Armenia-China Relations: Yerevan’s Imperatives and Regional Constraints

Special Eurasia
Mar 17 2026

Armenia-China Relations: Yerevan’s Imperatives and Regional Constraints

Assessment

The strategic partnership between China and Armenia, formalised in 2025, supports Yerevan’s effort to diversify its foreign policy, reduce reliance on Russia, secure broader international backing for the regional peace process with Azerbaijan, and attract foreign investment.

If regional stability endures and Yerevan and Baku solidify their peace dialogue, Beijing is likely to expand financial engagement and cultural cooperation in Armenia, potentially integrating elements of Armenian infrastructure into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

China’s expanding economic presence in Armenia is likely to attract increased attention from Russia, the European Union, and the United States, introducing an additional external stakeholder into the evolving geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus.

Intelligence Requirements (IRs)

  1. What are Yerevan’s imperatives and constraints in its bilateral relations with Beijing?
  2. Could Armenia develop into a commercially viable market for the People’s Republic of China?
  3. How might Russia and Western actors respond to a growing Chinese presence in Armenia?

 Context

Armenia and China have entered a new era of cooperation with the official inception of a strategic partnership in August 2025. Announced in Tianjin, the agreement aims to expand trade, investment, and technological cooperation.

In the economic context, integrating Chinese agricultural technologies into the Armenian context is a vital pathway for this economic modernisation. Armenia is looking to modernise its agricultural sector by encouraging Chinese companies to invest in local agricultural technology and processing, which fits with its larger development goals. The collaboration emphasises burgeoning industries, including infrastructure and renewable energy, fields in which Beijing’s proficiency is expected to resolve significant impediments to connectivity.

In the initial six months of 2025, the bilateral trade volume amounted to $1.2 billion, showing a 15% reduction from the corresponding period in 2024. Armenian exports to China reached $288.3 million, representing a decrease of 59.6%, whereas imports amounted to nearly $646 million, indicating a rise of 2.3%.

Armenia’s strategic location within regional transportation and logistics networks is fundamental to this developing relationship. The Republic will function as a critical land hub connecting Asian and European markets, specifically through the advancement of the North-South Highway. This corridor enables multimodal transport connections that substantially align with Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By integrating the Armenian “Crossroads of Peace” initiative with the BRI, both nations intend to optimise cross-border logistical and customs operations.

This collaboration concurrently diminishes trade expenses, enhancing Armenian exports substantially and streamlining the flow of commodities and capital across the Eurasian continent, solidifying Yerevan’s crucial position in regional economic integration.

Analysis

The South Caucasus region is experiencing a period of relative stability following the Yerevan-Baku peace agreement reached in August 2025 mediated by Washington. The agreement and the US support for regional connectivity through the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) can end decades of regional conflict and open logistics and trade opportunities to Yerevan.

Armenia is actively pursuing a foreign policy strategy centred on the diversification of political, economic, and security partnerships. This approach seeks to mitigate dependence on Russia while expanding cooperation with the European Union, the United States, and additional external partners.

Yerevan’s imperatives include securing sustained international backing for the peace process with Azerbaijan and attracting foreign direct investments (FDIs) to position the country as a regional logistics and financial intermediary. Lacking substantial hydrocarbon resources comparable to Azerbaijan, Armenia aims to leverage regional stabilisation and connectivity initiatives as the TRIPP to support long-term economic transformation.

Security, diplomatic, and domestic variables are shaping the current constraints in Armenia. Foremost is the persistent uncertainty regarding the peace process with Baku, which remains a primary structural inhibitor. Escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East, specifically the emergence of a US-Israel conflict with Iran, which threatens to destabilise the Yerevan-Tehran axis and subsequently sever access to the critical Iranian market. Finally, domestic stability remains contingent upon the upcoming parliamentary elections, representing a significant internal pivot point for the nation’s strategic direction.

If the peace process progresses and political stability is maintained, Armenia could present a moderately attractive investment environment for Chinese enterprises, particularly in the logistics, infrastructure, and technology sectors. Political predictability remains a key prerequisite for expanded Chinese engagement.

Political stability serves as the foundational element for China’s escalating interest in Armenia and for the enduring nature of its domestic governance. Consequently, the forthcoming parliamentary elections in June 2026 are critical for discerning whether Armenia, under the re-affirmed leadership of Pashinyan, will persist with its foreign policy and economic strategy—marked by the diversification of political and commercial partners—or if the nation will undergo a reassessment of goals by a new administration.

Under Pashinyan’s leadership, Armenia is poised to ensure the security and stability of Chinese investments, positioning the nation as a potentially valuable and engaging market for Beijing. A change in leadership and governance in Yerevan introduces ambiguity regarding the peace agreement with Baku, the state of relations with Moscow, and Armenia’s receptiveness to Western partners and markets, all of which are likely to pose significant challenges to China’s interests.

Russia considers the South Caucasus as part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and a lebensraum (vital space) where Moscow should extend its presence to protect the nation’s core and interests. Russia has experienced considerable transformations in the region and the increasing influence of Turkey, the European Union, and the United States since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.

Although Beijing is a partner with Moscow in various sectors, the expanding presence of Chinese enterprises and China’s growing influence in Armenia directly jeopardise the Kremlin’s objectives within this strategically important region, where the Kremlin continues to seek the exertion of its political and military dominance. Hence, if Beijing were to become a new international participant in the South Caucasus, Moscow would experience a direct confrontation with its national interests and would confront Chinese foreign and economic strategy in the Caucasus, a phenomenon presently occurring in Central Asia. Considering these circumstances, it is highly probable that Russia would take measures to counteract or diminish China’s achievements in the Armenian market.

From a Western perspective, engagement with the Asian market and the BRI could present a profitable prospect and attract FDIs from global enterprises. In the geopolitical landscape, an escalation of Chinese influence in Armenia, viewed considering Beijing’s relationships with Moscow and Tehran, could jeopardise Western objectives.

Western actors are therefore likely to monitor Armenia–China cooperation closely while expanding their own diplomatic, economic, and institutional engagement with Yerevan. The European Union and the United States may prioritise investment initiatives, governance cooperation, and regulatory integration as mechanisms to maintain influence.

Rather than direct coercion, Western policy responses are more likely to emphasise conditional economic support tied to governance standards and institutional reforms. Increased alignment with Western economic and regulatory frameworks could indirectly limit the scope of Chinese strategic influence without requiring Armenia to formally disengage from Beijing.

Indicators to Monitor

  • Increased Russian diplomatic or economic pressure encouraging Armenia to maintain alignment with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and limiting the expansion of Chinese financial involvement.
  • Growth in US and EU high-level visits, economic assistance programs, and institutional cooperation aimed at strengthening Western engagement with Armenia.
  • Chinese initiatives to expand educational, cultural, and academic cooperation, including potential establishment of Confucius Institutes—to deepen long-term societal and elite-level engagement.

Against all odds, Armenia has preserved an ancient and distinctive winemaking

The Tablet, UK
Mar 19 2026
N. O’Phile 

From the vineyard

Few nations on Earth have been so fiercely contested and yet so doggedly determined to preserve their identity, despite centuries of external dominance and even genocide, than minuscule, land-locked Armenia. Christianity has been critical to the continuing proud existence of this fiercely patriotic nation in the southern Caucasus, along with its ancient language, developed specifically to translate the Bible. Armenia was the first nation to embrace Christianity in 301 as its official religion, ante-dating by almost 80 years Theodosius’ adoption of Christianity as the official religion of the Roman Empire.

Against all odds, Armenia has also preserved an ancient and distinctive winemaking tradition. Though neighbouring Georgia rightly lays claim to being the world’s oldest wine producer, Armenia boasts remains of the oldest known, 6,000-year-old winery.

The nadir in Armenia’s wine culture was the Soviet occupation in 1920, which lasted for 71 years until independence in 1991. Private enterprise was abolished and wine estates were nationalised; but whereas wine production in Georgia continued under Soviet domination, Armenian grapes were used exclusively to produce brandy. Vines that had previously produced fine wine were replaced by inferior, fast-growing, long-fruiting varieties; but 1991 restored opportunities for serious wine production, and since then Armenia’s renaissance has been aided by outside help from distinguished European vintners.

Demographically and geographically, Armenia is a small country, no bigger than Belgium, with a population of three million. But its mountainous topography – it is one of highest wine-producing countries in the world – is diverse and dramatic. Its geology is volcanic, making for mineral-rich soils, and its wide temperature variations between day and night preserve acidity and allow for long, slow ripening, leading to a complexity of aroma and intensity of flavour derived from its 400 indigenous grape varieties.

Armenian winemaking still relies on the ancient amphorae known as karas (qvevri in Georgia) buried in the ground as the wine ferments: it maintains a stable cool temperature, allows small quantities of oxygen to penetrate the porous clay, thus softening tannins and creating a pleasing softness, and reduces the need for additives and filtering by keeping the lees in natural and gentle motion.

Among Armenia’s many varieties, four stand out. The best-known and most highly prized is Areni, an ancient thick skinned hardy grape similar to Sangiovese. Voskehat, also ancient, known as the Queen of Grapes, produces aromatic, citrusy whites. Haghtanak is a rich, deeply coloured, high tannin red. Kangun, the grape used in the Soviet era for brandy, now produces highly acidic white.

Armenian wine is not yet widely available but Majestic’s Art Armenia Areni 2024 (£16.50 but £12 if part of mixed six) from vines planted in 2006 is a perfect example of how far the revival has come, with plum, cherry and delicate spice on the nose. The Wine Society’s Zulal Areni Classic 2021 (£19) is from old ungrafted vines, producing wine somewhere between Syrah and Pinot Noir. Both appreciate decanting. The Wine Society’s Keush Origins Brut (£21), a sparkling wine from 100-year-old vines in the mountainous Vayots Dzor region, is bone-dry and steely, reflecting the famed resilience of the Armenians themselves.

N.O’Phile is The Tablet’s wine writer. He is also a senior Catholic priest.


https://www.thetablet.co.uk/columnists/against-all-odds-armenia-has-preserved-an-ancient-and-distinctive-winemaking-tradition/

REVIEW: “Zabel in Exile” honors Armenian writer’s voice that outlived silence

The Daily Free Press, Boston Univ.
Apr 18 2026

Armenpress: Afghanistan says 400 killed in Pakistani air strike on Kabul hospi

World09:52, 17 March 2026
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At least 400 people were killed and 250 injured in an air strike by Pakistan on a drug rehabilitation hospital in Kabul, Reuters reported citing a spokesman of the Afghan Taliban government.

Pakistan rejected the claim as false and misleading and said it “precisely ‌targeted military installations and terrorist support infrastructure” on Monday night.

“The visible secondary detonations after the strikes clearly indicate the presence of large ammunition depots,” Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said in a post on X.

The conflict that began last month is the worst ever between the neighbours who share a 2,600-km (1,600-mile) border.

The escalation comes amid wider instability in the neighbourhood where the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation have plunged ⁠the Middle East into a crisis.

The strike came hours after the U.N. Security Council called on Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to immediately step up efforts to combat terrorism. Pakistan accuses Kabul of harboring militant groups, particularly the Pakistani Taliban, which it says carry out attacks inside Pakistan.

The Security Council resolution, adopted unanimously, didn’t name Pakistan but condemns “in the strongest terms all terrorist activity including terrorist attacks.” The resolution also extends the U.N. political mission in Afghanistan, UNAMA, for three months.

Pakistan’s government accuses Afghanistan of providing safe haven to the Pakistani Taliban, which is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States, as well as to outlawed Baloch separatist groups and other militants who frequently target Pakistani security forces and civilians across the country. Kabul denies the charge, The Associated Press reports.

On Sunday, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said the military has killed 684 Afghan Taliban forces, a claim rejected by Afghanistan, which says casualties are far lower. Afghanistan’s Defense Ministry and other officials have said Afghanistan has killed more than 100 Pakistani soldiers.

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Trump seeks to delay China visit

Iran10:11, 17 March 2026
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US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he is planning to delay a visit to China later in March by about a month because of the Iran war, the BBC reported.

“We’ve requested that we delay it a month or so,” the BBC quoted Trump as saying at a press briefing in the White House, adding that it was important that he remained available to oversee the war.

Trump said he had proposed the delay solely to make sure he was around to manage the war.

“I’m looking forward to being with him,” he said, referring to Chinese President Xi Jinping. “We have a very good relationship.”

“There’s no tricks to it either,” Trump added. “It’s very simple. We’ve got a war going on. I think it’s important that I be here.”

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the meeting’s delay would not be due to Washington’s request that Beijing help in the Gulf, or any trade disagreements.

Bessent said: “The President wants to remain in DC to coordinate the war effort… Travelling abroad at a time like this may not be optimal.”

The latest development comes a day after Trump told the Financial Times that he might postpone the meeting if China did not help unblock the Strait of Hormuz – a critical waterway for the Gulf’s energy shipments.

He also called on other nations to help ships transit safely through the channel.

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EU has ‘no appetite’ to expand Mideast naval mission to Strait of Hormuz, Kall

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European Union foreign ministers showed “no appetite” to expand an EU naval mission in ‌the Middle East to the Strait of Hormuz for the time being, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Monday.

The EU’s Aspides mission – named after the Greek word for “shields” – was established in 2024 to protect ships from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebel group in the Red Sea.

“Now, restarting the shipments of fertilisers, food and energy through the Strait of Hormuz is another urgent priority. Today, we discussed options to better protect the shipping in the region. The EU already has naval operations in place. We have Aspides that plays a key role in safeguarding freedom of navigation.  There was in our discussions a clear wish to strengthen this operation. But for the time being, there was no appetite in changing the mandate of operation Aspides – for now. While the Strait of Hormuz is at the centre stage, the Red Sea also remains critical. The risk that Houthis get involved is real, so we must remain vigilant,” EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas said at a press conference after the Foreign Affairs Council meeting. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has called on other nations to help police the strait after Iran responded to U.S.-Israeli ⁠attacks by using drones, missiles and mines to effectively close the channel for tankers that normally transport a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, according to Reuters.

“This is not Europe’s war – this situation in the region. We have the operation Aspides, as I said, in the Red Sea. The discussion was that it should be strengthened, because it does not have too many naval assets. It should have more. But the discussion on whether we are also extending this mandate to cover the Strait of Hormuz, to go north from the Muscat line, there was no appetite from the Member States to do that. As I said, nobody wants to go actively in this war. And of course, everybody is concerned what will be the outcome. What was stressed as well was the diplomatic outreach to have solutions,” Kallas added.

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Drones, rockets fired at US embassy in Baghdad

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Rockets and at least five drones were launched at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad ‌early on Tuesday from areas around the city, Reuters reported citing Iraqi security sources.

The attack has been described as the most intense since the start of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

Reuters reported citing an eyewitness that at least three drones ⁠headed in the direction of the embassy. The C-RAM air defence system shot down two of them while a third struck inside the embassy compound, from which fire and smoke could be seen rising, the eyewitness said.

Iranian backed militias have been attacking U.S. interests in Iraq in retaliation for the war which began on February 28, according to Reuters.

On Monday, Iran-aligned group Kataib Hezbollah announced the death of its ⁠senior commander and spokesperson, and Popular Mobilization Forces said air strikes killed at least eight of its fighters in the Iraqi ⁠town of al-Qaim near Syria.

Reuters reported that Iraqi security forces have been deployed across parts of the capital and closed Baghdad’s ⁠fortified Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions including the U.S. embassy.

The U.S. and Israel launched what they described as a pre-emptive strike against Iran on February 28, claiming that Tehran was developing a nuclear weapon and posed a threat—an allegation Iran has denied. In response, Iran launched counterattacks, firing missiles and drones at Israel, as well as at U.S. assets and other targets across the Middle East.

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Mojtaba Khamenei escaped death by seconds – The Telegraph

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Iran’s new supreme leader survived US and Israeli air strikes because he stepped outside for a walk in his garden minutes before his home was hit by missiles, according to a leaked audio obtained by The Telegraph.

The recording reveals that Mojtaba Khamenei was targeted in the same attack that killed his father Ali Khamenei and other members of the Iranian leadership, and his family. But he had gone outside “to do something” moments before Israeli Blue Sparrow ballistic missiles hit his residence at 9.32am local time on Feb 28.

The recording is attributed to Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol for Ali Khamenei’s office, who delivers a statement to senior clerics and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and provides the first detailed account of what happened inside the supreme leader’s compound when it came under fire.

The Telegraph said the recording was leaked to it and has since been independently verified.

Hosseini revealed that Mojtaba Khamenei suffered an injury to his leg in the strikes, while his wife and son were killed instantly and his brother-in-law was decapitated, according to the report.

The body of Mohammad Shirazi, chief of Khamenei’s military bureau, was also “blown to pieces”. Only “a few kilos of flesh” could be used to identify him, Hosseini told the meeting, held on March 12 in Tehran’s Qolhak neighbourhood.

On Feb 28, Ali Khamenei and senior security officials were gathered for a meeting when missiles hit the compound. Mohammad Pakpour, the IRGC chief, Aziz Nasirzadeh, Iran’s defence minister, and Ali Khamenei were among those killed.

Mr Hosseini said in the recording: “God’s will was that Mojtaba had to go out to the yard to do something and then return.

“He was outside and was heading upstairs when they struck the building with a missile. His wife, Ms Haddad, was martyred instantly.”

Mr Hosseini said Mojtaba sustained only “a minor injury to his leg”.

According to Mr Hosseini, the strikes targeted multiple locations within the office complex simultaneously and appeared aimed at wiping out the entire Khamenei family.

Mojtaba was selected as supreme leader on March 9.

He has not been seen since the start of the war or since his election. His only message to his people came in the form of a written message read on state television.

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Israel claims Iran’s security chief Larijani is killed

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Israel’s Defense Minister ‌Israel Katz said on Tuesday that ⁠Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, Ali Larijani, had been killed in an ‌Israeli ⁠strike.

Multiple Israeli media outlets also said the ⁠strikes targeted Gholamreza Soleimani, the head of the Basij Resistance Force and other senior Basij figures.

There was no confirmation from ⁠Iran.

Katz said Larijani had been “eliminated” and that he and the Israeli prime minister had instructed the military to “continue hunting down” Iran’s leadership, according to the BBC.

Meanwhile, Iranian state media published a handwritten note by Larijani, though it was not clear whether it was intended as proof of the life of the senior official. Larijani’s note, published on his social media pages, commemorates 84 Iranian sailors, whose funeral is expected on Tuesday, killed in a US attack on their naval ship in international waters, Al Jazeera reported. 

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Sri Lanka declares Wednesdays off as Asian countries try to conserve fuel

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Sri Lanka has declared every Wednesday a holiday for public institutions to conserve fuel as the island nation grapples with possible shortages in the wake of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, BBC reported.

“We must prepare for the worst, but hope for the best,” President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said at an emergency meeting with senior officials on Monday.

Nearly 90% of all the oil and gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz last year was bound for Asia, which is the world’s largest oil-importing region.

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