GUAM PA ADOPTED A RESOLUTION ON NK CONFLICT
DeFacto Agency, Armenia
Sept 29 2005
A resolution on unsettled conflicts on the CIS territory including
Nagorno Karabakh conflict was adopted in the course of the sitting
of the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) Parliamentary
Assembly in Kishinev.
According to Freedom Radio Station, Azeri parliamentarian Jahangir
Guseynov rendered a report on the current stage of the Karabakh
settlement at the sitting. He called upon the parliamentarians to pay
special attention to the problem. Jahangir Guseynov also said he had
managed to include the issue referring to dislocation of the Russian
military bases from Georgia to Armenia into the GUAM PA agenda.
The next sitting of the GUAM PA is to be held in Kiev in early 2006.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AMBASSADORS FAIL TO AGREE FRAMEWORK FOR TURKEY ENTRY TALKS
AKI, Italy
Sept 29 2005
Brussels, 29 Sept. (AKI) – Just four days before Turkey is due to
begin membership talks with the European Union, ambassadors from
the 25-member bloc have failed to agree on a definitive framework
for the negotiations. Austria refused to give its go-ahead unless
the official negotiating framework includes the possibility that
‘privileged partnership’ may be the outcome of the talks rather than
full membership.
Britain, the current EU president, has convened a meeting of the 25
EU foreign ministers on Sunday to try to find a way forward.
Thursday’s impasse follows Wednesday’s slight to Turkey when the
European Parliament’s approved a resolution in which it supports
the start of membership talks with Turkey but lays down a series of
provisos. The parliament said recognition of the killing of more
than a million Armenians in 1915 as genocide was “a prerequisite
for accession”.
Euro-MPs also postponed a vote on extending Turkey’s customs
agreement to the ten newest member states because of Ankara’s refusal
to recognise Cyprus. The parliament’s decisions do not affect the
start of entry talks on 3 October, but are seen as a further sign of
European reluctance towards Turkey’s bid. The European Commission,
the EU’s executive arm, described the postponement of an important
vote on the trade agreement as “an own goal”.
The decision was motivated by Turkey’s recent declaration that
signing the protocol of the Ankara Agreement did not mean any form
of recognition of Cyprus, which became an EU member last May. Turkey
also refuses to admit naval vessels and airplanes from Cyprus.
The “privileged partnership” for Turkey being pushed by Austria
is also viewed positively by the German centre-right leader Angela
Merkel, while Ankara insists that nothing short of full membership
is acceptable.

TALKS ON TURKISH EU MEMBERSHIP FACE NEW HURDLES
By Eva Cahen
CNSNews.com Correspondent
CNSNews.com, VA
Sept 29 2005
Paris (CNSNews.com) – Just days before the European Union is due to
open accession talks with Turkey, the process is facing new hurdles
and concerns.
Some E.U. governments, unconvinced of the wisdom of allowing membership
to a large Muslim nation straddling Europe and Asia, are pressing
for some form of “partnership” instead.
The European Parliament raised further problems by voting not to
ratify a customs union with Turkey, and also insisting that Turkey
acknowledge as genocide the killing of some 1.5 million Armenian
Christians at the end of the Ottoman Empire.
The talks are due to begin in Luxembourg on Monday, but as of Thursday,
it was still unclear whether the Turkish foreign minister would even
attend, unless Ankara was satisfied with the negotiating criteria
set down by the E.U. over the next several days.
Although the eventual negotiations could take more than a decade,
Britain has made launching the talks a priority of its current
E.U. presidency.
Polls show that public opinion in Europe is generally opposed to
Turkish membership, a development that would substantially increase
the Muslim population in traditionally Christian Europe, bringing
it to 20 percent. Turkey would also become the largest and poorest
country in the bloc, which currently has 25 members.
Another fear is that cheap labor from Turkey would take away jobs
from Europeans who already face high unemployment rates.
Those favoring Turkey’s entry into the EU, including the British and
Italian governments, believe that the Muslim nation of 72 million
people could act as a bridge between Islam and Christianity. Its
adhesion to Europe would create a positive image of a Muslim democracy
and help to block the tide of Islamic fundamentalism.
The United States also is a firm supporter of E.U. membership for
Turkey, which is already a member of NATO and strategically situated
between Europe and the Middle East.
The Washington-based Center for Security Policy, which generally
supports Bush administration policies, has warned against opening
E.U. membership for Turkey.
In a brief, the center said billions of dollars from Saudi Arabia
and other Gulf countries were being laundered in Turkey to finance
terrorism.
Secular education was increasingly being transformed into religious
education, and this could in future years result in the transformation
of the population from a modern secular one to one that is more
radically Islamist, it said.
“Prime Minister [Recep] Erdogan is systematically turning his country
from a Muslim secular democracy into an Islamofascist state governed
by an ideology anathema to European values and freedoms,” the center
argued.
Turkey’s bid for membership dates back to 1960, but before its
application could be considered, it had to satisfy E.U. requirements
on democracy, human rights and justice.
Turkey has carried out reforms including changing the penal code,
abolishing capital punishment, reducing corruption and torture, and
improving the economy. Supporters argue that it has come a long way
and should not be turned away now.
“It would now be a huge betrayal of the hopes and expectations of
the Turkish people and of Prime Minister Erdogan’s reform program if,
at this crucial time, we turned our back on Turkey,” British Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw told the ruling Labor Party’s annual conference
on Wednesday.
“The Turkey of two years ago is not the same Turkey as you see today,”
said Amanda Akcakoca, a policy analyst at the European Policy Center
in Brussels.
However, many obstacles remain and will play a major role in the
accession talks. These include a need for Turkey to reduce corruption
and the role of the black market, normalizing relations with the
Greek Cypriot government (Turkey occupies northern Cyprus), opening
the border with Armenia, and granting the Kurdish minority more rights.
“The reform process won’t be easy,” said Akcakoca. “Both economic and
political changes are going to have to take place, but also a change
in mentality, where Turkey will have to stop seeing things in terms
of bargaining and will have to understand that they have to do what
they have to do and they can’t turn everything into a carpet sale.”
During the period of the accession talks the Turkish government
itself will need to maintain domestic public opinion in favor of EU
membership, despite the sometimes difficult reform requirements.
Some European governments are aware of the sensitivity of the issue,
and how it could impact their own political standing.
In France, for instance, President Jacques Chirac says he is in favor
of Turkish membership but the man thought in a strong position to
succeed him as president in 2007 elections, Interior Minister Nicolas
Sarkozy, is opposed. France has promised a referendum on the issue.
Austria opposes Turkish membership and has demanded that negotiations
should be for a “privileged partnership” instead.
According to a senior French diplomat, many European leaders are
hoping that the accession talks will in the end lead to that type of
partnership, rather than full membership.
“The negotiations cannot be started on that premise but they could
conclude with an agreement for Turkey to become a privileged partner,”
he said.
Turkey has so far rejected any formula short of full membership.
Akcakoca said she believed the accession talks would in the end result
in membership.
“History has shown that any country that has started [E.U.] accession
talks has finished them [successfully]. Personally, I think that Turkey
will finish and become a member of the EU in 15 to 20 years,” she said.
(CNSNews International Editor Patrick Goodenough contributed to
this report.)

CRUNCH TIME FOR SAAKASHVILI’S GOVERNMENT
By Zaal Anjaparidze
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
Sept 29 2005
So far, the Georgian government has weathered the latest cycle
of disturbances in the country’s restive regions. Tskhinvali, the
South Ossetian capital, came under mortar fire on the heels of its
celebration of the 15th anniversary of its declaration of secession
from Georgia. The coincidence of these two events has caused political
complications for Tbilisi (see EDM, September 22).
On September 22 the U.S. Department of State urged Russia to refrain
from supporting the South Ossetian separatists and simultaneously
demanded that Tbilisi reaffirm its adherence to finding a peaceful
solution to the Ossetian problem. The OSCE also condemned the
shelling. Demonstrating just how concerned the U.S. administration
has become with Tbilisi’s actions, U.S. Ambassador to Georgia John
Taft had a face-to-face meeting with Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili on September 21. The admonishment from Washington
prompted some pessimistic editorials. One of them, “Has Saakashvili’s
High American Hope Failed?” in the Akhali Taoba daily argues that
Washington’s rebuke of Tbilisi indicates that Tbilisi should not have
any illusions about using the United States in any military solution
to either the Ossetian or Abkhazian problems. Such a lecture from
Washington, according to the article, only encourages the separatists.
Soon after the Taft-Saakashvili conference, the Georgian Interior
Ministry dismantled most of the Georgian police checkpoints in the
conflict zone and withdrew Special Forces, having accused them of
abetting smugglers.
Now Tbilisi must either produce convincing evidence that the shelling
was the work of Russian troops deployed in the conflict zone, as
Georgian officials claim, or apologize publicly if an investigation
finds that Georgian forces initiated the shelling.
Needless to say, the latter finding would harm Saakashvili’s government
politically. Suspicions that the Georgian side might have been behind
the shelling are high, because the attack coincided with a surprise
visit by the hawkish Georgian minister of defense, Irakli Okruashvili,
to the ethnic Georgian enclave in South Ossetia. Giorgi Khaindrava,
Georgian state minister for conflict resolutions and the chief
Georgian negotiator for the South Ossetian peace talks, has hinted at
his upcoming resignation and labeled the initiators of the shelling
“degenerates.”
Saakashvili reported on September 24 that “very interesting details”
have emerged during the OSCE-monitored investigation of the incident.
The command of the Russian peacekeepers argues that Tskhinvali has been
shelled from the Georgian villages. Meanwhile, the Georgian parliament
is actively debating the withdrawal of the Russian peacekeepers from
the conflict zone, which inevitably would exacerbate the already
volatile Georgian-Russian relations.
Shortly after the violence in South Ossetia, secessionist
groups in Samtskhe-Javakheti, an ethnic-Armenian region on the
Armenia-Georgia border, stepped up their activities. A council of
local non-governmental organizations, meeting September 23-24, adopted
a resolution calling on the Georgian government to grant autonomy to
the region, including the creation of a “Samtskhe-Javakheti parliament
through free and direct elections.” According to the resolution,
by offering the highest degree of autonomy to South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, which had violated Georgia’s territorial integrity, Tbilisi
is discriminating against other ethnicities that reside in Georgia
and have demonstrated their loyalty to the central government.
The relative stability in this tumultuous region, which regards any
decision by Tbilisi with suspicion, is delicate. On September 19,
police from the town of Akhalkalaki went on strike, protesting the
recent decision by the Georgian Interior Ministry to replace the
local police chief, Mkhitar Abadjian, with Aram Pogosov, an adviser to
Saakashvili’s personal envoy to Samtskhe-Javakheti, without consulting
the local authorities. Armenian sources say that Abadjian was fired
for excessive advocacy of the interests of the local Armenians.
During the July 17 Georgian-Armenian clash in the village of Samsar
(see EDM, August 3) the Abadjian-led local police sided with the
local Armenians. David Rstakian, leader of the local non-registered
political party Virk, complains that Tbilisi purposefully removes
from key posts in Samtskhe-Javakheti any Armenians who were educated
in Yerevan. Meanwhile, on September 24, Van Baiburt, a member of the
Georgian parliament and deputy chair of the public movement “Union of
Georgia’s Armenians,” dismissed the Samtskhe-Javakheti NGOs demand for
regional autonomy. Ethnic Armenians compose 5.7% of the 4.4 million
population of Georgia, according to the latest census.
Alarming trends are also emerging in Kvemo Kartli, a southeastern
region predominantly populated by about 300,000 ethnic Azeris. On
September 23, a Tbilisi court sentenced Telman Gasanov, the
former executive of Gardabani district, to three months in jail
on charges of organizing an unsanctioned rally. On September 16,
Gasanov and his 40 supporters blocked the central highway demanding
dual citizenship and equal rights for Azeris living in Georgia. The
provocative proclamations demanding autonomy for the Azeri-populated
region appeared in early September. The local radical Azeri groups,
as well as some Azeri media, increasingly refer to Kvemo Kartli using
the Azeri toponym, “Borchalo,” which implicitly questions the Georgian
origin of this area.
