KEEP GEORGIA (AND ARMENIA) ON YOUR MIND
By David B. Boyajian November 16, 2006, freelance writer based in Massachusetts
AZG Armenian Daily
09/12/2006
If Georgia isn’t on your mind, it should be.
Armenia’s northern neighbor has for years enraged Moscow by cozying up
to the US and NATO. So, using Georgia’s recent arrest of four Russian
officers for spying as a convenient pretext, the Kremlin has severed
its land, rail, air, and sea traffic with that country and imposed
various other sanctions. Russia may even – as it has done before –
double the price, or shut off, the natural gas upon which Georgia is
heavily dependent.
In reality, though, this crisis isn’t between Russia and Georgia. It’s
between Russia and the US/NATO.
They’ve been engaged in a high-stakes tug-of-war to prevent the other
from dominating the oil and gas rich Caspian Sea region.
What makes little, impoverished Georgia so important?
Geography. Georgia is currently the West’s (and Turkey’s) only land
and pipeline route to and from Azerbaijan and the Caspian basin.
Every other route from the west crosses Iran or Russia and is,
therefore, unacceptable to Washington.
Recall, of course, that Turkey and Azerbaijan have shut their borders
with Armenia. Thus, only Georgia, not Armenia, can serve as an
east-west corridor at this time.
The NATO Threat
Moscow aims to strong-arm Georgia back into Russia’s orbit, thereby
slamming the door to the Caspian in NATO’s face.
If, however, Georgia joins NATO – Washington already trains and
equips Georgia’s soldiers – the Russian bear could never again lay
a paw on Georgia.
Azerbaijan would probably follow Georgia into NATO.
Russia’s position in the Caucasus would then all but collapse.]
NATO could then jump across the Caspian Sea and march straight into
Muslim Central Asia, posing a possibly mortal threat to Russia.
Can Russia subdue Georgia and forestall such a disaster?
Russian Leverage
Russia supplies nearly all of Georgia’s natural gas and owns or
controls a considerable portion of its energy infrastructure. And
though Tbilisi is frantically seeking alternative energy supplies from
Azerbaijan, Iran, and Turkey, Russia is probably capable of freezing
Georgia and severely damaging its economy in the near-term.
Even a Russian military attack on Georgia cannot be ruled out.
Short of that, Russia is clearly hoping to intimidate Georgians
into dumping their pro-NATO, American educated president, Mikheil
Saakashvili, whom one Russian official calls "an American puppet."
Presumably, a pro-Russian leader would then replace him and bring
Georgia back into the Russian fold.
Something roughly similar occurred earlier this year in Ukraine, where
its pro-NATO President Yuschenko had been giving Moscow nightmares. Due
in part to Moscow’s use of its natural gas weapon, Ukraine recently
reinstalled the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich as Prime Minister.
In the meantime, the Georgian crisis is giving Armenia pause for
thought.
Armenia Blockaded
"By blockading Georgia," says one Armenian analyst, "Russia is also
blockading Armenia."
That’s because most of Armenia’s trade transits Georgian ports or the
Georgian – Russian border. More importantly, Armenia gets its natural
gas from Russia through the same pipeline that supplies Georgia.
As in Georgia, Russia owns or controls much of Armenia’s energy
infrastructure, including the Metzamor nuclear power facility.
Russia has been long nonchalant about the pain it inflicts on its
"strategic ally" Armenia whenever it has shut its border with, or
gas pipeline to, Georgia.
That’s the Kremlin’s way of telling Yerevan that it could suffer
the same fate as Tbilisi if it becomes too friendly with America and
NATO. Should Armenia be concerned?
Armenia Next?
Since independence in 1991, Yerevan has walked a tightrope between
Russia and the United States.
Unlike Georgia, which is hostile to Russia and friendly to Turkey,
Armenia is Russia’s ally and looks to it for military support against
Turkey. Indeed, Russia’s only friends in the Caucasus are Armenia
and Artsakh/Karabagh.
At the same time, Armenia has excellent relations with the US and
Europe, with which it has major historical, cultural, and Diasporan
links.
That makes the Kremlin nervous. It worries that Armenia could, like
Georgia, give NATO a path to the Caspian.
Armenia itself worries that, historically, Russia has often taken
Armenians for granted and betrayed them to Turks and Azerbaijanis. Even
today, Russia’s burgeoning economic and political relations with
Turkey raise the specter of Russia’s selling out Armenia.
On the other hand, Yerevan is aware that the West would itself be
an unreliable ally, having always sided, in the final analysis,
with Turks against Armenians.
Yet despite its vulnerability, Christian Armenia is by far the most
stable and ethnically homogenous nation in the Caucasus. That makes
it a very attractive partner for those who wish to shut out NATO
or, alternatively, bring NATO to the shores of the Caspian. That is
Armenia’s power – its potential trump card.
Will Armenia leverage that power in the long term and weather the
present crisis? Only if its leaders are totally dedicated to the
people and intolerant of corruption, which saps the nation’s and the
Diaspora’s resources and morale.