Are Azerbaijan and Armenia ready to improve relations?

Al-Jazeera, Qatar
Oct 15 2021

One year has passed since the Nagorno-Karabakh war and there are hints that diplomatic ties could be built.

The Azerbaijan flag in Shusha, Azerbaijan, [Emre Caylak/Al Jazeera]

Baku and Shusha, Azerbaijan – A year after a deadly conflict over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region that killed thousands and led to accusations of war crimes from both sides, arch foes Armenia and Azerbaijan have shown some signs that they are open to improving relations.

Azerbaijan’s deputy foreign minister, Elnur Mammadov, told Al Jazeera from his office in Baku that it is time for a fresh start for the two countries, which currently have no diplomatic relations

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“We believe the conflict should be put behind us and we should now look into confidence and trust building,” said Mammadov, adding that you “cannot live in a state of war forever”.

Relations between the former Soviet republics have been tense since the first Karabakh war in the early 1990s, which left the territory and seven adjacent regions – all of which are recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan – in the hands of ethnic Armenians.

The conflict prompted neighbouring Turkey, which shares close cultural and linguistic ties with Azerbaijan, to sever relations and close its borders with Armenia in 1993.

In September last year, tensions spilled over again, resulting in a 44-day war that killed more than 6,000 mostly soldiers across the two sides. Turkey provided sophisticated weaponry such as drones that were thought to have helped sway the conflict.

However, despite a historically difficult relationship due to the mass killing of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire during World War I, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have signalled that they are ready to move towards restoring diplomatic relations following Azerbaijan’s victory.

Both sides stand to make economic and geopolitical gains as a result.

Mammadov said that for Azerbaijan, although conditions would have to be met along the way, normalisation also fits the overall long-term outlook.

“What’s happening with Turkey and Armenia fits into the big picture of normalisation and that’s exactly what we’re interested in. Nobody wants to live in this hostile environment,” he said.

“We have always said that it’s not a question of not liking Armenians. We did not establish diplomatic or other relations with Armenia before because they had occupied our land. As a result of the war, the territories have been liberated, and now we are ready to talk.”

Among the demands that would need to be met are the opening of a transport corridor with Nakhichevan, an Azerbaijan exclave bordering Armenia and Iran, which was agreed under last November’s ceasefire statement.

The corridor will allow direct access between Turkey and Azerbaijan, without using the far longer land routes through Georgia or Iran.

Recently, the first Azerbiajani passenger plane for seven years flew over Armenian airspace from Baku to the exclave, and the deputy prime ministers of both countries are set to meet later this month to discuss further opening up of the corridor via Russia.

For Azerbaijan, a comprehensive peace agreement would also need to be agreed to replace the tripartite ceasefire statement, co-signed by Russia, that ended the conflict last year.

Negotiations of which, should they go ahead, are expected to be a lengthy process.

Before the war, negotiations were mediated by the OSCE’s Minsk Group, led by France, Russia, and the United States, but Moscow has now taken a dominant role.

Alex Melikishvili, principal research analyst with IHS Country Risk focused on the Caucasus and Central Asia, said that Azerbaijan is keen to move on with the comprehensive peace agreement with Armenia, which will include provisions on the non-use of force.

“President [Ilham] Aliyev has said that the Karabakh conflict is over, as far as Azerbaijan is concerned. On the Armenian side, the situation is far more complicated for a number of reasons,” he said.

“President Aliyev has firmly rejected any type of autonomy for what’s left of the breakaway region, but you still have an Armenian population there, even though they only control one third of the territory they controlled before November 2020.”

Armenia’s ministry of foreign affairs, as well as its representatives, did not respond to Al Jazeera’s requests for comment.

Nikol Pashinyan, Armenian prime minister, attends a rally after snap parliamentary election in Yerevan, Armenia June 21, 2021 [Vahram Baghdasaryan/Photolure via Reuters]

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in August that he was ready for reconciliation with Turkey “without preconditions”, despite last year referring to Ankara in an interview with Al Jazeera as “the main initiator of this war”.

