Category: 2020

OilPrice
By Cyril Widdershoven
Jul 05, 2020
The rosy future of the offshore East Mediterranean (East-Med) gas boom
is in jeopardy. The current COVID-related economic downturn, combined
with the dramatic drop in demand for oil and gas worldwide, has
already led to several delays for major offshore gas projects in
Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel, and Greece. Offshore E&P budgets have been
cut by all oil and gas companies, leaving no room for high-risk
natural gas developments in the East Med in the coming years. At the
same time, geopolitical and military tensions between Turkey and the
other players in the region, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and even Israel is
rising fast. Ankara’s unexpected but strong support for the Libyan
Tripoli-based government which is fighting out a long-lasting conflict
against East Libyan general Haftar’s LNA forces has not only tilted
the power structure in Libya, but has also put Ankara, as a NATO
member, on a collision course with Russia and the UAE.
At the same time, Turkish military moves in Libya, aiming to not only
open up Africa’s largest oil reserves to Turkish companies but also to
expand its sphere of influence in the East Med, have put a
confrontation with Egypt and possibly France on the table. In 2020, a
military confrontation between NATO members (Turkey-France) or allies
of NATO (UAE, Egypt, Israel) in the Middle East is no longer
unthinkable. Ankara’s approach in Libya suggests an aggressive Turkish
military strategy intended to set up military bases in the region.
On July 3, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Chief of General
Staff Gen. Yasar Guler have visited Libya to review the activities
carried out under a memorandum of understanding between the two
countries. The main focus during the visit was the expansion of the
Defense Security Cooperation and Training Assistance Advisory Command,
which was created within the scope of the memorandum of understanding
(MoU) between Turkey and Libya on November 27, 2019. In the same MOU,
Turkey and Libya signed the highly contested EEZ agreement, that
asserts Turkey's rights in the Eastern Mediterranean, putting Ankara
on a full collision course with Cyprus, Egypt, and Greece. A military
confrontation of some sort has been a distinct possibility since that
moment.
Turkey-Libya maritime deal, via trtworld.com Ankara’s aggressive
moves, however, may have reached a point of no return in the last few
days.
On June 10, Turkish navy vessels conducted radar-targeting on a French
warship trying to approach a Turkish civilian ship suspected of
skirting a NATO arms embargo on Libya. French government sources have
reported that France’s Courbet frigate was “lit up” three times by
Turkish radar. The incident has led to the end of French support for
the NATO naval mission, while officially requesting a NATO
investigation.
France, and indirectly other NATO countries, such as Italy and Greece,
are now openly discussing supporting the Eastern Libyan general
Haftar, whose forces have come under pressure after his latest
military assault on the GNA ruled region around Tripoli ended in an
unexpected defeat. Egypt has also now openly warned Turkey and the GNA
forces not to cross the Sirte line, a key threshold in the Libyan oil
sector. If Ankara and Tripoli continue their military advance,
Egyptian president Sisi has warned that the Egyptian armed forces will
enter Libya to support Haftar.
The current crisis within NATO (and the EU), sparked by Turkish
actions is a major concern.
A military conflict within the alliance will not only weaken its
position with regards to Russia’s power projections, but also puts
security in the (East) Mediterranean at risk. France at present
lobbying to put sanctions on Turkey. On July 13, a council of EU
foreign ministers will discuss EU-Turkish relations.
While all eyes are now on Libya, Turkey’s military moves in the East
Med are even more worrying. As some have indicated already, Turkey’s
Libya adventure falls within the strategy of squeezing the Middle East
into submission. Ankara’s military projects in Qatar, the Horn of
Africa, Sudan, and now Libya, set up a circle of military power
threatening Arab nations, at least in their views. East Med military
moves, officially to support Turkish oil and gas companies to search
for offshore reserves, are a direct threat to Greece and Cyprus. The
so-called ultra-nationalist “Blue Homeland” military strategy adopted
by Turkey is clear in its goals. Erdogan’s military doctrine targets
the domination of the Aegean, most of the Mediterranean, and of the
Black Sea. The ongoing provocations in the East Med, which doesn’t
only include Greece-Cyprus but also Egypt and Israel, are the
evidence.
The current chaos in NATO and the EU could hamper a joint concerted
action in case of unwanted Turkish action in the region. During the
last couple of years, analysts have focused on perceived
U.S./Washington support for East Med economic and energy integration
via the East Med Gas Forum.
The U.S. Senate and Congress have even supported some anti-Turkish
moves, such as the end of military sanctions on Cyprus. Washington,
especially via its thinktanks, such as Atlantic Council, has been
painting a positive pro-East Med (Greece, Cyprus, Egypt-Israel)
picture of economic, political, and military support. This policy, as
has been stated by some, needs to be taken with a truck-load of salt,
as the Trump Administration is once again opening up to Ankara.
A U.S.-NATO intervention or a concentrated EU move in the case of
Turkish action seems unrealistic, and Erdogan seems to know this based
on his recent actions.  As long as Europe and NATO, both of which have
their HQs in Brussels, keep a low profile without countering Turkish
moves, Greece and Cyprus will be the next targets for a Turkish
military move.
The East Med tinder box is not only a threat to its offshore gas
future. A military conflict in the region, involving Turkey, will
threaten several major commodity and trade chokepoints. A
confrontation could lead to a major blockade of the Dardanelles
(Istanbul), the Suez Canal (Egypt), and the route between Libya and
the southern Italian islands. Ankara’s regional power play is not only
of concern to the littoral states of the East Med, but also to GCC oil
and gas exporters and EU-Asian trade. Erdogan’s regional gamble could
end up being a major catastrophe.
 

Deutsche Welle
July 5, 2020
Currently, everyone in Turkey is talking about "Generation Z" — a term
that refers to those young people born around the turn of the
millennium. It is a generation that knows no other Turkey than one
ruled by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamic-conservative Justice and
Development Party (AKP). And it is also a generation of digital
natives who like to spend lots of time on social media.
The group recently got Turkey's attention as the result of an obscure
political decision that moved the date for the country's annual
college entrance exams — an existential test that youth across the
country cram for every year — up a month, from late July, to June
27-28.
Students were furious because they suspected the move was nothing more
than a gimmick to benefit the country's ailing tourism industry, which
has been is crisis mode since the coronavirus first hit. Students say
the plan is to get them to go on vacation — despite the ongoing threat
of infection — since they will be finished with studying a month
earlier than planned. The Turkish government denies such accusations.
Youth increasingly uneasy
"It's awful that the economy and the tourism industry are being given
priority over our health," says 19-year-old Asli from Ankara. She took
the test for the second time and says she was under a lot of pressure
to do better this time.
"We're in a situation where we just don't know who to trust anymore,"
says Fatih, also a student from Ankara. Fatih says it was unclear if
the test would really be rescheduled or not, adding, "This is Turkey,
anything can happen."
[Photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets with youth via
social media in Istanbul. Erdogan faced disapproval from some young
voters when met them directly via social media]
Recently, young Turks gave the president a taste of their disapproval
as only they can. When Erdogan took to YouTube on the day before the
exam for a "Meet with the kids" event, the nice words he used to
address these potential voters fell on deaf ears. In fact, the youth
tuning in were quick to voice their anger. Thousands blasted Erdogan,
taunting him with real-time comments, only to then move on to the next
platform — like Twitter, where they railed further and launched the
hashtag campaign #OyMoyYok (Not getting my vote), which proceeded to
spread like wildfire.
Who is Generation Z?
Since then, Generation Z has become the object of study. Essentially,
the group consists of anyone born between the years 1995 and 2010.
Estimates suggest that some 13 million young Turks fit into that group
and that they could play a key role in future elections. Many will
soon be able to vote for the first time but no one really knows just
how they tick.
[Photo: Baris Ülgen complains that there is no party to represent his
political views.]
A major study conducted by the Gezici Arastirma Merkezi Institute
recently took a closer look at youth in 12 of Turkey's 81 provinces.
The main aim of the study was to get a picture of their attitudes
toward religion, their worldview and their political leanings.
"This generation will be a decisive factor in the 2023 parliamentary
elections," says Murat Gezici. He says young voters will make up about
12% of the electorate, and can thus dictate some of the issues debated
during the election — namely those of fairness and income.
Researcher Gezici says young voters are, "more environmentally
friendly, empathetic, sensitive and thoughtful" than previous
generations. Moreover, the study found these young voters also have
influence over how their parents vote. Though the same does not work
the other way around, with "87.5% saying their parents' opinions have
no influence on how they will cast their votes," says Gezici, who adds
that the country's youth seems disinterested in traditional values.
Facing a future abroad
In light of Turkey's ongoing economic crisis, it seems highly unlikely
that young voters will find anything inspiring in Erdogan's AKP.
According to the government statistics office, youth unemployment
(ages 15-24) in the country has been hovering around 25% for months.
That is why many qualified young Turks are simply leaving the country
and heading to Europe — starting a brain drain that could have grave
long-term consequences for the Turkish job market.
Baris Ulgen, who just finished his electrical engineering studies at
Istanbul's Sabanci University, says none of the country's political
parties represent him and that he won't be giving any of them his
vote. He is pessimistic about Turkey's future: "I love my country, but
I think its time for me to go abroad for a while."
[Photo: Simge Koraltan is among those who complain that the future is
far from secure.]
Simge Koraltan, a 17-year-old student, is also concerned about the
future of the country: "One can't really say what is going to happen
over the course of the next two years." She says she feels fortunate
that her studies will allow her to go abroad, but adds that she really
doesn't want to leave.
Old folks' politics?
Journalist and academic Can Ertuna says it's impossible to connect
with young voters "the old way." He says a new language needs to be
found to address a generation that is more comfortable on social media
than anywhere else: "We are talking about people who use YouTube as
their browser and get their news via Instagram." Ertuna adds that
politicians desperately need to find more solutions to age-specific
problems as well.
Political scientist Nezih Onur Kuru is highly critical of the
government because the ruling AKP and the ultranationalist MHP spend
most of their energy addressing only the issues that concern older,
conservative, rural voters. He says that makes the gulf between those
in power and the youth of the country unbridgeable: "The anger over
the exams was a turning point. Just like parliamentary elections in
2023 will be a turning point — because that is when Generation Z will
hold the balance of power."
Millions of young Turks will soon be of voting age and President
Erdogan wants to win them over. Yet many of the country's youth feel
rebellious and openly reject him.