Armenia Suspends License of Russian Broadcaster Sputnik

Dec 21 2023

Russia's Embassy in Yerevan denounced Thursday the temporary suspension of Russian broadcaster Sputnik's local branch over "offensive" comments a presenter made about Armenia on air.

The commission responsible for television and radio announced late Wednesday that the license of Tospa, the broadcaster of Sputnik Armenia, was being suspended for 30 days after remarks by the Russian TV personality Tigran Keosayan in November.

His opinions do not befit what a "political commentator, presenter and citizen of another country" has the "moral right" to say, it said.

Keosayan also encouraged "illegal acts," the commission said without elaborating.

The pro-Kremlin presenter is married to Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of the RT broadcaster and a loyal supporter of President Vladimir Putin.

The Russian Embassy in Yerevan criticized the decision, saying the measure was being taken to push Armenia further from Russia.

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"This step cannot but look like a concession to those who are increasingly vociferous in favor of severing the long-standing, mutually beneficial and respectful allied relations between Russia and Armenia," the embassy said in a statement.

Sputnik is a state-run Russian media organization operating in several countries through radio channels or websites, and has been accused of spreading Kremlin "disinformation."

The European Union, Britain and Canada banned it shortly after Russia sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022.

In a separate case, the commission inflicted a fine of $1,200 on the channel for comments that "did not correspond to reality" and were likely "to cause panic" in Armenia.

The Caucasus country is a traditional Russian ally but relations have soured since its historic enemy Azerbaijan seized the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in September.

Yerevan says Moscow did not do enough to stop the lightning Azerbaijani offensive, where Baku seized territory it had not controlled for decades from Armenian separatists.

The Fall Of The Republic Of Artsakh


Dec 20 2023



On September 19th, Azerbaijan launched an intense military offensive in the contested Nagorno – Karabakh region, which killed over 200 ethnic Armenians and dozens of Azerbaijanis. After just 24 hours of fighting, a ceasefire was agreed upon between Armenian forces and the Azerbaijani military. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, separatist authorities announced that the break-away region would officially be incorporated into Azerbaijan on January 1st, 2024. After decades of Armenian defiance, the hopes for an independent Republic of Artsakh have finally ended. According to the BCC, approximately 100,000 Armenians have fled the region since the military operation and subsequent capitulation. While Baku has maintained that Armenians would be treated as equal citizens, the mass exodus indicates fears of ethnic cleansing. 

Although Armenian and Azerbaijani ethnic tensions have persisted for centuries, the current Nagorno – Karabakh dispute is a relic of Soviet occupation. In 1923, the Soviet Union established that Nagorno – Karabakh should be an autonomous region within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, despite the population being roughly 95 percent Armenian at the time. Whether intentional or not, Stalin’s odd land distribution increased the potential for ethnic violence following Armenian and Azerbaijani independence. According to the Council of Foreign Relations, the Republic of Artsakh was declared following a referendum in the region in 1991, which ultimately led to a three year war. After the death of roughly 30,000 people, a bilateral ceasefire was signed in 1994 and officially remained in effect until 2020. Despite international recognition of Nagorno – Karabakh as a part of Azerbaijan, the Republic of Artsakh remained a breakaway region for several decades due to the military and economic support of both Armenia and Russia. 

While Armenia initially gained territory in the 1991 conflict, the tide turned in Azerbaijan’s favor in the following decades. This was mainly driven by Azerbaijan’s superior alliances, largely created by their vast reserves of petroleum and liquified natural gas. One of Azerbaijan’s most important allies is Turkey, which has provided significant military and diplomatic support to the country. Azerbaijan’s supply of petroleum alongside their shared Turkic identity has solidified Turkey’s support for Baku. According to Reuters, 80 percent of Azerbaijan’s oil exports flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to Turkey, which strategically circumvents Armenia by passing through Georgia. Furthermore, Armenia and Turkey were already geopolitical rivals due to Ankara’s denial of the Armenian genocide in 1915. Many European countries, alongside the United States and Israel, have benefitted from Azerbaijan’s exports as well, effectively isolating Armenia from the world. 

Armenia’s main allies are limited to Russia and Iran, which both lack significant geopolitical clout at the moment. According to TRT World, Russia’s support for Armenia is derived from their shared Orthodox-Christian identity and Slavic heritage. Without Russia’s military and economic support, Armenia was unlikely to win the war in 1991. Armenia’s alliance with Iran is mainly derived from Tehran’s tensions with its Azerbaijani minority. Iran is home to over 12 million Azerbaijani’s, more than the population of Azerbaijan itself. Tehran does not want its own separatist movement, which is why it seeks to undermine Baku to decrease the probability of a unification movement of all Azerbaijani people. One way to do this is to support Armenia so that Baku’s attention is fixated on another matter. According to Modern Diplomacy, Iran has supplied Armenia with extensive weaponry, including 500 units of anti-tank missile systems. While these allies have been helpful to Armenia in the past, Russia and Iran have been more concerned with their own internal matters in recent years. 

Following the 1994 ceasefire, the state of Nagorno – Karabakh remained fairly stable with infrequent clashes occurring over the subsequent decades. However, emboldened by significant weapon imports from Turkey, Israel, and Belarus, Azerbaijan has become increasingly aggressive in the last decade. According to the Center for Eastern Studies, Azerbaijan launched a military operation known as the four days war in 2016, in which Baku enjoyed miniscule territorial gains. In September 2020, fighting once again broke out along the Azerbaijan-Nagorno Karabakh border, which saw the most intense violence since 1994. Lasting roughly six weeks, the Second Nagorno Karabakh war claimed thousands of lives before a peace deal was finally brokered by Russia on November 9th. Azerbaijan reclaimed the majority of its lost territory and Armenia only retained a small portion of the Karabakh region. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the peace deal established the Lachin corridor, which was a designated passage protected by Russian peacekeepers connecting Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh. 

In December 2022, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of using the Lachin Corridor to supply weapons to Nagorno Karabakh and subsequently blocked the transit line. Armenia denied the allegations and accused Azerbaijan of isolating the region for its own agenda. Whether the Armenians supplied weapons or not, the Lachin Corridor was a vital route for supplying essential resources such as food and medicine. According to the BBC, residents reported severe food shortages and human rights violations were thrown at Baku. However, Azerbaijan maintains that any supply shortages were the fault of the Armenians as they refused to accept Azerbaijani aid when offered. In any case, Nagorno Karabakh’s isolation combined with a weakened Russian ally meant the break-away region had little means of defending itself in the recent military operation. 

Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of Nagorno-Karabakh, signed a decree to dissolve the Republic of Artsakh and all of its institutions on January 1st, 2024. While this specific territorial dispute seems to be resolved for now, it remains to be seen what these developments mean for the Armenian diaspora and Armenian – Azerbaijani relations. According to the AP, Jeyhun Bayramov, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister, reaffirmed that all ethnic Armenians will be guaranteed full rights and freedoms. While these statements cannot be confirmed, the reality of the situation will become more apparent in the coming weeks. According to Aljazeera, a UN team of approximately a dozen people recently arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh. Although the majority of its citizens have already fled the region, this team will be able to assess the claims of the Azerbaijani government. 

While it is too early to assess the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, should the Azerbaijani government pursue a policy of ethnic cleansing there are various actions the international community could take. First, while Azerbaijan’s oil reserves gives it diplomatic leverage, it also makes its economy very dependent on exports. Should the international community want to retaliate against the Azerbaijani government for any reason, decreasing imports of Azerbaijan oil would greatly undermine Baku’s economy. Also, Azerbaijan relies completely on weapons imports from a few countries. This allows for significant leverage over the state should grave human rights atrocities be committed. 



A Russian ally’s purchase of French and Indian weapons is another sign Moscow is losing influence in its neighborhood

Business Insider
Dec 21 2023
  • Armenia has been ordering more weapons, turning to France and India for air-defense systems.
  • Armenia is a longtime ally of Russia, but it has leaned away from Moscow in recent years.
  • With its focus on Ukraine, Russia has offered Armenia little help in its conflicts with Azerbaijan.

In recent weeks, Armenia has ordered air-defense systems and radars from France and was reported to have ordered anti-drone systems from India.

Those orders come amid heightened tensions with neighboring Azerbaijan, with which Armenia has fought several conflicts, including a short clash in September that ended with Azerbaijan conquering the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, causing its 120,000 ethnic-Armenian residents to flee.

The acquisitions are notable not only for their timing but also because they show Armenia is taking tangible steps to lessen its dependency on military hardware from Russia, a longtime ally that has offered Yerevan little support against mounting pressure from Azerbaijan.

