their arguments, the outcome of this legal challenge will likely have lasting implications for how history is taught and understood in Armenia, echoing far beyond the courtroom and into the heart of Armenian identity and culture.

    https://bnnbreaking.com/breaking-news/education/parents-challenge-armenias-education-minister-over-controversial-history-textbook