Testing time for Turkey
Editorial
Sentinel & Enterprise Online (Fitchburg, Mass.)
Monday, January 03, 2005
The European Union crossed a threshold recently that, just a few years
back, would have seemed unimaginable. The members decided that
negotiations could begin on the admission of Turkey to their union.
This is good news for Turkey, which has sought E.U. membership since
1987. But of course, admission is not a matter of mailing an application
to Brussels and awaiting the verdict. Although Turkey has made
substantial progress in the past years toward bringing its system of
governance into alignment with Europe’s, it has a long way to go.
The Turkish democracy remains strongly influenced by the military, and
the country’s economy is still some distance from basic free-market
principles.
Turkey’s treatment of minorities remains unsatisfactory, its
human-rights record is decidedly mixed, and freedoms of religion and
speech are far from the standards in Europe. Not least, Turkey continues
to deny the history of the Armenian genocide, and the Turkish army
occupies a third of the territory of a member of the European Union —
Cyprus — while refusing to recognize the Cypriot government. All of
these facts are incompatible with E.U. membership.
Talks are expected to last some dozen years, and in that time Turkey may
well transform itself to satisfy the European Union. If so, this will
mark a new day for Turks, and greatly benefit two immediate neighbors,
Armenia and Greece, which suffer from longtime Turkish hostility and (in
Armenia’s case) a devastating economic blockade. The Turkish government
has a sincere desire to move the country Westward, and the process of
E.U. accession should yield innumerable benefits.
Two questions, however, shadow the process: While the Turkish government
strongly favors E.U. membership, it is not clear that Turkish citizens do.
The second question is more complex. Turkey sits astride the border of
Europe and Asia, and is a longtime member of NATO, yet whether the
homeland of the onetime Ottoman Empire is “European” is debatable.
Turkey is a very big, poor and overwhelmingly Muslim country: Can it be
integrated into a European economic, political and cultural system that
is now very different from its own? Moreover, Turkey would be the
largest member of the E.U., which is already strained by several
comparatively non-affluent members.
None of these obstacles is insuperable, and while many Europeans have
reservations about Turkey, many others think that Turkish E.U.
membership makes sense. The next years will be a testing time: for
Turkey, for Europe, and for the meaning and future of European identity
and unity.
,1413,106~4989~2632159,00.html

Los Angeles Daily News
Jan 3 2005
Youths turn faith into action
Armenian church group starting fund-raising drive to help refugees in
Sudan
By Alex Dobuzinskis
Staff Writer
For Armenian-American youths in a Burbank-based church organization,
the mass killings of civilians in Sudan echo their own people’s
genocide, and they want to extend help.
To demonstrate that commitment, the Armenian Church Youth
Organization will start a $15,000 fund-raising initiative Thursday on
the observance of Armenian Christmas.
Sudanese youths have been invited to participate in the event, which
will be held at the Burbank headquarters of the Armenian Church of
North America Western Diocese.
April 24 is generally the date when Armenians mark the killings that
occurred from 1915 to 1923 in the Turkish Ottoman Empire.
Approximately 1.5 million died in what Armenians say was genocide.
The Turkish government always has denied genocide occurred and claims
the Armenian deaths were due to war.
“When we’re marching on April 24, when we’re (decrying) the crimes
that have been committed against us, we say, ‘Never again,”‘ said
Matthew Ash, youth director for the Western Diocese.
Ash sees parallels between the Armenian Genocide and the humanitarian
crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan, since both Turkey and Sudan
have denied accusations of genocide.
“It robs something from the victims’ families because they’re
suffering and the person who caused that suffering isn’t even
acknowledging it’s happening,” Ash said.
In recent months, tens of thousands have been killed or died of
disease in the Darfur region, where armed groups called Janjaweed and
pro-government militias have killed and raped villagers after rebels
took up arms last year, according to the United Nations. Aid workers
are faced with helping the more than 1.5 million people who have been
displaced by the conflict.
The $15,000 the ACYO plans to raise is expected to be enough to
provide food and shelter to 400 Sudanese refugees for 40 days,
according to the organization. The money will be sent to Care
International.
The ACYO was formed in 1946 and has 650 members in California and
Arizona. Most of its members are in their teens or early 20s.
Thera Der-Gevorgian, 17, of Glendale joined the organization eight
months ago and is part of the recently formed Burbank chapter.
She said she, too, sees similarities to the Armenian Genocide in
photos of the crisis in Darfur.
“Everything that happened during 1915 that happened to us the
Armenians is happening right now to them,” she said. “They’re just a
different color than us.”
The ACYO’s Burbank chapter meets at the Western Diocese headquarters
and has more than 10 members. The organization is trying to establish
a chapter in Glendale.
Archbishop Hovnan Derderian said youths with the ACYO have had
contact with members of the Sudanese community in Southern California
and that it is important to offer them support.
“After all, when we speak about religion and faith … faith should
be reflected in action,” Derderian said.
The ACYO plans to raise money for Sudan through a mailing campaign,
over the Internet and through appeals at events and plate collections
at churches.
One of the past projects of the ACYO was an initiative to support
hundreds of children orphaned by a 1988 earthquake in Armenia. Now
that many of those children are moving on to college, the ACYO has
launched a new initiative called Brighter Future for Armenia, to
provide nearly 300 students with $365 a year each to help pay for
college.

Interfaith rite launches inaugural
Deseret Morning News (Utah)
Monday, January 03, 2005
By Joe Bauman ([email protected])
A preview of an inaugural speech, lessons in the importance of kindness
and good deeds, prayers by representatives of several religions and
rousing songs by Utahns of varying ethnic backgrounds were highlights of
an interfaith music service Sunday night.
The service was a pre-inaugural celebration held at the First
Presbyterian Church, 12 C St. It attracted an estimated 300 Utahns,
including religious leaders, Gov.-elect Jon M. Huntsman Jr. and
Huntsman’s family.
Afterward, Huntsman held an impromptu press conference in which he
promised to try to “bring out the best our people have to offer,” and to
reach out and touch residents of the state.
On the eve of his inauguration, he said he was what his feelings were.
“It’s a combination of jubilation and fear,” he said. The fear was there
because he did not want to let people down, and the jubilation was
because “we’re really in a position to make changes in the state.”
President Thomas S. Monson, first counselor in the First Presidency of
The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints discussed the kindness
that other faiths perform, such as the Salvation Army collecting
contributions to help those in need, the Catholic Church’s St. Vincent
de Paul soup kitchen, the Salt Lake Dental Clinic and other charities.
When men and women of good will unite together in doing good, he said,
it helps eliminate weakness.
The Huntsman family members are “good people . . . doing noble work for
Utah and even all the world,” he said. He cited contributions the family
has made, including working to improve life in Armenia, and sponsoring
the Huntsman Cancer Institute.
During LDS meetings on Sunday, a letter was read about the disastrous
tsunami in southern Asia, he said. “I’m pleased that we’re there”
helping with the humanitarian effort in stricken countries, Pres. Monson
said. He said members were asked to give generously to help alleviate
the suffering.
Speaking of generous deeds, he added, “We can do it in our daily lives.”
President Monson cited the Charles Dickens classic, “A Christmas Carol,”
in which Jacob Marley’s ghost cries, “Mankind was my business,” and
Marley says he should have been attentive to the common welfare when he
was alive.
“And then of course he (Ebenezer Scrooge) had that marvelous awakening,”
he said. He urged people to think of God.
“We look to Gov. Huntsman and his associates” in the coming
administration, he added. “We stand behind them.”
President Monson said, “They have the community support, and we still
have challenges.”
The service began with a welcome from Michael J. Imperiale, pastor of
the First Presbyterian Church. He said his faith has always valued
dialogue and members of the religion want to be good friends and
neighbors. Hosting the pre-inaugural event was part of that outreach, he
indicated.
The Rev. Jerry K. Hirano of the Salt Lake Buddhist Temple expressed the
wish that Utahns contribute abundant good will.
Rabbi Joshua M. Aaronson of the Temple Har Shalom, Park City, talked of
the diverse beliefs of Utahns. God’s purpose for humanity must be to
enable every human to achieve a full, free life, he said.
“Let Utah become a light for other states, a beacon of good,” he said.
Children of the International Children’s Choir, whose costumes reflected
many countries and ethnic groups, sang several numbers.
“This is indeed a new day for Utah,” said community activist Pamela
Atkinson. “I have a vision for this administration. . . . There will be
a focus on all Utahns performing acts of service on a daily basis,” she
said.
Mary Anne Huntsman, the governor-elect’s oldest daughter, and Eugene
Watanabe performed a duet “Beautiful Savior,” the young woman playing
the piano and Watanabe the violin.
Readings from Hindu Sanskrit and comments were delivered by Pandit
Somayaji of Ganesha Hindu Temple, South Jordan, and Caru Das Adhikary of
the Krishna Temple in Spanish Fork.
A rousing version of “God Bless America” by the Ogden Second Baptist
Mass Choir shook the church, with drums, electric guitar and audience
participation.
Bishop Carolyn Tanner Irish of the episcopal Diocese of Utah prayed that
God would grant Utahns wisdom and reverence for the land, and that He
bless all with democracy and peace.
“I’ve been inspired by the music, I’ve been uplifted and edified by the
spoken word,” Huntsman told the group.
“The most important thing we can do is to come together as Utahns,” he said.
He said he celebrates the goodness of the state and the goodness of the
people. The past year and a half he has visited all of Utah. “I want all
of you to know that I found the heart and the mind and the soul” of the
state, he said.
“It has made me a better person.” What stands out to him most is the
ability as a community to reach out and touch the human heart. “I’m
going to do that and I hope all of you will do the same,” he added.
He called for respect for others of different backgrounds. “It is now
more important than ever that we reach out a loving hand.”
At the end of the day, Huntsman added, “it’s the human heart that
matters.” He pledged to do his best to promulgate policies to make the
state better.
Inauguration schedule, Utah Statehood Day
Monday: Inauguration ceremonies will be held at Abravanel Hall, 123 W.
South Temple. Doors open to ticket holders at 10 a.m.. All guests are to
be seated by 11:40 a.m., and at noon the ceremony begins. A receiving
line will be in the building’s lobby.
Tuesday: Utah Statehood Day Celebration will be held at the E Center,
3200 S. Decker Lake Drive, West Valley City. A free open house will be
held for all Utah residents. Doors open to the public at 5 p.m., opening
ceremonies start at 6 p.m., music groups and entertainment begin at 7 p.m.
,1249,600102151,00.html

ATTENTION READERS: Due to its semi-annual vacation, the California Courier
will not
Publish an Online Edition on Jan. 13, 2005. Publication will resume on
January 20, 2005.
Happy New Year and Armenian Christmas!
California Courier Online, January 6, 2005
1 – Commentary
Armenian Patriarch of Turkey
Issues Bold Message on Genocide
By Harut Sassounian
California Courier Publisher
2 – Andrew Torigian Named
AMAA Executive Director
3 – Diocese APN
To Host Jan 20
Reception
4 – Christmas Concert with Soprano Anna Mayilian,
Armiss Choir, Celebrates Haigazian Anniversary
5 – Armenian Language Course
Offered at University of Venice
6 – Genocide Monument
Council Announces
Design Competition
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1 – Commentary

Armenian Patriarch of Turkey
Issues Bold Message on Genocide
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier
Over the years, as various Armenian Church leaders in Turkey, under
pressure from Turkish officials, made disparaging remarks about the
Diaspora’s efforts for the recognition for the Armenian Genocide, I never
hesitated to criticize them. Therefore, it is only fair that these Church
leaders are to be commended whenever they bravely speak out on the Armenian
Genocide, jeopardizing their own position and personal safety.
Patriarch Mesrob II, in his New Year message to the Armenian community of
Turkey, made such a bold statement last week. Surprisingly, a portion of
his lengthy message is devoted to the 90th anniversary of the Armenian
Genocide. That segment of the statement, issued in three languages, is
entitled “The Great Disaster,” in English, “Meds Yegherni Hishadage,” in
Armenian; and “Buyuk Felaket,” in Turkish. The Patriarch’s statement
appeared on the Patriarchate’s web site and in the Armenian press of
Istanbul.
It is understandable that under the repressive conditions in Turkey, the
Patriarch is forced to use substitutes for the word genocide. For the
benefit of non-Armenian speaking readers, we should point out that “Medz
Yeghern” was used by Armenians to describe the Armenian Genocide before the
word genocide existed. “Medz Yeghern” could be translated alternatively as
” Great Disaster,” “Great Calamity,” or “Great Cataclysm.” Armenians
sometimes still refer to the Armenian Genocide as “Medz Yeghern,” just as
the Jews use the Hebrew word “Shoah” for the Holocaust.
Here is the English version of that segment of the Patriarch’s Message:
“Beloved Church members: one of the painful historical events … has
become known in Armenian literature as Medz Yeghern (The Great Disaster).
The Ottoman government of that time of the Committee for Union and
Progress, citing security reasons in the circumstances of the First World
War, exiled Armenian citizens living in the Ottoman Empire to the deserts
of Syria. However, because the necessary precautions were not taken,
hundreds of thousands of Armenian citizens lost their lives either near
their own homes, or on the journey, or in the desert, or were the victims
of inhuman attacks by opportunists. Of the Armenian population in the
Ottoman Empire, only a small proportion was saved from annihilation.
Whatever the given justification, this great unconscionable disaster has
passed into history as a human drama that took place at the beginning of
the 20th century. Wherever on the globe, every Armenian still feels the
imprint of this Great Disaster in his or her identity and still lives with
the trauma, in some way or another. Throughout the year 2005, on the 90th
anniversary of this event, Armenians will offer to God their prayers and
incense for the souls of their martyrs.”
While the Patriarch is careful not to use the word “Genocide,” – it is a
crime to do so in Turkey — his statement makes it amply clear that the
government of the Ottoman Empire was the organizer of the deportations that
led to the deaths of “hundreds of thousands” of Armenians. In addition to
outright murder, the United Nations defines as genocide the act of
“deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to
bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”
We should point out that the Patriarch, in his statement, uses the term
“annihilation,” meaning extermination or total destruction, which is
another way of saying genocide.
The Patriarch Mesrob II who is fluent in Armenian, Turkish and English, has
probably written the statement himself in all three languages. A careful
comparison of the three versions reveals subtle differences in the words
used to describe the Armenian Genocide. Even though it is practically
impossible to translate verbatim a text from one language to another, it is
noteworthy that the Armenian version contains the strongest words.
Finally, it is significant that the Patriarch made his bold remarks on the
genocide less than a week after the Prime Minister of Turkey, Abdullah Gul,
announced that the Turkish government would do everything
in its power to counter the Armenian efforts, particularly in view of the
90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide.
For the first time, and on the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the
Armenian Genocide, the Patriarch is properly and bravely suggesting that
Armenians in Turkey would be joining their compatriots around the globe in
remembering the “annihilation” of their ancestors. While Armenians might
not be able to hold any public commemorative events in Turkey on that date,
the Patriarch is certain that they carry in their souls the trauma of the
Genocide and the memory of their martyrs!
**************************************************************************
2 – Andrew Toriguian Named
AMAA Executive Director
PARAMUS, NJ – Andrew Torigian has been named Executive Director of the
Armenian Missionary Association of America (AMAA), the international
non-profit charitable organization serving in 22 countries.
Torigian had served as the AMAA’s President for an unprecedented seven
years, as Vice President for four years, as Treasurer for two years and as
Personnel Committee Chairman for 17 years. He had been a board member
since 1982, prior to resigning to accept the new post.
