Category: 2023

I have not written about the blockade for a while. There was not much more I really had to say and did not want to rehash the same fears and indignations again. The news of late has been more worrisome. Earlier this month, Aliyev referred to Yerevan as part of “Western Azerbaijan.” It prompted a strong response from Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, but oddly, no protests from any other governments.

This kind of talk from Aliyev would have been moderately bothersome, bordering on the comical, about 10 years ago. Now, after the disastrous war of 2020, it is downright scary with the 100-plus-day blockade of the Lachin Corridor, Azeri troops killing Armenians in Artsakh, firing into Armenia proper, and a lot of buzz about troop movements as Iran has conjectured that Azerbaijan might invade and take the “Zangezur Corridor” soon. There is speculation they might move on Artsakh as well.

If Azerbaijan does either of these, there is little chance the Armenians can stop them. There is even less chance that anyone else is going to come to Armenia’s aid. Sure, there will be protests from France and maybe the US, but there will be no threat of force behind the words.  Russia is preoccupied with their war in Ukraine and has done nothing to break the Lachin Corridor blockade. Iran? If the Azeris take Zangezur, the Armenian-Iran border will disappear.  Iran will probably protest, but I expect not much more.

On February 8, the Armenian Caucus of the US House of Representatives introduced H.Res.108 – Condemning Azerbaijan’s blockade of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) and ongoing human rights violations. The resolution has been referred to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Six weeks later, it is clear this is not a high priority for our US lawmakers. On March 20, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had a phone call with Pashinyan where he offered US support in facilitating bilateral peace discussions with Azerbaijan. No serious words or warnings were given to Azerbaijan.

On January 19, the European Parliament passed a resolution calling for the opening of the Lachin Corridor for humanitarian reasons. The Armenian side embraced this and urged the EU to sanction Azerbaijan, which they have not done. The Azeri Parliament passed a resolution condemning the EU resolution. Azerbaijan has increased their gas exports to Europe to offset the cuts in Russian gas, even though the Azeri gas covers only 2.8-percent of Europe’s gas needs.

It seems these kinds of resolutions and diplomatic words and offers are the limit of what the US and Europe are willing to do to stop Azeri moves in Artsakh and Zangezur. I wonder what, if any, actions they might take if Azerbaijan tries to annex Armenia itself?

This all makes me think of five N-words: Nakhichevan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Nzhdeh, “Never Again” and Nemesis.

Nakhichevan and Nagorno-Karabakh were to be part of the Armenian Republic and Armenian SSR. But the Soviets reneged and gave them to Azerbaijan SSR. The Azeris ethnically cleansed Nakhichevan and have since erased evidence of any Armenian presence there. They are doing the same in the territories they took in the 2020 war. There is no reason to think they would do any differently with any lands they may take in the future.

Obviously the third word refers to Garegin Nzhdeh, the Armenian patriot and military leader. Nzhdeh was born in Nakhichevan. He was a hero of the battle of Karakillise, in keeping Zangezur part of Armenia and in quelling the massacres in Shushi by the Azeris. In the first Republic of Armenia, he was appointed as governor of Nakhichevan. His life was dedicated to Armenian independence and self-determination. He understood and embraced the absolute need for a strong military to defend Armenia and Armenians.

Nzhdeh understood and embodied the phrase we all use: “Never Again.” We have been saying this since 1965, the 50th anniversary of the Genocide, which marked the birth of modern Armenian political activism. We say “Never Again” with passion, yet, here we are again with seemingly little ability to defend ourselves if Azerbaijan and Turkey decide to take the last of our homeland. We had 30 years to prepare for this. Instead, we had a massive brain drain and population exodus along with corrupt oligarchs and leaders lining their own pockets. We did not even recognize Artsakh, as Putin pointed out.

We could have certainly used a few Nzhdehs in the early days of the current Republic. We could use a few today.

Lastly, there is the word “nemesis.” It is the most interesting word of the lot with two overlapping meanings. Merriam-Webster defines it as “a formidable and usually victorious rival or opponent.” For Armenians, Turkey is most definitely a nemesis and so is Azerbaijan. The second definition is “one that inflicts retribution or vengeance.” It seems like the victims of the first kind of nemesis might well be motivated to become nemeses, of the second type, themselves. I hope this never becomes our only remaining course of action.

In recent months, Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations entered a digital phase. Armenia has been working on the text of the peace agreement, adding suggestions and sending them to Azerbaijan. Baku reviews them, mostly rejects Armenian suggestions, adds its ideas and sends the document back to Armenia. Yerevan again inserts its suggestions into the text, rejects some Azerbaijani ideas, and the document flies back to Azerbaijan. It is challenging to assess how the documents are being transmitted between sides, through some secure digital channels or mediators in hard copy versions. Regardless of the technical details, the process is a reminder of the publication process of an academic article when reviewers look through the text and suggest amendments and modifications before accepting the paper for publication. In this case, the reviewers and authors are the same persons, which adds some peculiarities.

The Pashinyan-Aliyev summit at the Munich Security Conference, facilitated by the US Secretary of State, February 18, 2023 (Photo: Prime Minister of the RoA)

The Pashinyan-Aliyev summit at the Munich Security Conference, facilitated by the US Secretary of State, seemed to break this circle and paved the way for the resumption of face-to-face meetings. Immediately after the Munich summit, the US State Department’s representative announced the upcoming meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Brussels. The Brussels format was perceived as an effective platform for reaching agreements. However, the process was stopped after the August 31 meeting, followed by Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia in September 2022. During his recent press conference, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan criticized the Brussels format, arguing that more than 10 agreements reached during negotiations were never realized. According to Pashinyan, there is no sense in continuing negotiations in Brussels and reaching new agreements before the realization of already-approved ideas. 

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan resumes its assertive actions and rhetoric. Overtly ignoring the International Court of Justice’s decision to end the Lachin Corridor blockade, Azerbaijan launched a subversive action in Nagorno Karabakh on March 5, 2023, killing three Armenian police officers. President Aliyev made a belligerent statement during the Nowruz celebration in Azerbaijan on March 18. He argued that if Armenians would like to live peacefully on 29,000 square kilometers, their government should accept Azerbaijani conditions of the peace agreement. That is, to recognize Nagorno Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan without any international presence or international guarantees for the protection of the rights of the Armenians and launch a delimitation and demarcation process based on Azerbaijani conditions. Otherwise, according to Aliyev, there would be no peace treaty. Putting aside President Aliyev’s attempt to reduce the territory of Armenia by 800 square kilometers, from 29,800 to 29,000, the statement was almost an ultimatum; either Armenia signs capitulation, which Azerbaijan calls a peace treaty, or Azerbaijan launches new attacks against Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh or in both directions. In recent days, Azerbaijan has been actively preparing the ground for a new escalation, accusing Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh of violating the ceasefire and transporting weapons and soldiers from Armenia to Nagorno Karabakh. Simultaneously, Azerbaijan has concentrated significant troops along several parts of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. By rejecting any options for an international presence in Nagorno Karabakh and international guarantees for protecting the rights and security of Armenians, Azerbaijan is sending a clear signal that it will not tolerate Armenian presence in Nagorno Karabakh, at least in current numbers. Theoretically, Azerbaijan may agree to have several thousand Armenians there, using them as a showcase for international media to prove its so-called “tolerance,” but this will be a classic example of “soft ethnic cleansing,” similar to what happened in Nakhichevan during 1921-1988, when the Armenian population declined and eventually reached zero.

Simultaneously, Azerbaijan is assertively pushing forward the concept of “Western Azerbaijan,” arguing that the territory of Armenia was part of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijanis should “return to their homeland.” Currently, Azerbaijan uses this concept as a stick to force Armenia to drop its demands for international presence in Nagorno Karabakh. Baku argues that it will agree to an international presence in Nagorno Karabakh only if Azerbaijanis return to Armenia, and Yerevan agrees to establish an international presence and mechanisms to guarantee their rights. However, as the concept of “Western Azerbaijan” gains more acceptance in Azerbaijan through the direct support of the state, there are no guarantees that even if Armenia drops its demands on Nagorno Karabakh and accepts the notion of Nagorno Karabakh without Armenians, Azerbaijan will stop pushing the concept of “Western Azerbaijan.”  

Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations have reached a dangerous point. Since December 2021, Armenia has made significant concessions, first agreeing to discuss the autonomy of Nagorno Karabakh within Azerbaijan and later dropping any mention of status, calling only for an international presence to secure the rights of Armenians. However, Azerbaijan has not made any reciprocal steps, continuing to push forward its narratives. Azerbaijan claims that the conflict is over; Nagorno Karabakh was destroyed during the 2020 war, and Azerbaijan will never accept any international presence or international guarantees to protect the rights of Armenians. According to Azerbaijan, if Armenia does not accept Azerbaijani demands, Azerbaijan will not recognize Armenia’s territorial integrity, pushing forward the concept of “Western Azerbaijan.” 

On March 22, an Armenian soldier was killed in Yeraskh, a village in the Ararat region located only 60 kilometers from Yerevan. Many signs indicate that Azerbaijan may launch a new attack against Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh soon. While protecting its territory is the first and foremost responsibility of Armenia, international actors involved in the region should not simply sit and wait, as any new escalation will make the prospects of regional peace and stability less likely.

TmbaTa Orchestra

TmbaTa Orchestra has embarked on a nationwide tour through the United States with full sponsorship from TUMO Center for Creative Technologies. TmbaTa, which is based out of Armenia, had a memorable kickoff at SXSW and WOMEX in Austin, Texas along with a special concert hosted by AGBU in Pasadena. The tour continues at Constellation in Chicago, Berklee College of Music in Boston, St. Vartan Armenian Cathedral in New York City and Soorp Khatch Arabian Hall in Washington, DC. 

Armenian folk music fans can expect an unforgettable concert experience, featuring modern renditions of Komitas and traditional Armenian folk songs, as represented in their two album releases, Fantastic Komitas and ZarZ’ng’. The band, led by The Bambir’s own Arik Grigoryan, was formed at TUMO Center for Creative Technology through workshops with Armenia’s finest musicians. They promise to deliver an unforgettable show at each stop on the tour.

“We want to share music from the homeland so that Armenia’s Diaspora can embrace the culture as their own,” said Grigoryan. “Our live shows help us to engage with the audience and express our love of the music. We’re excited to bring music to everyone in the Armenian Diaspora.”

Ticket information for each venue can be found online. Fans are encouraged to purchase them early to avoid missing out on this highly anticipated tour.