Category: News

Eurasian Economic Union Drafts Up Report On Suspending Armenia’s Participation

Torgomian Varazdat
RUSSIA’S PIVOT TO ASIA
Oct 21, 2026

Published on October 21, 2026

EN RU

Eurasian Intergovernmental Council members representing Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have presented a report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) due to Yerevan’s discussions of possible accession to the European Union.

The document will be submitted for consideration by Supreme Eurasian Economic Council members, heads of state of the EAEU members. Yerevan’s desire to propose joining the European Union means that if enacted, it cannot be a member of the EAEU at the same time. This has created uncertainty within the EAEU itself as its importers and exporters cannot be sure if the Armenian market will continue to be part of their remit. That interferes with their ability to plan ahead and make investments into the Armenian market. Suspending Armenia from the EAEU, while drastic, would allow some time to clarify the situation as well as illustrate to Yerevan what its trade and import-export market would be like if affiliated with the EU instead.   

The report has been drafted in furtherance of a joint statement issued by the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan on May 29, 2026.

The report provides information about the measures taken by Armenia to ensure its accession to the European Union, an analysis of compatibility of the legal framew0rks of the EAEU and the EU (including obligations of Armenia as a member of the EAEU and obligations deriving from the accession to the EU), information about legal mechanisms bound to prevent the risks stemming from Armenia’s decision to enter into the EU, and an evaluation of possible consequences of suspending the application of the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty to Armenia.

The report comprises information about measures taken by Armenia and aimed at joining the European Union, the review of compatibility of legal regimes in the EAEU and the EU, legal mechanisms called to prevent risks arising in consequences of the decision of Armenia to become the EU member-state, and assessments of possible implications of the EAEU membership suspension for Armenia.

Specific statements include:

Armenian Membership In The EAEU

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan do not wish to see Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU, however, the status of Armenia in the EAEU gives rise to questions in the light of Yerevan’s steps aimed at joining the European Union.

Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have the right to consider the suspension of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU until a referendum is held in Armenia on remaining in the EAEU or joining the EU.

Armenia’s Preparations To Join The EU

Armenia has not informed either the Eurasian Economic Commission or the EAEU member countries on its efforts to converge its legislation with the EU law. The fulfilment of these requirements needed to enter the EU by Armenia violate its obligations towards the EAEU.

Yerevan passed an ‘EU Integration Act’ in March 2025 to formally endorse and start the legislative process for European integration. That was followed by a high-level bilateral summit in Yerevan in May 2026, launching new infrastructure, transport, and energy initiatives. In addition, the EU provided a €270 million financial package running from 2024 through 2027 to boost socio-economic stability, and another €30 million in assistance through the European Peace Facility and the deployment of an EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) on Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan.

Suspension From EAEU

EAEU customs controls and taxation will be put in place towards Armenia if its EAEU membership is suspended.

In fiscal terms, at present, Armenia’s main international trade position is as follows:

Region/Country % Of Total Trade
Eurasian Economic Union 30%
United Arab Emirates 17.2%
China 12.5 %
European Union 12%
United States 1.7%

In other words, Yerevan is looking to replace its total trade with the EAEU with trade with the EU – a bloc with whom its actual total trade is 2.5 times less, and whose production costs are far higher. This would have inflationary impacts on the Armenian consumer. For example, Russia currently supplies Armenia with 99% of its wheat. Under the current EAEU agreements, that is imported duty free and costs on average, around €204 per tonne. 

Although the EU has responded to Armenia’s overtures by saying it would reduce tariffs on 80% of Armenian goods, there remains the price differential due to higher production costs. If Armenia joins the EU, it will import European wheat, where the current average price is €245, based on December Euronext Paris wheat futures. That commodity alone would see a price increase of 20% to the Armenian consumer. It is a pattern likely to be repeated across multiple commodity channels including other agricultural items as well as energy supplies.

The report also contains some impact analysis, stating that Armenia’s GDP would decline by 15.6%, inflation will grow by 14.9 percentage points, and consumption would decline by 14.6%. Armenian exports to the EAEU would decline by about 40%, while exports from the EAEU to Armenia will halve. The natural gas price for Armenia would be likely to increase by 69% from US$177.5 to US$300 per 1,000 cubic meters. The total trade turnover between Armenia and the EAEU would decline by 55.6%.

The next meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, at which they will discuss Armenia’s possible suspension within the EAEU, is due in December.

What Happens Next?

The EAEU’s report and the pending Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in just a few weeks – which could announce an Armenian suspension – will be met with considerable reactions in Yerevan and Brussels. Yerevan has already stated in would hold a referendum on joining the EU, however this is unlikely to be organised in time to meet the December deadline. The political debate in the country will intensify – not dissimilar to the UK media frenzy and politicking over the Brexit debate – which also involved the EU. An increase in anti-Russian (and EAEU) rhetoric can be expected to increase, while increasing rhetoric about the benefits of being part of the European Union will intensify – even though Armenia is landlocked and does not possess a border with the bloc.

A scenario where Armenia leaves the EAEU to join the EU appears to be both fiscally perilous and logistically problematic. The key will be a referendum to allow the Armenian people to decide – with a full-scale media war being waged within Armenia if a decision to hold one is announced. The claims and counterclaims will be full of misrepresentations and deceit – potentially amusing but deadly serious for Armenians. Yerevan would be intensely targeted by Brussels as a consolation prize for the EU’s failure to inflict a defeat upon Russia in Ukraine.

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Armenia Wants To Swap Territories With Azerbaijan To Resolve Exclave Problem –

Hovhannisian John
Eurasia Review
Oct 21, 2026
October 21, 2026

By Paul Goble

Key Takeaways:

  • Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has proposed exchanging four small Azerbaijani exclaves inside Armenia for the larger Armenian exclave of Artsvashen inside Azerbaijan to eliminate all enclaves and create a single continuous border, though Baku has not confirmed interest and Armenian officials say the issue is not yet under discussion.
  • The proposal revives earlier swap ideas involving larger territories such as Karabakh and Zangezur, which Azerbaijan once favored and Armenia opposed; Baku’s 2023 military recovery of Karabakh and the subsequent transit deal have reversed the power balance.
  • Analysts note that successful Central Asian land swaps, the depopulation of the remaining exclaves, and reduced Russian influence may make a limited exchange more feasible, though any territorial concession remains politically sensitive in Armenia and would likely require a referendum.

The future of four small remaining exclaves created based on ethnicity by the Soviets—three Azerbaijani ones inside Armenian borders and one larger Armenian one inside Azerbaijan—is again slowing down progress toward the signing of a peace accord in the South Caucasus. Armenian Nikol Pashinyan is now pushing for a swap, but Baku is less than enthusiastic. As a result, while Baku would like to sign a peace treaty now, Yerevan suggests it may be several years before that happens (OC-Media; Modern.az; Telegram/@Nikolpashinyan_PMofficial, October 14; Kavkaz Uzel, October 16).

Calls for such territorial exchanges have regularly marked relations between the two countries since the early 1990s. Then, the proposed swaps involved two larger territories: Armenian-populated Karabakh—which had been part of Azerbaijan since the 1920s but which Armenian forces occupied at the end of Soviet times—and Zangezur—the land bridge between Azerbaijan proper and its noncontiguous autonomy of Nakhchivan. Neither was a true exclave, but continuing talk about them and the opposition to that which such proposals generated earlier has continued to shape discussion about the smaller remaining true ones and made it more politically fraught (Window on Eurasia, May 21, 2021; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty via Reliefweb, June 9, 2000; see EDM, November 28, 2023).

Initially, Azerbaijan supported these larger territorial swaps while Armenia opposed them. Baku’s military preponderance, however, appears to have reversed this, with Azerbaijan retaking Karabakh by force and securing a U.S.-backed deal that reopened transit through Zangezur (U.S. State Department, January 2026; OC-Media, August 11).

Pashinyan, however, has now reopened the exclave issue, saying he has “the preliminary impression” that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev may be open to swaps for the exclaves (OC-Media, October 14). If true, this impression makes it more likely that such a swap will happen not only because of changes on the ground but also because of the successful use of land swaps in Central Asia. There are fears that no other path to a more permanent peace in the South Caucasus exists except through new military action to achieve the peace accord the two countries have already initialed (see EDM, June 30).

On October 14, Pashinyan said that he believes there should be “no enclaves or exclaves on either side of the border” between Armenia and Azerbaijan. He added that, to achieve such an arrangement, Yerevan and Baku should exchange territories of “corresponding sizes,” and said he believed Aliyev was prepared to agree (Telegram/@Nikolpashinyan_PMofficial; Kavkaz Uzel; OC-Media, October 14).

The swap the Armenian leader anticipates would transfer sovereignty over four Azerbaijani villages in Armenia—Karki, Barkhudarlyu, Yukhari, and Askipara—to Armenia, and sovereignty over the larger village of Artsvashen, now controlled by Baku, to Azerbaijan (OC-Media, October 14). That swap would leave the two countries almost the same size as they are now and, more importantly, with a single border without the ambiguities of exclaves/enclaves. (The same territory is an exclave or an enclave depending on which side of this debate is being discussed, which adds confusion for outsiders.)

Azerbaijani media outlets reported Pashinyan’s comments (Modern.az; Asbarez, October 14; Kavkaz Uzel, October 16; New Dosh, October 14). They did not specify, however, that Aliyev was open to them. Three follow-up statements by Armenian officials suggest that moves on this issue may not be immediate. The day after declaring the need to swap exclaves, Pashinyan said in a press briefing that Yerevan and Baku were not yet discussing the issue (Facebook/CivilNet.TV, August 28). Then his foreign minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, said the exclave issue “does not constitute an obstacle” to signing the peace agreement the two leaders had initialed (Azernews, October 16). He said Baku has not made it one. He added that it is “a sensitive one” and that “if there is an exchange of territories, this is an issue that must be put to a nationwide referendum,” not only because “enclaves and exclaves complicate the lives of countries at least from a technical standpoint even if their relations are excellent in every respect.”

Separately, Alen Simonyan, secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, said that Armenia has not agreed with Baku on this issue and that Armenia has neither surrendered nor would surrender any territory to Azerbaijan (Azernews, October 16). This statement reflects how deeply unpopular such steps would be in Armenia (see EDM, April 23, 2024).  

Despite Yerevan officials’ qualifications and Baku’s corresponding silence, three reasons suggest a territorial swap to resolve the exclave issue may still go forward. First and most important, such swaps in Central Asia have been enormously successful, ending open military conflicts and paving the way for unprecedented cooperation among those five post-Soviet countries (see EDM, June 30).

That success, and Azerbaijan’s growing involvement in Central Asia, make it likely that Baku will be more open to the idea than before. Second, most of the enclaves involved have been depopulated as their former Armenian or Azerbaijani residents have left. Consequently, and despite the international community’s general aversion to changes in international borders, transferring sparsely populated territories from one state to the other is less of a problem than moving densely populated territories.

Third, opposition to border changes that animated earlier suggestions by this author and others that Yerevan and Baku swap Karabakh for Zangezur has declined. This decline has occurred because of the passage of time and the implicit acceptance of sovereignty shifts elsewhere; the decline in Russian influence in the South Caucasus; the interest by the United States, Europe, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in developing transit across the region; and both the past successes of the Azerbaijani military in retaking areas occupied by Armenia and in the near certainty that it could do the same with other areas, including the exclaves, if it chose to.

In such a situation, swapping small, largely unpopulated areas to prevent that from happening and open the region to expanded trade almost certainly appears to an increasing number of officials in Yerevan, Baku, and other capitals as less a problem and more an opportunity than it was earlier. It is likely to continue to animate opposition among many Armenians, however, who see any territorial retreat as a threat to their country’s future. (On why earlier discussions likely matter less now, see Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty via Reliefweb, June 9, 2000.)

Because of these factors, Pashinyan’s call for a territorial swap and Aliyev’s failure to react negatively to it immediately matter far more than a first glance might suggest. A territorial swap would not only undo yet another part of the Soviet inheritance that has restricted Armenia’s opportunities in the past, but also open the door to a genuine peace agreement.

  • This article was published by The Jamestown Foundation

About Paul Goble

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. He has served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Goble maintains the Window on Eurasia blog and can be contacted directly at [email protected] .

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Armenpress: Serbia will not face French-style unrest after elections, says Vuč

Emil Lazarian
World21:42, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: Հայերեն

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned on 27 September, has said Serbia will not face a “French scenario” of mass unrest after the elections.

“You will not see a French scenario in Serbia,” Vučić told Informer TV, according to TASS.

Serbia will hold snap parliamentary elections on 25 October. Vučić will lead the ruling Serbian Progressive Party’s (SNS) electoral list and be its candidate for prime minister.

The SNS’s main rival will be the “Student List”, led by Novi Sad cardiologist Ilija Srđanović.

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Israel unveils new IDF space force

Karapet Navasardian
World12:31, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: ՀայերենРусский

The IDF is preparing to establish a new Space Brigade under its Planning Directorate, marking a significant step toward expanding Israel’s military capabilities beyond Earth’s atmosphere, Ynet reported.

The unit, expected to be established in the coming months, will oversee the development and operational use of space-based technologies, including orbital surveillance systems and capabilities for future space warfare.

The decision was announced following a senior military appointments meeting Monday chaired by IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir. The new Space Brigade will operate as part of the military’s multiyear Hoshen program, reflecting a growing recognition within the IDF that space has become an increasingly important dimension of modern warfare.

The Space Brigade will be responsible for coordinating the development and operational use of military space capabilities, leading professional training and establishing space operations as a distinct field of military expertise. Unlike traditional combat brigades, it will function as a specialized organizational unit within the Planning Directorate, bringing together technological development, operational requirements and long-term military planning.

According to the IDF, the decision reflects its assessment that space is becoming an active and evolving part of the battlefield, with its military significance expected to increase in the coming years. Over the past year, the military has advanced several projects in the field, including the operation of space-based sensors monitoring Earth and the development of capabilities related to space warfare. The new brigade is intended to consolidate these activities under a dedicated organizational framework.

Defense Minister Israel Katz welcomed the announcement Tuesday, describing the brigade as a key element of his ambition to transform Israel into one of the world’s leading military space powers.

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US secretary of war reportedly meets Netanyahu during unannounced visit to Isr

Boris Nahapetian
U. S.10:50, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: ՀայերենРусский

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during an unannounced visit to ‌Israel on Monday, Reuters reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The source did not say what the two men discussed during the meeting, first reported by Axios.

The Pentagon declined to comment. The Israeli prime minister’s ⁠office did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Hegseth said in a social media post that he had visited US service members in the Central Command area of responsibility, which covers the Middle East, northeast Africa and parts of Asia.

Israel’s Army Radio reported his meeting with Netanyahu took place at an air force base in Israel’s southern desert.

Hegseth’s visit comes amid rising tensions in the Middle East war ‌as ⁠tensions flare between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and as Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthis intensify their attacks on Saudi Arabia.

It also came a day after US President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu in next week’s parliamentary election in ⁠Israel, the country’s first ballot since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on southern Israel.

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New leopard recorded in Armenian conservation area

Babken Chilingarian
Armenia09:46, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: فارسیՀայերեն

Camera traps installed in the Gndasar Community Conserved Area in Zangakatun village, Armenia, recorded a new leopard on October 9 and 13, WWF-Armenia reported.

This is the second leopard recorded in the area since 2025, the organization said.

The number of bezoar goats in the area has also doubled, according to WWF-Armenia.

“These results are important indicators of the effectiveness of community-based conservation, highlighting the role of local communities and people involved in nature conservation in protecting biodiversity. The leopard has been named Aghasy, after the caretaker of the Gndasar Community Conserved Area, whose camera traps captured the animal. Aghasy has been involved in conservation efforts in the area since its establishment in 2018. His long-standing work is an important example of sustained local efforts to protect nature,” WWF-Armenia said in a press release.

The organization stressed that the publication of this news during COP17 provides another opportunity to emphasize that international biodiversity conservation goals are also being achieved at the local level through the direct involvement of communities and sustained, long-term efforts.

“Positive changes recorded in community conserved areas concern not only leopards and bezoar goats. Since the establishment of this community conserved area, the number of brown bears has also doubled, providing another important indicator for assessing the results of ongoing conservation efforts. The Gndasar Community Conserved Area was established within the framework of the Eco-Corridor Fund for the Caucasus (ECF) program. The program is implemented by WWF-Armenia in cooperation with the Ministry of the Environment of the Republic of Armenia. It is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) through KfW Development Bank. The establishment and development of community conserved areas make it possible to combine the protection of natural ecosystems and wildlife with the active participation of local communities. The results recorded in Gndasar once again underscore the importance of this approach to biodiversity conservation in Armenia,” WWF-Armenia said.

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Armenia’s ambassador attends BAPS temple ceremony in Washington

Liana Toganian
U. S.09:52, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: العربيةفارسیՀայերենРусский

Armenia’s Ambassador to the United States Narek Mkrtchyan attended as an honored guest the traditional Bhumi Pujan ceremony marking the groundbreaking and consecration of the new BAPS Hindu mandir and spiritual complex in the Washington area, the embassy said.

The ceremony was attended by U.S. Congressman Glenn Ivey, leaders of the Indian-American community, politicians, and religious figures.

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Armenian defense minister departs for official visit to Czech Republic

Emil Lazarian
Military10:05, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: العربيةEspañolفارسیՀայերենქართულიРусскийTürkçe中文

Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan has departed for an official visit to the Czech Republic, Defense Ministry spokesperson Aram Torosyan said.

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Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan visits Aero Vodochody in Czechia

Emil Lazarian
Armenia20:29, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: العربيةՀայերենРусский

Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan visited defence company Aero Vodochody during his official visit to Czechia.

The Armenian Defence Ministry’s spokesperson said Papikyan met the company’s management and discussed cooperation.

Papikyan also toured the facility, where samples of the company’s products were presented to him.

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Cross-stone dedicated to Armenian Genocide victims installed in Saint-Chamond,

Manouk Vasilian
Diaspora10:34, 20 October 2026
Read the article in: العربيةEspañolفارسیFrançaisՀայերենРусскийTürkçe

At the initiative of Kajaran Mayor Manvel Paramazyan, an Armenian khachkar (cross-stone) dedicated to the memory of the victims of the Armenian Genocide has been installed in the courtyard of the Armenian Catholic Church of St. Gregory of Narek in Saint-Chamond, France.

The Kajaran City Hall said in a statement that this significant event is another important step toward strengthening the friendly relations between the sister cities of Kajaran and Saint-Chamond, preserving Armenian cultural and spiritual heritage, and presenting it to the international community.

Kajaran Mayor Manvel Paramazyan, Saint-Chamond Mayor Axel Dugua, representatives of the municipal authorities, clergy, members of the local Armenian community, and guests attended the solemn ceremony.

Following a special church service, the khachkar was consecrated by Bishop Elie Yéghia Yéghiayan, head of the Armenian Catholic Eparchy of Sainte-Croix-de-Paris in France, with the blessing of Father Raphael Shefikyan. A Holy Mass was held during the day in memory of the holy martyrs of the Armenian Genocide.

During the ceremony, Manvel Paramazyan and Saint-Chamond Mayor Axel Dugua delivered speeches, emphasizing the importance of the warm relations established between the two communities, mutual cooperation, and the preservation of historical memory.

The event also held special significance for the Kajaran mayor. In recognition of his initiative and contribution to preserving Armenian spiritual and cultural values, Manvel Paramazyan was awarded the medal named after Saint Ignatius Maloyan by Bishop Elie Yéghia Yéghiayan, and the St. Gregory of Narek medal of the Armenian Catholic Church of Saint-Chamond by Father Raphael Shefikyan.

“The installation of the Armenian khachkar is a meaningful event not only for the Armenian community in France but also for all Armenians. It is a unique _expression_ of the Armenian people’s historical memory, Christian faith, national identity, and the unbreakable bond between generations. From now on, the Armenian khachkar in Saint-Chamond will stand as an enduring symbol of the perpetuation of the memory of the victims of the Armenian Genocide, the resilience of the Armenian people, and the centuries-old friendship between Armenia and France,” Manvel Paramazyan said.

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