Category: 2020

Asia Times
The specter of Russia establishing a military base in Libya also
haunts the US and NATO
by MK Bhadrakumar
   
[Photo: AFP] Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, center, Libyan
commander Khalifa Haftar, right, and the Libyan Parliament speaker
Aguila Saleh arrive for a joint press conference in the capital Cairo
on June 6.
The series of debilitating military setbacks that Libya’s renegade
general Khalifa Haftar suffered in recent months have spurred
diplomatic activities over the conflict in the country. But the war is
far from over.
Haftar’s dream of capturing Tripoli from the internationally
recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister
Fayez al-Sarraj has been dashed. Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA)
has retreated from several cities northwest of Tripoli, near the
border with Tunisia, as well as al-Watiya airbase, a strategic asset
southwest of the capital.
A comeback by Haftar can only take place in the fullness of time and
that too, if his mentors – France, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates,
Saudi Arabia and Russia – repose confidence in him still. Haftar seems
to have overreached, and the present setback dents his credibility.
Egypt reacted swiftly by getting Haftar and Aguila Saleh Issa, the
head of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives – the third
protagonist in the Libyan strife – over to Cairo for a patch-up, after
which, on June 6, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi announced a
grandiose roadmap called the Cairo Declaration to end the Libyan
conflict.
The Cairo Declaration envisaged a ceasefire starting June 8 (which
didn’t happen) followed by “disbanding militias, handing over their
arms, pulling out foreign forces, electing a ruling presidential
council representing all Libyans and drafting of a constitutional
declaration to regulate elections for later stages.”
Sisi’s Cairo Declaration was welcomed by the Arab Gulf states and
Russia, while the GNA backed by Turkey remains disinterested and hopes
to make some more territorial gains so as to be able to negotiate from
a position of strength. The GNA and Turkey estimate – rightly so –
that any respite at this point will be utilized by Haftar and his
backers to recoup and plan anew to return to the battlefield to make
another bid to rule Libya.
In immediate terms, the bone of contention is the port city of Sirte
and al-Jufra airbase in the central region. Sirte is adjacent to the
so-called “oil crescent” comprising Libya’s key oil terminals, and the
GNA and Turkey intend to gain control over them.
As for al-Jufra airbase, the GNA and Turkey fear that Russia, which
has a presence there, must be pre-empted from consolidating by
bringing in reinforcements of mercenaries.
In tactical terms, the GNA and Turkey calculate that if the military
pressure continues on Haftar, it will weaken him further, making it
easier to eliminate him from the Libyan chessboard forever, depriving
his backers of a surrogate figure.
For the first time after the latest phase of the conflict unfolded,
Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged his Turkish counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan in a phone conversation on Wednesday. The Kremlin
readout said:
“During their in-depth discussion of the developments in Libya, they
expressed their concerns over the continued large-scale armed clashes
in the country.… Vladimir Putin noted that it was important to adhere
to a ceasefire as soon as possible and to resume the intra-Libyan
dialogue based on the decisions of the Berlin International Conference
on January 19, 2020, and approved by UN Security Council Resolution
2510, as well as other initiatives aimed at a political and diplomatic
settlement of the conflict.”
Interestingly, Ankara refrained from issuing any customary press
release regarding the conversation. Turkish media merely reported,
citing presidential sources in Ankara, that the two leaders “discussed
tensions in Libya and Syria’s Idlib province.” Evidently, Turkey
didn’t want to commit to a ceasefire yet.
Prior to engaging with Erdogan, Putin had also held discussions with
Egyptian President Sisi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel (who had
called him) to take a coordinated stance on the Cairo Declaration as a
basis for UN-sponsored intra-Libyan talks.
If Moscow’s intention was to hustle Erdogan, it hasn’t worked. Erdogan
is hanging tough. It remains to be seen whether he would give up his
military campaign to capture Sirte and al-Jufra airbase when Haftar’s
forces are demoralized and his mentors are still groping for a way
forward. On the other hand, Russia is unlikely to give up the base
easily and will bring in mercenaries to counter the GNA offensive.
According to reports, Russia recently transferred more than a dozen
fighter jets to al-Jufra. Turkey anticipates that Russia has plans to
turn al-Jufra into a military base. The specter of Russia establishing
a military base in Libya also haunts the US and the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization. On Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg regarding
Libya as well as general security issues.
There is a congruence among Ankara, Brussels and Washington that any
moves to establish a Russian military base in Libya must be
pre-empted, as that would foreclose NATO’s planned intervention in
Libya and future expansion plans in Africa, apart from weakening the
alliance’s dominance of the Mediterranean while Russia strengthens its
presence in the eastern Mediterranean and challenges Turkey’s
historical pre-eminence in the region.
Indeed, a big contingent of Turkish forces and large quantities of
weapons and aircraft have been transported audaciously across the
Mediterranean along sea lanes and air space that are closely monitored
by NATO, the European Union and the United States. Yet there has not
been a single instance of interception – even though there is a UN
embargo on arms supplies to Libya.
After a phone conversation with US President Donald Trump on June 8 in
which Libya was the main topic of discussion, Erdogan claimed that a
“new era can begin” in Turkish-American relations. He added, “We had
reached some consensus in the conversation.… They [Americans] are also
curious about the developments in Libya. He [Trump] has confirmed the
developments and that we [Turkey] are successful in Libya.”
Erdogan stressed, “Now the goal is to take Sirte completely, including
the surroundings of Sirte. These are the regions where oil wells are
located. It will be much more comfortable as soon as they are
handled.” Clearly, Erdogan calculates that Turkey’s success in Libya
holds the potential to shape its relations with the United States.
Erdogan is all pumped up. As a top Saudi establishment commentator,
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, wrote on June 9, “In a move of a kind not seen
since the fall of the Ottoman Empire 100 years ago, Turkey crossed the
Mediterranean.”
But Trump has since sprung a surprise by voicing support for a
ceasefire. Washington is apprehensive over reports that Egypt may send
its forces into Libya to stem the tide of the Turkish intervention.
Besides, Turkey’s belligerence has prompted Greece, its perennial
rival, to enter the fray, which puts two NATO countries at
loggerheads.
No doubt, the Gulf states and Egypt remain stakeholders in Libya. The
GNA is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, and there is hardly any
scope for compromise. Although the GNA’s territorial control has
doubled, it still controls less than one-fifth of Libya, while the LNA
remains in possession of something like 60% of the country, including
the oilfields.
Of course, if the Turkish forces seize Sirte and Benghazi, that would
phenomenally change the rules of the game in Libya and throughout the
region. But it is a bit early to speak of that.
MK Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat.