Le Monde, France
mardi 7 Décembre 2004
Europe, UMP, Raffarin : les trois hypothèques qui pèsent sur Chirac
Le “oui” du PS à la Constitution européenne et l’élection de Nicolas
Sarkozy à la présidence du parti majoritaire n’ont pas dégagé
l’horizon du chef de l’Etat : le référendum n’est pas gagné, une
crise est possible avec son ex-ministre des finances, et un
remaniement début 2005 toujours à l’étude.
Le mot d’ordre à l’Elysée, après une semaine capitale qui a vu
Nicolas Sarkozy accéder à la tête de l’UMP, les militants du PS
approuver la Constitution européenne et la justice ménager l’avenir
d’Alain Juppé ? “La vie continue.” C’est sans doute une manière de
dire que les soucis aussi. Ceux du chef de l’Etat concernent en
particulier le référendum, l’avenir du gouvernement et du premier
ministre, les rapports avec l’UMP.
Si Jacques Chirac a pu se réjouir du “oui” des socialistes – “une
bonne nouvelle pour l’Europe”, a-t-il dit le 2 décembre à Lübeck
(Allemagne) -, il ne considère pas la partie gagnée. “Il faut voir
maintenant comment François Hollande va gérer ça, s’il a la capacité
d’entraîner”, observe un conseiller du chef de l’Etat, notant que les
partisans du “non” n’ont pas désarmé. En outre, l’entourage
présidentiel juge fragiles les sondages qui indiquent, pour
l’instant, une majorité favorable au “oui”. D’autant que “l’os turc”,
selon l’expression d’un chiraquien du premier cer-cle, ne serait
toujours pas passé.
Espérant toujours qu’un “découplage” entre la question de l’adhésion
turque à l’Union européenne et l’adoption de la future Constitution
s’effectuera au Conseil européen du 17 décembre, l’Elysée plaide
qu’il s’agit d’un “préalable” : “La question turque se posera un
jour, y dit-on ; il n’y a pas lieu de la préempter maintenant par un
vote d’humeur sur la Constitution.” Mais il n’est pas certain que la
promesse d’un référendum dans dix ou quinze ans sur le statut de la
Turquie – telle que M. Chirac l’a formulée (Le Monde du 4 octobre) –
suffise à convaincre.
UNE ÉPINE
M. Chirac n’a même pas réglé la question au sein du couple
franco-allemand. Gerhard Schröder ne veut pas du scénario alternatif
d’un “partenariat privilégié” avec la Turquie – comme l’a recommandé,
dimanche, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing. Fidèle de M. Sarkozy, le ministre
délégué à l’industrie, Patrick Devedjian, a mis l’accent sur la
reconnaissance du génocide arménien par la Turquie, dimanche sur
Radio J. Quant à l’élargissement de l’Union à 25 pays, l’Elysée
considère avec optimisme qu’il ne s’agit plus que d’une “question
technique”.
Autant dire que l’Europe reste une épine pour M. Chirac, tant que le
référendum annoncé pour 2005 n’est pas gagné. Son entourage
s’empresse néanmoins d’assurer qu’un “non” des Français à la
Constitution européenne ne signifierait aucun rejet personnel du
président de la République. Ses conseillers soulignent d’ailleurs que
M. Chirac a toujours déploré la personnalisation de l’enjeu
référendaire, affirmant régulièrement que “De Gaulle n’a pas rendu
service au référendum en démissionnant en 1969” – après l’échec de
son référendum sur le Sénat et la régionalisation.
M. Raffarin pourra-t-il conduire, avec le chef de l’Etat, la campagne
référendaire ? A la rentrée, certains chiraquiens rejetaient
catégoriquement cette hypothèse, jugeant le premier ministre trop
affaibli. Le vent semble tourner. “Si le “oui” l’emportait au PS,
Chirac laissait Raffarin faire la campagne. C’était le deal”, assure
un ministre proche du chef de l’Etat. ” Raffarin sera changé après la
campagne”, approuve un expert qui conseille l’Elysée, ajoutant : “Je
ne vois pas en quoi son impopularité change quelque chose au
référendum. C’est une vision de court terme.” A quoi un député
chiraquien ajoute : “S’il n’y a pas de mouvement social fort, Chirac
ne fera rien sur la seule base de sondages défavorables à Raffarin.”
Si le président a naturellement réfléchi au remplacement de son
premier ministre – songeant à Dominique de Villepin, Jean-Louis
Borloo ou Michèle Alliot-Marie -, il semble peu pressé de renoncer au
confort que lui offre encore M. Raffarin. Le départ de M. Sarkozy du
gouvernement donne à ce dernier une bouffée d’air que M. Chirac
souhaiterait lui laisser. Quitte à opérer un remaniement plus large –
sans changer de premier ministre – avant de commencer la campagne.
“Pour l’instant, il n’y a pas remaniement, il y a gouvernement”,
résume-t-on à l’Elysée.
L’UMP suscite davantage d’incertitudes. M. Sarkozy joue avec habileté
la partition de la réconciliation. Evoquant l’élection présidentielle
de 2007, le nouveau chef du parti majoritaire a assuré, au cours de
l’émission “Vivement Dimanche”, sur France 2 : “Si c’était Jacques
Chirac qui était en situation d’être le meilleur, eh bien, le rôle du
président de l’UMP, ce serait de le soutenir et tout autre
comportement serait irresponsable.” Mais n’en déplaise à ceux de ses
partisans qui appellent déjà à sa candidature, M. Chirac ne semble
pas, pour l’heure, vouloir évoquer 2007 autrement qu’en plaisantant.
Il pense qu’une crise politique n’est pas à exclure avec l’UMP, si la
critique du gouvernement par le parti majoritaire devenait trop forte
– ce que le président de l’Assemblée, Jean-Louis Debré, a dit
plusieurs fois publiquement. “Il faut faire confiance.
Attentivement”, dit un ami du président en parlant de l’UMP, laissant
deviner qu’il y aura plus d’attention que de confiance.
Béatrice Gurrey
–Boundary_(ID_+qZfIFY7F9/GUgz2C0QW0w)–

Iran may export oil products to Armenia via rail
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 7 2004
Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian and Iranian Ambassador to
Armenia Alirza Hagigian discussed construction of a railway connecting
Iran and Armenia last Saturday.
Sarkisian stressed that the project, which envisions exports of
Iranian oil to Armenia, is a vital issue for his country.
Also considered were issues related to regional security, the Upper
Garabagh conflict, construction of the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline and
new electricity transmission lines, as well as the planned visit by
Sarkisian to Iran, the Armenian media reported.
The Iranian ambassador said that his country is ready to assist
in teaching the Persian language in the Vazgen military school. He
also underlined that political stability and economic development in
Armenia is very important for Iran.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Azerbaijan releases 500 carriages to Georgia so far
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 7 2004
Another 7 railway carriages loaded with grain were released to Georgia
from the Boyuk Kasik station on Monday. This brings the number of
railway carriages released to this country after being kept on the
Azeri-Georgian border for several days to 500, the State Railway
Office told AssA-Irada.
Some 780 carriages are currently withheld at the Boyuk Kasik and
neighboring railway stations, including 440 transporting oil products
and the rest grain and flour.
The carriages were detained by Azerbaijan on their way to Georgia
to investigate whether they were they were to be further delivered
to Armenia.
Representatives of the Azerbaijan State Customs Committee have been
in Georgia for several days to look into the problem.*

ARKA News Agency
Dec 6 2004
RA Prime Minister receives Editor of Moscow Magazines “Armenian
Guide” and “Citizen”
Condition of arrested in NKR penitentiary institutions is
satisfactory – monitoring of Civil Initiatives Center
Deputy Foreign Ministers of Armenia and GB discuss several bilateral
issues
European films festival to be held in Armenia on December 13-19
Whole Armenian people interested in settlement of Nagorno Karabakh
issue
*********************************************************************
RA PRIME MINISTER RECEIVES EDITOR OF MOSCOW MAGAZINES “ARMENIAN
GUIDE” AND “CITIZEN”
YEREVAN, December 6. /ARKA/. RA Prime Minister Andranik Margarian
received Editor of Moscow Magazines “Armenian Guide” and “Citizen”
Karen Mikaelian, RA Government press office told ARKA. During the
meeting Margarian highly estimated contribution of Mikaelian in the
issue of integration of Diaspora and its participation in political
and public life of Armenia. L.D. –0–
*********************************************************************
CONDITION OF ARRESTED IN NKR PENITENTIARY INSTITUTIONS IS
SATISFACTORY – MONITORING OF CIVIL INITIATIVES CENTER
STEPANAKERT, December 6. /ARKA/. According to monitoring of Civil
Initiatives Center, condition of arrested in NKR penitentiary
institutions is satisfactory, CIC Director Albert Voskanian stated
today. According to him, during monitoring CIC came to a conclusion
that in the whole moral-psychological and physical condition of
arrested, observation of their rights, sanitary conditions of cells
is at a good level.
Note Civil Initiatives Center conducts monitoring of penitentiary
institutions of NKR since Apr 2003. L.D. –0–
*********************************************************************
DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTERS OF ARMENIA AND GB DISCUSS SEVERAL BILATERAL
ISSUES
YEREVAN, December 6. /ARKA/. RA Deputy Foreign Minister Ruben
Shugariana received today the Head of East Department of GB MFA Simon
Smith, RA MFA told ARKA. The parties discussed the importance of
development of Armenian-British relations and the increase of
cooperation level of South Caucasus with European community,
especially in the context of European neighborhood. The parties also
exchange views on ways of optimal use of advantages of given policy
by South Caucasus countries. They also discussed the issues of
Armenian-Turkish relations. The parties discussed present condition
and settlement perspectives of Karabakh conflict. L.D. –0–
*********************************************************************
EUROPEAN FILMS FESTIVAL TO BE HELD IN ARMENIA ON DECEMBER 13-19
YEREVAN, December 6. /ARKA/. Festival of European films will be held
in Armenia in December 13-19. According to the published press
release, films from Germany, Greece, Poland, Great Britain and France
will be demonstrated in Moscow Cinema in Yerevan. The festival is
organized by the Embassies of Greece, France, Italy, Poland and
Germany in Armenia, as well as by the British Council and European
Commission. L.V.–0–
*********************************************************************
WHOLE ARMENIAN PEOPLE INTERESTED IN SETTLEMENT OF SETTLEMENT OF
NAGORNO KARABAKH ISSUE
YEREVAN, December 6. /ARKA/. The whole Armenian people is interested
in settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh issue, as Armenian Foreign
Minister Vardan Oskanian said in his interview to local TV company
Kentron. He declined the critics to Armenia’s address that it delays
the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh issue. At that he mentioned
that the Armenian people is not ready to agree to solutions that are
in contradiction of its interests. Therefore, in his words, it is
necessary to find a correct balance around the issue, that would be
not easy. “We must not hold maximal positions and must agree to
compromise options”, he added. He stressed the importance of peaceful
co-existence with neighbours adding that there is no other choice for
us, “We need to solve all problems with our neighbours, to overcome
all obstacles, to create good relations with our neighbours”,
stressing that no long-term and stable economic growth and self
security can be secured without this. “This is unavoidable and I am
confident that we will achieve this one day”, he stated. T.M. –0–
*********************************************************************
–Boundary_(ID_RYnYSXNLcAsDwCkIhsSSTw)–

IF THE UN ADOPTS AZERBAIJANI RESOLUTION ARMENIA WILL REFUSE BILATERAL
NEGOTIATIONS ON KARABAKH
ARKA News Agency
Dec 6 2004
YEREVAN, December 6. /ARKA/. If the UN adopts the Azerbaijani
resolution “on the situation on the controlled territories”, Armenia
will refuse bilateral negotiations on Karabakh, as Armenian Foreign
Minister Vardan Oskanian said in his interview to local TV company
Kentron. In his words, in this case Armenia will demand Nagorno
Karbakh’s participation in the negotiating process as a party of the
negotiations, as after adoption of such a resolution the issue will
go beyond the Minsk Group and partially will go to other
international organization, in which Amenia may not have any separate
negotiations. “We really will not continue bilateral negotiations. If
Azerbaijan will agree to Arkadi Ghukasyan’s participation in them,
the process will continue, otherwise Azerbaijan will be responsible
for the consequences”, he stated adding that the Con-Chairs were
warning Azerbaijan that inclusion of the issue in the UN agenda will
break the negotiations. Also Armenia will seriously change its policy
regarding the Karabakh problem. Particularly, in his words, the
problem will be publicly announced as a conflict between Azerbaijan
and Nagorno Karabakh in which Amenia plays a role of guarantor. Also,
Armenia will refer the issue to 1992, it will accent the reason of
the situation and true responsible of militarization of the conflict.
“And finally we will put the issue on self-determination of Karabakh
strongly”, he stressed, adding that Azerbaijan understands all this.
In Oskanian’s opinion, the danger of the adoption of the resolution
by the UN in the circumstance that this organization can consider
this issue as a conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan . At that in
his words, the probability of adoption of this issue exists as the
OSCE Minsk Group member states will refrain from voting and most of
the countries will follow their examples. In this case as he
mentioned, the procedure of the adoption of the decision in the UN
will allow Azerbaijan to pass the resolution having support of 5-10
states. At the same time, Oskanian added that he does not see a
tragedy in it, as the issue discussed in UN concerns the issue of
settlement of the controlled territories and does not solve the issue
of the status of Nagorno Karabakh. T.M. –0–
–Boundary_(ID_OhzEDWv1BQhd8cCKe+FVLQ)–

Turkish entry would be end of old EU
By Paul Taylor
Dawn, Pakistan
Dec 7 2004
BRUSSELS: Where does Europe end and should the European Union go
on expanding indefinitely? That is one key argument of opponents
of Turkey’s bid to win agreement next week to open European Union
membership talks.
While Turkey’s supporters see an opportunity to extend the EU’s mantle
of stability and prosperity to a dynamic Muslim democracy and Nato
ally, adversaries fear the 25-nation grouping will over-extend itself
and choke on such a giant morsel.
They see a precedent that will change the EU from a close-knit
community into an unwieldy “regional United Nations” sprawling into
central Asia and North Africa. If the EU says “yes” to Turkey, how
could it say “no” to Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Armenia and eventually
Russia and Morocco, the critics ask.
“Turkey is an Asian country with a small bridgehead in Europe, with
the elite looking to Europe … but the vast majority rooted in Asia,”
former EU farm chief Franz Fischler said in a letter to his colleagues
this year.
The EU would be unable to sustain its two main spending policies,
agricultural support and regional development aid, even if Turkish
membership were phased in over a decade, and it would open “a geo
strategic Pandora’s box”, the Austrian warned.
The man who drafted the EU constitution, former French President
Valery Giscard d’Estaing, was even more blunt. Turkey was not
geographically or culturally European, and its accession would be
“the end of the European Union”, Giscard told the French daily Le
Monde in November 2002.
Furthermore, those pushing Turkish membership most strongly were the
enemies of European integration, Giscard asserted – a reference to
Britain and the United States. Rising French political star Nicolas
Sarkozy, leader of the ruling UMP party, last month rejected Turkish
entry and said the indefinite expansion of the EU was “an American
vision”.
DIFFERENT EUROPE: Turkish accession in a decade or so would certainly
create a very different EU, shifting the balance of power still
further away from its original Franco-German axis – hence French alarm.
By the time it joined, Turkey would be the most populous nation
in the EU, overtaking Germany’s 80 million. That would give it the
most voting power under the largely population-based voting system
established by the constitution, and the biggest block of seats in
the European Parliament.
The EU would no longer be able to afford to subsidise farmers and poor
regions on the current scale. To some critics, notably in France,
that would reduce it to a vast free trade area with little or no
redistribution of wealth.
Countries such as Britain and Sweden make little secret of their
delight at such a prospect. Turkey’s supporters argue that the EU is
already evolving with the admission of 10 mainly poor east European
countries this year, and its farm and regional policies will have to
change anyway due to world trade talks and budget constraints.
They also argue that the accession of a country with a surplus of
eager young workers could boost Europe’s dwindling, ageing workforce
and help defuse a looming pensions crisis.
But European Commission economists say an influx of Turkish labour,
likely to be long delayed by transition arrangements, would do little
to ease the pensions shortfall.
Then there is the cultural argument – a euphemism for religion in
some eyes, or for a history of enmity in others. Dutch former EU
commissioner Frits Bolkestein articulated an often unspoken fear of
Europe being overrun by Islam.
In a speech in September, he suggested that Ankara’s accesion would
reverse the 1683 defeat of the Turks at the gates of Vienna, which
marked the limit of the westward expansion of the Ottoman empire
in Europe.
Jean-Louis Bour langes, a centre-right French member of the European
Parliament and leading European federalist, said the EU’s extension
into eastern Europe was a natural reunification with “the kidnapped
east”. But admitting Turkey would be quite different.
“(Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip) Erdogan says the EU should be
a crossroads of civilizations. We consider it is the home of a
civilization. European identity shouldn’t be a department store,”
Bourlanges said.

PRESS RELEASE
Catholicosate of Cilicia
Communication and Information Department
Contact: V. Rev. Fr. Krikor Chiftjian, Communications Officer
Tel: (04) 410001, 410003
Fax: (04) 419724
E- mail: [email protected]
Web:
PO Box 70 317
Antelias-Lebanon
THE GENERAL SECRETARY
OF UNITED BIBLE SOCIETIES IN ANTELIAS
ANTELIAS, LEBANON – Rev Dr. Miller Milloy, Director and General
Secretary of the United Bible Societies met His Holiness Aram I on
Sunday 5 December 2004, in his residence at the Cathoilicosate in
Antelias. Items pertaining to the new projects and activities of
the UBS, their collaborations with the Orthodox Churches, and the
translation of the Holy Bible to modern Armenian undertaken jointly
by the Armenian Catholicosate of Cilicia and the UBS, were on the
agenda of this meeting. His Holiness also shared with his guest a
number of ecumenical concerns, and particularly the emerging process
of reconfiguration in the life of the ecumenical movement.
On the same day Rev. Paren and Rev. Mashdotz as representatives of
His Holiness attended the public lecture given by Dr. Milloy.
##
The Armenian Catholicosate of Cilicia is one of the two Catholicosates
of the Armenian Orthodox Church. For detailed information about
the jurisdiction and the Christian Education activities in both the
Catholicosate and the dioceses, you may refer to the web page of the
Catholicosate, The Cilician Catholicosate,
the administrative center of the church is located in Antelias,
Lebanon.

ARMENIANS OF MARSEILLES TO HOLD RALLY AGAINST TURKEY’S MEMBERSHIP IN EUROPEAN
UNION ON DECEMBER 16
MARSEILLES, December 6 (Noyan Tapan). About 500 Armenians from
the French city of Marseilles held an action of protest before the
building of the Prosecutor’s Office on November 28 in connection with
the attack of the Turks on the five Armenians collecting signatures
before the building of the Mayor’s Office in Valance. The “Azg”
(“Nation”) newspaper reported about it quoting the Parisian “Armennews”
as a source. In response to the appeal of Ramkavar Azatakan, ARF
Dashnaktsutyun and other parties the Armenians of Marseilles demand
that the French authorities should punish the Turks with all the
strictness of the law. A delegation of the local Jewish Community also
participated in the rally besides the French political figures. During
the rally the Armenian organizations called on the Armenians of France
to participate in the rally to be held in Marseilles on December
16. Its purpose is to cease the process of Turkey’s joining the
European Union. This issue will be solved in Strasbourg on December 17.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

“MOST PART OF DESABLED PEOPLE’S PROBLEMS IS UNSOLVED IN ARMENIA,” EXECUTIVE
DIRECTOR OF “UNISON” PUBLIC ORGANIZATION THINKS
YEREVAN, December 6 (Noyan Tapan). The forum on the problems of
disabled people entitled “All Armenians Can” was held at the American
University of Armenia on December 3-5. It was held upon the initiative
of the Armenian Office of the ACCELS organization. According to
Director of Organization’s Armenian Office Elizabeth Vinship, the
purpose of the forum is to increase the awareness of the society
of the disabled people’s problems and to contribute to the change
of the attitude towards them. Armen Alaverdian, the Executive
Director of the “Unison” public organization on support to the
people having particular needs, said that at present, in contrast to
the Soviet years, the problems of the disabled people are at least
discussed. Part of them, is resolved, for example, grounds with incline
are constructed in the streets. But, according to A. Alaverdian,
most part of the problems remains unsettled, the conditions, under
which the disabled people could become full members of the society,
haven’t been established. A. Alaverdian, for example, noticed that
none of cultural entities in the republic has conveniences foreseen
for the disabled people, regardless of the act that the organization
has repeatedly applied for this issue to the corresponding bodies.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE DEVOTED TO 1600TH ANNIVERSARY OF OPENING OF FIRST
SCHOOL IN ARTSAKH TO BE HELD IN NKR IN 2005
STEPANAKERT, December 6 (Noyan Tapan). A scientific conference
devoted to the 1600th anniversary of the opening of the first school
in Artsakh will be held in Nagorno Karabakh in 2005. According to
Hamlet Grigorian, the Rector of the Artsakh State University, the
conference will be held in the second half of May. The scientists
of a number of countries expressed wish to participate in it. The
conference will held in Stepanakert, Shushi and in the territory of
the ancient Amaras temple, where the first school was opened. According
to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the NKR, Amaras temple occupies
special place in a number of historical monuments of Artsakh-Karabakh
as the spread of Christianity in the Armenian Communities of Artsakh
is connected with it. Centuries later this temple became one of the
famous centers of the spiritual and cultural life of Artsakh. It
is well known that Mesrop Mashtots began the first teaching of the
Armenian written language in the territory of Eastern Armenia, in
Amaras, and the first school was established there.