Azeri, Armenian leaders not invited to G8 summit in St-Petersburg, official says
Trend news agency, Baku
10 Jul 06
The Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents [Ilham Aliyev and Robert
Kocharyan] have not been invited to the G8 summit in St-Petersburg to
discuss the peaceful settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict,
Novruz Mammadov, head of the foreign relations department at the
Azerbaijani presidential administration, has told Trend.
He voiced his surprise at the local media reports which were circulated
on behalf of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, on a possible meeting
of the Armenian and Azerbaijani in St-Petersburg within the framework
of the G8 summit,
“I do not have any precise information about this. An invitation to the
summit by the G8 leaders is an option that suits us well. Meanwhile,
there is no information about this,” Mammadov said and added that
chances to be intived to the summit are very low.
There has been no invitation so far and I do not know whether they
will be issued, Mammadov said.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Russia trying to redraw borders in conflict zone – Georgian minister
Channel 1, Tbilisi
10 Jul 06
[Presenter] As we speak, Deputy Foreign Minister Merab Antadze is
commenting on the situation at Ergneti [police checkpoint on South
Ossetian border through which Russian, Armenian citizens have been
trying to enter Georgian-controlled territory since Russia closed
the Zemo Larsi – Qazbegi border crossing on 8 July]. We go live to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs:
[Antadze, addressing a briefing] As for sending them [from Zemo Larsi]
to the Roki Tunnel [on South Ossetia section of Georgian-Russian
border], I should tell you that this is not only a gross violation
of a Georgian-Russian agreement. This is [also] a calculated attempt
by Russia to move the Georgian-Russian border from Roki to Ergneti
and to destabilize the situation in the region and increase military
tension in the conflict zone.
At the same time, I should state very clearly that Georgia will not
allow the transfer of the de facto border and will not fall for the
continued acts of provocation staged by the separatists and their
supporters in the conflict zone.
I should also tell you that the people who will have arrived at the
Roki Tunnel from the Russian side before 14 July, as well as those
who have already entered Georgian territory, [will be allowed in]
out of humanitarian considerations. You probably know that there
are children and elderly people among them and they are in quite a
difficult situation.
I should once again stress that all of this has been caused by Russia’s
efforts, essentially encouraging these people to break Georgian
law. Their action amounts to the violation of Georgian law. We have
nevertheless decided that until 14 July people coming to Georgia
will be able to proceed [through Ergneti] without hindrance. This
applies only to people. Freight and other kinds of traffic will be
stopped. This will last until 14 July only.
As for the actions which, as I have said, continue to take place in the
conflict zone, they are aimed at raising tension. We have information
to this effect. Russian officials’ recent statements in the media
that Georgia is preparing to settle the conflict in Tskhinvali region
by force are an attempt to prepare both the Russian public and the
international community for possible military action, which Russia,
it its own words, will resort to should there be a need to protect
its citizens in the conflict zone.
I should once again state that we will not fall for these acts
of provocation. We have a very clear programme and we will try to
implement this programme and settle the conflict by peaceful means
together with our partners.
I would also like to say a few words about the appalling act of
terrorism which took place in Tskhinvali. I am referring to the
terrorist attack on [Oleg] Alborov [South Ossetian security council
secretary].
I should state with full responsibility that this was an act
of terrorism aimed at getting rid of a political opponent. This
individual was one of just a few – unfortunately – representatives
of the de facto authorities with a clear vision of prospects for
the cohabitation of the Georgian and Ossetian peoples. He had a very
realistic understanding of the situation.

Russia urges Georgia to show “understanding” on checkpoint closure
RIA Novosti
11 Jul 06
Moscow, 11 July: Russia expects Georgia to show understanding over the
temporary closure of the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint and not to obstruct
the crossing of the Russian-Georgian border in other areas, Russian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin has told RIA-Novosti.
