Category: 2020

Azerbaijan warns of risks to Caspian energy exports from conflict with Armenia

Ani Kharatian
Reuters
 
 
 
Margarita Antidze
 
 
BAKU (Reuters) – Azerbaijan warned on Saturday about security risks to the oil and gas it supplies to European markets due to the outbreak of hostilities at its border with Armenia.
 
FILE PHOTO: The logo of SOCAR is seen on a filling station in Bern, Switzerland May 10, 2016. REUTERS/Ruben Sprich/File Photo
 
Elshad Nassirov, vice president of Azeri state energy company SOCAR, said on a conference call some of the energy infrastructure involved in shipping Caspian oil and gas to world markets is located in the vicinity of the current military operations.
 
Fifteen servicemen from Azerbaijan and Armenia and one Azeri civilian have died since Sunday in clashes between the two countries, who fought a war in the 1990s over Azerbaijan’s breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
 
Nassirov told the call that if they looked at a map they would see that clashes had taken place near some of its infrastructure. He said the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline and some other facilities were located not far from the territory where clashes had taken place.
 
Nassirov also referred to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, the last stretch of the Southern Gas Corridor which also includes two other pipelines running via Georgia and Turkey – important because its completion means the whole corridor will be operational, reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies.
 
“The pipeline will be ready and operational in time in October-November this year,” he said.
 
Armenia on Saturday also warned about security risks to the region coming from Azerbaijan after Baku said on Thursday it might strike the Metsamor nuclear power plant.
 
“This is a statement that should be unequivocally considered a crime against humanity … it should be given an appropriate international response and probe,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.
 
Speaking on the conference call organised by U.S.-based think-tank the Caspian Policy Center, details of which were published on the group’s website, Nassirov called on the West to help protect its energy exports.
 
“I would use this opportunity to invite our colleagues in Washington and elsewhere to think about how fragile … this region is and to think how to provide … military and physical security to the corridor, which is providing energy security to Europe,” Nassirov said.
 
 
 
 

Karabakh President visits country’s highest fighting position, carries out combat duty all night

Edgar Tavakalian
News.am, Armenia
Karabakh President visits country’s highest fighting position, carries out combat duty all night Karabakh President visits country’s highest fighting position, carries out combat duty all night

10:38, 19.07.2020

Spokesperson of the President of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Vahram Poghosyan posted the following on his Facebook page:

President Arayik Haroutyunyan on Saturday visited the 3,274-meter high Mount Gomshasar, the highest fighting position of Artsakh (and perhaps the world).

The head of state carried out combat duty with the border guards all night and personally followed the operative situation in that sector of the border.

The President returned from the border minutes ago. The details of the visit will be provided soon. The night was peaceful in the direction of Mount Gomshasar and along the entire length of the Artsakh-Azerbaijan border. The Defense Army continues to be in full control of the situation on ground and in the air.

Glory to the victorious Armenian army!”

Rumblings of regional strife in Caucasus could make its way to Israel

Boris Nahapetian
Israel Hayom
By  Sean Savage , JNS and ILH Staff                   

One of the most unexpected, lesser-known and not often reported bilateral relationships is the ties between Israel and Azerbaijan. While both countries are small, Israel is constantly garnering global headlines and attention for better or worse. The same cannot be said for Azerbaijan, which generally stays out of the news despite its strategic importance.

However, an ongoing escalation in violence between Azerbaijan and its neighbor Armenia is threatening to spill over into an all-out conflict that could draw in several regional powers, such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, and maybe even Israel.

Azerbaijani Ambassador to the United States Elin Suleymanov said that the international community is ignoring Armenia’s aggression against his country, which is a close ally of the Jewish state.

“Israel is clearly disproportionately targeted for criticism while Armenia is doing things much worse,” said Suleymanov, referring to Armenia’s “ethnic cleansing” of some 1 million Azerbaijanis in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh that is occupied by Armenia.

“What bothers us very much is that there is a clear double standard around the world,” he said. “People so actively criticize all over occupations, but when it comes to Armenia and Azerbaijan, people become very philosophical. There is no unequivocal condemnation of an illegal occupation, which shows a clear indication of bias.”

In recent days, the long-simmering conflict between the two countries has erupted with some fearing the escalation could spiral into a war between the neighbors. Fighting broke out last weekend on the border between Tavush in northeastern Armenia and the Tovuz district in Azerbaijan. At least 11 Azerbaijani soldiers and one civilian have been killed, according to the country, while Armenia reported that four of its soldiers have died.

“Unfortunately, the Armenia side decided to launch a cross border attack against Azerbaijan itself. We don’t know exactly the motivation for it. One can only guess,” said the ambassador

Nevertheless, Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of initiating the hostilities and accused Azerbaijan of a buildup of military forces in the region over the past months, including conducting training exercises.

According to a statement from the Armenian National Committee of America, “Azerbaijan has launched a military offensive against Armenia starting on July 12, deploying tanks, heavy artillery, and drones against civilian and military targets alike.”

While the exact cause of the recent escalation remains unclear, the fact that it occurred not in Nagorno-Karabakh, but along the internationally recognized boundaries between the two countries raises concern. At the same time, that area is also close to several strategic oil pipelines running from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, which also supply some 40% of Israel’s oil.

Azerbaijan is one of the largest purchasers of arms from the Jewish state. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the country had purchased $127 million in 2017. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in 2016 that Azerbaijan had bought $5 billion worth of weapons from Israel. So far, Israel has not weighed in on the flareup between the two countries.

“We are always in touch and engaging in dialogue with Israel, especially on defense,” said the ambassador. “They are major contributors to Azerbaijan’s security and defense production.”

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are former Soviet Republics, regaining their independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Since then they have been stuck in an unresolved conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but now controlled and occupied by ethnic Armenians.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called for calm, saying America was “deeply concerned” by the violence and urged an “immediate de-escalation.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has also urged restraint and a resumption of peace talks, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country would defend Azerbaijan.

Situated in the southern Caucasus Mountain region, Azerbaijan is the only country that borders both Iran and Russia, making it strategically important to regional powers. A Turkic people who are Shi’ite Muslim, Azerbaijanis are also in the singular position of sharing religious and ethnic ties with both the region’s two other major powers: Turkey and Iran. In fact, it is estimated that more Azeris live in Iran than in Azerbaijani itself.

Due to its geostrategic importance, Azerbaijan seeks to maintain friendly relations with its neighbors and even countries farther away.

“Azerbaijan is a friend of Israel and the Jewish people,” affirmed Suleymanov. “We have had the Jewish community in our country for 2,500 plus years. Jewish people are part in parcel of the Azerbaijani mosaic.”

Today, an estimated 30,000 Jews live in the country of 10 million.

In March, Azerbaijan’s finance minister, Samir Sharifov, became the first country with a Shi’ite majority to have a cabinet-level minister give a speech at the annual AIPAC Policy Conference.

At the same time, Israel has also sought to develop warmer ties with Armenia, one of the world’s oldest Christian countries. Armenia recently announced the opening of its embassy in Tel Aviv.

Relations between Israel, Azerbaijan, and Armenia are also complicated by Iran.

Due to its border with Iran and the fact that many Azeris reside there, Azerbaijan maintains ties with the regime, despite Iran also having warm ties with Armenia.

Similarly, by having close defense ties with Israel, Azerbaijan has placed itself on both sides of the conflict between Jerusalem and Tehran. “We maintain our relationship bilaterally with both countries; it’s not dependent on each other,” explained the ambassador. “We always openly have a strong partnership with Israel. It is not directed against anybody. It is in support of each other. Our relationship with Iran is not against anybody either.”

With thousands of Azerbaijanis taking to the streets of the country’s capital of Baku on Wednesday demanding the government to mobilize its troops to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, despite restrictions related to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, it remains unclear if the country is headed for war in the near future.

“On this day when Azerbaijan is attacked and does not get the same coverage as other cases around the world, what I would urge to our friends in Israel and the Jewish community is to make our friendship stronger to reach out to Azerbaijan and to tell the world the story of our successful partnership,” said Suleymanov. “They should know they have a friend in the south Caucasus.”

 Reprinted with permission from JNS.org


Lithuanian Foreign minister to Armenia and Azerbaijan: escalation benefits neither side

Jane Topchian
DELFI. Lithuania
Foreign minister to Armenia and Azerbaijan: escalation benefits neither side
                                                    BNS Sunday, July 19, 2020
Foreign minister to Armenia and Azerbaijan: escalation benefits neither side Link copied aA Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius on Friday spoke by phone with his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts amid continuing clashes on the border between the two South Caucasus countries

 

“The renewed armed conflict between the two Eastern Partnership countries poses a serious threat to security in the region,” Linkevicius said in a press release.
“Neither side needs confrontation. What is the most important now is to bring the situation under control decisively, make a strategic pause, cease fire and refrain from any move that could lead to a further escalation,” he said.
The Lithuanian minister called on the countries to make full use of available channels of bilateral communication and underlined the need for a stronger involvement by the OSCE Minsk Group, according to the ministry.
Linkevicius also discussed the situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border during his phone conversation with Turkey’s foreign minister.

Azerbaijan-Armenia fighting sparks fear of oil and gas disruption

Khoyetsian Rose
Washington Times
 
 
 
 
By Guy Taylor – The Washington Times – Updated: 4:22 p.m. on Sunday,
 
Azerbaijani officials warned over the weekend that an escalating military clash between with rival neighbor Armenia could disrupt oil and gas flows from the Caucasus region to Western European markets.
 
Deadly fighting that broke out last week near the contested enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has shown little sign of being resolved quickly, setting nerves on edge across the region and beyond over the potential for widening violence.
 
The two sides fought a war in the 1990s over the enclave, a breakaway region of Azerbaijan. The latest violence represents the worst flareup in years over the frozen conflict, with at least 20 people killed last week in skirmishes that featured the use of heavy artillery and drones between Azerbaijani and Armenian forces.
  
The Trump administration is calling for calm. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters last week that the U.S. is “deeply concerned” about the violence. “We urge the sides to de-escalate immediately and re-establish a meaningful dialogue,” he said.
 
Concerns are also ratcheted up in Europe, since Elshad Nassirov, the vice president of the Azeri state energy company SOCAR, warned over the weekend that energy infrastructure involved in shipping Caspian oil and gas to world markets is located near the fighting.
  
According to Reuters, Mr. Nassirov said the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline and some other facilities were located not far from the territory where last week’s clashes took place.
 
Speaking on a conference call, Mr. Nassirov also referred to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline, the last stretch of the so-called Southern Gas Corridor which also includes two other pipelines running via Georgia and Turkey. Reuters described the pipeline as important because its completion means the whole corridor will be operational, reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies.
 
  
 

Pope Francis Calls for Peaceful Resolution to Clashes Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Bedik Zaminian
National Catholic Reporter
At least 16 people have died in fighting at the border of the two Caucasus countries in the past week.
Hannah Brockhaus/CNA.

VATICAN CITY — Pope Francis Sunday said he is praying for the families of victims of clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and hopes differences can be resolved peacefully.

“I am following with concern the recovery in recent days of armed tensions in the Caucasus region, between Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the pope said after leading the Angelus prayer July 19.

“In particular, while I assure you of my prayers for the families of those who lost their lives during the clashes, I hope that, with the commitment of the international community and through dialogue and the goodwill of the parties, a lasting peaceful solution can be reached, which has at heart the good of those beloved populations,” he continued.

At least 16 people have died in fighting at the border of the two Caucasus countries in the past week. The clashes were followed by protests in Azerbaijan, the BBC reports.

The fighting is due to conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, which is recognized internationally as belonging to Azerbaijan but is controlled by ethnic Armenians. The dispute over the territory has been ongoing since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Speaking from a window overlooking St. Peter’s Square, Francis also spoke about the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, noting that it “shows no signs of stopping.”

“I wish to assure my closeness to those who are facing the disease and its economic and social consequences,” he stated, adding that he is especially thinking of those people whose suffering is “aggravated by situations of conflict.”

Pointing to the recent UN Security Council resolution, the pope renewed his call “for a global and immediate ceasefire, which allows the peace and security indispensable to providing the necessary humanitarian assistance.”

In his address before the Angelus, Pope Francis reflected on the first parable in the day’s Gospel reading

In the parable of the good seed and the weeds “Jesus makes us know the patience of God, opening our hearts to hope,” Pope Francis said.

In the parable, weeds sown by an enemy grow up among the wheat in a man’s field. The servants ask if they should pull up the weeds, but the master says to wait, because if they do, they would risk also pulling out the wheat.

The master tells the servants “we must wait for the moment of the harvest: only then will they be separated and the weeds will be burned,” the pope recounted.
 
The pope explained that “the good seed and the weeds represent not the good and the bad in the abstract, but we human beings, who can follow God or the devil.””

God, like the owner of the field, plants only good seeds. And he acts openly, in the light of the sun, Pope Francis continued.

Instead, the enemy, who represents the devil, “takes advantage of the darkness of the night and works out of envy, out of hostility, to ruin everything,” the pope said. “His intent is to hinder the work of salvation, to ensure that the Kingdom of God is hindered by unfair operators, scandal sowers.”

According to Pope Francis, some people, like the servants in the parable, want to quickly eliminate evil and wicked people from the world.

But the master is wiser and has a longer view:, and people “must know how to wait, because the enduring of persecutions and hostilities is part of the Christian vocation,” the pope stated.

“Evil, of course, must be rejected, but the wicked are people with whom one must use patience,” he emphasized. This does not mean having “hypocritical tolerance,” but “justice softened by mercy.”

“If Jesus came to seek sinners rather than the righteous, to heal the sick even before the healthy, the action of us his disciples must also be addressed not to suppress the wicked, but to save them,” he stated.

“Those who seek out the limits and defects of others do not cooperate well with God, but rather those who know how to recognize the good that grows silently in the field of the Church and of history, cultivating it until maturation.”

“And then it will be God, and only He, to reward the good and punish the wicked,” the pope said.

Vardavar 2020: What is the Vartavar water festival? How is it celebrated in Armenia?

Arpi Talalian
Time Bulletin
 Rob Harris  Posted on



Albeit now a Christian tradition, celebrating the transfiguration of Jesus Christ (the Feast of the Transfiguration), Vardavar’s history goes back to pagan times.

The antiquated festival is traditionally connected with the goddess Astghik, who was the goddess of water, beauty, love, and fertility. Roses meant the goddess Astghik. The festivities related to this religious observance of Astghik were named “Vartavar” because Armenians offered her roses as a festival (vart signifies “rose” in Armenian and var signify “rise”), this is the reason it was praised in the harvest time.

Afterward, with the adoption of Christianity, the water festival was coordinated to the day of the Transfiguration of Jesus Christ, and the antiquated tradition of pouring water started to represent the purification from sins and healing.

Vardavar water festival is praised on the 14th Sunday after Easter, generally speaking, it falls in July, that is, on the hottest days of summer. In 2020, the water festival will be held on July 19th. Vardavar is celebrated wherever in Armenia, in enormous urban areas, in regions, and even in small villages and towns.

The biggest festivals happen in the capital of the nation, Yerevan. Here many individuals accumulate in the “epicenter” of universal fun – Swan Lake, situated in the heart of the city, and in any event, watering machines and firefighting trucks partake in the “water procedures”.



During the day of Vardavar, individuals from a wide array of ages are permitted to splash strangers with water. It isn’t unexpected to see individuals pouring buckets of water from galleries on clueless individuals strolling beneath them. The celebration is well known among kids as it is one day where they can pull off pulling tricks. It is additionally a method for reward on the normally hot and dry summer days of July or late June.

Federation of Youth Clubs of Armenia (FYCA) every year organizes the “Vardavar International Festival” which is an educational, cognitive, cultural celebration. Every year it happens in the medieval cloister of Geghard and old pagan temple of Garni. The festival plans to introduce Armenian national and traditional culture.

Notwithstanding the festivals, the traditional ceremony of sprinkling water on one another, and the blessings of the youth, the Armenian folk songs are likewise included and performed by the Nairyan Vocal Ensamble. The Vardavar holiday theme structures describe the traditions and handmade works of various regions of Armenia.

The main traditions of Vardavar are very comparative and celebrated in various areas of Armenia. The ceremony devoted to the Transfiguration of Jesus Christ is held in churches all through Yerevan and the nation toward the beginning of the day, likewise, the consecration of water and the blessing of fruits are held on this day (apple is one of the symbols of the holiday).

There is a custom to release pigeons in certain regions, which represents another feature of the “holiday of water” – the association with the finish of the worldwide flood, which additionally looks like a general splashing. Special theater performances, representing national games, songs, dances, as well as the rich cultural legacy of pre-Christian Armenia, are organized on Vardavar day in Yerevan and in certain areas.



https://www.timebulletin.com/vardavar-2020-what-is-the-vartavar-water-festival-how-is-it-celebrated-in-armenia/?fbclid=IwAR1L7A_osydScPvFDq5jZMbOcotYEx6FnCwuYRq9AKuN05rhEJnnEG8dkkI

China-Eurasia Council condemns aggression of Azerbaijan

Hovik Karapetian
Modern Diplomacy
 
 
 
 
By Newsroom
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research strongly condemns Azerbaijani aggression which Baku started on July 12, 2020.  Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense is a threat for the entire World as it is speaking about its aims to strike Metsamor Nuclear Plant, which is located in Armenia. Baku must understand that this is a crime against humanity, and it is equal to nuclear strike.The destruction of Metsamor Nuclear plant will be a disaster not only for Armenia, but also for Iran, Georgia and Azerbaijan, it will harm World’s environment and stand a real problem for several generations of the World. It is worth mentioning, that this time Baku attacked the Northern borders of Armenia, which are sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia according to International law. Azerbaijan violated the principle of territorial integrity of a sovereign state, which is one of the important pillars of International law.
 
China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research condemns Azerbaijan for using force against civilian population of Armenia and calls for peaceful negotiations. Baku must show solidarity and join global ceasefire initiated by the UN secretary general Antonio Guterres and must not try to escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 in Azerbaijan. We call official Baku to take care of Azerbaijani people in the hard times of Coronavirus and not send its soldiers to real death.  Being multinational Council, for us It’s terrible to hear about lossfrom both sides and we express our sincere condolences. Hopefully peace will come to South Caucasus, which is an important crossroad in Eurasian mainland and it can stand a very important link for Belt and Road Initiative, if all problems solved in a peaceful way.
 
 
 
 
 
 

ANN/Armenian News Week in Review – 07/19/2020

Emil Lazarian

Armenian News Network / Armenian News

Armenian News: Week in Review


ANN/Armenian News

Table of Contents

Introduction

Listen to us on

Guests This Week

Your Hosts

Topics for This Week

Clashes on the Tavush border

Overview

Analysis of the current situation, including tactical issues

Sources

Topic 2: The Threat on the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant

Overview

Analysis of the current situation, including tactical issues

Sources

Ongoing Discuss: The State of Armenian Media

Overview

Headlines in the News

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Wrap-up

 

 

This Week in Review we discuss the military aggression by Azerbaijan against Armenia that started on Sunday, July 12 with Emil Sanamyan, Alen Zamanyan and Asbed Kotchikian.

 

Later in the podcast, Asbed Kotchikian talks with Dr. Areg Danagulian about the dangers of Azerbaijan’s threat to strike Armenia’s Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) with missiles.

 

            

●          Alen Zamanyan

●          Emil Sanamyan

●          Asbed Kotchikian

●          Areg Danagoulian (special guest)

 

●          Hovik Manucharyan

●          Asbed Bedrossian

 

 

Around noon on Sunday, July 12, Azerbaijani forces attempted to infiltrate the Armenian border in the Tavush region of Armenia. Upon initial shots by Armenian armed forces, Azerbaijani soldiers abandoned their vehicle and retreated, only to attack the Armenian army border post again and be repulsed after suffering nearly half a dozen deaths.

 

Later on Sunday evening Azerbaijan started intensive shelling along the Armenian border, and by Monday morning there were reports of drone attacks, shelling, and sniper fire. Azerbaijan also went on a PR and Cyber offensive. Armenian government sites were hacked, and both Azerbaijan and Turkey were trying to pin responsibility for the fighting on Armenia.

 

The attack was preceded by public threats to resume military action. As recently as the first week of July, Ilham Aliyev complained about the OSCE Minsk Group mediators and firmly told reporters that for Azerbaijan the military option was on the table. Since then the relative calm along the Armenian-Azerbaijan state border and the Azerbaijan-Artsakh line of contact (LoC) has degraded, culminating in the clashes of July 12th.

 

By July 14 Azeri losses had accumulated to over a dozen, including many high ranking officers at the Major-General, Colonel and Major rank levels. Armenia suffered military and civilian casualties as well, including a destroyed kindergarten. During intensive fighting, Tavush residents were asked to take cover in bomb shelters for days.

 

Now let’s do a deep-dive analysis with our well-informed guests.

 

●           Emil Sanamyan wrote an article about these events for the USC Institute of Armenian Studies the day after fighting broke out. What are your thoughts about these continuing hostilities, is this just another routine flare-up, or are there more serious reasons to be worried here? Why the escalation now and why on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border (as opposed to the line of contact in Artsakh)?

●      Azerbaijan appears to have been ready with its massive PR machine because within a day after the hostilities began Azeri press was full of one-sided statements by a large number of international Islamic organizations, Islamic countries and various other alliances such as the GUAM. Meanwhile, most other organizations and countries put out balanced statements calling for cessation of hostilities by both parties and a return to peace and negotiations.

●      What are the dynamics driving the domestic political scene in Baku? Ilham Aliyev just fired his long-time foreign minister Elmar Mammadyarov for “ineffective negotiations” over Karabakh. There was a crowd estimated at 30,000 demonstrating in Baku demanding an end to negotiations and quarantine, and demanding war on Armenia. What is going on in Baku?

●      Who is Azerbaijan’s new Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov? What do we know about him?

●      Defense Minister David Tonoyan is well known for his “Active Defense Doctrine” which promotes a pre-emptive strike defense and departs from classic trench defenses to a more “deterrence through punishment” philosophy. Are we seeing this doctrine at play during these events?

●      There was troubling one-sided language from Turkey, and also GUAM, which includes Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova. Azerbaijan currently holds the chairmanship of GUAM and likely penned the one-sided statement in the name of GUAM. More balanced statements have followed from individual GUAM countries. Meanwhile, only “balanced statements” have come from the international community.

○      The reaction from Turkey was quick and unprecedented in terms of its hostility. At the level of president, defense minister, and foreign minister we heard threats that “Armenia wouldn’t get away with this,” Cavusoglu stated that he’s ready to die for Azerbaijan. To what do we attribute this belligerent rhetoric?

○      The reaction from GUAM (an alliance between Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) was also quick. GUAM squarely sided with Azerbaijan, condemning Armenia for the attacks.

○      The reaction from other international partners were also quite equivocal. The OSCE Minsk Group, US, EU, Iran, and others all strove to provide a “balanced” response, urging both sides to de-escalate.

○      The reactions from the CSTO, and what can be expected from the CSTO. Why are the relationships with other CSTO members “not great”?

●           Where do we go from here? What do we see happening next?

●      Defense minister’s interview

○      “Next time we start, we must…”

●      Aliyev’s interview criticizing Minsk group (July 7)

○      “Their main point is that the problem cannot be solved militarily,” he said. “Who said that? We expect more serious, clear and targeted statements from the mediators.” –Aliyev

●      Armenia’s MOD spox announcement

○      “us for unclear because of” ???

●      Armenian government extraordinary session

○      DM also mentions “unclear because of”

●      The EVN Reports on this event:

○      Fighting Erupts on Armenian-Azerbbaijani State Border – 7/13/2020

○      Updates from the Armenian-Azerbaijan State Border – 7/14/2020

●      Armenian, Azerbaijani Forces Tussle for High Ground on Tavush Border

●      Much more on Armenian News on Facebook.

 

Asbed Kotchikian talks with Areg Danagoulian

 

In this segment Asbed Kotchikian discusses a wide variety of aspects of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant (ANPP) at Metsamor with Areg Danagulian. The ANPP’s significance to Armenia’s economy, energy security, and independence cannot be overstated. The power plant was shut down in 1989 following the devastating earthquake in Spitak, and when it was brought back online in 1995 after being shut down since 1989 it served as a lifeline and helped fuel Armenia’s economic growth for the next two decades.

 

Dr. Danagulian is Associate Professor of Nuclear Science and Engineering at MIT. He is currently working on new, monochromatic methodologies for cargo screening as well as technologies for treaty verification via resonant phenomena and physical cryptography.

●      How safe (structurally, operationally and strategically) is the Metsamor NPP?

○      What are the possible implications of a missile strike on Metsamor NPP?

○      Should Armenia be shifting away from nuclear power in the future?

○      Are the concerns about safety of the ANPP valid?

○      How long can the ANPP still be in service?

○      How resistant is it to earthquakes which have been mentioned as a security concern?

○      Within the context of the recent conflagration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and the latter’s threats to launch a missile strike on Metsamor, how realistic is the threat?

■      How resistant is the ANPP to potential military-induced nuclear catastrophe?

■      Is there some sort of a safety mechanism or protocol that can minimize the damage in case such a catastrophe takes place?

■      If you were advising Armenia’s government, are there any precautionary measures that you’d recommend be taken to reduce or mitigate the risk of a military attack on Metsamor?

■      What is the worst-case scenario in terms of a missile strike on Metsamor?

●       How does nuclear fuel make its way to the ANPP? Doesn’t Armenia have Uranium resources of its own?

●           Looking into the future, given the landlocked status and potential geopolitical constraints, how realistic is it for Armenia to bolster its nuclear security?

 

●      Azerbaijan Threatens Missile Strike on Armenian Nuclear Power Plant

 

 

 

●      During the war in the Tavush region, quite a few news sources applied self-censorship while covering the frontline. On the other hand social media was full of speculative statements and even factually erroneous news which created more confusion among those who were looking for news.

●      On the Azerbaijani side, it seemed that they were ready and managed to roll out statements of support from some countries and international organizations.

●      As a policy, Armenian News publishes news from (pro)Azerbaijani sources to inform its audience on what the “other” side thinks and says.

●      Unfortunately the Armenian media landscape has difficulty breaking away from sensationalism and providing in depth analysis, to an extent that they usually publish FB posts by various individuals as news articles without any analysis.

 

There were many articles this week about Azerbaijan’s threat of a missile attack on the ANPP. In an article Forbes was rightfully cautious to write “alleged Armenian threat” about Azerbaijani claims that Armenia had first threatened to bomb the Mingechaur water reservoir in Azerbaijan, probably because they couldn’t verify it. Let’s clarify the chain of what was said, what was written, because we can see how misunderstandings can lead to dangerous places.

In a Factor TV interview on July 2, former Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutyunyan discusses (in minutes 12 & 13) that all of Azerbaijan is within reach of Armenian missile systems, and he EXPLICITLY QUOTES Russian general Lev Rokhlin (from a speech in front of the Russian Duma) (minute 12:37) “…and here I bring you the statement of Rokhlin, who during a presentation in the Duma said: if the Armenian side used the SCUD systems, and targeted the Mingechaur reservoir, then two thirds of Azerbaijan would be under water.”

Now unless Gen. Rokhlin made these statements posthumously, they were made before 1998, because he died in 1998.

However, the news and rumors were spun offline and on social media to lead to an official threat from Azerbaijan, we can see how unverified information can quickly get out of hand. Regardless of that, we go back to what Emil Sanamyan says in the podcast: there is no way to equate nuclear terror with blowing up a reservoir.

 

More on the state of the Armenian media in our future podcasts.


●           Azeri armed  forces shelled an Armenian army outpost in the northern Tavush  province during a failed attempt to seize it. Three Azerbaijani soldiers have died and 5 were injured. The Armenian army suffered no losses.

●           Skirmishes continued with Drones/UAV’s; Armenian forces had shot down many Azeri UAVs. Azeri deaths around 6-8. No Armenian losses.

●           Over a dozen  deaths on the Azeri side, including senior military personnel with the rank of Major-General, Colonel, Majors. The Armenian side also suffered losses but appears to have gained a strategic height that overlooks the Azeri Tovuz district.

●      13 Azeri drones were downed by Armenian forces since Sunday. The last UAV was an Israeli-made Elbit Hermes 900, Thunder-B recon drone, and Skystriker combat drones. The Elbit 900 is a very expensive, powerful drone and the first of its type to be downed.

●      Armenia’s SU-30SM fighter jets went on combat duty, protecting Armenia’s air space.

●      The U.S. House will Consider Measures Blocking Transfer of Defense Articles to Azerbaijan, a key vote set for Monday July 20.

●      Several members of the US Congress condemned Azerbaijan’s military aggression against Armenia.

●      “End the quarantine and start the war!” A crowd of pro-war Azerbaijani protesters estimated around 30,000 strong broke into parliament, demanding war with Armenia. Police intervened to break up the protest.

●      The operative situation on the border became relatively calm, tensions de-escalated later on Wednesday.

●      Azeri lobbies and propaganda were fully prepared for this war. Azerbaijan and Turkey immediately lined up a long list of condemnations of Armenia as the aggressor in this flare-up. [1] [2]

●      Aliyev trashed his FM Mamedyarov during a meeting of his cabinet. Mamedyarov failed to attend the meeting for unknown reasons, and Aliyev expressed anger at his inadequate performance and the fact that Mamedyarov had allegedly discussed cooperating with Armenia on combating the coronavirus pandemic

●      Turkish president Erdogan had a call with president Trump during which he slammed Armenia as the aggressor in the conflict this week. No word from Trump yet.

●      No meaningful reactions from major organizations: OSCE, the CSTO, NATO or the UN.

●      Balanced statements from Russia, Iran, Belarus, Latvia, the UK.

●      Armenia’s MFA declared the absolute inadmissibility of Turkey’s involvement in the settling of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The statement declared Turkey a threat to the security of Armenia and the Caucasus.

●      Gagik Tsarukyan does not have Coronavirus.

●      A fake bomb threat was called on the Blue Mosque in Yerevan.

●      A 30-year old Armenian Shepherd was reported missing to Armenian police and was later reported in custody by Azerbaijani police in Nakhichevan.

●      A new survey by the IRI claims 84 percent of Armenians have either a “very” (72 percent) or “somewhat” (12 percent) favorable opinion of the prime minister; a majority support the government’s management of COVID-19, with 48 percent “very” and 23 percent “somewhat” satisfied with the response; and when asked how state institutions have handled the pandemic, respondents expressed improved opinions of the police (65 percent), the Ministry of Health (64 percent) and the Prime Minister’s office (58 percent).

●      The WB, the EBRD and the EU approved nearly $40 million in financing for a 55MW Solar power plant in Armenia. Armenia currently generates 70% of its electricity from fossil fuels, and this plant will generate 128GW-hours of electricity annually, displacing the release of 40,000 tons of carbon.

●           Ilham Aliyev sacked his long-time foreign minister, Elmar Mammadyarov, after denouncing his poor performance in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. Mammadyarov was replaced by education minister Jeyhun Bayramov.

●           Clashes resume on Azerbaijan-Armenia border

●           State Senators Portantino, Borgeas Condemn Azerbaijan’s Attack on Armenia

●           US House will Vote on Jackie Speier’s Amendment Restoring Military Aid Parity to Yerevan and Baku

●           Clashes ease on Armenia-Azerbaijan border: No casualties reported on Armenian side 

●           Azerbaijan threatens to cause a ‘nuclear catastrophe’ by attacking the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, claiming Armenia has threatened its Mingechaur Reservoir. The claim is patently false.

 

Areas where we decided that need more exploration and discussion in the future:

●      Turkey today, its foreign policy in all directions. What are the drivers of its foreign policy, its perceived strategic goals?

●      The future of energy generation in energy in Armenia; renewable energy sources.

 

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CivilNet: In a Village 200 Yards From Azerbaijan

Liana Toganian
CIVILNET.AM

19:00

The kindergarten in Aygepar, a village in Tavush Province that borders Azerbaijan, was damaged by Azerbaijani shelling on June 16. 

CivilNet’s team is on the field and talks with Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan about the situation in the region and the challenges of daily life under constant shelling. Bishop Bagrat is the primate of the diocese of the Tavush region of the Armenian Apostolic Church.