The crowds of Armenians fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh are so big you can see them from space

Insider
Sept 29 2023
  • At least 70,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh this week.
  • Azerbaijan gained full control of the contested area after a surprise military attack last week.
  • Now, the line of cars bringing Armenian refugees to Armenia is so long that it's visible from space.

Tens of thousands of refugees have fled the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the last week, leaving a traffic jam between Azerbaijan and Armenia so long that it's visible from space.

At least 70,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the territory, which was under a separatist rule associated with Armenia, while internationally, the area has been recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan, per The New York Times.

In a military attack last week, Azerbaijan seized control of the entire territory, driving out many of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians and the separatist Armenian administration, causing a mass exodus of families so large that the traffic jam was visible from space.

Satellite imagery from Maxar taken on September 26 showed a long line of cars along the Lachin corridor, as Armenians and troops left Stepanakert, and headed into mainland Armenia in fear of ethnic persecution from Azerbaijan.

The mass outpour of refugees has intensified in recent days, with locals taking their bare essentials with them. The number of refugees is expected to rise significantly in the coming days, the Times reported.

By September 20, the separatist Armenian leader of the territory signed a decree dissolving the local government and asking Armenian troops to disarm, handing over the territory in exchange for safe passage for ethnic Armenians returning to Armenia, according to the Associated Press.

In 1994, after a six-year separatist struggle and the end of the Soviet Union, the territory was largely governed by an ethnic Armenian government backed by Armenia.

Internationally it was recognized as Azerbaijan's territory.

But by 2020, and several wars later, Azerbaijan regained large amounts of the land in a six-week war, where Russia helped negotiate a peace deal that largely fell in Azerbaijan's favor.

As part of the deal, Russia installed 2,000 peacekeepers along the Armenian border with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meant to quell future conflicts. 

But Azerbaijan's recent aggression largely went unchallenged.

Last week, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of blowing up an oil depot that killed dozens and restricted peoples' abilities to flee by car, according to the Daily Beast.

But by 2020, and several wars later, Azerbaijan regained large amounts of the land in a six-week war, where Russia helped negotiate a peace deal that largely fell in Azerbaijan's favor.

As part of the deal, Russia installed 2,000 peacekeepers along the Armenian border with Turkey and Azerbaijan, meant to quell future conflicts. 

But Azerbaijan's recent aggression largely went unchallenged.

Last week, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of blowing up an oil depot that killed dozens and restricted peoples' abilities to flee by car, according to the Daily Beast.

Turkish Press: The post-Karabakh geopolitical landscape in the Caucasus

Daily Sabah, Turkey
Sept 29 2023

The 44-day war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020, which concluded with Baku’s victory, triggered a significant shift in the post-Cold War geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus region. Azerbaijan’s successful effort to partially end the Armenian occupation of Karabakh had two major implications.

Firstly, it bolstered Baku’s internal unity and gradually elevated its status as a regional player. Secondly, Türkiye’s substantial support to Azerbaijan’s military operations in Karabakh and the subsequent Shusha declaration solidified the strategic partnership between the two nations, necessitating the attention of all regional stakeholders. This situation prompted Armenia to reevaluate its foreign policy, while Russia had to adapt to a changing landscape. Iran, unable to respond to Baku’s victory as it desired, consistently voiced its discontent with the new situation. Other regional actors, such as Georgia, capitalized on the void created by Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, interpreting Azerbaijan’s military intervention as an opportunity to address their own issues.

Consequently, the Karabakh victory introduced new dynamics to the region.

The recent counterterrorism operation launched by Azerbaijan to enforce the provisions of the trilateral declaration signed between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan after the Karabakh war has completely altered the status quo imposed on Azerbaijan since the Cold War, giving rise to a new regional geopolitical landscape.

One notable aspect of post-Karabakh geopolitics is the evolution of the Türkiye-Azerbaijan partnership into a strategic integration. Both countries describe their relationship as “one nation, two states,” a discourse that fosters a strong sociological foundation between them. This unity is primarily rooted in ethnic and political factors. Politically, both states and societies consider Armenia as their historical “other,” although this opposition is mutual. In other words, for Armenia, Turks are also regarded as their historical “other.” With the liberation of Karabakh, the basis for this mutual antagonism may weaken, potentially paving the way for reconciliation among Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Caucasus region.

The military, political and economic dimensions of Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations that existed before the Karabakh conflict are expected to continue strengthening, becoming significant dynamics in post-Karabakh regional geopolitics. Militarily, the two countries are not only enhancing Azerbaijan’s military capabilities through defense industry agreements but also extending their military cooperation to mutual defense commitments, as evident in the Shusha declaration. This means that both nations pledge to defend each other in the event of conflict. This position was reaffirmed during the recent Karabakh crisis when Türkiye warned against Iran’s support for Armenia and assured Azerbaijan of protection. The Azerbaijani military’s capabilities have also established it as a crucial regional player. Politically and economically, Azerbaijan-Türkiye relations are emerging as a new axis in the post-Karabakh regional geopolitical landscape. Their collaboration in energy projects, including transferring Turkmenistan’s gas to Türkiye through the Caspian Sea and Azerbaijan, may elevate both countries’ prominence in the region, especially if the Zangezor corridor is opened, potentially impacting Central Asia.

However, the divergent positions among the regional and international actors in post-Karabakh geopolitics also bring uncertainties. The quest for a new foreign policy direction in Armenia is one of the uncertain dynamics. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s criticism of Russia, joint military exercises with the U.S., and anti-Russian measures could place Armenia in a delicate position between Russia and the West. Although trust in Moscow has waned in Armenian society due to events like the Ukraine war and the Karabakh conflict, Russia remains a crucial partner.

Therefore, Russia will likely play a decisive role in Armenia’s foreign policy. Nevertheless, given Russia’s entanglement in the Ukraine war and other challenges in the Caucasus, its effectiveness remains questioned. While there is potential for a Turkish-Azerbaijani axis to balance Russia’s regional involvement, neither Türkiye nor Azerbaijan may pursue such an orientation in the near term. The most pressing issue at this juncture is the potential developments in Armenian domestic politics, where a remobilization of nationalist discourse following the Karabakh defeat could prevent Armenia’s adaptation to the new situation and prolong the peace process.

Iran’s actions and stance also introduce uncertainty into post-Karabakh geopolitics. Iran’s support for Armenia is motivated by geopolitical considerations and identity concerns. Tehran views backing Armenia as a means to counterbalance the emerging power center created by the Turkish-Azerbaijani partnership, which it perceives as a threat to its identity. Efforts to establish the Zangezur corridor could undermine Iran’s economic influence in the region and result in economic losses. The corridor’s creation, which would establish a direct land connection between the Turkic world and Türkiye, is seen as another threat to Iran.

Consequently, Iran must redefine its position in post-Karabakh regional geopolitics. Iran may opt to be a spoiler and destabilizer or adopt a stance contributing to regional stability. If Iran chooses to shift its rivalry with Türkiye from the Middle East to the Caucasus and views Azerbaijan as a competitor, it could play a significant role in shaping post-Karabakh regional geopolitics.

Another source of uncertainty is the future of the normalization process between Türkiye, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Normalization talks between Türkiye and Armenia can proceed more easily if the Karabakh conflict is resolved. While the normalization process encompasses issues beyond Karabakh, reopening border crossings could yield economic benefits for the parties, potentially expediting political normalization. However, there is a risk that anti-Türkiye Armenian politics, including international Armenian lobbies, could hinder this process. If Armenia and Azerbaijan can reach a political compromise, normalization could occur more swiftly, strategically contributing to regional stability.

Finally, it is crucial to underscore the role of the United States and Europe, particularly France, in post-Karabakh geopolitics. If these countries perceive the region as a competitive arena with Russia and Türkiye, it could transform the region into a competitive strategic environment. Such a scenario would heighten the potential for conflict, deepen regional uncertainties and exacerbate the crisis resulting from Russia’s involvement in Ukraine.

In conclusion, post-Karabakh geopolitics is reshaping regional dynamics, compelling all regional actors to recalibrate their positions in response to the evolving landscape.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Murat Yeşiltaş is a professor of international politics in the Department of International Relations at Social Sciences University of Ankara. He specialized in the study of international security, terrorism, geopolitics and Turkish foreign policy. Yeşiltaş also serves as the director of foreign policy research at SETA.


In pictures: Ethnic Armenians flee Nagorno-Karabakh

CNN
Sept 28 2023


Tens of thousands of people have fled Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia after Azerbaijan launched an offensive to take back full control of the breakaway region.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan's borders but for decades has operated autonomously with a de facto government of its own.

The short offensive ended in a Russia-brokered ceasefire in which separatist Armenian fighters agreed to surrender and lay down their arms. Azerbaijan says Karabakh Armenians can remain in the region if they accept Azerbaijani citizenship, but many people have preferred to leave their homes.

The landlocked mountainous region is home to 120,000 ethnic Armenians who make up the majority of the population.

Azerbaijan says it will guarantee the rights of those living in the region. But Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and international experts have repeatedly warned of the risk of ethnic cleansing.

The self-declared republic will cease to exist from next year after its president, Samvel Shahramanyan, signed a decree dissolving state institutions.

See all the photos at 



Death toll from fuel depot blast in Karabakh rises to 170, Armenpress reports Reuters

Reuters
Sept 29 2023

MOSCOW, Sept 29 (Reuters) – The death toll from an explosion and fire at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh has risen to 170, Armenpress news agency reported on Friday citing local officials in the breakaway region.

The blast occurred as thousands of ethnic Armenians fled the breakaway enclave after their fighters were defeated by Azerbaijan in a lightning military operation.

The authorities have not given any explanation of the cause of the blast.

The number of victims rose sharply from an earlier announcement by Karabakh authorities reporting 68 dead on Tuesday evening.

Rescue work at the blast site continues.

As of Friday morning, more than 84,700 of the 120,000 ethnic Armenians who call Nagorno-Karabakh home had already crossed into Armenia.

Reporting by Maxim Rodionov; editing by Guy Faulconbridge

The fall of an enclave in Azerbaijan stuns the Armenian diaspora, shattering a dream

Sept 29 2023

BEIRUT (AP) — The swift fall of the Armenian-majority enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani troops and exodus of much of its population has stunned the large Armenian diaspora around the world. Traumatized by genocide a century ago, they now fear the erasure of what they consider a central and beloved part of their historic homeland.

The separatist ethnic Armenian government in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday announced that it was dissolving and that the unrecognized republic will cease to exist by year's end – a seeming death knell for its 30-year de-facto independence.

Azerbaijan, which routed the region's Armenian forces in a lightning offensive last week, has pledged to respect the rights of the territory's Armenian community. But by Thursday morning, 74,400 people – over 60% of Nagorno-Karabakh's population — had fled to Armenia, and the influx continues, according to Armenian officials.

Many in Armenia and the diaspora fear a centuries-long community in the territory they call Artsakh will disappear in what they call a new wave of ethnic cleansing. They accuse European countries, Russia and the United States – and the government of Armenia itself – of failing to protect ethnic Armenians during months of blockade of the territory by Azerbaijan's military and in the lightning blitz earlier this month that defeated separatist forces.

Armenians say the loss is a historic blow. Outside the modern country of Armenia itself, the mountainous land was one of the only surviving parts of a heartland that centuries ago stretched across what is now eastern Turkey, into the Caucasus region and western Iran.

Many in the diaspora had pinned dreams on it gaining independence or being joined to Armenia.

Nagorno-Karabakh was "a page of hope in Armenian history," Narod Seroujian, a Lebanese-Armenian university instructor in Beirut, said Thursday.

"It showed us that there is hope to gain back a land that is rightfully ours … For the diaspora, Nagorno-Karabakh was already part of Armenia."

Hundreds of Lebanese Armenians on Thursday protested outside the Azerbajani Embassy in Beirut. They waved flags of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and burned pictures of the Azerbaijani and Turkish presidents. Riot police lobbed tear gas when they threw firecrackers at the embassy.

Ethnic Armenians have communities around Europe and the Middle East and in the United States. Lebanon is home to one of the largest, with an estimated 120,000 of Armenian origin, 4% of the population.

Most are descendants of those who fled the 1915 campaign by Ottoman Turks in which some 1.5 million Armenians died in massacres, deportations and forced marches. The atrocities, which emptied many ethnic Armenian areas in eastern Turkey, are widely viewed by historians as genocide. Turkey rejects the description of genocide, saying the toll has been inflated and that those killed were victims of civil war and unrest during World War I.

In Bourj Hammoud, the main Armenian district in the capital Beirut, memories are still raw, with anti-Turkey graffiti common on the walls. The red-blue-and-orange Armenian flag flies from many buildings.

"This is the last migration for Armenians," said Harout Bshidikian, 55, sitting in front of an Armenian flag in a Bourj Hamoud cafe. "There is no other place left for us to migrate from."

Azerbaijan says it is reuniting its territory, pointing out that even Armenia's prime minister recognized that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan. Though its population has been predominantly ethnic Armenian Christians, Turkish Muslim Azeris also have communities and cultural ties to the territory as well, particularly the city of Shusha, famed as a cradle of Azeri poetry.

Nagorno-Karabakh came under control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by the Armenian military in separatist fighting that ended in 1994. Azerbaijan took parts of the area in a 2020 war. Now after this month's defeat, separatist authorities surrendered their weapons and are holding talks with Azerbaijan on reintegration of the territory into Azerbaijan.

Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said Nagorno-Karabakh had become "a kind of new cause" for an Armenian diaspora whose forebearers had suffered the genocide.

"It was a kind of new Armenian state, new Armenian land being born, which they projected lots of hopes on. Very unrealistic hopes, I would say," he said, adding that it encouraged Karabakh Armenians to hold out against Azerbaijan despite the lack of international recognition for their separatist government.

Armenians see the territory as a cradle of their culture, with monasteries dating back more than a millennium.

"Artsakh or Nagorno-Karabakh has been a land for Armenians for hundreds of years," said Lebanese legislator Hagop Pakradounian, head of Lebanon's largest Armenian group, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. "The people of Artsakh are being subjected to a new genocide, the first genocide in the 21st Century."

The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh is not just a reminder of the genocide, "it's reliving it," said Diran Guiliguian, an Armenian activist who is based in Madrid but holds Armenian, Lebanese and French citizenship.

He said his grandmother used to tell him stories of how she fled in 1915. The genocide "is actually not a thing of the past. It's not a thing that is a century old. It's actually still the case," he said.

Seroujian, the instructor in Beirut, said her great-grandparents were genocide survivors, and that stories of the atrocities and dispersal were talked about at home, school and in the community as she grew up, as was the cause of Nagorno-Karabakh.

She visited the territory several times, most recently in 2017. "We've grown with these ideas, whether they were romantic or not, of the country. We've grown to love it even when we didn't see it," she said. "I never thought about it as something separate" from Armenia the country.

A diaspora group called Europeans for Artsakh plans a rally in Brussels next week in front of European Union buildings to denounce what they say are ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses by Azerbaijan and to call for EU sanctions on Azerbaijani officials. The rally is timed ahead of a summit of European leaders in Spain on Oct. 5, where the Armenian prime minister and Azerbaijani president are scheduled to hold talks mediated by the French president, German chancellor and European Council president.

In the United States, the Armenian community in the Los Angeles area – one of the world's largest – has staged several protests trying to draw attention to the situation. On Sept. 19, they used a trailer truck to block a major freeway for several hours, causing major traffic jams.

Kim Kardashian, perhaps the most well known Armenian-American today, went on social media to urge President Joe Biden "to Stop Another Armenian Genocide."

Several groups in the diaspora are collecting money for Karabakh Armenians fleeing their home. But Seroujian said many feel helpless.

"There are moments where personally, the family, or among friends we just feel hopeless," she said. "And when we talk to each other we sort of lose our minds.


‘I lost everything’: Displaced Nagorno-Karabakh residents arrive in Armenia

France 24
Sept 29 2023

More than 84,000 people have crossed into Armenia from Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region, Armenia's government said Friday, following the swift fall of the Armenian-majority separatist enclave. For the displaced families arriving in the southern Armenian town of Goris, the trauma of the past few weeks is compounded by the uncertainties of the future.

Watch the video at 

‘Whenever territory has changed hands’ in Karabakh conflict, ‘ethnic cleansing has taken place’

France 24
Sept 29 2023
Ethnic Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh on Thursday agreed to dissolve their government by the end of the year and become a full part of Azerbaijan in the wake of Baku's lightning offensive. The dramatic announcement came moments after it became clear that more than half of the rebel region's population had fled the advancing Azerbaijani forces. It drew the curtain on one of the world's longest and seemingly most irreconcilable "frozen conflicts" — one that successive administrations in Washington and leaders across Europe had failed to resolve in ceaseless rounds of talks. But it also stoked anger in Yerevan. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Azerbaijan of conducting "ethnic cleansing" and called on the international community to act. As Karabakh separatists disband, following surrender to Azerbaijan, FRANCE 24's Mark Owen is joined by Dr. Laurence Broers, Caucasus Programme Director at the international peacebuilding organization Conciliation Resources. He is also a research associate at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and an associate fellow at the Royal Institute for International Affairs at Chatham House.

Watch the video at https://www.france24.com/en/video/20230929-whenever-territory-has-changed-hands-in-karabakh-conflict-ethnic-cleansing-has-taken-place

Armenia seeks EU aid for refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh, Italy says Reuters

Reuters
Sept 30 2023

ROME, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Armenia has asked the European Union for assistance to help it deal with refugees arriving from Nagorno-Karabakh since Azerbaijan took back control of the region last week, the office of Italy's prime minister said on Saturday.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is populated mainly by Armenian Christians who set up the self-styled Republic of Artsakh three decades ago after a bloody ethnic conflict as the Soviet Union collapsed.

More than 100,000 refugees have arrived in Armenia since Azerbaijan launched a military operation to retake control of Nagorno-Karabakh, the head of the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) said late on Friday.

Armenia has asked the EU for temporary shelters and medical supplies, the Italian prime minister's office said in a statement, adding that Rome working to promote stabilisation in the region.

Reporting by Angelo Amante Writing by Gianluca Semeraro Editing by Helen Popper

Much of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population flees as first UN mission in 30 years set to arrive

CNN
Sept 30 2023


At least 100,000 people have now fled the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karbakh – more than four-fifths of the population – since Azerbaijan reclaimed the territory in a lightening offensive, authorities in neighboring Armenia said.

The rapid exodus has prompted the United Nations to send its first mission to the territory in about 30 years.

Stephane Dujarric, the spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, said the UN team on the ground would “identify the humanitarian needs for both people remaining and the people that are on the move.”

Though internationally seen as part of Azerbaijan, the Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karbakh had spent decades under the control of a separatist, de facto government until Azerbaijan’s victory last week. The former breakaway republic will cease to exist as of next year.

Azerbaijan has long been clear about the choice confronting Karabakh Armenians: Stay and accept Azerbaijani citizenship, or leave.

As of Saturday morning, 100,417 people had been “forcibly displaced,” the Armenian prime minister’s spokeswoman, Nazeli Baghdasaryan, told reporters.

Armenian authorities have responded to the outflux of people by asking the International Court of Justice, a judicial arm of the UN, to tell Azerbaijan to withdraw its troops – citing fears of “punitive actions.”

They requested the court order Azerbaijan to “withdraw all military and law-enforcement personnel from all civilian establishments in Nagorno-Karabakh,” while refraining from “taking any actions directly or indirectly” that would have the effect of displacing the remaining ethnic Armenians or preventing those who fled from returning.

Azerbaijan should also allow people to leave the region “without any hindrance” if they wanted to, the Armenian authorities demanded.

Armenia also asked the court to direct Azerbaijan to grant the UN and the Red Cross access to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan should “refrain from taking punitive actions against the current or former political representatives or military personnel of Nagorno-Karabakh,” the Armenian authorities said.

The appeal comes as Azerbaijani state media reported Friday that the security services in the country had detained two former commanders of the self-proclaimed “Republic of Artsakh’s” military.

Loven Mnatsakanyan and Davit Manukyan were intercepted while attempting to cross from Nagorno-Karabakh into Armenia via the Lachin Corridor, the one road connecting the landlocked enclave to Armenia.

Mnatsakanyan, who reportedly served as defense minister from 2015 to 2018, was arrested Friday and taken to the Azebaijani capital of Baku, according to state media. He was accused of illegally entering its territory.

Manukyan, who reportedly served as the former deputy commander of Nagorno-Karbakh’s armed forces, was detained Wednesday, Azerbaijani state media reported.

He was accused of engaging in terrorism, setting up illegal armed groups, illegal possession of a firearm, and illegally entering Azerbaijan, though no evidence was presented to support the claims.

A video published by Azerbaijan’s State Security Service showing Manukyan in Azerbaijani detention could not be independently verified by CNN.

The announcement of the arrests came after the indictment of prominent Nagorno-Karabakh politician and businessman Ruben Vardanyan on multiple charges in Azerbaijan Thursday after being detained while trying to cross into Armenia the day before, according to state media citing the Azerbaijani State Security Service.

A former Minister of State of the self-proclaimed republic, Vardanyan is accused of financing terrorism, participating in the creation and activities of illegal armed groups, and illegally crossing Azerbaijani borders, according to state media. Azerbaijan has not presented evidence to support its claims.

On Thursday, local politician David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, the president of the self-styled “Republic of Artsakh,” wrote on Telegram that he would hand himself over to Azerbaijan.

“My failure to appear, or worse, my escape, will cause serious harm to our long-suffering nation, to many people, and I, as an honest person, hard worker, patriot and Christian, cannot allow this,” Babayan wrote.

National Geographic: How the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has been shaped by past empires

Sept 25 2023

A fateful decision by Stalin, and divisions drawn by the Soviet Union, still reverberate in a historic conflict that has recently re-erupted on the battlefields of the Caucasus.

When Azerbaijan launched a military offensive earlier this month to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region of the South Caucasus, it reignited the flames of a centuries-old dispute. The Azeri victory, which prompted thousands of ethnic Armenian residents to flee the region, is likely the last in a series of tumultuous battles over who can claim the disputed enclave, a question shaped in modern times by the rise and fall of the Soviet Union.

Officially, the 1,700-square-mile territory is part of Azerbaijan and is known by its Russian name, which translates to “mountainous Karabakh.” But to Armenians and the region's Armenian-majority population, it’s been known as the Republic of Artsakh or the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, a de facto independent state that was outside of Azeri rule since 1988.

Contested lands

After the dissolution of the Soviet

Union, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces

fought for control of

Nagorno-Karabakh,

which is mostly

inhabited by ethnic

Armenians but

internationally

recognized as part of

Azerbaijan. Armenian forces seized

control of the area, as well as seven

surrounding provinces, and held it from

1988 until the war that began on

September 27, 2020.

Russian peacekeeping area formerly

under Armenian control

AZERBAIJAN

1994 cease-fire line

Former

Soviet

oblast

boundary

In November 2020 Armenia’s Prime

Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to a

Russian-mediated cease-fire.

Azerbaijan would keep the territory it

gained in the conflict, and Armenia

would hand over the districts, like

Agdam, that Armenian forces had

captured in the 1990s.

Contested lands

After the dissolution of the Soviet

Union, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces

fought for control of

Nagorno-Karabakh,

which is mostly

inhabited by ethnic

Armenians but

internationally

recognized as part of

Azerbaijan. Armenian forces seized

control of the area, as well as seven

surrounding provinces, and held it from

1988 until the war that began on

September 27, 2020.

RUSSIA

CASPIAN

SEA

GEORGIA

ASIA

EUR.

MAP

AREA

NAGORNO-

KARABAKH

AZERBAIJAN

AFRICA

ARMENIA

Baku

Yerevan

NAGORNO-

KARABAKH

TÜRKİYE

(TURKEY)

AZERB.

IRAN

Russian peacekeeping area formerly

under Armenian control

AZERBAIJAN

1994 cease-fire line

Former

Soviet

oblast

boundary

In November 2020 Armenia’s Prime

Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to a

Russian-mediated cease-fire.

Azerbaijan would keep the territory it

gained in the conflict, and Armenia

would hand over the districts, like

Agdam, that Armenian forces had

captured in the 1990s.

ARMENIA

NAXÇIVAN

AZERB.

IRAN

Rosemary Wardley, NG Staff.

Source: Russian Ministry of Defense

Read how Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents grappled with conflict and COVID-19.

For centuries, Muslim Azerbaijanis and Christian Armenians, both of whom call the region home, clashed over who should control it. Russian rule began in 1823, and when the Russian Empire dissolved in 1918, tensions between newly independent Armenia and Azerbaijan reignited. Three years later, Communist-controlled Russia set its sights on the independent states of the Caucasus region and began incorporating them into what would become the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

‘I don’t even know if my home still exists.’ Learn how the first Nagorno-Karabakh war displaced more than a million people in the southern Caucasus.

At first, it was decided that Karabakh would be part of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (S.S.R.). Though historians differ on the reasons, the initial incorporation of Karabakh into the Armenian republic is thought to have been a plan to ensure Armenian support of Soviet rule. But the Soviets’ new Commissar of Nationalities, Joseph Stalin, then reversed the decision. In 1923 Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous administrative region within the Azerbaijan S.S.R., even though 94 percent of its population at the time was ethnic Armenian. Ethnic Armenians complained that Azerbaijan restricted their autonomy and claimed Azerbaijan discriminated against them, but the Soviet Union was intolerant of ethnic nationalism and ignored a variety of protests against the status quo.

As the Soviet Union disintegrated in the late 1980s, the long-dissatisfied ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh petitioned to become part of the Republic of Armenia. Azerbaijan responded by trying to crush the separatists in 1988, and clashes intensified in the region. In 1991, both Azerbaijan and Armenia declared independence from the U.S.S.R., and the regional conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh flared into full-out war.

As a result, more than a million people became refugees, and around 30,000, including civilians, were killed. Both sides engaged in ethnic cleansing during the Nagorno-Karabakh War—the Azerbaijanis against ethnic Armenians, and Armenian forces against ethnic Azeris. Despite the brutal humanitarian toll, negotiations between the sides repeatedly broke down.

In 1994, the newly independent nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the Bishkek Protocol, a ceasefire brokered by Russia that left Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. But though the fighting ceased, the two sides could not agree on a peace treaty.

For the last two and a half decades, Armenian and Azerbaijani troops were divided by a contested “line of contact” laid out in the Bishkek Protocol. It became increasingly militarized over the years, and has been called one of the world’s three most militarized borders.

That’s of even greater importance because of the conflicted nations’ powerful allies. Azerbaijan is supported by NATO member Turkey, while Russia has supported Armenia, making the area a potential conflagration zone. While Nagorno-Karabakh is small, the geopolitical stakes are high due to its proximity to strategic oil and gas pipelines, and its location between the powerful regional forces of Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

The separatist government has announced it will dissolve by year's end, and Azerbaijan has promised to guarantee Armenian rights in the region. But most of the region’s 120,000 ethnic Armenians won’t wait to find out if the Azeris will follow through on that pledge. "Ninety-nine point nine percent prefer to leave our historic lands," David Babayan, an adviser to Samvel Shahramanyan, president of the self-styled Republic of Artsakh, recently told Reuters. As the mass exodus continues, the story of Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be coming to a close—still echoing with the fears and humanitarian toll that have plagued it for centuries. 

Editor's Note: This article originally published on October 15, 2020. It has been updated to reflect the latest situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.