Montenegro: The Independence Referendum’s Regional Repercussions

MONTENEGRO: THE INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM’S REGIONAL REPERCUSSIONS
Stratfor
May 19 2006
Summary
Montenegro holds its independence referendum May 21. The result,
which will give the European Union a growing headache, will have
widespread repercussions. And the impact will resonate more strongly
the further from Montenegro one goes.
Analysis
Montenegro will finally vote on its referendum for independence from
Serbia on May 21. Serbia and Montenegro is the last component of the
five provinces once comprising Yugoslavia, though Montenegro has acted
as a de facto independent entity since 1997. Its tiny population of
612,000 — made up of a mix religions and ethnicities with no one
group forming a majority — is dwarfed by Serbia’s 11 million. A vote
for independence would mean that Serbia and Montenegro would exist
separately for the first time since 1918.
With tensions in Montenegro rising, the population is almost evenly
split on how it will vote. Recent polls show that from 46 percent
to 49 percent of voters support independence while 40 percent to 45
percent oppose independence.
The split has led to outbreaks of violence, though only within
Montenegro. Fights have broken out at rallies for both sides. For
example, hundreds of police were deployed to a May 15 rally in the
central town of Niksic where pro-independence activists wearing
shirts emblazoned with the word “da,” Serbo-Croatian for “yes,”
were attacked by pro-unionists.
The final decision on independence, however, belongs not exactly to
Montenegrins, but to the European Union, the power that exercises de
facto control over Montenegro’s future after intervening repeatedly in
the past to prevent the Balkan republic from seceding. The European
Union set a rule that Montenegro can have its vote of independence,
but that a simple majority is insufficient, and a pro-independence vote
must have above 55 percent. This condition has been blasted repeatedly
by pro-independence forces, which have asked what the European Union
will decide if the vote falls somewhere between 50-55 percent. Such
a result is precisely what is likely to happen, meaning Montenegro
will remain politically polarized in the post-referendum period —
and the problem of what to do will be left squarely in the European
Union’s lap.
A clear vote for independence means Montenegro will become an
EU protectorate on a possible route to EU membership. A vote
against independence or a vote failing to hit 55 percent will mean
Montenegro will become an EU protectorate existing under a painful
legal fiction. Though this status might include a possible route to
EU membership, Montenegro would still officially be linked to Serbia.
Either way, EU intervention has ensured Montenegro will continue to
be an EU problem.
The most obvious beneficiary of Montenegrin independence is Kosovo,
Serbia’s other secessionist region. Kosovo is already in talks — also
with the European Union — to win its own independence referendum. The
European Union, however, is stalling on a final decision, just like
it did with Montenegro. But while Montenegro’s vote is in question,
Kosovo’s is not. As the province’s population is 90 percent Albanian
Muslim, independence there is a certainty, with only the specific
terms left to be worked out. Kosovo’s identity, unlike Montenegro,
is thus not torn over the issue.
If Montenegro gains independence, loud cries for secession can be
anticipated as far away as the Caucasus, with the disputed territories
of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and South Ossetia being the most likely
to initiate this clamor. All broke away from their parent states —
Azerbaijan in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia for the other
two — in the early days of the post-Soviet period, and all three
have enjoyed de facto independence for over a decade. Bear in mind
that all three already claim independence; at issue is whether they
will seek to use international institutions to formalize this claim.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the most likely to move in this direction, in
that it holds easily defensible mountainous territory affording more
direct access to its most important ally, Armenia, than to its foe,
Azerbaijan. The second-most-likely territory to follow this path
is Abkhazia, which has soundly defeated the Georgian military on
multiple occasions. Abkhazia’s reputation for fielding fierce and
competent fighters is as strong as the Georgian military’s reputation
for ineffectiveness.
South Ossetia, however, is unlikely to prove as successful. It lacks
Nagorno-Karabakh’s geography and the martial skills of Abkhazia. Its
biggest advantage used to be the assistance it could count on from
its cousins in North Ossetia, who formerly could be expected to swarm
across the border to help in the event of Georgian-South Ossetian
hostilities. But since the atrocity at Beslan, the North Ossetians are
more concerned with protecting their own at home than with helping
relatives abroad fight a secessionist struggle. Only Russia could
help South Ossetia win its struggle, but such aid could well cost
Russia dearly in its own international relations.
Other secessionist regions and groups potentially seeking to take
advantage of any Montenegrin precedent include the Transdniestria
region of Moldova and the Bosnian Serbs or the Albanians of
Macedonia, but none of these three are likely to get much traction
from Montenegro’s potential split. Unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, Transdniestria is sandwiched between Moldova,
which wants the territory back, and Ukraine, which wants Moldova to
get the territory back. Both states bear hostility to Russia, the
one state which indirectly backs Transdniestria’s independence drive.
Without at least tacit approval from Ukraine, Transdniestria’s days
as a quasi-state are numbered.
The Serbs of Bosnia and Albanians of Macedonia face even more
obstacles. Both regions have European forces stationed on their
territory, specifically tasked with preventing any secessionist efforts
from manifesting. Moreover, Serbia, the entity most likely to lend
the Bosnian Serbs a hand, is emotionally, financially and militarily
exhausted — and certainly does not want to risk another military
confrontation with NATO, the power enforcing the peace in Bosnia.
for maps check:
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Cyprus’ Elections

CYPRUS’ ELECTIONS
Author: Alexandra Silver
Council on Foreign Relations, New York
May 19 2006
Introduction
Though a small island, Cyprus’ problems radiate far beyond its
shores. An independent nation since 1960, after years of British
colonial rule, Cyprus has been divided by a “green line” separating
the Turkish Cypriot north and the Greek Cypriot south since 1974. The
parliamentary elections being held on the part of the island controlled
by ethnic Greek Cypriots on May 21 are the first since the failed 2004
referendum on the Annan plan for reunification, and also the first
since Cyprus’ accession to the European Union that same year. Notable
this time around is the fact that Turkish Cypriots have registered
to vote, and a Turkish Cypriot is running for office. The numbers
are small but symbolic.
What is Cyprus’ current status?
Despite the fact that the Cyprus conflict has yet to be resolved,
Cyprus became a member of the European Union in 2004. The island
remains divided between the Greek Cypriot majority in the south
and the Turkish Cypriot minority in the north; a 2004 referendum on
Kofi Annan’s proposal to reunify the territory was voted down. A UN
peacekeeping force, first deployed in 1964, remains stationed there.
The Republic of Cyprus refers de facto to the southern part of the
island, though it was meant to encompass all of it. The Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus is not recognized by any country except
Turkey.
Of the eighty seats in the Cypriot House of Representatives, 30 percent
are reserved for Turkish Cypriots. But these seats-along with the vice
president’s office, which is also reserved for a Turkish Cypriot-have
been vacant since the Turkish Cypriot began a boycott of the government
in 1963.
What is the significance of these elections?
The registration of 270 Turkish Cypriot voters is notable, as is the
candidacy of a Turkish Cypriot, the poet and activist Neshe Yashin.
Their participation, however, has nothing to do with the vacated
seats; Yashin is running for one of the fifty-six seats supposedly
reserved for Greek Cypriots. Joseph doubts that she’ll win, since
she’s running with a small party, the United Democrats (EDI).
Precedent-setting aside, the elections to fill the fifty-six
seats, plus the eight observer seats reserved for the Armenian,
Maronite, and Latin-meaning Roman Catholic-religious minorities,
are not necessarily going to result in major changes. Elias Hazou,
a journalist for the Cyprus Mail, writes bluntly, “At the end of the
day, these are parliamentary elections and, as we all know, the House
in Cyprus does not power things, it’s just there to endorse (or not)
government policy.”
Some experts say these elections are more a vote of a poll on President
Tassos Papadopoulos-who won a five year term by a narrow margin in
2003-and his views on reunification. Papadopoulos has stated that
these elections will prove that Cypriots support his opposition to
the Annan plan and his hard-line stance on Turkey.
What are the main issues?
These are the first elections since the 2004 referendum on the Annan
plan for reunification, which Greek Cypriots voted down and Turkish
Cypriots voted for. Robert I. Rotberg, director of the Belfer Center’s
Program on Intrastate Conflict and Conflict Resolution at Harvard,
says reunification may not be the main issue in these elections,
but it is a constant one in Cyprus.
Joseph Joseph, associate professor in the department of Social and
Political Sciences at the University of Cyprus, says reunification,
and Papadopoulos’ opposition to the Annan plan, is not the central
issue in these elections. The true determining factors, Joseph says,
are strong party loyalties and personalities. On such a small island,
where “everybody knows everybody,” people often vote according to
personal connections.
Other issues might play a smaller role. Even though the economy is
doing well, Joseph says in any election, “the economic aspect is always
on the agenda.” There may not be many controversial issues at stake,
but voter turn out is likely to be high: Voting is mandatory in the
country, though not strictly enforced.
Why have some Turkish Cypriots registered to vote in this election?
This year 270 Turkish Cypriots living in the southern, Greek-Cypriot
dominated part of the island have registered to vote for the
fifty-six House seats. The government recently passed a law allowing
them to vote after the European Court of Human Rights ruling on the
matter. Previously, Turkish Cypriots were only allowed to vote for
the seats reserved for them. Since the Turkish Cypriot seats have been
vacant for years, Turkish Cypriots have not been voting. Those living
in the north are still not allowed to vote, but a case challenging
this is pending.
Rotberg suggests that Greek Cypriots would prefer that all Turkish
Cypriots vote, since the Republic of Cyprus would then be seen as
being in control of the entire island. The 270 Turkish Cypriots likely
registered, Rotberg says, because of the EU passports and accompanying
travel documents such citizenship allows.
What are the main parties?
Over 480 candidates are running for the House seats. The communist
Progressive Party of the Working People (AKEL) and the rightist
Democratic Rally (DISY) have the most support. The center-right
Democratic Party (DIKO)-President Papadopoulos’ party-follows behind
these, but it is expected to gain seats. Other parties include the
socialist Movement of Social Democrats (EDEK) and the European Party
(EvroKo). Some candidates are running as independents, including
Costas Kyriacou, a farmer known as “Utopos,” who wants to create a
Platonic republic based on the principles of free love, matriarchy,
and symmetry.
What are the Turkish and Greek positions regarding this election?
Both Turkey and Greece have clear interests in the island, but
neither nation is directly involved in the elections. Since Turkey
doesn’t recognize the Cypriot government-it only recognizes the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus-it has no official stance on
the elections. As for Greece, Rotberg explains it doesn’t want to
be perceived as a colonial power, so the country “tries not to play
too big a role.” Elaine Papoulias, director of the Harvard’s Kokkalis
Program on Southeastern and East-Central Europe, says that Greek policy
has undergone several changes recently, noting that the Greeks have
developed a “much more hands-off approach” when it comes to Cyprus.
How will these elections affect Turkey’s chances with the EU?
The Cypriot elections do not directly affect Turkey’s potential
membership in the EU, but Cyprus itself is an issue; reunification
would clear a significant obstacle on Turkey’s path to join the
organization. But if the party of Papadopoulos garners more support,
as polls suggest it will, that may make reunification less likely. As
Steven Cook, CFR’s Douglas Dillon Fellow, says, “Papadopoulos’
hard-line stance is creating a difficult situation for Turkey.” Most
experts don’t expect a strengthened Papadopoulos to make much
progress on the issue of reunification, and the division of Cyprus
will subsequently remain a problem for Turkey’s accession to the EU.
Joseph says any progress on reunification is more likely to come from
external forces than the Cypriot government itself.

Surprising Entries Advance In Eurovision Song Contest

SURPRISING ENTRIES ADVANCE IN EUROVISION SONG CONTEST
Christine Pirovolakis, dpa
Deutsche Presse-Agentur
May 18, 2006 Thursday 11:11 PM EST
Amid a cluster of ancient Greek gods, Spartan warriors and mythical
creatures, musicians from 23 countries battled it out for a place in
Saturday’s main Eurovision 2006 Song Contest in Athens.
Competing for 10 places for the main event in the former Olympic city,
Russia, Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Lithuania, Finland, Ukraine,
Ireland, Sweden, Turkey and Armenia made the cut after a public text
and telephone vote.
Ranging from pop to ethnic music to rock, the winning acts for the
semi-finals included a wide assortment of genres, including Belfast-
born singer Brain Kennedy’s soft, heartfelt ballad with soaring vocals
and a simple arrangement.
Russia’s Dima Bilan performed a modern pop song with a serious edge,
while Sweden’s Carola’s Invincible was an anthemic production that
started slow and built to a thumping chorus.
Again this year, Eurovision is producing its fair share of controversy
and extreme behaviour.
Among the more unusual and surprising bands to advance to the finals
were controversial Finnish heavy metal band Lordi, whose act features
gruesome masks, armour and jets of flame.
“We are so satisfied – imagine a band that look’s like us can reach
the finals in a song festival like this,” said Lordi’s lead singer
during a press conference.
Other unexpected winners also included Lithuania’s Lt United with
their title We are the winners, as well as Turkey and Armenia, the
latter competing for the first time in Eurovision.
Hosts Greece, nine top-scoring nations from last year’s contest and
four major countries have automatic berths in the final: Switzerland,
Moldova, Israel, Latvia, Norway, Spain, Malta, Germany, Denmark,
Romania, United Kingdom, France, Croatia and Greece.
France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom qualify automatically
as the four most populous countries in the event.
Eager to entertain the more than 10,000 fans in the Olympic Basketball
stadium in Athens and the more than 100 million people who tuned in to
the event from 40 countries, dancers dressed-up as Zeus and Aphrodite,
the Greek goddess of love, took to the stage singing past Eurovision
hits Volare and Diva.
The show’s choreographer, Fokas Evagelinos, said he wanted to inject
a dose of humour while also showcasing Greek culture in the event.
Still basking in the glory of the 2004 Olympics, when they impressed
audiences by bringing the history and authenticity of the event back
to its homeland, organizers have spared no expense for Eurovision.
Athens won the right to host the event after Helena Paparizou triumphed
last year in Kiev with her song My Number One.
This year, Greece’s ancient capital and its 5 million people have
embraced the contest with even greater enthusiasm than the Olympic
Games. With the necessary infrastructure from stadiums to transport
already in place, Athenians are confident of Eurovision success.
Anna Vissi will be battling it out to score yet another win for Greece
with Everything, a ballsy, heartfelt rock ballad about the breakup
of a relationship.
Despite being described as a showcase of kitsch, Eurovision is one
of the most watched television programmes in the world, and the
competition has served as a springboard for such international stars
as Abba and Celine Dion.

Tanks Rolling North: Withdrawal Of Troops From Georgia: ScandalsCont

TANKS ROLLING NORTH: WITHDRAWAL OF TROOPS FROM GEORGIA: SCANDALS CONTINUE
Albert Yeremjan, Mikhail Moshkin
Source: Gazeta, May 16, 2006
Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
May 19, 2006 Friday
Twenty-One Echelon With Military Hardware, Armaments And Material
Will Leave The Russian Base In Akhalkalaki (Georgia) Before October;
An update on the withdrawal from Georgia.
Russia is pulling out. The accords signed in Sochi this March, give
Russia until 2008, to withdraw from Georgia completely. The matter
concerns Russian military bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki.
It took the military two days to load all armored vehicles of
the 62nd Base (Akhalkalaki) on flatcars at Tsalka station in East
Georgia. The process began on Saturday. Carrying seven T-72 tanks,
eight armored battle vehicles, two armored personnel carriers, and
four communications vehicles, the echelon departed for Russia via
Azerbaijan, yesterday.
“Running echelons across Azerbaijan will simplify matters, because it
will do away with the necessity to unload the military hardware from
flatcars and load it again to a different transport means,” Russian
Army Group in the Caucasus Second-in-Command Vladimir Kuparadze told
this correspondent. “The military hardware loaded in Tsalka will ride
the flatcars right to the destination in Russia.” Kuparadze did not
say what units of the Russian army were under orders to receive and
store the military hardware. Tactical and auxiliary teams made it to
Tsalka last week.
Departure of the second echelon is scheduled for May 23.
Twenty-one echelon with military hardware, armaments, and material
of the Akhalkalaki base will leave Tsalka before October, 2006.
The locals, mostly Armenians, are vexed to see the Russians pull out.
It is hardly surprising because the Russian base provided them with
jobs. Special forces of the Georgian Interior Ministry were moved to
Akhalkalaki on the night of May 13, to deal with all and any potential
disturbances. Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili had said not long
before that Russia was orchestrating “provocations” in Akhalkalaki
“to be able to claim that it was the indigenous population that was
interfering with the withdrawal.”
Along with everything else, official Tbilisi accuses Moscow of
dereliction of its commitments with regard to the Gudauta base on the
territory of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia. The Georgians
demand international monitoring while Moscow replies that the base
is closed. The NATO delegation on a visit to Georgia last week was
not permitted to see the base. NATO representatives said that had had
Russia’s consent to a visit the base but the permit was annulled at
the last moment.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Robot To Continue Work On Seabed To Detect Flight Recorders

ROBOT TO CONTINUE WORK ON SEABED TO DETECT FLIGHT RECORDERS
by: Dmitri Nezdorovin
ITAR-TASS News Agency
May 19, 2006 Friday 12:29 AM EST
The weather conditions allowed to continue the operation at the A-320
crash site on Thursday to find and raise the flight recorders from
the seabed.
The deep-water robot sank at 19:30 Moscow time on Thursday and ended
the work at 04:00 on Friday, a source at the operational headquarters
told Itar-Tass.
Fragments, the colour and form of which resemble the recorders, are
found at the seabed, and each of the objects is examined. The robot
has to remove obstructions. Some of the fragments are in the silt,
and it complicates the work, the source said.
The team operating the robot had a short rest on Friday morning,
and if the weather allows, the work will resume soon.
According to the earlier reports, the recorders are at the depth of
496 metres, and the distance between them is about five metres.
The A-320 of Armenia’s Armavia airline crashed into the sea on the
night to May 3 when attempting to land at Sochi’s airport. All the
113 people who were aboard died.

EBRD To Issue Armenia’s Shen $5-$6 Mln Loan To Build Drywall Plant

EBRD TO ISSUE ARMENIA’S SHEN $5-$6 MLN LOAN TO BUILD DRYWALL PLANT
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
May 19, 2006 Friday 2:14 PM MSK
The Yerevan-based Shen Concern, Armenia’s largest producer of
construction materials, plans to receive a $5-$6 million loan from the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), which owns a
blocking stake in the company, for the construction of a drywall plant.
This project will be considered at an EBRD shareholder’s meeting in
London at the end of June, Shen president Samvel Beglarian said.
The project would then be discussed at the Shen annual shareholders
meeting in Yerevan on July 9.
At present, drywall is not produced in Armenia and is imported from
Iran and partially from Russia. Armenia annually imports about 1
million-1.5 million square meters of drywall for a total of $5 million,
Shen said.
To set up production, Shen intends to begin developing a gypsum field
in Armenia. Beglarian expects the EBRD funds will be sufficient for
the development of the field and the construction of the plant.
Shen saw its sales grow a tentative 20%-25%, or by $300,000-$400,000,
in 2005, he said.
Shen Concern was set up in 1995. The EBRD has a 36% stake in the
concern, while the remaining shares are distributed among various
residents of Armenia.

About 500 Hardware Pieces To Be Withdrawn From Russian Military Base

ABOUT 500 HARDWARE PIECES TO BE WITHDRAWN FROM RUSSIAN MILITARY BASES IN GEORGIA IN 2006
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
May 19, 2006 Friday
Over 500 hardware pieces and in excess of 2,000 tonnes of materiel
and ammunition will be withdrawn to Russia from its military bases
in Georgia in 2006, Army General Alexander Baranov, commander of
the North Caucasus Military District, said in an interview with the
Krasnaya Zvezda daily, published on Friday.
“If Georgia observes all its commitments as outlined in the agreements
signed, we will guarantee the withdrawal in the timeframes set. We
must implement the agreements reached by the heads of states in a
civilized manner, and we are ready for that,” he said.
Compliant with the agreements reached a quota has been granted for
400 railway cars to carry Russian weapons and materiel from Georgia
into Azerbaijan, Baranov noted.
He added that part of the equipment will be handed over to the 102nd
military base in Armenia to increase its combat potential. “The first
column of tracked and wheeled vehicles will march there soon,” he said.
In response to questions, he said that the construction of
infrastructure for two mountaineer brigades in Dagestan and
Karachayevo- Cherkessia should be completed in the first half of 2007.
“The deployment of these brigades is an important military and
political objective of the country, because now we have to bring
forces to the republics from other regions of the country when this
is necessary. But soon we will no longer have to do so. Moreover,
the mobile mountaineer brigades will be able to exercise missions
assigned not only inside the responsibility zone, but also wherever
this might be needed,” he said.
Baranov added that the selection of commissioned and non- commissioned
officers for the brigades will start in 2007. “I can reassure you
that the brigades will be manned with best trained servicemen, with
mountain climbing qualifications, and, which is even more important,
most advanced weapons,” he said.

IMF Approves 3rd Tranche Of PRGF Loan For Armenia

IMF APPROVES 3RD TRANCHE OF PRGF LOAN FOR ARMENIA
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS Business and Financial Newswire
May 19, 2006 Friday
The executive board of the International Monetary Fund approved the
third tranche this week of a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility
(PRGF) for Armenia worth 3.28 million SDR ($4.9 million), the IMF
representation in Yerevan said in a press release.
The IMF will have provided Armenia with 9.84 million SDR (about $14.7
million) under the PRGF program once it provides the second and third
tranches, the release says.
The IMF implements the PRGF program in low-income countries to
stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty. The loans are provided
for 10 years at an annual 0.5% with a grace period of five and a
half years.

Genocide Armenien : Rouquet (PS) Denonce “Une Parodie De Democratie”

GENOCIDE ARMENIEN : ROUQUET (PS) DENONCE “UNE PARODIE DE DEMOCRATIE”
Agence France Presse
19 mai 2006 vendredi 5:02 PM GMT
Rene Rouquet, depute-maire (PS) d’Alfortville (Val-de-Marne), a denonce
vendredi “la lourde responsabilite du gouvernement” dans la “parodie
de democratie” a laquelle a abouti l’examen avorte de la proposition
de loi PS visant a reprimer la negation du genocide armenien.
“Les obstructions, les manipulations et les pressions de ces jours
derniers pour repousser l’examen du texte ont connu leur apogee
durant” la seance de jeudi a l’Assemblee, qui a ete levee avant la
fin du debat et le vote, ecrit M. Rouquet dans un communique.
M. Rouquet etait l’un des orateurs du groupe socialiste qui devait
s’exprimer a l’occasion du debat.
Le gouvernement “porte une lourde responsabilite dans ce qu’il convient
d’appeler une parodie de democratie, car il est inadmissible que
l’Etat francais ait cede de la sorte aux basses pressions commerciales
de la Turquie”, poursuit le depute, en rappelant l’intervention du
ministre des Affaires etrangères Philippe Douste-Blazy qui avait juge
la proposition “inamicale” a l’egard de la Turquie.
“Cette course de lenteur a laquelle vient de se livrer l’Assemblee
nationale est indigne (…) d’un tel sujet”, ajoute M. Rouquet.
–Boundary_(ID_4BNWiaqimmo2hLVTj0ceEA)–

Debats Parlementaires En France Sur Le Genocide Armenien: ErevanPrud

DEBATS PARLEMENTAIRES EN FRANCE SUR LE GENOCIDE ARMENIEN: EREVAN PRUDENT
Agence France Presse
19 mai 2006 vendredi
Les autorites d’Erevan se sont montrees prudentes dans leur reaction
vendredi au report d’un vote a l’Assemblee nationale francaise sur
une proposition de loi visant a penaliser la negation du genocide
armenien de 1915.
“Nous avions salue le fait que cette question soit placee a l’ordre
du jour mais nous considerons qu’il s’agit d’une question interne du
Parlement francais”, a declare a l’AFP un porte-parole du ministère
armenien des Affaires etrangères, Vladimir Karapetian.
Un vote prevu jeudi a l’Assemblee nationale francaise sur une
proposition de loi visant a penaliser la negation du genocide armenien
de 1915 et qui divise la classe politique francaise, a ete reporte
sine die après un debut de debat houleux.
La Turquie, qui nie avec vigueur tout genocide, a aussitôt encourage
les deputes francais a abandonner pour de bon l’examen du projet,
qui a accru les tensions entre Paris et Ankara.
Les analystes armeniens estiment pour leur part que l’Assemblee
nationale marque simplement une pause face a ces tensions et que la
proposition sera votee cet automne.
“Ce serait un pas en arrière si le Parlement votait contre la
proposition. Cela porterait un prejudice moral a la France en tant
que porteur des valeurs de la democratie”, a declare le politologue
et depute armenien Amaïak Ovannissian.
“Le report de la question ne changera pas la position de la France
qui a deja reconnu le genocide armenien de 1915. Le Parlement a deja
montre qu’il avait une attitude positive pour le règlement de cette
question”, a declare de son côte l’historien Babken Aroutiounian.
–Boundary_(ID_pJskzii/2eB/IIm6+pWF 4g)–