Asia Times [Speculation is swirling Russia could stop fuel exports to Europe over Ukraine tensions but the reality is Moscow needs the money] By Michael Bradshaw One of the key issues raised by the crisis on the Ukraine borders is the future of Europe’s gas supply. As talks have foundered over the past month, Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom warned of the low levels of gas in European storage facilities. The US and Europe, meanwhile, have threatened that unless Russia backs down and moves its troops away from the Ukraine border, sanctions could include scrapping Nord Stream II. This is a 750-mile pipeline connecting Russia and Germany with the potential to supply 26 million homes, alongside supporting the wider north-west European gas market. The pipeline has been completed but has not yet been certified by Germany’s energy regulator. The data on the level of dependence on Russian gas is confusing due to the impact of the pandemic in 2020 that depressed demand. But, according to colleagues at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), in 2021 Russia supplied about 35% of the gas imported to Europe (defined as the UK and the 27 states that comprise the EU), about 31% as pipeline gas and 4% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). In the back of everyone’s minds is what happens if Russia turns off the gas taps in winter. I’ve been thinking and reading a lot about this and talking to gas experts and I think that – despite the obvious concern – the consensus seems to be that it is highly unlikely that either side will want to disrupt the flow of natural gas into Europe. Russia’s – and before it the Soviet Union’s – supply of natural gas to Europe has created an enduring interdependence that has survived many geopolitical upsets, such as the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the declaration of martial law in Poland in 1980s, the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and most recently Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Time and again both sides have recognized that they have too much to lose from disrupting the flow of gas. At the moment, Russia is fulfilling its long-term contractual obligations to supply gas. It’s not doing any more than that – which raises the question of whether there has been a deliberate strategy of ensuring that storage remains low and the price remains high, which is good business for Gazprom. But breaking those contracts would result in financial legal and reputational damage for Russia. t’s important to remember that Russia also needs the money. About 75% of Gazprom’s income comes from these exports – and it needs that income to be able to supply gas at a lower price to its domestic consumers. According to the OIES, gas exports account for about 6% of the Russian government’s tax revenue – far less than oil, but not an inconsequential amount. It’s highly unlikely they would want to do it. As far as Europe is concerned, it is unlikely sanctions would target the flow of natural gas. This could exacerbate an already difficult situation which has sent prices spiraling because of the jittery markets. Disruption to the current levels of Russian gas supply could result in power cuts in parts of Europe highly dependent on Russian gas supplies. So, this would be an own goal for Europe. Sanctions can often be a double-edged sword that harm the countries that impose them as much as the intended target of the sanctions. What happens if the gas is turned off? As in any energy infrastructure, you need to maintain a certain amount of gas to keep the system working. That’s true of storage facilities, pipelines, and the like. Some industrial consumers can switch to other sources, such as fuel oil, but many may have to reduce their operations, particularly where natural gas is an input into industrial processes. Compared to previous supply disruptions between Russia and Ukraine, the biggest difference this time is the context within which it’s happening: a very tight global gas market. In short, it is difficult to see where additional supplies to Europe would come from if needed. If you think back before Christmas, when we were discussing the global gas crisis, it was a situation not of Russia’s making entirely – but certainly Russia was taking advantage of it. It wasn’t delivering additional supplies on the short-term spot market and it hadn’t filled up the storage facilities that it owns in Europe. Whatever happens in the next couple of months, things will remain difficult. Because of its role in domestic heating, gas demand is strongly influenced by the weather. A prolonged cold snap in the coming weeks will draw down on storage even further. At the same time, gas backs up wind and solar in the power system and prolonged periods of low wind and sunshine promote greater gas use. Things will ease by spring – but by then storage will be very low and it will be difficult and costly to fill it for next winter. If calmer heads prevail and a solution is found to the current tensions over Ukraine and the Nordstream 2 pipeline is approved over the summer, then pipeline gas supplies from Russia may increase into next winter. If not – and there are continued low levels of supply from Russia – then next winter could be just as difficult, if not more so. In the longer term, the problem for Europe is that domestic gas production will continue to decline. So, unless demand is reduced, the level of gas imports will continue to rise. The lesson learned from the latest crisis should be that Europe needs to accelerate decarbonization of its energy system and reduce the amount of natural gas consumed. But that is easier said than done. * Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick
Category: 2022
Paylan observes renovation of Armenian church in Turkey
Feb 12 2022
– 16:17 AMT
PanARMENIAN.Net – Turkish lawmaker of Armenian descent Garo Paylan has visited St. Giragos Armenian Church in Diyarbakir, according to a Facebook post he published on Saturday, February 12.
“I visited St. Giragos Church in Diyarbakir to observe the work on site,” he wrote.
The ancient Armenian church in southeastern Turkey being restored. The Church, built in the 16th century in the Alipasa neighborhood of Sur district, Diyarbakir province, has an area of 3,769 square meters.
Owned by the Diyarbakır Surp Giragos Armenian Church Foundation, the church, whose upper structure was completely destroyed, is also known as the Paddy Church as it was used as a paddy factory for a long time.
An inscription, now in the Diyarbakir Archeology Museum, says the Christian place of worship was last repaired in 1840.
Armenpress: Security Council Secretary, CSTO Sec-Gen discuss situation at Armenian-Azerbaijani border
Security Council Secretary, CSTO Sec-Gen discuss situation at Armenian-Azerbaijani border
09:41,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia Armen Grigoryan held a phone conversation with CSTO Secretary-General Stanislav Zas to discuss the current situation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, Grigoryan’s office said in a readout.
Grigoryan emphasized that a border exists between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan back from the Soviet years. He stressed that according to the 1991 agreement on Creating the Commonwealth of Independent States, the parties recognized that border, ratified the agreement in their parliaments and made it an integral part of the two countries’ legislation.
Grigoryan and Zas also discussed issues relating to the Armenian chairmanship at the CSTO.
Gymnast legend Albert Azaryan celebrates 93rd birthday
10:00,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. Soviet Armenian artistic gymnast Albert Azaryan is celebrating the 93rd birthday.
The three-time Olympic champion today as well continues actively taking part in the activities of his own gymnast school.
Azaryan won gold at the 1956 Melbourne Olympics (team and individual) and the 1960 Rome Olympics, in addition to multiple titles at European and World championships.
Artsakh FM pays first working visit to Brussels after 2020 War
10:14,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. The working visit of Foreign Minister of Artsakh Davit Babayan to Brussels took place on February 7-10 at the joint initiative and efforts of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Armenian Federation for Justice and Democracy.
“During the visit the friendship group with Artsakh was re-formed in the European Parliament. The MEPs were thoroughly introduced on the current situation and challenges in Artsakh following the 2020 war unleashed by Azerbaijan, the aggressive policy of Azerbaijan which is based on deeply rooted Armenophobia”, the EAFJD said in a statement.
The Artsakh FM met with member-senators of the Armenian and Georgian friendship group at the Federal Parliament of Belgium. He also delivered a lecture for several dozen students of one of the leading law universities in Germany, presenting the Artsakh conflict and the current situation.
Babayan’s visit ended by a meeting with the representatives of the Armenian community.
Commenting on the visit, the EAFJD President Gaspar Karapetian said: “Like in the past, now as well we are working with our entire potential to make the voice of our compatriots of Artsakh heard among the European political circles and informed them about Azerbaijan’s aggressive, destructive policy. We attach importance to the visit of the Foreign Minister of Artsakh to Brussels also because this was his first visit to the EU capital after the war”.
Deputy PM chairs meeting of North-South Road Corridor management board
10:35,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. Deputy Prime Minister Hambardzum Matevosyan chaired the meeting of the management board of the North-South Road Corridor investment project on February 10 to discuss the launch of the tender for the construction of the Sisian-Kajaran section.
Speaking about the importance and expected results of the project, Deputy PM Matevosyan noted that the construction of the Sisian-Kajaran section is among the government’s priorities.
“The implementation of this project will enable to increase interest for transit through Armenian territory, to ensure the security of Armenia’s southern regions and to contribute to their economic development and improvement of the population’s standard of living,” he said.
According to the project, it is planned to build a Technical Class II, 60km long new road section (100km/h), including bridges with a total length of 4,7km and tunnels with a total length of 12,5km, the longest of which is the Bargushat tunnel – 8,6km long.
As a result, the road distance between Sisian and Kajaran will be reduced by approximately 58km, and the current average 50km/h speed of travel for vehicles will be increased to around 100km/h, to reduce the driving time by approximately 1,5-2 hours and increase comfort and safety.
The project is included in the EU Economic and Investment Plan Guideline 2 and the Armenian government is effectively cooperating with the EU, the European Investment Bank and EBRD.
Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh hold LFX involving armored personnel carriers
10:43,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. The Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh held military exercises involving the BTR-82A armored personnel carriers.
The Russian peacekeeping force said in a statement on social media that the drills were part of their planned combat readiness training.
The drills included live-fire shooting exercises and high-speed maneuverability.
California establishes sister state relationship with Armenia’s Syunik province
10:50,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. On , the California State Senate passed ACR 105, a resolution backed by the ANCA-WR, that establishes a sister-state relationship between the State of California and the Province of Syunik of Armenia, the ANCA Western region said.
ACR 105 was first introduced by Assembly member Chris Holden and was passed by the CA Assembly on September 2, 2021. The resolution is jointly authored by Assembly member Adrin Nazarian and lists Assembly members Lisa Calderon, Vince Fong, Laura Friedman, Jesse Gabriel, Christina Garcia, Mike Gipson, Kevin Mullin, Luz M. Rivas, and Senators Bob Archuleta, Andreas Borgeas, Maria Elena Durazo, Robert Hertzberg, and Anthony Portantino as principal co-authors. Additionally, 62 CA legislators have been listed as co-authors.
The resolution declares California’s solidarity with Syunik, the southernmost province in Armenia, and will facilitate mutually beneficial educational, economic, and cultural exchanges. Armenia and the United States are strategic partners, bound by historical kinship and shared values of democracy, freedom, and prosperity, and the passage of this resolution reaffirms this fact.
“Today, we are grateful to Assembly member Chris Holden for spearheading the effort in the State Assembly and to Senator Anthony Portantino for seeing it through in the State Senate by establishing a Sister State relationship between California and Syunik province of Armenia. At such a critical time when Syunik’s sovereignty is at great risk under the grave threats posed by Azerbaijan and Turkey, this bold move by the State of California is a declaration of solidarity which in turn will strengthen the resolve of the people of Armenia to stand strong against the ongoing threats they face from belligerent and aggressive Azeri and Turkish actors in the region,” remarked Nora Hovsepian, Chair of the ANCA-WR.
“Strengthening the relationship with Syunik comes at a critical time as regional powers like Azerbaijan and Turkey pose a threat to its existence and livelihood. This resolution reaffirms California’s solidarity with Armenia and our 1-million-strong community of California- Armenians,” said Assembly member Chris Holden. “There is power in our solidarity and there is even more when we acknowledge the wrongs committed and urge for justice. We set precedent for the future with our action or inaction and today, we are creating long-lasting ties to thread forward a better tomorrow”, he continued.
“I am proud that the State Senate Passed ACR 105 this morning to formalize a sister state relationship with the Syunik region of Armenia”, said CA Senator, Anthony Portantino. “It is important that given the aggression on the border from the Turks and Azeris that California speaks out against that unprovoked horrendous violent actions against a peaceful people and shows that we stand in solidarity and our love are with the people of Syunik and the Armenian people both here in California and back in Armenia and Artsakh”, he continued.
Armenian PM sends congratulatory letters to Iran’s Supreme Leader and President
11:05,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan sent congratulatory messages to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei and President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi on the occasion of the 43rd anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, the Armenian PM’s Office said.
The message addressed to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei reads as follows,
“I warmly congratulate you on the 43rd anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.
The smooth development of relations based on mutual trust and warmth with the neighboring and friendly Islamic Republic of Iran is of particular importance for the Republic of Armenia.
We can state with satisfaction that this year we mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries, the course of which has registered a steady path of development.
I am confident that the warm and neighborly Armenian-Iranian relations, firmly based on mutual respect and trust, will reach new horizons for the benefit of the development of our countries and the welfare of the peoples.
Taking this opportunity, I wish you good health and lasting peace to the friendly people of Iran”.
The message addressed to President of Iran Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi reads as follows,
“I cordially congratulate you and the people of Iran on the 43rd anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution.
In the Republic of Armenia, we highly appreciate the normal development of warm and neighborly Armenian-Iranian relations, which are based on centuries-old history and mutual respect.
We should record with satisfaction that this year we mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between our countries, the course of which has been marked by achievements in various fields and the expansion of cooperation prospects.
Highlighting the determination of the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Iran to strengthen peace and stability in the region, I reaffirm the official invitation to you to visit Armenia to discuss the issues on the bilateral agenda.
I am convinced that due to joint efforts we will be committed to the deepening of high-level Armenian-Iranian interstate relations, and the multifaceted agenda of our cooperation will be further expanded for the benefit of our peoples and countries.
Taking the opportunity, I wish you prosperity and good health, and well-being and lasting peace to the friendly people of Iran”.
COVID-19: Armenia reports 2676 new cases, 31 deaths in one day
11:13,
YEREVAN, FEBRUARY 11, ARMENPRESS. 2676 new cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Armenia in the past one day, the ministry of health reported.
The total number of confirmed cases in the country has reached 402,403.
The COVID-19 recoveries rose by 3658 in a day, bringing the total to 365,662.
The death toll has risen to 8145 (31 death cases in past day).
6743 COVID-19 tests were conducted on February 10.
The number of active cases is 27,029.