Armenia's six-week war with Azerbaijan in 2020 captured worldwide attention for Azerbaijan's use of aerial drones. At a press conference to announce the sale in October, France's defense minister said air defenses were "absolutely key" and that Paris was aiding Yerevan with sales of three Thales GM 200 radars and an agreement on the future delivery of short-range Mistral air-defense missiles.

"Armenia's choice to order air-defense systems from France is a significant one," James Rogers, an expert on drones and precision warfare, told Business Insider. "Not only does it highlight to Russia that Armenia has options when it comes to defense cooperation, but it marks a major leap forward in Armenia's attempts to modernize its military."

Reports in early November indicated Yerevan was also buying more weaponry from India, including Zen anti-drone systems, which are designed to detect and bring down enemy drones. Armenia previously bought four Indian-made Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers in 2022, the first foreign order of that system.

Nicholas Heras, the senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told Business Insider that Armenia was advancing its foreign and national security policies on two tracks.

"One track is to build defense alliances with more powerful outside actors in Eurasia, and the second track is to improve the Armenian military's ability to defend against Azeri airpower in tactical engagements," Heras said. "India, in particular, is a prized defense partner with Armenia because India has a large defense industry that can also arm and improve Russian weapons platforms which Armenia deploys."

Armenia's military arsenal has long been predominantly Russian, but Yerevan has attempted to change that as its relations with Moscow have soured, especially after its devastating defeat in the 2020 war, during which Azerbaijan used Israeli- and Turkish-made weapons.

Russia has failed to aid Armenia despite Yereven's membership in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. In addition to being tied down by the war in Ukraine, Russia is most likely irked by Armenia moving closer to Washington and the West under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has long questioned the value of CSTO membership.

"Armenia's partnership with Russia is at a low ebb, and Pashinyan is pushing forward, slowly but surely, to bring Armenia closer to NATO, including the prospect of normalizing Armenia's relations with Turkey," Heras said.

Heras added that over the past two years, the US had been sending "a strong signal" that it "would like to test out the prospect for a more strategic US-Armenian security relationship."

Washington and Yerevan seemed to demonstrate mutual interest in closer defense relations in September when Armenia hosted a bilateral exercise focused on training for peacekeeping operations.

Eighty-five US troops trained alongside 175 Armenia personnel during the drill, which was "a testament to our longstanding partnership with Armenia and builds upon decades of successful peacekeeping and security cooperation," the US Embassy in Armenia said in a statement.

Russia, predictably, opposed the exercise, and Yerevan has kept its distance since then. Pashinyan skipped the organization's summit in mid-November, a move Russia accused the West of orchestrating.

Armenia under Pashinyan has tried to move away from Russia "by building a web of strategic partnerships," Heras said. "Fundamentally, Pashinyan does not want to depend on Russia to ensure Armenia's territorial integrity and security, and his effort to build the relationship with the United States works toward this goal."

Acquiring weaponry from other countries serves a similar purpose, but Armenia's recent purchases also reflect the sensitivity of its international position.

The Mistral missile has a relatively short range of 4 miles, suggesting the sale is meant to bolster Armenia's arsenal but was made with potential political backlash in mind. Turkey has criticized French arms sales to Yerevan. (Azerbaijan has also criticized the recent French and Indian arms sales to Armenia.)

Rogers said that "range is important in war" and that it enabled strikes on a wider set of targets. "In order not to destabilize the region or risk an outbreak of hostilities, therefore, Armenia and France have agreed to these short-range yet effective air-defense systems."

Heras said that the main quandary facing Armenian foreign policy was it could not afford to sever ties with Russia despite recent tensions, but it also could not trust Russia to intervene on its side if there's another war with Azerbaijan. The need to strike a balance between Russia and new partners while bolstering its small military with limited resources complicates Armenia's task.

"Armenia needs to purchase weapons that improve its ability to pursue a 'porcupine strategy,'" making itself a more threatening target for Azerbaijan if the two countries go to war again, Heras said.

Buying French and Indian short-range air-defense weapons that could be used by small infantry units is "a potentially cost-effective way to impose higher costs on Azerbaijan's drone airpower," Heras added.

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist and columnist who writes about Middle East developments, military affairs, politics, and history. His articles have appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.


Armenia to purchase Indian Akash air defense systems in $720 Mn deal

Dec 21 2023
As reported by Zee Business on December 18, 2023, India is making preparations to export 15 Akash air defense systems to Armenia as part of a weapons agreement valued at approximately between 50 billion rupees ($600,521,000) and 60 billion rupees ($720,625,200). The delivery and deployment of these Akash air defense systems, manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), in Armenia are anticipated to take place over the next 4-5 years.

Armenia is presently in the process of modernizing its military, partly due to the conflict it experienced with Azerbaijan in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. For instance, Armenia has acquired from France Bastion 4×4 APCs, three Thales Ground Master 200 radars, a Mistral short-range air defense system, and night vision goggles from Safran. Armenia's other acquisitions from India encompass MArG 155 wheeled self-propelled howitzers, Pinaka MLRS, ATAGS 155mm towed guns, anti-tank missiles, and ZADS anti-drone systems. Furthermore, there have been sightings of a Chinese WM-80 MLRS within the Armenian Armed Forces.

The Akash air defense system, developed by the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is a short-range surface-to-air missile system primarily designed to safeguard vulnerable areas and critical installations against potential aerial threats. It is currently in active service with the Indian Armed Forces, with a total of 48 systems deployed as of 2022.

One of its notable features is its capability to engage multiple targets simultaneously in either Group Mode or Autonomous Mode. The system is equipped with Electronic Counter-Counter Measures (ECCM) capabilities, enabling it to counteract electronic deception systems that adversaries might employ.

The Akash missile system comprises various components, including launchers, missiles, a control center, an integrated mission guidance system, and C4I (command, control, communication, and intelligence) centers. Each missile battery is accompanied by a radar system known as Rajendra. The system is reported to be 96 percent indigenized, with an enhanced version offering a smaller footprint, 360° engagement capability, and advanced seekers.

In terms of specifications, the Akash Weapon System (AWS) has an operational range spanning from 4.5 kilometers to 25 kilometers and can engage targets at altitudes ranging from 100 meters up to 20 kilometers. It is designed for swift response, from target detection to neutralization.

The Akash Weapon System is characterized by its open system architecture, which allows for adaptability to various Air Defense environments. It is also known for its resistance to active and passive jamming, ensuring its effectiveness in challenging conditions. Additionally, the system features a secure mode of communication between combat elements and is self-sufficient in terms of electrical power, thanks to its built-in power sources. Its transportability by road and rail allows for rapid mobilization and deployment, further enhancing its operational flexibility. The system incorporates built-in safety features, including an Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) system, contributing to its overall reliability and effectiveness in air defense.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_december_2023_global_security_army_industry/armenia_to_purchase_indian_akash_air_defense_systems_in_$720_mn_deal.html

Azerbaijan Reaffirms Stance on Kashmir, Expresses Concern Over India-Armenia Defense Ties

bnn
HongKong – Dec 21 2023

By: Safak Costu

In an emphatic statement, Ashraf Shikhaliev, the former Azerbaijani ambassador to India, reiterated Azerbaijan’s unwavering position on the long-standing Kashmir issue. Shikhaliev stressed the need for a peaceful resolution, in accordance with international law and the resolutions of the United Nations Security Council. This stance, he underscored, has not wavered in the last 30 years.

Shikhaliev also shed light on the burgeoning defense ties between India and Armenia. He noted that since 2020, Indian state and private defense companies have started supplying Armenia with weapons. The arsenal includes radar systems, multiple rocket launch systems (MRLS), and ammunition. Media reports suggest Armenia’s interest in purchasing missiles and drones from India. These revelations have sparked a wave of concern.

Shikhaliev expressed apprehension that the sale of weapons to Armenia by the Indian government could potentially fuel revanchist forces in Yerevan. The added instability could jeopardize the already fragile peace in the region. He urged the Indian government to reconsider its arms sales to Armenia, cautioning about the potential aftermath.

On another front, Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, criticized the European Union’s role in the normalization of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. She accused the EU of having a primary objective of taking an anti-Russian stance, rather than settling and normalizing relations between the two nations or addressing the consequences of the longstanding crisis. She also questioned the sudden appearance and disappearance of Azerbaijan and Armenia from the EU’s list of countries supporting the extension of the European Magnitsky List.

