During the 44-day war, officers of the police and penitentiary institutions

April 11, 2026

168.amsent written requests RA Investigative Committee and: RA General Prosecutor’s Office, through which, in particular, we tried to find out how many cases of desertion there were from the National Security Service and the Police during the 44-day war. But both the Investigative Committee and the RA General Prosecutor’s Office stated in response to our questions. “There are no separate statistics on the mentioned issues” or «separate accounting is not carried out”.

Note that during the 44-day war, on October 26, 2020, the Police statement shared, referring to the video spread on social networks during the war, where a frontline police officer complains about living conditions and living conditions.

The police said at the time that the video was taken in the early days of the war, when the urgency of recruitment was still causing some problems, and that later all problems were resolved and combat duty soon became orderly.

“We urge and appeal to our citizens not to spread such materials without checking the circumstances, not to generalize private cases, and to inform the relevant authorities about such materials. The official investigation in relation to the mentioned video is ongoing. Appropriate measures will be taken according to the results of the examination.” was mentioned in the Police report.

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  • The RA Investigative Committee does not have “up-to-date” data on desertion during the 44-day war

Let us add that during the days of the 2020 war, former Artsakh president Arayik Harutyunyan, who is in Baku today, made “accusations” against the RA NSS units, that the RA NSS unit rejected his request to go to “Eghnikin” during the 44-day visit.

From NSS to us in 2022 had reported that no criminal proceedings have been initiated in this regard, but an official investigation was carried out.”

And in response to our question on the same topic, in 2025, the NSS wrote in its letter had mentioned.“As for the presence of criminal proceedings, to get the mentioned information, you can apply to the pre-investigative body that manages the information.”

However, there is no information about any criminal cases against the NSS officers for refusing the request of the former president of Artsakh or for desertion among them.

Instead, we have in our hands exclusive documents related to the 44-day period in relation to the police. They are, in particular, refer to more than 100 employees of the Armavir Regional Department of the RA Police, who refused military service after leaving for Artsakh under martial law, but as a result were freed from criminal prosecution.

The relevant decision states that on October 4, 2020, they left for the village of Mekhakavan in the Hadrut region of the Republic of Azerbaijan in order to participate in combat operations, but on October 7, as a group, they refused to fulfill their military service duties to participate in the combat operations taking place in the Republic of Azerbaijan, which was combined with their actual cessation.

In addition, it is reported that upon reaching the indicated place, they were deployed on the hills, lined up in a straight line 4-5 km long according to battalions and companies, and began to dig half-ruined trenches, which were 40-50 cm deep and could not be noticed by the enemy only in a lying position. As mentioned, they stayed in that area for 2 days in the rain-filled trenches, without participating in any contact combat operations, during those days they also ran out of food, no instructions were received, and no reinforcements were brought.

 

 

What is described here supports the claims that during the days of the war there was complete confusion in important directions, or organized disorganization, and we are still surprised that we lost the war. On the other hand, such cases emphasize the heroism of 18-20-year-old soldiers, army officers, and command. And nothing that Anna Hakobyan and: Nikol Pashinyan by desertion they mainly mean the army and the military.

Of course, for the sake of justice, it should be noted here that in the 44-day war, the Police gave more than 4 dozen victims, and among them there were also heroic fighters.

And we also have exclusive documents regarding about 200 officers of different penal institutions of the RA Ministry of Internal Affairs, who, under the declared martial law, in October 2020, when there was a war in Artsakh, in order to finally avoid military service, voluntarily left their assigned combat positions with the weapons entrusted to them for service, returned to military units, surrendered their weapons, refusing to go to the front line, but were later freed from criminal prosecution.

It should be noted that on October 5, 2020, with the participation of then Minister of Justice Rustam Badasyan and Head of the Penitentiary Service, Major General of Justice Artur Goyunyan had happened The event of sending the CPC volunteer assembly company to the front.

Badasyan said in his welcome speech. “We are dealing with a new pan-Turkish plan, we are dealing with the involvement of terrorist mercenaries in war operations, who opposed the victorious resistance of a brave Armenian soldier. I am also sure that you all realize that the future of our motherland is only in our hands, and only we will be able to protect our motherland from the enemy.”

The head of the Penitentiary Service, Justice Major General Artur Goyunyan highly appreciated the desire of the devotees of the system to enlist in the sacred work of defending the motherland and expressed his belief that everyone will return victorious, and everyone’s names will be written in golden letters in the history of the service.

By the way, let’s remind that we also wrote about the way of contract workers in Tavush during the war about closing there were people accused of this fact.

Later was information received also that 18 servicemen of the 3rd Army Corps were charged, they refused to go to Artsakh during the war. There is information that some of them are also acquitted, but this is a matter for a separate discussion.

Nicole is busy exploiting peace, but the war against Iran has exploded

April 11, 2026

Nicole’s main trump card is, of course, “peace”, but she is busy exploiting peace. From the beginning, it was obvious that the peace he preached did not have any institutional features. They talked about the irreversibility of establishing peace, when only three facts – the presence of prisoners, the unadjusted borders and the unsigned treaty – contradict all these claims. All the weight was placed on the TRIPP document, and that last bubble burst after the start of the Iran war. 168TVof « expressed such an opinion during the program “Democratic Alternative” party chairman Suren Surenyants.

“In case of any outcome of the war, TRIPP loses its relevance, and even if it is not canceled, at least as a document, it will need serious editing. It will not be considered a priority by the White House. Pashinyan also realizes this. If he didn’t know, he wouldn’t have asked Putin for a meeting at this pre-election stage. He understands very well that no matter what he says, all his bubbles, including the main one, peace, have burst. “Now he is trying to weave a new legend by meeting with Putin, but that didn’t work out for him either,” said the opposition figure.

“During the meeting between Putin and Pashinyan, we heard an unusual conversation for our ears. A very legitimate question arises: what did this person rely on, only an apathetic society? His only supporter is not even Aram Sargsyan, because all those political bubbles managed to burst perfectly before the start of the election cycle, especially in the context of the Iran war. In our society, there were illusory ideas about the humanitarian West, but they obviously came to nothing,” said the politician.

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According to Suren Surenyants, our society has begun to rethink a number of illusions that were widespread even a year ago.

“Putin had several pragmatic reasons for addressing Artsakh during his meeting with Pashinyan. He sent a message to Baku, and that message was understood there. Putin plays the Artsakh issue in a more global picture when he needs it. But he also sent a message to the Armenian people. Putin clearly said that they will no longer tolerate Armenia sitting on two chairs. There was a diplomatic speech that we heard from Putin’s lips, but there was also a very dry text delivered by Overchuk.”

“The Russians strictly warned: don’t put the destruction of Artsakh in our pockets anymore. Nikol Pashinyan does not understand that he is the one who puts an end to the conflict. As the leader of the conflicting party, he himself signed a document on the termination of the main dispute of the conflict. Even the document of November 9, which was a fairly balanced document for defeated Armenia, did not predetermine the status of Nagorno Karabakh, on the contrary, it fixed the subjectivity of Nagorno Karabakh with several parameters, for example, the contact line,” said Suren Surenyants.

Details in the video




168: Our War Is Not Over… The Whole of Azerbaijan Can Be Fragmented. Hayk N

April 11, 2026

The United States suffered a moral defeat in the war against Iran. Even before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire, Trump opened a way for him to retreat. He expressed such an opinion 168 TVof Revue on the air of the program Colonel of the Armed Forces Reserve, military expert Hayk Nahapetyanspeaking about the results of the 40-day war of the United States and Israel against Iran and the prospects of the US-Iran negotiation process launched in Pakistan.

According to a military expert, the Islamic Republic of Iran, which faced two nuclear powers, the United States and Israel, is actually winning this war. Hayk Nahapetyan assigns an important place to the support of Russia and China in Iran’s military success. According to a military expert, with the results of such a war, Iran’s influence in the region will increase significantly, while Turkey’s weight will drop sharply.

Speaking about the issue of what lessons can be learned from the war against Iran and the effective defense of Iran, the military expert also touched on the topic of the undisguised territorial ambitions of the Republic of Azerbaijan towards Iran and Armenia, noting that the so-called “western Azerbaijan”, “southern Azerbaijan” and “great Azerbaijan” ideas are encouraged and advanced in Azerbaijan at the highest state level. The military expert emphasizes that all this should be known not to cause panic, but to understand the extent of the danger. The expert also emphasizes: “our war is not over. we have only lost a great battle»։

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  • Iran has significantly strengthened its geopolitical positions. I don’t think military operations with such intensity will resume after 2 weeks. David Jamalyan

According to Hayk Nahapetyan, Aliyev understands very well that if he goes on a military adventure against Iran, “All of Azerbaijan can become a fragment»։

Full interview in the video.




Armenpress: Pashinyan says stadiums will be built in all communities of Armeni

Armenia17:53, 11 April 2026
Read the article in: ArmenianRussian:

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has announced that the construction of stadiums in all communities has been added to the pre-election program of the Civil Contract party following his recent regional visits.

The Prime Minister made the statement during a tour in the city of Spitak, responding to a request from local children for a stadium.

“The item ‘Construction of 100 combined stadiums in all communities of the Republic’ has been added to the program,” the Prime Minister said, adding that these facilities will be designed for both football and basketball.

Pashinyan assured that, under the plan, all communities will have such stadiums by 2031. He added that the process will begin with settlements where such stadiums are currently lacking.

Read the article in: ArmenianRussian:

Published by Armenpress, original at 

Azerbaijani News: Bus escorting Pashinyan’s motorcade crashes, 1 killed, 12 i

Bus escorting Pashinyan’s motorcade crashes, 1 killed, 12 injured-PHOTO

11 April 2026 10:51 (UTC +04:00)

A police bus escorting the motorcade of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been involved in an accident, the press service of the Ministry of Internal Affairs stated, APA reports.

According to the information, one person was killed and 12 others were injured as a result of the incident.

All the injured have been hospitalized.

A criminal case has been initiated over the incident.

Verelq: The first Eurasian sports cooperation is being held in Armenia

The first conference of Eurasian sports cooperation is being held in Armenia.

The presidents and general secretaries of the national Olympic committees of different countries are participating in the event, and they were received by the NAOC president Gagik Tsarukyan.

The conference is an important platform for deepening cooperation and strengthening ties between sports structures of the region.


National Olympic Committee of Armenia




168: The courtship ends. what price will Armenia pay?

April 11, 2026


The foreign policy adopted by Nikol Pashinyan and his team is experiencing a fiasco, creating serious threats for Armenia and the Armenian people. In the context of the reckless steps and statements of today’s rulers to change foreign orientations, Russia has started to warn openly and at a high level about the challenges that the Armenian people may face on that road.

Armenia is a member of EAEU and receives great benefits as a result of its membership. The high economic growth of recent years, of which they are so proud, is also a result of this.

However, ignoring all that and the advantages that EAEU membership gives to Armenia, the CP administration, paying tribute to the aspirations of its European patrons, has decided to lead the country down the path of turmoil, knowing full well that the EAEU and the EU are absolutely incompatible with each other. And along the way, Armenia will have to make a choice, which Nikol Pashinyan was once again reminded of during his regular visit to Russia, this time through the mouth of the Russian President.

In its aspirations for European integration, the Armenian authorities will have to make a choice, but if this continues, they may not even have time to make a choice. In Russia, they have already started talking about the fact that Armenia is very close to the critical point when Russia will have to rebuild its economic relations with it.

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What is meant by the reconstruction of economic relations with Armenia is very clear and understandable, especially when the country is completely unprepared for such turning changes.

It is not the case that Armenia is forced or obliged to depend on Russia all the time and simply has no way to go elsewhere. But before that, you have to be ready for it first. As for how ready Armenia is today, there is nothing to even discuss.

The fact that Armenia’s economy has always been connected with Russia’s economy by key ties: export and consumer markets, imports of many vital goods, cooperation in various sectors of the economy, etc., is not new.

Russia accounts for 30-35 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade, and up to 40 percent in some years. It is expressed both in the form of exports and imports.

What is very important for the economy of Armenia itself, almost a third of Armenian products are consumed in the Russian market.

In recent years, Armenia’s foreign trade dependence on Russia has deepened even more. Aiming to lead the country on the path of European integration, the authorities did not even take steps to weaken this dependence.

Under such conditions, if Russia decides to unilaterally review economic relations with Armenia, it means not only being deprived of the opportunities to consume the Russian market, but also to import a number of vital products, and import them under preferential terms.

First of all, we are talking about Russian gas, on which not only the energy system of Armenia, but also the entire economy is based.

As before, Armenia receives Russian gas on preferential terms. Without further ado, Nikol Pashinyan was reminded of this in Russia, at the level of the Russian President.

“As of today, you know, the prices of energy carriers, let’s say gas, in some places in Europe exceed 600 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Russia sells gas to Armenia for $177.5 per thousand cubic meters. The difference is big,” said the Russian President.

The hint is very simple. Armenia receives Russian gas on preferential terms, and that is the political price given to Armenia. That price reaches several hundred million dollars only for gas.

If you are in the EU, you should be ready to buy gas at the price at which it is sold in international markets. In that case, Russian gas can be at least twice, if not three times more expensive for Armenia, with serious consequences. Even at today’s gas prices, Armenia’s economy is unable to compete in the foreign and domestic markets in many cases. It is difficult to imagine how it will compete even in the event of a doubling of gas prices.

Today, Armenia receives more than 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia annually. This is more than 82 percent of the gas entering Armenia. Armenia pays a preferential price for that gas, but even at that price it amounts to 390-400 million dollars annually.

Now imagine how much it will be in the event of a double or even triple price increase.

The increase in gas prices, in addition to the fact that it will destroy many branches of the economy, will also lead to widespread price increases. In turn, the citizen will have to pay a much higher price for gas consumption.

The hopes of importing gas from other countries, including Azerbaijan, with which the authorities have been trying to feed the public in recent years, are in vain. Even if Azerbaijan is able to supply gas to Armenia, it will not be cheap gas. Not counting how dependent Armenia will be on the enemy country.

Iranian gas, which is much more expensive, cannot be an alternative to Russian preferential gas. It is not surprising that once the former authorities were accused of deliberately not importing Iranian gas, after coming to power, today’s rulers of Armenia quickly forgot about buying gas from Iran.

Gas is just one commodity that Armenia may face in case of revision of economic relations with Russia. But the list of those products is not only limited to gas. No less important is the Russian market, which is irreplaceable for Armenian products. To be suddenly deprived of all this, for the sake of what the hearts of the authorities and their European patrons want, is something other than deliberately dragging the country into another catastrophe, it is difficult to call it.

HAKOB KOCHARYAN



Fatal accident involving a police guard bus

April 11, 2026

This morning, the police guard bus left for Lori on the same route as the bus full of police officers headed by Nikol Pashinyan to Lori, probably to ensure the safe movement of Nikol Pashinyan. And a car accident with a tragic outcome took place with the participation of that bus.

168.am was informed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs that the traffic accident took place on the Kuchak-Apara road.

“On April 11, around 7:50 a.m., a Honda bus of the MIA police guard and a Nissan car collided with each other on the Kuchak-Apara road.

According to preliminary data, 1 person died as a result of the traffic accident, and 12 people sought medical help.

Criminal proceedings have been initiated,” the Ministry of Internal Affairs said.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs also shared a photo from the accident site.

Resource reserves and control of Iran from the north. US Geological Survey

April 11, 2026

are outlined US priorities in Armenia

Deputy Prime Minister of Russia Alexei Overchuk w:recently given to TASS agency in a detailed interview, in particular, gave a subject description to the long-standing project of the restoration of railway communication between the main territory of Azerbaijan, the autonomy of Nakhichevan and Turkey through the Syunik Marz of Armenia and the North Bank of Araks:

“From the point of view of Baku, the “Zangezur Corridor” is important for the restoration of the connection between the two parts of the country, the opening of direct communication with Turkey, and the development of Azerbaijan as a Eurasian transport-logistics crossroads. For Washington, the “Trump Route” is an international transport corridor that ensures the export of critical minerals from Central Asia to the US, as well as controls Iran’s northern border.

For Moscow, the road passing through Meghri is an opportunity to improve transport links with another EEU member state, Armenia, as well as to improve access to the markets of Iran and Turkey. For Tehran, it is a competitive path and a threat from the US. For Ankara, this is the most convenient exit to Azerbaijan and the states of Central Asia. For Yerevan, the Meghri sector is an opportunity to unblock the country, realize the advantages of its geographical location and give an additional impetus to the development of its own economy. Our and Armenia’s interests coincide in this matter.

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Along with that: «understandable to professional internationalists՝ the entry of foreigners into the South Caucasus will disrupt the security balance created thereThe war between the USA and Iran shows how quickly all the countries in the region are involved in these events, which never thought that these events could happen. influence themselves:

The drone strikes had an immediate impact on the Nakhichevan area «North-South» on transportation through the international transport corridor and did not inspire confidence among investors who want to invest in the rehabilitation of the Meghri sector. In fact, due to its decision to stop cooperation with our country, Armenia has received new, very serious threats that it did not have before»:

To remind, as a result of negotiations held in Washington on January 13, RA Foreign Minister and Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a joint statement on the framework and implementation of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) Armenian-Azerbaijani program.

The document envisages the launch of a mechanism for the formation of “multimodal transit interconnection” through the territory of Armenia, including the connection of the main part of Azerbaijan to the Nakhichevan autonomy through the same Meghri section and the integration of the entire corridor into the assumed Trans-Caspian transport route. The share of the USA in the supposed TRIPP Development Company will be 74 percent, while Armenia will have only 26 percent.

The colonial interest in Armenia’s natural resources was once again mentioned by the US deputy ambassador in Yerevan, Andrew Johnson, who presented in detail is The essence of White House policy… “The USA and Armenia are actively discussing and expanding cooperation in the field of mining and geological exploration. Our shared goal is to create an industry that will attract responsible investment. The USA shows that Armenia’s geological and mining sectors attract serious long-term partners. American companies bring advanced technology, high standards and a commitment to transparency and accountability. It is not surprising that the US considers Armenia’s geological and mining potential as a strategic asset.

With transparent and sustainable development, it can promote economic growth, maintain regional stability and create opportunities for future generations. We stand ready to support those efforts.

States are willing to share their expertise “through institutions such as the US Geological Survey and other US government and academia partners” who are willing to “explore opportunities to collaborate on geologic mapping and data, professional training, and environmental and social best practices … (in the past) there have been productive negotiations between our governments on these issues.” For Armenian geologists, your work determines solutions in the fields of infrastructure, energy, water and mineral resources.”

According to available information, in mid-November 2025 in Yerevan, the US Deputy Secretary of State Alison Hooker discussed the options of appropriation of mineral deposits by the US with financial and technical support (within the supposed long-term concession) in the south of Armenia. Despite the small territory of the republic, the Armenian SSR occupied one of the leading places in the Soviet Union with the sought-after reserves of “rare earths” and related raw materials. During the Soviet years, uranium reserves were discovered in Syunik and in a number of other places, but due to a number of circumstances, the matter never reached extraction. In addition to the Geological Survey’s strong interest, the topic of possible uranium development could be considered during Vice President JD Vance’s February visit.

It is not excluded that the American partners could be interested in the Lychkvaz-tei and Terterasar complex mines.The first of them is located 10-12 km northwest of the city of Meghri, which is the geographic center of the future “Trump” road. Also nearby is the Terterasar mine, which, according to observations made by Soviet geologists in the late 1980s, is a direct continuation of Lichkvaz-tey, with very similar geological and ore structure. At the end of 2011, according to official data, the total reserves of the two mines are: molybdenum and mixed ore: 3.755 million tons, copper: 15.499 thousand tons, gold: 20947.59 kg, silver: 135.1 tons, selenium: 19.2769 tons, tellurium: 31.73 tons, bismuth: 1434.548 tons, cadmium: 823.47 tons, arsenic: 11815.62 tons, lead: 19336.6 tons, zinc: 30431.5 tons, gallium: 22.035 kg (See: “Prospects and development paths of the mining and metallurgical industry in the Republic of Armenia”, Institute of Economics of the RA National Academy of Sciences, Yerevan, 2011)

According to the estimation of the Russian Polymetal periodical, the reliable resources of the Lichkvaz-tey mine in the early 2020s amounted to about 13.4 tons of gold, about 59 tons of silver and 15.9 thousand tons of copper (expected resources – 15-25% more). And the volumes of mining and ore supplies here (as in the neighboring Terterasar mine) are sketchy as before. However, some knowledgeable analysts do not rule out that this “partiality” of the data could have been agreed with the US Geological Survey.

In addition to the above, in the medium term not excluded Industrial appropriation of Meghrasar gold, Harutyunadzor, Marjan, Azatek gold polymetallic, Gladzor polymetallic, Kapan and Vaik copper, Hrazdan and Abovyan iron depositsFor almost two decades, no systematic geological studies, search and prospecting evaluation works using geophysical, geochemical, cartographic and other methods have been carried out in Armenia. Without the implementation of these works, the exploration reserves of many minerals are exhausted after a few years (A. Hovhannisyan Ways to improve the state administration system in the field of subsoil use of Armenia / Banber of the National Polytechnic University of Armenia. beh 3 (102), Yerevan 1999, p. 108-109 Metallurgy, Materials science, soil utilization. 2020. No. 1):

Earlier assumptions were made, that the “Trumpian” route could, among other things, be supplemented by supplies from Armenia’s largest taxpayer, the Zangezur copper-molybdenum plant.In 2024, 342 thousand tons of copper concentrate ($558 million) were exported from Armenia, and 78% (or $435 million) went to China. At the same time, the intensifying geopolitical competition, the US-Israeli aggression against Iran and the negative trends in Russian-Armenian relations call into question the implementation of previously widely advertised cross-border transport projects.

 Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

vpoanalytics.com

The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity Through Armenia Hits a

The Middle East Forum
April 11 2026

None of the Partners Professing to Seek Peace Is Sincere, and the TRIPP Serves No Economic Purpose

On August 8, 2025, President Donald Trump hosted Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House, where the two foreign leaders signed a peace agreement. The White House released a statement that the agreement, initiated under the Biden administration, is “a landmark achievement for international diplomacy that only President Trump could deliver.”

On January 13, 2026, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan returned to Washington to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss implementation of the agreed corridor across southern Armenia, which Trump insisted be named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Azerbaijan and Turkey could enjoy trade and transit across Armenia if they established diplomatic relations and ended their blockade.

If sincerity is the basis of peace, then the chances for a lasting solution are tiny. None of the partners professing to seek peace is sincere. Trump seeks a Nobel Prize and his name on signs. Rubio will play the loyal yes-man to keep his job, regardless of where his moral compass might point. The deeply unpopular Pashinyan—who increasingly seems like the Armenian version of former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili—rushes concessions to position himself as the only candidate in forthcoming elections who can deliver peace, no matter that under his watch, Armenia fought two wars and lost both badly. Aliyev, meanwhile, hopes to use the corridor to bifurcate Armenia’s Syunik province. Azerbaijan’s hostage-taking and kangaroo courts appear designed to humiliate Armenians and undermine peace more than achieve it.

The basic problem with the TRIPP is that it serves no economic purpose. Azerbaijan and Turkey could enjoy trade and transit across Armenia if they established diplomatic relations and ended their blockade. That is a decision that only Ankara can make, as Turkey calls the broader strategic shots for Azerbaijan.

Indeed, while Azerbaijan and Turkey argue they need a corridor to enable trade, they play Trump and Rubio for fools. The entire time that Aliyev whined about Armenia’s blockaded border being an impediment to trade, Azerbaijan directed its trade through Iran, a country whose trade relations with Azerbaijan exceed Armenia’s. Indeed, in 2022, Azerbaijan and Iran signed an agreement for a new transit corridor through Iran.

While Aliyev struts at the White House, local dynamics that have nothing to do with the United States or even Armenia shape his actions. Just as Azerbaijan used military force to end Nagorno-Karabakh’s constitutional autonomy, so, too, did Aliyev last month do the same thing with the landlocked exclave of Nakhchivan, which also had been an autonomous republic. Aliyev will now rule Nakhchivan through an appointed representative, ending any semblance of local rule and continuing Aliyev’s transformation of Azerbaijan into the Eritrea or North Korea of the Caucasus.

Aliyev’s powerplay over Nakhchivan suggests dark clouds on the horizon, both for Azerbaijan and potentially for the region. Aliyev is the scion of a family dynasty founded by his father Heydar, a former KGB agent and Central Committee Member of the Soviet Union, but one whose son is rumored to be autistic and two daughters hampered by their own personal and social problems, so managing a future transition will be difficult.

What is looming in Azerbaijan is a three-way mafia war, the outcome of which will determine the fate of the Aliyev dynasty.

While Aliyev was born in Baku at a time when Heydar was the local KGB chief, the Aliyev family roots itself in Nakhchivan, where Heydar himself was born. Over years of Aliyev’s rule, Vasif Talibov, chairman of the Supreme Assembly of the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic from 1995 until 2022, consolidated local control and transformed Nakhchivan into his own mafia fiefdom. A desire to kneecap competition best explains Aliyev’s decision to impose direct rule over Nakhchivan. It is the Azerbaijani equivalent of the New York Genovese crime family’s infiltration into the Patriarca family’s territory in Massachusetts. At the same time, tension grows between the powerful Pashayev family and Aliyev himself. His marriage was supposed to bring unity between the families but instead brought de facto divorce.

What is looming in Azerbaijan is a three-way mafia war, the outcome of which will determine the fate of the Aliyev dynasty. If the Aliyevs lose out, Ilham is likely to launch a new skirmish, if not war, against Armenia to restore an image of strength or use emergency provisions to imprison economic competitors or political threats.

The Nakhchivan mafia machinations also matter for TRIPP, as the Aliyevs, Talibovs, and others now battle over who will profit and receive protection from TRIPP trade. Trump’s love for triumphant ceremonies notwithstanding, if Trump and Rubio force TRIPP, they will bring not a peace about which the president and Pashinyan can brag, but rather, a spectacular collapse. There simply can be no lasting peace until Azerbaijan experiences real and lasting reform.