German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev have signed a series of economic agreements aimed at deepening Berlin’s access to Baku’s gas reserves and transit routes. The deal comes as Germany works to diversify its energy supply, and as Azerbaijan balances a Europe-leaning Armenia against a recently repaired relationship with Moscow.

Long-standing trade relationships can unravel in a matter of months, but rebuilding them-or replacing them with new ones-often takes years, if it is possible at all. Armenia is now confronting that reality as farmers and fish producers struggle to find alternative markets after losing access to Russia, their traditional export destination.

Tomatoes and Fish Pile Up in Armenian Warehouses

Armenian farmers, followed by fish producers, have begun protesting after losing access to both their established export markets and the alternative markets they were promised.

Farmers recently blocked the strategic Yerevan-Yeraskh highway, saying processing plants have stopped purchasing their harvest because they can no longer export finished products abroad. One farmer said he had been unable to sell nearly 60 tons of tomatoes. According to protesters, two processing facilities that had previously bought produce from local growers refused this year’s harvest because export opportunities had disappeared.

The following day, fish farmers gathered outside the Armenian government headquarters in Yerevan, demanding a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Khachatryan. They said they had no market for approximately 15,000 tons of live fish that had previously been exported to Russia, while frozen fish products have also remained unsold.

Gor Grigoryan, head of the public organization Union of Fish Farmers of Armenia, said the two support programs introduced by the government are far from sufficient to address the industry’s growing problems.

“Neither the export procedures for the European market nor the subsidy issue has been resolved. The European market remains effectively closed to us. Selling our current production volumes there is simply unrealistic,” Grigoryan said.

Replacing the Russian Market Proves Difficult

Russia previously restricted imports of several Armenian products-including certain vegetables, fruit, beverages, and fish products-after reporting violations of phytosanitary regulations.

Armenian authorities pledged to compensate producers for unsold goods, while the European Union allocated €50 million in financial assistance. However, the continuing protests suggest those measures have not resolved the industry’s difficulties.

Trade with the European Union remains governed by quotas and strict regulatory requirements. Armenia currently has no dedicated agricultural export quotas under the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which does not establish a free trade regime.

Although some customs barriers have been eased, Armenian agricultural products must still meet demanding European certification and phytosanitary standards-requirements that many domestic laboratories and producers are not yet fully equipped to satisfy.

Before the most recent elections, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan promised that if export problems emerged, the government would step in to purchase agricultural products directly. Farmers and fish producers are now urging the authorities to fulfill those commitments.

Exporting perishable goods to Europe also presents major logistical challenges, requiring long overland transport through Georgia, ferry crossings, and significantly higher transportation costs.

Mounting Losses for Armenia’s Agricultural Sector

The combined direct export losses for Armenia’s agricultural and aquaculture sectors this season are estimated at between $180 million and $200 million. When secondary effects-including idle processing facilities, logistical disruptions, and growing warehouse inventories-are taken into account, total losses across the agricultural sector could approach $350 million.

For some agricultural products, export volumes have reportedly fallen by as much as 70-80 percent. Fish producers alone could lose approximately $80 million in revenue after Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance suspended veterinary certification for exports to the Russian market.

For many Armenian producers, replacing decades-old commercial ties has proven far more difficult than expected. While hopes of expanding exports elsewhere remain, businesses continue to face significant economic and logistical obstacles before alternative markets can absorb the volumes that once went to Russia.