“We hope the Georgian side will show understanding on this purely
temporary measure and not obstruct the use of border-crossing
facilities on the Russian-Georgian border in other areas,” he said.
In the diplomat’s words, the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint has indeed been
closed for a technical upgrade since 8 July.
“The need for this arises in particular because this checkpoint was
repeatedly used by multinational crime groups for smuggling drugs,
gunmen and weapons into Russia for terrorist and other purposes. Some
of these cases happened very recently,” the Russian Foreign Ministry
spokesman said.
He noted that the Russian side realized all the difficulties this
decision caused for the public and for goods producers, including those
from Armenia, and was looking for ways to ease these difficulties.

Moldovan leader says Russian gas price hike, wine ban not political
Infotag news agency
11 Jul 06
Chisinau, 11 July: Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin does not
believe that Russia’s decision to increase the price for gas supplied
to Moldova is politically motivated.
[Russia has increased the gas price for Moldova from 80 dollars per
1,000 cu.m. in 2005 to 110 dollars in the first six months of 2006
and then to 160 dollars starting from 1 July 2006.]
Speaking at a news conference in Chisinau today, Voronin said: “We
indeed do not see politics behind Moldovan-Russian energy supplies
relations. Russia has changed its position on gas supply with regard
to all countries without exception – Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia
and Armenia. Trying to see here something exclusively anti-Moldovan
means nothing but incompetence. If we joined the Russia-Belarus union
tomorrow, which in fact is impossible, then the gas price for Moldova
will not decrease.”
According to him, “the situation is different when it comes to Russia’s
embargo on Moldovan wine”.
[Russia banned imports of alcoholic beverages from Moldova in late
March 2006, citing sanitary requirements.]
“However, even here the exception confirms the rule. Even though
Moldova has not yet received any official documents proving the low
quality of our produce, it is also very difficult to see politics
behind this decision. Look, at present the Russian market is
practically closed to wine exports from all over the world. In fact,
a wine embargo was imposed on Georgian, French and Chilean wines,”
Voronin said.
He said that “if we are called an independent state, then we must
be independent”.
“As regards wine exports, then [we should] rely on other criteria, we
should proceed from quality and look for new markets. Maybe one day we
will thank Russia for helping us diversify the market,” Voronin added.

Iranian president begins four-day provincial visit
IRNA website, Tehran
11 Jul 06
Tabriz, East Azarbayjan, 11 July: President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad,
accompanied by members of his cabinet, arrived in the northwestern
provincial capital, Tabriz, Tuesday morning [11 July] for an official
visit.
On hand to welcome the president and his entourage at Tabriz
international airport were the representative of the vali-ye faqih
(religious jurisprudent [Khamene’i]) in East Azarbayjan Province,
governor-general, provincial Majlis deputies and other senior
officials.
On the first day of his four-day visit, the president is scheduled to
address residents of Tabriz and meet with local residents of Malekan
and Bonab cities.
He will hold separate meetings with senior officials and families of
martyrs and war veterans of the province.
He will also address residents of 19 cities of the province.
On the last day of his visit, he and his cabinet ministers will hold
a session in Tabriz to discuss the province’s problems and needs.
East Azarbayjan Province has a population of 3.5 million.
The 235-km Aras river forms an international border between the
province and Azarbayjan Republic and Armenia.
President Ahmadinezhad’s current provincial visit is his 16th to
various provinces of the country since the start of his initiative
of bringing the government closer to the people.
He and his cabinet have already visited the provinces of South
Khorasan, Sistan-Baluchestan, Ilam, Qom, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Chahar
Mahal and Bakhtiari, Lorestan, Golestan, Kohkiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad,
and Khorasan- Razavi, Zanjan, Markazi, Qazvin and Hamedan.