No stranger to the post, Torigian has served as acting Executive Director
for seven months in 2001, then for another seven months in 2003, and for
five months in 2004, temporarily filling vacancies, while still serving as
President.
Volunteering has been the hallmark of Torigian’s entire life, ever since he
joined the U.S. Navy Air Corps to be trained as a Navy pilot. He has
served as a Trustee, as well as Treasurer for 13 years of the Armenian
Presbyterian Church in Paramus, and is an Ordained Elder of the Church. In
1995, he was honored as the APC Man of the Year.
Among the many other Armenian organizations for which he has served, he is
on the Board of Directors of the Armenian American Medical Philanthropic
Fund since 1995, is a Vice President of the Board of Trustees of the Home
for the Armenian Aged in Emerson, New Jersey, is a trustee of the Hovnanian
School in New Milford, New Jersey, is on the Board of Managers of Haigazian
University, is a Fellow Trustee of the Armenian Assembly, and was the only
three-term Commander of the Knights of Vartan Lodge #38 and received its
Man of the Year Award in 1998.
His list of services for non-Armenian organizations include being a past
Master of Willard Sylvan Grove Lodge #250 F & A.M.; a member and former
Vice President of the New York Metro Electronics Representative
Association, and is the past Chairman of the Board of Directors of Electro,
producers of the largest electronic shows on the East Coast.
He has served on the Paramus Planning Board for five years and has been the
Commander of the Paramus American Legion Post #207 since 1988 and became
the first and only recipient of its Man of the Year Award, in 2000.
He is the only six-term President of the Paramus Veterans Council. He was
a member of the Bergen County Veterans Committee that established the
“Circle of Honor” at the County Courthouse in Hackensack, New Jersey. He
has been the President of the Paramus Republican Club, the largest in
Bergen County.
In addition, Torigian is an active member of the Gideons, the Paramus
Rotary Club and the Paramus Elks. He received the Humanitarian Award from
the National Conference of Christians and Jews in 2002 for his work in the
community.
Torigian received his BA from NYU’s Washington Square College and BS from
NYU’s School of Engineering where he was elected to Alpha Pi Mu and Tau
Beta Pi’s National Engineering Societies. He was President of Technilease
Corporation, a leasing/rental company specializing in electronic
test-and-measurement equipment before he retired in December 2003. He is a
Senior Life Member of the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers.
Torigian and his wife, Rose, have three children; Catherine Torigian,
Ph.D., Drew Torigian, M.D., and Christine Torigian, M.D.
***************************************************************************
3 – Diocese APN
To Host Jan 20
Reception
BURBANK, CA – The Western Diocese’s Armenian Professional Network will host
a Jan. 20 reception at the Diocese’s Hampar Room, 3325 North Glenoaks
Blvd., Burbank, for guests to meet with and learn about the Chamber of
Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Armenia who has recently opened a
branch office in Los Angeles.
The 7:30 p.m. reception, which includes light fare, will have speakers with
discussion to follow at 8 p.m.
edia to meet with and learn
Representatives of the CCI RA will introduce themselves to the community,
talk about the work and role of their regional office in Los Angeles, as
well as provide an overview of their activities and goals. An opportunity
will be provided for discussion.
This event is being sponsored by Nelly Dagstanyan, owner of Quizno’s at
6612 – 902 North Vermont Ave., Los Angeles.
The APN asks all those attending to bring their business cards to
facilitate networking and to assist the APN in creating a contact list for
similar future events.
For more information contact Vahe Ashjian at (818) 212-9976.
**************************************************************************
4 – Christmas Concert with Soprano Anna Mayilian,
Armiss Choir, Celebrates Haigazian Anniversary
BEIRUT – The latest event of the 50th anniversary celebrations of Haigazian
University, was a Christmas Concert on Dec. 20-21, in the sanctuary of the
First Armenian Evangelical Church of Beirut.
The concert featured the 60-voice “Armiss” Choir, conducted by Rev. Nerses
Balabanian, pianists Sevan Balabanian and Mathilde-Sandra Cholakian, and
the renowed artist, mezzo-soprano Anna Mayilian from Armenia.
University President Rev. Dr. Paul Haidostian, noted that this concert
carried a special message: “It is Armenia and Lebanon coming together. It
is talent and discipline joined. It is joy and awe put to music, and music
turned into a sign of life. It is a Christmas story told. It is an act of
hope in an anxious world. It is Haigazian and its supportive community
singing peace, love, and joy together.”
The capacity audience, which included the US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffrey
Feltman, Armenian Ambassador Areg Hovannissian, and other religious and
political officials and representatives, enjoyed classical and contemporary
musical masterpieces dedicated to Christmas. Among the pieces impressively
performed by Mayilian, the audience enjoyed little-heard settings of
Armenian songs.
In the past decade, Mayilian has established herself not only in the
Armenian milieu, but on the international stage as well, capturing numerous
European and American prizes. Founder of the “Saghmos” Cultural Center, and
the artistic director of “Music Masters of Armenia,” she released the
recording, “Anna Mayilian: Armenian Sacred Songs” last year, and currently
is preparing a new recording of the sacred music of Krikor Naregatsi.
The Armenian Evangelical Armiss Choir is named after the pen-name of the
pastor, poet, composer and painter, Rev. Armenag Missirian. Established in
1981 by founding conductor Vatsche Barsoumian, the choir was reconstituted
after the Lebanese war by Rev. Nerses Balabanian.
**************************************************************************
5 – Armenian Language Course
Offered at University of Venice
VENICE, Italy – The intensive summer course of Armenian Language and
Culture of the University of Venice will take place Aug. 1-19, in
collaboration with the Cultural Association Padus-Araxes. Exams will be
conducted on Aug. 20.
The course has three basic levels from Absolute Beginner to Advanced.
Lessons take place from Monday to Friday, five hours a day in the morning.
Students must be 18 years of age or older.
Tuition fee is 630 euros or its equivalent in other currency. Of this
amount, 400 euros must be sent as a registration fee before March 31. After
this date, the registration fee will be 500 euros. Total payment must be
completed on arrival day.
International back checks or money orders must be made to Associazone
Padus-Araxes, and mailed to the Association, c/o Dipt. Studi Eurasiatici –
S. Polo 2035 – 3-125 Venezia, Italia. Personal checks are not accepted.
Lodging is offered to participants at a Student Home (Residenz Abbazia) in
Venice. Accommodation fee from July 31 to August 22 included is 800 euros
for a single room; 600 euros for a double room. Lunch or dinner will cost
6.5 euros.
For application, send an e-mail to [email protected].
**************************************************************************
6 – Genocide Monument
Council Announces
Design Competition
GLENDALE – The Armenian Genocide Monument Council of Glendale (AGMCG)
announced on Dec. 22 the launching of their website
and the beginning of their Monument
design competition.
The AGMCG will oversee the design and construction of a commemorative
monument in the City of
Glendale dedicated to the victims of the Armenian Genocide. The monument
will serve as a befitting venue to begin the educational process of
honoring the memory of those who perished and acknowledging the memories of
the heroic deeds and acts of the Americans whose actions helped save
thousands of helpless Armenian men, women and children from the rage of
the Genocide.
The AGMCG is a newly established organization and is dedicated to enhancing
cross-cultural understanding amongst the different cultural and ethnic
groups in Glendale by promoting respect for past historical events and the
recognition thereof through continuous education, specifically that of the
Armenian Genocide.
In August of 2001, the City Council of Glendale adopted a motion to accept
the gift of a monument to honor the 1.5 million victims of the Armenian
genocide and the memory of Americans whose actions helped save thousands of
Armenian men, women and children from perishing in the genocide.
On April 8, 2003, the Glendale City Council approved the final
location/site for the Genocide monument. The AGMCG has been working very
closely with City staff to oversee the monument selection process and has
established a Selection Committee comprised of community leaders,
architecture and design experts and public officials.
The announcement of the winner of the competition will take place in April
of 2005. April 24, 2005 marks the 90th anniversary of the Armenian
Genocide. All parties interested in submitting a design may do so by
following the guidelines and rules for submission made available on the
AGMCG website.
For more information, visit
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*
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

La Nouvelle République du Centre Ouest
03 janvier 2005
Turquie : pourquoi tant d’hostilité ?
« Au sujet de la candidature de la Turquie à l’Union européenne, on
entend surtout les criailleries de gens qui parlent de tout et n’ont
rien vu. Les propos d’une lectrice, publiés dans vos colonnes (“Le
triomphe de l’empire ottoman”) m’ont fait bondir. Peut-on qualifier
de triomphe un processus engagé depuis quarante ans, qui n’aboutira
peut-être pas avant vingt ans, auquel il sera possible à tout instant
de mettre un terme et assorti de conditions aussi draconiennes ? Je
reconnais là le langage de ceux qui veulent faire de l’Europe un club
chrétien.
« Il se trouve que j’ai passé vingt étés en Turquie, que je crois
connaître assez bien ce pays, l’ayant parcouru en tous sens jusque
dans ses coins les plus reculés, y compris le Kurdistan et l’ancienne
Arménie, et que, loin d’être arriéré comme certains le pensent, il
traverse en ce moment une formidable movida, comparable à celle de
l’Espagne postfranquiste. C’est un pays extrêmement jeune, dynamique,
dont l’infrastructure routière se modernise à un rythme effréné, et
qui me semble désirer bien plus ardemment l’Europe que les derniers
adhérents qui ont montré, par leur taux d’abstention scandaleux aux
récentes élections européennes, qu’ils s’en moquaient comme d’une
guigne.
« Il paraît que la Turquie n’est pas en Europe. Certes. Mais en quoi
Chypre, qui se situe à la hauteur de la Turquie orientale, est-elle
plus européenne ? Un de vos lecteurs nous rappelait que l’Europe
allait de l’Atlantique à l’Oural, mais il me semble que l’Oural se
trouve bien plus à l’est que le point le plus oriental de la Turquie,
et dans ce cas nous serions en contact avec toutes les Républiques
caucasiques, bien plus dangereuses comme foyer d’agitation que les
voisins de la Turquie. »

The Jamestown Foundation
Friday, November 12 — Volume 1, Issue 126
EURASIA DAILY MONITOR
IN THIS ISSUE:
*Russia-EU summit rescheduled for late November
*Putin’s economic aide says call the dogs off Yukos
*Gazprom turns up the heat on Tbilisi
*Cold War rhetoric infects Yanukovych statements
Friday, November 12, 2004 — Volume 1, Issue 126
GAZPROM OR SHAH-DENIZ ? GEORGIA’S CHOICE OF STRATEGIC PARTNERS
by Vladimir Socor
Russia’s Gazprom is counting on three factors to rush Georgia, despite U.S.
advice, into a political decision to sell the country’s gas transportation
system to the Russian monopoly. Those factors are: the specter of winter,
the urgent need for capital injections into that system, and fortuitously
convergent support for such a sale by interested lobbyists and disinterested
exponents of economic ultra-liberalism in Tbilisi.
Gazprom’s takeover of internal distribution pipelines could lock Georgia
permanently into dependence on Russian gas by blocking the access of
Azerbaijani gas from Shah-Deniz to the Georgian market. The
Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey gas transit pipeline would not necessarily be
affected; but Georgia would no longer be able to benefit from this safeguard
against the high political risks of dependence on Russian supplies.
At present, Georgia is almost totally dependent on Russian gas, consuming
approximately 1 billion cubic meters annually. Gazprom’s export arm,
Gazeksport, currently sells it for $60 per 1,000 cubic meters; but it has
just decided to increase the price charged to South Caucasus countries to
$78 per 1,000 cubic meters, with partial pre-payment, effective from January
1, 2005. The price hike and its timing are adding to the pressure on Georgia
to turn its insolvent gas transport system over to Gazprom.
The state-owned Georgian Gas International Corporation (GGIC) operates
Georgia’s trunk pipelines. Distribution systems are owned by as many as 40
local companies, among whom the municipally owned Tbilisi Gas (Tbilgazi) is
by far the largest, politically most sensitive, and most likely target for a
Gazprom takeover attempt.
Gazprom is also targeting the transit pipeline that runs via Georgia to
Armenia for possible takeover. Under existing arrangements, Russia pays the
transit fees in the form of gas. In 2003, Georgia transited 1.2 billion
cubic meters of Russian gas to Armenia and received 120 million cubic meters
in compensation.
The Russian company and some Georgian officials are considering several
possible modalities of a Gazprom takeover. The options include: equity
transfers, straight buyout, or a Gazprom-GGIC joint venture, for all or
major parts of Georgia’s gas transportation system. Regarding the link to
Armenia via Georgia, Gazprom is considering the possibility of expanding its
capacity or rebuilding it entirely and using it in reverse as an outlet for
Iranian gas exports.
Former president Eduard Shevardnadze accepted a deal along those lines
during the twilight months of his rule. An agreement of intent envisaged
turning Georgia’s gas transportation network over to Gazprom. Shevardnadze
ignored Washington’s strong objections to that agreement in the final months
of 2003. The U.S. State Department’s special envoy for Caspian energy
affairs, Steven Mann, made the case against that intention one year ago, and
is making the case again now to prevent an expediency-based deal with
Gazprom against Georgia’s long-term national interests.
Gazprom holds out the incentive of stable gas supplies to Georgia and
overhauling the country’s gas transportation and distribution systems. Some
Georgian officials feel that the proposed deal would tide Georgia over the
next two winters, until Azerbaijani gas starts flowing. However, Georgia
would probably lose the opportunity to use Shah-Deniz gas, if Gazprom
acquires Georgia’s trunk pipelines. In that case, Gazprom could exercise
discretionary control over the access of Shah-Deniz gas to the Georgian
market. It would almost certainly block or manipulate that access and ensure
that Gazprom retains overwhelming market share in Georgia, not only for
commercial reasons (Georgia is a small market for Gazprom), but mainly for
political and strategic reasons.
The BP-led consortium, developing the Shah-Deniz gas project, will also own
and operate that gas transit pipeline, including the section in Georgia.
Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2006 under a 20-year sale and purchase
agreement. Georgia is slated to receive guaranteed volumes starting at 200
million cubic meters in the first year, rising gradually to 500 million
cubic meters by the sixth year, and continuing for another 14 years. Georgia
will pay a preferential price, starting at $55 in the first year and rising
at a rate of 1.5% annually.
In addition, Georgia will receive transit fees either in cash (at $2.50 per
1,000 cubic meters transiting Georgia, and rising at a rate of 2% annually)
or in the form of gas amounting to 5% of the volume transiting Georgia (that
volume will rise to 6.6 billion cubic meters, heading for Turkey, in the
sixth year and thereafter). Depending on the form of transit fees, the gas
from Shah-Deniz will cover between 50% and 83% of Georgia’s demand. On top
of that, Georgia will have an option to purchase Azerbaijani gas at market
prices.
This arrangement gives Georgia a unique set of advantages: first, the chance
to escape from dependence on Russian gas; second, lower prices (both
short-term and long-term); and, third, guaranteed deliveries from a
politically friendly, Western-managed supply source.
In Tbilisi, lobbying in favor of the sale to Gazprom is a non-transparent
process. Local observers trace it to a Shevardnadze-era gas trader who
became wealthy in the Russian gas import trade, and who aspires to regain
that niche for himself in the new conditions, trying to use a new contact
near the top, as he had in the old system. Entirely unrelated to that
effort, though coincident in the timing, Economics Minister Kakha Bendukidze
advocates the earliest possible state divestment of the gas transportation
system (and other state properties) by selling to whatever buyer, including
Gazprom — currently the only buyer in sight — if the price is right and
investment is forthcoming. Bendukidze, himself a businessman of unquestioned
integrity, is known to bring a fundamentalist liberal approach to the issue
of privatizing strategic state assets, with little regard for national
security implications.
Georgia’s gas transport system is in urgent need of a costly overhaul.
Turning the system over to Gazprom is not the only financing option,
however. With a rapidly growing state budget, incipient economic recovery,
high level of foreign aid, and renewed access to international credit,
Georgia can devise a financing package for that system’s rehabilitation
while retaining national control, so as to break out of the dangerous
dependence on Gazprom when Shah-Deniz gas comes on stream.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Los Angeles Times
Jan 2 2004
Mother Fights Schools on Cable TV
The woman speaks in Armenian about the Glendale district’s
English-learner policy. Officials say she spreads fear and mistrust.
By Erika Hayasaki, Times Staff Writer
The Glendale mother appeared on local cable TV station Channel 26,
much like a veteran news anchorwoman. In Armenian, she laid into the
Glendale Unified School District: Teachers don’t teach. Board members
don’t listen. School officials don’t translate.
“We are here because we care about our children and what is going on
in our schools,” she said, looking distinguished in her sparkly green
earrings and matching scarf. A phone number flashed across the
screen. “We are live. You can call.”

Using cable access time paid for out of her own pocket, Naira
Khachatrian, 44, has become an influential voice among Armenian
parents whose children make up about half the 29,400-student Glendale
district.
A mother with two children enrolled, she believes the district is
shortchanging Armenian students by placing many of them in
English-learner programs or special education courses and failing to
reach out to immigrant parents.
The district dismisses Khachatrian as a gadfly who has spread fear
and mistrust among parents. School officials say she does not explain
the extensive programs it offers to Armenian-immigrant students,
including translation services for parents and special academic
tutoring.
Schools Supt. Michael F. Escalante said that over the last year
Khachatrian has spread “rumors about outlandish information. I don’t
speak Armenian and it’s done all in Armenian.”
Khachatrian has singled out teachers and questioned their
credentials.
She once compared school district officials to those who committed
atrocities during the Armenian genocide, the killing of 1.5 million
people by the Turks between 1915 and 1922. School officials said they
have given up on countering her numerous statements.
One official says Khachatrian has made positive contributions.
School board President Greg Krikorian said the show has bridged a
communication gap with Armenian-immigrant parents who are struggling
to navigate district bureaucracy.
“There are things we do have to improve,” Krikorian said, although
he, too, is frustrated by the comments on her show. “Maybe they’re
not understanding the information we give to them.”
Khachatrian, who immigrated to the United States in 1991, has seized
on the lack of communication between Armenian immigrant parents and
the district.
A former engineer who is married to a contractor, her involvement in
school district politics began when her oldest son was placed in
English-learner classes more than a decade ago. She said she did not
understand what the classes entailed or that she had a choice in her
son’s enrollment.
About one-third of Armenian students in the Glendale district are
enrolled in English-learner classes, a separate track in which math,
science and history are taught while integrating English skills into
the required curriculum. Teachers use more pictures, gestures and
simple English to better communicate lessons
Without such a program, district officials say, students struggle
through regular coursework because they have not mastered English.
Parents must give their permission before children are enrolled in
the voluntary program.
Once enrolled, a student typically stays on the English-learner track
until he or she passes a proficiency test.
Khachatrian says the district is shortchanging some students who she
believes are being placed in the program unnecessarily.
Khachatrian said she can relate to Armenian parents who do not
understand the rules.
“The one way we can change these people is we have to educate the
parents,” she said. “That’s why we came up with that idea” of going
on television.
Every few days or weeks, Khachatrian pays $500 to $800 for an
hour-long slot on the Armenian Media Group of America Inc. cable
channel, which serves more than 27,000 viewers in the Los Angeles
area. Khachatrian co-anchors with another Glendale parent and friend,
Hasmig Aslanian.
During a recent broadcast, more than a dozen parents phoned in asking
about translators, college admissions rules and the federal No Child
Left Behind law – issues that the district does not believe she is
qualified to answer.
She said she has become a self-made local celebrity. “Now when I go
to the store,” Khachatrian said, “everybody is stopping me.” The
show’s popularity also prompts about 50 parents a day to call her at
home with more questions, she said.
“People call Jerry Springer” too, Escalante said. “This is America,
so people have those rights. It requires us to do additional work to
properly inform to those people.”
Krikorian says the district is making progress in its outreach
efforts.
He has organized Armenian community forums for parents and groups to
talk about the schools. The district also aired television programs
on an Armenian station, but Khachatrian would call in live and
criticize district officials, he said.
Though he supports the English-learner program, Krikorian said the
district should evaluate its progress and the length of time students
are enrolled in it.
“What concerns me is she’s getting people [who] belong in this
program out,” Krikorian said.
District officials are “scared of her. They’re scared,” said Vazken
Movsesian, a Glendale priest who runs an after-school program and
supports Khachatrian. He said he noticed many students “hitting their
heads against the wall because they were frustrated, because they
couldn’t move ahead.”
He met Khachatrian at a school board meeting. “For the first time I
saw a woman, Naira, who was really advocating for the students,” he
said. “She had no other motive.”
Some parents said the TV broadcast is their main link to
understanding district policies.
Eskouhi Irzakhanian, the mother of a fifth-grader in Glendale
Unified, called Khachatrian after watching the program earlier this
year.
She believes the district unfairly placed her son in special
education classes and did not explain why. “He’s just lazy,” she
said, “but laziness is not disability.”
She signed consent forms without knowing what they meant. It was
Khachatrian who explained her rights.
“In my country, Armenia, we know what’s going on. We know the laws.
We grew up there,” Irzakhanian said. “But here, we are new. We need
someone to explain.” Without the TV show, she added, “how would we
know?”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Reuters, UK
Jan 2 2005
World’s Assyrians savour Swedish soccer saga
By Daniel Frykholm
SODERTALJE, Sweden (Reuters) – Swedish football team Assyriska is a
household name for Assyrians around the world.
So when it played for a spot in Sweden’s premier division, Ninos
Gawrieh and some 30 friends huddled around a television in a house in
the Syrian town of Kamishly, cheering it on.
Thousands of other people around the world were also watching the
game, hoping that the team would cap its 30-year history with
promotion and a hint of glory for the scattered minority whose name
it carries, the Assyrians.
“Assyriska feels like a national team for the entire group,” said
club chairman Zeki Bisso.
“For all of us who were oppressed in our home countries for many
years … this felt superb, it was something every Assyrian wanted to
take pride in,” he told Reuters.
A Christian minority from the historical region of Mesopotamia
between the rivers Euphrates and Tigris in the Middle East, the
Assyrians have never had a state of their own, living mainly in
Syria, Iraq and Turkey.
They say hundreds of thousands of their forebears were killed in the
Turkish Ottoman Empire during World War One, alongside 1.5 million
Armenians and other Christian minorities. Turkey denies accusations
of genocide.
Assyrians have spread across the globe since, although many still
live in Iraq and Syria. Researchers say the current number is
unclear, possibly between one and two million.
“There has been quite a lot of confusion and loss of identity, which
makes this football club something that is finally positive and
uniting,” said David Gaunt, a history professor at Sodertorn
University College in Stockholm.
BY A HAIR’S BREADTH…
Assyriska was formed in 1974 as part of a club for a growing number
of Assyrians who had moved to Sodertalje in central Sweden.
It has come a long way from the 1975 season when it failed to notch
up a single point in the country’s seventh division and was outscored
by 101 goals to 11.
It clinched its premier league place after a nail-biting season,
which finished with a twist.
Assyriska lost its chance for a top spot when rivals Orgryte scored a
winning goal in extra time in the second of two legs of a play-off.
“Everybody was so depressed, they were crying. They reacted even
stronger than me, and I come from here!” said Gawrieh, a Sodertalje
resident who was visiting Kamishly at the time of the Orgryte match.
A day later, the Swedish Football Association gave Assyriska a
premier league place after all when it relegated another top division
club, Orebro, because of poor finances.
“At that moment we just felt such enormous joy, I figured everybody
in the world is Assyrian now, even God is Assyrian, or at least a
supporter,” said Robil Haidari, the club’s marketing director.
“People rushed to the club house and in a matter of minutes we had
hundreds of people here celebrating.”
WORLDWIDE FOLLOWING
Assyrians around the world can follow Assyriska’s games on the newly
established satellite television channel, Suroyo-tv, which broadcast
the Orgryte matches to 82 countries, including North America.
Busloads of fans from Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands attended
the game.
“Assyriska is very well known and adored by Assyrian fans throughout
the United States and Canada,” Firas Jatou, an Assyrian living in
California, told Reuters by e-mail.
“Here on the west coast, it would be very difficult to find any
Assyrian American who is not aware of Assyriska,” he added.
Assyriska will get no free ride in the 2005 premier league season,
which kicks off in April.
“My bet is they’ll end in the 10th spot (of 14). Anything higher is
unrealistic,” said Jan Majlard, soccer reporter and commentator at
the Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet.
“They already have the technical skills, now they need to develop the
physical side. It seems that Assyriska will be the team to follow
this season and it will be fun to see if they are able to keep their
playfulness and bohemian style,” he added.

The Taipei Times
Sun, Jan 02, 2005
Ukraine celebrates a new beginning and hope for the future
AFP , KIEV
Sunday, Jan 02, 2005,Page 1
Advertising Ukraine looked with hope to the future yesterday at the onset of
the New Year after Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich resigned and all but
admitted losing last weekend’s historic presidential rerun vote.
In tumultuous scenes on Kiev’s main Independence Square, 100,000 people
packed into the city’s central point to ring in the New Year with victorious
opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko and Georgian President Mikhail
Saakashvili, who led a “rose” revolution in Tbilisi last year.
Speaking before the crowd as fireworks lit the night sky, Saakashvili hailed
Ukraine’s “orange revolution” that brought Yushchenko to power as “a triumph
of good over evil.”
Yushchenko — the declared winner of last Sunday’s presidential poll — took
center stage to reiterate that “Ukrainians had been independent for 13
years, but now they are free.”
Yanukovich resigned from his post and said that his appeals over the Dec. 26
vote were unlikely to be granted, but stopped short of conceding defeat in
the poll, which would have brought Ukraine’s six-week election saga to an
end.
“I have made a decision and am formally submitting my resignation,”
Yanukovich said in a televised address. “I find it impossible to occupy any
post in a government headed by these authorities.”
“Concerning the election results, we are keeping up the fight but I don’t
have much hope for a just decision from the central election commission and
the supreme court,” he said.
Yanukovich repeated his assertion that “external forces” were responsible
for his defeat in the Dec. 26 vote.
But he got no support from Ukraine’s outgoing President Leonid Kuchma, who
called on the nation during his New Year address to “accept the democratic
choice” made in the presidential poll.
“In 2005 Ukraine will have a new president and the whole Ukraine must accept
this democratic choice as its own — because this man will need your
support,” he said without naming the election’s declared winner, Yushchenko.
Kuchma spoke as tens of thousands of people massed in Independence Square,
the epicenter of the “orange revolution” where shortly before midnight,
pro-West Yushchenko and Saa-kashvili basked in the success of their
respective peaceful uprisings against Soviet-era regimes.
Yushchenko’s “orange revolution” marked the second year in a row that
peaceful protests headed by a Western-leaning leader swept out a
Russia-friendly regime in an ex-Soviet nation.
Moscow has accused the US of fomenting the unrest in order to install allies
in its strategic backyard, charges that Washington has denied.
But opposition movements in authoritarian-leaning former Soviet republics
and Russia have hailed the peaceful uprisings and in the heat of the
“orange” demonstrations, Belarussians, Armenians, Azeris and Russians
mingled with Ukrainian protesters in central Kiev.
Yushchenko mounted 17 days of mass protests after he refused to concede
defeat to Yanukovich in a Nov. 21 runoff because of fraud.
The supreme court annulled the election due to massive ballot-rigging and
ordered a historic rerun vote, which Yushchenko won by more than 2.2 million
votes.
This story has been viewed 104 times.

The Jamestown Foundation
Thursday, December 2 — Volume 1, Issue 138
IN THIS ISSUE:
*Moscow slaps economic sanctions on Abkhazia
*Will Ukraine crisis make Moscow tighten its grasp on Central Asia?
*Kazakh election monitors found no problems with Ukrainian vote
*Baku asks UN to rule on Armenian settlements in Karabakh
————————————————————————
RUSSIA BLOCKADING ABKHAZIA TO OVERTURN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
On December 1, Russia’s government introduced a set of blockade
measures against Abkhazia for the declared purpose of preventing the
inauguration of president-elect Sergei Bagapsh, victor over the
Moscow-backed candidate Raul Khajimba in Abkhazia’s October 3
presidential election. Gennady Bukayev, an aide to Russian Prime
Minister Mikhail Fradkov, announced the sanctions at a news briefing
in Moscow.
The measures, mainly economic but also apparently entailing some
military aspects, include: cutting off the railway connection between
Abkhazia and Russia; severely restricting cross-border passage for
Abkhaz residents and transport at checkpoints manned by Russian border
troops on the so-called “Russian-Abkhaz border” (legally a section of
the Russia-Georgia border); quarantining the transport of Abkhaz-grown
citrus fruit to Russia at that border; placing Russia’s coastal navy
on alert along that border’s maritime sector; and preparing for a
complete blockade, “If further unlawful actions by Bagapsh result in a
further deterioration of the situation in Abkhazia.”
Bukayev was explicit about the sanctions’ political purpose: “The
Russian leadership supports the legitimate Abkhaz president Vladislav
Ardzinba’s decision to stage a new election for Abkhazia’s
presidency. Bagapsh and the criminal organizations that back him are
trying to seize power by force of arms. The Russian leadership has
made its earnest decision in order to prevent the escalation of
violence and ensure the safety of Russia’s citizens. These measures
are not directed at the people of Abkhazia and will be lifted as soon
as the situation stabilizes” (Interfax, NTV Mir, December 1).
It was apparently on November 25 that the Kremlin decided to step in
forcefully and reverse the momentum in Abkhazia toward recognition of
Bagapsh as winner and his scheduled inauguration on December
6. Consequently, and characteristically, Moscow’s rhetoric is now
“criminalizing” the president-elect, notwithstanding the fact that he
has been declared winner by Abkhazia’s electoral commission,
legislature, high court, and other bodies that Moscow itself had all
along touted as Abkhazia’s lawful bodies. The invocation of “Russia’s
citizens” is key to the above-referenced statement. Having conferred
its citizenship en masse to Abkhazia’s residents, Russia has until now
used this fait accompli to claim rights of protection over them. Now,
however, Moscow uses the same argument in claiming a right to impose
sanctions on “its” citizens. In sum, Russia reserves the right to deal
with “its” citizens as it sees fit. The message to Abkhazia is that
“stabilizing the situation” means overturning the election of Bagapsh
as a condition for lifting the Russian sanctions.
The sanctions’ impact could be devastating. Employment in Russia
(often in the shadow economy) and cross-border shuttle trading are
survival matters for Abkhazia’s residents. In winter, citrus fruit
exports to Russia are the main source of revenue. The “temporary”
sanctions are timed precisely to the citrus harvest in Abkhazia and
the pre-Christmas peak of Abkhaz citrus sales in Russian cities.
Governor Alexander Tkachov of Krasnodar Krai (adjacent to Abkhazia)
had called for the imposition of sanctions on November 22-23, publicly
urging that the border be closed in response to the political
situation in Abkhazia. He added a call for stopping the payment of
pensions to Abkhazia’s freshly baked Russian citizens, unless Bagapsh
yields ahead of December 6 (Itar-Tass, Interfax, November
22-23). Tkachov’s statements often seem out of line because he belongs
to the establishment’s ultra-nationalist fringe. However, it sometimes
turns out that he heralds government decisions shortly before these
are officially announced. For example, in August 2003 he urged the
construction of the dam in the Kerch Strait toward Tuzla Island,
encroaching on Ukraine’s territory — a move that soon turned out to
be Russian government policy. In June 2004, Tkachov threatened that
Cossack and other “volunteers” would be sent to South Ossetia against
Georgia; they were indeed sent and advertised by Russia’s authorities
shortly afterward.
The economic sanctions are clearly designed to pressure Bagapsh’s
supporters into withdrawing their support and accepting Ardzinba’s
decision to stage a new presidential election. But even the Russian
government functionary Nodar Khashba, a native Abkhaz recently
installed as prime minister in Sukhumi to support Ardzinba and
Khajimba, opposes the sanctions. Within hours of the Russian
government’s announcement, Khashba told Russian media, “Ordinary
inhabitants, an overwhelming majority of whom are Russia’s citizens,
must not be made to suffer.” Khashba announced that he would appeal to
the Russian government to rescind the sanctions, implying at the same
time that Moscow’s political demands should be met (Itar-Tass,
December 1).
In Sukhumi, the outgoing and deeply ailing president Ardzinba — or
those acting in his name — and hard-line pro-Moscow groups are using
the argument that a Bagapsh presidency would irreparably damage
Abkhazia’s relations with Russia (the sanctions are cited as evidence)
and conversely, overturning the election result and staging a new
election are prerequisites to restoring relations with
Russia. Ardzinba’s November 29 proclamation, and an accompanying
statement by paramilitary groups supporting him, vows to stop Bagapsh
supporters from duplicating in Abkhazia the current events in Ukraine
or the earlier ones in Tbilisi, Ajaria, and Serbia that led to regime
change (Apsnypress, November 29).
–Vladimir Socor

RUSSIA’S SECURITY INFLUENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA INCREASES AS UKRAINE
CRISIS UNFOLDS
Central Asian political leaders are watching events in Kyiv closely,
as the Ukrainian crisis may affect the future foreign policy choices
they make between the West and Russia. Meetings of the CIS Defense
Ministers Council, at the Staff for Coordinating Military Cooperation
in Moscow on November 25, indicated a strong desire for further
strengthening the existing CSTO security mechanisms within Central
Asia. Indeed, these meetings, partly under the umbrella of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), appear to pave the way
for the future expansion of the CSTO Rapid Deployment Forces (CRDF),
to as much as 10,000 personnel (Nezavisimaya gazeta, November 26).
Nikolai Bordyuzha, Secretary-General of the CSTO, confirmed the
interest in enhanced levels of CSTO military cooperation, as member
states examined a model concept for forming a joint group of troops in
the Central Asian region. In his words, the document approved at the
meeting provides for creating a large joint group of troops including
formations from the armed forces of CSTO states (Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan). This potentially numbers a total of
10,000 personnel. The group could therefore become up to four times
the current strength of the CRDF, currently tasked with operating in
Central Asia during a security crisis. Moscow’s foothold in this
mechanism is secure, since it has guaranteed the main striking force
of the group will be elements drawn from the Russian military base in
Tajikistan and its air force base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan.
Of course, attempts to strengthen Russia’s security influence within
Central Asia are not new, and have been a recurring theme in the
region since the deployment of U.S. and Western military forces into
the region in support of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2001. But
recent developments within Central Asian capitals seem to present a
window of opportunity for Moscow to reclaim lost ground in the region.
Kazakhstan has been the only Central Asian member of the CSTO that has
espoused clearly autonomous and pro-Western military cooperation
policies. While the others have more readily accepted
collective-security arrangements with Russia as the linchpin in this
system, Kazakhstan, for instance, has advanced its plans to forge
ahead with reforming and building its Navy in the Caspian Sea by 2007
with U.S. support. However, as the situation in Ukraine is played out,
there will be clear lessons for those pursuing pro-Western policies in
Kazakhstan, which may favor Moscow’s efforts to stem the westward
drift of the former Soviet republics along its borders.
On November 25 in Moscow, a protocol was finally ratified that creates
the legal basis for increasing and offering supplies of military
hardware to CSTO countries at preferential financial rates. Valery
Loshchinin, Russia’s First Deputy Foreign Minister, believes that the
agreement will facilitate further military integration among CSTO
member states and compel greater levels of security cooperation.
Kazakhstan’s military reform priorities, announced on November 26,
included a commitment to raise the level of defense spending from one
percent of GDP to 1.2 percent by 2007. The Kazakhstani Ministry of
Defense also defined a set of priority investment projects, which will
be implemented in the next three years. These include constructing
housing in Astana, military facilities in the country’s south and
west, improving the facilities of military airfields, and building a
national defense university, as well as developing modernized
communications systems. All these plans, from the Caspian-orientated
military facilities in Kazakhstan’s western region to procurement of
communications equipment, demand closer cooperation with the United
States and Western countries in order to be effective.
Kozy-Korpesh Dzhanburchin, Deputy Defense Minister for Economy and
Finance, commented that Kazakhstan is determined to tailor its
military development to its security needs: “In accordance with
national security priorities, close attention is currently being paid
to the southern and western directions, where military and other
facilities are planned to be built actively as well,”
(Interfax-Kazakhstan, November 25).
The uncertain political situation in Ukraine, a key state for the
future transportation of Central Asian energy into European markets,
has raised fears among the governing elites in Central Asia
considering overtly pursuing close relations with the United
States. The impetus towards democracy, notoriously slow in these
states, is a risk that each has weighed carefully in recent years,
while recognizing that similar pressures do not attend close relations
with Moscow. Elections looming in Uzbekistan later in December and
those in 2005 in Kyrgyzstan, coupled with the recent bombings of Otan
offices in Almaty, (see EDM, November 30) magnify still further the
concerns in the regions’ capitals. For the Soviet-bred autocrats
running these states, democracy may be coming too close to the
region. In security terms at least, Moscow has prepared the ground for
improved levels of security integration, should its uncertain allies
in Central Asia choose this option.
–Roger N. McDermott

KAZAKHSTAN’S OPPOSITION TAKING NOTES ON YUSHCHENKO’S STRATEGY
With their own presidential election drawing nearer, officials in
Astana might prefer to turn off all television channels broadcasting
the contentious presidential election events in Ukraine. Instead,
state-run media in Kazakhstan have done little more than re-broadcast
a few images of the street demonstrations in Kyiv every day.
In contrast to the seeming indifference of state officials toward the
Ukrainian elections, a group of opposition leaders flew to Kyiv to
observe the November 21 runoff. On returning home, one observer,
Marzhan Aspandiyarova, a leader of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan
(DCK), said that she was impressed by the transparency of election
procedures at the polling stations she visited in Ukraine. She said
there were fewer cases of vote stealing and fraud than in
Kazakhstan. Unlike Kazakhs, Aspandiyarova speculated that Ukrainians
did not tolerate any pressure from the authorities. She also admitted
that the opposition movement in Kazakhstan failed to rally people for
mass protests after the September parliamentary elections, which the
opposition declared to be unfair and illegitimate. According to
Aspandiyarova, the roots of the Kazakh opposition’s weakness lie in
the fact that many of its leaders come from government or business
circles (navi.kz, December 1).
Indeed, the popular support enjoyed by the opposition after the
creation of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan has waned since the
September elections. One explanation for that appears to be the
relative social and economic stability and much-publicized government
programs to reduce the rate of unemployment, solve housing problems,
and raise pensions. These steps, however belated, are helping the
state to disarm the opposition ahead of the 2006 presidential
elections. However, Tolen Tokhtasynov, a member of the Coordinating
Council of Opposition Forces in Kazakhstan who also observed the
Ukrainian elections, believes that the main reason for the dwindling
popularity of the opposition in Kazakhstan is the inability of its
ambitious leaders to work out a common strategy. Nevertheless, he is
convinced that in the upcoming elections, the main opposition groups
— the DCK, the pro-democratic Ak Zhol party, and the Communist Party
of Kazakhstan — will join forces and put up a single candidate for
the presidency. Paradoxically, Tokhtasynov, a prominent opposition
figure and irreconcilable critic of the regime, thinks that Dariga
Nazarbayeva, the daughter of President Nursultan Nazarbayev would be
the best choice for this position (navi.kz, December 1).
The assertions that the opposition in Kazakhstan is not as active as
it is in Ukraine or Georgia may be only partly true. Protests over the
controversial September parliamentary elections are ongoing. The
co-chairman of Ak Zhol, Alikhan Baimenov won a seat on the party-list
ballot but has refused to work in the newly elected parliament,
alleging that the elections were undemocratic and unfair and that it
is unethical to be part of the “illegitimate” parliament. But such
isolated protests go almost unnoticed by the general public, which was
greatly influenced by the observers who overwhelmingly recognized the
parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan as democratic and free of
serious violations. In this situation, the opposition is largely seen
as a power-hungry political force without any clearly defined and
socially important objectives. “Our opposition would like to pose as
staunch fighters like the Ukrainian ranks. But three major political
organizations [international observers] could not convincingly show
the world the shortcomings of the parliamentary elections in
Kazakhstan. The Ukrainian elections revealed how immature and weak are
our democratic groups, which are incapable of consistently defending
the interests of the people who follow them,” writes the independent
weekly Altyn Orda (Altyn Orda, November 26).
It is hard to imagine the Ukrainian scenario playing out in
Kazakhstan’s presidential elections, although the alignment of
political forces and the authoritarian system inherited from the
totalitarian Soviet system display some similarity. Political analyst
Dos Koshim, an observer in Ukraine, argues that Ukrainian-style
standoffs between the opposition and the ruling elite cannot take
place in Kazakhstan, where the society is split into Kazakh- and
Russian- speaking populations, rather than united for a common
political goal. Any political action not supported by Kazakhs is
doomed to failure. But if the state does not make an effort to improve
the current course of social and political development, it may lead to
a crisis of Ukrainian proportions in the next decade (Ak Zhol
Kazakhstan, November 26).
Some analysts hold the view that the outcome of the Ukrainian election
crisis may have palpable geopolitical consequences for Kazakhstan,
rather than an impact on its internal policy. If Russia loses Ukraine,
then it will probably strengthen its military and political presence
in Kazakhstan, using such instruments as the Eurasian Economic
Community. The director of the Kazakh Institute of Socio-Economic
Analysis and Forecasting, Sabit Zusupov, warns that by openly
interfering with the election process in Ukraine, Russia revealed its
geopolitical intentions and resorted to a hard-line policy reminiscent
of the Cold War era (Epoha, November 26). Official sources in
Kazakhstan, unlike opposition media and independent analysts, are too
circumspect to express their views on the Ukrainian elections. Perhaps
this wait-and-see attitude is the best policy for the Nazarbayev
regime in this unpredictable and precarious situation.
–Marat Yermukanov

AZERBAIJAN TAKES KARABAKH CASE TO THE UN: A STEP BACK OR FORWARD?
Perhaps for the first time in the past ten years, Azerbaijan has
departed from the traditional path of peace negotiation on the
Karabakh conflict and taken its case to the UN General Assembly. On
November 23, the plenary meeting of the 59th session of the General
Assembly began discussing an Azerbaijan-sponsored resolution entitled,
“The Situation in the Occupied Territories of Azerbaijan.” Since 1993
the Karabakh peace process has been under the patronage of the OSCE’s
Minsk group, co-chaired by Russia, the United States, and France. This
latest action taken by Azerbaijan’s political leadership shows Baku’s
desire to seek alternative ways to break the deadlocked process.
Speaking at the session, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, Elmar
Mammadyarov, noted that for the past ten years Azerbaijan had remained
committed to the 1994 cease-fire, which indicated the country’s desire
to solve the conflict through negotiation. At the same time,
Mammadyarov expressed Azerbaijan’s concern over Armenia’s growing
settlement programs in the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. “While
the negotiations are being held, the Armenian side is conducting a
mass settlement of the occupied territories . . . This program is
implemented by the Department of Refugees and IDPs [internally
displaced persons] of the Armenian government and is called ‘Return to
Karabakh.’ It is financed by a special fund in Armenia in violation of
UN General Assembly resolutions, international humanitarian law, and
the Geneva Convention of 1949,” he noted (Turan Info, November 24).
The Azerbaijani side claims that thousands of Armenian families have
been settled in Lachin, Kelbadjar, and other occupied regions of
Azerbaijan, with the aim of increasing the Armenian population in
Karabakh to 300,000 by 2010. Armenia vigorously denies this. Armen
Martirosyan, Armenia’s representative to the UN, has noted that the
Armenian government was not supporting this process and that there was
no need for the UN to interfere in this issue, the Azerbaijani daily
Zerkalo reported on November 25. “Nagorno-Karabakh has never been and
will never become part of Azerbaijan,” Martirosyan added.
Meanwhile, Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian warned that
discussing the Karabakh conflict at the UN General Assembly could put
an end to the ongoing “Prague talks” between the foreign ministers of
Armenia and Azerbaijan. “Should Azerbaijan choose the latter approach
[taking the issue to other venues, seeking separate solutions], the
Azerbaijani authorities will have to negotiate with the
Nagorno-Karabakh leadership” (RFE/RL Newsline, November
10). Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, while attending the 55th
anniversary of the “Oil Rocks” city on the Caspian Sea on November 22,
said that these statements cause him only a “smile,” and he noted that
it was Armenia who is behind the occupation of the Azerbaijani
territories, not Karabakh (Turan Info, November 22).
Interestingly enough, the Azerbaijani government initiative has
sparked opposition even among the co-chairs of the Minsk group.
Speaking on behalf of the three co-chairs, U.S. representative Susan
Moore noted that Azerbaijani concerns could have been addressed by the
OSCE and that she supported the idea of a fact-finding mission within
the framework of the Minsk group (Echo, November 24). The three
co-chairs have asked the UN General Assembly not to take any action
that could negatively affect their efforts.
The Azerbaijani leadership has tried to convince the interested
parties that their initiative with the UN is not an effort to derail
the existing Minsk process. “Azerbaijan does not put the solution of
the conflict within the UN as a goal” said Deputy Foreign Minister
Araz Azimov (525-ci Gazet, November 27). Yet, perceiving the draft
resolution as Azerbaijan’s attempt to seek alternative ways to solve
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia and the co-chairs of the Minsk
group became fearful of opening Pandora’s box. Armenian Diaspora
groups in the United States have launched a broad campaign against the
draft resolution. A press release from the Armenian National Committee
of America reported that Congressman Frank Pallone (D-NJ), known for
his strong support of Armenia, was urging U.S. Secretary of State
Colin Powell and U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Danforth to vote “no”
on the “destructive resolution” (, November 23).
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, sees no concrete results from the ten years of
activity by the Minsk group and therefore feels pressured to knock on
other doors. Recently, the Council of Europe’s political committee
began discussing a report on the Karabakh conflict prepared by British
deputies David Atkinson and Terry Davis.
–Fariz Ismailzade

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