No Prosecutions Following Pashinian’s Accusations in Armenian Land Seizure

bnn
HongKong – Dec 21 2023

By: Momen Zellmi

In a tense turn of events, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s allegations against officials, accusing their negligence for Azerbaijan’s seizure of agricultural lands from an Armenian border village last spring, have so far led to no prosecutions. The incident transpired as Azerbaijani forces concluded a redeployment in the Lachin district on March 30, creeping up to 300 meters into Armenian territory at five border locations near the village of Tegh.

This encroachment resulted in the loss of land that sparked escalated tensions, culminating in a skirmish on April 11. The confrontation led to a tragic outcome with at least seven soldiers losing their lives from both sides. In response to these events, Pashinian dismissed the commander of Armenia’s Border Guard Troops, Colonel Arman Maralchian, and criticized unnamed officials for not adhering to his instructions.

(Read Also: Tragic Loss of Azerbaijani Soldier Stirs Military Concerns Amidst Border Tensions)

This triggered an investigation for possible negligence by military officers. Yet, the Prosecutor-General’s Office has not charged anyone, and the investigation continues to unravel the truth. The opposition, however, squarely places the blame on Pashinian for the territorial losses. They accuse him of failing to fortify Armenia’s military post the 2020 war in Karabakh.

(Read Also: Explosive Device Found and Defused in Azerbaijani School)

Pashinian rebuts these allegations, attributing the country’s security challenges to the policies of previous administrations. As the investigation continues, the nation waits for the truth to surface and justice to be served.

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/azerbaijan/no-prosecutions-following-pashinians-accusations-in-armenian-land-seizure/

Russia to revamp Armenia’s nuclear power plant

eurasianet
Dec 21 2023
Lilit Shahverdyan 

On December 15, Armenia and Russia signed a contract on modernizing and extending the lifespan of Armenia's Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) until 2036. 

The renovations will be carried out by Rustatom Service JSC, a subsidiary of Russia's state nuclear energy company Rosatom, and will cost the Armenian government $65 million.

The deal is another reminder of the vast extent of Russia's influence over Armenia's infrastructure and economy amid Yerevan's efforts to politically distance itself from Moscow. 

Metsamor plays a significant role in Armenia's energy landscape, contributing an average of 31 percent of the country's yearly electricity output.

It is the only nuclear power plant in the South Caucasus, located about 30 kilometers west of Yerevan. It consists of two units, Metsamor-1 and Metsamor-2, activated in 1976 and 1980, respectively. In 1989, the plant was shut down due to safety concerns after the devastating earthquake in Spitak in December 1988. In 1995, Unit 2 was reactivated due to energy shortages in Armenia, and since then has been the only nuclear unit in operation.

In 2021, Rosatom repaired and upgraded the NPP to operate until 2026. The modernization was implemented under a loan agreement signed between Armenia and Russia in 2015. 

Under the new agreement, Rosatom will help to extend the lifespan of Unit-2 until 2036, after which it will be decommissioned. 

The upgrading operations will be financed in the form of a "budgetary loan" provided by the Armenian government to the state-owned plant's management, which will subsequently enter into a contract with Rosatom. In 2023-2026, Rosatom will modernize Metsamor NPP in close cooperation with Armenian specialists.

As the reactor will be decommissioned in 2036, the Armenian government intends to build a new nuclear unit at Metsamor. Different estimates assert that the construction of a new nuclear power plant or unit will take 6-10 years, which means that construction works must be started in the next couple years.

It appears those construction works will be implemented by Rosatom, judging by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk's remark on December 15 that negotiations were underway regarding new nuclear power units. 

Overwhelming energy dependence on Russia 

The new Metsamor deal comes at a complicated time in Armenian-Russian relations. Resentment against Russia is high in Armenia Azerbaijan's military takeover – apparently with Moscow's blessing – of Nagorno-Karabakh in September.

Despite persistent efforts to diversify its political alliances and build closer ties with the West, Armenia's economy remains overwhelmingly dependent on Russia. Russia is Armenia's largest trade partner, and Armenia is a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). 

And then there's energy dependence.

Russia supplies 87.5 percent of Armenia's gas (the rest comes from Iran), and Gazprom Armenia, the local subsidiary of the Russian state gas company, owns all of the country's gas distribution infrastructure. 

Armenia says it generates 98 percent of the electricity it needs but that claim hides even more dependence. 

That electricity is generated by hydropower and thermal plants and by the Metsamor NPP. Metsamor is entirely fueled by uranium imported from Russia while thermal power plants depend on (largely Russian) natural gas. 

"Our self-sufficiency depends on the countries from which we import the gas and the uranium that operate our thermal and nuclear power plants. And when our government officials speak about our self-sufficiency, why do they forget to say how we maintain it?" energy expert Armen Manvelyan told the Institute of War and Peace Reporting (IWPR), stressing that over 70 percent of Armenia's electricity depends on Russia.

And Armenia's energy demands keep growing. In 2022, Armenia's imports of Russian natural gas increased by 6.1 percent from the previous year, reaching 2.6 billion cubic meters. 

Iran's ambassador to Armenia, Mehdi Sobhani, recently mused about the possibility of tripling or quadrupling Tehran's gas exports to Armenia. But such a move would require Russia's consent and facilitation, as Gazprom controls the gas pipeline to Iran.

Armenia is exploring the possibility of obtaining small modular nuclear reactors from the United States, France, and South Korea as part of its efforts to diversify its energy sector. But so far concrete progress on this front remains elusive.

Lilit Shahverdyan is a journalist based in Stepanakert. 

New masters in the South Caucasus

Dec 21 2023

Armenia lost Nagorno-Karabakh, but the regional ambitions of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey may mean that the worst is not over for Yerevan.

  • Turkey and Azerbaijan are the undisputed leaders in the South Caucasus
  • Armenia is vulnerable after losing the 35-year conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh
  • The Kremlin’s regional influence also took a hit over Yerevan’s swift defeat

Following the one-day war fought between Armenia and Azerbaijan on September 19, Turkey and Azerbaijan are now in full control of geopolitics in the South Caucasus. The focus of the emerging axis between Ankara and Baku had been to once and for all resolve the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Following 35 years of intermittent warfare, that objective has now been achieved, at the great expense of Armenia – and of Russia.

The self-styled Republic of Artsakh will soon cease to exist. Unilaterally established by ethnic Armenians in the autonomous Azeri province of Nagorno-Karabakh, it was the linchpin of Russian hegemony in the region. Playing both sides, the Kremlin ensured that it had the final say in regional developments. The one-day war produced two important results: all ethnic Armenians residing in Artsakh were forced to flee, and Azerbaijan is now in full control of its own, internationally recognized territory.

This fundamentally alters the security architecture in the geopolitically important South Caucasus region. As the scope for outside mediation will now be defined by Ankara and Baku, there will be no more outside “peace plans.”

Following the cease-fire agreement in 1994, Armenia assumed the role of protector for the Republic of Artsakh, and it retained control of those Azeri territories between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia proper that it had seized by military force. Although Artsakh was not formally recognized even by Yerevan, it represented a substantial de facto enlargement of the territory of Armenia.

Backed by Turkey, Azerbaijan executed its counteroffensive in three stages. The 44-day war in the fall of 2020 resulted in Baku regaining control over a large part of Nagorno-Karabakh and in a rout of the bulk of the Armenian forces from the surrounding areas. Russian intervention prevented a total collapse of the Armenian side, and 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were deployed to ensure continued free passage between Artsakh and Armenia. The second stage was a blockade that made life for the remaining Armenians inside Artsakh very difficult. The third and final stage was the assault on September 19, which ended in swift capitulation by the Armenian forces.

Turkey and Azerbaijan are the unequivocal winners. They will now be able to dictate the conditions for what will follow. The biggest loser in the short term is Armenia. With a population of 2.8 million, it has been forced to accept 100,000 refugees and it lives under the threat of an Azeri invasion. Although both sides have offered to recognize the territorial integrity of the other side, Baku maintains strategic ambiguity by referring to remaining Azeri exclaves inside Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan.”

Having long believed it was protected by Russia, Armenia has started currying favor with the West. It has not only reneged on a pledge to host drills of the Russian-led Common Security Treaty Organization. On October 3, it crossed the Rubicon by opting to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. That means that if President Vladimir Putin were to visit Armenia, he would risk being arrested. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov branded this move as “extremely hostile” and threatened there would be the “most negative consequences.” But the only consequence to date has been that Russian customs is making trouble for imports of Armenian brandy.

These moves indicate how much Russia has lost. Its peacekeepers are getting ready to leave Azerbaijan. They were subjected to intermittent shelling of their bases that destroyed equipment and the killing of several Russian soldiers, including a senior Russian commander. No escalation followed. The Kremlin is so dependent on its transport route to Iran that it was forced to accept this humiliation, or risk antagonizing Azerbaijan.

Russia has been informed that once its peacekeepers have left Azeri territory, they will not be welcome in Armenia, and it is likely that in addition it will be asked to vacate its remaining bases on Armenian territory.

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Armenia was home to around 10,000 Russian troops. About half were stationed at the 102nd military base at Gyumri, the second-largest city in Armenia. Located near Turkey, it was the largest Russian military base abroad. Additional garrisons have been at Zvartnots airport and at Erebuni military base. Russian border guards have also patrolled the borders with Turkey and Iran. Given that many of these troops have been sent to the “meat grinder” in Ukraine, it is not clear how many are left. Yet, being called on to leave completely would be a major setback.

The immediate future will be marked by efforts to finalize a formal peace treaty. This process has long been pursued along two tracks, one with Russia and the other with the European Union and the United States. Now it is up to Azerbaijan to decide both the terms of a treaty and where it is to be signed. Given that the Armenian population has been displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, and that both sides have offered to recognize the territorial integrity of the other, there is not much left to talk about. Yet, the outcome is shrouded in uncertainty.

On October 5, the two sides were to meet at Granada, Spain, together with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council President Charles Michel. Although Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan did show up, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev did not. In a clear snub to France, and to aspiring Western mediators, he hinted at dissatisfaction with President Macron’s pro-Armenian statements and talk about French arms sales.

A few days later, the two sides were to meet at a summit meeting of the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), held in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan. This time President Aliyev showed up, but in a clear snub to Russia, Prime Minister Pashinyan did not.

The likely venue is Georgia. In late 2021, it refused to take part in a 3+3 format, where the three regional powers Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia were to meet with the three outside powers Iran, Russia and Turkey. Tbilisi argued that negotiations should be left to the three regional powers. On October 8, 2023, President Aliyev held a meeting in Tbilisi with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. On October 26, 2023, at the 4th Tbilisi Silk Road Forum in Tbilisi, prime ministers from regional powers Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, also in Tbilisi, met and Prime Minister Pashinyan proclaimed a peace deal would be signed “in the coming months.”

Given that Turkey is now emerging as a regional hegemon, the future will be shaped by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strategic priorities in positioning Turkey as a regional energy hub and in securing its access to markets in Central Asia without passing through Iran. Both highlight relations with Azerbaijan, which in turn means that opening the Zangezur corridor to link Azerbaijan proper with its Nakhichevan exclave, crossing Armenian territory, becomes a Turkish priority.

President Erdogan has played a deliberately opaque game. First, he wanted a seamless corridor that would be beyond Armenian sovereignty. Next, he suggested that Armenian checkpoints would be accepted, and the latest is that a corridor may be drawn to Nakhchivan via Iran (pandering to Tehran’s strong objections to a pan-Turkic corridor). In mid-October, he suggested that “If Armenia honors its commitments, especially the opening of the Zangezur corridor, then Turkey will step-by-step normalize relations.”

What is quite clear is that Russia will have no further role to play. According to the trilateral agreement that was signed in 2020, envisioning an opening of Zangezur, it was stipulated that Russian border guards would be in control. In a recent statement, however, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that “no third power should have control over any territory of Armenia.”

Georgia in contrast will play a vital role. Apart from being a possible venue for peace talks, it is of great strategic relevance to Russia. As the Ukrainian armed forces are pushing the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of its bases on Crimea, the Kremlin needs to find an alternative. Given that its port at Novorossiysk is too small, it is looking at a port in Abkhazia, which is a de facto Russian vassal state. While Georgia cries foul in public, the current government may play along.

Three very different scenarios may play out. One is that Azerbaijan acts on its implied threats and takes further military action against Armenia. It has already launched a series of cross-border attacks that have resulted in the occupation of about 215 square kilometers of Armenian land. The rhetoric on “Western Azerbaijan” is driven by the legacy of eight exclaves inside Armenia that, during Soviet times, were populated by ethnic Azeris. Two of those – Yukhari Askipara and Barkhudari – are located on the Yerevan-Tbilisi highway, which could be cut off.

What makes this scenario unlikely is that it would lead to powerful reactions from the West. The United States has sent strong signals warning against an invasion of Armenia, and Baku must consider the heavy investment it has made in being a reliable supplier of energy to Europe. The purpose in keeping the threat alive is to add pressure on the government in Yerevan.

A radically different scenario envisions a decisive intervention by the EU and the U.S. to bring the region closer to the West. The track record of such ambitions has not been good. When Brussels launched its European Neighborhood Policy, Georgia was the only country in the South Caucasus to show interest. Azerbaijan preferred to tread its own middle road and Armenia felt safe with Russia. Since then, the increasingly pro-Russian Georgian government has moved away from the EU. When Moldova and Ukraine were offered candidate status for membership, Georgia was put on hold.

This is where Armenia could – paradoxically – emerge as a winner out of the debacle in Nagorno-Karabakh. Brussels could decide to upgrade the Armenian Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement to the level of association agreements it has awarded Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. It is delivering humanitarian support and in talks about macro-financial assistance similar to what it offers Moldova and Ukraine.

The big divide will be the 2024 parliamentary elections in Georgia. If the opposition wins, it may join hands with Armenia in a bid to approach the West, and if both Armenia and Georgia can be brought into the Western community, it will shine a light on the continuing Russian occupation of the Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

While both these scenarios are possible, the likeliest is that the incumbent Georgian government succeeds in winning the upcoming elections. All the young Russians who have fled there to avoid being sent to the war in Ukraine have brought with them both financial resources and links back to Russia. It is also important that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban paid a recent visit to Tbilisi to show support from within the EU. This axis of authoritarian leaders will ensure that Russia retains at least some influence in the South Caucasus, including a green light for a naval base in Abkhazia.

These developments will further weaken the position of Armenia. In the eyes of Brussels, Yerevan’s sudden resolve to make a push for inclusion into the community of the West is undermined by the fact that it remains a member of both the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union. Adding its role in helping Russia circumvent sanctions, Brussels will be hesitant to make any moves that may antagonize Azerbaijan.

Left to its own devices, Armenia will be vulnerable to pressures from Azerbaijan and Turkey that range from vague threats of a full-scale Azeri invasion to ambiguous statements from Turkey about the Zangezur corridor. The fact that Turkey and Azerbaijan recently held military drills near Armenia and that they have already begun work on a gas pipeline from Turkey to Nakhchivan suggests that the goal remains to force Armenia into accepting a de facto loss of sovereignty over its southern border.


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EGT Digital in partnership with Vbet to bring unforgettable gaming experience to Armenian players

Dec 21 2023

Published

  

on

 

By

 George Miller


EGT Digital is proud to announce its partnership with the leading Armenian betting site www.vbet.am. Now its customers can enjoy Bell Link, High Cash, Clover Chance and Single Progressive Jackpot, containing more than 90 top-performing slot titles. At players’ disposal is also the multiplayer game xRide, in which winnings are generated by increasing multiplier and the participants can track in real-time the results of everyone else playing at the moment.

“We are very happy that Vbet are now among our partners,” shared Tsvetomira Drumeva, Head of Sales at EGT Digital. “The good results of our joint work are already a fact and I am confident that this is only the beginning of a stable long-term collaboration, thanks to which we will provide local players with access to first-class gaming content.”

Ruzanna Elchyan, Head of Gaming at Vbet, also expressed her positive expectations about the cooperation with the Bulgarian provider: “EGT Digital’s games have been demonstrating an excellent performance so far and are our customers’ favorites. I believe that they will attract many new visitors to our site and will facilitate the strengthening of our leadership market positions.”

https://europeangaming.eu/portal/latest-news/2023/12/21/149776/egt-digital-in-partnership-with-vbet-to-bring-unforgettable-gaming-experience-to-armenian-players/

MPO to reinstate principal conductor after fraud charges dropped

Dec 21 2023

Maestro Sergey Smbatyan had been arrested in Armenia

The Malta Philharmonic Orchestra will be reinstating principal conductor Maestro Sergey Smbatyan to his former position after he was cleared in Armenia of alleged fraud.

Sergey Smbatyan was suspended from his role in the orchestra in July after international media reported that he and his father – a former Armenian ambassador to Israel – were arrested on charges related to real estate fraud in their native Armenia. 

In a statement, Smbatyan’s lawyers last month said that the Armenian prosecutor’s office had decided to stop pursuing the charges against him.

The Malta Philharmonic Orchestra said it looks forward to continuing its mission with enhanced vigour as Malta’s foremost musical institution.