Asia Times
[Things are moving quickly with both sides making efforts to look like
they're not giving concessions]
By MK Bhadrakumar
The frozen lake of US-Iran confrontation is generating a pinging
sound. The cracking of the ice is yet to produce that loud booming
thunderclap. But these are early days.
It was only last Thursday that the US and the three European states
who are party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (2015 Iran
nuclear deal) – Germany, France and the UK, or the “E3” – lobbed a
joint statement across the court to Tehran, whereby US President Joe
Biden’s administration announced its willingness to return to
diplomacy with Iran.
It was an opening move, where the Biden administration merely
reiterated its position that it will return to the JCPOA if Tehran
returns to strict compliance with it. The E3 and the US seek to
strengthen the JCPOA to address broader security concerns related to
Iran. But certain other moves went along with it on the same day:
Washington expressed its acceptance of an invitation from the
European Union High Representative to attend a meeting of the
so-called P5+1 countries – Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and
the United States – with Iran for an informal “diplomatic
conversation” to chart a way forward;
The Biden administration rescinded the Donald Trump
administration’s decision in September 2020 to invoke “snapback
sanctions” worldwide at the United Nations – a provision under
Security Council Resolution 2231 – that was earlier rejected by the
other 14 members of the council; and
The Biden administration also informed Iran’s UN Mission in New
York that it had removed Trump’s travel restrictions on its diplomats
in New York, which allows them now to move anywhere within a 25-mile
(40-kilometer) radius of the UN headquarters. Some Iranian officials
also may be allowed to travel to the UN.
A conversation between US and Iranian diplomats in an informal setting
certainly serves a purpose insofar as it is a follow-up on an idea
floated by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif during an interview
with CNN on February 1 that the EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell
could assume the role of coordinator and create a mechanism to
choreograph the steps to be taken simultaneously by both the Iranian
and US sides to achieve JCPOA reinstatement.
Informal meeting
By Saturday, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the
country’s chief nuclear negotiator, was on record saying that Tehran
too was considering the proposition from Brussels and would “respond
to this proposal [on an informal meeting] in the future.”
Now, it is easy to see that the retraction on the “snapback sanctions”
and the removal of restrictions on Iranian diplomats are necessary
prerequisites of a US-Iranian engagement.
Meanwhile, on Friday, Biden said at the virtual Munich Security
Conference that the US is driven to “re-engage in negotiations” to
revive the JCPOA. He added a positive note: “We need transparency and
communication to minimize the rise of strategic misunderstanding or
mistakes.”
On Sunday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said
the US has started talks with Iran over the return of at least five
American hostages Tehran is holding. “We have begun to communicate
with the Iranians on this issue,” Sullivan said.
Also on Sunday, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic
Energy Agency, met with officials in Tehran to try to maintain his
inspectors’ ability to monitor Iran’s nuclear program. After the
talks, a joint statement was issued, which suggests that “a temporary
bilateral technical understanding” has been reached for a three-month
period to continue necessary verification and monitoring activities.
But the deal also calls for less access for IAEA inspectors and no
more snap inspections. That is to say, Iran is sticking to its stance
that unless the US lifts its sanctions, it will soon abandon the
Additional Protocol of the JCPOA, but is only partially curbing the
inspectors’ activity at this point.
Broadly, both the US and Iran are slowly but steadily edging back to
the negotiating table. Both want the other party to go first, and
neither would allow perceptions of weakness to form or that they’re
acting under pressure. It’s a delicate tango where both are also
compromising while appearing to do otherwise.
Newspapers on Sunday carried sensational reports quoting a
national-security source that the US is considering sanctions relief
for Iran as a first step toward reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. If so,
Washington is about to make the first move on the expectation that
Tehran would reciprocate with some significant compromises.
A difficult path for Biden
“Sanctions relief is definitely coming, not today or tomorrow but it
is coming,” the UK’s Sunday Times quoted its source.
But the catch is that Iran can return to the JCPOA by ceasing to
enrich uranium over the limit set by the deal, exporting most of its
stockpile, and warehousing banned centrifuges, whereas the Biden
administration has a far more difficult path to traverse by way of
untangling scores of Trump-era financial, economic, trade, targeted
personal and business sanctions and lift those that violate the JCPOA.
One possibility is that the Biden administration may move in this
direction after the “diplomatic conversation” that the EU
foreign-policy chief is facilitating. In Tehran’s estimation, the
lifting of US sanctions is now a foregone conclusion, only a matter of
time. There is much optimism that the White House will not allow any
interference by the United States’ regional allies.
A commentary published by Iran’s official Islamic Republic News Agency
(IRNA) draws satisfaction that President Biden “gave a cold shoulder”
to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and has not forgotten the
latter’s defiant behavior toward then president Barack Obama by
attending a congressional hearing in Washington without being invited
by the administration and criticizing the administration’s
negotiations with Iran.
It had “angered the then vice-President Joe Biden, who shouted that no
authority in Israel has the right to humiliate the US president.
Netanyahu has been advised to avoid direct confrontation with the
Biden administration.”
Again, there is talk that the White House intends to release a
redacted version of the Central Intelligence Agency report on the
brutal killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the consulate in
Istanbul in 2018. If the report holds that the Saudi crown prince is
culpable for the murder, it will rock US-Saudi relations.
Biden has made his aversion toward the Crown Prince Mohammad bin
Salman known by letting it be known that he will only interact with
King Salman.
Clearly, there is a profound sense of unease in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates over the Biden administration’s decision to
engage with Iran. Conceivably, Tehran senses that a historic moment is
at hand marking the end of the United States’ decades-old strategy to
encircle Iran with an alliance of the Gulf Arab states and Israel.
As the situation around Iran begins to transform through the coming
weeks and months, West Asian politics and the regional security
scenario will change beyond recognition. The Western powers are for
the first time talking about the imperative need of reconciliation
between and among the regional states of the Persian Gulf instead of
fueling the regional rifts and capitalizing on them.
In their statement of February 18, the US and E3 “expressed their
joint determination to work toward de-escalating tensions in the Gulf
region.” By force of circumstances, the Western powers are
appropriating an idea that Russia and China have been expounding all
along.
Category: 2021
CivilNet: Highly Likely Amulsar Mine Will Open, Says Armenian PM
By Emilio Luciano Cricchio
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated in an interview with 1in.am news website that it is highly probable that the Amulsar gold mine will open.
“My attitude towards Amulsar has not changed. (…) There is a possibility that the mine will be opened, and we can say that the probability is high,” Pashinyan said.
This comes as many have criticized the Armenian government for not clearly outlining whether it is in favor or against the future opening of the gold mine.
The Armenian PM stipulated that due to the war, the flow of tourists into the country ceased, which along with currency problems caused significant economic hardship.
He went on to say that the mining industry is one of the economic sectors that guarantees cash and currency flows into Armenia.
Despite this, many protesters, environmental activists and residents of Jermuk, the town closest to the mine, have been blockading the entrances of the mine for over two years, stating that the mine’s operation will cause significant environmental consequences, including the possible polluting of local water supplies.
Meanwhile, Lydian International, the company running the mine, has been arguing that the protest blockade is illegal.
Armenian opposition announces new protest march in Yerevan today
Armenia’s opposition Homeland Salvation Movement has announced a new protest march in Yerevan on Tuesday evening.
In a statement, the coalition of 17 parties said the march will start from the area close to Aram Manoukian statue in downtown Yerevan at 6pm.
“We urge citizens to take an active part in the protest, which should be an adequate response to the police brutality against activists protesting outside the third government building today, injuries inflicted on citizens and unjustified detentions,” the statement said.
Expert: US sanctions against Armenia not ruled out due to Boeing 737-related issue
Expert in international studies Suren Sargsyan says the U.S. may impose sanctions on Armenia after U.S.-made Boeing 737 aircraft, which was bound for Yerevan, ended up in Iran under yet unclear circumstances.
In a statement on Tuesday, the Civil Aviation Committee of Armenia said it has not received any confirmed information that the aircraft registered in Armenia “has been hijacked halfway”, as some reports suggest.
“The aircraft may have been hijacked but the committee is not aware of it,” Sargsyan wrote on Facebook, adding a probe into the circumstance of the incident is underway.
“Clear actions by the U.S. against Armenia, including sanctions, are not ruled out in the wake of the incident,” he said.
Sargsyan suggested returning the plane to Armenia and holding those responsible to account to avoid the possible negative consequences.
“In general, we should not interfere in confrontations of the superpowers at all and should maintain neutrality, especially when both are friendly states,” the expert said.
Political scientist: Pro-Armenian reports appeared in Ukrainian media due to Ara Saghatelyan’s efforts during war
A group of people, including political scientists and NGO representatives, on Tuesday held a rally outside the National Security Service of Armenia (NSS) in support of Ara Saghatelyan, a former chief of staff of the National Assembly, who has been placed under a two-month arrest in compliance with a court ruling.
Political scientist, head of the Voskanapat Analytical Center Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan told reporters that they have gathered outside the building of the law enforcement agency to show both the public and the NSS investigators who Ara Saghatelyan is and how he counteracted the Azerbaijani propaganda machine to make Armenia’s position clear and accessible to all those dealing with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
“We have brought materials which we will hand over to the NSS so that they understand who they are dealing with. I deeply regret that the agency intended to ensure security, leaving aside the issues of national security, actually serves the traitor and makes every effort to complete the betrayal started by Nikol Pashinyan in regard to the Artsakh issue,” he said.
According to Melik-Shahnazaryan, people who can offer pro-Armenian solutions in the current situation are factually isolated.
The political scientist strongly believes that Nikol Pashinyan has a plan and is consistently implementing it.
“He did everything possible to pave the way for our defeat in the war and the surrender of our homeland to the enemy. He signed documents, which will make it difficult to rectify the situation. Now he orders arrests of people who did their best for the Artsakh issue to be properly covered by the international media,” he said.
The political scientist stated that during the 2020 Artsakh war, when Ara Saghatelyan worked with foreign media representatives in Stepanakert, coordinating their work and using his personal ties and opportunities, the NSS wiretapped his phone calls.
“Let me bring an example: Saghatelyan managed to change the situation overnight amid the anti-Armenian propaganda in the Ukrainian media from the first days of the war. He did his best to change the situation in our favor. On these very days, the NSS wiretapped Saghatelyan’s phone calls, but failed to find anything,” Melik-Shahnazaryan said.
Police officers push media representative to the ground at opposition protest in Yerevan
Police officers pushed Sputnik Armenia photographer Aram Nersesyan to the ground while detaining opposition activists during a protest organized by the opposition Homeland Salvation Movement in Yerevan on Tuesday morning.
As reported earlier, police used brute force on the activists at the protest against PM Nikol Pashinyan outside the third government building, with reporters covering the civil disobedience act also being affected in the process.
Photos released by reporter Aksanna Hayrapetyan show photographer Aram Nersesyan lying on the ground. Fortunately, he suffered no injuries.
Armen Minasyan: Ara Saghatelyan is a man who won information war against Azerbaijan
Employees of Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) met with participants in a rally held in front of the NSS building on Tuesday in support of arrested former senior parliament staffer Ara Saghatelyan and asked them to hand over the books placed in front of the entrance of the building to the NSS reception.
One of the participants, political scientist Armen Minasyan, told reporters that the protest action was successful in some sense.
“You all know who Ara Saghatelyan is. Those gathered here are members of a team that took efforts to counteract the Azerbaijani propaganda, and led by Saghatelyan, carried out a great deal of work. It might sound kind of immodest, but I can say that we are talking about a person who won the information war against Azerbaijan before, during and after the April 2016 war,” said Armen Minasyan, who is an author and co-author of films exposing Azerbaijani lies.
Minasyan stressed that the rally is aimed to show that Ara Saghatelyan is the last person to be accused of negatively influencing the war. He considers it absurd that Saghatelyan is being accused of Armenia’s defeat in the recent Artsakh war.
“Some act which has had a negative impact on the recent war is ascribed to him. The absurdity has reached the point where after assessing the outcomes of the war, the authorities decided that Ara Saghatelyan was to blame for the defeat. As if it was he who ordered the transfer of servicemen to frontlines by trucks, with the latter being killed in Bayraktar drone attacks halfway. We have ended up in this situation. Today a man has been arrested who, by his very nature and biography, cannot be accused of what he is being accused of,” he said.
Armen Minasyan, who was the deputy head of the Public Relations and Information Center SNCO during Saghatelyan’s tenure, noted that in those years a large analytical base was created, valuable books were published, films and websites were created that exposed the lies of the Azerbaijani propaganda. The materials collected and published by the center were used by the Foreign Ministry.
“They were also used by the current authorities, but this is what we got,” he said.
Mikayel Minasyan: Armenia’s economy on the brink of default
“There is a real risk that the Armenian economy may occur on the brink of default,” Armenia’s former Ambassador to the Holy See Mikayel Minasyan wrote on his Telegram channel, commenting on the current state of affairs in economy. “The service of foreign debt is increasing day by day with higher loan repayment rates. This means, Armenia will be unable to not only borrow new debt, but international financial institutions may also request direct control of the country’s economy,” according to Minasyan.
“A month ago, the government issued new Eurobond worth $750 million, thus increasing the public debt by 10%. These funds were envisaged to spend on economic activity and growth, increase the GDP, but as it turned out, the funds were envisaged to pay salaries and bonuses to officials. After the change of the power in Armenia, the country’s national debt rose by 2.3 billion USD. By the end of the year, the state debt will exceed the established ceiling and reach 70% percent of GDP,” Minasyan wrote.
The former Ambassador reminded that the Armenian legislation establishes debt ceiling of 60% of GDP, while at present the state debt is around 65-66% of GDP. In his words, the national debt has thus crossed the established upper level of the debt.
Minasyan also reminded that 70% of the total debt is in foreign currency which poses another risk as the exchange rates are fluctuating. “At present, every citizen of the Republic of Armenia has a real debt of 2,960 USD. The citizens of Armenia pay a high price for Nikol’s mistakes, including financially. They pay high price in place of their children, leaving huge debts and a country with uncompetitive economy to future generations,” Minasyan concluded.
Protest march demanding Pashinyan’s resignation held in Yerevan
A protest march demanding the resignation of Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan kicked off in Yerevan on Tuesday evening.
The march, organized by the opposition Homeland Salvation Movement, started from the area close to Aram Manoukian statue in downtown Yerevan at 6pm.
Earlier on Tuesday, opposition activists gathered in front of the 3rd government complex to prevent Pashinyan from entering the building. The premier managed to enter the building amid the chants “Traitor!”.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF, Dashnaktsutyun) Supreme Council of Armenia member Ishkhan Saghatelyan announced during the protest that they were to march to the buildings of the National Security Service and Police of Armenia.
“Everything is crystal clear; we will not allow Nikol Pashinyan to establish dictatorship in our country relying on the police support. We will not allow dictatorship of one man to be established in our country through state terror. Dear police officers, I appeal to you, wake up, do not serve the madman, do not fulfil the illegal orders of the madman, stand by the people to save our country!” Saghatelyan said.
Drivers expressed support to protesters through signals as they reached Koryun Street. Ishkhan Saghatelyan said that in parallel to the march opposition activists blocked traffic on some streets in Yerevan in an act of disobedience.
The participants of the march reached the police building with large police forces deployed in the area. Opposition politicians laid flowers in front of the statue near the building.
“Police have become a tool of the current authorities to pressure its citizens and use violence against them,” Saghatelyan said, condemning the police brutality against protesters earlier today and stating that they will be held to account.
Also, he read out the names of the police officers who had committed illegal actions during the protest. Ishkhan Saghatelyan called on policemen not to abide by illegal orders.
Armenia PM walks to 3rd building of government while being called "traitor"
YEREVAN. – Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan walked from the main building of the government to the third building of the government under the chants, “Nikol, the traitor,” by protesters.
Hundreds of police had cordoned off the area to enable Pashinyan to reach the third building of the government.
In addition, police forces were concentrated at the nearby square by buses from early in the morning.
As reported earlier, at the end of Monday’s protests of the Homeland Salvation Movement—which demands the resignation of PM Nikol Pashinyan, Ishkhan Saghatelyan, a representative of the Armenia Supreme Body of the opposition Armenian Revolutionary Federation-ARF Dashnaktsutyun Party and coordinator of the aforesaid movement, had called to the people to be near the third building of the government at 11:30am Tuesday, as Pashinyan was to come to that building.