Poraz ‘repulsed’ by cases of Jews spitting on Christians
By Relly Sa’ar, Haaretz Correspondent and Agencies

Ha’aretz, Israel
Oct 13 2004

Interior Minister Avraham Poraz issued a strongly worded statement
Tuesday against incidents of Jews spitting at Christian clergy in
Jerusalem, saying he was “repulsed” by the repeated attacks.”

Poraz was referring to the most recent case of such behavior, when a
yeshiva student spat at a cross carried by Armenian archbishop
Nourhan Manougian in a procession on Sunday, police said. A fistfight
broke out, during which the archbishop’s medallion, worn by Armenian
archbishops since the 17th century, was damaged, and the archbishop
slapped the yeshiva student. The student was arrested, and the
Jerusalem District Court subsequently banned him from approaching the
Old City for 75 days. The archbishop was questioned by police.

Police spokesman Gil Kleiman said that the last such case handled by
police was more than two years ago, but Christian clergy complain of
frequent harassment.

Poraz called such behavior by ultra-Orthodox Jewish students
“intolerable,” and asked Public Security Minister Gideon Ezra to
“take all the necessary steps to prevent these incidents in the
future.” Poraz also expressed his dismay to the heads of the churches
in Israel and noted “Israel’s commitment to freedom of religion.”

Armenian officials charged that Israeli authorities were not doing
enough.

“When there is an attack against Jews anywhere in the world, the
Israeli government is incensed, so why when our religion and pride
are hurt, don’t they take harsher measures?” Archbishop Nourhan
Manougian told Haaretz.

Lawyer for Turkish Diplomat Wants a Dismissal
By Ali Ihsan Aydin

Zaman Online, Turkey
Oct 13 2004

Paris — The French lawyer representing the Turkish Consulate in a
suit filed against it by the Defense Committee for the Armenian Case
(DCAC) asked that the case be thrown out on the grounds that the
DCAC’s action is incompatible with the “legal immunity” provided to
diplomats by the Vienna Convention.

The case originated when the Turkish Consulate General in Paris denied
the existence of an “Armenian Genocide” on its website. The DCAC
filed a complaint that the court will decide on come November 15th.

According to the defense, the Turkish Consulate is beyond the
jurisdiction of a domestic French court because the Vienna Convention
reasoned that the international obligations of diplomats sometimes
ran contrary to domestic law.

Despite pressure from the opposition, French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre
Raffarin will preside over a meeting on Thursday, October 14, in the
French Parliament, that will address Turkey’s potential negotiations
with the European Union (EU).

CZECHS READY TO CASH IN ON DUTCH SLIP

sportinglife.com, UK
Oct 13 2004

The honeymoon period is over for Holland coach Marco van Basten
with the realities of international management really hitting home
on Saturday.

Holland were held to a shock 2-2 draw against FYR Macedonia, throwing
open a group which the Dutch appeared to be controlling following
their defeat of the Czech Republic.

The weekend disappointment means Van Basten’s men must pick up three
points from their home clash with Finland in Amsterdam on Wednesday
night.

Holland do have a few selection worries, though.

Defender Khalid Boulahrouz is suspended, leaving Van Basten with a
space to fill.

His first choice was Mario Melchiot but the Birmingham defender
declared himself not fit enough to play due to an illness.

Theo Lucius was then given the call and the PSV Eindhoven defender
may be thrust straight into the line-up as Wilfred Bouma is struggling
with a shin problem.

Finland arrive in good heart following Saturday’s 3-1 defeat of
Armenia in Tampere.

The Finns, who have nine points, currently lead the section on goal
difference from Romania although Holland and the Czech Republic –
who both have three points but have played two games less – are still
expected to come through.

The Czech’s next test is against Armenia in Yerevan.

The visitors will be without Milan Baros but Jan Koller is determined
the Liverpool striker’s absence will not prove decisive.

Baros picked up a yellow card in Saturday’s win over Romania – a game
in which Koller scored the only goal – and will sit out the match
due to suspension.

“It is true that we will miss Milan Baros in attack but his role
will be taken by somebody else and we still have a strong team,”
Koller told PA International.

“The responsibility for scoring goals will not be just on me, but on
all the players.

“It is not important who scores but important that we win. In Armenia
we have to follow up the victory on Saturday.”

Holland’s failure to beat Macedonia has given the Czech Republic
renewed hope, as Koller acknowledges.

The Borussia Dortmund star added: “Holland’s draw in Macedonia proved
that the favourites will have to work hard to beat the other opponents
who are capable of playing equal matches.

“But we have won an extremely important three points against unpleasant
opponents (Romania) and erased the loss from the opening qualifier.”

Koller admits, though, that the game against Armenia will test the
Czech Republic’s resolve.

“I expect a typical away match on Wednesday,” he said.

“The home side will start with resolute defending, waiting for
counter-attacks.

“It would be great to score an early goal that would force them to
leave the defensive formation.”

The visitors are likely to be without Ajax defender Zdenek Grygera
but Spartak Moscow’s Martin Jiranek could deputise after proving
his fitness.

In attack, coach Karel Bruckner has called up Sparta Prague youngster
Tomas Jun to replace Baros.

“Although he is not capable of doing the same amount of work as
Baros, Jun has the ability to find the right position in the box.
That is why he scores so many goals,” Bruckner said.

Armenia’s French coach Bernard Casoni will be without first-choice
goalkeeper Roman Berezovskij but midfielder Albert Sarkisjan is
available after completing a one-match ban.

Wednesday’s other game in Group One sees Macedonia visit Andorra
hoping to build on Saturday’s shock draw with the Dutch.

Armenia economic forum to solve long-term tasks of country development

ITAR-TASS, Russia
Oct 13 2004

YEREVAN, October 12 (Itar-Tass) — The international Armenian
economic forum is designed to help resolve long-term strategic tasks
of Armenia’s development, president of the World Armenian Congress and
the Union of Russian Armenians Ara Abramyan told Itar-Tass on Tuesday.

At the forum that will open on Wednesday concrete business projects
will be worked out and implemented in order to promote the social
and economic development of Armenia and use the existing political
and economic potential of the diaspora more effectively, Abramyan
emphasized. He is confident that “serious successes can not be achieved
in the solution of national tasks, the just solution of the Karabakh
problem cannot also be achieved, if the Armenian people does not
manage to pool its efforts and provide conditions for the effective
social and economic development of the country.”

According to Abramyan, on one hand, for this it is necessary to
consolidate efforts of business circles of the diaspora and Armenia,
strengthen involvement of businessmen of the diaspora in the republic’s
economy. On another hand, there is a persistent need to involve the
Armenian economy and businessmen in international business structures.

“Armenian economy and business should find its place in the
international economic community,” Abramyan pointed out. According
to him, the goal of the World Armenian Congress is to try to raise
Armenian business to a new level of foreign economic relations that
corresponds more to the current stage of globalization.

Calcutta Telegraph, India
Oct 13 2004

Ray of inspiration in blocks of stone
A STAFF REPORTER

Tokmajyam at work in his studio. Picture by Pabitra Das

He finds the sun and inspiration in the galis of Calcutta. In his
eyes, sari-clad Bengali women look like Greek goddesses. He speaks no
English but breaks easily into the tune of Mera joota hai Japani.

With magnificent works displayed all over the world — Greece to
Toronto — Armenian sculptor Levon Tokmajyam, on his first visit to
India, is in Calcutta to add his own touch to the city’s diverse art
palette.

The sculptor has been holed up in a makeshift studio on Mirza Ghalib
Street, where at the request of the Armenian government, he has been
busy sculpting a marble bust of Arutyun Shmavonyan, the founder of
the first Armenian language press in India.

Dressed casually in shorts and faded T-shirt, the 67-year-old’s face
breaks into a wrinkled smile that reaches out beyond language
barriers, as he speaks through interpreter Henrik about the charm
that Calcutta holds for him.

Inside the white-washed studio, fashioned out of a garage at the
Armenian College on Mirza Ghalib Street, Tokmajyam is in his
elements. While the huge piece of sculpture lies on the ground, the
diminutive artist picks up chunks of marble and smiles gleefully at
visitors, trying to tell them how he would like to shape the block of
stone. “When I looked at the scraps left from the huge marble block
used for the bust, I saw the Calcutta sun in them and felt inspired,”
says Tokmajyam.

“I love the natural ways of life. The Calcutta just outside my studio
has shown me enough of the happiness and pain that lie within the
intrinsic fabric of simple life,” adds the sculptor. And his exhibits
are proof of this inspiration — sculptures of a rickshaw-puller (down
to the beads of sweat trickling down his face), to a worn-out face of
Mother Teresa and Indian women in saris.

“I have met many artists all over the globe. But nowhere else in the
world have I come across such helpful sculptors like the ones in
Calcutta. Tapas Sarkar, for one, has become like a brother to me over
the past few days,” says Tokmajyam. He is scheduled to be back to the
city in December for the inauguration of his work.

Sarkar, a sculptor himself, realised how the city would be missing
the Armenian’s work on seeing Tokmajyam work on the bust. “When I
thought of this exhibition, he readily made over 15 exclusive pieces
based on his experiences in the city,” said Sarkar.

Now that the work is almost over, Tokmajyam is “feeling relaxed” and
looking for people to take him out to “feel the real throbbing heart
of the city and usher in new inspiration”.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Israel’s Christians spitting mad
By Inigo Gilmore in Jerusalem
(Filed: 13/10/2004)

The Daily Telegraph, UK
Oct 13 2004

Christians in Jerusalem have attacked what they say is the increasingly
common phenomenon of ultra-orthodox Jews spitting on them.

The statement followed a brawl between an orthodox Jewish yeshiva
(religious school) student and an Armenian archbishop.

They clashed in Jerusalem’s Old City after the student spat at a
cross being carried by the clergyman during a procession near the
Church of the Holy Sepulchre.

Archbishop Nourhan Manougian slapped the student and in the ensuing
scuffle, his 17th century ceremonial medallion was broken.

Both were questioned by police and the student is facing charges. He
has been banned from the Old City for 75 days. The Armenians say the
action was inadequate.

Archbishop Manougian told an Israeli newspaper that Israeli leaders
must speak out about the “daily” abuse. “When there is an attack
against Jews anywhere, the Israeli government is incensed, so why when
our religion and pride are hurt, don’t they take harsher measures?” he
asked.

His critique has encouraged other Christian leaders to speak out,
including a senior Greek Orthodox clergyman who has disclosed that
he was recently approached by an elderly man wearing a skullcap who
spat in his face.

Daniel Rossing, the director of a Jerusalem centre for Christian-Jewish
dialogue, said there had been an increase in such incidents recently as
“part of a general lack of tolerance”.

Cases of Jews spitting on Christains “repulsive”: Minister

Press Trust of India, India
Oct 13 2004

Jerusalem, Oct 13 (PTI) Calling acts of spitting by Jews on Christian
clergy as “repulsive”, Interior Minister, Avraham Poraz, has condemned
such “repeated attacks” on the religious minority. Expressing dismay
at the recent incident in which a student of Jewish texts spit
on a cross carried by Armenian archbishop Nourhan Manougian in a
procession on Sunday, Poraz said that such acts are “intolerable”,
local media reported.

The interior minister has asked the Public Security Minister Gideon
Ezra to “take all the necessary steps to prevent these incidents in the
future.” In his talks with the heads of the churches in Israel, Poraz
asserted “Israel’s commitment to freedom of religion,” reports said.

The incident led to a fracas during which the archbishop’s medallion,
worn by Armenian archbishops since the 17th century, was damaged,
and the archbishop slapped the student.

The student was later arrested and the Jerusalem District Court
subsequently banned him from approaching the Old City for 75 days,
Daily Ha’aretz reported.

Angered by the latest incident however Armenian officials have charged
that Israeli auThorities were not doing enough.

“When there is an attack against Jews anywhere in the world, the
Israeli government is incensed, so why when our religion and pride
are hurt, don’t they take harsher measures?” Archbishop Manougian
told Haaretz. PTI

U.N. BIG LOST SWEET OIL DEAL
By NILES LATHEM

New York Post
Oct 13 2004

October 13, 2004 — WASHINGTON — An angry Saddam Hussein stopped
giving the head of the U.N. oil-for-food program sweetheart oil deals
after fuming that the honcho was not doing enough to earn his money,
according to new information uncovered by investigators. The Post has
learned that former Iraqi government officials have told congressional
investigators that oil-for-food chief Benon Sevan was ordered to be
removed from Saddam’s special oil voucher list in June 2001 after
five years of secret dealings.

The ex-regime officials have told investigators from the House
International Relations Committee that government higher-ups believed
Sevan, the Armenian Cypriot who administered the $64 billion program,
wasn’t “doing enough” to help Saddam in his relentless quest to end
global sanctions, according to a congressional investigator.

“We were told the Iraqis were expecting certain things [from Sevan]
and they didn’t get what they wanted. From their perspective, they
were getting screwed,” the investigator said.

Saddam’s government had another reason to remove Sevan from its
oil-for-food gravy train.

CIA weapons inspector Charles Duelfer said in a report last week that,
at about the same time Sevan was cut off, an Egyptian middleman for
one of the companies linked to Sevan’s Iraq oil deals was informed
by Oil Ministry officials that Sevan’s company was behind in its
payments to Saddam’s kickback program.

ONU (Communiqués de presse), NY
Oct 13 2004

UNESCO Recruits Communication and Information Adviser for Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and the Russian Federation
13-10-2004 (UNESCO)

UNESCO seeks its Communication and Information Adviser for Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and the Russian Federation.
Based in the UNESCO Office in Moscow, the Adviser will conceptualise
and design programmes and projects in communication and information
for UNESCO regular and extra budgetary funding.

Under the overall authority of the UNESCO’s Assistant
Director-General for Communication and Information, and the immediate
supervision of the Director of the UNESCO Office in Moscow and the
Directors of the Communication and Information Sector, the incumbent
will carry out the following duties:

Implement, monitor, evaluate and report on the communication and
information programme activities and projects decentralized to the
Office by, inter alia : a) assessing the needs in Member States with
regard to emerging trends in the fields of information and
communication and proposing activities based on those needs; b)
identifying, negotiating and designing projects in cooperation with
national, regional institutions and nongovernmental organizations, as
well as with the media and individuals; c) executing projects in
cooperation with governments, NGOs, consultants; d) preparing/editing
technical guidelines and other documents; e) evaluating programme
results and final outputs of projects;

Conceptualize and prepare extra-budgetary projects and negotiate with
donors the mobilization of extra-budgetary funds in the areas of
communication and information, namely, Freedom of Expression,
Democracy and Peace, Communication and Information Society. Plan and
implement approved extra-budgetary projects;

Contribute to and promote inter-disciplinarity in the
multi-disciplinary team effort of UNESCO Office in Moscow,
particularly with regard to communication and information and
sustainable development;

Collect, maintain, analyze information on communication and
information as part of the overall effort of the UNESCO Moscow Office
to establish a country specific and sub-regional data-base, as well
as for use by Headquarters, contributing to the drawing up of UNESCO
country profiles for the countries of his/her assignment;

Contribute to preparing the input of the Office and the Sector to
reports of the Director-General on implementation of programmes;

Provide on a regular basis news and information on communication and
information programmes in Member States through UNESCO’s website and
newsletters.

The candidate should have

an advanced university degree in communication and/or information
sciences.

At least 5 years experience working on communication and information
programmes at international level.

Experience in planning and implementing projects, preferably in
international organizations.

Excellent communications skills

Good IT skills.

Excellent knowledge of English and French and good knowledge of the
other language. Knowledge of Russian desirable.

Conditions of employment UNESCO’s salaries are calculated in US
dollars. They consist of a basic salary and a post adjustment which
reflects the cost of living in a particular duty station and exchange
rates. For this post, the annual remuneration will start at the
current exchange rate at US$ 75,145 (US$ 70,143 if without
dependants), exempt from income tax. In addition, UNESCO offers an
attractive benefits package including 30 days annual vacation, home
travel, education grant for dependant children, pension plan and
medical insurance. The initial appointment, which is for 2 years,
includes a probationary period of 12 months, and is renewable,
subject to satisfactory service. Worldwide mobility is required as
staff members have to serve in other duty stations according to
UNESCO’s job rotation policy. UNESCO is a non-smoking Organization.

Closing date for applications is 11 December 2004.

Candidates should use UNESCO’s online application system at
Candidates without access to internet may
send a paper application by completing the official UNESCO CV form
(available at Headquarters, UNESCO Offices, National Commissions in
Member States, or any office of a United Nations Resident
Representative) in English or French to Chief, HRM/RCR, UNESCO, 7
place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France, before the closing
date, quoting the post number.

;URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html

ASBAREZ ONLINE
TOP STORIES
10/12/2004
TO ACCESS PREVIOUS ASBAREZ ONLINE EDITIONS PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT <;HTTP://

1) Kerry Rep. Sets Record Straight on False Story in Turkish Press
2) Oskanian: Armenia Will Defend ‘Package’ Option of Settlement
3) Karabagh Prime Minister Meets with ARF-West Delegation
4) France ‘Free’ to Block Turkey’s EU Membership: Jacques Chirac
5) Could the ‘Deal of the Century’ Still Live Up to its Name?

1) Kerry Rep. Sets Record Straight on False Story in Turkish Press

Reinforces strong record on Armenian issues; stresses sharp differences with
President Bush

WASHINGTON, DC On October 9, John Kerry’s Spokesman Mark Kitchens issued a
statement in response to false reports in the Turkish newspaper Zaman about
John Kerry’s position on issues of importance to Armenia Americans. “There is
no truth to the report published recently in the Turkish newspaper “Zaman.”
“John Kerry’s record in the Senate and his statements during this campaign
have consistently supported US recognition of the Armenian Genocide,” noted
Kitchens. “John Kerry is a long-time leader on issues of concern to Armenian
Americans and is proud to have been endorsed by the Armenian National
Committee
of America.”
“We appreciate John Kerry’s quick action to set the record straight regarding
a blatantly fabricated attempt to misrepresent his 20-year record of
principled
support for US recognition of the Armenian Genocide, strong US-Armenia ties,
and other issues of special importance to Armenian American voters,” said ANCA
Executive Director Aram Hamparian.
“Senator Kerry’s rapid response to this latest act of desperation by deniers
of the Armenian Genocide underscores the depth of his commitment to
recognizing
the Armenian Genocide, highlights the importance he attaches to reaching
out to
Armenian American voters, and dramatically illustrates the contrast between
his
record of principled leadership and the President’s neglect and opposition
to a
broad range of Armenian American issues,” stated Hamparian.
“The choice for Armenian Americans is clear,” emphasized Kitchens’s
statement.
“They can either have four more years of neglect and even outright opposition
from the Bush administration, or a Kerry-Edwards administration that supports
the issues they care about and welcomes their input.”
The text from the original Zaman article is as follows:

Kerry Denies Acceptance of Armenian ‘Genocide’

The US Democratic Party’s Presidential Candidate, Senator John F. Kerry,
put a
damper on the expectations of Armenian lobbyists on the issue of genocide.

Zaman TurkeyKerry denied claims made by the Armenian lobby in late August
that
he will accept the Armenian Genocide resolution. The Presidential candidate
told Zaman that he contributed to Senator Robert Dole’s initiatives on the
subject in 1990, but said he has not made any statement that he would accept
the resolution either before the upcoming elections on November 2nd or within
the last 10 years. Kerry said, “Turkey is one of America’s oldest allies
and it
will remain so.”
In the first round of debates between the presidential candidates, Kerry
narrowed the gap between him and his Republican rival, US President George W.
Bush. Kerry, like Bush, gave his full support to Turkey’s accession to the
European Union (EU). The Massachusetts Senator added that Turkey’s
candidacy is
a must for both Europe and Turkey. He said if he is elected President, the
friendship between the two countries will be maintained as is.
At a Democrat Party committee meeting on October 2nd, the Senator paused when
he was told that his statement that he intends to accept the alleged Armenian
genocide deeply upset Turkish society and voters of Turkish origin. He asked
when he had made the statement and was told “last month.” Kerry responded by
absolutely denying it and stressed that he has said no such thing over the
past
ten years.
At a musical festival titled “Armenstock-Kef for Kerry” held on August 28,
2004 that was organized by the American National Committee for Armenians
(ANCA)
in Massachusetts, a letter allegedly sent by Kerry was read by Democratic
Congressional member, Barney Frank. The letter conveyed that the Democratic
Presidential candidate would accept the resolution on April 24, 2005, the 90th
anniversary of the alleged Armenian genocide.

2) Oskanian: Armenia Will Defend ‘Package’ Option of Settlement

YEREVAN (Yerkir)–In an interview to Armenian Public Television, Foreign
Minister Vartan Oskanian said that even if Armenia were to relinquish
territory
to Azerbaijan, that country is unlikely to abandon its current rigid position
on the Karabagh issue.
“It would be naïve to think that returning some of the territories [to
Azerbaijan], would lead to normalization of relations and the re-opening of
borders. Nothing will change,” Oskanian noted, adding he believes that the
only
viable solution for Armenia is the “package” option. “We should choose the
‘package’ option to ensure enduring peace and stability in the region.”
He also indicated that the international community must also realize that
Karabagh cannot be a part of Azerbaijan and that Armenia should not be
threatened by fears of isolation.

3) Karabagh Prime Minister Meets with ARF-West Delegation

GLENDALEMountainous Karabagh Republic’s Prime Minister Anoushavan Danielian
met
with a delegation from the Armenian Revolutionary Federation of the Western
United States on Monday, in a meeting that spanned over two hours, and touched
on a variety of crucial issues about Karabagh.
The meeting between the ARF’s Avedik Ismirlian, Hovig Saliba, and Dikran
Sassounian and the Prime Minister, who was accompanied by Vartan Barseghian,
the representative of the Office of the Mountainous Karabagh Republic in the
United States, took place at the Hilton Hotel in Glendale, California.
Danielian addressed the economic, political, and social programs actively
implemented in Karabagh, while the ARF representatives focused on advancing
the
idea of a national dues payment system by way of the Hayastan All-Armenian
Fund.
The ARF also proposed means to make the activities of the Hayastan
All-Armenian Fund run more smoothly in California, and addressed the
fundamental need to charge resettlement activities in Karabagh, the necessity
of 90th anniversary Armenian genocide commemorations to take on a Pan-Armenian
nature, as well as the possible dangers Turkish membership to the European
Union pose to Armenia, and more specifically to Mountainous Karabagh Republic.
According to participants, the discussions were lively and pleasant.

4) France ‘Free’ to Block Turkey’s EU Membership: Jacques Chirac

PARIS (AFP)France reserves the right to veto Turkey’s entry into the European
Union “at any moment,” President Jacques Chirac told state television
Sunday in
an interview during a state visit to Beijing.
The French parliament would be consulted on the issue of Turkey’s membership,
he promised, stressing that in negotiations with Ankara “at any moment France
can withdraw, can apply a veto, or can refuse.”
“At that moment, the negotiations end. We are thus totally free,” said
Chirac,
who has previously stated he personally favors Turkey’s eventual membership to
the European bloc.
“In any case, the French will have the last word through a referendum if it
goes to that point,” he said. “And it’s a matter that will not be discussed
for
another 10 or 15 years at the earliest, if it is at all.”
The ambiguity of Chirac’s stance on Turkey reflected differences between
deputies in his ruling UMP party on the issue.
The party has declared itself opposed to the idea of Turkey, a poor,
predominantly Muslim state, joining the European Union, which itself already
took on 10 new members this year, most of them former Soviet states from
eastern Europe.
Chirac has declared he would put the Turkey membership question to a
referendum, apparently in a bid to separate the controversy from efforts to
have the French electorate adopt an EU constitution.
In related news, a recent poll published by the French newspaper Liberation
showed that a projected 75% of the population oppose Turkey’s accession to the
EU and would vote against such a referendum.
Taken after the European Commission’s recommendation last week in favor of
accession talks, the survey indicated that, among the 25 member EU states,
France is the most firmly opposed to Turkey’s bid.
Compared to 75.3% figure projected by the poll, 64% of the supporters of the
opposition Socialist Party, and 75% of the supporters of President Jacques
Chirac’s Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) stated that they would opposed the
referendum. Voters between the ages of 18 and 24 stood as the only group,
whose
majority65.1%would favor Turkey’s efforts.
The survey was published on Tuesday, two days before a debate in the national
assembly called in response to growing pressure from parliamentarians for a
chance to discuss the issue ahead of a final decision on starting Turkish
accession talks expected from EU leaders on December 17.
However, despite calls from many deputies, the debate will not be followed by
a vote. Both of France’s main parties are deeply split on the matter. Although
Socialist Party leader Francois Hollande has voiced his support for Turkey’s
accession, a large bloc within the party, led by former prime minister Laurent
Fabius who said earlier this month that “Turkey is geographically not part of
Europe,” stand firmly against it.

5) Could the ‘Deal of the Century’ Still Live Up to its Name?

On September 20, Baku staged major celebrations, with Turkish President Ahmet
Necdet Sezer and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Georgian president
Mikhail Saakashvily present among the guests of honor. The cause for the
festivities was the tenth anniversary of the first contract on delivering the
Azerbaijani oil to the world market, dubbed ‘the deal of the century’ by the
late president Heydar Aliyev. Many expectations were frustrated during this
decade but the fast-approaching inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline could make good on many of the old promises.

BACKGROUND

Ten years ago, on September 20 1994, the newly-forged consortium of several
international oil companies, called the Azerbaijan International Operating
Company (AIOC), signed the agreement with the government of Azerbaijan on the
development of three oilfields: Azeri, Chirag, and Guneshli. It was BP that
had
worked hardest and lobbied the smartest in preparation for this agreement, but
it had to cut in Amoco, Pennzoil, and Unocal from the US, Statoil from Norway,
and several minor operators (Exxon joined the next year). What was more,
seeking to secure a neutral or positive attitude from Russia, Azerbaijan’s
State Oil Company (SOCAR) invited Lukoil to join with a decent 10% of the
total
package, explaining the presence of a representative of Russia’s Ministry for
Fuel and Energy at the signing ceremony.
In those days, however, powerful bureaucrats in the Yeltsin government were
not accustomed to inform one another about their policies, so Foreign Minister
Evgeni Primakov was furious at being kept in the dark. Three months later,
the
first Chechen War was unleashed and this unfolding disaster made Moscow even
more nervous and disagreeable about Western plans for the Caspian. That
started
a chain of setbacks for the AIOC: a sharp drop in oil prices, downwards
re-evaluations of the oil reserves in the Southern Caspian, disagreements
about
export routes, and endless quarrels about maritime borders and even an
incident
(fortunately, a single one) involving Iranian patrol crafts.
In retrospect, three key sources of troubles for the project, as well as
several other contracts signed in its wake, can be identified. The first was
the (sometimes unnecessarily rude) rejections of Iran’s proposals to channel
some of the prospective oil flows towards the Gulf through its territory. The
second was the failure to give Russia a meaningful stake in the project, thus
making a partner with a clear interest in the success. The third and most
complex Pandora box of troubles was full of local conflicts, and the oil
contracts, excitingly promising as they were, failed to make any contribution
towards their resolution. All these shortcomings are still present but at the
start of the second decade of implementation, the situation looks
significantly
more promising for AIOC and its local partners. It is not only the unstoppable
rise of oil prices that improves the overall prospects, but also the
completion
in the coming months, after many delays and complications, of the strategic
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that could deliver as much as one million barrels
of Caspian oil a day to meet steadily growing world demand.

IMPLICATIONS

The intensity of geopolitical competition for Caspian oil has visibly
subsided
since the late 1990s when Russia and the US appeared to be at loggerheads over
the control of prospective Caspian pipelines. The present-day relative calm,
however, might be misleading and the absence of any Russian guests at the
celebrations in Baku (as well as the total silence about them in the Russian
media) is a warning signal. While the technicalities of the ten-year-old deal
are mostly resolved, its implementation is still threatened by three regional
risks and three external challenges. The former are the uncertainties about
President Ilham Aliyev’s ability to control infighting among interest
groups in
Azerbaijan’s ruling elite, the desperate efforts of President Mikhail
Saakashvili to keep Georgia mobilized around his program of reforms, and the
fragility of the ten years old cease-fire in Mountainous Karabagh with a
perfectly deadlocked peace process.
The external challenges are the disgruntlement of Iran, which seeks for means
to reduce the international pressure focused on its nuclear program; the
overstretched US, which is stuck in the quagmire of Iraq and seems to have few
political resources left for the Caucasus; and the confused Russia, which
seeks
to expand its regional influence but remains unable to contain the war in
Chechnya. Recent Russian efforts at re-orienting its foreign and security
policies towards the ‘war on terrorism,’ triggered by the horrible tragedy in
Beslan, are particularly worrisome. The doctrine of military prevention has
been made an integral part of these efforts, and there is a visible desire to
show the ability to deliver on the promises made by Minister of Defense Ivanov
and Chief of General Staff Baluevsky. The Pankisi Gorge in Georgia has long
been identified as the most probable area for a Russian ‘counter-terrorist’
operation, but it is entirely possible that targets for ‘surprise attacks’
could be found further south in Georgia and in Azerbaijan. The military
base in
Akhalkalaki, Georgia, would then prove its value and the radar station in
Qabala, Azerbaijan, may provide a useful pretextand if such a penetrating
‘counter-terrorist preventive strike’ would also prevent oil from flowing to
the West by damaging some of the BTC infrastructure, nobody in Moscow would be
greatly upset.
Such a scenario might appear entirely hypothetical, and its repercussions
could be far more serious then a post-factum exchange of stern diplomatic
notes. Every balanced assessment of immediate consequences and further
implications would warn against reckless use of military instruments in the
Caucasus, but the Russian leadership has been departing further and further
away from its trademark pragmatism and increasingly shows the
predisposition to
inadequate responses in crisis situations.

CONCLUSIONS

The renewed enthusiasm around the decade-old ‘deal of the century’ is fueled
by record-high oil prices and pinned on the forthcoming unveiling of the
high-capacity pipeline. In unstable areas like the Caucasus, however, huge
profits tend to attract big trouble. The recent cancellation of NATO
Partnership for Peace exercises in Azerbaijan was certainly not an isolated
diplomatic incident; the lack of real partnership is certainly an open secret
but the absence of real peace needs to be addressed urgently. The list of
things that might go wrong with delivering the Caspian oil to the world
markets
is excessively long, from implosion of regimes in the South Caucasus to
Russia’s aggressive move in reasserting its dominance. The deal would have
deserved the pretentious name if it was used for promoting stability in the
region. It may not be too late to give this emphasis to the oil policies, but
the currently prevalent benign neglect is not the way to proceed.

Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a Senior Researcher at the International Peace Research
Institute, Oslo (PRIO). The Central Asia Caucasus Analyst is a publication of
the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at the Nitze School for Advanced
International Studies, at Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, DC.

All subscription inquiries and changes must be made through the proper carrier
and not Asbarez Online. ASBAREZ ONLINE does not transmit address changes and
subscription requests.
(c) 2004 ASBAREZ ONLINE. All Rights Reserved.

ASBAREZ provides this news service to ARMENIAN NEWS NETWORK members for
academic research or personal use only and may not be reproduced in or through
mass media outlets.