Forecast: Geopolitical competition does not mean global changes in the South Caucasus

ARMINFO
Armenia – Aug 26 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.Despite the sharp period of geopolitical competition for the South Caucasus, global changes in the region are not expected for Moscow in the long term. Fyodor  Lukyanov,  Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Chairman,  Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in  Global Affairs journal, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"We understand that this period cannot but influence the general  situation in the region, including the situation in Armenia.  Accordingly, we do not exclude shake-ups, which, however, are already  taking place.  The Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel Brussels negotiations to  be held on August 31 are also part of these processes., but, as we  see, these negotiations do not cause much concern in Moscow," he  stressed.  Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani  President Ilham Aliyev and Council of Europe President Charles Michel  will meet on August 31 in Brussels. According to the Office of the  Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, the same issues that were  the subject of discussion in Brussels earlier will be discussed at  the meeting.

On August 20, information was spread in the mass media about the  preparation of another Putin-Pashinyan- Aliyev meeting on August 31  in Moscow. It should be noted that this is the second time that  instead of the meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan  announced in Moscow, it takes place in Brussels. In total, three  Pashinyan-Aliyev meetings took place in the Brussels format.

The analyst connects the reasons for such loyalty of  Russia to the  strengthening of the role of the EU in mediation in the settlement of  Armenian-Azerbaijani problems, to the current priorities of Russia's  foreign policy. Noting the importance for the Russian Federation of  any problems in the post-Soviet space, Lukyanov recalled that since  February 24, Ukraine has become Moscow's priority in this very space  The reason for Moscow's lack of proper response to all processes and  impulses in the South Caucasus, without exception, the analyst  believes is Ukraine. Hence, among other things, Moscow's position  aimed at a long- term solution to the Karabakh conflict. The latter,  at the same time, retains all its geopolitical pillars throughout the  region, in order to intensify its own efforts and policies after the  resolution of the main Ukrainian problem.

"The South Caucasus, the post-Soviet space, like all of us, is going  through another transitional period with all the accompanying  difficulties and problems. And large and small geopolitical upheavals  are an inseparable part of it. The significance of the region for  Russia has not changed and will not change. And I don't see any  special reasons for Moscow's concern about the prospects for ongoing  geopolitical upheavals," Lukyanov summed up. 

Forecast: There are more questions than answers. But they will be resolved with the support of Moscow

ARMINFO
Armenia – Aug 26 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.As of today, there are more questions than answers about the corridors to be opened in the South Caucasus. But I really hope that with the support and participation  of Russia, these issues will be resolved soon or maybe not so soon.  Viktor Nadein-Raevsky, Researcher of the Institute of World Economy  and  International Relations (IMEMO), said in an interview with  ArmInfo. 

"For example, the area around the Lachin corridor, no doubt, needs  protection: mountainous terrain, serpentine – there is not just a  narrow section of the road, there is a section of territory that  someone should protect, especially after the arrival of the  Azerbaijani population there. Otherwise clashes are inevitable.  And  I do not at all think that control over the territory of the Lachin  corridor should be carried out exclusively by Azerbaijan," he  stressed.

In this light, returning to the history of the conflict, the  Turkologist recalled that the territory of Nagorno- Karabakh  inhabited by Armenians was once included by the Bolshevik government  of the RSFSR to Azerbaijan. At the same time, he noted that the  region of Lachin, which at that time also belonged to the Azerbaijan  SSR, was mainly inhabited by Kurds. And this time the Armenian side  is the one who raises questions about the fact that the latter was  forced to leave it in the 1990s.

According to the Russian expert, one way or another, there is no  mention of ownership of Karabakh and Lachin in the tripartite  statement of November 9, 2020. As well as there is no mention of  Baku's control over movements and passage in the Lachin corridor  Thus, according to Nadein-Raevsky, even the agreement of the  conflicting parties to move still leaves open the question of  ensuring its security.

"In general, the activation of transport corridors seems to be a very  real step towards the normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani  relations. But even here the question arises of the need to ensure  their safe functioning. For example, it is not clear who will ensure  the safety of the passage of Armenian passengers passing through  Nakhichevan or Baku. History shows that, unfortunately, Baku is not  able to do this on its own, while the security of the road from  Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan will be provided by Russian border troops,"  the expert summed up.

Newspaper: Russia peacekeepers to not remove all their bases in Berdzor-Lachin

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

YEREVAN. – Hraparak daily of Armenia writes: The authorities of Artsakh [(Nagorno-Karabakh)] and Armenia de-Armenianized Berdzor, Aghavno, Nerkin Sus once and for all yesterday—August 25 was the initial deadline set by [Azerbaijani president] Aliyev. However, the deadline [for the Armenians to leave the aforesaid communities] has been extended until September 1.

That is the reason why the Russian peacekeepers have not yet disassembled their bases from the Lachin corridor, they continue to perform their functions. Berdzor [(Lachin) town] will be under the control of Azerbaijanis in a few days.

According to our Artsakh sources, the temporary section of the alternative road connecting Armenia to Artsakh will be ready in a week at most. However, there are some reports that, nonetheless, the Russian peacekeepers will not disassemble all the bases from Berdzor. Moreover, one of their bases on the new road will be placed in Aghavno village, and their military base will be located in a part of the village.

Artsakh FM: Some steps taken by Kazakhstan raise many questions regarding Karabakh

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

Some of Kazakhstan's actions, particularly towards Nagorno-Karabakh, really raise many questions. Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Foreign Minister David Babayan said this in an interview with Armenian News-NEWS.am, speaking about the agreement signed—within the framework of the Kazakh president's visit to Baku—on making Artsakh’s Shushi city, currently occupied by Azerbaijan, and Turkestan sister cities.

"Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan cooperate very closely; moreover, sometimes this cooperation turns into something bigger and quite dangerous. Some steps taken by Kazakhstan, particularly regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, really raise many questions. A vivid example of this is the agreement on Turkestan and Shushi becoming sister cities. But let's look at the process from another point of view: ideas and principles. There are powerful vectors that try to divert attention from the importance of this component, to show that it is not important, especially at the current stage of the development of international relations, that it is a remnant of the past, to think about ideology and values. In fact, it is not so. The very forces that try to discredit those values are themselves fighting for their own values and against those values that help many peoples to survive. Why Turkestan? What? Are there no other cities in Kazakhstan? Because there is an element of weak power here, pan-Turkism. It's not exactly like that. Shushi is used as a springboard for the implementation of pan-Turkist ideas, practical implementation, in the event that Shushi should be given some sacred meaning in the Turkic world. It is a fact that everything happens like this. And the fact that they involve Kazakhstan in those processes, and Kazakhstan actually wants to be involved. Aren't there other spheres of interaction? Shushi should be made a part of the contract? Because it is important to use values here. A very powerful struggle is being waged against our people in this sphere, in the sphere of values. They are trying to undermine our values and self-awareness, and not only in the format of Azerbaijan's cooperation with other countries, in particular with Kazakhstan, but to go deeper.

According to our information, Turkey and Azerbaijan, along with some fugitive Russian oligarchs, are involved in organizing a painful blow to our values in the Holy Land, in the territory of the Armenian quarter, because the Armenian presence in Jerusalem has a centuries-old history. As if they are building some kind of hotel complexes, but in reality, a purposeful policy is being pursued to capture the most important spiritual center and push the Armenian presence out of there. And all this together once again proves that the most important—if not the only—key basis for the revival of our people is the return to national values, in the basis of which there is no hatred towards anyone, but there is devotion to the people, ideals. There are many forces and poles that work against us. Pan-Turkist elements are necessarily present in their ranks, elements that try to undermine us from within, to break ties with brotherly countries and peoples; this should be well understood. And if we understand it, then we will be able to take appropriate steps," David Babayan said.

RFE/RL: Washington responds to Baku: With Reeker’s appointment US aims to achieve Armenia-Azerbaijan peace

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

A representative of the US Department of State responded to the harsh statement of by Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan regarding the appointment of Philip Reeker as the new US Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, RFE/RL Armenian Service reported.

During the State Department press briefing a few hours ago in Washington D.C., Vedant Patel, Principal Deputy Spokesperson at the Bureau of Global Public Affairs at the US State Department, said that with Reeker’s appointment, the US aims to achieve comprehensive Armenian-Azerbaijani peace.

Azerbaijani Turan news agency asked Patel: “I want to ask you about the U.S. role in the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace process, especially in the wake of yesterday’s announcement came out from the Secretary. It looks like the Azeris are surprised by the appointment of Ambassador Reeker to the post of Minsk Group co-chair as well as senior advisor for Caucasus negotiations. In fact, the Azeri foreign affairs ministry described it as ‘an approach far from the post-conflict [reality]…in the region.’ Can I get your reaction to that?”

And Patel responded: “On your question about Armenia and Azerbaijan and the appointment of Ambassador Reeker, look, the Secretary appointed him to serve as the senior advisor for Caucasus negotiations to underscore our commitment to facilitating peace in the South Caucasus. As a country, we are committed to facilitating direct dialogue between Azerbaijan and Armenia bilaterally, multilaterally, and in cooperation with likeminded partners to achieve a comprehensive peace settlement between the two countries. His selection underscores our commitment to the Geneva International Discussions, where we’re going to continue to hold Russia accountable to the commitments it made under the 2008 ceasefire. Also, as part of his diplomatic advisor role, Ambassador Reeker will also represent the U.S. both at the OSCE Minsk Group and at the Geneva International Discussions as I mentioned.”

Azerbaijanis get Karabakh’s Berdzor-Lachin on Azerbaijan first lady’s birthday

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

Azerbaijan has announced the taking control of Berdzor (Lachin) town and neighboring two villages in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh).

President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev announced on his Twitter page about this significant event for Baku. "The Azerbaijani army has been deployed in the city of Lachin, the villages of Zabukh [(Aghavno)] and [Nerkin] Sus have been taken under control," he wrote.

Meanwhile, the issue of the alternative motorway to link Artsakh to Armenia is not so clear. First, Azerbaijan, violating the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, unilaterally "decided" and "implemented" the new route. The authorities of Armenia and Artsakh categorically deny any assumption about verbal agreements in this regard.

It turned out that Ilham Aliyev can announce Azerbaijan’s control over Berdzor on the birthday of his wife, Mehriban.

As for the aforesaid alternative motorway, Azerbaijan claims to have built its section, and the problem is in the section that Armenia shall build. It is planned that this motorway will be ready by the spring of 2023, but for now a dirt road needs to be used.

Artsakh Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Hayk Khanumyan announced Thursday that "the new route of the Berdzor corridor will be launched in the first week of September this year."

There are only five checkpoints of Russian peacekeepers in this area, and there is no guarantee that Azerbaijan will not resort to provocations again.

Turkey happy that Armenian side handed over Lachin, surrounding settlements to Azerbaijan

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey issued a statement regarding the Armenian side’s handing over of Lachin and neighboring settlements in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) to Azerbaijan.

In this statement, it was noted that Turkey is happy with this fact and will support the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in the future, too.

Asadov: Azerbaijan will create all conditions for partners in EAEU to use transit potential of country

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

Today, Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Ali Asadov participated as a guest in a meeting of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council in the city of Cholpon-Ata of the Kyrgyz Republic.

Prime Minister Ali Asadov said that Azerbaijan has close bilateral relations and economic ties with almost all member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).

It was noted that these relations are based on the principles of mutual respect for territorial integrity, national sovereignty and consideration of each other's interests.

According to the Prime Minister, cooperation based on the principles of equality, mutual respect and consideration of each other's interests is the key to long-term peace, stability and sustainable development.

It was stressed that Azerbaijan pursues a strategic course aimed at ensuring cooperation, peace and building a sustainable security system on a regional and global scale. "In this context, we promote peace and dialogue, and make a valuable contribution to the development of cooperation in the Eurasian region," the prime minister said.

He added that, being at the junction of Europe and Asia, Azerbaijan, together with its partners in the region, is involved in a whole complex of initiatives and projects aimed at developing transport communications, strengthening regional and continental trade.

Drawing attention of the meeting participants to the development indicators of Azerbaijan, Asadov said that despite the negative trends in the global economy, the country has recorded good economic growth rates for six months of 2022. Thus, in the first six months of this year the economic growth was 6.2%. Non-oil economy grew by 9.6 percent. Foreign trade has grown considerably – by more than 70 percent. The export of Azerbaijani goods has more than doubled, while non-oil export has grown by 25 percent.

It was noted that Azerbaijan has invested and continues to invest in the modernization of transport infrastructure for the implementation of projects to create international transport and logistics corridors.

It was stressed that Azerbaijan is an important link in a number of projects, such as international transport corridors North-South and East-West, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway and others.

"We observe annual growth of cargo transportation through the territory of our country on various routes. Only for 6 months of the current year, the volume of transit traffic through various corridors has grown by more than 50 percent. The volumes of transit cargo going through the new international sea trade port of Alyat on the Caspian Sea are increasing. The port's infrastructure can handle up to 15 million tons, including 100,000 TEU containers a year. Nevertheless, the growth of cargo flow and the related forecasts require increasing its throughput capacity. Given this, we have laid the second phase of expansion of transshipment capacity of the port up to 25 million tons of cargo and 500,000 TEU containers," the Prime Minister said.

It was brought to attention that Azerbaijan is ready to continue creating all conditions for the EAEU partners to use the transit potential of the country.

It was expressed confidence that cooperation within the framework of transport projects connecting countries and continents will contribute to a stable, prosperous, dignified and predictable future across the Eurasian space.

"This thesis is reinforced by the new realities that have emerged in the region, which create good opportunities for unblocking transport communications, as well as opening new transport and trade routes," added the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan.

Expert: Refusal of cooperation with EAEU will be tantamount to economic suicide for Armenia

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

Armenia left the GSP+ system last year because it became a middle-income country. This means that it was deprived of exports to the EU, the USA and Japan on favorable terms, said Tatul Manaseryan, Director of Alternative Research Center, Member of Eurasia Expert Club, at the press conference of Eurasia Expert Club in Yerevan, today, when summing up the results of the seventh economic survey.

According to him, this has already affected the indicators of Armenian exports. In particular, it has especially decreased on the European continent.

"In this situation, the EAEU market has become a kind of safety cushion, providing Armenia with ample export opportunities. To all the critics who have a negative attitude toward Armenia's membership in the EEU, I would like to ask a counter question. Let them kindly name an alternative: what market can replace EEU market, whether there is any malice in their propaganda, and whether we are not pushed into an economic abyss when they say "give up Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh markets"," Manaseryan said.

He is convinced that refusal of cooperation with the EEU would be tantamount to economic suicide for Armenia.

The Economist noticed that even at the stage of Western restrictions a number of European countries, including some banks, don't refuse the Russian market and, having broken through the sanctions, continue cooperating with Russia.

Expert: If Armenia expects something from OSCE Minsk Group, it should invite its co-chairs to Yerevan

NEWS.am
Armenia – Aug 26 2022

If Armenia expects anything from OSCE Minsk Group, it should show initiative and invite its co-chairs to Yerevan in this tense situation, journalist Suren Sargsyan said  today.

"The relations between OSCE Minsk Group co-chair states are tense, the latter are trying to accuse each other of failing to continue the Minsk Group activities. But we cannot get an answer to the most important question: what does the Armenian government want from the Minsk Group?" said Sargsyan.

He recalled that Azerbaijan opposes the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group. "Globally, it is not Aliyev who will decide what kind of co-chairmanship the Minsk Group should have. If relations between Russia, France and the U.S. are tense today, it doesn't mean they won't get better tomorrow. What is important here is the fact that yesterday the United States appointed a new co-chair. It means that the U.S. keeps insisting that the Minsk Group is the most appropriate format for the settlement of the conflict and there is no adequate response from Armenia," the expert said.

Sarkisian stressed that in addition to the OSCE Minsk Group, there are other formats in the settlement of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan conflict. "The Brussels format supposes that representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan meet and discuss the settlement of the problem and discuss the implementation of trilateral agreements of November 9 during the meetings in Moscow. The settlement of the problem is dealt with by Brussels, saying Brussels, we should also understand the US, France, as the co-chair countries of the Minsk Group, and on the other side – Russia. They say to Moscow: the document of November 9 was signed under your leadership and you lead this process till the end," the expert said.

On Wednesday, the U.S. announced the appointment of Philip Reeker as a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group and a senior adviser in the negotiations on the Caucasian issues. Baku reacted rather harshly, saying that attempts to "reanimate" the practically non-functioning Minsk Group could lead to the U.S. alienation from the process of normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian relations. "The Karabakh conflict has been resolved, and Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan," said Leyla Abdullayeva, head of the Foreign Ministry's press service department.

In response, a representative of the U.S. Department of State said today that by appointing Ricoeur, the United States of America wants to achieve a comprehensive Armenian-Azerbaijani peace.

After 44 days of war the negotiations between the presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are in fact deadlocked. While Armenia speaks about the necessity of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship, Azerbaijani President Aliyev insists that such an issue no longer exists, thus sending the Minsk Group "into retirement".