ARMENIA TO BE HARDLY PUSHED TO REVOLUTION IN NEAR FUTURE: RUSSIAN
POLITOLOGIST
YEREVAN, JANUARY 26. ARMINFO. Armenia will hardly be pushed to a
revolution in the coming years: the snowdrops are not ripe yet, says
Russian politologist Andrey Milovzorov on Utro.ru in his article
“Russia’s Partners are Pregnant with Revolutions of All Colors.”
Georgian and Ukraine have shown that the key prerequisite for a
revolution is mass popular displeasure with the ruling regime and life
under this regime (typical of all the CIS countries); growing
pro-Russian moods even in a pro-West government; the West’s fuel
interests (oil, gas, pipelines) in a given country in opposition to
similar potential interests from Russia. There are many candidates for
revolution: Belarus, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, shattered Moldova,
totalitarian Turkmenistan.
Armenia is also a worthy candidate. That country is facing a serious
social-economic crisis, its people is displeased with its regime,
Russian influence is too big and would better be reduced. Recent
surveys have shown that Armenians are becoming increasingly inclined
towards Europe and are tending to support any opposition to the
regime. Many experts say that Armenia is the next victim to revolution
– snowdrop revolution. But there are serious obstacles too: the
opposition is motley and lacks the political drive, the power hunger
of Saakashvili and Yuschenko. It is all but consolidated, has no
director and no financing. There could be revolution in Armenia after
the elections 2003 but it did not happen. Washington must have
considered the Armenian opposition not sufficiently anti-Russian – a
prerequisite for real support. Besides Russia has troops in Armenia.
As for neighboring Azerbaijan it is hardly a candidate for
revolution. Until recently it has been a loyal outpost of the US in
the Caspian region. Now under Aliev Junior Baku has become
ambiguous. It is still bad with Moscow (because of Armenia) but
instead it has made friends with Iran, the country the US hates very
much. This is serious but not enough for a coup. Besides there is no
mass displeasure with Ilham Aliev in Azerbaijan; nor are there any
threats to the US’ oil interests. No, in Azerbaijan the western
scenario makers will rather work with the incumbent regime than try to
change it, concludes Milovzorov.

COMMUNISTS OF CIS COUNTRIES APPEAL PRESIDENTS OF THEIR STATES TO
RECOGNIZE GENOCIDE OF ARMENIANS AT OFFICIAL LEVEL
YEREVAN, JANUARY 26. ARMINFO. The Council of Union of Communist
Parties (CUCP) adopted the Statement “On Genocide of Armenians in
1915” at its regular sitting held in Moscow January 22, the first
secretary of the Central Committee of Armenia’s Communist Party Rouben
Tovmasyan told ARMINFO.
Leaders of the Communist Parties of the former soviet republics called
the Genocide of Armenians one of the most criminal actions of world
imperialism. It is reminded in the statement that several European
countries, such as France, Slovenia and others, recognized the direct
responsibility of Turkey for that bloody crime towards humanity and
demand from Turkey to admit the historical responsibility for
Armenians’ Genocide as a condition for accession to the EU. It is
also emphasized that the USA and some satellites are conducting open
pro-Turkish policy, on the one hand calling all the people to fight
against terrorism, and, on the other hand, preventing world-wide
condemnation of the Armenians’ Genocide.
The draft of the CUCP was proposed by the delegation of Communist
Party of Armenia and was accepted unanimously. According to
R. Tovmasyan, none of the delegations prevented adopting of the
statement.
To note, the Communist Parties of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova,
Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kirghizia form the
Council Union of communist parties. -R-

PACE RESOLUTION ON NAGORNY KARABAKH IS PECULIAR WITH ITS SPECIAL
SUBJECTIVITY: HEAD OF ARFD FACTION
YEREVAN, JANUARY 26. ARMINFO. , Head of the ARFD faction, ex-deputy foreign minister of
Armenia, Levon Lazarian, told ARMINFO.
He pointed out that PACE Resolution contained such provisions which
had not been included into international documents before. he said, Levon Lazarian said.
Commenting on the current situation, he said that one could say that
due to efforts of Azerbaijan to transfer the Karabakh issue from OSCE
MG format into the format of international structures, a new stage
started in the settlement process of the Karabakh conflict. Being
aware that propaganda plays a great role in the Karabakh issue,
Azerbaijan has changed its strategy and raised the issue at
international instances. he said.

