168.amis the interlocutor of Iranian political analyst Ehsan Mohavedian.

– The last few hours were quite dramatic in international relations. Against the backdrop of Trump’s threats, Pakistan started mediation efforts between Iran and the US, as a result of which the parties declared a ceasefire for two weeks. Iran announced that it was opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States announced that it was considering the ten points offered by Iran as a basis for negotiations. Both sides present what happened as a victory. Such sharp turns in international relations are not a manifestation of good will, but the result of either the balance of power or mutual fear. In the end, which side fell: Washington, due to the economic consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a major regional war, or Tehran, due to the possible unpredictable and harsh blows of the Trump administration?

– Without a doubt, it is the United States that fears Iran. Trump has acknowledged the fact that Iran has emerged as the world’s fourth superpower. Trump proposed a 15-point program to Iran. Iran rejected it and instead presented its own 10-point plan, and he accepted it. Because he was afraid of the damage caused by the war in America, the increase in gasoline prices, the hundreds of American casualties, the failure of the plot to invade Iran and the inability to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He’s a professional idiot because he’s now trying to solve a crisis that didn’t even exist before the war: the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and global shortages of helium, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and steel.

All the experts and analysts in the American and Israeli media admit the victory of Iran and the defeat of Israel and the United States. The list of these wins and losses is as follows.

America’s defeats in the war against Iran.

• A waste of more than $40 billion of American taxpayer dollars.
• Hundreds of Americans killed and wounded,
• Doubling of oil prices,
• Destruction of American bases in the region,
• The petrodollar is dead.
• Europe has fallen out of line with global trends and has become hostile to America.
• NATO has weakened
• Israel and the US are at loggerheads and mistrust, and Zionists feel humiliated and isolated.

Iran’s victories.

• Iran’s 400 kg of uranium has been preserved.
• Sanctions will be lifted.
• Iran will collect tribute from the Strait of Hormuz and has new financing for reconstruction.
• Iran’s allies have been preserved and strengthened.
• The Islamic Republic has been strengthened by new, resilient and rational leaders.
• The Arab allies of the US and Israel have suffered serious losses.
• Iran’s missile program will be maintained and strengthened.
• Trump, who talked about the destruction of Iranian civilization, has been humiliated, discredited and broken, repeatedly changing his positions and accepting the 10-point demands.

In short, Iran has become the world’s fourth rising power. This is the “Art of the Deal” of the incompetent and ignorant Trump.

– What actually happened, what did Washington and Tehran agree on, and to what extent will this ceasefire turn into lasting stability?

– The 10 demands accepted by Iran are:

• A complete cessation of all aggression against Iran and allied resistance groups, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region, prohibition of any attack against Iran from military bases.
• For a period of two weeks, a limited daily passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is established, according to the protocol of safe movement, which is subject to special monitoring and regulation carried out by Iran.
• The lifting of all primary, secondary and UN sanctions, as well as the release of Iranian assets and property.
• Compensation for the damages suffered by Iran through the creation of an investment and financial fund.
• Iran’s commitment not to build nuclear weapons.
• Acceptance of Iran’s right to enrichment by the US and negotiations on the level of enrichment.
• Iran’s agreement to negotiate bilateral and multilateral peace agreements with regional countries in accordance with its own interests.
• Extending the principle of non-aggression to all aggressors against all resistance groups.
• Termination of all resolutions of the Council of Governors and Security Council, and confirmation of all commitments by an official UN resolution.

Considering the advantage it has in the region, Iran will not back down from its terms. It is the United States that is facing problems and constraints with the World Cup, congressional elections, rising gasoline prices, the threat of impeachment against Trump, and the failure to achieve all of his goals against Iran. In this war, Iran used only 30% of the power of its “missile cities”, and the Iranian people supported the Islamic Republic throughout the war, with millions of street demonstrations. The United States and Israel will pay a high price if they violate the ceasefire. But if they respect it, Iran will also respect it. The choice is theirs.

– As you mentioned, the United States accepted the 10 points presented by Iran. In recent weeks, the media have been constantly reporting on Iranian preconditions and proposals. Do you think these last 10 points are revised versions of previous proposals and what are the “red lines” of Iran that are included in these proposals?

– In the presented 10-point program, all “red lines” of Iran were respected. The United States and Israel wanted to destroy Iran or at least change the regime so that Iran’s behavior would change. However, not only those goals did not come true, but Iran stands firm and strong today. A significant part of Iran’s missile and drone potential remains unused. The Iranian people, unlike the depressed and defeated peoples of the USA and Israel, are ready to continue the struggle.

Iran’s enriched uranium is still inside the country. Arab countries and Israel were hit hard and weakened. The forces of resistance have strengthened. The petrodollar has weakened and the United States has no choice but to withdraw from the Middle East and accept Iranian hegemony.

– According to you, there is no concession on the part of Tehran in this process?

– Iran has not made any concessions to the United States. On the contrary, the United States accepted everything that Iran demanded. The United States sought to destroy Iran’s nuclear, missile, and drone capabilities, force Iran into complete capitulation, annihilate Iranian civilization, destroy Iran’s entire infrastructure, and bring about regime change in Iran and its allies. However, none of them happened, and Trump was embarrassed and humiliated. China and Russia will undoubtedly take advantage of this situation in the future. Iran has dealt a heavy blow to the United States and Israel, and America’s decline has accelerated.

– How was the position of the South Caucasus considered in Iran during this war, is it about Azerbaijan or, in particular, Armenia? In your opinion, will the war, the policy of the RA authorities during the war affect the Armenian-Iranian agenda in any way?

– During this war, Baku supported Israel, and many Israeli and American drones entered Iran from the territory of Azerbaijan. Of course, Aliyev expressed sympathy for Iran on the surface, but in practice he hoped for Israel’s success. After Iran’s power and resilience became apparent, Aliyev and the pro-government media changed their hostile tone toward Iran, and Azerbaijani public opinion also began to support Iran. This made it very difficult for Aliyev to carry out malicious actions against Iran. At the same time, everyone in Iran is aware of Aliyev’s true intentions and the Azeri population of Iran about his interest in splitting the regions. The attack on Iran’s military facilities in Bandar Anzali and the attack on Parsabad on the Iran-Azerbaijani border are other questionable incidents that Baku needs to explain.

The good and dear people of Armenia, as well as some political parties of that country, showed great and strong support to Iran, and we in Iran will never forget that support. Although the Armenian government did not condemn the American crimes and only expressed regret, it did provide some assistance to Iran and, fortunately, bilateral trade was not seriously damaged.

However, there was an expectation in Iran that the Armenian government would come out with a clearer position and condemn the brutal aggression of the United States and Israel. If Armenia seeks stable relations with Iran, it must understand that after the last war, Iran will not tolerate the increase of Israeli presence in neighboring countries, nor the American efforts to create the “Trump Route” and the fake “Zangezur Corridor”. “Trump’s route” does not bring any economic benefit to Armenia. it will only surround the country with enemy states and endanger the Iran-Armenia border. Iran is committed to maintaining these borders and countering any attempts to weaken its geopolitical and corridor position, and expects the Armenian government to understand this important issue and strengthen bilateral relations, as in the past, by investing in joint corridor and economic projects.

—

18-year-old schoolboy Davit Minasyan’s lawyer Lusine Martirosyan wrote:

“As a result of medical examinations, 18-year-old Davit Minasyan was diagnosed with a closed cranial trauma, concussion… However, on that day, Davit was just participating in the liturgy in the church.”

In fact, the medical examination showed that during the liturgy in Saint Anna church, the school boy Davit Minasyan was physically and psychologically abused by Nikol Pashinyan and his bodyguards.

—

The recently announced US-Iran two-week cease-fire, before the US-Iran talks expected in Islamabad have yet started, has caused serious disagreements between the parties, casting doubt on the cease-fire and possible future agreements. And all this is because immediately after the Iran-US ceasefire agreement was reached, Israel began to strike Lebanon hard, declaring that Lebanon is not part of the US-Iran agreements. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf announced that the US had already violated three key points of Iran’s 10-point proposal before the start of negotiations, including violating the ceasefire in Lebanon, using a drone to penetrate Iranian airspace and denying Iran the right to enrich uranium.

“As the US president has clearly stated, Iran’s 10-point proposal is a “workable basis for negotiations” and the fundamental framework of those negotiations. However, until today, three points of this proposal have been violated,” wrote Ghalibaf on the X social network.

According to him, among the violations are the non-fulfillment of the first point of the proposal, which refers to the cease-fire in Lebanon, the intrusion of an unmanned aerial vehicle into the airspace of Iran in the city of Lar, and depriving Iran of the right to enrich uranium. Ghalibaf added that bilateral ceasefire or negotiations are not advisable under such conditions. Obviously, there is some confusion about Iran’s proposals, with several versions circulating, and the parties interpreting them accordingly. Iran insists that the cease-fire also extends to Lebanon, i.e. Iran’s allies, sanctions against Iran must be lifted, Tehran must maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz, and continue enriching uranium. However, the US insists that the ceasefire does not apply to Lebanon.

US President Donald Trump stated that there is no agreement that Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium. The Strait of Hormuz should also be opened and made safe for traffic. US Vice President also confirmed that the USA did not agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. “We have never made such a promise … we have said that the ceasefire will focus on Iran and America’s allies, both Israel and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf,” US Vice President JD Vance said.

Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran published the Pakistani statement on its official X social network page, which states that Lebanon has been officially included in the list of countries where a ceasefire should be implemented immediately, emphasizing: “The terms of the cease-fire between Iran and the United States are clear and simple. America must choose between a ceasefire or continuing the war through Israel. A combination of these two factors is impossible. The world is witnessing the carnage in Lebanon. The ball is now in the court of the United States, and global public opinion is watching whether the country will fulfill its obligations.”

Kaya Kalas, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Policy announced that the cease-fire reached between the United States of America and Iran should also be extended to Lebanon, adding that the Iranian-backed Lebanese group “Hezbollah” should be disarmed. “Israel’s actions put the US-Iran ceasefire under serious pressure. The agreement reached with Iran should also be extended to Lebanon. As a result of Israeli strikes, hundreds of people were killed last night, which makes it difficult to argue that such harsh actions can be considered self-defense,” Kalas wrote on the X social network.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and US Vice President JD Vance were supposed to go to Pakistan’s capital Islamabad today for negotiations, but there is still no clear information whether Iran-US talks will take place in Pakistan or not. According to a number of media reports in the Middle East, Pakistan is actively preparing for its mediation efforts, preparing to host the American and Iranian delegations for global negotiations on the Pakistani platform.

And what is remarkable is that all this is happening in a situation where, according to the authoritative Financial Times, the Trump administration has been secretly pushing for weeks for a ceasefire to be established, seeking to ease the economic burden caused by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington hoped to use Pakistan as a mediator. Moreover, according to the newspaper, Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir was in contact with Iranian officials, Special Envoy Steve Wittkoff, Vice President J.D. With Vance and Trump himself, even after the president threatened to destroy Iranian civilization on Tuesday.

According to five sources familiar with the diplomatic communications, Trump has requested a cease-fire since March 21, the same day he first threatened to strike Iran’s power plants. However, at the same time, in the public field, the US president used a different rhetoric, threatening constant bombings and the prospect of destruction.

“They are the ones asking for consent, not me. They are the ones asking for an agreement,” Trump said, adding that the Iranians are asking for an agreement.

However, the upcoming US-Iran talks in Pakistan do not seem to promise great results, they will take place in a complex and multi-layered security environment, where multi-layered disagreements limit the possibility of diplomatic success. Israel’s continuation of operations in Lebanon under the formal conditions of a cease-fire creates a situation where Iran appears at the negotiation table not with the logic of concessions, but of resistance and containment, further hardening the position that we can already see from the statements coming from Tehran. A classic situation of “managed tension” was formed, where the parties were interested in negotiating, but not enough to reach real compromises.

Against this backdrop, Pakistan’s mediating role, though important, is more technical than strategic. Islamabad can provide a platform for communication, but it cannot influence the main contradictions, which are not due to bilateral, but regional and even global competition.

Geneticists assess the probability of success as limited, at most partial results. It may be about temporary reduction of tension, maintenance of communication channels or agreements of a humanitarian nature, but few foresee a strategic breakthrough.

The speech of Iranian analysts and diplomats shows that Iran’s toughening stance will inevitably affect the South Caucasus as well. In the run-up to the Iran-US-Israel war, Iran hardened its stance towards Azerbaijan, sending multi-level warnings to Azerbaijan about the consequences of giving Azerbaijani territory to Iran’s enemies.

In recent years, Tehran has already given clear signals that any geopolitical restructuring in the region, which would limit its connection with Armenia or strengthen the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem, would be considered as a red line.

In the conditions of the current deepening of tensions, this position seems to be becoming more pronounced. However, it is still not clear how this will affect the actual Iranian policy in the South Caucasus. Aggravation of several trends can be expected. It is not excluded that Iran will try to more actively strengthen its economic and infrastructural presence in Armenia as a counterweight to other regional projects, the deepening of security cooperation is also not excluded, and thirdly, Tehran may react more harshly to any initiative related to the US presence in Armenia and TRIPP, considering it to undermine its strategic interests.

These developments are turning the South Caucasus into a zone of greater geopolitical competition, where Iran, amid its global pressures, can act more decisively and at times riskier. This, in turn, complicates Armenia’s foreign political problems.

In conclusion, it should be noted that possible US-Iran negotiations will take place in Pakistan in unfavorable military and political conditions, and their success depends on the dynamics of regional escalations. And Iran’s toughening position will also be reflected in the South Caucasus, increasing the level of tension and competition in the region.

—

“We have 3-4 candidates,” Gagik Tsarukyan said in a conversation with journalists, answering the question of who will be the PAP prime minister’s candidate.

Gagik Tsarukyan also mentioned that he will not be prime minister if his forces win the elections.

“I don’t want the people to say that Tsarukyan came to fight for office. That’s the only thing that stopped me,” said Gagik Tsarukyan.

He also assured that cooperation with CP is excluded, they will not vote for that force if it depends on their vote whether they will be in power or not.

—

A few days ago, with a separate publication, “Political motives of Hayk Sargsyan’s revelations. Why does he not demand the publication of the 44-day report, what was his brother doing during the war days? by article we referred to the accusations against the RA Defense Minister Suren Papikyan.

Ministry of Defense them didn’t leave a comment and considered Hayk Sargsyan’s claims about the number of conscripts and the conditions in the armed forces to be misinformation.

At the same time, the structure led by Papikyan considered it necessary to emphasize that the data on the planning and number of military conscription is among the information subject to encryption, although Sargsyan’s statements were classified as conjecture.

The question is that this is not the first time that the representative of the ruling party has voiced such data, but the defense department has not officially announced their inadmissibility. One of our published in 2023 in the article We even asked the question: “Will RA Defense Minister Suren Papikyan try to counter Hayk Sargsyan’s disclosures, but this time with more effective steps, time will tell?”

Why we emphasized “active” because there were discussions in the Standing Committee on Defense and Security of the National Assembly, Hayk Sargsyan-Suren Papikyan question-and-answer session, when the Minister of Defense offered to talk about some problems within the army behind closed doors: “problems have 2 parts: public and closed, Mr. Kocharyan can initiate a closed discussion, to which I am always ready to come and answer your questions.”

But after this remark of Suren Papikyan, Hayk Sargsyan continued to publish information containing elements of secrecy from the NA podium, publicize issues related to the army subject to closed discussion.

Hayk Sargsyan gave the justification for this the other day. “The idea that the enemy will find out, it collapsed in 2020,” because, according to him, during the entire war, Azerbaijan followed all the movement on the coast, 24/7.

«In other words, he found out where the commander of the defense army is, he shot him, where the deputies are, he shot him. In other words, he not only knew the locations of the commanders, army leadership, and important units by name, but he also made target hits. Both our troop locations, supply routes, positions, etc., have all been considered, are being considered, and will be considered. In other words, the idea that, oh, he is talking about the army, he thinks that our situation will worsen with secrecy… The critical situation has already been badly fixed since 2020, and we also talked about it in the investigative commission of the 44-day war, that the enemy knew full well.” the CP deputy justified his declassifications.

The Ministry of Defense did not address this part of Hayk Sargsyan’s claims, at least regarding the period of Suren Papikyan’s tenure, after all, he claims that even today the locations of our troops, supply routes, and positions are being considered.

But this silence of the Ministry of Defense is perhaps understandable, if we take into account that the places of deployment of the Armenian armed forces, the supply routes are being considered due to the invasion of the sovereign territory of Armenia by Azerbaijan in 2021-2023 and its strengthening there, and it is unlikely that anything positive will change in this regard in the near future.

In addition to this, during these 8 years, Nikol Pashinyan himself has information classified as a state secret made public՝ Before the 44-day war, during it, after it, moreover, in some cases, he personally publicly admitted that he violated the law and disclosed information containing elements of secrecy.

Of course, Suren Papikyan was not spared from this either On March 31, 2022, the military attachés of the EU and NATO member states accredited in RA were escorted to the N airbase of the RA Defense Ministry. And then they published a message and photos attached to it, through which, according to experts, even non-specialists could easily determine the geolocation of the military hangar, and there are not many such hangars in Armenia.

And regarding the fortified regions in February of this year video was be published although “On State Secret” RA: the law specifies that the state secrets include “the allied states in the territory of the Republic of Armenia and About the organizational structure, armament and number of structural divisions of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Armenia, the Ministry of Defense” the data:

of course The Minister of Defense tried to convince us that he has received confirmation from the relevant authorities that the conditions in the fortified areas to the extent shown do not pose any threat to us, but we stand by our opinion and in favor of respecting the requirement of the law.

And Hayk Sargsyan’s claims regarding Suren Papikyan and the army today during a briefing with journalists referred to also Nikol Pashinyan.

“I have to record that the Armenian army has never been in such a good condition in terms of food, clothing, weapons, morale, and defense capabilities.: The rest, whoever says it for political reasons, is not important, for me the soldiers, their parents and their parents’ reaction are important. But that does not mean that there are no problems in the army, there is no such army in the world where there is no problem,” he emphasized and reminded about the concept of the transformation of the army, which is allegedly being implemented step by step, although we wrote on one occasion that Pashinyan is also in it. “dangers” saw

“And I don’t see the need to address the rest of the statements, because when I try to get clarifications about them, it turns out that those statements were made and something was misunderstood, then it turned out that something did not happen, or it turned out that what was said was not true. It’s another thing that people who make a statement, and then it turns out that the statement is based on the wrong facts, should have the same political will to stand up and say, folks, the fact I’m talking about turns out not to be so. If so, let’s admit that it is so, if not, let’s admit that it’s not so.” Pashinyan continued the topic.

In other words, Pashinyan is implying that Hayk Sargsyan will either have to prove that he is the right one after the Defense Ministry’s rebuttal, or apologize to Suren Papikyan.

At the time of writing the article, there was no substantive response from the CP deputy. Instead, on his Facebook page, one user left a comment under a post saying: “As soon as they come out of the CP, they start to cry.” to which his brother, Nairi Sargsyan, responded immediately. “Hayk has not left the CP and as I understand, he has no such plans.”

It should be noted that Hayk Sargsyan gave a briefing to journalists a few days ago had said, who considered Pashinyan to be his elder brother, but now their friendship does not continue.

But after leaving him and his brother out of the electoral list, Sargsyan shares the CP’s ideology, for example, that the army should be a backup tool or player in security matters, although in peacetime the army has its clear defense mission.

By the way, Hayk Sargsyan, of course, welcomes the mothers of soldiers who are carrying out action plans these days, who complain that the shortening of the mandatory military service period was not extended to their sons.

At the last action, there were quite a few pro-government citizens, but there were also apolitical ones, and in any case, it is necessary to understand who is behind this, or how the authorities will take advantage of this.

And before that, let’s note that both Suren Papikyan and, even more, Nikol Pashinyan should refer to the data published by Hayk Sargsyan that during the 44-day war, Azerbaijan learned the locations of the army leadership, commanders, and important units and carried out targeted strikes.

Let’s not forget that Hayk Sargsyan is a member of the National Defense and Security Committee, which allowed him to participate in the work of the investigative commission studying the events of the 44-day war.

Shouldn’t we understand how Azerbaijan got to know these data, how much this affected the outcome of the war, Pashinyan does not miss the opportunity to talk about state treason and spies.

In this case, isn’t it beneficial? Let’s say that the arms exhibition to be held on May 28 in the Republic Square, which Pashinyan and the members of his government are talking about wherever they sit, is beneficial and relevant now. In other words, there is a need for a political report that provides votes before the elections. Let us emphasize that the May 28 event in Baku is perceived as a report and a warning that they will never allow the militarization of Armenia.

Summarizing all of this, we must note that any public disagreements, question-and-answer sessions, and expected display of weapons by the members of the ruling party related to the army are purely “pure” political calculations and planned actions, perhaps in some sense even an “internal conflict” brought to light, for which the army is “used”.

The hot election phase is ahead, and in this regard we will see a lot more from the political ruling and non-ruling circles. And we will have occasion to talk about their security programs.

—

Today, journalists asked Gagik Tsarukyan whether he would support the opposition if it depended on the votes of his political party in case of victory in the elections.

“If Kocharyan should be prime minister, no,” answered Tsarukyan.

Gagik Tsarukyan answered another question: what if Samvel Karapetyan or Narek Karapetyan needs votes, what will he do?

“We will discuss it.”

To remind, Tsarukyan announced today that he excludes cooperation with CP, he will not form a coalition either with former political forces or current ones.

—

168TVof “Trigger” the guest of the program Russian political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko is:

Key issues of global politics and international security were touched upon during the conversation: US strategy in the Middle East and possible escalation around Iran, including scenarios of limited wars and the transformation of “red lines” in world politics.

The role of Washington and Europe in the Ukrainian conflict, the degree of independence of European elites and their place in the new architecture of international relations, as well as the evolution of Russian foreign policy, the reasons for changing the format of confrontation with the West, and the assessment of the effectiveness of Moscow’s current strategy were discussed.

Particular attention was paid to the regional dynamics of the Middle East, Iran’s strategy, the role of proxy forces and the risks of further escalation, as well as the possibility of expanding conflict zones, including South Asia and the Pacific region.

The hypothesis of the transition of the world to the state of “war of all against all”, the consumption of global resources and the logic of temporary victories in the conditions of systemic crisis were discussed.

Within the framework of the project, the ongoing processes in the South Caucasus were also observed. The balance of influence of Russia and Turkey, possible scenarios of regional destabilization, Armenia’s geopolitical choice and its potential for multi-vector policy, taking into account economic and energy constraints. A special reference was made to the place of small states in the developing world order, between the balancing strategy, the struggle for survival and the risk of losing subjectivity.

Hayk Derzyan

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The regular congress of the “Prosperous Armenia” party ended a little while ago, during which Gagik Tsarukyan was unanimously re-elected as the party’s chairman. The assembly also approved the first three dozen candidates of the PAP electoral list for the upcoming parliamentary elections.

1. Tsarukyan Gagik
2. Tevanyan Andranik
3. Louisa Sargsyan
4. Ayvazyan Ara
5. Manukyan Armen
6. Babayan Metaksya
7. Grigoryan Martun
8. Suren from Suren
9. Elinar Vardanyan
10. Hovhannisyan Vahe
11. Stepanyan Gevorg
12. Iveta Tonoyan
13. Mikael Melkumyan
14. Arman Abovyan
15. Arustamyan Nora
16. Rostomyan Hrachya
17. Arman Piroyan
18. Lianna Manukyan
19. Armen Kosakyan
20. Grigoryan Karen
21. Davtyan Nune
22. Bozoyan Yervand
23. Kakoyan Kamo
24. Karapetyan Satenik
25. Shakaryan Roman
26. Danielyan Stepan
27. Manukyan Aregnaz
28. Harutyunyan Mkhitar
29. Sergoyan Karen
30. Grigoryan Gayane

—

The Republican Party announced its decision not to participate in the NA elections, while expressing its readiness to contribute to the change of power and the victory of the opposition forces by all possible means. The RPA, among other means, undertook the task of organizing various actions on the days of the European Political Community Summit to be held in Yerevan in early May and the first European Union-Armenia summit.

The RPA’s position is not typical of ordinary pre-election realities, and has nothing to do with the electoral boycott. It fully corresponds to today’s non-standard situation in Armenia, in fact to ontological threats, which can no longer be faced with classical political tools, such as elections. The problem is not the approach of the party taken separately, but in a broader sense, the concept with which any political force treats the created situation.

Today, all forces actively participating in the elections are constantly announcing their chances of winning. This concept, which is completely normal for standard situations, should be completely different in the country, where the elections will not determine the arrangement of the parliamentary forces, but even the question of the existence of the state.

In these conditions, it is conceptually important to aim not for the partial victory of the opposition forces in the elections, but for the complete defeat of the government. This is not one of those cases where the former mechanically implies the latter. Simple mathematics and sociology do not work in such cases. The victories of the opposition forces, taken separately, even if impressive, without a 100 percent defeat of the government, will result in the victory of the same government, with some, at that moment, insignificant percentage.

This means that if the CP does not leave power and does not leave unconditionally, then it becomes completely secondary which of the opposition forces will get how many mandates in the future NA. At the moment, however, the election game is going in that direction. the opposition forces are counting their future mandates, the CP is counting the days until June 7 will arrive and the counting of the opposition will move to the polling station.

At the moment, only the RPA has made an offer opposing this scheme, along with the pre-election standard competition gaining momentum with the dominance of the Communist Party, offering a conditional street as the last chance for the complete defeat of the government. Moreover, the same RPA has been consistently promoting the “Impeachment” initiative since last year, which, along with the street struggle, can become a unique non-electoral chance for a change of power. The rest of the political field has not yet responded to the RPA’s proposal, at least at the institutional level, which makes us believe that for most of the oppositionists, however, what is important is their individual victory and not the complete defeat of power.

When the political forces choose the mandate in the dilemma of the mandate and the salvation of the state, the final victory of those who caused the imperative to save the state is recorded. Their ultimate victory is the ultimate defeat of the state, which, however, is of little concern to those for whom individual victories are important in total defeats.

 Harutyun Avetisyan

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