Rice faces a key test in visit to Turkey
By Brian Knowlton
International Herald Tribune
Wednesday, February 2, 2005
WASHINGTON Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Ankara this
weekend for talks likely to test her fence-mending talents as much as
will her stops in Paris and Berlin. The United States and Turkey are
still trying to recover from an unusually bitter pre-Iraq war
dispute. .
After a new Muslim-dominated government blocked an urgent Pentagon
request for access to Turkish territory that would have permitted a
northern push into Iraq, some Turks called the U.S. negotiators
arrogant and peremptory; the American side appeared taken aback by the
new Muslim power centers in a long-secular country..
The strains remain vivid, according to Turkish and American officials
as well as analysts at a conference here of the American Turkish
Council and the Atlantic Council..
And as Turkey opens talks in October on European Union membership,
U.S.-Turkish ties might face further strains..
“Turkish-EU relations are at an all-time best,” said Omer Taspinar,
director of the Turkey Program at the Brookings Institute, “while
trans-Atlantic relations are going through one of their worst
patches.” So even as the Bush administration cites Turkey as a model
of the Western-oriented Muslim democracy that President George W. Bush
wants for the region – he underscored this goal in his inaugural
speech and may repeat it Wednesday in his State of the Union address –
relations between the two countries remain raw..
How bad is Turkish public opinion toward the United States?.
A current best-selling thriller in Turkey is based on the premise that
strains over Iraq escalate into a major U.S. war on Turkey, said Soli
Ozel, a professor of international relations at Bilgi University in
Istanbul. The scenario seems absurd. But a June 2003 survey by the Pew
Research Center found that 71 percent of Turks worried that the United
States was a potential military threat..
The war changed opinion dramatically. The 2003 poll found that 83
percent of Turks viewed the United States unfavorably, up from 55
percent the previous year. And 82 percent of Turks expressed
disappointment that Iraqi forces had not fought harder against the
U.S. coalition..
“Turkey is on the receiving end of America’s grand designs in the
Middle East,” said Ozel, and as a neighbor of Iran, Iraq and Syria,
the Turks would like a voice on how those designs are carried out. .
The invasion of Iraq “simply has broken the back of U.S.-Turkish
relations,” Taspinar said. .
The containment of Iraq had been a cornerstone of America’s ties to
Turkey, a NATO partner, said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington
Institute. “It has been damaged.” A major unknown is how the situation
in Iraq, particularly northern Iraq, will evolve..
The administration hopes the unexpected success of the Iraqi elections
will give it a boost as Rice begins her trip Thursday. The elections
underscored “how important it is for all of us to encourage and
support those steps,” the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher,
said Monday..
But Turks have a series of worries..
Turkey is deeply concerned that the Kurds of northern Iraq,
strengthened by election results and with a decade’s experience of
near-autonomy, will declare independence, emboldening
separatist-minded Kurds in Turkey..
Turks believe that some in the Bush administration – including Deputy
Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who led the failed access
negotiations – would not try to block an independent Kurdistan..
Many Turks say the U.S. failure to apprehend and turn over Iraq-based
Kurdish extremists of the PKK group reflects a double standard by an
administration that calls the war on terrorism a top priority. “The
PKK is the thorn in Turkey’s foot, and it needs to be taken out,”
Cagaptay said. “There’s no other way to move forward on U.S.-Turkish
relations.” .
Preston Hughes, a retired U.S. Army colonel and Turkey expert, said
that the U.S. approach on the PKK “has caused bitter frustration and
even anger at the highest levels” in Turkey..
Turks also worry about a Kurdish takeover of the northern Iraqi city
of Kirkuk, which controls great oil wealth. Taspinar went so far as to
suggest that Turkey might “go it alone in northern Iraq” if “there is
a civil war centered around Kirkuk between the Kurds, the Arabs and
the Turkmens.” Turks would also like reassurances about neighboring
Iran. “We are really waiting, biting our nails,” over the possibility
of a U.S. attack on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, Ozel said..
What else would Turks like to hear from Rice? Clearly, analyst said,
an unequivocal assertion that the United States opposes an independent
Kurdistan and, above all, a concerted push for Israeli-Palestinian
peace. .
Taspinar’s advice: “Public diplomacy should not be seen as an
alternative to changes in policy.” .
Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said that as EU
accession talks progress, a shift away from the United States might
widen. “Turkey’s imagination, its talent, is inevitably going to be
drawn toward Europe,” Parris said. .
While the United States and Europe may be vying for Turkish attention
and business, their hopes for Turkey largely coincide: Both want to
see it ensure the rights of ethnic Armenians and Kurds, of women and
of trade unions. And both want a resolution of the decades-old
controversy over divided Cyprus. .
As fence-mending proceeds, many Turks acknowledge that they, too, have
work to do. Cagaptay suggested that the government and elite needed to
work “to filter out the vast amount of anti-American talk” and to
counter widespread anti-American conspiracy theories..
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the International Herald Tribune. .
< < Back to Start of Article
WASHINGTON Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visits Ankara this
weekend for talks likely to test her fence-mending talents as much as
will her stops in Paris and Berlin. The United States and Turkey are
still trying to recover from an unusually bitter pre-Iraq war
dispute. .
After a new Muslim-dominated government blocked an urgent Pentagon
request for access to Turkish territory that would have permitted a
northern push into Iraq, some Turks called the U.S. negotiators
arrogant and peremptory; the American side appeared taken aback by the
new Muslim power centers in a long-secular country..
The strains remain vivid, according to Turkish and American officials
as well as analysts at a conference here of the American Turkish
Council and the Atlantic Council..
And as Turkey opens talks in October on European Union membership,
U.S.-Turkish ties might face further strains..
“Turkish-EU relations are at an all-time best,” said Omer Taspinar,
director of the Turkey Program at the Brookings Institute, “while
trans-Atlantic relations are going through one of their worst
patches.” So even as the Bush administration cites Turkey as a model
of the Western-oriented Muslim democracy that President George W. Bush
wants for the region – he underscored this goal in his inaugural
speech and may repeat it Wednesday in his State of the Union address –
relations between the two countries remain raw..
How bad is Turkish public opinion toward the United States?.
A current best-selling thriller in Turkey is based on the premise that
strains over Iraq escalate into a major U.S. war on Turkey, said Soli
Ozel, a professor of international relations at Bilgi University in
Istanbul. The scenario seems absurd. But a June 2003 survey by the Pew
Research Center found that 71 percent of Turks worried that the United
States was a potential military threat..
The war changed opinion dramatically. The 2003 poll found that 83
percent of Turks viewed the United States unfavorably, up from 55
percent the previous year. And 82 percent of Turks expressed
disappointment that Iraqi forces had not fought harder against the
U.S. coalition..
“Turkey is on the receiving end of America’s grand designs in the
Middle East,” said Ozel, and as a neighbor of Iran, Iraq and Syria,
the Turks would like a voice on how those designs are carried out. .
The invasion of Iraq “simply has broken the back of U.S.-Turkish
relations,” Taspinar said. .
The containment of Iraq had been a cornerstone of America’s ties to
Turkey, a NATO partner, said Soner Cagaptay of the Washington
Institute. “It has been damaged.” A major unknown is how the situation
in Iraq, particularly northern Iraq, will evolve..
The administration hopes the unexpected success of the Iraqi elections
will give it a boost as Rice begins her trip Thursday. The elections
underscored “how important it is for all of us to encourage and
support those steps,” the State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher,
said Monday..
But Turks have a series of worries..
Turkey is deeply concerned that the Kurds of northern Iraq,
strengthened by election results and with a decade’s experience of
near-autonomy, will declare independence, emboldening
separatist-minded Kurds in Turkey..
Turks believe that some in the Bush administration – including Deputy
Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who led the failed access
negotiations – would not try to block an independent Kurdistan..
Many Turks say the U.S. failure to apprehend and turn over Iraq-based
Kurdish extremists of the PKK group reflects a double standard by an
administration that calls the war on terrorism a top priority. “The
PKK is the thorn in Turkey’s foot, and it needs to be taken out,”
Cagaptay said. “There’s no other way to move forward on U.S.-Turkish
relations.” .
Preston Hughes, a retired U.S. Army colonel and Turkey expert, said
that the U.S. approach on the PKK “has caused bitter frustration and
even anger at the highest levels” in Turkey..
Turks also worry about a Kurdish takeover of the northern Iraqi city
of Kirkuk, which controls great oil wealth. Taspinar went so far as to
suggest that Turkey might “go it alone in northern Iraq” if “there is
a civil war centered around Kirkuk between the Kurds, the Arabs and
the Turkmens.” Turks would also like reassurances about neighboring
Iran. “We are really waiting, biting our nails,” over the possibility
of a U.S. attack on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities, Ozel said..
What else would Turks like to hear from Rice? Clearly, analyst said,
an unequivocal assertion that the United States opposes an independent
Kurdistan and, above all, a concerted push for Israeli-Palestinian
peace. .
Taspinar’s advice: “Public diplomacy should not be seen as an
alternative to changes in policy.” .
Mark Parris, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, said that as EU
accession talks progress, a shift away from the United States might
widen. “Turkey’s imagination, its talent, is inevitably going to be
drawn toward Europe,” Parris said. .
While the United States and Europe may be vying for Turkish attention
and business, their hopes for Turkey largely coincide: Both want to
see it ensure the rights of ethnic Armenians and Kurds, of women and
of trade unions. And both want a resolution of the decades-old
controversy over divided Cyprus. .
As fence-mending proceeds, many Turks acknowledge that they, too, have
work to do. Cagaptay suggested that the government and elite needed to
work “to filter out the vast amount of anti-American talk” and to
counter widespread anti-American conspiracy theories..