Azerbaijan’s military reform a matter of priority – expert
Day.az website, Baku
5 Apr 07
Despite the current tension in the Persian Gulf region, Iran will not
strike against Azerbaijan, an Azeri military expert believes. In an
interview published on a website, Rauf Racabov said that,
nevertheless, the radical reform of the Azerbaijani armed forces was a
matter of priority. This is not so much because of the tension in the
Gulf but relations with Armenia and the need to resolve the Karabakh
conflict. The transition to a professional army should be carried out
as soon as possible, he said. The following is the text of report by
Azerbaijani website Day.az on 5 April headlined: "Rauf Racabov: ‘Iran
will not make any missile or bomb strikes against Azerbaijan’";
subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The world’s media has been talking more and more frequently of late
about the inevitability of US bomb strikes against Iran’s nuclear
facilities, pointing out in particular the possibility of retaliatory
strikes by Iran, including on Azerbaijan’s oil and gas pipelines. The
timescale for the start of these hostilities has also been named from
6 April to the beginning of summer. The present situation worries the
Azerbaijani public and they are particularly concerned that the
country might be dragged into a war and how prepared our army is for
action at the present time. A Day.az correspondent asked the military
expert Rauf Racabov to answer these and other questions.
Iran won’t strike at Azerbaijan
[Correspondent] Has the Azerbaijani army been updated to the stage
where missile strikes on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
pipelines and other strategic targets in our country can be protected?
[Racabov] I can put your mind at rest: Iran will not be making any
missile or bomb strikes on Azerbaijan. In the first place, the head
of the country has said more than once that Azerbaijani territory
cannot be used against Iran.
Secondly, the statement by the co-chairman of the Minsk OSCE group,
Matthew Bryza, about the possible use by US aircraft of one of
Azerbaijan’s military airfields for flights to Iran has been denied by
our Defence Ministry.
As far as a timetable for hostilities is concerned, I would point out
that the US would not start them before the beginning of the summer
because the time given to Iran to stop uranium enrichment and nuclear
research programme runs out at the end of May. And the date of 6 April
is nothing more than an attempt to put psychological pressure on the
Iranian leaders.
Updating armed forces a priority
As regards modernization, on the one hand the results of the war in
Afghanistan and Iraq make it necessary to treat the radical reform of
the Azerbaijani armed forces as a matter of priority. On the other
hand, let us not forget that the war in Iraq provided arguments not
only for the supporters of radical military reform but also its
opponents. Therefore, the next important question is to what extent
will the latest military and anti-terrorist operations and the
experience acquired affect military reform? In order to answer this
question one need to make it clear what is understood by military
reform in Azerbaijan and what are its tasks and objectives. The
differences in understanding the essence, tasks and objectives of
military reform are made conditional, first and foremost, on the
differences in approaches to the evaluation of Azerbaijan’s
military-political position in the region and in the world.
[Correspondent] It is no secret that of paramount importance in
carrying out reforms in our army is its utmost conformity to
Azerbaijan’s main objective the liberation of Nagornyy Karabakh and
other Armenian-occupied territories.
But life doesn’t end there…
[Racabov] One can pinpoint two approaches. According to the first and
traditional approach, despite all the changes in the
military-political situation in the region and the world, the main
military threat to Azerbaijan comes from Armenia. There is an
objective reason for this conclusion – the Karabakh conflict. But what
if the conflict is resolved in the short-term perspective?
The fact that the theoretical justification for this approach is based
on a number of the geopolitical theories of the end of the 20th
century does not change the essence of it. Accordingly, advocates of
this approach think that the structure and tasks of the armed forces
are similar to those the Azerbaijani armed forces faced at the end of
the last century. This approach, identifying the enemy, gives no
precise guidelines of Azerbaijan’s regional partnership, and thus
burdens our country with an even greater weight of military
preparations, The supporters of the second approach, on the other
hand, believe that the main threats come from the south. These are
threats linked with border problems and a whole number of
non-traditional threats and international terrorism.
This approach requires the radical restructuring of the armed
forces. The second approach presumes both regional partnership and
Azerbaijan’s European integration and its participation in the
coalition’s military operations (Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq). This
creates a more specific framework for the reform of the armed
forces. Today Azerbaijan finds itself in unique historical conditions
where in the long-term perspective it has no enemy-states and in the
fight against the other threat, namely international terrorism,
limited forces are required.
Both Azerbaijan’s main partners and its enemies may be defined within
the framework of these approaches. The general conclusions of recent
wars have once again confirmed what has long been known: Azerbaijan
does not need large, but well-trained armed forces, equipped with the
latest high-precision weapons.
[Correspondent] What should the tasks be in the reform of Azerbaijan’s
armed forces?
Tasks of military reform
[Racabov] The tasks of military reform are well known: firstly, to
eliminate the discrepancy between the structural characteristics of
the armed forces and those tasks which they should realistically be
solving. Secondly, to radically alter military construction which in
its present form does not accord with the real threats to Azerbaijan’s
security.
The armed forces’ priority tasks may be formulated only on the basis
of a realistic appraisal of the country’s military-political
situation. Apart from political-ideological factors, the particular
interests of the various types of armed forces play a very big part in
military planning and construction and in military reform. Of great
significance in the reform of the Azerbaijani armed forces is the
creation of units of permanent combat readiness which should comprise
no less than 25 per cent of the overall strength of ground troops.
And, of course, there is the transition to a professional
army. Sergeants and sergeant-majors in all units should be transferred
to contract-based service as soon as possible. However, there are
doubts about the way to implement the idea of transition to
contract-based military service. The experience of the military
operation in Iraq has confirmed the trend which emerged during World
War II, i.e. the increasing effectiveness of multi-service
operations. For a long time it has been not service components, not
individual arms of the service, but groups of various forces and means
which have been waging wars.
The lack in the Defence Ministry of a joint staff command and arms of
the service which have not been engaged in various actions has
prevented the enhancement of the combat potential of combined armed
forces which are able to carry out present-day military operations.
[Correspondent] What areas of the modernization of the Azerbaijani army
should be made priority?
High-precision weapons needed
[Racabov] Let’s begin by saying that all international experience
shows that the armed forces themselves are not capable of serious
transformation, and only the supreme legislative bodies or the
political will of the president of the country are capable of
conducting major reforms. One of the most important tasks in the
reform of the Azerbaijani army is choosing the priority directions of
the functioning of military organization. As the experience of recent
wars has once again conclusively proved, such a priority must be
high-precision weapons and integration with reconnaissance systems and
control and communications systems.
Azerbaijan does have some experience. There are still industrial
enterprises which can resolve this technological task. By maintaining
the army at its current strength, it is impossible to create modern
combat-ready and technologically equipped armed forces. The currently
accepted tactic of updating military equipment, which does not require
considerable funds, but continues to maintain the military potential
of the armed forces, cannot be justified. A priority task is to create
a high-tech embryo of the future armed forces which may be obtained in
2010-2015 in a perceived form, and then to build up forces in order to
counter as yet unpredictable threats to Azerbaijan’s security.
[Correspondent] Could you specify what precisely you mean by
Azerbaijani armed forces of a 2010-2015 model?
[Racabov] It seems to me these should be armed forces, the nucleus of
which will be mobile rapid reaction forces operating together with
transport aircraft and naval, rail and land transport led by an
operational joint command of strategic projection. Such rapid reaction
forces could become the embryo of the future army. They are vital for
taking part in coalition military operations, because in the
foreseeable future combat-ready armed forces and a high-tech army will
be vital not for parity in a confrontation with one’s neighbours, but
so that Azerbaijan can take part on equal terms in coalition
operations, including more complex ones than the war in Iraq.