One Should Neither Overestimate, Nor Underestimate The Political Imp

ONE SHOULD NEITHER OVERESTIMATE, NOR UNDERESTIMATE THE POLITICAL IMPORTANCE OF ARMENIA
Mariam Levina

ArmInfo
2007-12-05 14:44:00

Interview with Dr. Gayane Novikova, Director of the Center for
Strategic Analysis SPECTRUM

Q) How successful can be considered the Armenian foreign policy,
taking into account that because of the Azerbaijani efforts Armenia
does not take part in any regional project?

I would not tie up the effectiveness of the foreign policy of our
state only with participation or non-participation in the regional
projects, although undoubtedly it impacts the economical situation in
the country. Taking into account that Armenia’s immediate neighbors –
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey – have a common vision of the policy
(although with different reasons) regarding our country, so Armenia
should search allies outside the region. I mean not only Russia,
the United States and European Union. The relations with them are
more or less predictable and are developing with their inner logic.

It is necessary to intensify contacts and try using, first, political,
and then, economical possibilities, which should be found in relations
with Ukraine, Kazakhstan, China, as well as the Balkan states. In
these directions we are losing, because they are considered maybe
as secondary.

Q) Armenian authorities insist on necessity of the Euro-integration
of the country, strengthening our relations with the USA and NATO, at
the same time saying that these processes do not oppose the relations
with traditional partners, in particular, Russian Federation. How long
is such a position possible, or is it possible only up to "some time"?

If we speak about the political processes, then taking into
consideration the trends, getting momentum in the region and in the
relations of the leading non-regional actors, the statements about the
Euro-integration as one of Armenia’s priorities should be considered
as the only correct. In general, the United States, as well as the
Euro-Atlantic structures (first of all, NATO and EU), being unable
to propose Armenia any principally new level of relationship, treat
Armenia’s relations with Russia, the use of such structures as the CIS,
CSTO and in the future maybe the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
by Armenia as much as it can, where Russia plays the leading role,
with due understanding.

It is possible to note quite interesting combination of Armenia’s
models of the political behavior. As regards to Europe, we demonstrate
our striving to democracy, readiness to share European values, the
common civilization identity. In the relations with United States the
factor of Diaspora is added to the adherence to democratic values. In
relations with Russia, which does not show any care with democracy in
the South Caucasian space today, Armenia is trying to look politically
attractive, strengthening its attractiveness, attracting the Russian
capital.

However, I think that we should expect pressure from the both sides
and Armenia can face the choice.

Q) Is there any necessity for re-orientation of Armenia, so to say,
"strictly to the West"?

I do not think so. Armenia is in quite a complicated situation,
mostly due to the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, almost
permanent instability in Georgia and the lack of possibility of
normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey even in the
long-term perspective. So it is necessary to solve the issue of
partners and allies strictly pragmatically: to increase relations
with the West, and , as I have just mentioned, to intensify relations
with some CIS and South Eastern European states, as well as China,
not narrowing the field of interaction with Russia. Taking into
account the participation of Russia in the economy of our country and
the level of cooperation in the military sphere, the re-orientation
"strictly to the West" can have disastrous consequences for Armenia.

Q) How do you evaluate the relations with Russia? How justified in
your opinion the statements about the "vassal" relations?

As far as the West as a whole does not consider Armenia as the
key state of the South Caucasian sub-region, and therefore, its
economical policy regarding our state sometimes is built on the
residual principle, so against that background the development of
relations with Russia, showing some economic interest, should be
evaluated as positive.

Speaking about the "vassal" relations" is incorrect. One should
not overestimate the Russian factor and underestimate the political
importance of Armenia for the same Russia.

Q) How satisfactory are the Armenian-Georgian relations? Can we
consider that there are no problems in these relations? Can the
periodical statements on the negative attitude of the central Georgian
authorities regarding the Armenians, living in Samtskhe-Javakheti
lead to aggravation of relations?

I do not consider the relations of the two states satisfactory. A year
ago our Center held a seminar, dedicated to the problems, existing in
the Armenian-Georgian relations with participation of representatives
of the Georgian expert community. A wide spectrum of mutually acute
problems was touched upon in the seminar, and appropriate risks and
threats for the both states were singled out.

