Armenia may reconsider the terms of providing Russia with a number of resources and services that were previously free, stated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, commenting on the opposition’s statements about a possible tariff increase in the context of the situation surrounding the South Caucasus Railway.
YEREVAN, July 30. /ARKA/. Armenia may reconsider the terms of providing Russia with a number of resources and services that were previously free, stated Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, commenting on the opposition’s statements about a possible tariff increase in the context of the situation surrounding the South Caucasus Railway.
“Armenia also has things that were previously provided free of charge, but now the country may demand $2 billion per year for them,” Pashinyan said at a briefing on Thursday. He admitted that this could also apply to the railway issue, but refrained from giving details.
The Prime Minister emphasized that the railway belongs to Armenia and the country should be able to use it as it sees fit.
Since 2008, South Caucasus Railway CJSC (SCR), a subsidiary of Russian Railways, has been the concessionaire for the Armenian railway for a period of 30 years. “Our position remains unchanged: the railway is our property, and Armenia must be able to use it as it sees fit. There is no alternative. This issue must be resolved,” he stated.
According to Pashinyan, Armenia has the right to use any legal means to resolve issues related to the South Caucasus Railway concession, including arbitration.
At the same time, he noted that Yerevan expects to resolve the issue in a friendly manner and will continue dialogue with the Russian side. Pashinyan also stated that the railway was not discussed during his conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 27. On Armenia’s plans for the railway
In February 2026, Pashinyan did not rule out the possibility of Russia transferring management rights to the Armenian railway to another country friendly to both Armenia and Russia, specifically Qatar, the UAE, or Kazakhstan.
He also stated that, within the framework of the TRIPP project, several countries are proposing to establish a railway connection between Nakhchivan and the mainland of Azerbaijan, bypassing Armenia, pointing out that the Armenian railway is managed by a Russian company.
According to him, this is causing “Armenia to lose its competitive advantage.”
Businessman Nikolay Vinitsky, who holds citizenship of both Belarus and Russia, has informed the Armenian authorities of his intention to apply to international investment arbitration. He claims that the Armenian authorities violated his rights as an investor and caused damage to his economic interests, Reform.news writes .
According to Iveta Tanayan, press secretary of the opposition “Prosperous Armenia” party, on July 27, Vinitsky sent an official notice of an investment dispute to the Armenian government. It is based on agreements on mutual protection of investments between Armenia and Belarus, Armenia and Russia, as well as on the provisions of the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union. Two days later, the Armenian side confirmed receipt of the document.
The businessman claims that his rights were violated in connection with events surrounding four Armenian enterprises: Araratcement, Multi Group Concern, Multi Wellness Center, and the Yerevan Brandy-Wine-Vodka Factory “Ararat”. According to him, the actions of the Armenian authorities led to the de facto expropriation of investments, and also significantly complicated the management and operation of these companies.
In his statement, Vinitsky claims that starting from the period before and after the parliamentary elections in Armenia in June 2026, state bodies took unsubstantiated, arbitrary, and discriminatory measures of a political nature that violated international guarantees of investment protection.
He also stated that his business partner, chairman of the “Prosperous Armenia” party Gagik Tsarukyan, as well as the heads of a number of enterprises, were arrested, which, in his opinion, effectively paralyzed the work of these companies.
Vinitsky called on the Armenian authorities to refrain from further interference in the activities of the enterprises, return control over them to legitimate shareholders, and ensure the possibility of normal operation without state pressure.
If the parties fail to settle the dispute through negotiations, the businessman intends to initiate international investment arbitration and demand compensation for the damage caused. According to him, this could be one of the first cases in which investment protection mechanisms provided for by the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union will be used against Armenia.
Gagik Tsarukyan is known for his close contacts with Alexander Lukashenka. He has repeatedly called him his friend. The Embassy of Belarus in Armenia is located near Tsarukyan’s residence in the village of Arinj near Yerevan. In 2024, this figure was visited by the Chairman of the National Olympic Committee of Belarus Viktor Lukashenka, and in 2025, with the assistance of Tsarukyan, Armenian blogger Bella (Roza Babakhanyan), who was detained in Belarus, was released.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that his country seeks to develop relations not only with Russia but also with other countries. He made these remarks in response to comments by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who allegedly claimed that “nobody needs Armenia.”
According to the prime minister, he is responsible for relations between Armenia and Russia, but “Armenian-Russian relations” as a broader concept have a different meaning. Pashinyan noted that the main problem in relations between Yerevan and Moscow lies in Armenia’s desire to have alternative partners.
“Armenia has decided to have alternatives. Previously, Armenia did not have any—not only economically, but also politically,” he said.
He emphasized that Armenia has recently signed strategic partnership agreements with a number of countries, including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and France.
According to Pashinyan, Russia views this as a problem due to its desire for “exclusivity” in relations.
“Either these relations are exclusive, or they shouldn’t exist at all. We do not accept this approach. We say: relations are not exclusive, but they must exist,” stated the head of the Armenian government.
Pashinyan also criticized the notion that Armenia is allegedly considered a “bad partner” due to problems in its relations with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
He cited the events of 2022, when, according to him, the CSTO failed to fulfill its functions, as well as the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russian peacekeepers, in his view, failed to carry out their assigned tasks.
“What was so bad about the Republic of Armenia? What did Armenia do? Who did it harm?” Pashinyan asked.
He also responded to Lukashenko’s remarks that Armenia was supposedly not needed by other countries.
“Armenia is needed by China, the United States, the European Union, Iran, Georgia, France, Poland, Germany, and the United Kingdom. And all of these partners are just as necessary to Armenia,” the prime minister emphasized.
In recent years, relations between Armenia and Russia have deteriorated significantly. Yerevan has repeatedly stated the need to diversify its foreign policy and strengthen cooperation with the West.
Pashinyan made this statement on July 30 during a briefing following a meeting of the Armenian government, according to Panorama.am.
As a reminder, Pashinyan stated that the trade conflict with Russia could mark the beginning of the end for the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Starting July 27, Russia will ban imports of dairy products from Armenia. The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance of the Russian Federation (Rosselkhoznadzor) attributed this to alleged violations discovered during inspections of Armenian dairy processing plants.
Armenia has denied Russia’sclaimsthat its dairy products are unsafe.
Tehran, IRNA — Iranian and Armenian officials, in a meeting on ways to develop road transport cooperation between the two neighboring countries, have agreed that the full activation of the Iran–Armenia–Georgia corridor can significantly increase trade and play a decisive role in the regional supply chain.
The meeting, in line with the regional transport diplomacy, was held in the presence of Armen Simonyan, Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure of the Republic of Armenia, and Reza Akbari, Deputy Minister of Roads and Urban Development and Head of Iran Road Maintenance and Transport Organization, on Wednesday evening.
During the talks that were also attended by representatives of the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, the two sides deliberated on ways to develop road transport cooperation, emphasizing their firm determination to strengthen transit infrastructure and remove existing obstacles.
Akbari said a comprehensive draft of the memorandum of understanding has been prepared based on ministerial-level meetings, with the focus being on areas such as infrastructure development, removing obstacles to border traffic, reducing or eliminating tolls, and increasing the capacity of transit fleets through Iranian and Armenian territories.
Emphasizing the high capacity of Iran’s trade exchanges with neighboring countries, he noted that the Iran-Armenia-Georgia corridor can further boost the regional trade connectivity.
For her part, the Armenian deputy minister, while welcoming the expansion of economic and transportation cooperation with Iran, announced the progress in infrastructure projects.
Ghalechyan stressed that transit infrastructure and other measures being taken by Armenia would play an effective role in reducing drivers’ problems, facilitating transit fleets, and improving border logistics.
She expressed hope that the future specialized meeting between the officials of the two sides would carefully review the proposed items in the memorandum of understanding, for operational strategies and developing bilateral cooperation.
Ask most Americans where Armenia is, and depending on which part of the country you’re in, you’re just as likely to hear “Los Angeles” instead of “South Caucasus.” That answer wouldn’t be entirely wrong—roughly a quarter of a million Armenians call the West Coast city home, one of the largest diaspora communities anywhere outside Armenia itself.
But this week, Armenia’s ambassador to the United States, Narek Mkrtchyan, sat down with Michael Doran at the Hudson Institute for a conversation on U.S.-Armenia relations—much of it centered on what the ambassador called the “real Armenia.”
That phrase isn’t a geography lesson, and it doesn’t point to some second, imaginary Armenia hiding elsewhere. It refers to the governing ideology now in power in Yerevan, and it matters for two reasons: it explains the shape of Armenia’s new relationship with Washington, and it signals where the country is headed with its neighbors.What Yerevanwants
What Yerevan actually wants?
The “Real Armenia” ideology, associated with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, prioritizes the country’s internationally recognized borders and state institutions over what Mkrtchyan called “historical or utopian aspirations.”
This approach is central to the current administration’s vision for national development and regional stability.
Since the 2018 Velvet Revolution, Yerevan has pursued diversification in both foreign and economic policy, without breaking from Moscow but building parallel ties to transatlantic partners: civil nuclear energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and now a comprehensive strategic partnership with Washington.
This includes a new “comprehensive strategic partnership” with the U.S., evidenced by cooperation in fields like civil nuclear energy, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence, notably the establishment of a major AI factory in Armenia.
Pashinyan didn’t announce this shift from a podium. He toured the country, village by village, making the case directly to citizens rather than to the diaspora abroad. Mkrtchyan described it as a deliberate choice: “he should start that historic conversation with the fellow Armenians.” The transformation is significant enough that officials in Yerevan sometimes call it “the fourth republic of Armenia.”Diplomats will frame it however they like, but the pivot from “historical” to “real” Armenia followed defeat, not epiphany. The 2020 war and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh forced Yerevan to abandon a foreign policy built on unresolved territorial claims, and build a new one around the borders it actually controls.
Yet not everyone in Yerevan is buying pragmatism. The Armenian diaspora, the Apostolic Church, and opposition parties have accused the government of trading national memory for a peace signed under duress, and of compromising identity for a treaty Baku effectively dictated.
Cutting out the middlemen
The normalization process with Azerbaijan and Türkiye rests on a slogan Mkrtchyan repeated more than once: “there is no prosperity without peace.” The underlying initiative, Crossroads of Peace, aims to turn Armenia from a battlefield into a transit hub for trade and communication between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Europe.What makes the process unusual is who’s missing from it. Both Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev chose direct, bilateral negotiations over international mediation, holding rounds in Moscow, Brussels, and Washington on a rotating basis, culminating in the Washington Declaration of August 2025, co-signed at the White House and witnessed by President Trump.
Both governments have since appointed special envoys to negotiate normalization and the reopening of the Türkiye-Armenia border, a process Mkrtchyan says continues alongside, not instead of, the Azerbaijan track.
The TRIP project: A 49-year American bet
TRIP, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, is the bilateral vehicle carrying most of this forward. It’s a connectivity corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, framed by Yerevan as part of a wider supply chain running from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to Europe.The commitment is built to outlast any single administration. As Mkrtchyan put it, the TRIP Development Company, the joint venture managing the project, “it’s for 49 years.” Armenia retains jurisdiction over customs, policing, and emergency response along the corridor, with Washington as a partner rather than an operator.
The State Department has since stood up a TRIP Enterprise Fund with $200 million in initial capital, meant to draw private investment into the corridor and adjacent projects across Central Asia.
Chips, nukes, and balancing: The realist’s dilemma
The same day the Washington Declaration was signed, both governments also signed a memorandum on AI and semiconductor cooperation.
Weeks later, Firebird AI, an Armenian-American company, received U.S. Commerce Department approval to build one of the region’s largest AI data centers: a second-phase investment worth $4 billion, running on tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs. The opening ceremony is scheduled for Aug. 8.Though the same company has since signed a separate $10 billion agreement with Kazakhstan, also built around Nvidia chips, suggesting Yerevan’s deal was a template rather than a one-off.
The partnership extends past chips: a civil nuclear energy agreement with an eye toward small modular reactors, a critical minerals partnership, and an upgraded Strategic Partnership Charter that formally moves the relationship from assistance to something closer to a joint venture.
Asked why American officials were surprised Armenia signed on to semiconductor cooperation at all, Mkrtchyan had a one-line answer, delivered with a straight face: “Armenians have big brains.”
That confidence walks on a tightrope next to Armenia’s other commitments. The TRIP corridor runs a few meters from the Iranian border, Yerevan remains inside the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, and Russian troops still sit on Armenian soil. Mkrtchyan insists none of this is directed against Moscow or Tehran, just diversification. Whether Moscow reads it the same way is a separate question.Pashinyan’s party won reelection in June, campaigning on a promise to “take care of the peace and protect the peace.” An election win is proof Armenians will tolerate the “real Armenia” strategy.
Whether it delivers the security and prosperity it promises, while Yerevan keeps one foot in Washington’s orbit and the other in Moscow’s, is still a bet in progress.
30 July 2026 (Updated: about 7 hours ago)•2 min read
In a first in Armenia’s modern history, Catholicos Karekin II, the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, will go to court to face criminal charges. The case concerns the dismissal of Bishop Gevorg Saroyan, with the authorities accusing Karekin II and other church officials of refusing to reinstate Saroyan.
According to the independent media outlet Civilnet, five other senior church officials are to stand trial alongside Karekin II on charges of deliberately ‘obstructing the enforcement of a lawful court decision’ through ‘abuse of power’.
Those include Archbishop Nathan Hovhannisyan, Archbishop Haykazun Najaryan, Bishop Vahan Hovhannesyan, Bishop Edgar Hakobyan, and Bishop Artur Hakobyan. According to Civilnet, Karekin II and the bishops have also been placed under a travel ban.
Saroyan was among a number of Church figures to have expressed support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in his conflict with the Church and Karekin II. He had publicly supported Pashinyan’s Church reform agenda, and was dismissed in January.
On his dismissal, the Church cited Saroyan’s ‘abuse of office, failure to fulfil the duties incumbent upon the Primate, as well as instances of coercion and pressure exercised against the clergy of the diocese’. In response, Saroyan dismissed the Church’s claims, and instead accused Karekin II of possessing compromising material on all members of the clergy.
A court in Armenia ordered the Church to reinstate Saroyan the same month he was dismissed.
Armenian court rules Pashinyan-linked bishop be reinstated following dismissal
The authorities barred Karekin II from leaving the country in February, but struck down the travel ban two months later in April.
Relations between the Church and Pashinyan’s government have been tense since May 2025, after Pashinyan criticised Church leadership for failing to properly maintain churches across the country. As accusations against the Church, and specifically against Karekin II, continued to grow, Pashinyan gradually made clear that he was seeking to oust the Catholicos.
Nikol Pashinyan says gov’t to resign on Sunday based on constitution, after which Armenia’s president will appoint candidate elected by parliamentary majority as prime minister
Burc Eruygur
30 July 2026•Update: 30 July 2026
İSTANBUL
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Thursday said that his government held its final meeting prior to resigning as part of a procedure following the formation of the country’s ninth convocation of parliament following its June election.
Following a Cabinet meeting, Pashinyan noted that they will be resigning on Sunday based on the country’s constitution, after which President Vahagn Khachaturyan will appoint the candidate elected by the parliamentary majority as prime minister, according to Russian state news agency Tass.
“Therefore, this is the last time we meet in this composition,” Pashinyan was quoted as saying, adding that several Cabinet members will continue their work in a different capacity, as members of the legislature.
The South Caucasus nation held a parliamentary election on June 7 to elect members of the ninth convocation of the National Assembly, Armenia’s parliament.
According to the results, Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party won 49.74% of the vote, while the Strong Armenia party, led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, received 23.27%. The Armenia Alliance of former President Robert Kocharyan garnered 9.9%.
Nearly 1.47 million of Armenia’s approximately 2.5 million eligible voters cast ballots at 2,005 polling stations nationwide, resulting in a turnout of about 59%.
Sixteen political parties and two political alliances participated in the election.
Pashinyan named the condition for a referendum on joining the EU
To hold a referendum on the choice between the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union, it is necessary to at least submit an application for EU membership, said Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan today. Restrictions on supplies from Armenia could lead to the collapse of the EAEU, he noted.
As reported by “Caucasian Knot”, the bans on the import of Armenian products into Russia contradict the agreements between the two countries, Nikol Pashinyan reminded in a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin. The latter, in turn, insisted on holding a referendum in Armenia on joining the EU.
Since May 22, the Rosselkhoznadzor has been gradually introducing restrictions on the import of Armenian products: flowers, fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, greens, and strawberries. In addition, the import of all batches of Armenian mineral water “Jermuk” and several cognacs and wines, fish, has been halted. Since June, the ban has been extended to fresh grapes and stone fruits, including cherries and sweet cherries, as well as potatoes, eggplants, pome fruits, and dried fruits. On July 24, the agency announced a new ban on the import of dairy products from Armenia.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, commenting on the phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stated that the restrictions on the supply of Armenian goods to Russia indicate a de facto “paralysis” of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
“Now everyone states that this problem concerns Armenia, but the problem is not in Armenia — it is a problem of the EAEU. It turns out that the Eurasian Economic Union is paralyzed and not functioning. If this issue is not resolved quickly, let me suggest that this will be the beginning of the end of the EAEU,” he is quoted by Armenpress.
At the same time, the Prime Minister excluded that Yerevan is considering the possibility of an accelerated exit from the Eurasian Economic Union.
“No, we do not have such a plan,” Armenia Today quotes him.
Pashinyan also touched on the prospect of Armenia joining the European Union. According to the Prime Minister, a referendum is impossible without a specific subject of voting. Therefore, before it is held, Armenia must at least officially submit an application for EU membership.
“I clearly told the President of the Russian Federation that this referendum cannot take place without its subject. Therefore, before holding the referendum, we must at least submit an application for membership in the European Union,” Pashinyan said.
The Prime Minister also reported that Putin has not yet congratulated him on his victory in the parliamentary elections in Armenia.
“Caucasian Knot” also reported that Nikol Pashinyan visited Yekaterinburg on July 6, where he met with the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Mikhail Mishustin. Armenia cannot sever economic ties with Russia and the EAEU, but has not eliminated the distrust between Yerevan and Moscow against the backdrop of the rhetoric of the Armenian authorities about the country’s accession to the European Union, analysts noted, commenting on this trip.
The restrictions on imports from Armenia were introduced by Russia before the parliamentary elections that took place on June 7, in which pro-Russian forces also participated. The “Civil Contract” party, led by the current Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan, won the elections to the country’s parliament. Commenting on its victory, Pashinyan stated that the three-headed party of war has been defeated (referring to the “Strong Armenia” bloc, the “Armenia” bloc, and the “Prosperous Armenia” party).
Translated automatically via OpenAI from class=”gmail_default” st1yle=”font-family:tahoma,sans-serif”> Source: class=”gmail_default” st1yle=”font-family:tahoma,sans-serif”>
Russian blogger Nadezhda Pirozhkova has been charged with hate speech after she published a video complaining about how she was splashed unwillingly during Armenia’s Vardavar water festival while calling the festival itself ‘aggressive’ and referring to Armenians as being ‘rat-like’. The charges were reported by the Russian-language Polish media outlet Vot Tak on Wednesday, citing comments from Armenia’s Investigative Committee.
Vardavar is a national holiday in Armenia connected to the country’s Apostolic Church. The key manner of celebrating the holiday is by splashing others with water in the street — including total strangers.
Pirozhkova, who apparently has lived in Armenia since 2025, had published a video on social media taken during the festival earlier in July, which contained clips of her complaining about being splashed even as she tells passersby she does not want to be involved in the holiday.
She also described the holiday as ‘direct aggression towards visitors’ along with the above-mentioned offensive language.
The video quickly racked up thousands of views, and Pirozhkova ultimately made a public apology for the remarks.
‘I understand that many took it as disrespect for the Armenian people. And I truly regret it. I did not and do not have such an intention’, Pirozhkova wrote.
‘I recorded an emotional video about a specific situation and spoke from my feelings at the time. I felt vulnerable at the time and wanted to protect myself’, she wrote, adding, ‘I also didn’t check the sound when I posted the story. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have ended up online’, likely referring to the outrage over the ‘rat-like’ comments.
The apology apparently did not mollify the public, which reported the comments to the Interior Ministry, the Investigative Committee told Vot Tak.
Pirozhkova has been placed under house arrest pending the results of the investigation, and if convicted, faces from one to four years in prison.
Days before Armenians voted on 7 June, the European Commission declared it was “standing firmly” behind prime minister Nikol Pashinyan and unveiled a support package of more than €50m.
Weeks after the vote – widely seen in Armenia as fraudulent – and after members of the main opposition bloc were arrested for petitioning to annul the results, Brussels expanded its investment commitments toward €2.5bn and advanced visa-liberalisation talks.
Among EU officials, the rationale has hardened into doctrine: “He [Pashinyan] is taking Armenia away from Russia.”
Read more
EU pours cash and trade perks into Armenia as critics decry political meddling
That sentence has become the whole of EU policy toward Yerevan. It is also a strategic error, one that is making Armenia less democratic and less safe at the same time without loosening Russia’s grip.
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Consider what that sentence has been asked to excuse.
Four senior clergy of the Armenian Apostolic Church detained and/or prosecuted, one archbishop held 344 days in pre-trial detention, and a criminal case opened against the Catholicos — the head of the Church — himself.
A businessman arrested hours after making a statement in defence of the church and held in pre-trial detention and house arrest for several months, his company then seized by act of parliament, a takeover now being contested before international arbitration in Stockholm.
Opposition offices and media raided in the election campaign’s final fortnight. Six registered candidates arrested the day before the vote and several others were arrested after contesting the election in the Constitutional Court.
A ruling-party ally petitioning the electoral commission — 36 hours before polls opened, on the prime minister’s own televised demand — to strip the largest opposition party of its right to compete.
Unbudgeted spending, including a surprise pension increase, showered on voters in the run-up. And at 2am on the morning after the polls closed, with barely a tenth of ballots processed, a victory declared before the capital had reported.
Western observers documented much of this themselves.
Read more
Third term for Pashinyan anchors Armenia’s pro‑EU course, despite Moscow’s interference
Pressure to attend party events
ODIHR’s own preliminary statement records pressure on public-sector employees to attend ruling-party events and pre-election handouts that, in the observers’ words, “undermined the equality of opportunity to campaign, at odds with OSCE commitments”; a public broadcaster displaying “clear bias in favour of the ruling party, contrary to its legal obligations and public mandate”; intimidation and prosecutions that left many opposition supporters “refraining from actively engaging in the campaign”; and observers denied access to the entry of results in 11 of 38 district commissions.
Then came the headline: a “genuine choice” in a “well-run process.”
The observers documented the disease and pronounced the patient healthy — with the domestic findings buried beneath the one item that fit the story the West had already chosen to tell: foreign pressure.
The EU’s embrace does not merely coexist with this record; it underwrites it. Autocrats respond to price signals.
When each escalation — an archbishop jailed, a company expropriated, candidates arrested on election eve — is answered from Brussels with a package, a summit, or progress on visas, the price of repression is set at zero, and the lesson is learned.
Leaders learnt from Georgia
Compare Georgia: there, democratic backsliding froze the country’s European path and put its officials under sanctions.
Armenia’s rulers watched and drew the obvious conclusion — the EU’s principles are negotiable wherever its geography is convenient. Nothing corrodes European soft power faster than the discovery that its values are a function of its interests.
Read more
Ahead of EU summit and election, Brussels is backing the wrong horse in Armenia
Azerbaijan — an outright autocracy courted by EU for its hydrocarbons — is Exhibit A.
The deeper cost is strategic. Armenia lives next to an Azerbaijan that took Nagorno-Karabakh by force, committed ethnic cleansing there, and keeps pressing new demands.
Deterrence begins at home: it rests on trusted institutions and a society willing to sacrifice for its state. A government that jails archbishops and manufactures majorities cannot summon unity in a crisis; a leader dependent on external patronage and unpopular at home cannot ask his people for sacrifice.
By propping up one man who appeases the enemy and destroys institutions, including the church, military, and courts, the EU is producing exactly the brittle state that invites predation.
If Azerbaijan attacks again, Brussels will find its investment bought neither leverage in Baku nor strength in Yerevan.
Even the premise fails on its own terms.
You do not escape Russia by replicating its political model: the personalised power, the captured courts, the criminalised opposition are precisely the features that make states reclaimable by Moscow.
Nor is the premise’s protagonist who Brussels imagines him to be: Pashinyan’s own Russian entanglements are extensively documented, from meetings with the head of Russia’s foreign-intelligence service in the years before his “Velvet Revolution” to a campaign program that vowed to permit no “problems” with Moscow, while branding critics “foreign agents,” the Kremlin’s own vocabulary.
The former Soviet Republics that actually left Russia’s orbit for good — Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia — did so through institutions: independent courts, free media, and, above all, the peaceful alternation of power.
Not one of them was anchored to the West through a single indispensable leader. Personalised geopolitics is the Kremlin’s game. Europe wins when it plays its own.
None of this requires the EU to abandon Armenia.
It requires the EU to be consistent. Name the political prisoners in public statements, as it does elsewhere, and ask for their release or prompt, fair trials. Condition further disbursements on rule-of-law benchmarks and meaningful reform triggers.
Make full implementation of election observers’ recommendations a precondition for completing visa liberalisation.
And redirect support from the incumbent to the institutions Armenians will still need when he is gone: courts, independent media, and civic watchdogs.
A million Armenians in 1988
In February 1988, up to a million Armenians filled Yerevan’s Opera Square in the first mass democratic mobilisation of the Soviet endgame, before the Baltic Way and before the Berlin Wall came down.
Armenians did not borrow their democratic aspirations from Europe; they helped write that chapter of Europe’s own story.
The EU faces a choice: it can stand with that Armenia — the people who built the state — or with the man unbuilding it. Strengthen the institutions, not the strongman who just lost the vote of the majority of his people.
A Europe consistent in what it preaches would be Armenia’s best ally against its autocrats and its adversaries alike.