Category: 2020

Asia Times
By Stephen Bryen
        
Moscow has unleashed its 'Belladonna' drone killer system in Armenia
to counter Azerbaijan's use of Turkish-made Bayraktar armed drones
The electronic warfare system is known as “Belladonna”, a poisonous
plant that gets its name from Renaissance women who used its extract
for tinctures to dilate the pupils of their eyes, ostensibly to make
them more attractive.
While Belladonna translates to “beautiful woman” in English, in
Russian it has a second meaning: it is the name of a Russian
electronic jamming system now credited with knocking out at least nine
Turkish Bayraktar armed drones used by Azerbaijan to target Armenia.
If true – and no one has denied it – the system is now operating
around the sensitive Russian military base at Gyumri in Armenia, far
from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict area.
In Russian, Belladonna is known as “Krasukha.” The Krasukha jamming
system was rushed to Armenia to counter the successful use of both
armed drones such as the Bayraktar and suicide drones like the
Israel-made loitering munition known as Harop.
The Turks have heavily advertised the success of Bayraktar in three
theaters – Syria, Libya and now in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Turkey and Azerbaijan have released numerous “kill videos” of the
drone blowing up tanks, armored vehicles and trucks – and killing many
soldiers in the process.
Bayraktar is a fairly conventional armed drone that is navigated to
the target area using GPS. The drone’s Wescam MX-15D multispectral
camera system is made in Canada while its BRP-Rotax engine that
generates about 100 horse-power is produced in Austria.
Canada has halted the sale of the Wescam camera system to Turkey
because of its use on Bayraktar drones in the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. But Canada has been silent about Rotax engine exports,
although the Austrian company is owned by Canada’s Bombardier
Recreational Products.
No doubt there are other Bayraktar parts that are made in Europe, the
United States and elsewhere.
[Photo:An official walks among objects which Armenia presented as
captured and downed Azeri drones during recent armed clashes on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in Yerevan, July 21, 2020. Photo:
AFP/Karen Minasyan]
The Krasukha is a broadband multifunctional jamming station
manufactured by KRET (“Concern Radio Electronic Technologies”), part
of the Rostec Group. Since 2014, the company has been under US
sanctions for its activities in Ukraine and in Crimea.
KRET consists of more than 70 member companies in electronics spread
out across Russia while KRET itself acts as a manufacturing group
holding company with about 50,000 employees.
Krakushka was designed primarily to protect areas in and around
Russia’s military bases where its powerful transmitter can blank out
airborne radars. The Russians, however, have also found Krakuska
useful in counteracting armed drones.
Krakushka was used successfully in defending the Hmeymim Air Base in
Syria that was attacked by armed, if not primitive, swarming drones.
An earlier strike by such drones had caused significant damage at the
base, destroying some aircraft, and alarmed Russia’s military about a
significant vulnerability at Hmeymim.
So much so, in fact, that Russia’s defense ministry brought back some
of the drones that crashed and complained bitterly about the spread of
drone technology in the Middle East.
The Russians might also have complained about China, which supplied
the engines, the cameras and the GPS receivers and radios in the
drones that were home-built by ISIS and others. But, of course, they
did not want to stir trouble with their Beijing ally. For the record,
the Russians said the swarming drones caused no damage.
The Russian press claims that at least nine Bayraktar drones were shot
down on or about October 19. Some photos of the drones that crashed
have been released by Armenia and have appeared in the Russian press,
principally at Avia.pro.
The photos show smashed up Bayraktar drones, but no sign they were hit
by ground fire. According to the press reports, the Krakushka jamming
system caused the crashes.
[Photo: This combination of pictures from October 1, 2020, shows (top)
a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone at Gecitkale military airbase near
Famagusta and (bottom) an Iranian-made Shahed-129 drone. Photos:
AFP/Birol Bebekand Atta Kenare]
The version of Krakushka being used in Armenia is the latest model
Krakushka-4. The system is truck-mounted, but is used primarily to
defend Russian bases. So far as is known, it is not being used by
Armenian forces, nor is it being deployed in the Nagorno-Karabakh
area.
Krakushka jams communications in the same way it blanks out radars; it
does not, however, control the jammed drones. It would appear that the
Bayraktar drone does not have a “return to home” capability if it
loses contact with its base station and if GPS signals are jammed.
Most drones with the capability to return to their home systems rely
on GPS to do so.
The Russians have made clear that the Turkish drones were shot down in
the airspace around the Gyumri military base, which in Armenia is near
the Turkish border and about 487 kilometers from the nearest major
Azerbaijani base at Ganja.
The reported communications range of the Turkish drones is 150
kilometers, so the Azerbaijanis and the Turks would have had to move
their launch point elsewhere to be within operational range unless the
communications range is greater than reported.
But the more profound question is why would the Azerbaijanis and the
Turks fly armed drones near Russian bases, risking Russia’s entrance
into the conflict. Gyumri serves as home to the 102nd Russian military
base controlled by Russia’s Southern Military District.
Were the drones sent on a one-way mission to fly over the area to put
the Russians on notice? It is interesting that in the photos of the
crashed drones there is no sign of any air-to-ground missiles such as
the MAM-L smart micro munition built by Turkey’s Rokestan.
Neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey has made any statement about having nine
of their drones knocked out in or around Gyumri. The Russian
government likewise has not made an official statement on the downed
drones.
 

Asia Times
Baku seems determined to fight through a US-brokered ceasefire as its
conflict with Armenia reaches a crucial crossroads
By Richard Giragosian
YEREVAN — One month into a massive military offensive for
Nagorno-Karabakh and hours into a failed US-brokered truce, Azerbaijan
is facing a crucial choice that could define the war’s outcome.
Azerbaijani troops, having advanced on the open terrain along the
Iranian border, have the momentum and appear to be fast approaching
the strategic Lachin corridor. But with its troops overstretched and
the Karabakh defenders having retreated to the forested high ground,
Baku is at a crossroads.
The choice is one of following military logic and sound strategy or
opting instead for a decision with greater political and diplomatic
dividends. But Azerbaijan can’t have it both ways.
Military logic suggests a choice of focusing on targeting the Lachin
corridor, the critical lifeline between Karabakh and Armenia. Any
success in cutting off the Lachin lifeline would be devastating,
endangering the resupply and flow of reinforcements to Karabakh and
subjecting the Karabakh Armenians to a months-long siege.
Yet for an Azerbaijani populace eager for full control of Karabakh
itself, that would not be enough, as such a choice would be neither
politically palatable nor sufficient in the face of dangerously high
expectations for complete victory.
And that leaves the second choice: a turn away from the Lachin
corridor for an attack on the city of Shushi within Karabakh itself.
The capture of the historic cultural center of Shushi, known to
Azerbaijanis as Shusha, would offer significant political rewards for
the government of President Ilham Aliyev. It would also enhance Baku’s
diplomatic bargaining power in any future negotiations.
Yet such a move would also incur tremendous military losses and usher
in a new, even more intense period of guerrilla warfare as Karabakh
forces would hold an advantage in mobility and surprise in an
insurgency-style campaign against the Azerbaijani forces.
Given the over-extended vulnerability and strained supply routes for
the Azerbaijani forces in the field for a month already, that may be
an especially risky decision.
Already, the Azerbaijani column – its advance driven more by political
objectives in Baku than military science – is inherently vulnerable
due to stretched supply lines and broken lines of communication.
This defiance of Clausewitzian military science may be tempting in
order to rush the advance and seize more territory, but Baku is
dangerously ignoring essential limitations and necessities.
[Photo: A volunteer fighter in a valley outside a village south-east
of Stepanakert on October 23, 2020, during the ongoing fighting
between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces over the breakaway region of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: AFP/Aris Messinis]
Winter is coming
As some Western military observers have noted to Asia Times, Baku’s
“teeth to tail” offensive lacks the staying power of supporting
logistics.
In addition, the Azerbaijani attacking column is increasingly spread
much too thin, with no rear-guard deployment of units or men capable
of holding the territorial gains they have achieved in areas south of
Karabakh.
This weakness will only return as a looming challenge for the
Azerbaijani attackers as any counter-attacks by the Karabakh Armenian
forces will face little resistance and could offer a much-needed
element of tactical surprise and “out-flanking” of exposed Azerbaijani
units.
Winter is now fast approaching, meaning any further Azerbaijani combat
operations will be especially difficult if not impossible in the
coming weeks due to low visibility and impassable snow-covered
mountainous terrain.
A second, often overlooked factor in the strategic context is the
operational doctrine and combat experience of the Karabakh Armenian
side. In the major past confrontations, most notably the initial
Karabakh war of the early 1990s and the five-day war of April 2016,
the Karabakh Armenians were initially losing before regrouping and
securing victories based on counter-attacks and repelling invasions.
This historical pattern offers another advantage for the Karabakh
defensive position beyond the already important edge of terrain and
topography, suggesting the real burden is on the attackers.
Beyond the daily reports of severe losses, high casualties and an
increasingly costly tactical campaign to both seize territory and
defend positions, it may be too early to discount the Karabakh
Armenian defenders.
After a weeks-long consistent Azerbaijani advance, a successful and
orderly retreat by the Karabakh forces allowed them to reposition and
regroup for a secondary defensive line based on the defenders’
advantages of terrain and topography.
After suffering serious losses in equipment and nearly 1,000
casualties, their counter-attacks and stubborn resistance have begun
to turn the tide of battle.
In recent days, the new defensive positions succeeded in halting the
Azerbaijani advance to within roughly 25 kilometers of the
strategically vital Lachin corridor, the sole highway connection
between Karabakh and Armenia.
At the same time, the retreat into the mountains and forests have
allowed the Karabakh forces to launch small unit attacks against the
more exposed Azerbaijani infantry and armored support.
And with such forested and mountainous terrain, the Azerbaijani
advantage of an air threat from their formidable Turkish and Israeli
military drones will be significantly diminished.
Yet with President Aliyev having promising full victory, the prospect
of stopping short of either Lachin or Shushi could risk political
suicide.
[Photo: Doctor Lucine Tovmasyan swabs the nose of an elderly woman as
she administers a Covid-19 test in the city of Stepanakert on October
23, 2020, during the ongoing fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani
forces over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Photo: AFP/Aris
Messinis]
Ceasing fire
Against this backdrop, even tripartite diplomatic engagement has
fallen short. Moscow, in an attempt to demonstrate its diplomatic
dominance, sought to force an agreement on the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministers in a hastily arranged meeting on October
9.
Backed by France and the United States, the two other co-chairing
nations of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s
(OSCE) so-called Minsk Group, this Russian initiative was initially
seen as a potent assertion of diplomatic power.
Yet both Azerbaijan and Turkey showed uncharacteristic courage in
resisting what they saw as Russian bluff and bluster, and the
Azerbaijani offensive continued unencumbered.
Such open and outright defiance of Russia stems from an Azerbaijani
determination fortified by an unprecedented level of direct Turkish
military and diplomatic support. Azerbaijani military gains in
territory and tactical success against the Karabakh Armenian defenders
have only deepened their reluctance to abide by a ceasefire.
In the wake of that rather surprising rebuke, a second diplomatic
initiative was launched. This time it was France, in a round of
American-style, shuttle diplomacy, with an emissary of French
President Emmanuel Macron flying into Yerevan and on to Baku for a
series of meetings with each side on October 15-16.
Despite accolades for innovation and initiative, that second effort at
securing a ceasefire also fell short.
Emboldened by territorial gains and encouraged by popular domestic
support rare for his authoritarian rule, President Aliyev flouted his
newfound victories and echoed Turkish complaints of the OSCE Minsk
Group, suggesting a greater role for Ankara in the mediation at the
expense of Paris.
And in the weakest and least promising round of diplomatic engagement,
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met separately with the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Washington on October 23.
[Photo: An image grab taken from a video made available on the
official web site of the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry on September 28,
2020, Photo: Handout /Azerbaijani Defense Ministry/AFP]
This belated American gesture was largely doomed from the start, and
was as much a move to show geopolitical relevance as to boost an
embattled Trump administration in the waning days of a contested
presidential election campaign.
While the US did succeed in securing an agreement to abide by yet
another cessation of hostilities, it already appeared to break down
within an hour of implementation.
Conflict mediation is never an easy task, dependent on a degree of
sincere political will among the parties to the conflict, and in
nearly all cases, a degree of conflict fatigue. In the case of
Nagorno-Karabakh, war-time diplomacy has failed, with dynamic
developments on the battlefield now driving the situation.
The latest commitment by the warring parties to a diplomatic summit in
Geneva, slated for October 29, can be expected to follow and not force
operations on the ground.
 

                                        Sunday, 
Aliyev Sets Conditions For Karabakh Ceasefire
        • Naira Bulghadarian
NAGORNO-KARABAKH -- Ethnic Armenian soldiers stand at a fighting position on the 
frontline, October 21, 2020
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that Baku is ready to halt 
hostilities in and around Nagorno-Karabakh if Armenia accepts a framework peace 
accord put forward by the United States, Russia and France.
“We are ready today to negotiate a ceasefire,” he told the Fox News TV network 
in an interview publicized by his office on Sunday. “But at the same time, 
Armenia, its prime minister must say that they support the basic principles [of 
a Karabakh settlement] drafted by the U.S., Russia and France.”
Aliyev said that Armenia should agree to “substantive” negotiations on those 
principles calling for a phased resolution of the Karabakh conflict. He claimed 
that Yerevan has “imitated” such talks until now.
A spokeswoman for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian dismissed Aliyev’s statement. 
Mane Gevorgian said that the current Armenian government has always expressed 
readiness to seek a compromise-based solution in contrast to Baku’s “maximalist” 
stance.
AZERBAIJAN -- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev gestures as he addresses the 
nation in Baku, October 20, 2020
In separate comments to the Sputinik news agency, Gevorgian said that Yerevan is 
“committed” to seeking a peace deal that would be based on the principles cited 
by Aliyev. “Armenia is prepared for a ceasefire and a negotiating process,” she 
said.
The warring sides twice reached ceasefire agreements brokered by Russia and 
France earlier this month. The large-scale fighting in the conflict zone has 
continued since then, however, with each side accusing the other of violating 
the agreements.
The Russian-mediated deal also committed Baku and Yerevan to “embarking on 
substantive negotiations with the aim of rapidly achieving a peaceful 
settlement.” It said the talks will focus on the “basic principles” that were 
first drafted by the U.S., Russian and French mediators over a decade ago.
“Their essence is known: a phased liberation of districts around Karabakh while 
observing security guarantees for Karabakh and ensuring a reliable link between 
Armenia and Karabakh until determining the final status of Karabakh,” Russian 
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on October 14.
Armenia -- Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian visits a military hospital in Yerevan 
where soldiers wounded during fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh are treated, October 
23, 2020.
The conflicting parties reported on Sunday continued fighting and shelling of 
civilian areas on either side of the Karabakh “line of contact.” Karabakh’s 
Armenian-backed army said 11 more of its soldiers have been killed in action, 
raising to 971 the total number of combat deaths within its ranks. The 
Azerbaijani army has still not disclosed its combat casualties.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said earlier this week that as many as 5,000 
soldiers from both sides have died since the outbreak of the war on September 27.
The hostilities continued despite what U.S. President Donald Trump described on 
Friday as “good progress” in U.S. efforts to restore a ceasefire regime. Trump 
spoke shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo held separate walks in 
Washington with the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers.
The ministers also met with Robert O’Brien, Trump’s national security adviser. 
“In my meeting with Azerbaijani FM [Jeyhun Bayramov] I pressed for an immediate 
ceasefire, then a return to Minsk Group-facilitated negotiations with Armenia 
and rejection of outside actors further destabilizing the situation,” O’Brien 
said afterwards.
Armenian Hospitals Overwhelmed With COVID-19 Patients
        • Karlen Aslanian
Armenia -- A healthcare worker in protective gear tends to a COVID-19 patient at 
the Surp Grigor Lusavorich Medical Center, Yerevan, June 5, 2020.
Armenian hospitals are increasingly struggling to cope with the pandemic due to 
a continuing surge in new coronavirus infections, Health Minister Arsen Torosian 
warned on Sunday.
A resurgence in cases officially registered in Armenia began in mid-September 
and accelerated after the outbreak on September 27 of the war in 
Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Armenian Ministry of Health reported in the morning that 2,314 people have 
tested positive for COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, compared with 1,371 cases 
registered on October 15. It had reported 850 single-day cases during the 
previous peak of the pandemic in late June.
The ministry also reported 23 more deaths caused by the disease, bringing the 
official death toll from COVID-19 to 1,180.
As of Sunday morning, there were 25,412 active coronavirus cases in the country 
of about 3 million. More than 800 of these patients are hospitalized in a 
serious or critical condition, Torosian said, adding that about 450 others are 
awaiting hospitalization.
In an interview with RFE/RL’s Armenian service, the minister said that the 
health authorities are now scrambling to increase the nationwide hospital 
capacity to deal with the increased influx of infected people. He said that 
Armenian hospitals may soon be unable to treat all patients in urgent need of 
life-saving medical aid if the spread of the disease continues unabated.
“If we are unable to hospitalize everyone there may be [coronavirus-related] 
deaths outside hospitals,” Torosian warned. He again pleaded with Armenians to 
wear masks and follow other safety rules set by the government.
Many people stopped taking these precautions after the start of the deadly war 
that has overshadowed the pandemic.
Torosian acknowledged that the continuing war has contributed to the second wave 
of COVID-19 infections. “I don’t know to what extent, but it has definitely 
aggravated the situation,” he said.
U.S. ‘Pushing’ Azerbaijan To Stop Karabakh Fighting
US-POLITICS-PRESS BRIEFING
The United States is pressing Azerbaijan to agree to a ceasefire in the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien 
said on Sunday.
"Under the president’s direction, we have spent the entire weekend trying to 
broker peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia has accepted a ceasefire. 
Azerbaijan has not yet,” O’Brien told CBS.
“We are pushing them [Azerbaijan] to do so,” he said.
U.S. President Donald Trump also commented on the Karabakh war as he spoke at an 
election campaign rally in New Hampshire. “Armenia, they are incredible people, 
they are fighting like hell and … we’re going to get something done,” he said.
“We’ll get that sorted out … I call that an easy one,” Trumped added, referring 
to the fighting. He did not elaborate.
O’Brien and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo separately met with the Armenian 
and Azerbaijan foreign ministers in Washington on Friday as part of 
international efforts to stop the month-long war over Karabakh.
“In my meeting with Azerbaijani FM [Jeyhun Bayramov] I pressed for an immediate 
ceasefire, then a return to Minsk Group-facilitated negotiations with Armenia 
and rejection of outside actors further destabilizing the situation,” O’Brien 
said shortly afterwards. “There is no military solution.”
Pompeo said, for his part, that he discussed with Bayramov and Armenian Foreign 
Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanian “critical steps to halt violence in the 
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”
According to the Reuters news agency, Mnatsakanian described his meeting with 
Pompeo as “very good” as he exited the U.S. State Department. He said work on a 
ceasefire will continue.
Russia and France already brokered Armenian-Azerbaijani ceasefire agreements on 
October 10 and October 17 respectively. The agreements did not stop hostilities 
in and around Karabakh, with the warring sides accusing each other of not 
respecting it.
Armenia says that the efforts to halt the hostilities are also obstructed by 
Turkey, a claim denied by Ankara and Baku. Pompeo criticized the Turkish role in 
the Karabakh conflict last week.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said, meanwhile, that the mediating powers 
should put pressure on Armenia if they want to stop the war.
“We have one condition: if the countries that have supported Armenia and created 
for almost 30 years conditions for its occupation of our lands want a ceasefire 
they must put pressure on Armenia,” Aliyev said, according to TASS. “The 
Armenian prime minister must state that his country will leave the occupied 
territories. We haven’t heard such a statement.”
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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