According to Turkey’s pro-government Daily Sabah newspaper, Pashinyan said during a recent meeting with Lithuania’s Armenian community that he had announced he was ready for a “high-level summit” with Baku, as far back as July 1.

But despite the conciliatory tone, accusations of ceasefire breeches and unpunished war crimes are never far away from both sides. Both have filed international criminal cases against each other for, among other things, racial discrimination.

“A year after the war, life has returned to normal in Armenia, but there is an underlying sadness and incomprehension – people wonder ‘What happened in 2020? Why?’” said Vicken Cheterian, who teaches international relations at Webster University in Geneva and has written books about Armenia and its neighbours.

“Armenians are still struggling to understand the cause of the defeat after being victorious in the first Karabakh war.”

For Azerbaijan, and more specifically for its leader President Aliyev, who has been in power since 2003, victory has helped curry favour with a weary public, said analysts.

“It’s hard to overestimate the significance of winning the war for Azerbaijan as a nation. This has become a nation building exercise,” said Melikishvili.

“It has contributed to the revival of the national spirit, which was flagging for a really long time. A year on, I am not aware of any major anti-government rally that has taken place and that should tell you something.”

The construction of Zafar Road, the Ahmadbayli-Fuzuli-Shusha highway, is nearing completions. The length of the two- or three-lane road is 101 kilometres [Emre Caylak/Al Jazeera]

Since the victory, a number of infrastructure projects have been undertaken by Azerbaijan, including a new road to the recaptured town of Shusha, known as Shushi to Armenians, in just eight months.

Two hotels have been renovated and are ready for guests and an airport has been completed in the nearby Fizuli region.

The aim is to reintegrate the newly-regained territories into Azerbaijan proper, also by reconnecting with Azerbaijani electricity supplies, making the gains of the last war irreversible.

Smart towns based around renewable energy are planned, with foreign investment expected to help build infrastructure from sources such as the British oil and gas company, BP.

Development has been hampered, however, because much of the area is unsafe due to the presence of landmines and unexploded weaponry.

It is understood that Pashinyan would be willing to hand over all of his remaining minefield maps if Azerbaijan were to release its remaining Armenian detainees.

The new airport in Fuzuli, Azerbaijan [Emre Caylak/Al Jazeera]

Armenia describes the captured men as prisoners of war and says that, according to its fact-finding, more than 125 people are yet to be returned.

Baku maintains that they have between 40 and 50 Armenians in their care and that they are all being tried legitimately under criminal law, on either war crimes or terrorism charges.

According to Azerbaijani deputy foreign minister Mammadov, three Armenians are being tried for torture carried out during the first war, while the other men were detained for attacking Azerbaijani land after the peace statement was signed.

He said the International Committee of the Red Cross has been allowed to access the prisoners and that they will be released should they be found innocent.

However, Siranush Sahakyan, an Armenia lawyer who represents some of the families of the detained, said the criminal cases brought by Azerbaijan have no legal basis.

“On one hand, Azerbaijan grossly underestimates the number of PoWs. On the other, it has labelled the acknowledged PoWs as criminals to justify its deliberate delay to their repatriation,” she said.

“In reality, Azerbaijan is holding Armenian captives hostage to enforce political demands.”

Meanwhile, residents on both sides are still grappling with huge losses, adjusting to life without their loved ones who died in the war.

The mental and physical trauma of war cuts deep and thousands remain displaced on both sides, with huge numbers of Azerbaijanis from Karabakh who were uprooted by the first war still without a permanent base. Their situations are unlikely to be resolved in the short term.

Vladimir Putin to CIS: Russian peacekeepers – guarantors of peace in Karabakh

Vestnik Kavkaza
Oct 15 2021
 15 Oct in 14:20

Russian peacekeepers stand as guarantors of the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday at a meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).

“The Russian peacekeepers stand as guarantors of the established ceasefire. We are providing assistance by delivering humanitarian cargo and carrying out mine clearance, and, I want to emphasize, [we are helping] both sides. In Azerbaijan, as well as in Armenia, life support systems are being restored, medical assistance is being provided to the population, tens of thousands of refugees, over 52,000 people, have returned to their homes,” Putin noted.