PACE RESOLUTION ON NAGORNY KARABAKH DOES NOT SHOW POSITION AND DESIRE
OF ARMENIAN PARTY IN ISSUE OF KARABAKH’s CONFLICT SETTLEMENT: GALUST
SAHAKYAN
YEREVAN, JANUARY 26. ARMINFO. Resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly
of the Council of Europe (PACE) on Nagorny Karabakh will not affect
the process of Karabakh’s conflict settlement within the framework of
the OSCE Minsk Group, Leader of Republican Party of Armenia Galust
Sahakyan told ARMINFO, commenting on the PACE resolution on NK adopted
the day before.
Sahakyan noted that the PACE resolution does not show the position and
desire of the Armenian party in the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict, however, it should be noted, that a final version of the
document, in comparison with an original, is rather moderate. He
considers positive that the document calls on Azerbaijani authorities
to start negotiations with the NK communities on definition of its
status. According to him, it is a result of successful activity of
Armenian delegation to PACE. -R-

ARMENIAN PREMIER IN POLAND TO MARK AUSCHWITZ LIBERATION ANNIVERSARY
Arminfo
26 Jan 05
YEREVAN
An Armenian government delegation led by Prime Minister Andranik
Markaryan today arrived in Poland (Krakow) on a three-day official
visit, the Armenian government’s press service has told Arminfo.
According to the source, on 27 January the Armenian delegation will
take part in a ceremony to mark the 60th anniversary of the liberation
of the Auschwitz concentration camp prisoners.
(Passage omitted: Other details of the visit)

Azeri leader wants Iran to exert economic pressure on Armenia – TV
Excerpt from report by Azerbaijani private TV station ATV
25 January
[Presenter] The second day of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s
official visit to Iran has ended. In the morning, the president met
Iranian Majlis Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel and Chairman of the
Expediency Council Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. In his talks with
Rafsanjani, the head of state expressed the wish that official Tehran
exert economic pressure on Armenia.
[Passage omitted: known details]
[ATV correspondent] Rasad Huseynov has the details from Tehran.
[Correspondent, by phone] The meeting between the former Iranian
president and incumbent chairman of the Expediency Council, Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev focused on
the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Aliyev said the fact that Azerbaijani
territories were under occupation posed a threat to the whole
region. The president said that the talks which have been going on for
more than 10 years are fruitless. He spoke highly of official Tehran’s
position on the conflict. Asked by Rafsanjani how Iran could help
Azerbaijan deal with the conflict, Aliyev said: We would like Iran to
continue to maintain the position on Nagornyy Karabakh that it has
expressed within the framework of international organizations. At the
same time, we want official Tehran to exert economic pressure on
Armenia.
[Passage omitted: known details]

Bulgarian MP assures Azeri Speaker of support in Karabakh issue
ANS TV, Baku
25 Jan 05
[Presenter] Bulgaria, which supports Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity, will not back down on its position on the Nagornyy Karabakh
problem, members of a Bulgarian-Azerbaijani interparliamentary
delegation have told a meeting with Azerbaijani Speaker Murtuz
Alasgarov.
[Correspondent, over video of the meeting] Speaker Murtuz Alasgarov
told the meeting with the Bulgarian-Azerbaijani interparliamentary
delegation led by Remzi Osman that 20 per cent of our lands had been
occupied as a result of Armenia’s aggression and over 1m people had
become refugees.
He complained that four UN resolutions [on Nagornyy Karabakh] have not
yet been implemented and that some states and international
organizations employ double standards in their position on the
Nagornyy Karabakh problem.
[Alasgarov, speaking in Russian with Azeri voice-over] The talks are
still continuing. We hope the talks will yield results in the near
future and change the situation. The OSCE Minsk Group which has
undertaken the mediation mission should speed up its efforts.
[Correspondent] Alasgarov said once again that the OSCE Minsk Group
should exert pressure on the aggressor state and demand that Armenia
adhere to international legal norms.
The speaker also welcomed Bulgaria’s position on the Nagornyy Karabakh
problem.
The head of the Bulgarian-Azerbaijani interparliamentary delegation,
Remzi Osman, said that the state he represents will not back down on
its position on the Nagornyy Karabakh issue.
[Osman, in Bulgarian, with Azeri voice-over] Bulgaria recognizes
Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. It supports a peaceful solution to
the Nagornyy Karabakh problem provided that Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity is observed. Bulgaria will not change its policy.
[Correspondent] Osman also said that Bulgaria hopes for a speedy
solution to the problem through talks.