Unfortunately, the emphasized orientation of Georgia to the West and
the huge dependence on the transit of energy resources have led to the
loss of its ability to maneuvering, which has its inevitable impact on
the relations with Armenia. Along with political problems, there are
also some economic problems – so as a whole, it is possible to say that
Georgia, having its own aims and obligations to its regional allies –
Azerbaijan and Turkey, does not make efforts to include Armenia into
the integration processes on the regional level, or, if we put it in
other words, does not hamper exclusion of Armenia from them.

As for Armenians of Samtskhe-Javakheti, then provocative statements
from the both sides, Georgian and Armenian, exactly do not
promote any stabilization and positive development of the bilateral
relations. Georgia is busy with the painful statehood-building process,
and quite often acts by the principle "you cannot make an omelet
without breaking eggs;" however, it is necessary to take into account
that in case if relations are aggravated, no matter who initiates
it and in which context, the final result will be bad for the two –
Georgia and Armenia.

Q) The relations with Iran. Armenian and Iranian representatives
from time to time make statements on the close economic cooperation
of the two states.

Do you think that the continuing intensification of relations may
have its impact on Armenia’s relations with the United States?

I do not think so. One should not forget that an interesting trend is
being outlined in the US-Iranian relations: the United States is trying
to engage Iran into settlement of the situation in Iraq and Lebanon. In
addition, requiring from Armenia to make any anti-Iranian statements
or actions would mean throwing our country into a very complicated
situation. I think that taking into account some objective factors,
the Armenia’s consistent position is being well-understood both in
the United States and in Iran.

Q) The relations with Turkey. Do you see any possibility in
normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations? How soon Turkey can
become the EU member?

No, I do not think that we can expect normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations even in the intermediate perspective. Even
more, the model of political behavior, chosen by Turkey, shows that
this country has no any intention to change the status quo in relations
with our state. As for the Turkish membership in the European Union,
the speed of the process most probably depends on how soon the Turkish
lobbyists inside this European structure will manage to convince their
Ñ~Aвои Ñ… vis-a-vis that, now let me quote one of experts of our
Center, "Turkey will enter the EU, and not the EU will enter Turkey."

Q) Can we consider the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement successful,
and if yes – how much?

Taking into account that the cease-fire is preserved along the
contact-line, then we can speak about the positive.

If we approach the issue from the view of awareness on the peace
process itself, then it is too low, although periodically the veil is
lifted. Let us take for example, the recent report by the International
Crisis Group on the situation in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, where many aspects of the negotiating process are made
public with quoting unnamed diplomats. I am not confident that it is
reasonable in the conditions of not only increasing aggressiveness in
the rhetoric of the Azerbaijani leadership, but also its preparations
to revanche.

In addition, the permanent references of the mediators that societies
are not prepared to the peaceful settlement indirectly reflect the
existence of much deeper contradictions between the negotiating
parties.

The absence of the NKR representatives at the negotiating table at
least causes regret and delays the process of settlement.

Q) Do you think that there will be any changes in the foreign policy
of the country after elections in Armenia? Is it possible to expect
changes in the Karabakh issue?

It depends on those who will be in power, although taking into account
the geo-strategic situation of Armenia, most probably, there will be
insignificant shifts in accents, and not drastic changes. The only
justified approach is continuation of balancing between the main
non-regional actors.

As for the changes in the Karabakh issue, I think that Armenia should
insist on getting Nagorno-Karabakh back to the negotiating process as
a full-fledged party. However, I have to point out that inclusion of
the "Karabakh card" into the pre-election campaign and using it for
discrediting each other by both – opposition and pro-governmental
forces is only in the interests of our opponents.

Q) In your opinion, is the international community showing up "double
standards" in approaching to various conflicts?

Each conflict is unique despite some similarities. So the approaches
of the international community should dynamic. Another matter is
what can be taken and how by this or that party to a conflict in its
own interests.

–Boundary_(ID_1/cpu6/WGCQFIiWzH5RuIA) —

Debitors Are Not Eligible For Loan

DEBITORS ARE NOT ELIGIBLE FOR LOAN

KarabakhOpen
05-12-2007 11:09:14

As of December 3, 27,908 ha of land was ploughed and winter wheat
was sown on 16,676 ha. These indices are 59.3 % and 35.4 percent of
indices as of December 4 of the past year.

Farmers of Hadrut think the government loan was necessary to boost
up winter wheat farming, the Azat Artsakh writes. 45 million drams
was allocated for loans to farmers, 39 million was disbursed. 4300
ha was ploughed, and 1120 ha of winter wheat was sown in the region
of Hadrut. These indices are lower compared with last year’s, but
farmers say without the loan it would have been lower. The farmers of
the villages of Aknaghbyur, Aygestan, Taghaser, Tsamdzor, Mokhrenes
and the communities of Hadrut who have not repaid the loans of the
past year were not eligible.

Harvard: Turkish Diplomat Talks Turkish Politics

Harvard Crimson, MA
Dec 5 2007

Diplomat Talks Turkish Politics

Ambassador discusses EU bid, Armenian genocide at Winthrop dinner

By DANIEL C. BERBERO
Contributing Writer

Turkish Ambassador Altay Cengizer discussed Turkey’s role on the
global political stage yesterday at a dinner discussion hosted by
International Relations on Campus (IRoC).

Turkey has made headlines in the past year with its continued effort
to enter the European Union, its denial that Turkish massacres of
Armenians in the early 20th Century constituted genocide, and its
recent military incursions into northern Iraq to attack Kurdish
militants.

Cengizer – who is currently a fellow at the Weatherhead Center for
International Affairs – said that he doubts that Kurds will seek
independence from Iraq, but said that Turkey is not opposed to
Kurdish independence in principle.

`As long as they choose what they want to do in a democratic process,
we will have no problems with them,’ Cengizer said.

Cengizer said that Turkey was willing to work with Armenia to form a
historical commission that would review the large-scale killings of
Armenians during World War I, adding that `Turkey is ready to accept
findings of that commission.’

`They were certainly killed of course,’ Cengizer said. `We are saying
`massacres.”

The Armenian question has been just one of many stumbling blocks in
Turkey’s relations with the West.

Germany and France have opposed admitting Turkey to the European
Union, partially because of the country’s large size, developing
economy, and cultural differences.

`These are devilish questions,’ Cengizer acknowledged. However, he
said that Europe needs to look beyond those differences and recognize
the benefits of Turkey’s entrance.

Cengizer emphasized Turkey’s global strategic importance, telling the
audience of about 10 students that Turkey is `the most industrialized
country between Tokyo and Vienna.’ He added that Turkey `is the only
Muslim country growing democratic roots.’

Noting Turkey’s unusually strong economic position, its role as a
friend to both sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and good
relations with Europe and the United States, Cengizer said Turkey `is
at the very center of things.’

Cengizer added that he believed the `fundamentals’ of Turkey’s
relationship with the United States were good, clouded only by a
`cursory’ treatment of Turkish political issues by the American
media.

Event organizer Ryan L. Newbrough ’09 was enthusiastic about the
dinner discussion, which was held in Winthrop House’s Owen Common
Room.

`Our goal this year is to have one IRoC dinner discussion a week,’
Newbrough said.

Attendee Tess M. Hellgren ’11 said Cengizer `was really interesting,
and he did a good job of explaining the history.’

5

http://www.thecrimson.com/article.aspx?ref=52111

TEHRAN: Ilkhanid-era Christian cemetery found in Iran

IranMania News, Iran
Dec 5 2007

Ilkhanid-era Christian cemetery found in Iran

Wednesday, December 05, 2007 – ?2005 IranMania.com

LONDON, December 5 (IranMania) – A Christian cemetery dating back to
the Mongol era has recently been discovered near the Soltanieh Dome,
an Islamic monument registered on the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage
List, MNA reported.

A single gravestone bearing ancient Armenian script led a team of
experts from the Soltanieh Dome Cultural Heritage Center to the
discovery of the burial ground, the Persian service of CHN reported
on Monday.

The artifact was unearthed by the team about two years ago during a
demarcation operation for the dome site.

`We were assisted in the deciphering of the script by a number of
Christian historians. After examining the relic, they informed us
that the artifact dates back to the Mongol era and that it was highly
likely that a cemetery dating back to that time would be located in
the vicinity,’ the center executive manager Mohammadreza Qorbanzadeh
said.

A translation of the inscription reads as follows: `Jesus, the only
son of the father, when it is time to return, the sleeping soul of
the late…’

Other parts of the inscription are illegible due to erosion.

`The cemetery, which is located near the Abbasabad region of the
Soltanieh Dome and the ancient city of Soltanieh will add to our
knowledge of the history of these sites,’ Qorbanzadeh said.

The Mongol ruler Hulegu Khan (c. 1217-1265), who founded the Ilkhanid
dynasty in Iran, selected the north central region of Iran for his
center of government. Hulegu’s mother showed an inclination towards
the Christian religion and as a result many Christian residents of
Tabriz emigrated to Soltanieh (location of present day Zanjan), being
an area over which he ruled.

In addition, Marco Giovanni Brambilla, an Italian professor at
Tehran’s Shahid Beheshti University, during his studies on the city
of Soltanieh, had previously surmised the existence of a Christian
Mongol era cemetery in the region.

TBILISI: Azerbaijan nets positive trade balance, Armenia negative

The Messenger, Georgia
Dec 5 2007

Azerbaijan nets positive trade balance, Armenia negative
By M. Alkhazashvili

(Translated by Diana Dundua)
Wednesday, December 5

Between January and October, 2007, Azerbaijan’s foreign trade
turnover totaled USD 9.2 billion. Exports reached USD 4.5 billion and
imports USD 4.4 billion, showing a positive trade balance of USD 398
million.

According to the Russian news agency Regnum, turnover during this
period between Russia and Azerbaijan totaled USD 1.2 billion, with
exports from Azerbaijan to Russia increasing by 70.3 percent.

The same period saw Armenia’s trade turnover rising by 37.5 percent
compared with 2006 to total USD 3.5 billion. Of this, USD 939.4
million came from exports (up 18.6 percent) and USD 2.5 billion from
imports (a 46.2 percent rise).

Armenia posted a negative trade balance of USD 1.6 billion, with
imports 2.6 times higher than exports.

Armenia’s turnover with the CIS states totaled USD 1.2 billion (33.2
percent of overall turnover), a 59.2 percent rise on the same period
of 2006.

A new propaganda war against Armenia

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Dec 6 2007

A NEW PROPAGANDA WAR AGAINST ARMENIA

The Turkish government that has recently started acting against
the `Kurdish Labor Party’ in Northern Iraq has initiated a new
propaganda war against Armenia.
According to the Turkish `sources’ the leadership of the `Kurdish
Labor Party’ that has been once expelled from Syria and has found
itself in a terrible situation in Northern Iraq at present, have
allegedly come to a decision to shift their fighters to Armenia over
the European Countries, later to transfer them to the `occupied
territories’ affiliated to Nagorno Karabakh.
As a trick to make the `Kurdish Labor Party’ retreat and meanwhile
accuse Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh of being linked with terrorists
the Turkish propaganda is quite understandable and very transparent.
Otherwise what would be the use of publishing information about the
intentions and plans of the `Kurdish Labor Party’, thus making it
difficult for them to catch their fighters, accused of terrorism.
It is clear that the article appeared in `Huriet’ according to
which `Kurdish Labor Party’ has allegedly placed its bases in
Southern Caucasus and that an Armenian terrorist is allegedly showing
them financial assistance, is also aimed at linking `Kurdish Labor
Party’ with Armenia. This is also a very familiar propaganda trick,
because once the Turkish journalists were trying to find Armenian
roots in the origins of the leader of `Kurdish Labor Party’ Abdullah
Ojalan or as they call him `Ermany Apo’.
Of course we could ignore this unsuccessful propaganda campaign by
the Turkish Mass Media, had official Baku not immediately responded
to this `information’. Based on the `outflow of the information’ in
the Turkish press, head of the Foreign Relations Department of the
Azeri President’s staff Novruz Mamedov, has already announced on
December 5 that: `Azerbaijan demands from the international
organizations to investigate the information about the settlement of
the fighting detachments of `Kurdish Labor Party’ terrorist
organization in the territory of Nagorno Karabakh.
But the queer doesn’t end here: stating that Armenia has allegedly
inhabited the Armenians and Kurdish people from Syria and Iraq and
that at present the turn of the `Kurdish Labor Party’ has come,
Novruz Mamedov confessed,’ that Azerbaijan is concerned about the
livelihood of terrorist organizations in Northern Iraq and Turkey and
during the recent visit of the Turkish President and prime Minister
to Azerbaijan the two sides confirmed their mutual cooperation and
assistance in the fight against terrorism.’
It was recently that Azerbaijan raised a hullabaloo saying that
thousands of Kurds are shifting to the eastern part of Azerbaijan
from the territory of Turkey and settle down there. They even brought
concrete data about the huge number of the Kurds settled down in the
regions situated in the northern and northeastern parts of the
Republic of Nagorno Karabakh. What happened with those Kurds? Aren’t
they linked with the ‘Kurdish Labor Party’?
Why don’t `Huriet’ and Novruz Mamedov utter a word, when the
information about the penetration of the thousands of Kurds has been
widely spread by the Mass Media of those countries? How can Armenians
agree to the settlement of the forces of `Kurdish Labor Party’ in the
liberated territories affiliated to NKR, when the opposite part of
the fighting line is already inhabited with thousands of Kurds?
As a verification of this fact we can bring the evaluation of the
famous Azerbaijani opposition activist, director of the `Institute of
Peace and Democracy’ Leyla Yunus to the prevocational article in
`Huriet’.
The Azerbaijani Defender of Public Rights has declared that
Azerbaijan itself becomes a transit country for many terrorists,
because of the transparency of the Turkish – Azerbaijani border. She
even reported to the correspondent of newspaper `Zerkalo’ that the
following has been verified due to their investigation: strange
people, arousing serious doubt have been settled down in the villages
of Nakhijevan Autonomous Republic and Geranbo region, which used to
be inhabited by Armenians. We have serious doubts that they are
Kurds, `…because they don’t communicate with the local people and are
under the police surveillance’.
The data reported by Leyla Yunus once again prove that Azerbaijani
government; especially Aliev’s governing clan still keeps his touches
with their kin ‘Kurdish Labor Party’ dating back to Heydar Aliev’s
years of power, still in Soviet times.
The recent Turkish-Azerbaijani hullabaloo regarding Armenia’s
`intentions’ to shift the fulcrums of the ‘Kurdish Labor Party’ in
the liberated territories affiliated to Nagorno Karabakh, over again
proves that in their efforts of propaganda campaign on the state
level our two neighbors have gone beyond all the limits.

VARDAN GRIGORYAN

The Armenia Fund rnovates the Nork infectious diseases hospital

Lragir, Armenia
Dec 4 2007

THE ARMENIA FUND RENOVATES THE NORK INFECTIOUS DISEASES HOSPITAL

The Armenia Fund completed renovation of the fourth floor of the Nork
Infectious Diseases Hospital `B’ block. The roof was renovated, a
heating system was installed, doors and windows were replaced.
Renovation of the third floor of the four-floor building is underway,
as is the construction of the boiler house. The whole project with
the budget of around 58 million AMD is scheduled to complete by the
end of the year. The project is carried out thanks to generous
funding by The Armenia Fund Brazilian affiliate.

In January 2007, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP),
Embassy of Brazil in Yerevan and The Armenia Fund (through the
support of the Armenian Diaspora in Brazil) funded the hospital `A’
block’s heating system through the construction of a boiler house.
UNDP’s cooperation with The Armenia Fund currently extends to the
Rural Development Program.

The Armenia Fund

ANC-WR Meets With "Little Armenia" CA Assemblymember Kevin de Leon

Armenian National Committee of America
Western Region
104 N. Belmont, Suite 208, Glendale, CA 91206 * Tel. (818) 500-1918
Fax. (818) 246-7353 * [email protected]

PRESS RELEASE ~ 2007-12-04
Contact: Haig Hovsepian ~ Tel: (818) 500-1918

ANC-WR Meets With "Little Armenia" California Assemblymember Kevin de Leon

Los Angeles, CA – On November 20th, 2007, Armenian National Committee
of America – Western Region (ANCA-WR) Board Member Souzi
Zerounian-Khanzadian and ANCA-WR Community Relations Director Haig
Hovsepian met with CA State Assemblymember Kevin de Leon at his Los
Angeles area district office.

Joining them for the meeting were Armond Aghakhanian, representative
from Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez’s office, and Alana Yanez, a field
representatives with the Assemblymember’s office. In the meeting,
participants discussed the ANC’s recent work in the Hollywood and
greater Los Angeles community as well as its voter registration and
community outreach projects in Little Armenia.

"We appreciated the opportunity to meet with Assemblymember de Leon
once again to discuss how we can reach out to and serve the community,
especially Little Armenia," said Zerounian-Khanzadian. "We look
forward to continuing to build on our strong relationship with him in
the coming year," she added.

This past month, Assemblymember de Leon was a featured speaker at
Rally 106 in Hollywood, an event organized by the Armenian Youth
Federation-Western Region to raise awareness about H.Res.106, the
Armenian Genocide resolution. In September, de Leon joined the ANC-WR
for its 2007 Annual Banquet.

The Armenian National Committee of America is the largest and most
influential Armenian-American grassroots political organization.
Working through a network of offices, chapters, and supporters
throughout the US and around the world, the ANCA actively advances the
concerns of the Armenian-American community on a broad range of
issues.

We May Win Medals

WE MAY WIN MEDALS

A1+
[02:05 pm] 27 November, 2007

The participants of World Youth Chess Championship 2007 in Antalya
are fighting for medals. In the 9-th tour the fight is more tensed
in all groups for the title of champion.

Avetik Grigoryan, under 18 years old is playing successfully. In this
tour, Avetik tied the match with Ivan Sarich and is in the second
place with 7 points.

Ivan Papov is leading the match list with 7.5 points.

Hrant Melkumyan, who is playing under this age, defeated Andrey Kvon
and is in the 9-th place with 6.5 points. Hrant was the deputy champion
of the pervious championship.

In the fight of under 16 years old Robert Hovhanissyan occupies 7-th
place with 6.5 points, and Davit Gevorgyan 20-th place with 6 points.

Samvel Ter-Sahakyan, under 14 years old, has Real chances to win a
medal. He shares 3-5 places with 7 points. Robert Aghasyan occupies
21-st place with 6 points. Honvhannes Gabuzyan and Norayr, under 12
years old, are in the middle of the match list with 5 points each and
are deprived of the opportunity to occupy a place in the match list.

Our three participants, under 10 years old group, play successfully,
while Tigran Harutunyan has all chances to win a medal. He is in
the 12-th place with 6.5 points. In the girls’ fight, the Armenian
representatives registered no successes in the 9-th tour.

Turkey’s Transformation Inevitable

TURKEY’S TRANSFORMATION INEVITABLE

PanARMENIAN.Net
29.11.2007 18:05 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Since 1999, Turkey has been experiencing
transformation of public, political and social life of the population,
Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the RA Academy
of Sciences, Professor Ruben Safrastyan said during round-table
discussions titled "Turkey after presidential elections: constitutional
changes and internal transformations."

These changes are inevitable, according to him. "Civil society is
being formed in Turkey. Independent NGOs are established as result
of close cooperation with European organizations. A non-governmental
organization is an absolutely new phenomenon for Turkey. Private
capital finds place in science and education. Women’s movement,
which unites dozens of thousand of women who suffered from Islamic
family laws, is gaining force. And the most important factor is the
restriction of the military power. The national security council had to
restrain activities and this is an advance for Turkey. Ranking the 17th
with the GDP index, the state becomes more economically open," he said.

Prof. Safrastyan noted that all this became possible due to activities
of the middle class, which formed the Justice and Development Party
(AKP). "Appearance of AKP is a natural phenomenon of political
history of Turkey, which combines the concept of ‘mild’ Islam and
market economy. Certainly, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is
the symbol of this transformation," he stressed.