Category: News

“Classes” in the program Doctor of political sciences, professor, energy security specialist Vahe Davtyanspoke about the gas shortage in Europe in the current situation and the role of Turkey and Russia in filling this shortage, as well as nuclear threats.

«The Strait of Hormuz is closed and there is a shortage of oil and gas in Europe. Turkey is more than skillfully trying to adapt to this situation, which is trying to diversify the export of natural gas to Europe through “Turkish Stream” and “Blue Stream”. Russia will try to fill that deficit in the form of indirect supplies, but this does not mean that there are no bypass ways, and one of those ways is Turkey, and that is the reason why Turkey is showing a rather passive attitude now,” said the energy security expert.

As for nuclear weapons, he said proliferation must be controlled, and in this regard the IAEA must be given real tools to influence the internal decisions of states, otherwise nuclear weapons could end up in the hands of, for example, various terrorist organizations at any moment. 

«We must closely monitor Turkey’s development of nuclear weapons. This is also brought to the Azerbaijani agenda. Aliyev has already announced the development of a peaceful atom several times, but taking into account the relations between Azerbaijan-Turkey, Azerbaijan-Pakistan, which is a nuclear power, of course, at some point, Azerbaijan will transform the peaceful atom into a military atom. In this regard, even more so, we should not allow our Metsamor nuclear power plant to be closed,” Vahe Davtyan said.

Details in the video.

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The war against Iran and the international reaction

The US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRA) has been going on for over a month. This illegitimate military operation once again showed that the philosophy of foreign policy in the world has changed a lot in recent years. If relatively recently the world still relied on international agreements and international rules, then in recent years everything has turned around. Force became law. International jurisprudence has somehow gone out of the basic principles of conducting international relations.

International organizations, which were supposed to monitor the observance of laws, showed surprising indifference. Starting with the UN and other international organizations, which includes the IRA, they have shown a strange passivity, they have not announced any tough measures against the aggressors before, limiting themselves to «serious concern» expressing and «to end the conflict as soon as possible» with calls. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which unites all Muslim countries, also did not express itself clearly. ohTherefore, the main principle of international relations is now: whoever is stronger is right. athat is, essentially, power «the truth» is a new factor that is more and more established in the world.

Similarities and Differences in US and Israeli Goals Towards Iran

Definitely Trump, starting the aggression «in an epic rage» under a sound name, was planning a blitzkrieg in some Iranian version of Venezuela. But it seems to have gone seriously wrong. Iran has shown and is showing serious resistance to America and Israel, bringing unpredictability to world affairs in all directions.

Moreover, it can be argued that there is a certain difference between Trump’s goals and Israel’s goals in Iran. For Donald Trump, despite various statements, it does not matter what regime there is or will be in Iran: Islamic, non-Islamic, monarchical, republican, democratic, non-democratic. The most important thing for Trump is that any regime in that country follows his provisions, instructions and fulfills all his demands. Moreover, Trump “will not mind” if the current regime falls, and is doing everything possible for that. However, it seems that Mr. Trump would agree to leave Tehran alone if the latter ahead go to the terms of the US president.

Unlike Trump, the Islamic leadership of Iran does not satisfy the Israelis in principle. Because for them this regime represents a country that is the last in the world that does not recognize the possibility of the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. It is known that many Islamic countries do not have diplomatic relations with Israel, strongly criticize it, but none of them declares that Israel should disappear from the political map of the world. As a result, The main problem of Israel in Iran is the change of the regime or its destruction, if, of course, it succeeds. Still not working։

Thus, Trump and Israel have common goals for Iran tactically and operationally: the weakening of the regime and the weakening of the Islamic Republic.։ In turn, the strategic objectives are somewhat different. True, not so much that it affects the conduct of military operations. This difference is more theoretical. However, it also affects political practice.

About the Iranian-American negotiations

Thus, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was concerned about Trump’s statements about starting negotiations with Tehran. He is clearly concerned that the US president could strike a deal with Iran without regard to the Jewish state’s security interests, limiting Israel’s ability to strike Iranian territory.

A few words about the ongoing Iranian-American negotiations. Trump talks about them, Iranian politicians deny the fact of dialogue. Most likely is underway familiar with each other’s opinionsspring but not at a high level. Tehran insists that there are no talks, but does not deny that in the case of indirect contacts, the terms, or in other words the demands of the parties to end the war, are being exchanged through countries such as Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan. It was recently reported that China strongly and very convincingly advised US Vice President JD Vance and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to meet in Pakistan. It is not known how true this information is, and if so, whether such a meeting will take place at all or not.

At the same time, Trump is trying to convince everyone that the negotiations are also going on at a high level, hinting at the participation of Majlis Speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf. The Iranian mass media called such statements by the US president a “special psychological operation” aimed at creating division in their country. For the sake of objectivity, it should be stated that there are debates, not divisions, as evidenced by the heated debate within the elites regarding Tehran’s further actions.

It is possible that Trump pursues other goals. He announces the allegedly ongoing negotiations, for the success of which he agreed to postpone the total strike on Iran’s energy facilities, first for five days, then for ten days, until April 6. Such tactics by Trump could speak to his plans to buy time to move special forces troops, which include the famous 82nd Airborne Division, to the combat zone. These troops are intended to carry out local amphibious operations.

It cannot be ruled out that Trump hopes that the current, new leadership of Iran will make compromises with him and agree, if not to all American demands, then at least to some of them. And it will give Trump the coveted opportunity to declare a final victory over Iran. Although, in my opinion, such an option is unlikely. The mutual demands of the USA and Iran are contradictory.

Mutual exclusive claims of the parties to each other

like this The White House demands that Iran fulfill its demands. They boil down to the following.

1. The Strait of Hormuz will remain open and will be a free zone for ships.

2. The number and range of Iran’s ballistic missiles will be limited.

3. Iran will give up nuclear weapons. Uranium enrichment will not be carried out on the territory of Iran. Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves will be transferred to the IAEA. Nuclear facilities, including the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, the nuclear fuel production research center and plant at Isfahan, will be decommissioned and decommissioned. Iran is committed to ensuring full nuclear transparency and conducting appropriate independent inspections.

4. Iran will withdraw support and funding of its proxy groups in the Middle East, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Ansar Allah, Iraq’s Ghataib Hezbollah, and Palestine’s Hamas.

5. Iran will announce the end of the war with the USA and Israel.

6. Sanctions against Iran will be lifted. The sanctions recovery mechanism will be suspended.

7. The US will provide assistance to Iran in the development of civilian nuclear energy at the Bushehr facility.

In practice, these are all the demands that Washington was putting forward as early as June 2025, before the start of the first war.

For its part, Tehran is putting forward its own conditions for the cessation of hostilities։

1. The USA and its allies will fully compensate Iran for the damage caused by the war (there are still no approximate estimates of this damage).

2. Consolidates Iran’s control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with the possibility of charging a toll for passage, similar to Egypt’s control over the Suez Canal.

3. The US gives Iran guarantees of non-aggression, including from American allies (first of all, Israel).

4. Israel stops the operation against the Hezbollah group in Lebanon.

5. The US closes all military bases in the Middle East (they are in all the countries of the Persian Gulf: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, as well as in Iraq, Jordan and Syria).

6. All sanctions are removed from Iran.

7. Iran’s missile program is not subject to any restrictions.

It is doubtful that the US and Iran will be able to reach not only a mutual agreement, but also an understanding of the enemy’s positions based on the above-mentioned requirements to each other.: The official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Baghai, has already confirmed that the conflict resolution plan addressed to the US contains unrealistic demands, reports “Al-Jazeera”. In addition, Baghai again emphasized that Iran did not participate in the negotiations with the USA.

As for Israel, it is seen in Tehran as a vassal of America, unworthy of mention except as an “illegitimate Zionist regime”. But sometimes that “Zionist tail wags the imperialist dog”, insisting on pursuing an increasingly tough policy towards Iran.

On March 19, Netanyahu gave a summary of the results of the 20 days of the war. And he, in particular, mentioned the three goals of his anti-Iranian “lion’s roar” operation: the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of ballistic potential and the creation of conditions in which the Iranian people will be able to take their destiny into their own hands. In other words, to prepare a revolution. Mr. Netanyahu was more succinct than Mr. Trump, but looked forward to the revolutionary prospect. This once again confirms that Israel does not want to reconcile with the existence of the current Islamic regime in Iran.

The time to attack Iran was not chosen by chance. the situation in and around the Republic of Iran is critical

It seems that Trump and Netanyahu did not choose the time to attack Iran by chance. Let’s not say whether one or the other had internal political reasons for starting their “victorious” war. Focusing on Iran, it would be fair to say that in the eyes of Trump and Netanyahu, the Islamic Republic looked extremely weak in late 2025-early 2026.

It seems that the pro-Iranian “axis of resistance” created in the Middle East by the legendary IRGC general Soleimani, according to analysts, Iran’s unique “nuclear bomb”, is almost eliminated.։ Its most formidable members, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, are themselves fighting for survival.

The Houthis in Yemen (who have already declared war on the US and Israel and have fired missiles at Israel) and various Shiite militias in Iraq may carry out isolated strikes on ships or American land bases in the Red Sea, but they are unlikely to seriously affect the overall course of the war. Although, this war shows that all this created a real crisis in the world economy in all different directions.

A tense situation has arisen between Iran and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Tehran has carried out large-scale operations to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has created painful problems not only for the Gulf countries, which are exporters of hydrocarbons, but also for a large number of importers, consumers of Middle Eastern oil and gas, who have finally spoken out against Tehran’s actions.

Recently, there was even a call from the Persian Gulf countries to the USA, which asked Washington to finally solve the “Iranian issue” and eliminate the threat from Tehran. In addition, there they announced their readiness to support America and Israel. Moreover, if at first the Arab monarchies were neutral and even sympathized with Iran, seeing it as a victim of aggression, which is the case, then after Iran attacked them and the American military bases, closing the Strait of Hormuz, they came out against Tehran, already being in solidarity with the USA and Israel.

The situation around Iran is complicated by the difficult situation created inside the country։ It is expressed in many areas. One month of combat operations has dealt a significant blow to the country’s governance system. From the very beginning of the aggression, the Americans and Israelis started a hunt against the leadership of the country, and on the first day they killed the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, on March 18, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, an influential politician, who, in fact, took control of the country, was killed. Many military and state leaders were killed and wounded during the war. And it has been going on for a month.

However, It is known that after the 12-day war, a clear system was created in Iran to replace the dead leaders. Three or four candidates are “fixed” for each official position in the military and state apparatus in case of the “resignation” of the current leader. In other words, after the death of a commander or some statesman, another person has already been appointed in his place, and he takes the position of the deceased without delay. Thus, a new layer of leaders instantly appears.

It’s no secret that the Americans and Israelis are trying to reach the level of military and politicians with these cynical murders, who would agree to the terms and ultimatums of Trump and Israel, and would essentially sign the capitulation of Iran. However, against the wishes of the Americans and Israelis, the generals of the IRGC, hardened in the battles of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), are coming to new positions.

Thus, the commander of the corps in that war, General Mohsen Rezai, became the chief military advisor of Mojtaba Khamenei. Mohammad Bagher Zolkadr, another IRGC general, who once held the post of IRGC deputy commander and head of the Joint Staff coordinating the operations of the IRGC and the army, was appointed as the successor of the murdered Larijani as the Secretary of the National Security Council. Later, he held high positions in the judicial system of Iran. It is impossible not to mention the current leader of the Mejlis, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who is also a general of the IHPK.

These facts prove that after the death of Khamenei, there were clear signs that a soft coup by the IRGC took place in the Islamic Republic, as a result of which the IRGC took the supreme power in its hands under the conditions of American-Israeli aggression. Although before that, of course, the corps was very influential economically, politically, and militarily, but now it has in its hands almost all the levers of management of the centralized state.. On behalf of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, whether he is alive or not, sick or healthy, the top leaders of the IRGC exercise supreme power in the current regime. It is noteworthy that Mojtaba Khamenei, the third leader in the history of the Republic of Iran, who was elected to that position with the support of the IRPC, has never once made a speech not only in front of the people, but also has not yet made any audio or video announcements.

In connection with the increased role of the IRGC, some disagreements arose between Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian (de facto deposed) and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi on issues of war and peace.: Pezeshkian criticized the corps’ approach to the escalation of the conflict and continued attacks on neighboring countries, warning of serious economic consequences. The president demanded to return governance to civilian authorities, but Vahidi rejected that demand. The strengthening of the role of the IRGC during the war, confirmed even by American experts, shows the country’s resilience and ability to adapt to the loss of many high-ranking military and civilian officials.

War, Economy and US Plans

The war, with its destruction and victims, exhausts the economic potential of Iran, which was in a systemic crisis in many areas even before the war.

Moreover, if we talk about the economy, for now the oil and gas industry is preserved, but, as can be understood, the aggressors, the USA and Israel, want to leave it for later, so that later, after the war, it will be possible to orient the entire oil and gas industry under their leadership in the direction that is beneficial to them, first of all, to the USA and Trump. Therefore, the situation, taking into account Trump’s demands, is extremely difficult, and it can be said that there are not many prospects for its improvement.

Donald Trump and the Race Against Time

How long will this war last? No one knows it, including its initiator, US President Donald Trump։ However, despite this, it can be boldly stated that Trump is in temporary grips. He needs a victory as soon as possible. Moreover, the victory is not in the universally accepted classical concept. It is about “his” victory, where certain tasks and goals are set, which Trump will declare accomplished. “Keeping his finger on the pulse” and looking at his watch all the time, Trump is constantly turning to Congress.

As a reminder, on November 3, 2026, mid-term elections for the US House of Representatives, Senate, as well as many other federal, regional and local elections are scheduled. Their results may to some extent determine the fate of the Republican Party and, accordingly, Trump.

That’s why Trump needs a quick and “victorious” war in order to show his achievements in Congress before the elections and that he is the “salvation” of the Republicans. Therefore, Trump is certainly “limited” on time, as it follows from some Israeli sources that he expects another 4, 6 weeks of war at the most. It is doubtful whether the Americans will be able to “fulfill” the problems conceived by Trump.

The US president has put himself (yes, the entire US) in a wall position. Declaring victory without the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unrealistic (although according to some sources, abandoning the idea is being discussed). It is not possible to solve this problem only with aerial missile strikes. It means that a ground or local amphibious operation is necessary.

In recent days, the question of the large-scale ground operation of the US troops has been raised more often. But it is quite clear that it is impossible. Iran has a population of 93 million and, accordingly, many armed forces: the army, plus the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), 600-900 thousand people (according to various sources).

Ground troops represent a significant majority in the combined armed forces. They are numerous and equipped with quite modern weapons and combat equipment. And, of course, we should not forget about the “Basij” personnel who have been preparing for defense for years in each of the 31 provinces of Iran. This militia plays a huge role in the implementation of the ground defense of the country in the plans of the Iranian General Staff, up to the protection of even small settlements. According to the latest data, more than one million Iranians have already been mobilized in case of a US ground invasion in the southern direction of the country.

And in this regard, in order to carry out a ground operation in Iran, the Americans will have to send at least 400,000, or maybe 500,000 army soldiers with a huge amount of combat equipment, which will have to fight in the most difficult climatic and geographical conditions under the conditions of a powerful general defense.: Calling out such numbers, one can understand that it is impossible to wage such a struggle, because there will be huge casualties on the American side. With such losses, the Trump administration and all Republicans will look extremely disadvantaged in the November midterm elections. And not just in elections, but in the eyes of every American today, tomorrow and always.

Moreover, a ground invasion of Iranian territory would undoubtedly unite the population in the face of the actual presence of foreign soldiers.. And if today many Iranians dissatisfied with the Islamic regime look with hope to the “untouchable” destruction of the objects of the regime and government structures that do not satisfy them, then after the American boots enter the Iranian soil, everything can radically change.

Therefore, there is confidence that it will not be a large-scale ground operation, but certain short-term landing operations with relatively small forces to solve certain specific problems are quite real. A contingent of 2,500 US Marines and 2,500 sailors as part of the USS Tripoli amphibious assault group has already arrived in the theater of operations. Transport planes, strike fighters, landing equipment and tactical units are located on the ship.

82 Airborne transports are expected, the US Army’s main rapid response unit of the Division (The 82nd Airborne Division, with a crew of 18․000-20․000, includes three infantry brigade combat groups, an aviation brigade, a division artillery, a logistics brigade, and many specialized units: engineering, intelligence, electronic warfare, and air defense.

Each brigade combatant the group includes approximately 3․800-4․200 troops, three parachute battalions, a cavalry reconnaissance squadron, an artillery battalion with 18 M119A3 105mm howitzers, an engineer battalion and a logistics battalion. The basic principle is “18 hours”. This is the period during which the division must be ready to deploy anywhere in the world. This criterion determines everything: build, weapons, training and rotation)։ The unit is designed to land on the enemy’s territory with the capture and protection of key facilities: airports, ports, road intersections, industrial complexes.

The targets of those amphibious forces could possibly be the capture of Khark Island in the Persian Gulf, through which more than 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass. Israel and the US certainly know the cost, so they hit the military facilities on the island, various points, but the oil infrastructure and naval bases were not touched.

Why, because most likely, the United States intends to seize Khark Island in order to trade with Iran on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, or, if Tehran does not agree, to control the export of Iranian oil. It is not excluded that the US command envisages the capture of other islands near the sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as, possibly, the Iranian coast of the Persian Gulf, in order to resolve the Hormuz issue by force.

It is safe to assume that such a local, yet large-scale amphibious operation will be followed by a powerful response from Iran, which will naturally lead to a sharp increase in the number of American casualties. It is a disaster for Trump. Neither the Congress, nor the Republican Party, nor the Americans will forgive him the multi-million victims. Trump’s situation is desperate. it is impossible to leave without the liberation of the Strait of Hormuz, it is impossible to solve this problem without an amphibious operation, the operation will lead to a large number of victims and, as a result, a political collapse for Donald Trump.

Moreover, as noted above, the American boot, even in the small Iranian islands, will fuel a wave of Persian patriotism and anti-Americanism, only strengthening the current government in Iran.

What scenario is possible for the Islamic Republic after the end of the war?

Today, predicting options for the development of events, different scenarios, is a thankless task. Too many incoming factors, too many facts unknown to observers, and sometimes secret plots that change the situation every day and every hour.

The main scenario is realistic: Iran will exist, there is no doubt about it. The question is, in what way? The Islamic Republic of Iran is unlikely to survive in its pre-war form. Yes, maybe with the old name and old state and political attributes, but it will be another Islamic republic, led not by old veterans of the Islamic Revolution, but by young Islamic Revolutionary Corps guards, pragmatists and outward-looking businessmen.

VLADIMIR SAZIN

Candidate of historical sciences

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Lusine Martirosyan writes: “During the day, we regularly visit Davit.

Today, compared to yesterday, the feeling was worse: headache, dizziness, high blood pressure. David was not well…

The only hope is that he is under the supervision of doctors…”

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If there is one political agenda, it is this: is the Third Republic closing down and is a “fourth republic” being created? Pashinyan is going exactly that way. The biggest task of the opposition is to clearly show its position in this opposition. All principled disagreements should begin and end with the fact that those who are in the opposition are the guardians of the Third Republic. 168TVof « expressed such an opinion during the program Head of YSU European Studies Center, candidate of political science, associate professor Vladimir Martirosyan.

“In this competition, Pashinyan’s proposal is much more mature, short and specific. The opposition society avoids the fact that it is the custodian of the current Constitution, also a political follower of Artsakh’s sovereignty, the return of the people of Artsakh, and the protection of further rights. If this important difference does not exist, then the possibility of choice decreases, where the entire political elite, whether Pashinyan or opposition, talks about the same political line, with a certain difference in the ideas of its implementation,” said the political scientist.

“However, Pashinyan dictates the agenda, and the opposition becomes a direct response to that agenda. The ideological principle of being the guardian of the Third Republic, whether it is easy, difficult, feasible or not, especially during the election period, as a political proposal, is flawed by the opposition. “Is the opposition trying to fit into Pashinyan’s game rules and political system, or is it trying to create its own game rules and system, that is, to show an alternative to Pashinyan’s system,” said Vladimir Martirosyan.

According to the political scientist, the half-words, half-ideas and half-fears of the opposition are very obvious, and Pashinyan plays on them and manipulates them.

“Pashinyan’s activities are very wild from a political point of view. The opposition will either have the opportunity to dictate its own rules, or it will be placed in the positions that Pashinyan will decide within his own system. Today, Pashinyan defines who will have what rights, who will not have rights, where the portion of rights begins and ends, etc.

“Pashinyan is in a sprint campaign. He understands that his obligations are many, and they must be injected into all pores of the society. This is achieved with great difficulty. Every weekend, at least for the last period, we observe how it turns into an anti-Pashinyan campaign at its own hands. For example, the metro incident revived perceptions about Artsakh, and society gave a proper response to this,” said Vladimir Martirosyan.

Details in the video

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