Georgian analysts and politicians unanimously agree that external
forces are responsible for the recent disturbances in these regions,
and the assistance from the international community, which Georgia
acutely needs to resolve the frozen and potential regional conflicts,
appears to have differed from what Tbilisi expected. This may explain
why Saakashvili’s recent public remarks contained some criticism of
the West and international bodies.
(Regnum, September 23; Resonance, September 26-27; Akhali Taoba,
September 24; Civil Georgia, September 25-26; PanArmenian.net,
Itar-Tass, TV-Rustavi-2, September 24)

TURKEY TO BE FORCED TO LEAVE TALKS ON ITS OWN WILL
zaman.com
By Selcuk Gultasli
Zaman, Turkey
Sept 29 2005
It was expected that this time the Armenian issue would not be inserted
into the joint decision of the European Parliament (EP).
Even the Greens thought to submit a proposal saying that the fact
that the Armenian Conference was held in Istanbul has started a new
era in Turkey. However, they gave up with the fear that “genocide”
could be added to the proposal.
On Wednesday, the European Parliament gave a very inappropriate
reply to the conference held with the big support of Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For the first time, the Armenian
“genocide” has been inserted into EU documents as a precondition for
membership. The draft decision can be ignored to a certain degree as
it is not binding. However, after the Cyprus counter-declaration and
the Negotiation Framework Document, the Supplementary Protocol whose
ratification was postponed yesterday, became a safety valve that
will be kept in standby which could stop the negotiations. Because,
the EP’s approval is needed for the implementation of Supplementary
Protocol; the European Parliament will shape its decision about the
Supplementary Protocol according to the attitude of Turkey.
Face to face with this picture, there are a few scenarios Turkey
can set in play over the Supplementary Protocol. Ankara can delay
the approval of the Supplementary Protocol in Turkish Grand National
Assembly (TBMM) and wait for the tension to fall. However, both the EP
and the Greek Cypriot government, together with the support of France,
Greece and Austria, will prevent this issue from getting out of the
agenda. The EU’s counter declaration already plans for the issue to
be revised in 2006.
The second possibility, in the frame of EP’s demands, is that the
government does not send the Cyprus declaration to Turkish Parliament
for ratification. Turkey has long been communicating to Europeans that
this is not possible. Another possibility is that Turkey passes the
Supplementary Protocol and the declaration; and challenges the EP. In
this case, EP will probably disapprove the Supplementary Protocol
and call for the suspension of talks.
Meanwhile, it should also be noted that the Negotiation Frame Document
(NFD) has not been approved yet. If Austria’s obstinacy of “privileged
partnership” is not stopped in today’s EU Permanent Representatives
Committee (COREPER), the emergency meeting of foreign ministers will
be held over the weekend and Turkey will be made open to last minute
accomplished facts as it was in December 17.
As the EP’s decision on Wednesday obviously showed, the EU is doing
all it can to make Turkey leave the negotiations on its own will.
Even if the negotiation process, which is made almost unsustainable
with the counter declaration, NFD, and the EP’s latest decision, starts
on October 3, until when will it last? This is the main question to
be answered now!
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

GHOUKASYAN: ACTIVENESS OF INVESTORS FROM SPYURK IS ONE OF THE MAIN PLEDGES OF SOLUTION OF NKR PROBLEMS
DeFacto Agency, Armenia
Sept 29 2005
On September 28 Nagorno Karabakh Republic President Arkady Ghoukasyan
met a delegation of representatives of business circles and public
organizations of Armenian community of New York headed by artistic
director of Ardzagank Armenian TV Company in the US.
According to the information De Facto got at the RA President’s press
service, the meeting’s participants discussed the issues referring
to strengthening and development of relations between NKR and Spyurk.
Having expressed his gratitude to the Armenian community of New
York for the assistance being rendered to Nagorno Karabakh the NKR
President stressed the importance of activation of Spyurk investment
activity in the Republic. According to Arkady Ghoukasyan, it is one
of the main pledges of solution of Artsakh socio – economic problems.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT CALLED FOR RECOGNITION OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE BY ANKARA
DeFacto Agency, Armenia
Sept 29 2005
In the course of the plenary session that took place in Strasbourg
on Wednesday European parliamentarians ratified a resolution on the
beginning of talks on Turkey’ entry into the EU. 356 deputies voted
for the resolution, 181 against, while 125 refrained.
European parliamentarians stressed Turkey should recognize the
Armenian Genocide and Republic of Cyprus. The items have been fixed
in the resolution.
To note, Turkish Prime Minister Rejep Tayip Erdogan has repeatedly
stated Turkey does not intend to recognize Cyprus and is categorically
against any terms of its membership in the CE.

All Systems Go: SOAD’s Mental Metal
By Adam Bregman
TheStranger.com, WA
Sept 29 2005
System of a Down
w/the Mars Volta, Hella
Wed Oct 5, KeyArena, 7 pm, $31.50-$44, all ages.
In the insular world of mainstream metal where thousands of bands
look and sound exactly alike, and use the same vaguely Satanic font
for their band logos, such factors as original concepts, progressive
politics, and ethnic influences are not at a premium. One outfit that
has strayed from the conventional at every turn is System of a Down,
perhaps the freakiest group to ever sell millions of records.
Four Armenian dudes from L.A. sporting funky goatees, SOAD first
came onto the scene in the late ’90s, at the same time as nu-metal
was spreading like bad acne amongst pierced mall rats. They were
originally lumped in as a niche act along with bands hidden in idiotic
masks, but broke off from that pack by virtue of actually writing
intelligent songs.
Everything seemed to coagulate perfectly on 2001’s stunning Toxicity,
a record that came along like a fierce kick to the loins. Featuring
“Chop Suey!” and “Toxicity,” the most spastic singles to ever be
played on radio continuously, Toxicity was wholly noncommercial and
ferociously berserk. Pulverizing crunch chords piled up like giant
steel planks, their peculiar time changes could throw an elephant off
balance, and genuinely melodic parts were trapped between blistering
metal anthems. Toxicity also showcased power drill-like beats,
drunken clown rhythms, and a delicate balance of fury and melody,
which the band pulls off exquisitely. Another key component: singer
Serj Tankian’s sometimes screwball, but more often dramatic, vocals
that are squarely in the metal tradition of operatic exaggeration.
In “Deer Dance,” one of Toxicity’s indignant protest songs, the lyrics
were inspired by the police riots at the 2000 Democratic National
Convention, when mounted cops cleared thousands of protestors with
a flurry of rubber bullets. (“Beyond the Staples Center/You can see
America/With its tired poor avenging disgrace/Peaceful loving youth
against the brutality/Of plastic existence.”) The brutal chorus
“Pushing little children/With their fully automatics/They like to
push the weak around” pummels the listener to the ground like a
testosterone-laden LAPD thug.
One of the main issues creeping into all their releases, though,
is an awareness of the Armenian Genocide (1895-1915), when Ottoman
Turks killed some 1.5 million Armenians. The U.S. government has
never recognized the genocide for fear of upsetting its military ally,
Turkey, whose government to this day denies it ever happened. The band
puts real force behind this key Armenian-American issue by organizing
large benefits for the Armenian National Committee of America, which
lobbies Congress to officially recognize the atrocity.
As SOAD’s popularity has grown exponentially, the band has made no
concessions in their music or their politics. Their latest record
Mezmerize, the first of a two-disc set (the second half, Hypnotize,
arrives in November), is another radical slice of odd-tasting pie.
Mezmerize isn’t all social critique-take the blatantly silly “Old
School Hollywood,” which was apparently inspired by actor Tony Danza
cutting in line at a baseball game. But then there’s the fiery payback
anthem, “Revenga,” and the puzzling “Radio/Video,” which have plenty
of hooks, though SOAD drop wacky harmonies, perverse screeching,
and circus chord progressions whenever possible.
Beyond their blasts of thunder and raining glass, SOAD once again
showcase amazingly sharp lyrics. Heshers concerned with politics
rarely venture beyond the issues of censorship, legalizing pot, and
the evils of Christianity. More in the spirit of punk rock, SOAD
are truly outraged by the millions of people forced to live below
poverty in one of the world’s richest nations. Their current hit,
Mezmerize’s “B.Y.O.B,” is about how those same poor folk are shipped
off to die in Iraq. With its repeated howl of “Why do they always
send the poor?/Why don’t presidents fight the war?” this single is a
rare detour from the regular sort of moronic mouthing off one expects
from Mallternative radio.
One of the album’s strangest cuts is “Cigaro,” which rips along at
the pace of a frenzied hardcore punk tune. The song’s concept is
fairly simple, comparing war and global politics to a cock-sizing
contest. However, SOAD may be the first metal band to make fun of
machismo, tie the idea to world leaders committing genocide, and then
put forth the whole argument in a song that manages to be zany and
bone crunching at the same time. Bursting with new-fangled ideas like
insane, pissed-off physicists, System of a Down simply stand alone.

EU FAILS TO AGREE ON TURKEY
Islamic Republic News Agency, Iran
Brussels, Sept 29, IRNA
European Union ambassadors meeting here Thursday failed to agree on
a negotiating framework with Turkey.
A spokesperson for the European Commission, Krisztina Nagy, told
reporters that discussions on Turkey will continue till the last
moment.
According to media reports, EU foreign ministers will hold an emergency
meeting in Luxembourg on Sunday to resolve the deadlock over Turkey’s
membership bid.
EU and Turkey are expected to begin accession negotiations on Monday
in Luxembourg.
The EU deadlock follows Austria’s insistence that Turkey be offered
a special partnership with the EU as alternative to full membership.
Turkey says it will not accept anything less than full membership.
Austria is also calling for membership negotiations with Croatia to
begin simultaneously on October 3.
“Those two issues from the Commission’s point of view are not linked.
Each country will be dealt with on its own merits,” said the Commission
spokesperson.
On Wednesday, the European Parliament passed a resolution calling
on Turkey to “recognize the Genocide of the Armenians,” and said it
considers this act a “prerequisite to accession to the European Union.”

TOO SOON FOR TURKISH DELIGHT
The Economist, UK
Sept 29 2005
>>From The Economist Global Agenda
Formal talks are about to begin on Turkish membership of the European
Union. Within Turkey and outside it, there are questions about
the predominantly Muslim country’s readiness for Europe-but also
encouraging signs.
BARRING last-minute upsets, never to be ruled out as the diplomats
continued haggling this week, Turkey is on the brink of realising
its fondest national dream: on Monday October 3rd, formal talks will
begin on Turkish membership of a European Union at whose gate it has
been waiting for 40 years.
But as so often happens, the settlement of one question-should Turkey
step all the way into the EU’s ante-room?-has quickly given rise to
a host of others. People are already asking how long rapprochement
with the EU can be sustained, in the face of opposition in Europe to
Turkey-and in Turkey to Europe.
Scepticism over the Turks surfaced again this week in the European
Parliament. The legislators, while endorsing the start of talks with
the government in Ankara, balked at ratifying Turkey’s inclusion
in a customs protocol-on the grounds that the ships and aircraft of
Cyprus, an EU member, are still barred from Turkish ports. Dominique
de Villepin, the French prime minister, had earlier said that Turkey
must recognise Cyprus in order to join the EU. Nicolas Sarkozy,
a popular Gaullist who is well placed to win the French presidency
in 2007, opposes Turkish membership. So does Angela Merkel, who
is favourite to take Germany’s chancellorship following its recent
elections, which ended in a hung parliament. Overall, just 35% of
EU citizens support Turkish membership, according to a recent poll
by Eurobarometer. Europeans are queasy about the idea of taking in a
big Muslim member, and of hordes of Turkish job-seekers overwhelming
the EU’s current members.
But the other part of Turkey’s Euro-question is even harder: how
much resistance will there be among the Turks to the changes-legal,
economic, and above all cultural-that the EU is demanding?
For Turks who want a European future, there was a dollop of hope
last weekend, when brave historians managed to hold a conference in
Istanbul to discuss the fate of the Ottoman Armenians. It was the
first time Turkish pundits were permitted to challenge publicly the
official line, holding that the mass deportation of Armenians in
1915 did not amount to a conspiracy to kill them. As participants
read out letters between the “Young Turks” then ruling the empire,
a rapt audience was left with no doubt that hundreds of thousands of
Armenians were deliberately slain.
Planned originally for May, the Armenian forum was called off then
at the behest of Cemil Cicek, the justice minister. It was nearly
scuppered anew last week, when an Istanbul court used a technicality to
order its cancellation. This time Mr Cicek offered a way out-changing
the venue. And Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister, condemned
the court ruling: the first time an elected leader had so publicly
rebuked Turkey’s courts. It was also the first time that Mr Erdogan
had so clearly given a lead to public opinion instead of pandering
to populism. The establishment media fell in behind him, decrying
the noisy nationalists who pelted the conference delegates with eggs.
Cynics, who recall Mr Erdogan’s earlier moves to appease conservatives
by criminalising adultery, see his recent outburst of liberalism as a
last-ditch effort to clinch the October 3rd date. Be that as it may,
people close to the prime minister insist he has pinned his political
fortunes on further reforms, with or without the EU. “He can’t compete
on nationalism with the ultra-nationalists, so it’s in his interest
to keep on reforming,” says a western diplomat.
This may explain some other recent moves by Mr Erdogan: he dared
to admit, in a speech in the Kurdish stronghold of Diyarbakir, that
Turkey had erred in its dealings with the Kurds. These frank words
enraged nationalists, including some members of his own party. In
the country as a whole, nationalism has been bubbling: it has been
rising since June 2004, when the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK) ended a five-year truce.
Chauvinism has surfaced in ugly ways. There have been attempted
lynchings of Kurdish civilians outside their native south-east
region. A recent poll shows the jingoistic Nationalist Action Party,
which failed to enter parliament in the 2002 elections, would gain
seats today.
As well as countering this dark mood, Mr Erdogan must cope with
foes in the army who fear that rapprochement with Europe will reduce
their power-and who see in Turkey’s internal conflicts a chance to
restore that influence. But Mr Erdogan has rebuffed army demands
to re-introduce a draconian anti-terror law. Solving the Kurdish
problem requires more democracy, not repression, he insists. He may
have to take further risks-for example by endorsing, despite army
opposition, a deal that would coax 5,000 PKK fighters from their
mountain strongholds, both in northern Iraq and within Turkey.
The coming year will be a big test of Mr Erdogan’s leadership.
Austria, a sceptic on Turkish entry, takes over the presidency of the
EU in January. The Austrians will doubtless promote their idea of a
“privileged partnership” between Turkey and Europe, instead of full
membership. Next year will also see the retirement of General Hilmi
Ozkok, a liberal chief of the general staff. His likely successor
is the land-forces commander, Yasar Buyukanit, a more old-fashioned
type of soldier. It is to keep such secularist hawks at bay that
Mr Erdogan has ignored some demands from his pious voters, such as
boosting religious education and easing curbs on the headscarf.
Another challenge, in his dealings both with sceptical Europeans and
his own voters, is to honour his claim to be giving Turkey its first
clean government. Charges of irregularity in the sale of shares in
the state refinery, Tupras-and also in a tender for the operation
of Istanbul’s Galata port-have weakened that claim. Unless he deals
with sleaze, Mr Erdogan may lose the trust of his own citizens and
his European partners. That would be a pity, when the prime minister
has risked so much for Turkey’s European future.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress