THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF EURO-AZERI RELATIONS
By Federico Bordonaro for ISN Security Watch
ISN Security Watch, Switzerland
Dec 7 2006
As its ties with the EU grow stronger, Azerbeijan must take care not
to weaken already established ties with its regional neighbor Russia.
During a November meeting between Azeri President Ilham Aliyev and
European Commission (EC) President Jose Manuel Barrosso in Brussels,
the pair signed an agreement to launch an energy partnership between
Baku and the European Union (EU). But the EC president insisted
that the importance of Euro-Azeri cooperation went far beyond energy
security.
Barroso said he was pleased with the strengthening EU-Azerbaijan
relations through the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP), but the
agreement was multi-faceted. "Our relations are also about pursuing
shared European values of democracy, good governance, fundamental
freedoms and the protection of human rights," he said.
Barroso’s words reflect the increased European interest in Azerbaijan
and the South Caucasus area.
The Cooperation Council, consisting of the EU and the Republic of
Azerbaijan, held its seventh meeting in Brussels on 14 November,
just one week after Aliyev’s visit, highlighting Europe’s strong
interest in stabilizing the region and forging solid energy relations.
At a time of growing anxiety over energy security and worries
about Georgia’s political instability, the EU is actively seeking
a comprehensive security policy for the troubled, but energy-rich,
region. And it must do so while at the same time initiating a new
common stance policy toward a resurgent Russia, which appears committed
to restore its hegemonic role in its neighborhood.
It will not be an easy task.
Behind developing Euro-Azeri relations The EU’s enlargement into
former Soviet regions has brought new security issues. Since 2003,
the ENP framework has been aimed at enhancing political, security,
economic and cultural cooperation with a number of countries, including
Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In such a broad framework, the Euro-Azeri relations have taken on
a new dimension. As a country whose post-Communist elite showed
interest in cultivating good relations both with Russia and with
Western institutions, Azerbaijan was quickly identified as one of the
new republics in need of Western economic aid. Additionally, European
leaders have not been opposed NATO’s steps to include Georgia and
Azerbaijan among the countries which may join the organization in
the next decade.
Azerbaijan’s geopolitical location is key. Notwithstanding its
troubled relations with Armenia and the unsettled Nagorno-Karabakh
issue, Baku enjoys relative political stability and its importance
as a gateway between the Caspian Sea and Georgia is reflected by
the new Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and other pipeline projects
that aim at increasing hydrocarbons transportation between Kazakhstan
and Azerbaijan.
Former EC President Romano Prodi stated in 2004 that Azerbaijan
and Kazakhstan were destined to play an increasingly vital role for
Europe’s energy needs. The EU’s interests lie especially in fostering
broad legal reforms in Baku, leading to the possible harmonization
of EU-Azerbaijan energy market rules.
Such a goal is pursued by European negotiators at a time when Russia’s
ambitious energy-based power strategy – thanks to state-owned Gazprom-
is perceived as a threat to European energy diversification needs
and liberal rules.
Big stakes beyond idealism Viewed from Europe, the most important task
in the next few years is the diversification of Caspian oil and natural
gas routes, contrary to Gazprom’s hegemonic attempts. For Azerbaijan,
it is vital to preserve national security and its role as an energy
hub between Central Asia and Europe, and Russia and Iran.
Although Europe insists on Azerbaijan’s democratization and full
commitment to respect human rights – as stated in the November
agreement – energy security obviously emerges as the most important
goal beyond Europe’s actions.
The agreement’s priorities include energy legislation harmonization,
security and safety enhancement of energy supplies and transit systems,
development of an energy demand policy and exchange of expertise.
However, from the Azeri perspective, the country needs to secure its
growth and be regarded as a reliable partner, while guaranteeing its
strategic security.
Elnur Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s representative for multilateral economic
relations in Brussels, told ISN Security Watch during an interview
this week that Baku wanted to enhance cooperation with Europe on all
fronts. "What we think is that focusing on energy will facilitate
other kinds of cooperation, since Europe’s needs make it a good basis
for more common policies."
Since Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is based on balancing good relations
among Russia, the EU and the US, Baku will be careful not to strain
ties with the parties.
"Our relations with Russia are very pragmatic," Aliyev said. "They
follow a strategy dictated uniquely by our need to protect our
interests." He stressed that Azerbaijan "is not trying to be
pro-Western or pro-Russian."
Aliyev said that as a consequence "we are positive that we can be
a stabilizing player in South Caucasus. We will continue to support
Georgia’s territorial integrity against separatism and all kind of
extremism, just like we’ve always had."
Renewed tensions challenge Euro-Azeri relations The main obstacle for
the future of the EU-Azeri bilateral relations could be Russia, which,
among other issues, does not share Europe’s views on EU expansion.
After his Brussels trip, Aliyev flew to Moscow where he discussed the
future of the Russo-Azeri strategic partnership with President Vladimir
Putin. Although Moscow’s main worry concerning Azerbaijan is Baku’s
strengthening ties with NATO, energy matters were also part of the
talks. Aliyev’s apparent unwillingness to satisfy Moscow’s requests on
Georgia and NATO may expose the country to possible energy blockades
reminiscent of the Russo-Ukrainian dispute in January this year.
Analysts in Russia and Western Europe have described the context of
the EU-Russia-Azerbaijan relations in various ways. Some European
reports highlighted Moscow’s chances of fully restoring its hegemony
in Azerbaijan – like in the Soviet days.
However, in a report in the Russian daily Komersant earlier this
month it was argued that Azerbaijani authorities appeared determined
to resist Russia’s diplomatic offensive and continue forming its
EU-US ties.
For Europe, stability in the South Caucasus and an effective
partnership with Azerbaijan are key to enhance energy security and
prestige. As the EU prepares for enlargement in the Black Sea area
– with Romania and Bulgaria joining next month – its capability to
attract the Caucasian republics and project its political influence
in the region has become increasingly important.
How to reach such goals while improving relations with Russia is one
of Europe’s big challenges in the years to come.
Federico Bordonaro, based in Italy, is an analyst of international
relations and geopolitics with the Power and Interest News Report
and Strategic-Road.com. He is an expert on the new structure of the
international system after the Cold War, the European integration
process, security and defense issues and political realism.
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