Bulgarian premier delivers lecture on EU integration, reforms in Strasbourg
BTA website, Sofia
10 Jul 06
Strasbourg/Sofia, 10 July: “Europe must be confident to continue the
EU enlargement, the prospective members need political commitments
and assistance:” this was the highlight of a nearly hour-long lecture
that Bulgarian Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev delivered within the
framework of at the concluding seminar of the Summer University for
Democracy in Strasbourg on Monday [10 July], the Government Information
Service said in a press release.
Within this context, the PM said that Bulgaria firmly supports the
Western Balkans’ EU integration. He expressed his conviction that the
policy of integration with the Western Balkans will be a clear sign of
the EU’s new capabilities, especially concerning the important role of
regional cooperation. “It is a sine qua non condition for membership
and for the membership prospect, which is why the EU should outline
a clear European perspective for the Western Balkans,” Stanishev
said. He expressed the opinion that the European Constitution fell
victim to the inadequate communication and to the negative public
moods in the EU, due to insufficient information on the essence of
that instrument. Institutions at all levels therefore need to engage
in vigorous dialogue with citizens, the prime minister said.
“A stable democracy should have shared values, ideas and a critical
mass of public support and participation,” the Bulgarian head
of government said. “A lot of people want to get involved in the
democratic process, and freedom of speech is not enough in this
sense. It also takes responsibility and accountability. A multi-party
system and free-elections are not enough, either: what really matters
is the rule of law,” Stanishev stressed in his lecture. “We are
witnessing a number of institutional problems, but the EU impact
instruments seem insufficient and, therefore, the worst problem to
my mind is the lack
of communication and dialogue with citizens,” he added.
The prime minister expressed the opinion that the ever decreasing
participation of people in political life makes it possible for
populism to find ever broader support in the countries of Central and
Eastern Europe, even though it does not propose feasible solutions
to problems. “At the same time, however, the space of democracy has
expanded, and this is an enormous success for Europe,” he noted. “The
societies of Central and Eastern Europe thus got closer to the
democratic traditions and to one another, and EU integration became
a model and a factor of change. The very fact of harmonization of
legislation is a major success,” the prime minister said. Stressing
that the democratic European societies need more common policies and
a balance between values and changes, he expressed his categorical
conviction that Europe can achieve this goal. In his lecture Stanishev
also analysed the problems of globalization, arguing that Europe must
make efforts at the economic as well as the political level.
The prime minister answered exhaustively the numerous questions
he was asked by the participants in the Summer University for
Democracy. Replying to a question, he reiterated that the reform
process in Bulgaria will continue even after 1 January 2007 in close
cooperation with the European Commission. “Some things remain to be
done, but with the help of the European institutions and internal
pressure, say, by the strong media in Bulgaria which are independent
from the government, I believe that we will achieve a positive
result,” the
prime minister said.
Later in the day, Stanishev attended a formal luncheon hosted by
Council of Europe Secretary-General Terry Davis. The first school was
founded in Moscow in 1992, to train the new generation of political,
economic, social and cultural leaders. It is not an academic study
course as such, but a series of seminars and annual conferences
on such themes as European integration, democracy, human rights,
the rule of law and globalisation. The annual programme includes
national activities and a closing session at the Council of Europe’s
headquarters in Strasbourg. At present 11 schools are operating
in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria,
Serbia, Kosovo/UNMIK, “the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia” and
Croatia. New schools are in the process of constitution in Albania,
Azerbaijan, and Bosnia and Hercegovina.

Azerbaijan able to defend itself – minister
ANS TV, Baku
26 Jun 06
[Presenter] Azerbaijan is an independent state and can defend its
territorial integrity, Defence Minister Safar Abiyev has said in a
statement on the occasion of Armed Forces Day.
[Abiyev] I have a dream. The occupied lands must be liberated and
the tasks of the armed forces are to make preparations and liberate
those lands by force if necessary. Everything takes time.
Azerbaijan gained its independence in 1991. The key issue is to
preserve our independence. Not only Armenia but major states too
were against Azerbaijan. They wanted to keep it under control and
even nowadays they want to achieve this. Time will come and major
states, which are exerting pressure on Azerbaijan, will understand
that Azerbaijan is an independent state and can defend its lands and
territorial integrity.

Paper warns of “war of regions” in Azerbaijan
Zerkalo website, Baku
17 Jun 06
Azerbaijan is coming under threat from radical movements in both the
north and the south of the country because of the rise in radical
Islamic groups, an Azeri newspaper has reported. In the north,
anti-Shiite fundamentalist organizations are gaining strength and Iran
is using anti-US propaganda to win support in the south. The paper
says residents in the Lerik district regard Iran as their Motherland
and say that if the Americans attack Iran they will fight them. The
following is an excerpt from the report by I. Abbasov and A. Rasidoglu
entitled “War of the regions” published on Azerbaijani newspaper
Zerkalo website on 17 June; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
“Non-believers and servants of the devil have managed to a large
extent to bury the true religion of God. Only in Iran could Muslims
preserve Islam.”
[passage omitted: Islam still being preserved in Iran]
Iran “Motherland” to people in south
A Zerkalo correspondent became personally convinced that there is a
sense of a “successful Iranian war of propaganda”, which has begun in
the southern regions of our country, and, it seems, Teheran is again
gambling on being one step ahead. Some people in the villages of Lerik
[close to the Iranian border in Azerbaijan] have made it clear that
they consider Iran to be their Motherland. It goes without saying
that they know who Iran’s enemies are, that is those who oppose it,
in other words “the Zionists and servants of the devil”.
In Lerik, some of the people we spoke to wanted to prove to us that
the Almighty is summoning Muslims to fight against the non-believers.
In over 100 ayats [chapters] of the Holy Koran they are instructed
to fight on God’s path. “God knows best what is good for us,” some
of the people of Lerik said. We should point out straightaway that it
is not a question that in this region orthodox Muslims have begun to
hold on to the canons of Islam. That is not the point. Even with the
naked eye one can see that, hiding behind religion, certain circles
have started to play a political game.
“We are not afraid of the USA. We are expecting the Americans to
attack the sacred land of Iran. And then we shall rise against
the non-believers. We cannot wait for our spiritual leader Seyyed
Ali Khamene’i or some other member of the mojahedin to declare the
beginning of a Jihad. As soon as it happens, like true Muslims we shall
defend our religion from the Zionists,” the father of two children
told a Zerkalo correspondent. In a word, they tried to convince us that
defending the Muslims is not politics. Those people who are prepared to
die for Iran’s integrity have not even allowed themselves to believe
that Karabakh is our land, it is occupied, and that we are committed
before God and before our Motherland to liberate it. In other words,
the occupation of Iran by the USA is more important to them than the
liberation of Karabakh. “Islam is the main thing. We shall gladly die
for our religion, and everything else has no particular significance
for us,” some people in the southern region tried to convince us.
Whatever the situation, there is no doubt that Iran’s positions in
the southern regions of Azerbaijan are very strong. But this is not
the most terrible thing. Some people are trying to sow hatred in the
conscience of our citizens for our own brothers in faith, the Sunnis.
For some reason, the “Islamists” of Lerik believe that it is the
Sunnis, and especially the Wahhabis, who are to blame for all
our misfortunes, because they are a “black stain” in the history
of Islam. [passage omitted: those who damage Islamic unity are
considered pagans]
Boycott of US goods
“The anti-American war in the southern regions has already begun,
albeit at the moment only in the form of a boycott of American goods.
Here people do not buy products and other goods imported from the
States. The young people in Lerik are awaiting the Imam Mehdi (the
12th Imam, whom the Shi’ites believe to be their saviour). But this –
this “awaiting” – is based on Iran’s policy. It is only there that
they know when and how it will happen. “If they tell us that our
president is a despot, then we shall rise against him,” says Ali,
21, who believes that personal opinions are unimportant – the main
thing is the fatwah of the mojahedin.
A resume of the conversations we had with a separate section of the
people of Lerik amounts to the following: “Our time will soon come.
And then there will be days of hell for those non-believers who do
not follow the canons of Islam.”
Anti-Shi’ite book circulated
One could have paid no particular attention to the views of certain
people in Lerik, but everything the correspondent saw in this region
speaks of the beginning of a major plan with which the Zerkalo
newspaper has already acquainted its readers. Thus, yesterday the
APA agency published a report in its bulletins which says that in the
northern regions of Azerbaijan copies of a book by anonymous authors
entitled “How I came under oppression” are being distributed. The book
is directed against the Shi’ites. In it a number of serious indignities
are used. “We have information that this book was written by members of
certain radical groups of the Abu-Bakr mosque [in Baku]. Every believer
who has received this book is obliged to copy it and re-distribute
it. The book is a response to the existing anti-Sunni direction of
the three-volume work ‘How I started to believe’,” the source told APA.
We will note that some time ago al-Tijani’s book “How I started to
believe” was distributed in the northern regions. It was reported that
it was published in Iran. The book which was sold in front of the holy
place Khizir-Zinda in Siyazan District, and was later confiscated by
members of the law-enforcement bodies. Now in the northern regions
the third volume of al-Tijani’s book is being distributed underground.
In the northern regions of Azerbaijan religious fundamentalism,
aimed against Shi’ism, is manifest in acute forms. Clearly, the
special services of our northern neighbour are by no means averse to
exacerbating the situation in the regions bordering on Azerbaijan.
For example, in Qusar, Quba, Xacmaz, Siyazan and Balakan districts
radically minded religious organizations are being created, whose
activity is directed against the Shi’ites. Wahhabi and other extremist
organizations of a religious hue which are being created there are
virtually a pillar of Russia’s “sinister” designs against our country.
Extremist threats in north and south
In a word, Russia from the north and Iran from the south are slowly but
surely closing the ring around Azerbaijan. Zerkalo has already more
than once warned the public about the threat of the strengthening
positions of Wahhabism in the northern regions of the country and
the Iranization of the southern regions. Both currents have fairly
strong roots in the northern and central regions of Azerbaijan,
and also in Baku. In the absence of democracy and normal laws which
provide freedom of conscience and give a full guarantee to believers,
nobody should be surprised at such a phenomenon.
Interested circles are striving to shape in the public conscience
the assumption that various radical groups pose a serious threat of
instability in Azerbaijan. Clearly, they are doing this to divert
the attention of the population from the democratic and economic
processes. According to some reports, in the event of political
cataclysms in our country, the radically minded religious organizations
in the northern parts of Azerbaijan may be put on combat readiness.
Without doubt, the Iranian special services are taking advantage of
this to take control of those regions where the Shi’ite Muslims are
in the majority. We said earlier that the southern regions are being
turned into a proving ground for the Iranian special services; but
similar processes are occurring also in Abseron, Naxcivan and other
parts of the country. In other words, the way is being prepared for
an artificial confrontation between separate regions of Azerbaijan
under the camouflage of religious differences. Furthermore, according
to some media reports, if Baku joins the anti-Iranian coalition at
another “convenient moment” for themselves, some groups might start
to carry out terrorist acts in the capital. This could lead to the
beginning of a “war of the regions” in Azerbaijan, a war between the
north and south, which could lead to the dismemberment of the country.
In other words, it is clearly the feeble activity of the state
committee for work with religious structures and the Board of
Muslims of the Caucasus [BMC] which has brought all this about. At
the present moment it is only intelligent religious figures, who
are constantly subjected to persecution from the BMC, together with
the state structures, who are capable of preventing undesirable
processes. Educational work among the religiously minded electorate
might quench the passions of the foreign special services.
I would like to bring to the notice of the executive powers of the
southern and northern regions that allegiance to the state does
not just mean prostrating oneself to the ground but also the proper
management of the processes in one’s own “ancestral lands”.

Kiro Manoyan: Karabakh conflict settlement intention optimistic but not realistic
11.07.2006 15:34
Yerkir
YEREVAN (YERKIR) – Kiro Manoyan, the director of the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation Bureau’s Political Affairs and Hay Dat Office,
said on Tuesday that the intention to settle the Karabakh conflict
in 2006 is very optimistic but unrealistic.
Speaking at a round table discussion with National Assembly member
Hmayak Haovhannisian, Manoyan said that it is unrealistic due to the
Azerbaijani president’s destructive position.
“The optimism was based on a sole fact that there will be no elections
in Armenia or Azerbaijan in 2006,” Manoyan said.
Hovhannisian, in turn, said that Azerbaijan pursues an aggressive
policy and is not ready for any concession.
Manoyan also mentioned it was not right to say the negations are
deadlocked since Azerbaijan had no intention from the very beginning
to settle the conflict based on mutual compromise. He also added
that the only positive provision in the latest statement by the OSCE
Minsk group co-chairs is the inclusion of a provision that gives the
Karabakh people a right to self-determination.
Hovhannisian noted that the Karabakh negotiations have been
favorable for Armenia after 1998 because there was no mentioning of
a self-determination referendum in proposals made before 1998.
Manoyan said Stepanakert has never formulated a proper position
towards the liberated territories.
“The ARF position is that especially today that Nagorno Karabakh is
working on a constitution, Karabakh should declare its dominance
on those territories, ” Manoyan said. “However, both Yerevan and
Stepanakert view those territories as part of compromise, something
we don’t agree with.”
Manoyan said Karabakh’s agreement to hold a referendum is a compromise
in itself since it had conducted one years ago.
Manoyan also called the OSCE Minsk Group’s US co-chair’s statement an
inappropriate statement made by a newcomer because he (the co-chair)
revealed the proposals part-by-part while the official joint statement
was made only a week later.

USA not interested in national movement in Iranian Azerbaijan – Baku paper
Zerkalo, Baku
10 Jun 06
The Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo has said that Washington is not
interested in supporting the national movement of Iranian Azeris.
This is proved by the recent arrest of Iranian dissident Mahmudali
Cohraqanli in Turkey and the West’s cold attitude to Azeri protests
in Iran, and therefore, it is naive to expect support from
Washington, it said. US policy has led to the radicalization of
ethnic Azeris in Iran, which means that they can start a jihad
against the United States and resort to acts of terror, Zerkalo said.
The following is an excerpt from report by Azerbaijani newspaper
Zerkalo on 10 June headlined Mahmud Cohraqanli has been arrested” and
subheaded ” Washington has either started its own well-planned game
or has simply surrendered southern Azerbaijan to the Persian regime”.
Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The Turkish authorities yesterday arrested the leader of the National
Revival Movement of Southern Azerbaijan, Mahmudali Cohraqanli. One of
the best-known enemies of the Iranian regime was visiting Istanbul
where he arrived from the USA on 5 June.
[Passage omitted: Cohraqanli was arrested while giving an interview
to the Turkish newspaper Turkiye]
US pragmatism
Speaking about the attitude of the West and above all, the USA to
what is going in Iran, the well-known dissident said that Washington
is making mistakes by staking on other ethnic groups. “To all
appearances, the White House is not interested in the strengthening
of the Turkic world,” he said.
It is hard to disagree with Cohraqanli’s statement. The West really
showed a cold attitude towards the mass protests of Iranian
Azerbaijanis. But the USA has its own reasons for this. And to be
honest, so does Turkey. There is no need for emotions in big-time
politics and it cannot be based on slogans of false patriots.
Cohraqanli has spent more than a year trying to enlist US support for
southern Azerbaijan’s struggle against the Tehran regime, but all in
vain.
On the one hand, the USA should rely on the Azerbaijanis to overthrow
the mullah regime because it is biggest ethnic group in Iran.
[Passage omitted: background details of Iranian events]
But the White House is not taking this as a basis. In any case, the
Unites States is not interested in the existence of another powerful
independent Turkic state, which could be a united Azerbaijan. Uncle
Sam always puts even the interests of its eternal ally Turkey, which
plays a major role in world politics, on the back burner, not to
mention those of Azerbaijan.
If before Washington saw Turkey as a sort of counter-balance first to
the USSR and then to Russia, now that the Kremlin has less levers of
pressure, the USA does not need Turkey so desperately. Nor is the USA
interested in Turkey’s strengthening, which will inevitably happen if
Turks of northern and southern Azerbaijan unite. In a word, US
pragmatism is obvious: it is much better to return some puppet heir
to the shah’s throne than to get a powerful Turkic state supported by
Turkey.
The arrest of Mahmudali Cohraqanli, which was certainly made with the
approval of the US government, is a logical part of this plan. The
mass disturbances of ethnic Azerbaijanis continued in Iran for almost
one month and the Western media kept silent about them. Then we
realized that it is naive to expect support from Washington. Poor
political experts, who shouted from the rooftops about the beginning
of a revolution in Iran, have only just realized that activists from
southern Azerbaijan [northern Iran] have backed themselves into a
tight corner. It is time to understand that a revolution cannot
happen spontaneously.
Revolution or what?
A revolution is not an emotion, but a political act, if you want. The
end and ways of achieving it are more important in politics. “Our
revolutionaries” had neither, not did they have any guarantees of
support from the great powers. It was not even clear who led the
developments in southern Azerbaijan or if anyone led them at all.
As for the Americans, they can also make a serious mistake. Refusing
to support the democratic movement in Azerbaijan, Washington’s
analysts got what they deserved – a major part of the protest
electorate became disappointed in Western values and took a
pro-Islamic position. What about southern Azerbaijan? The situation
there is absolutely different. Suffice it to say that four of the
seven mujtahids are ethnic Azerbaijanis. Moreover, ethnic
Azerbaijanis are regarded as the most conservative Islamists in Iran.
Overall, US policy has led to the radicalization of ethnic
Azerbaijanis in Iran. The White House does not probably realize that
Iran is not Iraq and that Iranian Azerbaijanis are not residents of
Kirkuk [ethnic Turkomans of Iraq]. It cannot be ruled out that the
southern Azerbaijanis will get angry with US policy and vent their
fury on the USA.
Seizing the initiative in the Islamic movement from the Persians,
southern Azerbaijanis may put on a “martyr’s belt” and start a jihad
against “infidels”. And the USA might become the main target. That’s
to say by manipulating with democratic values in its own interests,
the USA is forcing Azerbaijanis to speak to Uncle Sam in the language
of terror.
In this connection, we should note that it is Azerbaijanis who will
not allow the heir to the Iranian shah’s throne to return to Iran
where our compatriots were disdainfully called “Turkish donkeys”.
Probably, the authors of this nickname have forgotten that there are
about 12-15m Azerbaijanis in southern Azerbaijan while there are
about eight million of them in Tehran. The overall number of
Azerbaijanis in Iran is about 35-40 million. This is a powerful force
that is able to oppose any foreign enemy. Incidentally, Iran was run
by Azerbaijanis until 1936.
As for Cohraqanli’s arrest, we would assume that he is unlikely be
handed over to the Iranian authorities. But this is a US hint that
Washington is carefully following developments in Iran and will not
allow any arbitrary development of events, and Ankara, as well as
Baku, should act under its wise leadership. Why Baku? Because after
Turkey, the dissident was going to visit Azerbaijan.
There is another version that seems quite implausible. It cannot be
ruled that the White House is using Cohraqanli’s arrest to advertise
him, and when necessary, to present him as the leader of the national
liberation movement of southern Azerbaijan.