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168: If in 2020 Pashinyan could not have predicted the war that would begin

March: 20, 2026

Former RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan writes on his Facebook page. “Yesterday, Pashinyan again resorted to his already predictable behavior, turning the threat of war into a crude political tool rather than a matter of responsibility. This time he went further, actually warning, or rather, blackmailing the Armenian people, that if he loses the upcoming elections, war will be inevitable.

One could think that after the wars, years of failures, losses and disappointment under Pashinyan, such statements would at least be presented with some seriousness or restraint.

Instead, they sound increasingly desperate, almost mechanical, as if repeating the same thought can restore long-lost confidence.

Ironically, the more he tries to advance this narrative, the more it works against him. There is no need to remind the Armenian society about the war. they experienced it, suffered its pain, paid the price for it. And every time he brings up the subject, it doesn’t instill fear of an uncertain future. it brings back very specific memories from his years in power.

Wars during his time were not hypothetical, they were real, devastating and with severe consequences. So when he talks about war, people can’t imagine what it would be like without him. they remember what happened during his reign.

It is therefore not surprising that this argument sounds increasingly hollow. A leader who has failed in the fields of foreign policy and security is now trying to present himself as the only guarantor of peace. This might seem ironic if it were not so serious. The facts speak for themselves.

Opportunities were missed, warnings were ignored, and proposals, such as the 2019 version of the Minsk Group, were not only rejected, but also hidden from the public.

But perhaps the most troubling aspect of this rhetoric is not its cynicism, but its sheer absurdity. Pashinyan speaks as if he has a unique ability to predict the time of war, as if geopolitical realities are adapted to the election results. However, the reality shows something else.

On September 21, 2020, just six days before the start of the 44-day war, he presented his vision “Armenia 2050” in the hall of Matenadaran, full of great ambitions and unrealistic optimism. Not a word, not a hint, not a sign that the country is on the brink of one of the most destructive wars in modern history.

So the question remains. if he could not predict the war that would start in a few days, then on what basis is he now trying to predict a war in the fall?

These constant reminders of the war speak more not about the dangers facing Armenia, but about the incompetence and failures of the person making these statements.

They reflect not strategic perception but political insanity, not leadership but improvisation. And perhaps most tellingly, this approach underestimates the very people it is trying to influence, assuming that they will forget or ignore what they have already experienced. This is perhaps the clearest proof of how detached he is from reality.”

The connection of power systems of Armenia and Turkey means one thing

March: 20, 2026

The authorities are still talking about the prospect of connecting the electricity systems of Armenia and Turkey. They even started discussing investment issues with the Turkish government. They say: “We are ready to start the day before!”

In other circumstances, the given initiative could perhaps be welcomed. For example: 2009-2010. During “football diplomacy”, when there was a serious lack of electricity in Turkey, Armenia was ready to close a part of it. After all, both the economic and security environments in that period were fundamentally different from the current realities.

Today the situation has changed qualitatively.

Turkey is not only overcoming the electricity deficit at a dynamic pace, but has also adopted a strategy to boost exports, including the South Caucasus markets, in the coming years. The prerequisites for the latter are present, especially considering

Continued growth of generating capacity in Turkey: Akkuyu NPP, new nuclear projects in Sinop and Thrace, more than 750 hydropower plants, etc.

In these conditions, the connection of the electricity systems of Armenia and Turkey means one thing: turning Armenia into a net importer.

This trend is additionally deepened by several intra-systemic processes.

The first of these is Yerevan’s choice in favor of a small modular reactor, which in the long run will replace the current base nuclear capacity model, reducing the system’s level of self-sufficiency.

The second is the rapid and chaotic development of solar energy, which, with limited export potential and high seasonal dependence, cannot provide stable coverage of base demand.

The third is the liberalization of the market, which creates all the conditions for importing electricity from foreign markets and actually increasing Armenia’s external dependence.

The EU also acts as a financial supporter of all this, expressing readiness to provide the necessary funds for the purpose of “de-Russification” of Armenia’s energy sector. Naturally, in the form of loans.

Expected results: increase in public debt, sharp decrease in energy self-sufficiency, new security risks.

Vahe Davtyan, doctor of political sciences, professor




22 million drams to silence the voice of the Mother See, and Pashinyan’s family defect

March: 20, 2026

“Staff of the Council of the Public Broadcaster” PA provided money under the name of a grant to the “Spiritual-Cultural Public Television Company” CJSC, “Shogakat” in order to organize the liquidation process. The parties signed the contract yesterday, the price of the contract was 22 million drams.

Within this amount, CJSC’s obligations must be repaid, salaries and severance benefits must be paid, and other expenses must be carried out. 2026 According to the state budget, 221 million drams were allocated for “Shogakat” TV station, and 22 million drams will be allocated from this amount for liquidation.

They say that the other part of the money will be transferred to the Council of the Public Broadcaster for the purpose of technical re-equipment in Public Television and Radio.

Let’s remind that the RA government’s 2025 According to the decision of December 25, “Shoghakat” TV company “Shoghakat” CJSC was dissolved on January 1 of this year.

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In parallel with the campaign of the Catholicos, the authorities hastily decided to close “Shogakat”. CP deputies regularly generated this idea.

“Shogakat” is a spiritual and cultural TV station. The founder is the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church. It was broadcast 18 hours a day on the spiritual-cultural public TV channel and the H1 satellite TV channel.

In 1995, a TV studio was founded in the Ararat Patriarchal Diocese. The initiator and founder was the presbyterial vicar, Archbishop Garegin Nersisyan. Five years later, it was already operating in the Holy Mother See of Etchmiatsin and was registered as “Shogakat” TV station.

2002 “Shogakat” received a broadcasting license and since November it has been operating as a TV station with 18 hours of air time a day. In addition to traditional church programs, educational and cultural programs were also broadcast. According to the contract signed with the Armenian public television in 2004. “Shogakat” television programs began to be broadcast on H1 satellite TV as well.

In fact, during the reign of all previous governments, this TV station was not closed for spreading content, and the bastion of democracy in Armenia was closed. The TV company belonging to the Mother See was made a thing of the past, and Pashinyan’s family newspaper continues the propaganda.