ANALYSE
Aysor
Sept 4 2009
Armenia
At 31, August night Armenia and Turkey with Swiss participation
announced an agreement to normalize their diplomatic bilateral ties,
and the "roadmap" after being the focus of Armenian and Turkish society
and a number of world power centers last few months, clarified the
details of the diplomatic relations establishing.
The events of September marked a simple and important phenomenon:
the initiative policy pursued by official Yerevan has its real
results. However, World Powers which have their own interests in
region are awaiting and are pressing Turkey in order the populist
statements to be carried out.
It looks like analysts who thought Turkey would manage to turn the
process to make it inconvenient for Armenia or to make Armenia
to fall into an unconventional situation were wrong. Moreover,
everything carried out exactly the opposite. In fact, after Serzh
Sargsyan’s statement when the information-analytical field calm down,
it became clear that the statement was not only the kind, it was a
clear political message directed to the different sides and especially
to Ankara.
By the way, after the documents decelerated it may be said the PM
of Turkey fall into the unconventional situation after his loyalty
oaths to the "Jr. Brother". "Until Armenia doesn’t sign the agreement
between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Karabakh conflict, no final ties
will be carried out" – he has told. "We can work preliminary in the
direction of signing the agreement with Armenia, but it ultimately
depends on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict".
Erdogan himself has changed his position and he makes another statement
according the Armenian-Turkish relations. In particular, he says:
"A number of important events are coming and it is definitely there
is a progress in Armenian-Turkish relationships. However, without
parliamentary approval no one signed document could have legal force".
Turkey rules turning point in its policy which lead her to a new role
in the region, new partnership with countries she traditionally had
a tense relationship and never hold them among Turkish or Azerbaijani
interests.
The policy of isolation no longer justified itself nowadays. Ankara
has made a political decision to go on building relations with Armenia
to provide her own interests.
Turkey received a brilliant opportunity to establish and consolidate
its position in the region and to increase its geopolitical weight
in the strategic games of superpowers. Azerbaijan must not disturb it.
This point was confirmed by Erdogan’s top Adviser who noted that the
establishment of diplomatic relations with Armenia would continue
irrespective of whether the Karabakh issue resolved or not. "If even
the Karabakh issue is not resolved, Turkey will continue its efforts
to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia", – Hussein Chelik said
Now we can say that sounded statements indicate significant changes
in the geopolitical climate of the region when the former opponents
and competitors are trying to establish the foundation for cooperation.
On the one hand it concerns the plane of Russian-Turkish relations,
on the other hand – the Armenian-Turkish relations. However,
we should remember that in order to keep friendly relations with
Azerbaijan, Turkey at least formally and on public fields will relate
Armenian-Turkish relations with the Karabakh conflict.
By the way, Turkey has already taken some steps. The Foreign Minister
of Turkey A. Davudoglu wrote to the Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey
Lavrov and asked Russia to accelerate the process of resolving the
Karabakh conflict.
It is clear that, on the one hand, Turkey tries to solve the
"Jr. Brother’s" problems. And it tries to withdraw from the situation
of statements made before, on the other side.
Energy programs and the opening of communication routes that follow
such a complex processes, create a situation where the South Caucasus
is changing the geopolitical significance of the region.
Countries that have traditionally been in isolation will receive
completely a new status and positive implications.
According to the communication functions it is possible Georgia to
meet with serious problems. These difficulties stem by the war in
august and the future reopening of Armenian-Turkish border.
Therefore Azerbaijan and Georgia will be at unfavorable situation
because Azerbaijan had enjoyed blockade to deal its strategic problems,
and Georgia did the same in economy.
Thus, the processes of nowadays will be many stages and will reflect
not only inter-state goals, they will depend on the strategic, energy
and geopolitical interests of the superpowers.
All these will determine the future security and stability of the
region.