WHAT IS EXPECTED AFTER ST. PETERSBURG?
Vardan Grigoryan
Hayots Ashkharh Daily – Armenia
13 June 07
After the Kocharyan-Aliev regular meeting, the prospect of the further
developments expected in the Karabakh settlement process is currently
being discussed in a lively manner both in Armani and Azerbaijan.
Some of the politicians hold the viewpoint that the OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chairs are unlikely to organize a new meeting between
the Presidents during this summer and achieve the signature of a
specific document during the months of autumn. Because, regardless
the alternative proposals advanced by the parties in St. Petersburg,
sufficient time is required for discussing and adopting them as well
as organizing a new meeting.
Theoretically, Azerbaijan’s resuming the military actions may be
the "specific step" aimed at achieving the solution of the Karabakh
conflict.
However, both the ratio of powers and the complicated situation
developing around the region do not give our rival any chances to
demonstrate aggressiveness. All, especially the United States, are
against a new Armenian -Azerbaijani war, as in such situation they
will have to delay the realization of their plans in the region and
engage themselves in extinguishing the new hotbed of conflict.
Resuming military actions in the near future is possible only in case
of a sharp deterioration of the general situation in the region, when
the direct parties to the conflict are totally alone. And this is only
possible in case the United States launches missile attacks against
Iran. However, neither in such situation can anyone guarantee that that
Azerbaijan will not become the successive target of Iran’s responsive
actions. Moreover, in case of an American-Iranian confrontation Russia
cannot remain indifferent towards the Caucasus, as the destabilization
of the latter may block the Southern communications.
The second, more probable factor which may produce a serious impact on
the Karabakh process is the great likelihood of recognizing Kosovo’s
independence. In Hailiguendam President George Bush was outraged even
by French President Nicola Sarcozi’s modest proposal to postpone the
Kosovo issue for six months. The United States needs to promptly
resolve this problem either with or without the support of the UN
Security Council.
In both cases this may produce a snowball effect, since precedents
are strictly binding in international law. And Kosovo is a "matter
of honor" for the United States, as with the help of it the latter
is trying to show the whole world who the real master of the Earth is.
It is natural that in case of Kosovo becoming a precedent, the Armenian
diplomacy will come into possession of a wide field of maneuvers,
while Azerbaijan will lose its aces, i.e. the possibility to argue
"territorial integrity" – something that no longer exists.
The third factor which may have a serious impact on the negotiation
process is the prospect of the Presidential elections expected both
in Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Armenia the pre-election processes
are to start at the end of the year, while the electoral process are
expected at the beginning of 2008.
As to Azerbaijan, here the political campaign is to start during the
second half of the year. In the meantime, while the Opposition in
Armenia has no serious chances to speculate the "Karabakh play-card"
due to the "lack of grounds", there is the contrary situation in
Azerbaijan, i.e. the fact of this conflict being unsettled for around
20 years is becoming the opposition’s principal ace.
The reason is obvious. In addition to the fact of the Karabakh issue
being unsettled, it is extremely difficult to find accuse Ilham Aliev
with something that will win the approval of the Azerbaijani public and
drive them out to the streets. The Azerbaijani public is not so much
concerned by the violation of democracy or persecution against the
press, so here the Opposition will stick to the "Karabakh play-card"
till the last moment, as they say.
At the end of 2008, the parties may resume the negotiation process from
totally unequal positions if, of course, Armenia holds the Presidential
elections perfectly, benefits from the favorable developments expected
in international situation, improves its economic indices to a certain
degree and creates pre-requisites required for speeding up the NKR
international recognition.