Macedonia to take part in NATO Crisis Management Exercise
Makfax news agency, Skopje
26 Jan 05
Macedonia will take part in the regular annual NATO Crisis Management
Exercise (CMX 2005), from 26 January to 1 February 2005.
In addition to the 26 NATO nations, nine partner nations have been
involved in the planning and execution of this NATO CMX as Troop
Contributing Nations. This has provided them with an opportunity to
familiarize themselves with crisis management procedures and will
strengthen cooperation between NATO and its partners in the
Political-Military Framework for NATO-led Partnership for Peace (PfP)
operations.
Other countries included in CMX 2005 are Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan,
Finland, Ireland, Croatia, Sweden and Switzerland.
Participants in CMX 2005 will include civil and military staffs in
national capitals, at NATO Headquarters, and in both Strategic
Commands. Representatives from the UN, EU and OSCE will be invited as
observers.
No troops will be deployed in the exercise.
The scenario will depict an UN-mandated and NATO-led crisis response
operation deployment outside the Euro-Atlantic area in order to reduce
tension between two fictitious states. The environment includes the
risk of conventional conflict and an asymmetric dimension such as the
threat of terrorism and the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
against deployed NATO-led forces and in troop contributing nations.
CMX 2005 will last one week, involving a total of 1,250 personnel.

COUNCIL OF EUROPE’S KARABAKH RESOLUTION HAS NO LEGAL IMPACT – ARMENIAN MP
Arminfo
26 Jan 05
YEREVAN
The resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) on Nagornyy Karabakh cannot have a legal impact on the
settlement of the Karabakh conflict, but it may have a political
influence on it since it reflects PACE’s official position, the head
of the parliamentary commission for defence, national security and
internal affairs and deputy chairman of the Orinats Yerkir
(Law-Governed Country) Party, Mger Shakhgeldyan, said in an interview
with our Arminfo correspondent commenting on the Nagornyy Karabakh
resolution adopted by PACE yesterday.
Of course, the document contains many provisions that are undesirable
for the Armenian side, but at the same time, it also includes points
that proceed from the interests of the Armenian side, he pointed out.
Among them, the MP named the provision that “the territory can gain
independence if its population is striving for that on the basis of
democratic processes”. The people of Nagornyy Karabakh gained their
independence in a democratic way. Moreover, the document says that no
forcible decision can be thrust upon the people of Nagornyy Karabakh,
which also meets the interests of the Armenian side.

COUNCIL OF EUROPE RESOLUTION NOT TO AFFECT KARABAKH SETTLEMENT – ARMENIAN MP
Arminfo
26 Jan 05
YEREVAN
The resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) on Nagornyy Karabakh will not reflect on the process of
settling the Karabakh conflict within the framework of the OSCE Minsk
Group, Galust Saakyan, head of the faction of the Republican Party of
Armenia, said in an interview with our Arminfo correspondent while
commenting on the PACE Nagornyy Karabakh resolution adopted yesterday.
Of course, the PACE resolution on Nagornyy Karabakh does not reflect
the position and desires of the Armenian side on the issue of settling
the Karabakh conflict, but it should be noted that the final version
of the document is somewhat softer than its initial one, Saakyan
said. The positive thing is that the document contains a call to the
Azerbaijani authorities to start negotiations with the communities of
Nagornyy Karabakh to determine its status, the MP believes. This is a
result of the Armenian delegation’s successful work in PACE, Galust
Saakyan said.