A highly dubious result

The Economist
Nov 22 2004

>>From The Economist Global Agenda

A huge protest has gathered in Ukraine’s capital amid signs that the
expected winner of its presidential election, Viktor Yushchenko, was
robbed of victory by ballot fraud. Will the authorities crush the
protest or is a revolution—of the “velvet” or the blood-soaked
variety—in prospect?

ACCORDING to the exit polls, Ukraine’s pro-western opposition leader,
Viktor Yushchenko, was heading for clear victory in the final round
of the country’s presidential election, held on Sunday November 21st.
They showed Mr Yushchenko on 54%, compared with 43% for Viktor
Yanukovich, currently Ukraine’s prime minister, whose bid for the
presidency is backed by the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, and
Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin. Yet as voting continued overnight,
the opposition leader’s apparent walkover somehow turned into a
narrow win for the official candidate. On Monday, the Ukrainian
electoral commission said that, with over 99% of votes counted, Mr
Yanukovich had an unassailable lead of almost three points.

Ukraine’s election
Nov 19th 2004
Ukraine’s presidential election
Nov 4th 2004
Ukraine, Belarus and Russia
Oct 28th 2004
Ukraine’s presidential election
Oct 28th 2004
Ukraine’s presidential vote
Aug 12th 2004

Russia, Ukraine

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe reports from
its independent electoral observation mission in Ukraine. The EU
issues statements on the elections and gives information on foreign
relations. See also the US State Department. “Governments on the WWW”
provides a comprehensive resource on the government and politics of
Ukraine, including the previous election results.

Elections and debt relief for Iraq Nov 22nd 2004
The falling dollar Nov 22nd 2004
Yukos under siege Nov 19th 2004
Bush’s cabinet reshuffle Nov 18th 2004
The Buttonwood column Nov 16th 2004

About Global Agenda

Fearing a repeat of the widespread irregularities seen in the first
round of voting last month, thousands of Mr Yushchenko’s supporters,
dressed in orange, his campaign colour, gathered in sub-zero
temperatures in the main square of the capital, Kiev, on Sunday
night. They called on the government to recognise his victory, and by
Monday morning, as the country’s electoral commission began issuing
tallies showing Mr Yanukovich in the lead, their numbers had swollen
to perhaps 50,000. “Remain where you are,” the opposition leader told
his followers, promising that tens of thousands more protesters were
on their way, “on carts, cars, planes and trains”, to demonstrate
against the alleged defrauding of the election. Many protesters began
to pitch tents along Kiev’s main avenue. “Our action is only
beginning,” said Mr Yushchenko. By the evening, their numbers were
said to have risen above 100,000.

Western observers immediately denounced the election. Senator Richard
Lugar, a Republican sent by President George Bush to monitor voting,
accused the Ukrainian government of supporting a “concerted and
forceful programme of election-day fraud and abuse”. The European
Union said all 25 member countries would be summoning their Ukrainian
ambassadors to register a formal protest. But Mr Yanukovich’s
campaign manager, Serhiy Tyhypko, insisted that his man had won,
arguing that the exit polls were not reliable. Mr Putin congratulated
Mr Yanukovich on his victory.

All through the campaign, Ukraine’s news media have been highly
skewed towards Mr Yanukovich, barely giving the opposition leader a
mention. Ahead of the first round of voting, the official candidate’s
supporters were accused of intimidating electoral officials to try to
swing the vote his way. Mr Yushchenko even accused them of being
behind an attempt to poison him, which has left his face bloated and
scarred. In Sunday’s run-off, suspicions centred on possible
fraudulent multiple voting in the Russian-speaking east of the
country, where support for Mr Yanukovich is strongest. According to
the official electoral figures, turnouts there were implausibly high,
at up to 96%.

Mr Yanukovich had some strong cards to play in the election campaign:
he recently awarded big increases in pensions and public-sector pay;
and the Ukrainian economy is booming, helped by a bumper grain
harvest and rising exports of steel and chemicals. Nevertheless, even
some in Mr Yanukovich’s eastern power base have grown sick of his
regime and the oligarchic business clans that prop it up.

Foreign observers have been taking a close interest in Ukraine’s
election, not just because it is one of eastern Europe’s largest
countries, with 49m people, but because the outcome could have
important consequences for the whole region. Mr Yushchenko presented
himself as a pro-western, free-market reformer who will seek
membership of the EU and the American-led NATO defence alliance,
while cleaning up corruption and enforcing the rule of law. Mr
Yanukovich, in contrast, stood for deepening Ukraine’s close links
with Russia. If Mr Yushchenko had gained the presidency and led
Ukraine towards becoming a westernised democracy with European-style
prosperity, voters in Russia and elsewhere in eastern Europe might
have begun to demand the same.

A win by Mr Yushchenko would have been a huge blow to Mr Putin, who
twice visited Ukraine during the election campaign to back Mr
Yanukovich (while denying this was the purpose of his trips). The
Russian president’s attempts to exert control over former Soviet
states would be greatly diminished if the second-largest of them were
to escape from his grip and join the West.

So what now? Much depends on the determination of Mr Yushchenko’s
supporters. Already, there is talk of a general strike. The city
councils of Kiev and another big city, Lviv, have refused to
recognise the official result of the election. Will there now be a
crescendo of protests and civil disobedience until they reach a point
where Mr Yanukovich has no option but to step aside? After all,
something rather similar happened last year in another former Soviet
state, Georgia, where people power forced its then president, Edward
Shevardnadze, to resign following dodgy parliamentary elections.

Mr Shevardnadze was forced to quit after it became doubtful if
Georgia’s armed forces would obey any order to crush the protesters.
The question is whether Ukraine’s security forces would react in the
same way: on Monday night, they issued a statement promising that any
lawlessness would be put down “quickly and firmly”.

Though Mr Yushchenko is now hoping for a Georgian-style bloodless
revolution, there are also some less promising precedents among the
former Soviet states: only two months ago, Belarus’s president,
Alexander Lukashenka, “won” a rigged referendum to allow him to run
for re-election. The EU is said to be planning to tighten its
sanctions against his government but so far there is no sign that he
will be dislodged from power. Azerbaijan and Armenia both held flawed
elections last year: in Azerbaijan, there were riots after the son of
the incumbent president won amid widespread intimidation and bribery,
but these were violently put down; and in Armenia, voters reacted
with quiet despair at the re-election of their president amid reports
of ballot-stuffing. If Ukraine follows these precedents, hopes for
change there will be dashed.

–Boundary_(ID_F/8Wh8ME2zAhqGCbBEQDVg)–

New Armenian TV Feed Debuts Today

Voice of America
Nov 22 2004

On Monday, Nov. 22, VOA begins a new weekday feed for Armenia TV.
Available Monday through Friday, Armenian TV Magazine covers current
news topics along with insight into the background and implications
of the story.

The 10-minute feed goes to Armenia TV at 0715 UTC (11:15 a.m. in
Armenia). This new weekday edition of Armenian TV Magazine joins VOA’s
30-minute weekend program of the same name. For more information
on the staff or to catch up on programs, visit the webpage at

Sofia Echo, Bulgaria
Nov 22 2004

Double Dutch in Bulgaria

Koos Schouten

FIRST of all, I have to mention Martin Petrov who plays football for
Wolfsburg, the current leaders of the German Bundesliga.

A German TV commentator named him the “Celebration King” of German
football after he scored his fifth goal in two matches, bring his
total to eight for the season. ‘Marto’ as the Wolfs fans call him has
now officially become their most popular player. (Who’s surprised?).
Any opponent of the Bulgarian National Team better beware the man
from Vratsa will definitely appear in front of your goal and know no
hesitation.

On a different note:

“After a series by visits by Bulgarian politicians to Turkey,
organisations of Bulgarian emigrants in that country came to Bulgaria
to enquire about alternatives to the Movement for Rights and Freedoms
(MRF) for the forthcoming parliamentary elections. More than 85 per
cent of the Bulgarian emigrants to Turkey, who voted for the MRF in
previous elections, are not satisfied with what the movement has done
for them during its three-year term so far as junior coalition
partner in the ruling majority. This is one of the results in a
survey by Turkkan’s organisation. (Sega).”

This doesn’t surprise me at all, it has been proven in many countries
that minority parties representing religious and/or ethnic groups are
rarely successful. In my opinion, it makes much more sense for the
Bulgarian emigrants in Turkey, but also elsewhere in the world to
seek representation by leading parties that represents their
political views. In this new era of a United Europe, voters should
aim to develop a broader view in politics and not just worry about
their ethnicity.

For Bulgarian Turks, Muslims, Armenians and Roma to be represented by
minority parties will only push them further into the minority
corner. Parties such as the MRF only serve their leaders and can be
used only as whipping boys in coalition governments where they are
treated with respect only when their vote is needed.

