Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan the last visit to Moscow clearly recorded the tectonic shifts taking place in Armenian-Russian relations. For the first time at the highest level, the Kremlin so openly mentioned its “red lines”, refusing to smooth out sharp corners on the eve of parliamentary elections in the republic and the upcoming Armenia-EU summit. This meeting showed that the period of diplomatic half-talks is over. Moscow demands clarity of course from Yerevan and does not hide its skepticism about attempts to combine EAEU membership with active European integration.
How do they really evaluate the results of these negotiations in Russia, and what countermeasures are they preparing? VERELQis a leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies (ISI) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Nikolay Silaev discussed the motives of the open and rather harsh statements of the Russian leadership. In the interview, he explains in detail why the course of Armenia’s accession to the EU is perceived in Moscow as a point of no return, is it worth waiting for Russia to directly support one or another candidate in the parliamentary elections to be held in Armenia on June 7, and what consequences will the political elites’ attempt to engage in wordplay in the geopolitical arena lead to?
Nikolay Silaev is in the photo, source: golosarmenii.am
VERELQ: Mr. Silaev, let’s discuss the results of the recent negotiations between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Many people paid attention to the fact that in the open part of the meeting, the Russian side for the first time at the highest level voiced the demands towards Yerevan that were previously voiced only by experts and lower-level officials. It is noteworthy that this meeting initiated by the Armenian side took place on the threshold of two important events. Two months before the parliamentary elections in Armenia and one month before the Armenia-EU summit. Why, in your opinion, did the Russian leadership decide to announce its grievances so openly right now?
Nikolay Silaev. Well, first of all, far from all demands were heard at the meeting. A much more complete list of them is contained in the interview of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk, which was published, if I am not mistaken, the day after Nikol Pashinyan’s visit. Russian approaches to relations with Armenia are really detailed here, and if we compare the detail and level, then it is probably the highest and most complete statement of our position.
And the president? Vladimir Putin he went into details much less. In his speech at the meeting, it was more about the general atmosphere of relations. This visit was thought of as a pre-election visit by official Yerevan. its purpose was to neutralize the accusations against the Prime Minister that he is spoiling the relations with Russia. The Russian side could either support Nikol Pashinyan in this matter or not. The decision was made not to gamble, but to call a spade a spade.
I believe that the meeting with the president was an attempt to agree on the improvement of bilateral relations. But when it became clear that this was not possible, Alexey Overchuk’s interview was put into action, which, judging by its content, was prepared in advance.
VERELQ: In your opinion, how will Armenian-Russian relations develop in the near future, especially during the pre-election period? After the Moscow negotiations, we witnessed a clear divergence of assessments. the Armenian side called the meeting full and effective, while the Russian side made harsher statements, in particular, calls not to interfere with Russia’s role in the discourse on Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also made a number of critical remarks. How do you think, in fact, how did both parties perceive the results of these negotiations?
Nikolay Silaev. I think they perceived them in about the same way, as strange as it may sound. It would be unexpected if, following the results of the visit, the Armenian side publicly announced that the negotiations were ineffective, unsuccessful, and the pre-election visit failed. In fact, I assume that everyone understands everything. either we are truly allies, good neighbors and friends, or we are not. This dilemma is clearly stated and the parties are well aware of it. Now it remains to wait when Armenia will be promised many symbolic benefits and advantages at the upcoming summit with the European Union.
VERELQ: I would like to discuss Armenia’s course of rapprochement with the European Union. Official Yerevan openly declares its desire to join the European Union, but it is obvious that full membership is unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, taking into account the current geopolitical realities and Armenia’s participation in the Eurasian Economic Union, how problematic is the very process of Armenia’s European integration for Moscow?
Nikolay Silaev. By now, it is clear that this is problematic in at least one respect. it is impossible to be part of the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union at the same time. Armenia can fully start the integration process, which will inevitably lead to, for example, joining the European Union sanctions against Russia, as well as many other steps.
Long before the issue of Armenia’s membership in the European Union or even granting it candidate status will be moved to the level of practical negotiations, Yerevan will be required to perform the so-called “homework”. And Armenia, striving towards the European Union, will have to fulfill it. That task will include the very European standards that the president mentioned. I expect that Armenia will be asked to join the anti-Russian sanctions.
All these processes will start “on this shore” even before the actual accession to the European Union and even before the start of official negotiations on the accession. Therefore, if we start from the assumption that Armenia will not join in the near future anyway, and ask what the difference is for Russia, the answer is unequivocal. There is a difference for Russia. In addition, it should be taken into account that the European Union has long ceased to be an exclusively economic union and is rapidly turning into a military-political bloc.
VERELQ: Let’s return to the internal political situation of Armenia. At the meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the issue of the participation of pro-Russian forces in the Armenian electoral process, noting that their presence would be a positive factor. Politicians with Russian passports under pressure were also mentioned. Expert circles assume that it could refer to such figures as the detained Samvel Karapetyan, and that Moscow wants their full participation in the country’s political life. Does such attention at the highest level mean that Russia has its own candidate for prime minister in the upcoming elections?
Nikolay Silaev. I don’t think so. Russia’s position is somewhat more complicated. It was about the following. there are people with different views in the Armenian political field. Voters and political parties have different beliefs. The main message was that those politicians who are in favor of allied, neighborly and friendly relations with Russia should have the opportunity to freely participate in the elections. It is not worth it for them to create artificial obstacles, as is happening now. The point, of course, is not to support any specific candidate, but to ensure fair conditions for holding the elections themselves.
VERELQ: Summing up: In your opinion, in what scenario will Armenian-Russian relations develop in the future? Will Moscow and Yerevan simply monitor the current situation and react to problems as they arise, or was the meeting symptomatic and we should expect serious consequences for bilateral ties in the near future?
Nikolay Silaev. Now it is difficult to make unequivocal predictions, but let’s say. I think that Russia is interested in providing a clear understanding of its position both to the Armenian government and to the society.
- First of all, Russia is interested in maintaining allied, friendly and neighborly relations with Armenia.
- And secondly, in Moscow they want to make Yerevan aware. Integration with the European Union means a break with Russia, and that break will have concrete consequences.
VERELQ: Do you mean that even the process of European integration itself will lead to such consequences, and not just the actual accession of Armenia to the European Union?
Nikolay Silaev. In this case, integration and membership are the same thing. In fact, the logic of the Prime Minister of Armenia, which he demonstrated during the meeting with the President of Russia, comes down to the following. “We’re definitely not going anywhere, we just want to go both there and there.” However, trying to sit on two chairs is hardly compatible with maintaining good relations with Russia. in fact, that’s exactly what the president said. In other words, another important meaning of what was said in the Kremlin is that politicians do not need to play with words.
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