Possible Scenarios
Scenario I:
If Turkey tries to involve its military in the war against Armenia in support of Azerbaijan, Armenia can ask for military help from its close ally Russia, especially as the 102nd Russian military base is deployed in Armenia. It could withstand a long-term regional war that could involve other powers and also threaten the peace and security of the entire world.
Scenario II:
If Azerbaijan tries to implement its threat to strike the Armenian nuclear plant located in Metsamor, it would instigate the beginning of a nuclear disaster that would have significantly negative impacts on Armenia and neighboring states. In fact, it would be similar to a nuclear war, and Armenia will have to strike back with its Iskander ballistic missiles, which will ruin Azerbaijani infrastructure.
Scenario III:
The international community decisively pushes both sides to commence negotiations and condemns any attempt to strike the nuclear plants of either side, stipulating that this kind of threat can be described as nuclear terrorism and as such will not be accepted. The UNSC adopts a resolution that will put an end to the military clashes and impose an arms embargo on both sides. Peacekeeping units are deployed to the borders of both sides as well as in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) until both sides find a way to resolve border disputes in a peaceful manner. A special mechanism must be invented and enforced through which any side that initiates military action will be punished by UNSC sanctions.
It is true that democratic states do not go to war against each other. The EU must continue its constructive role through which it is helping to implement the democratic transformation of the states of the South Caucasus, aided by the help of the two democratic states in the region.
It has also been very interesting to follow the protests that were taking place in the center of Baku on July 15. At first, thousands of protestors called for President Aliyev to continue a war against Armenia and not stop the military offensive started by Azerbaijan in the previous days, but when protestors started to speak about social and economic problems and issues related to the outbreak of Covid-19, police began to use force to diffuse the masses. In fact, this kind of protest could provide a good starting point for the transformation of the movement into a pro-democracy campaign, which could bring about changes in the country. As a result, if all countries in the region are democratic, it will be easier to solve ongoing problems without war or violent conflict.
Conclusion
All the above scenarios are possible if we take into consideration the fact that the current world order is changing and the South Caucasus have the potential to serve as a battlefield between Russia and Turkey, which are both competing to increase their influence in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Turkey might seek to escalate the situation in the region by challenging Russian positions and, as a result, forcing Russia to chose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason, perhaps it would not fight against Armenia in an open way, but it might still send weapons to Azerbaijan and relocate its troops under the Azerbaijani flag and uniform, as happened in the 1990s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
A new total war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the time of the Covid-19 outbreak would be a disaster for both nations, and here the question arises: do we have a responsible international community or not? If yes, it must immediately take following actions. First, there must be firm opposition and a concrete condemnation of threats to strike nuclear plants, which could lead to catastrophic consequences. Second, the international community must take into consideration the steps that are recommended in Scenario III of this article, which means preventing military conflict and deploying peacekeeping units in order to help build peace and security in the South Caucasus.
https://www.iipvienna.com/new-blog/2020/7/20/armenian-azerbaijani-border-clashes-risk-a-major-regional-war-or-nuclear-disaster-where-is-the-international-community?fbclid=IwAR165YNQ50q6SHkBsiCLEsK2UQhv2lc6xdT8ZzTnktSmXDUX6IKuZ6tyWZ4