Charity:

Last Saturday Night there was a charity Pub Quiz in JJ Murphy’s Irish
Pub for the benefit of the ONE LIFE Charity for Children with Cancer
and other Life shortening diseases. There were some 125 participants
in the pub and a pleasant evening was had by all. The organisers of
this event were also responsible for the bike ride a few weeks ago
from Sofia to Plovdiv. Although the charity events were well
attended, the average donation was less then 20 leva per person. I
believe that this is way too low considering that almost all were
expats.

Just to reassure you, the funds collected are all used for charity
and the accounts are audited by KPMG’s Gilbert McCall.

So, if you feel that you financially underachieved at either of these
events or even worse did not attend, please call Laura Thomas on
0888-546555 and she will send a volunteer to your office or residence
to collect your donation.

Politics:

It warmed my heart that after months of bickering the parties of the
right are finally getting their act together and will present the
Bulgarian voters with a real choice. I understand that there will be
two more meetings before Christmas and that by that time they will
once again present a United Front.

Although Mr. Gotta’ Yellow Army has brought some highly capable
people such as Milen Velchev into the lime light, they never remotely
lived up to their promises.

Saakashvili Outlines Priorities at Party Congress

Civil Georgia, Georgia
Nov 22 2004

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said on November 22, while
speaking at the first congress of the ruling National Movement –
Democrats party, that Georgia’s key priorities include reintegration
of the country, development of democratic principles and establishment
of good relations with all the neighbor countries, including Russia.

“We have to return Abkhazia and reintegrate Georgia. Georgia will be
uniform and free, only when we hang the most beautiful five-cross flag
on the Roki pass [breakaway South Ossetia] and river Psou [breakaway
Abkhazia],” President Saakashvili said.

“Each citizen should know, that Georgia’s reintegration has not
occurred yet. This process is extremely difficulties and requires
victim. It is important to restore [territorial] integrity and this
may cost our lives,” the President added.

He said, the Georgian authorities are ready to establish good relations
with all the neighbor states, including Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan
and Armenia.

“However, everybody should know that we are ready to compromise,
but not at the expense of our integrity and independence,” he added.

In the President’s opinion, Georgia will be completely free when not
a single foreign soldier remains on its land.

Mikheil Saakashvili also emphasized on supremacy of law, civil
consciousness and integration of all nationalities living in the
country in the political life.

“In order to achieve success in terms of development, one should
base on the following two criteria – professionalism and devotion
to Georgia. Nationality has no sense regarding these two criteria,”
Saakashvili said.

“We declare war against poverty and we will win in this war by all
means. We will return Georgia, our main slogan will be “Let’s Return
Georgia,” the President added.

–Boundary_(ID_mPZlu3a+TIPvc6NN3CV7WQ)–

Pope meets Azeri leaders

Baku Sun, Azerbaijan
Nov 22 2004

VATICAN CITY — Pope John Paul II received Muslim, Orthodox Christian
and Jewish religious leaders from Azerbaijan, calling their visit
Thursday a symbol of tolerance and declaring that religion must never
be used for violent aims.

“No one has the right to present or use religion as an instrument
of intolerance, as a means of aggression, of violence, of death,”
the Pope told the group.

He said Christians, Muslims and Jews must appeal together for an end
to violence in the world “with justice for all.” “This is the way of
religions,” he said.

The audience was scheduled to repay John Paul’s 2002 trip to
Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic and mainly Muslim nation with
a Catholic population of only 300 people.

The Vatican said the Pope wanted to hold up Azerbaijan as an example
of coexistence and cooperation among religions and express hope that
“a full peace in the spirit of reconciliation” may be achieved in the
region — a reference to the country’s conflict with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian enclave. A cease-fire ended
fighting in 1994 after some 30,000 people were killed and more than
a million people fled their homes.

RAO UES of Russia off to discuss winter energy supply to Georgia

Itar-Tass, Russia
Nov 22 2004

TBILISI, November 22 (Itar-Tass) – Member of the RAO UES of Russia
board Andrei Rappoport arrived on a one-day working visit in the
Georgian capital on Monday. He heads the federal network company that
is a daughter company of the energy holding.

“The goal of Rappoport’s visit is to discuss energy supplies to Tbilisi
in the winter period,” a source in the Tbilisi energy distribution
company Telasi told Itar-Tass. RAO UES of Russia owns 75 percent
of the Telasi stock since the summer of 2003. Rappoport will hold a
meeting with Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania.

