Category: 2020

   Parution sur l’avenir des langues , dans lequel un chapitre est consacré à la situation particulière des écoles arméniennes de France.

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Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
By Burak Bekdil 
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,636, 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Only 12% of Turks say they trust Islamic clerics,
and more and more young Turks are unhappy at religious school. As high
a proportion as 60.5% of pro-Erdoğan youths say they would rather live
in Switzerland with half the salary they could have earned in Saudi
Arabia. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.99—below the 2.1 rate
required to sustain existing population figures. Despite Erdoğan’s
unchallenged popularity, power, and authoritarian rule, Turkey is
evolving demographically in a way that defies the dictates of Islamist
social engineering.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not lost a single election,
including municipal elections and referenda, since his AKP (Justice
and Development) party came to power in November 2002. This is
ostensibly a flawless performance for a politician. But Erdoğan wants
more than just to win one election after another. In 2012 he declared
his political mission to be “raising devout generations.” That is a
far more ambitious mission than just winning at the ballot box.
Credible recent surveys indicate that Erdoğan’s 18-year reign has
failed to achieve his broader political mission.
Optimar, a Turkish pollster, found that in 2017, 99% of Turks
identified as Muslim, but in 2019, that figure had slid to 89.5%.
Konda, another pollster, found in 2019 that Turkish youths were less
likely than the wider population to call themselves “religious
conservative.” They were also less likely to fast, pray regularly, or,
if female, cover their hair.
Another survey, part of OECD’s Programme for International Student
Assessment, revealed that 54% of imam school students do not feel they
belong at their school, compared to 27.5%-29.1% of students at
non-religious schools. Most embarrassing for Islamists, perhaps, were
the findings of a survey by Ipsos, an international pollster. Ipsos
found that only 12% of Turks trust Islamic clerics, the worst score
after politicians (who are trusted by 11%).
A more recent survey found that even conservative, pro-Erdoğan youths
have no faith in either their own country or other Islamic countries.
SODEV, a Turkish foundation, asked young people between the ages of 15
and 25 whether they would live abroad if given the chance. Almost half
(47.3%) of those youths who said they supported Erdoğan’s AKP said
they preferred to live abroad. “That means half of Erdoğan’s youth
have no faith in Turkey’s future,” wrote Akif Beki, a former spokesman
for Erdoğan and a columnist.
SODEV’s “Youth Research” was not encouraging for Erdoğan and
ideologues who advocate authoritarian, top-down social engineering
aimed at producing Islamist youth. SODEV asked pro-Erdoğan (pro-AKP)
young people whether they would rather live in Switzerland on $5,000
per month or in Saudi Arabia on $10,000 per month. As many as 60.5% of
them said they would prefer Switzerland.
Why would fiercely nationalist, religiously conservative, pro-Erdoğan
young Turks prefer to live in a Christian European country? Haven’t
they been listening to Erdoğan’s aggressive anti-Western rhetoric for
the past 18 years? SODEV’s survey provides an answer to that question
too. According to the study, 70.3% of respondents think a talented
young Turk would never be able to promote him- or herself
professionally in Turkey without [political/bureaucratic]
“connections”—that is, without the help of nepotism. And only 30% of
them think they can freely express their opinions on social media.
When asked to name the most significant idea in life, 49.8% cited
“national values” and 45.7% cited “religious values.” But 68.3% cited
“freedom to express one’s opinion.” Apparently, Turkey’s lack of
freedom, equal opportunity, and social mobility tells young Turks that
they would be better off in a Christian country. “That’s because young
Turks, including [those who are] pro-Erdoğan, know they could
fearlessly express their opinions in Switzerland…that they could have
a [successful] professional career without resorting to nepotism and
that they would not face police interrogation just because they
expressed their opinions,” commented columnist Elif Çakır.
Another of Erdoğan’s social engineering failures is the greying of
Turkey. Since 2008, the Islamist-populist leader has repeatedly urged
Turkish families to have at least three children—“four or five if
possible.” Without naming names, Erdogan justified this quest as a
defense against “those [foreign plotters who] want to annihilate our
nation.”
Despite Erdoğan’s baby boom campaign, the number of healthy births in
Turkey dropped by 3.6% to 1.248 million in 2018 versus 1.295 million
in 2017. The overall fertility rate fell to 1.99 from 2.07, meaning
Turkey is now reproducing below the 2.1 rate required to maintain the
population at current levels.
Turkey’s demographic evolution defies the dictates of Erdoğan’s
Islamist social engineering despite his unchallenged popularity,
power, and authoritarian rule. Turkish families ignore his instruction
to have at least three children, and his younger supporters are ready
to pack up and move to a Christian country.
This is not the demographic picture Erdoğan dreamed of, but it is the
natural outcome of his democratic shortcomings. As I have suggested
before, “Perhaps Erdoğan’s best service to his country is to show
young Turks what it actually means to live under an Islamist regime.”
Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based columnist. He regularly writes for the
Gatestone Institute and Defense News and is a fellow at the Middle
East Forum.
 

                                        Thursday, July 9, 2020
Armenian Tax Revenue Falls Amid Recession
        • Sargis Harutyunyan
Armenia -- The entrance to the State Revenue Committee headquarters in Yerevan, 
November 29, 2018.
In another sign of a coronavirus-driven recession in the country, the Armenian 
government reported on Thursday a 4.6 percent fall in its tax revenues in the 
first half of this year.
The State Revenue Committee (SRC) said it collected 680.3 billion drams ($1.4 
billion) in various taxes and customs duties, down from 713.3 billion drams 
collected in January-June 2019.
The drop came after several consecutive years of rapid increase in Armenia’s tax 
revenues. It reflects a sharp economic downturn that began with the onset of the 
coronavirus pandemic in March.
Vahagn Khachatrian, a veteran economist, said the pandemic and the resulting 
economic disruptions made the tax shortfall inevitable. “This situation is 
expected to continue because we still don’t know what how long the coronavirus 
crisis will last,” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.
“This is a cause for serious concern,” another economist, Gevorg Parsian, said 
of the shortfall. He construed it as further proof of a serious economic crisis 
in Armenia.
Parsian also said that the SRC failed to meet its revenue target not only 
because of the pandemic but also tax cuts that took effect in January.
Finance Minister Atom Janjughazian predicted a revenue shortfall already in 
April, saying that it will total 170 billion drams ($350 million) this year. 
Shortly afterwards, the government amended its 2020 budget to take account of 
the lower-than-projected tax receipts as well as 150 billion drams ($310 
million) in coronavirus-related relief measures financed by it.
The government plans to borrow more than $530 million from mainly foreign 
sources in order to cover the extra budget deficit. It secured a $280 million 
loan from the International Monetary Fund in May.
The governor of the country’s Central Bank, Martin Galstian, forecast last week 
that the Armenian economy will contract by 4 percent this year due to the 
negative impact of the pandemic. But he said it should recover and grow by 5.5 
percent already next year.
Armenian Government Sticks To COVID-19 Strategy
Armenia -- People wear face masks in the center of Yerevan, June 10, 2020.
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian indicated on Thursday that his government has no 
plans yet to change its strategy of tackling the coronavirus pandemic.
Pashinian said the government will keep putting the emphasis on getting more 
Armenians to practice social distancing and wear face masks in all public spaces 
and is ready to take the “strictest administrative measures” for that purpose.
“I want to again emphasize that our anti-epidemic strategy remains the same,” he 
said at the start of a weekly cabinet meeting in Yerevan. “Namely, to learn to 
live under the kind of rules that will allow us to nullify new [coronavirus] 
cases or reduce them to a minimum.”
“Dear compatriots, I want to again remind you that there is a coronavirus 
pandemic in Armenia and the most effective means of fighting that pandemic is to 
wear masks, maintain social distancing and periodically disinfect hands,” he 
said.
Armenia has had one of the highest coronavirus infection rates in the world, 
with a total of 30,346 cases confirmed in the country of about 3 million so far. 
According to the Ministry of Health, 526 people tested positive for the virus on 
Wednesday.
The ministry also reported on Thursday morning the deaths of 20 more people 
infected with COVID-19. It said COVID-19 was the primary cause of 14 of those 
deaths.
The official death toll thus rose to 535. The figure does not include 170 other 
infected people who the ministry says have died from other, pre-existing 
conditions.
Armenia -- A healthcare worker wearing protective gear takes notes at the Surb 
Grigor Lusavorich Medical Center, Yerevan, June 5, 2020.
“The situation remains stable but severe,” Health Minister Arsen Torosian said 
at the cabinet meeting. “That is, there is no negative trend but there is no 
substantial positive trend either.”
Torosian also announced that the health authorities are planning to set up 
dozens of more intensive care beds at Armenian hospitals treating COVID-19 
patients. They already helped to boost hospital capacity last month in the face 
of a rising number of coronavirus-related hospitalizations.
Pashinian warned on Monday that the government will have to impose another 
nationwide lockdown if the hospitals are no longer able to cope with the 
continuing influx of patients. The prime minister did not mention such a 
possibility on Thursday. He spoke instead of a possible “further toughening” of 
fines and other sanctions against people refusing to wear masks.
“We should manage to ensure compliance with the anti-epidemic rules, including 
through the strictest administrative measures,” he said.
Opposition leaders and other critics of Pashinian’s government increasingly 
criticize its handling of the coronavirus crisis.
The two opposition parties represented in the Armenian parliament initiated last 
week the formation of an ad hoc parliamentary commission tasked with 
investigating the government’s coronavirus response. Torosian insisted 
afterwards that the government has done a good job dealing with the pandemic.
European Court Rejects Injunction Sought By Ousted Armenian Judges
        • Gayane Saribekian
        • Nane Sahakian
France -- The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) in Strasbourg, February 7, 
2019.
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) has refused to issue an “interim” 
injunction that would freeze the implementation of constitutional changes 
calling for the dismissal of the chairman and three other members of Armenia’s 
Constitutional Court.
The changes passed by the Armenian parliament late last month stipulate that 
Hrayr Tovmasian must resign as the court’s chairman remain but remain one of its 
nine judges. They also mandate the replacement of three other judges who had 
taken the bench in the 1990s.
Tovmasian and the three ousted judges -- Alvina Gyulumian, Felix Tokhian and 
Hrant Nazarian -- have refused to step down, saying that the changes were 
enacted in breach of Armenia’s constitution and laws. In an appeal to the ECHR 
filed on June 26, they asked the Strasbourg-based court to order the Armenian 
authorities to refrain from replacing them pending further hearings on the case.
In a statement issued late on Wednesday, the ECHR said it has rejected the 
“interim measure” requested by the plaintiffs because it saw no “risk of serious 
and irreparable harm” to them.
“Although the applicants’ request for an interim measure has been found to be 
out of scope, it is still open to them to lodge an application and to pursue 
their complaints before the Court,” read the statement. “When required, the 
Court may decide to give priority to certain applications.”
Siranuysh Sahakian, a lawyer representing the ousted judges, downplayed the 
ECHR’s decision on Thursday, saying that the Strasbourg court is continuing to 
examine the appeal. She said the ECHR has given the plaintiffs and the Armenian 
government until August 28 to present it with more arguments in support of their 
positions.
Alen Simonian, a deputy parliament speaker and close associate of Prime Minister 
Nikol Pashinian, hailed the ECHR’s decision. He said it vindicated Armenia’s 
ruling political team and dealt a blow to attempts to “delegitimize” changes in 
the Constitutional Court’s composition.
“I repeat that the process is absolutely lawful and the problem [addressed by 
it] is acknowledged by all of our partners,” he said.
Simonian also accused the plaintiffs of pursuing a hidden political agenda. 
“They are engaged in a political process and are clinging to their posts,” he 
said.
A senior lawmaker representing the opposition Bright Armenia Party (BHK) 
insisted, meanwhile, that the parliament’s pro-government majority amended the 
Armenian constitution illegally. “These constitutional changes are the result of 
an unlawful process,” said Taron Simonian.
Prosperous Armenia (BHK), the other opposition party represented in the National 
Assembly, is even more critical of the changes, having denounced them as a 
“constitutional coup.”
Tovmasian and six other Constitutional Court justices have been under strong 
government pressure to step down over the past year. Pashinian has accused them 
of maintaining close ties to Armenia’s former government and impeding his 
judicial reforms.
Tovmasian and opposition figures have dismissed Pashinian’s claims and in turn 
accused the prime minister of seeking to take control of the country’s highest 
court.
According to the ECHR statement, Tovmasian, Gyulumian, Tokhian and Nazarian 
claimed in their appeal that the controversial amendments to the Armenian 
constitution followed their and their colleagues’ harassment by the current 
authorities in Yerevan. They said the “long process of harassment” intensified 
after the Constitutional Court agreed in June 2018 to rule on an appeal filed by 
Robert Kocharian, a former Armenian president prosecuted on coup and corruption 
charges rejected by him as politically motivated.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
 

                                        Friday, 
Armenia To Again Extend Coronavirus State Of Emergency
        • Astghik Bedevian
Armenia -- A masked police officer patrols streets of Yerevan, .
The Armenia government said on Friday it will likely extend a state of emergency 
by yet another month due to the continuing coronavirus crisis in the country.
“In all likelihood, the decision to extend the state of emergency by another 
month will be made public on Monday,” Mane Gevorgian, the spokeswoman for Prime 
Minister Nikol Pashinian, told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.
The government declared a one-month state of emergency on March 16 following the 
first outbreaks of the coronavirus registered in Armenia. It imposed a 
nationwide lockdown later in March.
The government began easing lockdown restrictions in mid-April. But it has 
extended emergency rule on a monthly basis since then, citing the rapidly 
growing number of new coronavirus cases.
Pashinian said earlier this week that the government has no choice but to resort 
to another extension due to the continuing spread of the deadly disease. He said 
it needs special powers to continue to make people wear mandatory face masks in 
public areas and to enforce other anti-epidemic rules.
Armenia has one of the highest coronavirus infection rates in the world, with a 
total of 30,903 cases confirmed in the country of about 3 million so far. 
According to the Armenian Ministry of Health, 557 people tested positive for the 
virus on Thursday.
Armenia -- A healthcare worker clad in protective gear looks after COVID-19 
patients at the Surb Grigor Lusavorich Medical Center, Yerevan, June 5, 2020.
The ministry also reported on Friday morning the deaths of 18 more people 
infected with COVID-19. It said COVID-19 was the primary cause of 11 of those 
deaths.
The official death toll thus rose to 546. The figure does not include 177 other 
infected people who the ministry says have died from other, pre-existing 
conditions.
Under Armenian law, the National Assembly has to meet for an emergency session 
immediately after the declaration or extension of emergency rule.
Ani Samsonian, a parliament deputy from the opposition Bright Armenia Party 
(LHK), said she and her colleagues will attend the upcoming session to question 
the government’s “very ineffective” strategy of dealing with the COVID-19 
pandemic.
“The number of new infections is not falling while the [number of] deaths is 
already very troubling,” Samsonian told RFE/RL’s Armenian service.
Arusyak Julhakian, a lawmaker representing Pashinian’s My Step bloc, dismissed 
the criticism. She argued, in particular, that Armenia’s coronavirus mortality 
rate is low by Western standards.
“If we speak of ineptness, then I think Ms. Samsonian should blame the entire 
world and say that the entire world has been inept and failed so far to defeat 
the pandemic,” said Julhakian.
Samsonian further suggested that the authorities will again extend the state of 
emergency also because they want to keep up the existing ban on street 
demonstrations. They are afraid of anti-government protests, she claimed.
“It’s not that thousands of people would take to the streets if there was no 
state of emergency,” countered Julhakian. “Our only fear is that if people 
gather in large numbers they will get infected.”
Tsarukian Again Criticizes Armenian Government
        • Naira Nalbandian
Armenia -- Gagik Tsarukian, the leader of the opposition Prosperous Armenia 
Party, arrives at the parliament to give a speech ahead of a vote that stripped 
him of immunity from prosecution, Yerevan, June 16, 2020.
Gagik Tsarukian, the leader of the main opposition Prosperous Armenia Party 
(BHK), on Friday again accused Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s government of 
mishandling the coronavirus crisis and its socioeconomic consequences.
But Tsarukian stopped short of explicitly demanding the government’s resignation 
this time around, saying more vaguely instead that “inept officials must be 
replaced by competent ones.”
“The authorities are said to be afraid of Tsarukian and this is why they 
launched a campaign against him,” he said in a lengthy statement. “They should 
not be afraid of Tsarukian. They should be afraid of hundreds of thousands of 
people left without work and income.”
Tsarukian, who is also a wealthy businessman, attacked the government and 
demanded its resignation at a June 5 meeting with senior BHK members. “We are 
losing the country,” he declared in a speech strongly condemned by Pashinian and 
the ruling My Step bloc.
Ten days later, Tsarukian was stripped of its parliamentary immunity from 
prosecution and indicted on vote buying charges rejected by him as politically 
motivated. He claims that Pashinian ordered the criminal proceedings in response 
to his speech.
The BHK leader said on Friday that the speech as a “wakeup call” to the 
government.
“I have reason to suspect that the authorities do not realize the real scale of 
problems,” he wrote. “They don’t realize that we will soon have 200,000-300,000 
new unemployed people, that tens of thousands of business are shutting down … 
that if we don’t rescue them today it will not be possible to revive them 
tomorrow.”
Tsarukian described Armenia’s coronavirus crisis as a “disaster” and accused the 
government of wasting public funds meant to shore up businesses affected by the 
pandemic. In these circumstances, the government should “get serious” and 
“listen to advice and proposals from others,” said the tycoon who was infected 
with COVID-19 last week and has not yet recovered from it.
While claiming that the current government has prevented him from creating 
thousands of new jobs, Tsarukian pledged to come up soon with “large-scale 
investment projects” that will mitigate the economic fallout from the pandemic.
He said he will also strive to improve Armenia’s relations with Russia because 
he believes they are vital for his country’s national security and economic 
development. “Why would Russia’s big business … come to Armenia if our relations 
with Russia are tense?” he added.
BHK representatives did not clarify whether the indicted tycoon’s latest 
statement means that the Pashinian administration’s resignation is no longer on 
their party’s agenda.
For her part, Pashinian’s spokeswoman, Mane Gevorgian, declined to comment on 
the statement.
Tsarukian-Owned Casino Faces Closure
        • Naira Bulghadarian
Armenia -- The Shangri La casino outside Yerevan.
A government body has revoked the operating license of a company managing 
Armenia’s largest casino owned by embattled businessman and opposition leader 
Gagik Tsarukian.
In its decision posted on a government website late on Thursday, a Ministry of 
Finance commission regulating gambling activities in the country said the Onira 
Club company failed to make in 2018 a mandatory payment to the state stemming 
from the license. The commission also accused it of violating an Armenian law on 
gambling.
The decision suggests that the Shangri La casino run by Onira will be shut down 
at least temporarily. The company, which is also part of Tsarukian’s Multi Group 
conglomerate, did not immediately react to it.
Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) accused Onira and Shangri La of 
large-scale fraud hours after searching Tsarukian’s villa as part of a separate 
criminal investigation on June 14. The NSS claimed that the financial 
irregularities cost the state more than 29 billion drams ($60 million) in damage.
Onira strongly denied the allegations in a statement issued on June 15. It also 
insisted that Tsarukian, who leads the main opposition Prosperous Armenia Party 
(BHK), was never directly involved in its day-to-day activities and cannot be 
held responsible for them.
Also on June 15, the Armenian parliament controlled by Prime Minister Nikol 
Pashinian’s My Step bloc voted to allow the NSS to arrest and prosecute 
Tsarukian on charges of buying votes during parliamentary elections held in 2017.
Tsarukian and his party strongly deny the accusations. They claim that Pashinian 
ordered the NSS to “fabricate” them in response to the BHK leader’s June 5 calls 
for the Armenian government’s resignation. The prime minister and his allies 
deny this.
A district court in Yerevan refused to sanction Tsarukian’s pre-trial arrest on 
June 21. The Court of Appeals overturned the verdict earlier this week. But it 
stopped short of allowing investigators to take the tycoon into custody, 
ordering the lower court instead to hold new hearings on the arrest warrant.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
Copyright (c) 2020 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc.
1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.