Author: Vanyan Gary

USA TRY TO FORCE TURKEY OUT OF SOUTH CAUCASUS AS UNNECESSARY COMPETITOR: RUSSIAN EXPERT

ArmInfo
2008-11-11 16:40:00

ArmInfo. ‘The American troops have secured in the region and Washington
does not need strong Turkey as a conductor of the American policy in
the East any more. Consequently, the possibilities of maneuver in the
Near East reduce for Ankara, and Washington tries to force it out as
unnecessary competitor’, expert of the Strategic Russian Foundation
Andrey Areshev told ArmInfo.

‘Choice of the Caucasian direction may be used by the Turkish elite
as a consolidating factor: currently, the Transcaucasus is just the
region where Ankara may carry out an independent national policy
free f the West’s pressure, on one hand, and a political Islam,
on the other hand’, he said.

A. Areshev added that Ankara has a controlled ally – Azerbaijan, as
well as Georgia which, in virtue of the Georgian statehood crisis,
passed to the maximum rapprochement with Turkey. In this context,
Ankara had to correctly determine the moment when it would be possible
to involve the "problem" Armenia and its old competitor in the Caucasus
– Russia in the orbit of the Turkish policy. ‘Fundamental changes
in the South Caucasus after a ‘five-day war’ were used by Turkey to
make reorientation of its foreign policy. It was clear at the height
of the conflict that Ankara intends to play a more serious part in
the Caucasus than before’, the expert resumed.

NALBANDIAN: ‘GENOCIDE’ RESOLUTIONS NOT A REMEDY

Today’s Zaman
Nov 10 2008
Turkey

Armenia wants to maintain good ties with neighboring Turkey and
believes resolutions passed in other countries’ parliaments supporting
Armenian claims of genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire during
World War I will not help dialogue between the two countries, Armenia’s
foreign minister has reportedly said.

Eduard Nalbandian was speaking at a conference in Stockholm, NTV
reported. "Let’s say 20 countries have passed such resolutions. What
would happen if 50 more do the same?" Nalbandian asked in his
speech. He said Armenians had strong convictions that the genocide had
taken place but that a focus on this was not a remedy to ease strained
relations with Turkey. "We want to remain friends with Turkey, with
whom we are bound to stay neighbors forever," he was quoted as saying.

Nalbandian’s remarks appear to differ radically from the rhetoric of
the Armenian diaspora, which is pushing for the passage of genocide
resolutions in the parliaments of foreign countries. The US-Armenian
lobby is working hard to persuade the US Congress to pass a non-binding
resolution to that effect and is hoping that President-elect Barack
Obama will keep his campaign promise to support the initiative in
January, when he takes over the post from the outgoing George W. Bush.

Turkish analysts hope that dialogue with Armenia will be a major
blow to diaspora efforts to secure anti-Turkish resolutions in
other parliaments. President Abdullah Gul paid a taboo-breaking
visit to Armenia in September to watch a World Cup qualifying match
between the national teams of the two countries. Diplomats have been
reportedly holding secret talks on ways to normalize relations since
the landmark meeting.

Nalbandian also had a trilateral meeting with his Turkish and
Azerbaijani counterparts later in September, on the sidelines of UN
General Assembly in New York. The three foreign ministers discussed
the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey closed its border and
severed its ties with Armenia in 1993 to protest Armenia’s occupation
of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. This dispute and the row over
genocide claims are a major obstacle for dialogue between Turkey and
Armenia. Ankara denies the claims of genocide and says the killings
came when the Ottoman Empire was trying to quell an Armenian revolt,
a revolt assisted by Russian forces, for an independent state in
eastern Anatolia.

Nalbandian said in Stockholm that Nagorno-Karabakh can, in principle,
declare independence, saying this would not be against global norms
and trends. Armenia says it is ready for dialogue with Turkey without
conditions.

JAVIER SOLANA PRAISED PROGRESS IN ARMENIA-EU ACTION PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

PanARMENIAN.Net
06.11.2008 15:28 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ In the framework of a visit to Brussels, Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan met with High Representative for the Common
Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of the Council of the
European Union, Mr. Javier Solana to discuss implementation of the
ENP action plan, process of democratic reform in Armenia, Karabakh
conflict settlement, the Armenian-Turkish dialogue, regional security
and cooperation issues, the RA leader’s press office reported.

"Peace and stability in the Caucasus is the key requisite for
development of the region," Mr. Solana said.

TURKEY WELCOMES RUSSIAN MOVE ON UPPER KARABAKH ISSUE

Nov 6 2008
Turkey

Turkey on Wednesday welcomed a joint statement signed by heads of
state of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia who convened on November 2
to find a solution on Upper Karabakh problem.

According to a statement released by Turkish Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, Turkey welcomed the joint statement which said the parties
targeted a solution through direct dialogue based on international
law. The parties also agreed to continue work, including during
further contacts on a high level.

Turkish MFA statement said Turkey from the very beginning supported
a peaceful solution to the Upper Karabakh problem through dialogue
that would be accepted by both parties.

The statement said Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform
suggestion of Turkey, developed after clashes in Georgia in August,
targeted formation of conditions necessary to resolve all conflicts
through dialogue.

The statement said Turkey, which is at the same time a member of OSCE
Minsk Group, will continue to work with the related parties for the
solution of Upper Karabakh problem, which poses an important threat
to security and stability of the region.

"Turkey will also continue to support works and endeavors of the OSCE
Minsk Group," the statement added.

RUSSIA TRIES TO LURE AZERBAIJAN INTO ITS ORBIT AND SNUFF OUT THE NABUCCO GASLINE PROJECT
By Bedros Terzian, with permission of Petrostrategies

g/analysis/081103oil.html
Nov 6, 2008

Russia is poised to strike the final blow to the European Nabucco
gasline project, by making the most of its renewed influence in the
Caucasus after the "five-day war" in Georgia. This is part of an
all-out diplomatic drive launched by Moscow, in the aim of luring
Azerbaijan into its sphere of influence. Gazprom’s purchase offer
for the Azeri gas, which in principle is intended for the Nabucco
project, is a central piece in this strategy. If it succeeds, the
Europeans will see the main potential gas source for Nabucco slip
from their grasp. What’s more, if Moscow purchases all of the new
gas that Azerbaijan is planning to produce, as is reportedly its
intention, Baku will have nothing left to sell either to Turkey or
to the gasline projects promoted by Greece and Italy, which also
aim to diversify Europe’s supply sources. Such a scenario would
considerably boost Iran’s chances of emerging as a potential gas
source for Europe, since contributions from other possible suppliers
(Egypt, Iraq and Turkmenistan) appear distant, riddled with obstacles
and inconsequential in a number of cases. But the dispute over Iran’s
nuclear program is hindering the development of relations between
Europe and this country. In any case, if Moscow manages to lure Baku
into its game plan, Europe’s hopes of reducing its dependence on
Russian gas will be crushed for a long time to come. And this would
occur just as Russia–with the support of Venezuela and Iran¬–is
seeking to convert the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries into a "Gas
OPEC", to quote the Iranian Oil Minister.

The most extraordinary outcome of the targeted strengthening of ties
between Baku and Moscow is that Armenia could be asked to pay the
political price.

Russia’s President, Dimitri Medvedev, is apparently pushing hard to
seize concessions from the two parties, especially Armenia, to try to
achieve a solution over the Nagorno Karabagh conflict. The latter is
a small Armenian enclave, which Stalin handed to Azerbaijan in 1921
and which proclaimed its independence at the end of a revolt followed
by a war, which together lasted for six years (1998-2004). Baku
is demanding the "return" of Karabagh, invoking the principle of
territorial integrity; the Armenians refuse this outcome, invoking
the principle of self-determination. Medvedev, who visited the
Armenian capital on October 20 and 21, announced a forthcoming
meeting in Moscow with the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan
which, according to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has a
"very real chance" of putting an end to this conflict. "There remain
two or three unresolved issues that need to be agreed upon at the
next meetings of the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan", said
Lavrov. The first meeting took place on November 2, 2008 in Moscow
and, according to a joint statement, the two presidents agreed "to
speed up further moves in the negotiating process".

In fact, the conditions that would lead to an acceptable compromise
for the two opposing parties do not appear to have been secured. The
Russians are perfectly aware of this, of course. But, since the war in
Georgia, they have wanted to make the most of the recent low profile
of the US and weak European presence, in order to secure new footholds
in the Caucasus. They want their much publicized efforts to find a
solution to the Karabagh problem to be seen as proof of their good
will, especially towards Baku, but this also implicitly means that,
should such efforts fail, the conflict will not be resolved, or might
even flare up again. For their part, the Azeris are wondering how they
should react. The Georgian war in August revealed, on the one hand,
the limits of the support that the Americans and Europeans can provide
them, and on the other hand, just how far the Russians are prepared to
go when they believe that their most important interests are at stake.

During this mini war, Azerbaijan asked Russia to spare its hydrocarbon
facilities in Georgia: the BTC and Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, the BTE
gasline, the Port of Poti…. No facility was damaged, but bombs fell
not too far away. Which is now providing the Azeris with food for
thought: to use the words of the Vice-President of state-owned oil
firm Socar, why put all of one’s eggs in the same basket, especially
when this basket is so fragile? (PETROSTRATEGIES, October 6, 2008).

For their part, a number of European countries are suggesting that
Azerbaijan should diversify its export routes, by ensuring that the
Nabucco project’s gasline runs through Armenia. Moreover, this would
reduce the length of the line by around 350 kilometers, compared with
the Georgian route, which bypasses Armenian territory. But for Baku,
this solution is only foreseeable within the framework of a solution
to the Karabagh dispute.

Since Moscow wants to buy the Azeri gas itself, the prospect of a
solution to the Karabagh conflict (which Russian diplomats say they
are seeking) could turn out be against the Kremlin’s interests, at
least seen from this angle. In addition, having the Nabucco gasline run
through Armenia would enhance the energy independence of the latter,
which currently relies heavily on Russian supplies.

Baku is not sure which signpost to follow. Is it wise to have
the future Nabucco gasline run via Georgia? What would Russia’s
reaction be if Gazprom (which wants to purchase gas) were snubbed
by the Azeris? Should Baku try to win Russia over while hoping that
Moscow will gradually keep its distance from the Armenians? And then
what’s all the hurry? After all, having just reached its plateau of 1
million b/d, the ACG oil project ensures that Baku will receive very
comfortable revenues up to 2015 at least. Besides, the Italian-Russian
South Stream gasline project, which is considered to be a rival to
Nabucco, has itself been delayed by a few years.

Officially, Azerbaijan is planning to produce 32 bcm of gas in 2014
and 40 bcm in 2017. Its production stood at only 6.3 bcm in 2007 and
is expected to rise to around 11 bcm in 2008. Its Shah Deniz field
currently supplies the BTE gasline (which serves Georgia and Turkey),
and it is the incremental production from Shah Deniz that is being
wooed by both the Russians and the Europeans. This field produced 3.1
bcm in 2007 and 7.7 bcm are expected in 2008. The second development
phase is expected to boost its production to 10-11 bcm. Baku is also
pinning high hopes on the Absheron field, and is currently negotiating
the development of the latter with France’s Total.

–Boundary_(ID_pbNWZ4Qtq6PpEea1Ht6Jsw)–

ACTIVATION OF NEGOTIATIONS AFTER MOSCOW MEETING OF THREE PRESIDENTS WILL OPEN DOORS TO SETTLEMENT OF KARABAKH CONFLICT: ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTER

TREND News Agency
Nov 4 2008
Azerbaijan

Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian told media in Paris
Monday he hopes the activation of negotiations after Moscow meeting of
the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia will open doors to
settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The minister called the given
initiative quite important for starting a new stage of activation
of negotiations. The presidents instructed the foreign ministers
of Armenia and Azerbaijan to activate the negotiations, Nalbandian
said. After the negotiations and signing of a declaration, an enlarged
meeting with OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs took place, which was rather
rich in content and constructive. President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan
who is currently on a visit to France will meet his French counterpart
Nicolas Sarkozy to discuss the trilateral meeting at Maindorf Castle
in Moscow, reported Arminfo.

The co-chairs intend to visit Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan to
continue negotiations and boost the process, Nalbandian said.

Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia signed a Declaration on
Nagorny Karabakh conflict settlement in Moscow. The Declaration says
that the presidents will contribute to rehabilitating the situation in
the South Caucasus and ensuring stability and security in the region
through political settlement of Nagorny Karabakh conflict on the
basis of the principles and norms of the International Law and the
decisions and documents adopted within their framework, which will
create favorable conditions for economic development and versatile
cooperation in the region.

INTERVIEW: ON THE ROAD WITH ARMENIA’S ARDINSHININVESTBANK
Clare Nuttall

business new europe (subscpription)
1338
Nov 3 2008
Germany

Ardshininvestbank has emerged as one of the largest players in
Armenia’s small, but highly competitive, banking market. To keep up
the momentum, the bank is exploring many options to raise funds on
international and domestic markets.

When I caught up with deputy chairman Evgeny Spravtsev at the
BTA Interbanking conference in Almaty at the end of September, he
explained that the bank had passed two highly significant milestones
in the last year. First, in December 2007, the International Financial
Corporation (IFC) took a 10% stake in the bank, also providing a $15m
credit line for small business and mortgage funding. In July, Moody’s
Investors Service assigned its first credit rating to Ardshininvest. At
‘Ba3/Ba1/NP/D-‘, Ardshininvest has the highest rating it could hope
to gain given Armenia’s country ceiling.

These developments, Spravtsev says, are the bricks on which the
bank’s future will be built. "With the IFC’s investment and our
Moody’s rating, we can go to international financial markets to borrow
money. They make us more understandable for our peers, and show that
we’re as transparent as any CIS bank could be."

The bank is preparing for an AMD1.5bln (around $5m) domestic bond
issue at the end of November. "This is our debut issue. It’s a small
amount by international standards, but for Armenia it’s quite big –
almost four times largest than the latest issue. Our main objective
is to establish a credit history so we can borrow more in future,"
says Spratsev. It also has two deals in the pipeline with international
investors, to be closed by the end of this year.

Hard job

The lobby of the Intercontinental Hotel in Almaty seems an appropriate
place to mull over the pros and cons of raising money on international
capital markets, given Kazakhstan’s recent financial history. Comparing
Armenia to Kazakhstan, Spravtsev explains that, "The Armenian financial
sector is less involved with international financial markets. This
was a disadvantage, but at this stage it’s to our advantage because
we are not so harassed by the financial crisis." However, the gloom
that international capital markets have been plunged into means that
despite eight years of double-digit GDP growth in their country,
for Ardshininvestbank and other Armenian banks, it’s "not as easy to
raise capital as we thought."

A large part of Spravtsev’s role involves raising money and arranging
trade finance. He was invited to join Ardshininvestbank in order to
bring his experience of the Russian market – working at Home Credit
and Finance Bank – to Armenia. The bank’s owners had already spotted
that Armenia’s banking sector was progressing in a similar way to
Russia’s, but was several years behind in terms of development.

Evgeny Spravtsev

He is particularly proud of the IFC deal – "the largest deal with
an institutional investor in recent Armenian history," he points
out. As well as working on the bond issue and raising finance from
international investors, he is also working on partnerships with
international institutions and arranging trade finance, opening as many
lines for the bank as possible. Most recently, the bank announced a
trade finance deal with Ä~LSOB (Ceskoslovenská Obchodná Banka) – the
very first trade finance deal between Czech/Slovak and Armenian banks.

Given the highly competitive landscape of the Armenian banking sector,
investment is necessary to maintain Ardshininvestbank’s position as
one of the country’s top three banks. "There are 22 banks in Armenia –
that’s not many for some countries, but for Armenia it’s too many. We
expect to see a process of consolidation, and more new entrants to
the market," Spravtsev says.

Around 50% of Armenia’s banking sector is already in foreign hands,
and this figure is likely to increase. The Armenian banking sector
is extremely well regulated, according to a report released earlier
this year by ratings agency RusRating, which has further increased
its attractiveness to potential investors.

Ardshininvestbank’s majority owner, with 86.8% of the stock, is
Region-IFC – a diversified holding company owned by businessman Karen
Safaryan. It was formed in 2003 and later in that year acquired a
significant part of the assets and liabilities of two Armenian banks –
Ardshinbank and Armagrobank.

It is active across both corporate and private banking, with more
than 12,000 business clients and 52,000 private clients. "We think of
ourselves as a universal bank. There is no one sector that we would
like to develop more than others," Spravtsev says.

Today, the bank is Armenia’s largest in terms of authorized capital,
loans, net profit and term deposits. It is also a big player in
the international transfer market, which is highly important to the
Armenian economy – remittances from Russia amounted to $554m in the
first quarter of 2008 alone. "There is a huge cash flow into the
country from Armenians working abroad," explains Spravtsev. "For
many families this is their only source of income. We work with all
the major providers – both international firms like MoneyGram, and
CIS-based firms such as Unistream and FastPost."

Much of the Armenian economy is still cash-based, meaning that
Ardshininvestbank and its peers have an uphill struggle persuading
their clients to adopt new banking products.. "What I say to everyone
here is ‘be patient, you can’t do it all in a day’," Spravtsev
says. "Good communication is very important."

Highlighting its arrival as one of Armenia’s largest banks,
Ardshinivestbank moved to new headquarters in central Yerevan in
April this year. After three years of renovation work, the opening
of the new offices, designed by prominent Armenian architect Sargis
Gyurzadyan, was celebrated with a lavish housewarming attended by
the then president, Robert Kocharyan, and the president-elect, Serge
Sargsyan. It was the chairman of Ardshininvestbank’s management board
who summed up the significance of the occasion, describing his ambition
"to bring to life an idea of a pan-Armenian, big and powerful bank."

–Boundary_(ID_Gf6Lx2mZFrqLbKv+sIyrTA )–

International Herald Tribune, France
Nov 2 2008

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to intensify talks
The Associated PressPublished: November 2, 2008

MOSCOW: The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed Sunday to
intensify talks to end a 20-year conflict over the disputed territory
of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The pledge was made during discussions outside Moscow hosted by
Russia’s president that lasted less than three hours, according to a
joint statement.

Nagorno-Karabakh has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces
since a six-year conflict that killed about 30,000 and displaced 1
million people before a truce was reached in 1994. Sporadic clashes
have continued.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev proposed the talks last month and
they appear to reflect a renewed Kremlin effort to strengthen its
influence in the energy-rich Caspian region.

Presidents Serge Sarkisian of Armenia and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan
agreed to instruct their foreign ministers "to speed up further moves
in the negotiating process," the declaration said.

The foreign ministers will work with Russia, the U.S. and France,
co-chairmen of the so-called Minsk Group of the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has tried unsuccessfully to
negotiate a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

The U.S. also has promised recently to intensify its efforts to help
solve the conflict.

Washington and Moscow have both pointed to Georgia’s war with Russia
in August, saying it has underlined the need to settle other regional
conflicts through talks.

The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia met one-on-one before they
were joined by Medvedev for the talks, which took place at Medvedev’s
residence, Meiendorf Castle.

Aliyev and Sarkisian last met to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh in June
2007, also in Russia.

Interfax News Agency, Russia
Oct 30 2008

Armenian-Russian relations can only strengthen – Armenian foreign
minister

YEREVAN Oct 30

Changes in relations between Armenia and Russia could be only for the
better, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian said at a press
conference on Thursday.

"Armenia’s foreign policy is consistent. If anyone even notices
changes in Armenian-Russian relations, these changes could be only
toward the strengthening of partner relations," Nalbandian said.

"Partnership and strategic relations between our countries were
confirmed once again during Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit
to Yerevan," he said.

KARABAKH CONLICT TO BE REGULATED IF AZERBAIJAN WANTS THAT

Panorama.am
20:41 30/10/2008

The conflict of Nagorno Karabakh will be regulated if Azerbaijan
expresses political willing for that, while they make such
announcements in international organizations which create obstacles,
said the Foreign Minister of Armenia Edward Nalbandyan in a press
conference. He said that if Armenia acted correspondently then the
process of negotiations would be stopped. "Armenia has been always
moderate as we are willing to solve the problem and we treat the
negotiations seriously," said the Minister.

The Foreign Minister of Armenia has notified that Nagorno Karabakh
negotiations are conducted in the frames of OSCE Minsk Group and
"Madrid Principles", which are based on not applying any power,
guaranteeing territorial integration and self-governing right.

Commenting on why the co-chairmen don’t visit Armenia as currently
they are in Baku, the Foreign Minister said that they are aware of
Armenian position and they are trying to verify Azeri position.