Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan periodically publishes video messages on social media addressing Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of the “Strong Armenia” party.

In these indirect exchanges with the Russian businessman and dollar billionaire, who seeks the post of Armenia’s prime minister, Pashinyan calls him a “strong guy” — echoing the party’s name. He mostly uses ironic jabs aimed at Karapetyan.

The incumbent prime minister also urges his opponent to respond on social media in a live broadcast. He even stresses that Karapetyan can address the public despite being under house arrest. Authorities arrested him in June 2025 on charges of calling for a seizure of power. Since the beginning of this year, he has stayed at home, and officials have lifted restrictions on his public appearances.

“Strong guy, you have both the internet and a phone. Say a few words to the people live. Or fine, if you cannot say two words on your own, read from start to finish the text you published. If you manage to read it, I will acknowledge that you are a strong guy,” Pashinyan said in a recent video message.

Karapetyan himself did not respond. Instead, his nephew and member of the “Strong Armenia” political council, Narek Karapetyan, replied:

“Man in a top hat, do not be afraid of Karapetyan. He will not harm you. He will come out, and he will have something to say to you.”

Pashinyan responded to the nephew’s remarks in another video. The prime minister said he fears that by the end of the year Karapetyan could turn “from a billionaire into a homeless man”.

Political analyst Robert Gevondyan described Pashinyan’s statement as a “transparent hint” in an interview with JAMnews.

“Samvel Karapetyan has to act on Russia’s instructions. Otherwise, they will take away his assets in Russia. This has happened many times to businessmen who went against the Kremlin’s will and refused to follow Moscow’s orders,” he said.

Pashinyan’s position and political analyst Robert Ghevondyan’s comment on Armenia’s pre-election situation.

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“They have billions in assets in Russia and Belarus”: the context behind Pashinyan’s remarks

On 19 March, during his weekly briefing, Armenia’s prime minister said opposition forces planning to take part in the 7 June parliamentary elections promote a “revision of the peace” established with Azerbaijan. He argued that these forces are pushing society towards war. He also explained why he believes they are doing so:

“War will bring them the following: they will run a forward post, not a state. Time has shown that this benefits them financially.”

According to Pashinyan, three political forces are advancing this “revision of peace” line. He said they hold “billions of dollars in assets in Russia and Belarus”.

He appeared to be referring to:

• the leader of the “Strong Armenia” party, Samvel Karapetyan,
• former Armenian president and leader of the “Armenia” bloc, Robert Kocharyan,
• and the leader of the “Prosperous Armenia” party, Gagik Tsarukyan, a major Armenian businessman who also operates actively in Belarus.

“They were told: if you want to keep these assets, work, sweat, run, do 30 push-ups. They will not manage it,” the prime minister said.

Comment

Political analyst Robert Ghevondyan believes Armenia’s political actors can run a higher-quality election campaign.

“However, the segment of the electorate that wants to see a higher level of political culture and aspires to it has largely already made its choice. Undecided voters are more likely to belong to the segment that is interested in such scandal-driven, low-grade displays,” he told JAMnews.

He believes the current contest targets voters who are drawn to “scandals and this level of political culture”.

Asked whether Samvel Karapetyan’s silence can be explained by a lack of Armenian language skills — something Prime Minister Pashinyan often hints at — Ghevondyan said:

“I have never heard Karapetyan speak publicly, including in Russian. I have seen separate clips where he spoke both Armenian and Russian. But that was clearly at the level of informal speech. It was everyday communication. Speaking like that in public would damage his reputation. I assume that is why he does not appear publicly. But this is only my assumption.”

Commenting on Pashinyan’s claim that Karapetyan could become “a homeless man” by the end of the year, he said Karapetyan would already have gone bankrupt if he had refused to follow the Kremlin’s will.

Robert Ghevondyan believes that even if the businessman did not receive a direct order from Russia to start political activity in Armenia, his actions have at least received encouragement:

“Samvel Karapetyan spends in Armenia money he earned in Russia. If his actions did not match the Kremlin’s preferences, he would not be able to do anything. Karapetyan spends huge sums of money, from renting campaign buses that drive around the city with his photo to certain activities in the media sphere. If officials in Russia did not agree with this, he would not be able to spend this money. They would not allow him to take it out of Russia.”

The analyst says there are many known cases where wealthy individuals from Georgia, Moldova and other post-Soviet countries went bankrupt “with a light touch” from Moscow.

He believes Samvel Karapetyan’s “Strong Armenia” party has chosen to form alliances even with little-known political groups in order to present itself as a bloc rather than a single party:

“In this way, they aim to position themselves in the political field as a pro-Russian force and attract all actors who can play any role in Armenia’s political life. If this were possible, and if these forces applied, they would agree and unite with them. First of all, this concerns the political forces of Robert Kocharyan and Gagik Tsarukyan, who have a chance of entering parliament after the upcoming elections.”

In this context, the political analyst does not rule out that Karapetyan may also agree to form an alliance with political groups led by former ombudsman Arman Tatoyan and former ambassador-at-large Edmon Marukyan. However, so far none of these groups has shown “such interest”.

Construction of new housing is in full swing in Armenia, mainly in Yerevan and nearby settlements. Real estate agents explain this trend by strong demand from both local residents and foreign buyers. They also stress that many people have recently started to prefer newly built apartments. On the secondary market, residents often face problems such as outdated lifts or worn-out sewage systems.

However, property agents say new developments would not attract such high demand without a law that allows buyers to reclaim income tax on mortgage loans. The scheme applies only to the purchase of newly built housing. The state refunds income tax from a buyer’s salary. Buyers can then use this money to cover mortgage interest payments.

The law came into force in 2014. Authorities stopped applying it in Yerevan in 2025. However, developers who received construction permits before 2022 can still sell apartments under the income tax refund scheme.

Buyers can use this option only once. People with stable incomes and higher salaries tend to choose this way of purchasing housing.

Of course, the income tax refund places a significant financial burden on the state. However, the adoption of this law has driven an unprecedented construction boom in Yerevan and surrounding areas over the past five years. Construction has become the main driver of economic growth.

An analysis of listings on new housing websites shows that more than half of ready-to-move-in apartments have already sold. The figures vary by location, but they generally range between 40% and 70%.

People with more modest incomes tend to buy housing on the secondary market. Prices in this segment are significantly lower.

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Statistical data

According to the Cadastre Committee, more than 74,458 real estate transactions were registered in Yerevan in 2025. These included apartment buildings, private houses, land plots and commercial properties. This marks an 8% increase compared to 2024, when 68,914 transactions were recorded.

Around 21,000 transactions involved purchases of apartments in multi-unit residential buildings. Of these, 15,000, or 72%, took place in Yerevan.

After the capital, the highest number of new-build housing sales was recorded in the city of Abovyan, with 3,131 transactions.

More than half of all housing sale and purchase transactions in Yerevan involved apartments in new buildings. 89% of buyers purchased their apartments directly from developers.

What attracts buyers to new-build housing

Ashkhen Avalyan bought a new 50-square-metre apartment in Yerevan, taking advantage of the income tax refund scheme.

One square metre in the building cost 520,000 drams (about $1,390). She paid a 10% down payment.

“I carefully studied offers on the secondary market and chose this option. First, I would have had to pay a 30% down payment on the secondary market. In addition, homes priced under $80,000 required renovation and furnishing. This significantly increased the overall cost,” Ashkhen explains.

Buyers in new developments usually have to wait a long time before moving in. Most purchase apartments at an early stage of construction, while some buy slightly later. Construction often takes longer than planned, and people may only move in after one to three years. Many use this time to save money for renovation and furnishing.

“In the case of the income tax refund, payments remain relatively low in the first years. Later, interest decreases, but the principal payment increases. To be honest, when I bought a new-build apartment, I also expected to sell it later at a good price. The secondary market raises doubts in this respect. The old housing stock is problematic — lifts are outdated, and sewage systems are worn out. It will be difficult to sell such an apartment at a reasonable price,” Ashkhen says.

Both new and old housing remain in demand

Andranik Grigoryan is a real estate agent. He now offers clients new developments outside Yerevan as well. However, he says the Yerevan market still dominates:

“People are willing to pay 30–40% more to buy an apartment in the capital. Regional offers appeal more to local residents. Some new developments in Yerevan still qualify for the income tax refund. However, to be honest, they are not for those with low or middle incomes. A square metre in such apartments usually costs more than $3,000.”

According to Andranik, most buyers in this segment do not use the income tax refund:

“They often buy property in cash, without a mortgage. Our compatriots living abroad mainly purchase housing in this segment. They see it as an investment or a way to ensure financial stability. Conversations with them show that many plan to spend their old age here or live here for a few months each year.”

The agent believes Armenia offers the safest environment for the Armenian diaspora:

“Moreover, some compatriots living abroad are ready to move here to avoid problems they face in other countries. People often ask me who will buy so many apartments in new developments if domestic purchasing power remains low. The answer is diaspora Armenians. Some buy several apartments at once. Prices will not change sharply in the coming years, because the inflow of people from abroad continues. In addition, some buyers will purchase apartments to rent them out and secure stable income.”

Speaking about high prices in new developments, he points out that the secondary market still offers affordable options for buyers with limited means. This allows the secondary market to maintain stable sales, even without state support such as the income tax refund.

“Buyers in the primary and secondary markets are different. Those with savings prefer the secondary market, because they either want to move in immediately or rent the property out. In the case of new developments, moving in takes from one to three years,” Andranik Grigoryan explains.

In any case, Armenia is recording a construction boom. Last year, developers put 2,270,000 square metres of housing into operation. For comparison, the figure stood at 1,251,000 square metres in 2024