RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 7, No. 46, 27 December 2004
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL’s Newsline Team
************************************************************
HEADLINES:
* CHRISTIANS IN IRAN
* TEHRAN DENOUNCES UN HUMAN RIGHTS RESOLUTION
* RIGHTS GROUPS SHINE SPOTLIGHT ON CAPITAL PUNISHMENT IN IRAN
* IMPRISONED STUDENT’S CASE COMES UP FOR REVIEW
* TEHRAN STUDENTS STAGE SIT-IN
* LABOR UNREST OCCURS UP AND DOWN IRAN
* LEGISLATOR DIES AFTER AUTO ACCIDENT
* IRANIAN COUNTERNARCOTICS PERSONNEL VISIT UZBEKISTAN
* TEHRAN FREEZES HEKMATYAR’S ASSETS
* INTELLIGENCE MINISTER’S VISIT TO BAKU YIELDS THREE NEW
PROTOCOLS
* IRAQ STOPS ISSUING VISAS TO IRANIANS
* TEHRAN BLAMES U.S. FOR BOMBINGS IN IRAQ
* IRAN ANNOUNCES ARREST OF ‘NUCLEAR SPIES’
* TEHRAN DOES NOT OBJECT TO U.S. ROLE IN NUCLEAR TALKS
* IRAN ALLEGEDLY MAKING URANIUM POWDER
* IS TEHRAN TRYING TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS? (Part 1)
* TEHRAN TAKES TWO TRACKS ON NUCLEAR-WEAPON DEVELOPMENT
(Part 2)
************************************************************
CHRISTIANS IN IRAN. Iran is officially designated the Islamic
Republic, yet among its more than 66million people is a small
Christian minority. Most of Iran’s Christians are Armenians and
Assyrians who have lived for centuries on the territory of what is
today Iran, and they remain relatively free to follow their faith.
Life for the increasing numbers of Protestants and evangelical
Christians is said to be much more difficult.
The number of Armenians, Iran’s largest Christian
minority, was estimated at about 300,000 in 1979. It has declined in
recent times but remains culturally important.
“The 400-year history of the Armenian community in Iran is
perhaps the greatest example of religious tolerance and peaceful
coexistence, even at the time when the country experienced isolation
and socioeconomic backwardness,” Radio Farda director Mardo Soghom
said. Soghom is Armenian by origin but grew up in the central Iranian
city of Isfahan. “In the 20th century, as the country modernized, the
Armenian community thrived both economically and culturally. After
the revolution, dislocations and restrictions affecting the general
population also created hardships for Armenians, nearly half the
community left Iran. Some discriminatory policies and restrictions
came into effect, but still community rights are generally
protected.”
Armenians have two seats in the Iranian parliament but
continue to face cultural, social, and administrative difficulties.
They report discrimination in finding work, and just a few Armenian
schools are fortunate enough to have an Armenian schoolmaster.
The Assyrian Christian population is estimated at some
10,000. They have one seat in the parliament. Iran is also home to a
small number of Catholics and a small but growing number of
Protestants.
A relatively new phenomenon is the rising number of
Muslim-born Iranians who convert to Christianity. Issa Dibaj is the
son of Reverend Hassan Dibaj, a Christian convert who was jailed and
later found murdered in 1994. Issa Dibaj left Iran five years ago and
now lives in the U.K. He told RFE/RL that the number of converts is
growing and he estimated that there are 100,000 of them.
Such Christians run a potentially dangerous risk. Under
Islamic law as practiced in Iran, a Muslim who converts to another
faith can face the death penalty. The government has refrained from
executing people for this in recent years; nevertheless it has taken
measures to curb proselytizing by Christians. Some churches have been
closed and reports say the authorities are putting pressure on
evangelicals not to recruit Muslims or to allow them to attend
services. In September, 85 members of the Assemblies of God church
were arrested during a conference in Iran. One remains in jail.
Dibaj said he sees a growing interest in Christianity despite
the restrictions: “[Iranians] see that the establishment which came
in the name of Islam has brought them only war, rancor, hatred, and
killings. At the same time, they see the message of Jesus, which is
love. It attracts them through programs they see on satellite or
through their Christian friends.” Dibaj added: “People are very
curious, very interested. Iranians [are] open and they like to know
more about different cultures, ideas, and religions. I had friends
who had been prisoners of war in Iraq, at the university they were my
best friends, they were very interested [about my faith], and I gave
some of them the Bible.”
Iranian Christians celebrate the birth of Jesus pretty much
like other Christians around the world. They decorate Christmas
trees, exchange gifts, and attend services. Depending on the
calendar, Armenians and Assyrians celebrate Christmas on 6 January.
Others celebrate usually on 24 December. According to some reports
Persia may even be the land of origin of the “ThreeWise Men” who —
according to the Bible — arrived bearing gifts for the birth of
Christ. Some say they were Persian “Magi” — members of the priestly
caste at the time. (Golnaz Esfandiari)
TEHRAN DENOUNCES UN HUMAN RIGHTS RESOLUTION. The United Nations
adopted on 21 December a resolution that criticized Iran for its
arbitrary sentencing, discrimination against women, floggings, public
executions, stonings, and torture, Reuters reported. Canada sponsored
the resolution, possibly because a Canadian citizen named Zahra
Kazemi was beaten to death in Evin prison in June 2003 (see “RFE/RL
Iran Report,” 14 and 21 July2003). The resolution also noted
Iran’s discrimination against religious minorities, including
Bahais, Christians, Jews, and Sunni Muslims.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said on
21Decemberthat the resolution is “politically motivated” and
“unrealistic,” Mehr NewsAgency reported. The resolution was adopted
by a vote of 71 in favor, 54against, and 55 abstentions. Assefi said
this tally indicates that many countries oppose politicization of
human rights institutions.
An Iranian state radio analyst referred to as “Mr. Fathi”
questioned the timing of the resolution at a time when U.S.,
European, and Israeli actions are “extremely inhumane.” The adoption
of the resolution marks the beginning of a European propaganda
campaign, he said. “Everyone in Iran knows,” he said, that the
country “values human rights and freedom of expression better than
any other country in the world.”
When the General Assembly’s human rights committee passed
the resolution in mid-November, RFE/RL correspondent Robert McMahon
cited Canadian Ambassador to the UN Allan Rock as saying that the
committee hopes the resolution will lead to change in Iran. The
resolution also noted UN rapporteurs’ visits to Iran and
different states’ human rights discussions with Iran as positive
developments. However, Rock said, overall deterioration of the
situation in Iran indicates that the weight of international opinion
must be brought to bear on Iran.
At the time of the November resolution, RFE/RL’s McMahon
reported, Iranian envoy Paimaneh Hasteh said the resolution’s
charges are baseless. Resolutions singling out Iran will fail, she
said. “We even warn that this approach, if it continues to prevail,
will jeopardize the entire processes of ongoing cooperation and
dialogue initiated by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran
at the bilateral and multilateral levels. (Bill Samii)
RIGHTS GROUPS SHINE SPOTLIGHT ON CAPITAL PUNISHMENT IN IRAN. An
Iranian official has confirmed reports published by some media as
well as Amnesty International that the country’s Supreme Court
has approved the death sentence of a woman convicted of adultery.
Judiciary spokesman Jamal Karimirad told Reuters that the judiciary
must still decide whether the woman will be stoned or hanged. The
news follows reports that another woman — a mentally disabled
19-year-old — faces imminent execution for “acts contrary to
chastity.”
Along with China and the United States, Iran has one of the
highest execution rates in the world. In the last two decades,
thousands of political prisoners, drug traffickers, and drug addicts
have been executed in the Islamic Republic. In 2003, more than 100
executions were recorded in Iran. Human rights groups, however, say
the real number of people put to death is much higher.
“Unfortunately, every year there are some 300 to 400
executions in Iran,” International Federation of Human Rights Leagues
Vice President Abdolkarim Lahiji told RFE/RL. “When we look at a
number of executions, we have to consider it in proportion with the
population of that country. Considering the populationof China and
the U.S., I have to say that Iran is on top of the list.”
Death sentences have also been issued for women convicted of
adultery and minors. In recent months, several cases have sparked
national and international indignation. In August, a 16-year-old
girl, Atefeh Rajabi, was hanged in public in the town of Neka for
having “illegitimate sexual relations.”
Now, human rights groups are expressing concern over the
possible execution of two other women — Hajieh Esmailvand and Leila
M. — both of whom face morality-related charges.
Nicole Choueiry is the Middle East press officer for Amnesty
International, and she discussed the cases with RFE/RL. “Hajieh
Esmailvand was sentenced to five years’ imprisonment, and the
Supreme Court then said that the sentence should be followed by
execution through stoning. The reason for this, as the court says, is
caused by adultery with an unnamed man who committed the adultery
when he was 17 years old. We know that she was imprisoned in the town
of Jolfa since January 2000.”
The Supreme Court reportedly ordered Esmailvand’s stoning
sentence to be carried out before 21 December. However, a judiciary
spokesman told Reuters on 18 December that there have been no orders
yet to carry out the sentence. He added that the sentence could still
be suspended by the head of the judiciary.
Leila, a 19-year-old who has the mental development of an
8-year-old, was sentenced on charges of having had intercourse with
blood relatives and giving birth to an illegitimate child. Reports
say the mother of Leila forced her into prostitution as a child.
Leila is now in prison, awaiting her fate.
Amnesty’s Choueiry noted that the Supreme Court has yet
to approve her death sentence: “Since the death sentence against
Leila M. has not been passed yet, we think there is also some room
for changing the death sentence, and this is why we’ve been
urging the Supreme Court not to pass and to confirm this sentence.
Three women this year have been sentenced to death in Iran with
regards to execution of minors. We have many concerns because Iran
has executed at least three child offenders in 2004.”
Choueiry said Amnesty is hoping to raise international
attention on the two cases in a bid to prevent the death sentences
from being carried out: “Amnesty International would like to appeal
to the Iranian authorities to reconsider their sentence against both
Leila M. and Hajieh Esmailzad because there is still a way for saving
their lives, we equally call on our members, on people all over the
world to pressure the Iranian government to do the same.”
According to Amnesty International, 10 minors have been put
to death in Iran since 1990. In October, some 20 Iran-based human
rights groups, including the Center of Human Rights Defenders founded
by Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi, called on the head of
Iran’s judiciary (Ayatollah MahmudHashemi-Shahrudi) not to
sentence minors to death.
Iran condemns young alleged offenders to death and then
executes them once they turn 18, the IFHRL’s Lahiji noted:
“According to our figures, 25 teenagers under the age of 18 who have
been sentenced to death are awaiting their unfair sentences to be
applied.”
Last autumn, the European Parliament strongly condemned the
execution of children in Iran and called on the Iranian authorities
to halt stoning and to prevent any further application of the death
penalty to minors. Iran’s judiciary recently announced that it
has sent a bill to parliament that, if approved, would eliminate the
death penalty and lashings for offenders under the age of 18.
Despite the heightened concern over juvenile execution in
Iran, Lahiji said the number of executions overall has decreased in
recent years. He cited two reasons for that: “First, as [the
authorities] say, they are trying to ‘legitimize’ the
executions. In that regard, the death sentences have to be approved
by the Supreme Court in Tehran. And the other reason is international
pressure and the struggle by human rights organizations under which
political executions have very much decreased in Iran.”
Amnesty International calls the death penalty the most
inhumane punishment of all, one that violates the right to life as
proclaimed in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. (Golnaz
Esfandiari)
IMPRISONED STUDENT’S CASE COMES UP FOR REVIEW. The case of a
young student whose image personified the Iranian student
demonstrations of July 1999 in the international media came up for
review on 20 December, according to the man’s attorney. A
photograph of Ahmad Batebi waving a bloody shirt was published by
major international media, and he was subsequently imprisoned for his
role in the 1999 tumult and his subsequent comments and actions.
Batebi’s attorney, Khalil Bahramian, told RFE/RL’s Radio
Farda on 19 December that after much effort he had the opportunity to
read his client’s file and he sees absolutely no reason for his
continuing imprisonment. Batebi is charged with acting against
national security, the lawyer said, but in fact he was helping
emergency crews tend to the injured from clashes between students and
hard-line vigilantes who stormed the Tehran University campus. The
15-year sentence against Batebi is groundless and he should be
released immediately, Bahramian claimed. Bahramian also told Radio
Farda that he has received a court summons. He is unaware of the
reason for the summons, he said. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN STUDENTS STAGE SIT-IN. An unspecified number of students at
Shahid Rajai University in Tehran have staged a sit-in, the Iranian
Labor News Agency (ILNA) reported on 20 December. They are objecting
to the 2 1/2-year suspension of Majid Ashrafzadeh, political
secretary of the university’s Islamic Student Association. ILNA
reported on 19 December that Ashrafzadeh was suspended for publishing
and directing “Dipar,” and the charges against him include spreading
rumors against the system and officials, promoting apostasy,
propagating for grouplets, and causing tension and rioting at the
university. The students at the sit-in unsuccessfully have demanded a
meeting with the vice-chancellor for student affairs. (Bill Samii)
LABOR UNREST OCCURS UP AND DOWN IRAN. The employees of a textile
factory in Gilan Province have not received their wages for seven
months and are threatening to march from the provincial capital of
Rasht to the capital city of Tehran, Radio Farda reported on 19
December. The factory workers have complained to the local House of
Labor. In the city of Khomein, workers at the Nakh-i Talai (Golden
Thread) factory in Khomein have not worked for almost four weeks
because they have not received their wages, Radio Farda reported.
There is no electricity at the factory and it is not operating. Issa
Kamali, a House of Labor official in the southern city of Bushehr,
cited cases in which workers there have not been paid for months,
Radio Farda reported. He said this is an especially risky situation
in the Asaluyeh area, where there are more than 50,000 Iranian and
foreign workers, because this affects national security and the oil
sector. (Bill Samii)
LEGISLATOR DIES AFTER AUTO ACCIDENT. Morteza Karami, a parliamentary
representative from Ilam, died on 19 December as a result of injuries
he suffered in a 7 December automobile accident, state television
reported. His burial was scheduled for 21 December. Iran has one of
the highest traffic-fatality rates in the world. (Bill Samii)
IRANIAN COUNTERNARCOTICS PERSONNEL VISIT UZBEKISTAN. An 11-member
team of Iranian Drug Control Headquarters (DCHQ) personnel has gone
to Uzbekistan for counternarcotics training, Mashhad Radio’s
Uzbek-language service reported on 20December. The trip follows
Uzbekistan’s agreement to provide 10 dogs for Iran. The training
takes place at a canine facility in Tashkent, and the United Nations
Office on Drugs and Crime is covering the costs of the dogs and their
handlers.
DCHQ chief Ali Hashemi visited Tashkent in early June. He met
with his Uzbek counterpart, Kamal Dustemov, on 1 June according to
IRNA, and they agreed on the need to cooperate on the problem posed
by Afghanistan, the world’s biggest opium producer. Hashemi met
with Uzbek Health Minister Firuz Nazirov on 3 June, IRNA reported.
Hashemi described his country’s demand-reduction efforts and said
there are 350 rehabilitation and treatment facilities in the country.
“We believe that if we spend one dollar on preventing drug addiction,
we willsave12 dollars for treatment and rehabilitation of addicts,”
Hashemi told his host. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN FREEZES HEKMATYAR’S ASSETS. The Iranian government has
frozen the bank accounts of former Afghan Prime Minister and current
Hizb-i Islami leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the BBC reported on 18
December and “Arman-e Melli” newspaper reported from Kabul the
following day. Hekmatyar’s mujahedin group was based in Pakistan
during the anti-Soviet jihad, and he served as prime minister when
the mujahedin seized power in Afghanistan (1992-96). Hekmatyar fled
to Iran after the Taliban takeover, and Tehran expelled him in early
2002 (see “RFE/RL Iran Report,” 4 March 2002). The freeze reportedly
is in response to a request from a United Nations committee that
monitors sanctions against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. (Bill Samii)
INTELLIGENCE MINISTER’S VISIT TO BAKU YIELDS THREE NEW PROTOCOLS.
Intelligence and Security Minister Hojatoleslam Ali Yunesi’s
mid-December visit to Baku resulted in the addition of three new
protocols to an earlier memorandum of understanding, Azerbaijan’s
Space TV reported on 19 December. The protocols were signed when
Yunesi met with Azerbaijani National Security Minister Eldar
Mahmudov, and they focus on counternarcotics, counterterrorism,
organized crime, smuggling, and illegal trade. The protocols were
added to a memorandum signed in July 2002, according to Space TV.
(Bill Samii)
IRAQ STOPS ISSUING VISAS TO IRANIANS. Muhammad Majid al-Shaykh, the
Iraqi ambassador to Iran, said on 19 December that his country has
stopped issuing visas to Iranian pilgrims because of the security
situation in his country, Iranian state radio reported. Al-Shaykh
rejected Jordanian King Abdullah’s earlier assertion that more
than 1 million Iranians have entered Iraq to vote in the 30 January
elections (see “RFE/RL Iran Report,” 14 December 2004). He explained
that the only visas issued to Iranians are business visas.
“Therefore, how is it possible for 1 million Iranians to have entered
Iraq?” he asked, apparently dismissing the possibility of illegal
immigrants to the country. “No foreigner can enter Iraq without a
visa, otherwise they will be arrested.”
Iranian Foreign Ministry official Masud Khaleqi said on 18
December that more than 1,500 Iranian pilgrims have been detained in
Iraq, IRNA reported. Families of the detainees demonstrated in front
of the Foreign Ministry in Tehran and demanded information on their
loved ones. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN BLAMES U.S. FOR BOMBINGS IN IRAQ. In Tehran on 20 December,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that the previous
day’s suicide bombings in the Iraqi cities of Al-Najaf and
Karbala reflect an effort to undermine Islamic unity and to spark a
sectarian war. In his comments to pilgrims preparing to leave for
Mecca, Khamenei said the United States wants a war between Shi’a
and Sunni Muslims, state radio reported. “I have no doubt that the
American and Israeli espionage services are involved in these
incidents,” he said. “They either do it themselves or they might
deceive a few people and force them to do it.” Khamenei warned his
audience that “mercenaries” will be hired to cause problems during
the pilgrimage.
Parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel condemned the
bombings on 20 December, IRNA reported, pinning the blame on the
“occupation forces” and those who fear Iraqis’ taking charge of
their country’s leadership.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said on 19
December that the bombings are “part of the effort to exacerbate
disputes, fan the flames of war, and cause insecurity for various
ethnic groups and religious sects,” state television reported.
“There is no doubt that the arrogance [United States] has new
plans to dominate the whole world, especially the Middle East
region,” Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani said in a 21 December address to clerics assigned
to the armed forces’ Ideological-Political Organization, state
television reported. Hashemi-Rafsanjani condemned the 19 December
bombings in Al-Najaf and Karbala, and he said clerics have played a
valuable role in restraining violence there.
Also on 21 December Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza
Assefi accused the United States of spreading rumors about alleged
Iranian interference in Iraqi affairs, IRNA reported. Assefi said
Tehran has challenged Washington to provide evidence to support its
accusations, but Washington has only said that Iran and Iraq are
neighbors. Assefi said Iran wants to assist in the restoration of
security and stability in Iraq.” (Bill Samii)
IRAN ANNOUNCES ARREST OF ‘NUCLEAR SPIES.’ Intelligence and
Security Minister Hojatoleslam Ali Yunesi said in Tehran on 22
December that over the last few years Iran has arrested more than ten
“nuclear spies” in Tehran and Hormozgan who were working for the U.S.
Central Intelligence Agency and Israel’s Mossad, state television
reported. Yunesi said, “Three of those spies were employees of the
Atomic Energy Organization. Some of them were military officers and
some of the others were self-employed.”
Yunesi added that any information the U.S. got through these
agents was “worthless.” The Mujahedin Khalq Organization, an exile
opposition group that is on the State Department’s list of
foreign terrorist organizations, has been the source of several
reports on covert Iranian nuclear activities. Yunesi claimed that the
U.S. let the MKO make these announcements in order to divert
attention from its principle agents. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN DOES NOT OBJECT TO U.S. ROLE IN NUCLEAR TALKS. Supreme
National Security Council official Hussein Musavian said on 21
December that Iran does not object o U.S. participation in the
current Iran-EU nuclear discussions, Radio Farda reported. He
dismissed the possibility of direct U.S.-Iran talks. Musavian saidthe
EU and the U.S. must settle their differences on how to handle the
Iranian nuclear issue.
Responding to a question about Musavian’s statement,
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on 22 December, “We
have certainly made clear our concerns about Iranian behavior,” Radio
Farda reported. “We have made clear our support for the European
Union effort to get them to suspend and stop their nuclear-enrichment
activities and programs that raise concerns about their development
of nuclear weapons.” Boucher continued: “We have made clear how
serious our concerns on these and other issues — we’re looking
for Iran to do something.”
Boucher went on to say that Washington is not interested in
having a more active role in the current Iran-EU negotiations. He
said, “We’re not looking for anything other than to see the
Iranians stop developing nuclear weapons, stop supporting terrorists,
stop trying to sabotage the peace process, and stop violating human
rights.” (Bill Samii)
IRAN ALLEGEDLY MAKING URANIUM POWDER. Anonymous diplomats in Vienna
said on 21December that by making uranium tetrafluoride (UF4) powder
Iran is violating the spirit but not the letter of its agreement to
freeze uranium-enrichment activities, AFP and Reuters reported.
Making the UF4 is permissible, although according to AFP this is a
precursor to UF6, a gas that is used in centrifuges to make enriched
uranium. (Bill Samii)
IS TEHRAN TRYING TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS? (PART 1) In the wake of
the Iraq invasion, there has been a faint but growing drumbeat
sounded in Washington by officials who believe the Bush
administration should now confront another member of its so-called
“axis of evil” — Iran. Washington alleges that Tehran is a state
sponsor of terrorism and that it is trying to develop nuclear
weapons. Tehran’s nuclear activities include building a
commercial reactor with Russian assistance near the Gulf port of
Bushehr. But what worries Washington are Tehran’s efforts to
master uranium enrichment — a process that can produce fuel for
nuclear reactors or, at advanced levels, material for nuclear bombs.
Until recently, Tehran kept those efforts secret from the UN’s
nuclear watchdog agency. Now, as UN inspectors insist that Iran fully
disclose all of its activities, the question of whether Iran is
seeking to develop nuclear weapons is the focus of worldwide debate.
In the first of a four-part series, “Iran Nuclear Crisis,” RFE/RL
looks at what is known — and unknown — about Iran’s nuclear
ambitions.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell recently put
Washington’s position toward Iran’s nuclear activities in
very clear terms. “The evidence that has been put forward so far
demonstrates clearly that Iran has been moving in the direction of
creating a nuclear weapon,” Powell said. “And that is why the
International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] got so involved, why the
Russians have been careful about providing fuel for the new reactor
at Bushehr, and why the European Union sent their three foreign
ministers in to get the Iranians to stop.”
But Iranian officials, including President Hojatoleslam
Mohammad Khatami, say Tehran is only interested in nuclear energy for
peaceful purposes. “We have made our choice: Peaceful nuclear
technology — yes. Atomic weapons — no. Not ‘no’ only for
ourselves — no [nuclear weapons] for the region, no [nuclear
weapons] for the world,” Khatami said.
So who is right?
Analysts say the only way to decide is to weigh the physical
evidence that has kept the crisis at the center of the world stage
since 2002. Much of that evidence emerged when an exiled Iranian
opposition group exposed a secret pilot project to master the process
of uranium enrichment. The project included some 160 assembled gas
centrifuges — plus equipment to build some 5,000 more — hidden in
reinforced underground bunkers strong enough to resist air strikes.
In the process, uranium is first converted to uranium
hexafluoride gas, a substance that is fed into centrifuges used to
enrich uranium.
The discovery of the sites was alarming because enriched
uranium can be used either as a nuclear fuel or — at higher levels
of enrichment — as material for nuclear bombs. It also showed that
Iran was violating safeguards in the international Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), of which it is a signatory. The
treaty gives Tehran the right to acquire nuclear energy for peaceful
purposes, but also binds it to declare all such facilities to the
UN’s IAEA and to open such sites to its inspectors.
Later visits to the site by IAEA inspectors revealed that
some of the centrifuges had been used to enrich two types of uranium
to 20 percent or more. That is far higher than the usual 2 to 3
percent enrichment level required for nuclear fuel.
Nonproliferation experts say uranium enriched to a 20 percent
level is sufficient to make a very cumbersome nuclear bomb. But it
falls well short of the enrichment levels — 90 percent or higher —
needed to produce the kinds of missile or airplane-deliverable
warheads that make a country a nuclear power.
Fred Wehling, an arms-control expert at the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California, says the discovery
of Iran’s uranium-enrichment activities made many
nonproliferation experts skeptical of Tehran’s explanation that
it was seeking only to master the nuclear fuel cycle for energy
purposes. “If Iran was to develop an indigenous enrichment capacity,
it could eventually make its own fuel, which could then be used in
Bushehr,” Wehling said. “But then if that were really the case, you
wouldn’t need to go to all the trouble of having a clandestine
facility and acquiring uranium under the table to test it and so on.”
Equally worrisome, nonproliferation experts said, are
indications that Iran might have built some of its uranium-enrichment
equipment according to blueprints acquired on the global black market
for nuclear secrets. The suspected source is the trafficking network
organized by Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan. It is not
known whether the network also sold Iran information about how to
design a nuclear weapon, as it did to Libya.
Since the discovery of Iran’s clandestine efforts, Tehran
has sought to assure the IAEA that it is now fully cooperating with
international inspectors to disclose all of its nuclear work.
But Tehran said it still insists on its right under the NPT
to develop its own nuclear fuel cycle and will not give that up.
There are varying estimates of how long it could take Iran to
develop a nuclear weapon, if it wished.
Daniel Keohane, an international security expert at the
Center for European Reform in London, put the timeline this way: “If
you ask the Europeans how far away are the Iranians from a bomb, the
general consensus seems to be four to six years. And in Washington, I
understand, the consensus is closer to three years and possibly even
sooner, depending on how the Iranians behave over the next year or
so.”
Keohane said any progress Tehran might make in developing a
nuclear weapon will be determined by how much it cooperates with
current efforts by European states to persuade it to give up programs
related to uranium enrichment in exchange for trade incentives.
(Charles Recknagel)
TEHRAN TAKES TWO TRACKS ON NUCLEAR-WEAPON DEVELOPMENT (PART 2). The
challenge for any country clandestinely seeking to become a nuclear
power is how to acquire enough fissile material for such weapons.
Most countries begin by starting a commercial nuclear program, a
right to which any state that has signed the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is entitled. The commercial program
can then provide a cover for engaging in so-called dual-use
activities, which can have either peaceful or military uses. In Part
2 of our series on the crisis over Iran’s nuclear program, we
look at the progress Tehran is believed to have made along two
separate routes to making a nuclear bomb.
One of the “dual-use” activities often exploited by nations
who are seeking to acquire nuclear weapons is the enrichment of
uranium. Enriched uranium can be used for nuclear fuel or — at high
levels of enrichment — for nuclear bombs.
The other method is the production of plutonium, a material
that can be used in medical research or — again — for nuclear
weapons.
Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell
reiterated Washington’s concerns over how Tehran intends to use
this technology. “We have to be nervous when a nation such as Iran
continues to take action that, at least suggests to us, that it
continues to be interested in a nuclear weapons program,” Powell
said.
Iranian officials said Tehran will not give up its right
under international treaties to produce its own reactor fuel, but
said they have no interest in nuclear weapons. President Mohammad
Khatami put Tehran’s position this way in late October: “We are
ready for complete cooperation and [to reach an] understanding with
the world and also with the [International Atomic Energy Agency, or
IAEA] to make sure that Iran’s [nuclear] activities do not move
toward nuclear weapons.”
Shannon Kile, an expert in nonproliferation issues at the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden,
noted that although Iran maintains that its programs are entirely
aimed at civilian nuclear energy and research, there are aspects of
each that are highly troubling to experts because they appear to go
well beyond normal civilian activities. “Well, Iran basically has two
uranium-enrichment facilities that we know about,” Kile said. “They
are both located at Natanz, which is south of Tehran. One is a very
small-scale facility, holding about 1,000 centrifuge cascades. The
other one is a much larger facility, holding up to 50,000
centrifuges. And what is striking about it is that it is built deep
underground with heavily reinforced walls and roofs, which would
indicate that, a) the Iranians are interested in hiding it, and b)
they are concerned about the possibility of military strikes against
it.”
Tehran did not declare the existence of these facilities to
UN arms inspectors — as required under the NPT — until the sites
were exposed by an exile Iranian opposition group in 2002. Follow-up
UN inspections of the facilities raised serious questions about
whether they were being used to enrich uranium to levels above that
needed for nuclear fuel.
“There are some specific activities that are troubling,” Kile
said. “The International Atomic Energy Agency has detected the
presence of high-enriched uranium on some of the centrifuge
components that they have examined. Now, they do accept that it is
possible that some of that contamination has come, in part, from a
third-country supplier, which would most likely be Pakistan. But it
is difficult to accept that all of it has come from a third-country
supplier. And that means that Iran might have enriched uranium. And
it is difficult to know why it would enrich [uranium] to that level
if it were going to simply use it for a nuclear fuel program.”
The UN nuclear agency’s inspectors found traces of
uranium enriched to 20 percent — far higher than the usual 2 to 3
percent enrichment level required for nuclear fuel.
Kile said many nuclear experts believe that unless Iran
commits to abandoning its uranium-enrichment activities, it could
acquire enough weapons-grade material for a bomb by 2007 or 2008.
However, he said it remains uncertain whether Iran is seeking to
produce a bomb immediately or is merely trying to perfect a technical
capacity for future production. That would permit Tehran to “break
out” as a nuclear power anytime in the future, should it feel the
need.
As for the second route to making a nuclear weapon, Iran has
a program to produce plutonium that centers on a heavy-water nuclear
reactor to be built near the central city of Arak. The project —
which was again not declared to arms inspectors until it was exposed
in 2002 — is described by Tehran as an effort to produce isotopes
for medical use.
But Iran’s plans worry many nuclear experts because it is
building what is commonly known as a “breeder reactor.” Such reactors
are efficient at quickly producing significant amounts of plutonium,
particularly for military use.
Kile said the “breeder” design exceeds normal specifications
for reactors generating plutonium for civilian uses. “The 40-watt
heavy-water reactor at Arak is ideally suited for producing
weapons-grade plutonium,” Kile said. “And, in fact, this is the type
of reactor that was used by all of the [original] nuclear weapons
states [United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China] in the
early years of their nuclear programs.”
Construction of the reactor is just now getting under way,
and it will be eight to 10 years before it becomes operational.
Kile said there is ample precedent for countries successfully
using both uranium enrichment and plutonium production as clandestine
routes to nuclear weapons. He noted that Pakistan is believed to have
derived a bomb using uranium enrichment, while India and Israel are
thought to have taken the plutonium route.
The five “nuclear-weapons nations” recognized under the NPT
— the United States, Russia, Britain, France, and China — have used
both technologies to produce their nuclear arsenals. (Charles
Recknagel)
(Parts 3 and 4 of Charles Recknagel’s series on
Iran’s nuclear program will appear in the next issue of the
“RFE/RL Iran Report.”)
*********************************************************
Copyright (c) 2004. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The “RFE/RL Iran Report” is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
For information on reprints, see:
Back issues are online at
http://www.rferl.org/about/content/request.asp
http://www.rferl.org/reports/iran-report/