The Russian president pointed out that the CIS countries sometimes face disagreements and contradictions. “And it is bad when these contradictions result in sharp conflicts between CIS member states as it, unfortunately, happened last year in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he stated. Putin also expressed gratitude to his CIS colleagues for appreciating Russia’s contribution to resolving the conflict.

Furthermore, Putin said that Russia upheld the draft statement, prepared on Belarus’ initiative amid the 30th anniversary of the CIS, which took stock of the main results of the organization’s activities and defined some long-term tasks for its further development. “Indeed, over three decades, the CIS has come a long way, establishing itself as an authoritative regional integration association, where the member states strive to build relations on the principles of good-neighborliness, partnership, mutual benefit and consideration of each other’s interests,” the Russian leader stressed.

The president commented on the situation around Karabakh with the saying “a bad peace is better than a good war”.

However, according to the president, the crucial thing is that the member states “have managed to preserve, and in some ways, to enhance the economic, social, cultural and humanitarian ties, which have been accumulated over many years of living in a single state,” Putin concluded.

Pashinyan calls for dialogue in Nagorno-Karabakh region

Belarus – Oct 15 2021
An archive photo

MINSK, 15 October (BelTA) – Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for dialogue and efforts to gradually overcome an atmosphere of hostility in the Nagorno-Karabakh region as he addressed the web-based CIS summit on 15 October, BelTA has learned.

“We are determined and will do our utmost to achieve peace and stability in the region,” the prime minister stressed.

“Today, our region is on the verge of very important transformations. Given there is political will and wisdom, they can change the current picture and lead to the conditions that create genuine peace and stability. We are ready for such changes. Moreover, they coincide with our vision of the future,” Nikol Pashinyan emphasized.

He noted that in its program of action the Armenian government has set a goal to open a new era of peaceful development for the country and the region as a whole. “By winning the snap parliamentary elections, we have received a mandate to achieve this fundamental goal,” he said.

At the same time, the prime minister noted that there are many factors that call into question the possibility of peace in the region. People are still dying. In this regard, he proposed to strengthen the tripartite mechanisms for investigating incidents and observing the ceasefire and all military actions.

“Many do not believe in peace and stability in our region. Moreover, they do not want this. In these circumstances, it is very difficult to advance the agenda. But we are determined and will do everything in our power to achieve peace and stability in our region. We have a clear idea of how to achieve this goal. Dialogue and efforts to gradually overcome an atmosphere of hostility that our region is, unfortunately, facing, resolving all regional transport and economic cooperation problems is the only way that can lead to this goal,” Nikol Pashinyan said.

Pashinyan reaffirms Armenia’s readiness for demarcation of border with Azerbaijan

Oct 15 2021

MINSK, 15 October (BelTA) – Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reaffirms its country’s readiness to begin demarcation and delimitation of the border with Azerbaijan as he addressed the web-based CIS summit on 15 October, BelTA has learned.

“Demarcation and delimitation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is crucial to achieving lasting peace. We are ready to start this process. In this regard, we also hope for the support of Russia and our other international partners. An appropriate atmosphere is very important for overcoming the existing obstacles,” Nikol Pashinyan said.

In that regard, he made a number of specific proposals.

He also noted that the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the key matter, and therefore it is important to continue the negotiation process in this regard. “We consider it important to restore the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship. In their statements over the last month, the co-chairs repeatedly noted the need to resume the peace process to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,” Nikol Pashinyan said.

The Armenian prime minister also praised the meetings between the Armenian and Azerbaijani ministers of foreign affairs in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly and also in Minsk on 14 October with the mediation of the Russian minister of foreign affairs. “The upcoming visit of the co-chairpersons to the region and their visit to Nagorno-Karabakh will be an important event,” he added.

Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that his country is ready to work in all the suggested areas. “We are convinced that the implementation of all these tasks will ensure substantial progress in creating conditions for a lasting and durable peace in our region,” the prime minister stressed.

He said that he did not consider the CIS summit platform to be a convenient place for looking into the shared history of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The countries are now conducting such proceedings as part of their lawsuits in the international court in The Hague.

Responding to Nikol Pashinyan’s words, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who is presiding at the event, said: “Thank you, you are absolutely right. The CIS is not a platform to consider individual issues. We do not have such powers and functions. However, we are grateful that you and Ilham Heydarovich [Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan] have informed the heads of state on the situation in your region. Our friends, both Azerbaijanis and Armenians, live there. We will certainly keep this information in mind while setting the agendas in our countries.

Putin comments on settlement of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Belarus – Oct 15 2021

MINSK, 15 October (BelTA) – Russian President Vladimir Putin touched upon the topic of peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region at the web-based CIS summit which was held under the chairmanship of Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko on 15 October, BelTA has learned.

Earlier at the summit, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed their positions on this topic.

The peace agreements in the region were reached with the direct participation of Russia, and now the Russian peacekeeping contingent is the guarantor of the truce regime. “With our assistance, humanitarian goods are delivered, the territories are being mine cleared, on both sides. The life support system is being restored, medical assistance is being provided to the population. Tens of thousands of refugees have returned to their homes. All this once again confirms Russian wisdom: ‘A bad peace is better than a good war’, ‘Every quarrel leads to reconciliation’ and so on,” the Russian leader said.

“Actually, the key role of the Commonwealth of Independent States is to provide conditions for peaceful cooperation and joint work for the prosperity and development of our countries, improving the well-being of our citizens,” Vladimir Putin said.

According to the Russian leader, over the past 30 years the CIS has grown into an authoritative regional integration association. “Thanks to the CIS we have preserved and even bolstered economic, social, cultural and humanitarian ties that we had when we were one state,” Vladimir Putin stressed.

Contradictions occur sometimes, he said. “It is really bad however when these contradictions lead to serious conflicts between individual CIS member states, as it happened in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the Russian president said.

Vladimir Putin also touched upon other issues in his speech, including the coronavirus pandemic, trade and investment cooperation, green economy, digitalization, innovations, human resources, the humanitarian sector, and mass communications. An important topic on the summit agenda was the shared historical legacy and protection of historical truth about the Great Patriotic War.

Vladimir Putin also mentioned the joint statement on protection of citizens’ electoral rights and guarantees of electoral sovereignty. “In this statement, the CIS countries express their commitment to the key principles of international law concerning respect for the sovereignty of states and non-interference in internal affairs, including electoral processes. This topic is, in fact, relevant to all our states,” he said.

Will Iran’s Border Flare-Up with Azerbaijan Escalate?

National Interest
Oct 14 2021

Iran continues to see Azerbaijan’s military strength and collaboration with Israel as threatening to its national security.

by Maya Carlin

Tensions are flaring between Baku and Tehran after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched widespread military drills in a show of force along their shared border. Iran’s exercises mark the first time in Azerbaijan’s thirty years of independence that a foreign state has directly threatened its sovereignty. Although Iranian officials claim the drills were aimed to protect “regional security,” they strongly insinuated that the real catalyst was the strengthening of Israeli-Azerbaijani ties. Iran, the champion of using proxy warfare to further its foreign policy, is fearful that Israel could be employing the same tactic by building a formidable base in the Caucus region.   

Baku has always shared warm relations with the Jewish state. Azerbaijan has purchased billions of dollars of weapons from Israel, and Israel imports nearly 40 percent of its oil from Azerbaijan. From 2011 to 2020, Israel accounted for 27 percent of Azerbaijan’s imports of major arms. While the details of the specific weapons purchased have not been publicized, Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev said that his country acquired $4.85 billion in defense equipment from Israel in 2016 and used Israeli-made drones in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Following Tehran’s military drills on its border with Azerbaijan, photos circulated of Aliyev posing with an Israeli-manufactured kamikaze drone. This act was likely in response to Iran’s threat to Baku over its relations with Israel.

In Tehran’s eyes, Azerbaijan’s military strength and collaboration with Israel threaten its national security. In April, Iran reported that it arrested “Israeli spies” along its shared border with Azerbaijan, highlighting the regime’s paranoia that Baku is aiding the Jewish state in anti-Iran operations. The Iranian foreign minister mirrored this rhetoric by expressing that “the Islamic Republic of Iran does not tolerate the presence and activities of the Zionist regime against its national security and will take necessary action in this regard.”

While Iran worries about the kinetic implications that enhanced Israeli-Azerbaijani relations could yield, regime officials are also concerned about being left out of the regional geopolitical picture. In addition to allying with Israel, Baku works closely with Ankara. Iran views Turkey as its competitor and is weary of the growing influence it holds in the region. Azerbaijan and Turkey have been historic allies as both countries share close cultural ties and Turkish heritage. Ankara and Baku also share economic interests that sideline Tehran. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline was initially built by Ankara to exclude Iran from critical regional infrastructure enterprises. The pipeline transports Azerbaijani oil to Turkey vis-à-vis Georgia, which eliminates the use of the Persian Gulf and the need for Iran’s participation. Although Israel and Turkey maintain a murky relationship at best, a potential Azerbaijan-Turkey-Israel coalition could pose a serious threat to Tehran.

In the age of the Abraham Accords and the Al-Ula Declaration, Iran has been excluded from and targeted by regional alliances. The historic peace deals signed in 2020 known as the Abraham Accords normalized Israeli relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. Shortly after, the Gulf Cooperation Council signed the Al-Ula Declaration, nicknamed the Gulf “solidarity pact,” in early 2021, which symbolized a united Gulf front. Both sets of peace agreements demonstrate shifting alliances in the region and have consequently pushed Iran further into isolation. Although the strengthened Israel-Azerbaijan partnership gravely concerns Tehran, the regime is likely unwilling to completely sever its ties with its Caucasus ally by escalating the conflict on the border.

 

Fake vaccine passport scandal revealed in Armenia

Oct 14 2021
 14 October 2021

A vaccination station in Yerevan. Photo: Robin Fabbro/OC Media.

Over 700 people bought fake vaccine certificates from healthcare workers in Armenia’s second-largest city Gyumri, according to the Armenian authorities. 

On Wednesday, six health workers were detained in the Gyumri Family Medical centre in Armenia’s Shirak Province after investigators revealed the distribution of fake vaccine certificates. According to the official report, the staff at the centre issued fake papers in exchange for bribes ranging from ֏5,000–֏10,000 ($10–$20).

A day earlier, the National Security Service reported they had arrested a nurse from a clinic in the village of Yeranos, in Gegharkunik Province, also for distributing fake vaccine certificates to residents of the village. 

The arrests come soon after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan expressed dissatisfaction with the low vaccination rate in the country. In a government meeting on 7 October, Pashinyan stated that he was giving a ‘task’ to the state bodies: ‘go and solve it’.

He specifically appealed to law enforcement bodies to crack down on false vaccination documents.

‘To the National Security Service and to the Police: I don’t want to hear about fake vaccinations anymore. Arrest them’, he said. 

The only such arrest before Pashinyan’s instructions was in Yerevan, when a doctor allegedly issued a fake vaccine passport in exchange for money. 

The issue of fake vaccine certificates arose after vaccination or bimonthly, paid PCR tests, became mandatory for many employees in the country. 

The Health Ministry stated on Thursday that vaccine certificates or PCR tests would soon be required to enter cafes, restaurants, and other public places. 

Amidst the growing daily cases of COVID-19 and an average of 20 daily deaths, only around 6% of the country’s population is fully vaccinated. The number of people to have received at least one dose is around 500,000 people, around 12% of the population. 


Construction noise replaces sounds of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh

EurasiaNet.org
Oct 14 2021
Gevorg Mnatsakanyan Oct 14, 2021
An image of new construction posted to Facebook in July by Karabakh’s de facto president, Arayik Harutyunyan.

In post-war Nagorno-Karabakh, perhaps no problem is as acute as housing.

The 44-day war saw Armenians lose control of about three-quarters of the land they had gained in the first war with Azerbaijan in the 1990s. As a result, about 35,000 of the territory’s roughly 150,000 people were displaced from their homes.

With the region’s housing stock depleted, thousands have been struggling to secure accommodation in the remaining territories under Armenian control, as well as in neighboring Armenia.

Housing is “the most pressing humanitarian issue today in Artsakh,” said Gegham Stepanyan, Karabakh’s human rights ombudsman, using an alternate Armenian name for the territory. Of the 200 or so complaints received by his office since the beginning of the year, the lion’s share has been from displaced people seeking shelter, he told Eurasianet.

A recent report on the humanitarian consequences of the conflict produced for the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voiced similar concerns and called on its ministerial committee “to pay particular attention to the needs and rights of displaced persons and issues surrounding their return” when drafting its action plans for Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The housing shortage has resulted in a rental boom, with landlords raising rent by as much as double in the de facto capital of Stepanakert, where many of those displaced from other parts of Karabakh have tried to resettle.

In an interview with Armenia’s state television on September 23, Minister of State Artak Beglaryan condemned the practice, vowing to crack down on unfair leasing. The authorities also are subsidizing rent for the neediest, paying more than $5 million since December 2020, Beglaryan said.

In the longer-term, the de facto government of Nagorno-Karabakh, with aid from Armenia and the global Armenian diaspora, is funding a three-year, 118-billion-dram (more than $240 million) effort to resettle those displaced.

As part of that effort, the de facto Karabakh leader, Arayik Harutyunyan, signed a government decree in July to renovate 10,000 residences abandoned or damaged by fighting both in the 1990s and in 2020, as well as to erect 6,000 new homes for the latest war stricken. The Ministry of Urban Development says a total of 195 construction companies have been involved in the works. Armenian charities like the Tufenkian Foundation are donating millions more in support.

Later that month, Harutyunyan also ordered the creation of a Housing Committee under the Minister of State and budgeted up to 5 million Armenian drams (over $10,000) in state assistance to any young family from the region willing to build a home for themselves there.

Beglaryan estimated that of the 35,000 displaced, more than two-thirds – about 25,000 – are outside Karabakh. He went so far as to stake the stability and what he called “the Armenian future” of Nagorno-Karabakh on the return of the displaced from Yerevan and other parts of Armenia.

One project currently underway is the construction of a 240-apartment complex on the northern edge of the Karabakh capital of Stepanakert, aimed at those forced to flee from the southern city of Hadrut, which is now under the control of Azerbaijan as a result of the war. 

Set to be completed by the end of 2022, all 15 buildings are financed by the diaspora-backed Hayastan All Armenia Fund and will be fitted with underground shelters – as are all new buildings being constructed now in Karabakh – the territory’s Minister of Urban Development, Aram Sargsyan, told Eurasianet.

Beyond its housing initiatives, the government is spending millions more on paving inter-city highways and local roads both old and new, and on renovating vital infrastructure including schools and hospitals damaged in the war. Social welfare programs and compensation packages for the displaced and others affected by the fighting are also in the pipeline, according to state authorities.

Providing materials for the construction will be a new cement plant near Askeran, opened in August after its construction was interrupted by last year’s war. The $2 million Savva Cement Factory is a project of the Artsakh Investment Fund, a government-affiliated entity for state-sponsored business development and housing projects, and local businessman Samvel Hakobyan.

It will produce up to 65,000 tons of cement annually, along with bricks and other construction materials, and “could be crucial to the development of the domestic economy,” said Harutyunyan in a statement after visiting the plant on September 19.

On the other side of the new line of control, meanwhile, even more ambitious construction – with estimates running to the tens of billions of dollars – is also underway.

In late August, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev lay the foundation for the first of 25 buildings in a new residential district in the center of Shusha (which Armenians spell Shushi), set to house 2,020 people; the number of future residents symbolically reflecting the year of Azerbaijan’s victory.

That new development, and other housing in the region, is being supported by other major infrastructure projects that include the recently inaugurated international airport in the southern Fuzuli region.

On both sides of the line, the construction is being facilitated by the 2,000-strong Russian peacekeeping force. Azerbaijanis rely on occasional Russian military escorts to deliver construction supplies deep into their newly retaken territories, while the Russians provide a round-the-clock watch over the Lachin corridor that connects Karabakh with Armenia, the source of most of the territory’s building materials.

In the immediate aftermath of the war, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations had shipped over 1,500 tons of humanitarian aid, including construction materials intended to “to restore the social infrastructure and housing stock” in the region, the ministry said. Later in the year, authorities in Karabakh had applied to the Russian government for 8,000 prefabricated homes, a number that has since been reduced to 1,000 and is pending approval from Moscow, Urban Development Minister Sargsyan told the Russian newspaper Kommersant in July.

For Lianna Petrosyan, 35, a theater teacher and editor of a local newspaper in Hadrut who fled to Yerevan after the city was taken by Azerbaijani forces, the construction of new housing is a welcome development.

Renting a small, 590-square-foot apartment in northeastern Yerevan, 75 percent of which was until recently subsidized by the Armenian government as part of hosting program for the displaced, Petrosyan told Eurasianet she is excited by the prospect of returning to Karabakh. “The first thing for us now is overcoming the psychological toll of knowing that some things will never be the same,” she said.

 

Gevorg Mnatsakanyan is a journalist based in Yerevan. 

Turkey and Armenia ready to ‘normalize relations’ after nearly 30 years

Oct 15 2021

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 during the first Karabakh war in a show of solidarity with its long-time ally Azerbaijan. Almost three decades later, Turkey is considering reopening that border in the aftermath of Azerbaijan’s victory in the second Karabakh war in 2020.

During Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Azerbaijan in December 2020, he said, “If positive steps are taken in this regard, we will open our closed doors.” A month later, an unnamed senior Erdogan advisor told Turkish journalist Asli Aydintasbas that Ankara was ready to “normalize relations with Armenia.”

In February 2021, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu condemned the possible coup attempt against Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who said the General Staff issued a statement calling for his resignation.

On April 24, 2021, during his meeting with Armenian Patriarch Sahak Maşalyan, Erdogan said, “It is time for us to lay bare that we as Turks and Armenians have reached the maturity of overcoming all obstacles together.”

“Everybody would win” if there were a broad regional settlement, Turkey’s former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told The Economist in May 2021.

“As a landlocked state, an open border and active trade could facilitate economic development and alleviate poverty in a country,” wrote Hans Gutbrod, a professor at Illa State University in Tbilisi, and David Wood, a professor at Seton Hall University in a June 2021 piece for Foreign Policy. Adding, “Rapprochement with Ankara may also allow Yerevan to address its near-total dependence on Russia, thereby promoting greater regional stability. And Turkey would also benefit, especially through increased trade.”

Then in August, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, said the country was ready to strengthen ties with Turkey following positive signs from Ankara. The country’s parliament approved a five-year action plan, stating that Armenia was “ready to make efforts to normalize relations with Turkey.” While the plan was approved, it was harshly criticized by opposition lawmakers, according to reporting by Civilnet.am.

The goodwill intentions were also reflected in Armenia opening its airspace to Turkish Airline flights en route to Baku.

On September 29, Turkey’s Presidential Spokesperson İbrahim Kalınm told one Turkish television channel, “In principle, we are positive about normalization with Armenia. The main reason why we ended our diplomatic relations and closed our border in 1992 was the occupation of Karabakh. With this problem resolved, there is — in fact — no obstacle to normalization with Armeni̇a.”

Turkey and Armenia were close to finding some common ground in 2008 when Turkey’s then-President Abdullah Gul traveled to Yerevan to watch the first of the two qualifying World Cup matches between Turkey and Armenia. A year later, Serge Sarkisian, the Armenian president, traveled to Turkey’s province of Bursa to watch another football game between the two national teams. The game and Sarkisian’s visit to Turkey followed the signing of a series of protocols in Zurich that were designed to normalize relations between the two countries. Described at the time as “football diplomacy,” the negotiations eventually fell through after Turkey withdrew due to mounting pressure from Azerbaijan. Armenia formally declared the protocols null and void in 2018.

Now, the chances of Azerbaijan interfering are slim. “Before Armenia’s withdrawal from this region, Baku saw Turkey’s opening of the borders as a betrayal and harshly criticized it. Now, after the truce, this issue is off the table and it won’t be a surprise to see a milder tone from Azerbaijan than in 2009,” said Ankara-based political analyst Hasan Selim Özertem in an interview with Eurasianet.

In Armenia, there are differing opinions about how this new bilateral relationship may work out, according to journalist Ani Mejlumyan writing for Eurasianet:

Most Armenian analysts and officials believe that Yerevan should pursue normalization with Ankara one on one, without Russia, Azerbaijan, or anyone else getting involved. Turkey, meanwhile, appears to be more interested in pursuing normalization in the framework of its proposed “3+3” platform, a regional body made up of the South Caucasus states and their neighbors: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, plus Iran, Russia, and Turkey.

The role that Russia would play remains to be seen. Speaking at the New Knowledge Forum in Moscow on September 3, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, “now that the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is over, there are grounds for unblocking the political process, transport, and economic ties.” In 2009, Russia openly encouraged the nation’s “football diplomacy” and welcomed the signing of the Zurich Protocols.

However, there are also “moral dimensions” at stake, according to Hans Gutbrod and David Wood:

To achieve more effective, mutually beneficial relations, both the Armenian and Turkish governments should work to reframe the Armenian genocide—and the wider suffering that accompanied the downfall of the Ottoman Empire—as a shared history. This is an inevitably long, emotionally strenuous process. For Armenia, it means shifting toward a diplomacy that invites Turkish society to engage—whether through exhibitions, travel, or academic and cultural exchange. Indeed, Armenian and Turkish societies have far more in common than what divides them. They may find the same in their histories.

One way to do this would be by focusing on individual actions and experiences rather than “collective castigations,” argue Gutbrod and Wood. They note that stories of those who stood in solidarity with Armenians remain largely untold, and perhaps now is the right time to bring those forward, to rebuild ties. But that would depend on both sides’ willingness. According to the action plan adopted by the Armenian parliament in late August, the government of Armenia will continue to lobby “for world capitals to recognize the Armenian Genocide,” which would “strengthen the system of security guarantees of Armenia.” It may prove more difficult. Ruben Melkonyan, a Turkish studies scholar at Yerevan State University, thinks Armenia may have to drop the genocide recognition now that the country is “in a weak position.”

Normalizing ties with Turkey will help build regional peace: Armenia

ToysMatrix
Oct 15 2021

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said Friday normalizing ties with Turkey would help establish lasting peace in the region and implement the agreements reached last year on the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

Speaking at a meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country leaders, Pashinian stressed that normalization between Yerevan and Ankara could accelerate settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“Starting a conversation with the aim of normalizing our relations with Turkey is another factor that could play the role of a catalyst in this issue,” he said, referring to the implementation of agreements on Nagorno-Karabakh.

He also stressed the importance of restoring transportation channels as major milestones toward normalization with Azerbaijan and the implementation of the agreements on Karabakh.

“We hope to achieve concrete results in the near future. This means that Armenia will receive railway and automobile communication with Russia and Iran through the territory of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan will receive railway and automobile communication with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through the territory of Armenia,” he said.

All these steps would serve to lay the groundwork for signing a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Pashinian noted.

“Of course, the main issue is the signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. To this end, we consider it important to restore the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) Minsk Group co-chairmanship. In recent months, the co-chairs have repeatedly noted in their statements the need to resume the peace process for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,” he said.

Relations between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, and seven adjacent regions.

When new clashes erupted on Sept. 27, 2020, the Armenian army launched attacks on civilians and Azerbaijani forces and violated several humanitarian cease-fire agreements.

During the 44-day conflict, Azerbaijan liberated several cities and nearly 300 settlements and villages from the nearly three-decade occupation.

Despite a Nov. 10 deal last year ending the conflict, the Armenian army violated the agreement a number of times and martyred several Azerbaijani soldiers and a civilian, and wounded numerous others, according to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry.