Author: Yeghisabet Arthur

RUSSIAN President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that “strictly technical” issues remain in resolving one of the main disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, neighbours previously in conflict over contested territory.

President Putin met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow, discussing a dispute over a winding road called the Lachin Corridor.

The route is the only authorised connection between Armenia and the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and is a lifeline for supplies to the region’s approximately 120,000 people.

President Aliyev and Premier Pashinyan, in a broader regional summit meeting Mr Putin hosted in Moscow, lashed out at each other for their positions regarding the land corridor.

But President Putin said that on the “principal issues, there is an agreement,” and later said all that remained were “surmountable obstacles,” calling them differences in terminology and “strictly technical.”

He said representatives of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan would meet in a week to try to resolve the remaining differences.

According to the Russian state news agency Tass, Mr Pashinyan said last Wednesday that Armenia and Azerbaijan recognise each other’s territorial integrity within Soviet administrative borders.

It added that on Monday, Mr Pashinyan said the territory of Azerbaijan that his government is ready to recognise includes Nagorno-Karabakh.

Mr Pashinyan said on Thursday: “I want to confirm that Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on mutual recognition of each other’s territorial integrity, and on this basis we can say that we are moving quite well towards settlement of our relations.”

Mr Aliyev said on Thursday that the Armenian leader’s statements ensure that “the issue of agreeing on other points of the peace treaty will go much easier, because it was the main factor on which we could not come to an agreement.”

President Putin told the leaders a key sign of progress is “an agreement on the fundamental issue of territorial integrity.”

He added: “And this is in fact the basis for agreeing on other issues of a secondary nature.”

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 that killed more than 6,000 people.

The war ended in a Russia-brokered armistice under which Armenia relinquished territories surrounding the region. Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan, but ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia had controlled the region and surrounding territories since 1994.

Azerbaijan has repeatedly alleged that Armenians have used the Lachin Corridor to bring weapons and ammunition into Nagorno-Karabakh in violation of the armistice terms.

The Sarsang Reservoir in Armenian-administered Nagorno-Karabakh is reaching critically low levels. If it gets much lower, the region will face crisis-level electricity shortages and environmental catastrophe. 

Karabakh has been largely dependent on the reservoir for electricity generation since early January, when cables from Armenia were damaged and could not be repaired amid Azerbaijan’s blockade. 

The severe water shortage – sure to worsen as temperatures rise and precipitation reduces in summer – will likely make it impossible for Karabakh authorities to deliver on a deal to provide Sarsang water to nearby Azerbaijani-controlled areas for agricultural purposes. This raises the risk of “military provocation” from Baku, local officials fear. 

Critical levels reached

Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto state minister, Gurgen Nersisyan, reported on May 6 that in the first five months of 2023 almost three times as much water had been released from the Sarsang Reservoir compared to the same period last year. This while water inflow was half as much due to lower precipitation. 

“Currently, Sarsang’s water resources have reached a critical limit of about 88 million cubic meters (about 15 percent of the total capacity), approaching the dead (unusable) volume of about 70 million cubic meters,” he wrote on Facebook.

His post included a striking pair of satellite images showing how much the water level in Sarsang has fallen between January 1 and April 28.

A few weeks later, on May 25, Karabakh’s energy distribution company announced that “unprecedented water scarcity” compelled it to further limit electricity production and introduce a new rolling blackout schedule of three 2-hour outages per day.

The Sarsang hydroelectric power plant is one of six remaining in the region and accounts for 70 percent of its generation capacity. 

Prior to the Armenian defeat in the Second Karabakh War of 2020, there were an additional 30 hydropower plants under the local authorities’ control and their loss resulted in a 59 percent decrease in generation capacity.

After the war, cables from Armenia through the Lachin corridor provided the region with about 70 percent of its electricity needs but this line was damaged in January, a few weeks after Azerbaijan began its blockade. 

On January 9, the Nagorno-Karabakh government began implementing rolling blackouts since the region was now entirely dependent on its own generation capacity. 

(During the blockade, which began on December 12 when Azerbaijani government-backed activists staged a sit-in on the Lachin corridor, Karabakh Armenians also dealt with periodic disruptions to internet access and natural gas supply. There has been no gas supply to Karabakh since March 22.)

Artak Beglaryan, an advisor to Karabakh’s de facto state minister, says that Sarsang and the region’s five other hydropower plants are operating at maximum capacity but will likely not meet the population’s needs in the coming weeks and months. 

“If precipitation decreases again, which will undoubtedly happen, soon in June, we will gradually extend the rolling blackouts. We will confront serious energy issues in summer, which will bring about dire humanitarian conditions. If the volume drops to the dead level, an environmental disaster will also fully manifest itself,” Beglaryan told Eurasianet.

Irrigation demands unlikely to be met

Davit Babayan, an advisor to the Karabakh president and founder of the water security committee after the First Karabakh War (1991-1994), says that when the Soviet authorities built the reservoir in 1976, it was meant both to generate electricity and to provide irrigation for surrounding farmland through a management system based in Terter, Azerbaijan. 

Between the two wars, the reservoir was used to generate electricity for the local Armenian population in winter. Water was simultaneously released into Azerbaijan-controlled territory, but it was of little use to local farmers because of the season. 

That changed after the second war, and in June 2022, Karabakh officials told Eurasianet that they had informally agreed to allow some of the water from Sarsang to flow into Azerbaijan for irrigation purposes in the summertime. 

But Babayan says since then Azerbaijan has declined numerous proposals for more detailed discussions on the joint use of the reservoir’s water. 

“They decided that any deal with Nagorno-Karabakh authorities would mean indirect recognition of the de-facto republic, and they preferred to leave their agricultural issues unresolved over signing agreements with Karabakh,” he said.

Aside from a brief experiment with dialogue in March 2023, Baku has been refusing to engage the Karabakh Armenian authorities. The main sticking point in the talks on a comprehensive peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is Yerevan’s insistence on guarantees for the rights and security of the Karabakh Armenians backed by some kind of international mechanism. Azerbaijan has not obliged despite Armenia’s now-explicit readiness to recognize its sovereignty over Karabakh.

Artak Beglaryan, the advisor to Karabakh’s state minister, believes Azerbaijan’s goal is the “complete de-electrification” of the region as part of its campaign of “psychological terror” aimed at pushing the Armenian population out of Karabakh.

“They are also trying to create a military pretext around this matter. If we do not release enough water in summer, because we will not have water there, they will use this for military provocations,” Beglaryan added, noting signs pointing to this in Azerbaijani media. 

Indeed, there have been at least some calls in Baku to take action over Sarsang. Adalat Verdiyev, a military expert, said that the drying of the reservoir could lead to cracks in the dam, which in turn could cause flooding in nearby Azerbaijani-populated areas once precipitation picks up again. “Six districts of Azerbaijan will wind up underwater. We must prevent this catastrophe,” he said, as quoted by Nedelia.az on May 22.

Beglaryan sees two solutions to the electricity issues: the restoration of electricity supplies from Armenia or unusually high precipitation – both of which he considers highly unlikely. 

“As an emergency response, we will reduce consumption to minimal levels and extend the power blackouts. We also make attempts to create alternative energy sources, but this is not a quick solution to the issue, and time is of the essence,” he added. 

Azerbaijanis call it the “Homeland War”. The Second Karabakh War, which lasted 44 days and was supported by the Turkish military intelligence, has fundamentally changed many things in the region. Azerbaijan regained its homeland territories while Türkiye’s influence in the Caucasus region increased. Iran suffered a strategic setback. Armenia was forced to return the lands it unjustly seized 30 years ago. The Western world could not intervene in this development that happened outside its control and was left out of the game.

A short parenthesis… Last week, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met at the White House. In the coming days, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan will meet in Brussels. The West is trying to get involved in the game by preparing the ground for such meetings.

Closing the parenthesis, the Second Karabakh War was also the first conventional warfare in which Turkish drones were used, as they were previously tested in Syria and Libya. The success of the UCAVs has led to the rewriting of the war doctrine.

Perhaps the most important impact of the Karabakh War was the favorable ground it created for regional peace. Those who expected more violence after the war were wrong. Ankara and Baku put forward a peace project that included Armenia to consolidate their gains and prevent further conflicts. They forced Armenia to embrace peace with a win-win approach. In this context, a normalization process was initiated between Ankara and Yerevan.

However, things are not going exactly as planned. While peace talks continue, reports of conflict occasionally come from the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. For example, three Azerbaijani soldiers lost their lives in a recent hot conflict.

The Nemesis Monument opened in Yerevan was an attempt to dynamite the fragile process. The monument is dedicated to Armenian assassins who targeted Turkish political and military figures. This was a malicious, provocative, and purposeful attempt.

As soon as Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu received the news of the opening of the monument, he activated the sanction card. “We will not allow flights from Armenia to third countries, including VIP flights,” he said.

What does this mean?

“In flights to Armenia from third countries, Turkish airspace will not be used. Planes taking off from Yerevan and heading to, for example, a European country, will have to find a longer and more costly route. This includes VIP flights as well.

However, Ankara’s reaction will not be limited to this. It is stated that more effective steps will be taken if the Armenian administration does not prevent such provocative actions. With this initial move, Ankara is sending the message, “If you don’t come to your senses, we will also block direct flights.” Saying “if provocative actions continue, the normalization process will end.”

So, did Yerevan receive this message? The first statement on the issue came from Pashinyan. Saying that the monument was opened by civil society organizations, Pashinyan used the _expression_, “The government did not make this decision. It was a wrong decision, and its implementation was also wrong.” Armenian Parliament Speaker Simonyan also said, “The monument is not a manifestation of Armenia’s foreign policy.”

It is not expected that Yerevan will remove the monument from its place due to domestic political reasons. However, it is predicted that Pashinyan and his team will be more sensitive to such provocations that could affect the normalization process in the future. As one source put it, “The stone we threw reached its target.”

ANKARA DOES NOT ACCEPT PRECONDITIONS

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu was in Moscow the day before yesterday as part of normalization talks with Syria. Türkiye, Russia, Iran, and Syria’s intelligence chiefs, as well as Defense Ministers, came together in a quadrilateral meeting to discuss normalization opportunities.

The Turkish delegation had made comprehensive preparations before going to Moscow. A message was given to the Syrian regime and other parties, “Let’s cooperate on terrorism, terrorism is a common enemy.” The importance of stability and the political process for Syrians to return to their country was emphasized at the meeting. Since the first meeting, the Syrian regime has continued to insist on “withdrawing Turkish troops from Syria.” As I have written before, Ankara cannot and will not accept this while the terrorist threat continues. Türkiye does not demand a precondition in this regard. It also strongly expresses its support for Syria’s territorial integrity.

The concrete result of the meeting was a decision to prepare a roadmap for the continuation of negotiations. The parties will work on the roadmap and present it to the leaders. This is a new stage in the normalization process. But there is still a long way to go.”

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/yahya-bostan/armenia-got-the-message-ankaras-warning-sends-a-clear-signal-to-yerevan-3664242

SAM HALL

Armenian officials have urged F1 to ‘raise a voice of protest’ against Azerbaijan’s ‘ethnic cleansing policy’ in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been ongoing since 1988 with a series of wars and periods of ‘low-intensity conflict’.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, although some territory is controlled by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh.

In recent years, the Armenian population has been expelled from the Azerbaijan-controlled area.

In a strongly worded statement released on Thursday, Armenian officials said: “The Ministry of Education, Science, Culture and Sports of the Republic of Armenia calls on the organisers of the “2023 Formula 1 Grand Prix” European tournament and the international sports community to raise a voice of protest regarding the ethnic cleansing policy of the Azerbaijani authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“The Ministry draws the attention of the sports community to the fact that since December 12, 2022, the Republic of Azerbaijan has illegally blocked the Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to both Armenia and the world, creating an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“On February 22, 2023, the United Nations International Court of Justice satisfied Armenia’s claim, obliging Azerbaijan to open the Lachin Corridor immediately.

“To this day, Azerbaijan has not only failed to comply with the court’s decision but has also cut off gas and electricity supplies.

“On April 23, the Azerbaijani authorities set up an illegal checkpoint on the humanitarian corridor connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, taking 120,000 Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh hostage.

“With this policy, the Azerbaijani authorities are trying to ethnically cleanse the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, forcing them to leave their native land.

“The organisation of the “2023 Formula 1 Grand Prix” European tournament in Baku aims to cover up the policy of extermination of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

“We call on the organisers and participants of the “2023 Formula 1 Grand Prix” not to be part of the cover-up of the policy of ethnic cleansing.”

F1 and the FIA have been contacted by GPFans for comment on the Armenian statement.

https://www.gpfans.com/en/f1-news/106355/armenia-f1-condemn-azerbaijan-grand-prix-ethnic-cleansing-policy/

AFP

France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna began a visit to Azerbaijan on Wednesday to hold talks with longtime leader Ilham Aliyev on easing tensions with Baku’s arch-foe and Caucasus neighbor Armenia.

Baku and Yerevan have been locked for decades in a territorial conflict over Azerbaijan’s Armenian-majority region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

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Colonna’s trip comes as both Western nations and Russia — which has traditionally mediated the conflict — accused Azerbaijan of violating the Moscow-brokered ceasefire that ended a 2020 war with Armenia.

Tensions flared again this week, with Baku setting up a checkpoint on the only land link between Armenia and Karabakh.

Colonna is due to hold talks with Aliyev — who became president after his father’s death in 2003 — and her Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov.

France has moved to make efforts to mediate the conflict in recent months, with Russia distracted by its Ukraine offensive.

A French diplomatic source said the visit was important but was taking place in a “tense” context, describing relations with Baku as “difficult in recent months.”

After visiting Baku, Colonna will travel to Yerevan before making her way to Georgia’s capital Tbilisi on Friday.