RUSSIAN, ARMENIAN CRACK POLICE PRACTICE COUNTER-RIOTING MEASURES
By Svetlana Alikina
ITAR-TASS News Agency
TASS
October 10, 2005 Monday 8:54 AM Eastern Time
Russian and Armenian crack police have practiced measures against
massive unrest at a proving ground near Krasnodar.
It was the first-ever such joint exercise, with about 1,500 officers
and men involved. Armored vehicles, police helicopters and various
types of firearms were used.
Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev spoke highly of the degree
of cooperation by Russian and Armenian police.
“We are quite happy with the performance of Russian and Armenian
law enforcers. Their crack units are well prepared for coping with
various tasks,” Nurgaliyev said.
An international anti-terrorist exercise of several crack police
units from CIS member-countries will be held in Dushanbe in the spring
of 2006.

AZERI COUP PLOTTER FEARS CIVIL WAR IF ELECTIONS RIGGED
Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria
Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency
Oct 8 2005
The exiled Azerbaijani politician, Mahir Cavadov, who was implicated
in the 1995 attempt to seize power, has said that he fears a civil
war may be possible if the forthcoming election is rigged. In the
interview, published on a Chechen rebel website, he said his original
interview with an Azerbaijani publication was distorted and that the
attack on his brother was provoked by former Azerbaijani President
Heydar Aliyev. Whereas the West has a vested interest in the election
being legal, Russia wants to keep the incumbent President Ilham Aliyev
in power, he says. Cavadov, who hopes to return home from Austria,
says he supports the exiled former speaker Rasul Quliyev and would
like to see him tried in an open court, but it will be difficult for
him to return as he would be in danger of his life. The following
is the text of the interview headlined “Mahir Cavadov: ‘My interview
was distorted'” carried on the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency website on
8 October. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Rovsan Cavadov’s murder “provoked by former Azerbaijani leader”
The well-known Azerbaijani opposition MP Mahir Cavadov has approached
the Kavkaz-Tsentr news agency because he claims that the Azerbaijani
Day.az publication had distorted an interview he gave to journalists.
Kavkaz-Tsentr has received the full text of the original interview.
It will be recalled that Mahir Cavadov is the brother of the former
Azerbaijani Deputy Interior Minister Rovsan Cavadov who commanded
an OMON [special-purpose police detachment] regiment. Accused by
[former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev in 1995 of attempts to
seize power, Rovsan Cavadov was murdered, and Mahir fled to Austria
where he obtained political asylum. Mahir Cavadov himself believes
that the armed attack by the OMON regiment in 1995 was provoked by
Heydar Aliyev himself so as to take care of the real and powerful, as
he described it, force which was standing in the way of establishing
Aliyev’s regime of personal dictatorial power.
Here is the text of Mahir Cavadov’s letter as sent to the Kavkaz-Tsentr
editorial office:
>>From Mahir Cavadov, Salzburg, Austria, 28 September 2005. Mahir
Cavadov’s replies to questions put by Day.az in Azerbaijan, which
were forwarded by the journalist Zaur Rasulzada by e-mail.
Hello, Zaur bay [mode of address]! In accordance with our agreement,
I am sending you my replies to your nine questions. Respectfully yours,
Mahir Cavadov.
[Day.az agency] How do you assess the pre-election situation in
Azerbaijan?
Authorities preparing to rig the election
[Cavadov] The point about the current parliamentary election is that on
this occasion the administration cannot afford to behave in the coarse
and destructive way it did before when drawing up the documentation for
the registration of candidates. The fact is, the tactics are different,
but the plan of the authorities remains the same – they are preparing
to rig these elections, too. Whereas before the administration allowed
only its own people to participate in the elections, it now suits
their purpose that anyone who wants to can register. Why is this?
So it is easier for the administration to camouflage its candidates
under cover of “independent” and “opposition”, for example, [Milli
Maclis deputy] Asim Mollazada and the administration’s own people
grouped around him. But, in view of the fact that the authorities have
managed to keep the old electoral commission team, which rigged the
last elections, then the “independents” and “opposition” will enter
parliament not through the choice of the electorate, but because the
election was rigged.
But these crude actions are having a negative effect for the
administration, which to some extent is in the interests of the
opposition. Moreover, the current pre-election situation in Azerbaijan
is such that evident opponents of Russia and the West, who were not so
evident at the last elections, have been allowed to take part in them.
They are following these elections closely because whereas the
West now has a vested interest in these elections being legal, then
[Russian President Vladimir] Putin will strive to keep Ilham Aliyev
in power, which Iran also has a vested interest in. His value for
them lies in the fact that for many reasons he has not been able to
resolve Azerbaijan’s Karabakh problem which, in the opinion of Putin
and the Iranian leaders, based on the arguments of the Armenian side,
allegedly allows their states to avoid geopolitical processes which
they find undesirable.
These facts have been very clearly shown in Moldova and Georgia. In
these countries Putin’s Russia also took part in the elections, but
against their current leaders, because they, unlike Ilham Aliyev,
are really trying to restore their countries’ territorial integrity.
[Day.az] What are your predictions regarding the standoff between
the authorities and the opposition?
[Cavadov] Everyone knows that the previous elections in Azerbaijan
were rigged by the Aliyevs. The present opposition leaders lost these
elections to them. After every setback the opposition leaders promise
our people that at the next elections they will definitely get their
revenge. So these leaders have held out in the political arena until
the current elections which will be, as it were, the moment of truth
for them. The opposition leaders must win at this election, i.e. get
a decisive majority in parliament, otherwise the people will send
them packing whatever they say. They are obviously aware of this
fact. If they lose, they will resign, because these are the rules
of the political game adopted throughout the civilized world. It is
probable that these circumstances will force them to take radical
action against the authorities if the forthcoming election is rigged.
[Day.az] What is your position at these elections?
[Cavadov] I am on the side of the opposition. I will support them
with all my strength!
[Day.az] What do you think will be the West’s position on the results
of the elections?
[Cavadov] If the opposition leaders operate as in Georgia, Ukraine
and Kyrgyzstan and oppose election rigging, then I think the West
will support them. If not, then as in the past, the West will be
congratulating the authorities on their victory.
[Day.az] Do you plan to return to your Motherland?
[Cavadov] Yes!
[Day.az] What is your attitude to [the chairman of opposition
Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, ex-speaker in exile in the USA]
Rasul Quliyev?
Former speaker should be tried in open court
[Cavadov] I base my attitude to Rasul Quliyev by looking at the way
things are politically. In any event his struggle against the Aliyev
clan is part of the common struggle against tyranny. Therefore, I
will resolve the question of his involvement in the murder of Rovsan
Cavadov and the OMON affair not by way of mob law, but in an open
Azerbaijani court. And this will probably only be after the Aliyev
clan is removed from power. Although this is a very difficult task,
it is a possible one, so long as we – those who very much want this –
can sort out the relations between us!
I know what Quliyev is like and how he thinks. We all know that in
1993-96 the Aliyevs, using Quliyev against the opposition, were able to
disturb the political equilibrium in Azerbaijan in their own interests
– they removed [ex-President Abulfaz] Elcibay, [ex-Prime Minister]
Surat Huseynov, Rovsan Cavadov and many others from the political
arena. And when they were no longer there, Quliyev was no longer
of any use to them. Because he was weak in his strategic thinking,
at that time Quliyev failed to foresee the negative consequences of
his actions. After all, if these people had remained in the political
arena, the Aliyevs would not have been able to treat him in the way
they did. Quliyev was on his own against them.
At that time I tried to explain this to Quliyev, but he could
not understand it. Unfortunately, the Quliyev of 2005 is not very
different from the Quliyev of 1993-96. But still I support him, and
in this way I am trying to help restore the political equilibrium in
Azerbaijan. At the same time, we have to realize that the authorities
have created and deployed more than a hundred people like Quliyev in
the Azerbaijani political arena. But they, unlike the real Quliyev,
have been programmed in such a way that they consider the opposition
– and, therefore Quliyev himself – and not the authorities, to be
their opponents.
[Day.az] Do you think Quliyev will come back to take part in the
elections?
[Cavadov] I suspect that at so long as the Aliyevs are in power in
Azerbaijan it will be difficult for him to do this. But if in some way
he manages to get back to Azerbaijan, then it will be hard for him to
survive there, because the authorities do not intend to deal with him
in an official way. Ilham Aliyev has already issued an order to have
Quliyev killed if he sets foot on Azerbaijani territory, and then he
intends to accuse the OMON of this. In turn, I will try to help save
Quliyev because I have a vested political interest in his mission.
[Day.az] What do you think about Ilham Aliyev?
Ilham Aliyev’s “crimes”
[Cavadov] As you probably know, when Ilham Aliyev became president,
in the name of establishing civil peace in Azerbaijan, I acknowledged
his accession, and in return I proposed that he reject the criminal
past and disgraceful legacy of his father. However, he did not accept
such a proposal and when he started his direct rule the litany of all
these political murders and arrests of opposition members continued.
The continuation of his father’s policy automatically means he has
no interest in solving the Karabakh problem. His actions and talks
on this question can only be described as a fiction!
Thus, Ilham Aliyev has stooped to carrying out new crimes. Once a
person who has committed a crime remains unpunished, he will commit
further crimes in order to avoid punishment. My attitude to Ilham
Aliyev can be deduced by taking into account the above-mentioned
facts. I have no personal claims against him.
Fears of civil war
[Day.az] Do you think a revolution is possible in the country and
what will its consequences be for Azerbaijan?
[Cavadov] The state of our people and the biography of the people in
power in Azerbaijan is such that after the rigging of the current
parliamentary election, it is probable that there will not be
a revolution but a civil war! The consequences of such a war for
Azerbaijan as a state may be positive, but any civil war is accompanied
by human sacrifice, tragedy and destruction.

RUSSIA, ARMENIA PRACTICE QUELLING ANTI-GOVERNMENT UNREST
Agence France Presse — English
October 10, 2005 Monday 4:03 PM GMT
Russian and Armenian special forces practiced quelling an
anti-government uprising at a joint exercise in southern Russia on
Monday, an interior ministry spokesman said.
“Russian and Armenian special forces are ready to fulfil the tasks
they are set,” Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev was quoted
by the spokesman as saying after watching the exercises involving
some 1,500 officers near the city of Krasnodar.
In a mock-up of a real protest around 50 demonstrators led by
“provocateurs” converged on a square in front of a government building
demanding their wages be paid and the authorities’ resignation,
the spokesman told AFP.
Special forces officers intervened as demonstrators burst into the
building and took a number of hostages.
The exercises come amid signs of nervousness in the Russian
administration following popular uprisings in the three former Soviet
republics of Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
Armenia is Russia’s closest ally among the former Soviet republics
of the southern Caucasus.
It saw scores of anti-government demonstrations in 2003 and 2004
calling for the resignation of President Robert Kocharian after his
re-election in what opponents said was a rigged vote in March 2003.

EUROPE IS GOING TO NEED TURKEY ; EU MEMBERSHIP
by Giles Merritt
The International Herald Tribune, France
October 10, 2005 Monday
Brussels
In most European countries there are issues too sensitive to be
left to the voters; capital punishment is one, Turkey’s membership
of the European Union is another. In both cases there is a discreet
consensus between the main political parties that their electorates
would, if consulted, make the wrong decision.
Capital punishment is a good example of how this benign despotism
by Europe’s political elites eventually pays off. Public opinion
across Europe has been steadily coming round to the view that
judicial execution is morally repugnant. Similarly, the case for
bringing Turkey in and extending the EU’s borders to Iraq, Syria,
Armenia and Azerbaijan will no doubt also slowly win the approval of
today’s skeptics.
Across Europe, opinion on Turkey ranges from lukewarm to downright
hostile. In EU newcomer countries like Poland and Hungary, narrow
majorities welcome Turkish membership. In Spain, Portugal and Britain,
although something like a third are against, more than 40 percent
are in favor. At the other end of the spectrum, only a tenth of
Austrians want Turkey in, with four-fifths adamantly opposed. In
Germany three-quarters are in the no camp.
It’s never easy to tell whether politicians who declare themselves
against Turkish membership are motivated by objective considerations or
by opportunism and demagoguery. In any case, they were wrong to oppose
the opening of negotiations that will most probably last for 15 years.
Back in the mid-1980s, I was skeptical about Turkey’s case for joining
the European club. The consensus view then was that Turkey’s NATO
membership should be complemented by an enhanced economic relationship
with Europe, but no more.
When the Berlin Wall fell, my views changed entirely. In the uncertain
post-Communist world, I became convinced that Western Europe’s security
and prosperity depended on bringing stability to the former Soviet
satellite countries by admitting them to the EU.
The new situation clearly made it essential to bring Turkey into the
European bloc.
A glance at a map says it all. Turkey lies at the center of some of
the world’s most volatile regions the Black Sea and the Caucasus
republics and the hot spots of Central Asia, not to speak of the
Middle East. Turkey is already a regional power that exerts a strong
stabilizing influence on neighboring countries, so it is in Europe’s
long-term interest that Turkey should become firmly anchored in the EU.
Twenty years ago, the case against Turkish membership was chiefly
cultural and religious. Jacques Delors, the Frenchman who headed the
European Commission in its glory days, spoke of the difficulties of
admitting Turkey to “our Christian club.” Such deeply held prejudices
still lie at the heart of public hostility, even if nowadays political
realists see the religious issue in very different terms.
One of the great attractions of Turkish membership is that it could
create a bridge between Europe and the Islamic world.
Turkey is generally portrayed as a poor country whose many peasant
farmers will place intolerable financial strains on the EU. Yet the
economic advantages of bringing Turkey in are far more persuasive. By
2020, Europe’s active work force will be less than half the population,
whereas Turkey’s will be two-thirds. Europe needs Turkey’s increasingly
well-educated workers, and could do with the growing economic and
industrial muscle of a country that will soon be as populous as
Germany.
People who complain that the EU wouldn’t be the same with Turkey as a
member are living in a bygone age. In 15 years’ time, the Union will
by then have shrunk to less than 5 percent of the global population.
Europe is going to need as much new blood as it can get. Hard as it
is for Europeans to construct new democratic structures, such as its
doomed constitution, the truth is that the EU needs to be bigger and
more heterogeneous if it is to defend its citizens’ interests.
If Turkey’s European aspirations had to be abandoned, the outlook
would be worryingly uncertain. On the one hand, Islamic extremism
might feed on Western rejection. On the other, Turkey’s powerful
generals, always more popular than its politicians, who command a
million-strong army, might reverse the present trend and begin to
call the tune. Turkey as a loose cannon in one of the world’s most
geopolitically sensitive regions doesn’t bear thinking about.
*
Giles Merritt is secretary-general of Friends of Europe and editor
of the new policy journal Europe’s World.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

EUP HR DELEGATION FOCUSES ON RECOGNITION OF GENOCIDE
RISK MONITOR BRIEFING
October 10, 2005
According to Cumhuriyet, Members of the European Parliament Human
Rights Subcommittee led by Helene Flautre paid a visit to the Turkish
Parliament. During the meeting, delegation members called on Ankara
to recognize the Armenian genocide claims and consider the issue of
education in Kurdish. Polish members of the delegation noted that
Poland had to acknowledge its part in the Jewish holocaust and asked
when Turkey would face up to its own history.

US EMBASSY COMMENTS ON REPORTS OF TALKS WITH ARMENIAN OPPOSITION
Hayots Ashkhar, Armenia
Oct 6 2005
Headlined “The US embassy has replied to questions from Ayots Ashkhar”
Ayots Ashkhar daily has asked the US embassy in Armenia to clarify
the report of a meeting between Armenian opposition leaders and
the head of the council on Eastern Europe and Russia of the Central
Intelligence Agency, Martin Schwartz, [mentioned in previous reports
as head of the Eastern Europe and Russia department of the US National
Intelligence Council] at the US embassy in Armenia.
Yesterday we received a reply from the US embassy which says: “Dr
Martin Schwartz, who visited Armenia on 11-15 September, works as an
analyst in the CIA council which is a well-known organization based
in Washington. Senior analysts, as well as academicians are working
here to provide the US government with information about developments
abroad. Dr Schwartz’s visit was a factfinding one.
“As Ambassador Evans has repeatedly said publicly, the United States
supports the establishment of democratic institutions in Armenia
and the conduct of free and fair elections in the period allocated
for them. The Americans are confident that in a democratic state,
citizens should elect their leaders near ballot boxes by means of a
free and fair election, not in the streets. To support this approach,
the US government has already declared that it will initiate a number
of new developments that will help Armenia to conduct free and fair
parliamentary and presidential elections in 2007 and 2008.”

ACCUSED MURDERER ELECTED TOWN MAYOR IN ARMENIA
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
October 10, 2005, Monday 14:33:28 Central European Time
Yerevan
Armenian Armen Keshishyan will serve as mayor of the town of Nor-Atchin
from a jail cell after winning a local election during his trial for
murder, officials in the country’s capital Yerevan said Monday.
Keshishyan, who won an easy victory in the poll Sunday, was entitled to
run for office as no verdict had yet been pronounced for the killing
during an argument two weeks ago.
In a bizarre twist, the weapon Keshishyan allegedly used had been
presented to him by former Armenian prime minister Andranik Markaryan.
During his term of office, the ex-government head gave almost 590
firearms as gifts and awards. Some of the guns were later believed to
have been used in three killings and several attempted murders.

WRITER ‘UNLIKELY TO BE IMPRISONED’
The Independent (London)
October 10, 2005, Monday
Orhan Pamuk: Supporting Armenian genocide claim
ISTANBUL Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said he was confident
a court would dismiss charges against the best-selling Turkish writer,
Orhan Pamuk, who faces prison for supporting Armenian claims they
suffered a genocide under Ottoman Turks in 1915. Mr Gul said the
case would be probably be dismissed as a court had already thrown
out similar charges against another person.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

LEADING ARTICLE: THE FRIENDSHIP BRIDGE MUST NOT BE LOST: KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE
The Independent (London)
October 10, 2005, Monday
The scale of the devastation caused by the earthquake that struck the
Indian subcontinent defies imagination. More than 30,000 are believed
dead and more than double that injured across three countries.
Yesterday, with the death toll still rising, it was clear that the
region worst afflicted by far was Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Officials described it as the worst-ever disaster to have struck
Pakistan.
None of the countries affected is a stranger to natural disaster.
But, as with the South-east Asian tsunami last Christmas and more
recently with hurricane Katrina, the speed of modern travel and
communications now means that the images of human suffering are
brought into our homes early enough for us to feel that something
can still be done.
And much has been done. International rescue teams arrived in stricken
parts of Pakistan within 24 hours of the disaster. People have been
saved who would otherwise have died. Food, medicine and shelter
have been rushed to the region from dozens of countries, including
Britain. Inevitably there was criticism of lack of co-ordination,
duplicated effort and bureaucratic delays. But this was also a disaster
across vast and difficult terrain.
It would be invidious to draw any direct comparison between the
response to this massive disaster and the aftermath of Katrina in
New Orleans. The two are quite different. But President Musharraf
broadcast an urgent appeal for international assistance as soon as
the extent of the disaster was apparent. Formalities for incoming
aid and rescue teams appear to have been kept to the minimum.
Mutual offers of help between India and Pakistan were an especially
positive development. Natural disasters have provided unheralded
opportunities for human and diplomatic rapprochement in the past. The
Armenian earthquake of 1988 prompted the then Soviet Union to issue an
unprecedented call for international aid and throw open the country
to aid workers and reporters. Greece and Turkey sent rescue teams
and assistance to each other’s country after earthquakes in 1999,
defusing tension in other areas of bilateral relations.
The past two years have witnessed a gradual warming of relations
between India and Pakistan, with attempts to defuse the bitter and
long-running dispute over Kashmir. One of the casualties of Saturday’s
earthquake was the so-called friendship bridge that had recently
facilitated bus and foot traffic across the Line of Control.
The co-operation set in train by the earthquake raises the hope that it
will be the repair of the bridge, rather than its collapse, that will
set the tone for relations between these two neighbours in the future.

ARMENIAN JOURNALIST GETS SUSPENDED SENTENCE, FACES FURTHER DEFAMATION CASE
NTV Online website, Turkey
Oct 7 2005
Hrant Dink, the chief editor of the Armenian daily Agos, has been
sentenced to six months in prison. The sentence has been suspended
due to Dink’s good behaviour during the trial.
Dink was on trial for defaming Turks in an article he wrote. At
the trial which was held at the Sisli Second Criminal Court, Kemal
Kerincsiz, a member of the Jurists Union who is known for having
asked for the injunction on the Armenian conference and who attended
Dink’s trial as a complaining party, called for the punishment of
the suspect. The defence lawyers said there was no crime involved
and asked for Dink’s acquittal.
The judge ruled that in his column in Agos on 13 February 2004, Dink
insulted and vilified Turks. The judge sentenced him to six months
in prison. The judge then suspended the sentence on the grounds of
Dink’s good behaviour during the trial and because the judge believed
Dink would not commit another crime.
Dink faces another trial for a speech he delivered at the Global
Security, Terrorism and Human Rights panel meeting held in February
2002. He will stand trial for defamation. The trial is to be held at
the Urfa Third Criminal court on 9 February 2006.
Author Orhan Pamuk, too, will stand trial for defamation at the Sisli
Ninth Criminal Court on 16 December 2005.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress