Professor Maiko Ichihara, a Japanese expert on East Asian security and information issues, believes that the South Caucasus is a region of critical importance to the entire world, owing to its geographical position, as well as various other factors present at both the domestic and international levels. According to her, factors related to the energy sector, as well as those involving external influence, play a significant role in the South Caucasus.
Here is the full interview with Maiko Ichihara by Armenpress.
– In recent years, frameworks for multilateral cooperation have faced serious challenges. Which of those challenges would you highlight in particular?
-There are a lot of multilateral organizations that have been under such a big challenge. And as a Japanese person who came from Japan, I would say that what we are concerned about the most is international criminal court. Because the current head of the international criminal court is a Japanese person who is now sanctioned. And we in the society have been facing this dilemma where our ally, the United States, is sanctioning ICC while the ICC head is Japanese. So, while we want to maintain the U.S.-Japan alliance in a positive manner, we also want to make sure that our Japanese head is going to be safe and healthy, and she can continue the work. But, well, of course, ICC is not the only organization that we are concerned about․ The overall United Nations system itself has been under serious attacks. And the United Nations is so important in tackling global issues, because it sets the agenda, it has a lot of capacities, money, and so forth. And it’s so much important for global cooperation.
-Under what conditions is the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world taking place?
-Well, I’m not sure whether it’s really accurate to say that we are moving from the unipolar world to multipolar world. Rather, it looks like we are moving from a unipolar world to a bipolar world, in the sense that China has been rising and challenging the U.S. hegemony. And so these two great powers have been having rivalry, whether it’s in Europe, it’s in Asia, or wherever it is. And of course, this has to do with the relative decline of the United States as well, in terms of the military capabilities, as well as economic capabilities as well. And China has been rising in a relative term as well, largely thanks to its huge population, but of course with the advanced capacities in tech sector, especially AI and so forth. And this change has been a huge concern for us international relations scholars, because we have this hegemonic stability theory, or power transition theory, which tells that when there is a decline in hegemony and a challenger, then the possibility of getting into war will increase. So we have to really think about how to prevent a war from occurring between especially these two powers.
-What are the changing rules of the game, what does the struggle over norms look like, and what is the role of non-state actors?
-Thank you very much for that question. That’s actually at the heart of my concern. So with the rise of populism in the entire world, together with the fact that social media has been really setting the discourse in every country, we have been having a spread of nationalistic discourse, as well as very much unilateral type of discourse. In Japan, we have been having the spread of xenophobia, which is really a huge concern for many of us. And so this means that the norms of diversity, equity, and inclusiveness, or DEI, is weakening in every part of the world, which is challenging the rights of minorities, be it social minorities, religious minorities, or gender minorities, and what have you. And so these norms that were once positive for the stability of society is under challenge. And this means that we have to really get back these norms and protect these norms if we want to stabilize our societies. And for that purpose, the agenda-setting capacities of civil society members, the media, and private actors is so much important.
-In this context, what role can middle powers play, and what role does Japan have in the revitalization and reconstruction of the global governance system?
-Japan is a country that does not try to sell what it has been doing in the entire world. And so we actually don’t really get to know what Japan has been doing. Well, let me take the example of the COVID-19. During the COVID-19, Japan provided cold chain support for many of the developing countries, while those great powers like the United States and China were having this vaccine diplomacy to show to the world who is more influential, and also in order to influence other countries to be close with the United States or China. Japan’s approach was steady and might have been behind the scene, but it was really for the stability of the world, the stability and protection of the lives of the people. And I believe that Japan can continue playing that sort of middle power role, which is eventually necessary once we come to the end of this nationalistic, unilateral sort of geopolitical landscape.
-Within the scope of our discussion topic, what observations do you have regarding the Caucasus region?
-I am a specialist of Asia, and so normally I look at East Asia, Southeast Asia, and South Asia. So South Caucasus is not really the region that I normally cover, and yet I have been always interested. And so I always wanted to come here. Well, I once came to the region three years ago, but it’s really the first time to come to Armenia. And the reason why I was interested, I have been always interested, is because this is such an important region for the whole world. Because of this geographical position, and so many factors are going on, domestically and internationally. The energy sector factors there, foreign influence factors here, and also a lot of conflicts are within the region, as well as in the neighboring regions as well. And as a person who comes from Japan, we are positioned in such a hot spot, being surrounded by China, Russia, and North Korea. We always want to learn from other hot spots, to learn how to protect our countries, how to stabilize our regions. And so Armenia was a really great country to learn from, for me. And in addition to that, I have been interested in how people would speak to each other in the societies. And you said the South Caucasus, which apparently have very different countries in this region. And I witnessed how people talk differently in those three countries. And in a sense, I was really amazed how openly Armenian people talk about things, including politics, economy, and everything, which shows that we are like-minded countries, and we can foster further partnership.
-What meetings have you planned during your visit to Armenia?
-Unfortunately, I’m staying here only for two days. And so the meetings that I can have is very much limited. But I’m going to have a talk at the American University of Armenia, which is hosted by the university. I’m really thankful about that. And we are going to discuss what kind of landscape we are having in the international scene, together with some of the leading scholars from Armenia.