Telasi provides energy supply to Tbilisi. This company imports energy
from Armenia to Russia in conditions of the energy crisis in the
autumn-winter period. Telasi imports 100 megawatt of energy from
these countries the other day.

The Georgian government and RAO UES of Russia signed a memorandum on
energy supplies to Georgia in autumn and winter this year in Tbilisi
on October 1.

Around the Valley
Telethon will raise funds to complete highway

Fresno Bee, CA
Nov 22 2004

Armenia Fund Inc. will broadcast its annual Thanksgiving fund-raising
event, Telethon 2004 Make it Happen, from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Thursday
on Fresno’s KJEO Channel 32 and Comcast Channel 14.

The 12-hour event will raise funds to complete the remaining 56 miles
of the North-South “Backbone” Highway in Karabakh.

Upon completion, the 105-mile highway will link 150 towns and villages,
providing crucial economic, trade and development opportunities.

The telethon also is aimed to provide continued assistance in health
care, education and infrastructure development in the Republic
of Armenia.

Details: (800) 888-8897 or on the Internet at

ARMENIAN PARTY PROPOSES DISCUSSION OF ISSUES OF SHAHUMIAN AND
GETASHEN OCCUPIED ARMENIAN TERRITORIES AND REFUGEES

PanArmenian News
Nov 22 2004

YEREVAN, 22.11.04. The Armenian party proposes to bring up for
discussion the issues of Shahumian and Getashen occupied Armenian
territories and Armenian refugees. Written proposals on that were
submitted by the Armenian party in the course of the session of
the NATO Parliamentary Assembly session in Venice November 11-17.
Chairman of the Committee for Defense, National Security and
Internal Affairs of the Armenian Parliament M. Shahgeldian told
about the course of the discussions at a press conference November
19. During the event, where the question of the security system of
the South Caucasian countries was also discussed, the draft of a
German representative on the countries of the region was heard. The
final report will be presented at the next session. A proposal on `the
seven occupied territories of Azerbaijan` is introduced into the report
instead of `the four territories` present in the initial document. In
M. Shahgeldian`s words, the inclusion of the issue in the UN General
Assembly agenda influenced on making such an alteration. In the course
of the debates a French representative also suggested the introduction
of the issue of lifting the blockade of Armenia, held by Turkey. The
Armenian party also made its written proposals. These specifically
remind of the occupied Armenian territories of Shahumian and Getashen,
as well as persons of Armenian nationality displaced from Azerbaijan
by force. It should be reminded that Getashen territory was occupied
by the Azeri forces in the summer of 1991 with the direct support of
the Soviet army. Shahumian region was occupied in the summer of 1992
due to bribed Russian generals. Thousands of Armenians were deported
by force or annihilated in the course of those operations.

Terror fears in Yerevan schools

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Nov 22 2004

At about noon on Friday, a report was delivered that a terror act would
be committed in the Chekhov secondary school of Yerevan. The Armenian
Ministry of Emergencies said that teachers and schoolchildren were
distanced from the school immediately after the threat came. The
individual responsible for this did not indicate the goal or the
nature of the allegedly planned terrorist act. There have been no
reports on any explosives planted in the school.

Armenia’s Interior Ministry did not rule out that such cases may occur
in other schools of the city. The Armenian minister has therefore
ordered tightening of the police force.*

MHER SHAHJELDIAN: VERY DIFFICULT PERIOD IN KARABAKH PROBLEM STARTS
FOR ARMENIA

Noyan Tapan
Nov 22 2004

YEREVAN, 22.11.04. During the recent session of the MATO Parliamentary
Assembly in Venice the report on the South Caucasus was discussed. The
RA NA deputies Mher Shahgeldian and Alexan Karapetian who had
participated in the session informed reporters about this at the
November 19 press conference. According to M. Shahgeldian, the issue
of opening Armenia`s borders with Turkey was also raised during the
NATO PA Political Committee session. The issue may become a subject
of discussion at a plenary session in the future. When answering
the reporters` questions, M. Shahgeldian noted that in the report at
the NATO PA session the Nagorno Karabakh problem was given as much
attention as to other regional problems, and the matter concerned only
an informational report. At the same time the deputy considered as
worrying the fact that Azerbaijan`s efforts aimed at discussing the
Karabakh problem in various international organizations have been
crowned with success. He underlined that a difficult period starts
for Armenia in terms of the Karabakh problem.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress