Leader Of Public Organization Arrested In Armenia On Charges Of Coup

LEADER OF PUBLIC ORGANIZATION ARRESTED IN ARMENIA ON CHARGES OF COUP ATTEMPT

Interfax, Russia
Dec 10 2006

YEREVAN. Dec 10 (Interfax) – Zhirair Sefilian, a veteran of the
Nagorno-Karabakh war, a commander of the Shushi battalion and the
coordinator of a public organization called For the Protection of
Liberated Territories was arrested early Sunday by Officers of the
Armenian National Security Service.

Sefilian is accused of attempting to stage a coup, the press service
of his public organization told Interfax on Sunday.

"Officers of the Armenian National Security Service searched the
apartments of a number of Sefilian’s supporters and friends, as well
as the office of the Araks-Kura organization, in which Sefilian serves
as head of the board of trustees," the press service said.

Meanwhile, the Armenian National Security Service has yet to comment
on the issue.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Ghosts Of The Ledra Palace

GHOSTS OF THE LEDRA PALACE
By Sheridan Lambert

Cyprus Mail, Cyprus
Dec 10 2006

WHEN the Ledra Palace opened its doors on October 8, 1949, George
Skyrianides must have been the first to hit the bar. It had been
three long years since he had broached the idea to his partners,
Giorgos Poulias, then vice-mayor of Nicosia, and Dimtrios Zerbini,
a wealthy entrepreneur from Alexandria, and two since he had been
unable to persuade the Cypriot public to buy stock in the newly created
Cyprus Hotels Limited. With investments totalling nearly £200,000 for
land and construction, when the average yearly income was no more
than £100, and the furniture and fixtures on the way from Venice,
the Colonial government’s refusal to finance the remaining £20,000
almost sank the ship.

If it hadn’t been for Zerbini’s last-minute decision to buy up a
controlling interest in the company, Skyrianides vision of Cannes
on the Pediaios might never have flowered, and the UN ended up at
the Hilton.

Anticipating the property hounds of Paphos by half a century,
Skyrianides had realised, even in the wake of World War II, that
in a world shrunken by airport hubs, tourism would soon become an
industry in itself. With many European capitals still smoking ruins,
Nicosia also had at least this advantage: it was still standing. It
is unlikely that Skyrianides’ vision entailed donkey sightings or
lace demonstrations; rather, it would have reflected the cosmopolitan
flavour of his social milieu. In this sense, too, Skyrianides had
been ahead of his time, envisioning a European oasis a ferry’s ride
from the Jordan River at a time when a layover between Cairo and
Paris still meant something.

Skyrianides and his partners are now dead, as are most people who
could tell you what colour the Ledra’s bedspreads were in 1949, so
when I was told of a man who could show me the dry-cleaning bills,
I drove straight to the corporate offices of Louis Hotels before
those memories became statistics yellowing in a shoebox.

Costas Loizou, now a financial consultant to Louis, had been the
Ledra’s first accountant, and later its manager. When I entered his
office, I could see that despite his seventy plus years Loizou would
be around for a few more. Spry and passionate, he seemed to have been
waiting for the past thirty to tell the Ledra’s story.

Spreading some old magazines out on his desk, he said, "Lyndon Johnson
stayed at the Ledra in 1962." He produced a memo from Johnson’s
visit. "He was tall and the beds were short. We had to make him a
new bed."

Reminiscing about the Ledra seemed to age Loizou backwards. He sat
down behind a clutter of articles, magazines and official documents
related to the hotel and said, "When the hotel opened its gates in
1949, they didn’t give stars, but the Ledra was considered a deluxe.

I went into the service in 1950. I remember the first bill I had to
calculate. One pound, five shillings for a room with board."

I had trouble believing this. Grinning, Mr. Loizou said, "My first
salary was £5, plus my share in the ten per cent service charge. I
could buy a lot of things with that."

Whisking through an old photo album, he stopped at a photograph of a
dour-faced man and said, "Yuri Gagarin. He was a guest in 1952." He
pointed at the photo. "I am here, and this is Gagarin’s signature."

I thought it was a pity that Johnson and Gagarin hadn’t been there
at the same time. They might have sorted things out over a highball,
and could have shared that tall bed.

"The high society was always there," Loizou said. "We had weddings,
parties, functions. We organised tea dances too. Every Sunday."

I couldn’t quite conjure up an image.

"Tea and cakes," Loizou explained, flipping through a magazine. "This
is December 1952… You see the English flag?" He flipped to another
page. "That is Nana Mouskouri." And to another.

As the starlets and dignitaries of half a century ago paraded by,
I remembered that Grivas had been plotting from the caves of Troodos
at the time; bombs were exploding in the King George Hotel on Freedom
Square. It seemed incompatible. Loizou pointed to another photo and
said, "This was our garden. The swimming pool was built in 1963."

An annus horribilis, in retrospect, when the dream of a network of
luxury hotels stretching from Famagusta to Paphos must have started
to unravel with the rest of the bicommunal infrastructure. When I
asked him about the ‘troubles’, Mr Loizou said, "In 1963 we closed
the hotel for a few days," and that was all.

It was as if in that pleasure garden cloistered by palms and cypresses
the crack of tennis balls had drowned out the first shots fired in
Tahtakalas. I wanted to entrench myself in that idyll, in between the
years of bloodshed that preceded and those that would follow. To step
across the Ledra’s threshold as it had been, a crystal chandelier
glittering above, a tea dance on Sunday.

"You know the original chandeliers came from Venice," Loizou said,
as if reading my mind. "And the furniture too. All the rooms had a
private bath. At that time it was very rare."

"The original ballroom had a sunken oak dance floor," he went on.

"The marble around it came from Greece. Now I don’t know what they
have. Plastic? Carpets? And there were two frescos, one of Venice
and the other of the Castle of Kyrenia, by Angelopoulos."

I neglected to mention the UN sewage fountain I had seen a week ago
and asked about the Ledra’s celebrated orchestras instead, and was
glad I had.

"Ah! The bands were famous! We used to have an arrangement with a
famous impresario, Mr Artin Bahadourian, an Armenian. They killed him,
you may have heard."

I hadn’t and wondered why I should have.

"They killed him because he was rich, and they knew he had diamonds.

He had offices here in Nicosia. In Beirut, in Baghdad, everywhere. We
always brought an orchestra to the Ledra from the Casino du Liban
in Lebanon, or to the Chanteclair. We were co-operating with the
Chanteclair, a very famous cabaret, but a family cabaret."

"And the bar?" I asked.

"Yes, we had a lovely bar at the Ledra."

I mentioned my recent excursion there, and my disappointment. I might
have mentioned the invasion of Nanking to a Chinese.

"Now! Yes! But not then. I was there too recently and I was very sad.

I was crying actually. Now they’ve spoiled it. They painted it black!"

Loizou showed me a picture of a homely, smiling barman in a white
dinner jacket. Beaming himself, he said, "This is Stelios, our famous
barman. They have written many articles about him. Stelios was the
one who invented the brandy sour."

I had heard this story, and asked if it was true.

"Yes! Stelios told me personally. The story is that King Farouk
was staying at the Forest Park Hotel in Platres. The Muslims aren’t
supposed to drink liquor, so they asked Stelios to make King Farouk
a drink which should look like a fruit juice. He tried various things
and finally arrived at the brandy sour, which is brandy, lemon squash,
soda and water. Stelios was a good man."

He must have been. A saint really, to have suffered the presence of
so many boozing international reporters for all those years. Closing
the album, Loizou said, "You have probably heard of Savvas, the
hall porter."

A character straight out of Casablanca from what I understood, or
possibly the inspiration for one, Savvas had been every reporter’s
best friend, a sort of bag-toting canary who probably knew which side
of the bed King Farouk slept on.

"They said Savvas should have been the first Minister of Information.

He had connections everywhere. But he also did some tricks."

Loizou grinned slyly. "You see, at that time journalists couldn’t
send telegrams directly. They had to send them by taxi to the Cable
and Wireless Office. Savvas used to read them."

"No one suspected him?"

"Finally everybody knew, yes. He was also a very good man.

Unfortunately, he played the horses."

The Ledra’s affairs grow cloudy in the late 60s. The Zerbini family
had fallen on hard times after Nasser ousted Farouk in 1952.

Eventually, they wanted out of Cyprus Hotel Ltd., among whose many
holdings was the Ledra Palace. When no Cypriot takers stepped forward,
they sold their interest to British-owned Trust House Forte, which
led to a belated public outcry in Cyprus – what if the British sold to
the Turks? – and Makarios, the patriot, intervened. With a loan from
Barclays Bank, Louis Hotels and the Archbishopric each bought half of
a 67 per cent interest in the company. But, as Mr Loizou explained,
a hat can’t fit two heads. Two years later, Louis sold out to the
Archbishopric, and in 1978, the newly elected Archbishop Chrysostomos
bought out the remaining 33 per cent after agreeing to leave the
ownership of the Ledra alone in the hands of the original shareholders.

And so today as the Cypriot tourist industry founders again, as
retirees from Devonshire settled in Peyia are learning to fish
from their living rooms and Nicosia’s Laïki Geitonia looks more
like downtown Karachi, there is some comfort in the thought that the
Ledra, protected on two fronts, by sentimental interests and heritage
initiatives, may open its doors again one day.

>>From somewhere within the frescoed ballroom, Mr Loizou resurfaced
and said, "I have the menu from August 15, 1960, the founding of the
Republic. I looked for the original piano, but couldn’t find it. The
UN said they had thrown it away."

Apropos of this, I asked about the registers. Loizou sighed.

"Unfortunately, I don’t know who took them. It may have been the
Canadians."

I promised to look into the matter, revelling at the thought that
the blameless Canadians might have filched them.

Loizou said, "Ask them. Just don’t tell them they stole them."

I promised that too, and left with a copy of the Cyprus Tourist
Development Office’s Hotel Guide, dated 1951, which I opened in
the lift.

Population 488,000 – 80 per cent Greek, 18 per cent Turkish, 2 per
cent Other. Steamship services from Marseilles via Genoa, Piraeus,
Alexandria. Cyprus wines: Delight of connoisseurs for hundreds
of years. Cyprus fruits and hand-made lace: world famous. Cyprus
hospitality: warm and genuine.

–Boundary_(ID_sgRjcibC+4Sl/JglCbwpTA)–

Nagorno-Karabakh Starts Referendum On Constitution

NAGORNO-KARABAKH STARTS REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION

ITAR-TASS, Russia
Dec 10 2006

YEREVAN, December 10 (Itar-Tass) – Nagorno-Karabakh starts a referendum
on a Constitution of this self-proclaimed republic. A total of 278
polling stations opened at 08.00 local time in the republican capital
Stepanakert and in all Nagorno-Karabakh districts.

The only polling station outside the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh
republic (NKR) was set up in Yerevan.

Ballot papers contain only one question: "Do you agree with the
adoption of the NKR Constitution?"

Election lists contain 90,000 voters out of 137,700 people, living
in the republic, Itar-Tass learnt at the Central Commission on the
Referendum. The Constitution will be pronounced valid if at least a
third of registered voters approve it, however, no less than half of
those who go to the polls.

Observers from various countries as well as from breakaway entities
over the post-Soviet space, including Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
the Dniester republic, with which the NKR cooperates, arrived in
Stepanakert on the occasion of the referendum.

"The presence of a Constitution is one of the most important conditions
for building a law-abiding state, and opinions of all political forces
concur on this question", said NKR President Arkady Gukasyan.

"The constitutional referendum is another important stage in the
process of establishing our independent statehood and further
development of democracy in the country," claimed chairman of the
Central Commission on the Referendum Sergei Nasibyan.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic has not been recognized by a single
state in the world, including Armenia which renders it military aid
and grants annually financial assistance.

Azerbaijan, in whose territory the NKR enclave is located, flatly
denies any independent status of Nagorno-Karabakh, stating its
territorial integrity.

Armenian Teen Wins BBC Talent Contest

ARMENIAN TEEN WINS BBC TALENT CONTEST

Malaysia Sun, Malaysia
Big News Network
Dec 10 2006

A 17-year-old Armenian singer has won the BBC World Service’s Next
Big Thing competition in London with her song, I Like, written by
her siblings.

The BBC reported Saturday that the singer known as Silva beat out
six other acts from around the world at the final competition.

Judges praised the song as fresh and new and they called her
performance second to none. Silva had worked with her brother and her
sister on the fetching song. She later said that the glowing comments
from the judges gave her the confidence to make the step up to the
international level.

Silva told the BBC, It’s terrific; it’s unbelievable to be in first
place.

The competition, part of the BBC’s Generation Next season, featured
performers under 18.

Coup Attempt In Armenia?

COUP ATTEMPT IN ARMENIA?

The Moscow Times, Russia
Dec 11 2006

Armenian authorities on Sunday detained the head of a public
organization accused of plotting a coup attempt, officials and
activists said.

Zhirair Sefilian, a citizen of Lebanon who heads For Protection of
Liberated Territories, is facing deportation on charges of plotting
to overthrow the government, said Armen Agaian, a leading member of
Sefilian’s group. Agaian rejected the charges.

Sefilian is a veteran of the 1988-1994 war in the disputed enclave
of Nagorny Karabakh.

Armenians Hold Referendum In Nagorny Karabakh

ARMENIANS HOLD REFERENDUM IN NAGORNY KARABAKH

Agence France Presse — English
December 10, 2006 Sunday 4:03 AM GMT

Armenians in Nagorny Karabakh on Sunday celebrate the 15th anniversary
of their decision to break away from Azerbaijan with a referendum
on a constitution for their separatist region in a move slammed by
central authorities in Baku.

The Karabakh vote follows on the heels of similar polls in a number
of unrecognized mini-states in the former Soviet Union, including
Georgia’s breakaway South Ossetia and Moldova’s Transdniestr earlier
this year.

The vote is seen by outsiders as an attempt to draw attention to
the plight of Karabakh’s separatist government, which has sought
recognition since it won de-facto independence from Azerbaijan in a
grueling early 1990s war.

Nagorny Karabakh, which has its own military, flag and government,
displays many of the characteristics of an independent state but is
internationally considered part of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry criticized the upcoming vote last week,
saying it "interferes with an ongoing peace process" adding that a
poll in Karabakh could not be considered legitimate until the area’s
exiled Azerbaijani population was allowed to return.

Despite years of talks little has changed on the ground in Karabakh,
a region of some 140,000 people which subsists on aid from neighboring
Armenia and generous donations from millions of Armenians living in
the West and Russia, since the war’s end.

Exchanges of gunfire over a tense cease fire line with Azerbaijan
are a common occurrence and dozens of soldiers die on both sides of
the fixed front line each year.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan erupted in the late 1980s
when a wave of independence movements swept across Soviet territory.

Some 25,000 people died in the conflict and up to a million people
were displaced, with some 250,000 Armenians fleeing Azerbaijani cities
and some 750,000 Azerbaijanis escaping from Karabakh and other areas
captured by Armenian forces.

Give Us The Holy Wisdom Of Forgetting

GIVE US THE HOLY WISDOM OF FORGETTING
By Lubomyr Luciuk

Winnipeg Sun (Manitoba), Canada
December 10, 2006 Sunday
FINAL EDITION

As I looked on, he asked them: "Should your country join Europe?"

They all replied, emphatically, "Yes!"

I was not surprised. These young women and men, at Istanbul’s Bogazici
University, were some of the best students I have taught, and I have
been a professor for 20 years. Most were native-born Turks and almost
all were Muslims, but they think themselves modern and secular and,
as such, European. Certainly, they were pleased to hear me making
positive reference to Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded the Republic
of Turkey, in 1923. Its proposed entry into the European Union was
our subject. They were all in favour.

Yet, I wondered, how widespread was their enthusiasm? I placed my
colleague’s question before men I first met in 1979, in Istanbul’s
Kapali Carsi, the Grand Bazaar. For years I have nurtured those
contacts, to the extent that Hasan and Metin and Ufuk have become
as old friends. So, over a fine fish supper on the shores of the
Bosporus, below the bridge cementing Asia to Europe, I asked —
"Should Turkey strive to enter Europe?"

These Turks are as hospitable as I have always found true followers
of Islam to be. Middle-aged, successful, and well travelled, they also
enjoy courageous conversation. Aware of the historic hostility toward
"the Turk in Europe," they voiced grudges of their own. One reminded
me that Turks were welcome when NATO needed their infantry divisions
to shore up its southern flank and when Turkish guest workers took
jobs most Europeans refused. Yet, as soon as Turkey expressed a desire
to join Europe, they were found wanting.

PEFIDIOUSNESS

Another grumbled over how Europeans pontificate about the Ottoman’s
wartime mistreatment of the Armenians, yet conveniently forget that
most of the Middle East’s problems were spawned by the perfidiousness
of England and France, dismembering "the sick man of Europe" after
the Great War, then betraying the very same Arabs they had goaded
into revolt. And who, they asked, injected Israel into their midst,
a state with weapons of mass destruction and, apparently, carte blanche
to do whatever it wants with Palestine’s indigenes, an enduring source
of geopolitical instability? Shocking perspectives for western ears,
perhaps, yet a shared text amongst students and shopkeepers alike.

My friends came to a rough consensus. If joining Europe meant being
told how they should live, or what they should believe, or atone for,
they aren’t much interested. And, as one of them pointed out, they
can visit Europe any time they want. No need to join.

So I asked my students the question again, changing it a little. If
Europeans require their society to make concessions to prove how truly
democratic and inclusive they are, would they agree? Could they, for
example, accept the Orthodox Patriarch of Constantinople recovering
one of Istanbul’s greatest sites, the Hagia Sophia? Once mother church
of all Eastern Christians of the Byzantine liturgical tradition, both
Orthodox and Greek Catholic, it became a mosque after the city fell
to Mehmet the Conqueror, in 1453. Since 1935, at Ataturk’s command,
it has been a museum. Why not return the Church of the Holy Wisdom
to its original owners, a gesture of reconciliation?

After all, anyone can visit Notre-Dame in Paris, or St. Stephen’s in
Vienna, or St. Peter’s in Rome, be they Hindu or Catholic, Muslim or
Jew. Those who wish to pray, can. Those who do not suffer no shaming.

The only condition upon admission is the same for all,
mutual respect. Yet, at designated times, each of these great
cathedral-museums becomes a place of Christian worship. Why not the
Hagia Sophia?

Some were puzzled that a Canadian professor, presumably a secularist,
would propose making a museum into a re-consecrated church. Others
were angry at the very thought. Why not just leave well enough alone?

Among these bright young Turks, I realized, there would be more than
a little dissent if Europe’s entry fee becomes too dear.

Not surprisingly, the recent visit of Pope Benedict XVI to Turkey
was protested. He deflected much of that resentment, adroitly, by
paying respects at Ataturk’s tomb, later joining the Grand Mufti of
Istanbul for silent prayer inside the Blue Mosque. The Pope also met
with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the honorary leader of the
world’s 300 million Orthodox, a step toward a restoration of full
communion between Catholic and Orthodox worlds separated since the
Great Schism of 1054. And His Holiness went, briefly, into the very
church my students and I discussed, the Hagia Sophia. While there I
hope he beseeched our Lord above to bestow upon us all — Catholic,
Orthodox and Muslim believers alike — the holy wisdom of forgetting.

For dwelling too much on the past may not be wise, for any of us.

Azerbaijan’s Breakaway Karabakh Holds Referendum On Constitution

AZERBAIJAN’S BREAKAWAY KARABAKH HOLDS REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION

RIA Novosti, Russia
December 10, 2006

YEREVAN, December 10 (RIA Novosti) – Azerbaijan’s breakaway province of
Nagorno-Karabakh is voting Sunday in a referendum on its constitution.

The conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with a
largely Armenian population, first erupted in 1988 when it declared
its independence from Azerbaijan, and moved to join Armenia.

Over 30,000 people were killed on both sides between 1988 and 1994,
and over 100 died following a 1994 ceasefire. Nagorno-Karabakh remained
in Armenian hands, but tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have
persisted. Azerbaijan is determined to restore its control over the
separatist region.

More than 100 international observers and journalists from Russia,
France, the United States, Italy, Israel, Serbia and other countries
are monitoring the referendum.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Constitutional Referendum Set To Reaffirm Indepen

NAGORNO-KARABAKH’S CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM SET TO REAFFIRM INDEPENDENCE BID
By Avet Demourian, Associated Press Writer

Associated Press Worldstream
December 10, 2006 Sunday 5:33 PM GMT

The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave on Sunday held a constitutional
referendum that was expected to reaffirm its independence bid.

The draft constitution describes Nagorno-Karabakh as a "sovereign,
democratic" state.

More than 74,500 people, or 83.7 percent of the region’s 89,000
eligible voters, cast ballots, said Mikael Adzhian, a spokesman for
the region’s Central Election Commission.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Arkady Gukasian hailed the vote as a landmark
move that would "determine the Nagorno-Karabakh’s people destiny."

At least one third of the region’s eligible voters were needed to
make the vote valid, and a simple majority of those who cast ballots
is necessary for the constitution’s approval.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in Azerbaijan that has been under the
control of Armenian and ethnic-Armenian Karabakh forces since a 1994
cease-fire ended a six-year separatist war that killed about 30,000
people and drove about 1 million from their homes.

The region’s final status remains unresolved, and years of talks
under the auspices of international mediators have brought few
visible results.

Gukasian insisted the vote would not jeopardize peace talks. "The
passage of the constitution will have a positive impact on talks,"
he told reporters.

Azerbaijan has rejected the referendum as having no legal meaning.

Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Azeri population fled the conflict more
than a decade ago, and large numbers of them have lived as internally
displaced people since then.

In December 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum in which ethnic
Armenian residents voted overwhelmingly for independence.

Masis Mailian, deputy foreign minister in the Nagorno-Karabakh
administration, said the constitution was essential to codify the
structure of its administration and citizens’ rights.

"It’s necessary to formalize the already existing foundations of
state system and relations between the state and its citizens,"
Mailian told The Associated Press.

Gemayel’s Death May Mean Civil War: What Else For Mideast?

GEMAYEL’S DEATH MAY MEAN CIVIL WAR: WHAT ELSE FOR MIDEAST?
by Katherine Zoepf

New York Observer
December 4, 2006

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 28–Last Wednesday afternoon, I was sitting in
a cafe in Hamra, the traditionally Muslim neighborhood in West Beirut,
wondering why my cell phone had stopped working. There were plenty of
units left in my Lebanese pay-as-you-go account and I’d charged the
handset recently, yet each attempt to make a call or to send a text
produced an exclamation point and an angry-looking error message on
its greenish, pixelated screen.

I set the phone down and ordered a cup of tea. It was brought not by
my usual waitress, but by the cafe’s owner, who wore a grim expression,
introduced himself hurriedly as Raed, and–to my great surprise–pulled
a chair up next to mine and sat down.

"Excuse me for bothering you, but I can tell you’re not from Beirut,
and you may not know what has just happened."

I certainly didn’t know, but felt–as one always feels in Beirut–that
the news couldn’t possibly be good.

"Pierre Gemayel has been shot, in the middle of the day. Can you
imagine? I recommend that you go home and stay there. It will be
hours before your phone works again–the government turns off the
mobile-phone service on these occasions. The important thing is to
get straight home. This will mean war, you know."

I can be a bit slow on the uptake where political topics are concerned,
but discussing politics with a Beiruti always makes me feel especially
dull-witted. Politics in Lebanon is often a life-or-death matter,
and so naturally everyone takes a keen interest. Childhood nights
crouched in bomb shelters, gauging whether the rockets were incoming
or outgoing and decades spent following alliances and assassinations
in Lebanon’s prominent families have a way of honing native political
intelligence to a very fine edge.

I made a clumsy attempt to piece together the implications of this
news, as the Lebanese do so instinctively and immediately. Pierre
Gemayel was a government minister, I knew, but already that seemed
beside the point. Gemayel was from one of the country’s important
Maronite families, the grandson of the founder of the right-wing
Christian militia, the Phalange. This meant that he was a symbol of
Christian power in Lebanon, which meant that his enemies were many,
which meant that those wanting him dead could be … well, almost
anyone, really.

I turned to Raed. "Who do you think would have the most to gain from
Gemayel’s death?"

Raed shrugged. "Almost anyone, really. The point is that our
government is being destroyed. This is nearly on the level of the
Hariri assassination. This will almost certainly mean civil war. He
was shot, can you imagine?"

Pierre Gemayel was shot. It took me another hour and several more
conversations with Lebanese friends to grasp the import of this fact.

Here in Beirut, arranging a car bombing is seen as a relatively easy
way to murder an enemy. But shooting a man on a crowded street in
the middle of a sunny afternoon?

That takes daring. That telegraphs insouciance, power wielded in
complete confidence. The message to Lebanon’s frail, Western-backed
ruling coalition couldn’t have been clearer: You are no longer
in control.

Beirut is a diverse and profoundly class-ridden city; the newcomer
feels it immediately. But in peacetime, these things seem not to
matter. The people seem cheerful, almost supernaturally exuberant.

They enjoy watching each other and parsing the differences among them,
the small matters that divide neighborhoods and religious groups. The
things they mention usually sound to my ear like harmless snobberies,
but I wonder how the city would feel if battle lines were drawn as they
once were, during the long civil war, when individual neighborhoods
became strongholds.

Beirut in the fall smells precisely like Paris in a damp June–there’s
an ineffable, very French smell of motor oil and detergents, butchers’
shops and cigarettes. It smells European and yet looks unmistakably
Middle Eastern. For all its diversity, it is a very compact city,
and I walk almost everywhere. It takes me about 20 minutes to get
from my apartment in western Beirut to Martyr’s Square downtown,
where the big demonstrations are always held. It takes no more than
a half hour to walk over to friends’ apartments in Achrafieh, the
predominantly Christian eastern Beirut neighborhood.

It’s fun examining the differences between the neighborhoods, which
up till now have seemed matters of mere sociological interest, often
sweetly comical and occasionally sad.

Bourj Hammoud is an image of the striving, jovial Armenian jewelers
who fixed my watch. Hamra is the saj bread seller who always corrects
my accent in Arabic so that I "don’t have to sound like a Syrian."

Haret Hreik–or "Hezbollah Central," as my friend Andrew calls
it–brings to mind a certain very enthusiastic taxi driver who took
me on a tour of the piles of rubble that were the result of multiple
Israeli bombing raids; in the garbage that had collected on the site
of one destroyed building, I noticed a Pekingese looking aristocratic
and improbably clean as it trotted around among the boulders of
smashed concrete.

And then there’s Achrafieh, which in its self-regard and Francophilic
pretensions is Beirut’s greatest gift to the amateur sociologist
in search of amusement. The image of Achrafieh that sticks most in
my mind is of a young housewife I once saw, impeccably coiffed and
chatting gaily on her cell phone as she walked out of the Monoprix
grocery store. A tiny, elderly Filipina maid trudged a few paces
behind her with the goods; the maid’s dress–blue gingham with a
lace-trimmed white apron–looked weirdly girlish framed by those
stringy brown arms and wizened face. I had briefly mistaken the maid
for the woman’s child, the gingham for a summer-school uniform.

Whether the Gemayel assassination will turn out to have been the
opening salvo in a renewed civil war remains to be seen, of course.

But more than half of the Lebanese people I speak to in an average
day seem to think so, and since Lebanon is widely seen as the canary
in the mine of the greater Middle East–regional countries from Iran
to Syria to Saudi Arabia all have political interests in Lebanon, and
the collapse of the government in Lebanon will have implications far
beyond its borders–this is very bad news for the region as a whole.

Marwan, who runs the shop where I usually buy my lunchtime sandwiches,
asks me to correct his English.

"I don’t give a shit about this government we have now–there is a
nicer way to say that, isn’t there?"

"You could say ‘I don’t care about this government.’"

"Oh, yes–all my English is from the movies. I mean, I don’t care
about this government–but the problem is that if Lebanon falls now,
we maybe take all the rest of the Middle East down with us."

Katherine Zoepf is working on a book about young women in the Middle
East for the Penguin Press.