Author: Tvankchian Parkev

INTERNATIONAL YOUTH CONFERENCE IN EGYPT

Panorama.am
19:02 28/08/2007

>From Sept 1-3, in the Egyptian city of Sharm-el-Sheikh, the "Youth
speaks, we listen: voices for peace" conference will take place. The
conference is sponsored by first-lady Suzan Mubarak, as the women’s
movement she leads foresees 500 young people taking the stage to
express their ideas and desires. Seven hundred youth from around the
world will participate.

A delegation from Armenia, headed by sports and youth vice-minister
Artur Poghosyan, plans on taking part in the events in Egypt. As
informed by Lilit Grigoryan of the ministry’s press service, "Our
delegation consists of those doing well in school as well as gifted
children. At this conference, the youth will try and make their
voices heard around the world, turning attention to issues they are
concerned about."

The Armenian young people also have the chance to present their
national culture, including presenting the following themes: "We
understand our own, and respect others," "Information technology:
in the name of peace," "Youth in charge of progress," "Violence or
peace: a personal choice," and "Preserving our planet." These will
be discussed following their presentation.

Bloomberg
Aug 27 2007

Erdogan, Gul Widen Army Rift, Gain Freer Hand on Turkish Sales

By Ben Holland

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) — Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
who chose a shining light bulb as his party’s symbol, is struggling
to keep the power on.

Turkey’s largely state-owned electricity industry had trouble coping
with high demand in the record temperatures of July and August. Now
that Erdogan has won re-election to a second five-year term, he can
proceed with plans to privatize the power companies.

“The state doesn’t have the necessary funds to solve these
problems,” says Yarkin Cebeci, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
in Istanbul. “One advantage of privatization is the chance for more
investment.”

In the electricity crisis, Erdogan, 53, whose Justice and Development
Party sold more state assets in its first five years in office than
all of his predecessors combined, is a victim of his own success.
Turkey needs more power because its factories are humming, and
wealthier Turks are demanding more and better services after 21
straight quarters of growth. Turkey’s gross domestic product has
expanded an average of 7 percent a year since Erdogan’s party was
first elected in 2002. Per-capita GDP has doubled, to $5,500. Erdogan
promised to lift the number to $10,000 in a second five-year term.

The strategy worked. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known
by its Turkish acronym AKP, won 47 percent of the vote, the biggest
plurality in more than four decades.

Assets for Sale

The win gives Erdogan the freedom to step up the sale of state
companies and push for new foreign investment. It also may widen the
rift with the Turkish army. The country’s military has questioned
Erdogan’s commitment to the secular system that’s been in place since
1923, when Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish republic.
The military forced the government to call early elections by
challenging Erdogan’s nominee for president, Foreign Minister
Abdullah Gul. In the wake of Erdogan’s election victory, the AKP
nominated Gul, 57, again.

A majority of lawmakers backed Gul’s candidacy in the initial stages
of voting for a new head of state last week. That means he has enough
support to ensure his election when the parliament meets for a third
round of voting on Tuesday.

“We’ll definitely have a new president in Mr. Gul,” says Hasan
Koni, professor at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul and a former
lecturer at a military academy. “Erdogan and Gul will work together
to help Turkey’s democratic and economic development. Meanwhile the
military has become like a lion that’s been shot — more dangerous.”

`What Do They Want?’

Barry Rubin, a researcher at the Global Research in International
Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel, says the election establishes
Justice and Development as a long-term ruling party.

“Now they can do what they want,” says Rubin, who also is editor of
the journal “Turkish Studies.” “The question is, What do they
want?”

One thing Erdogan says he wants is to put power stations, regional
electricity grids and the national lottery on the block. Earlier this
year, his government sold the right to operate a group of airports in
Istanbul and the resort of Antalya for $5.8 billion. And in early
July, after years of delay, Petkim Petrokimya Holding AS, a
state-owned chemicals maker, was sold for $2.05 billion to a group of
Russian and Kazakh investors.

Foreign direct investment is also booming. It rose to a record $19.8
billion in 2006 and totaled $11 billion for the first five months of
2007.

Bank Stocks

Turkey’s banks have been the chief target. In January, Citigroup Inc.
paid $3.1 billion for a 20 percent stake in Akbank TAS, Turkey’s
biggest company by market value. Amsterdam- based ING Groep NV agreed
in June to pay $2.67 billion for Oyak Bank AS.

Bank stocks have driven gains in Turkey’s stock market. Shares of
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS, a lender in which General Electric Co.
has a 26 percent stake, rose 82 percent in the 12 months ended on
Aug. 24. The benchmark ISE National 100 Index jumped 28 percent this
year as of Aug. 24, even with sharp corrections in April and July.

“We expect strong growth in banking,” says Hayri Culhaci, executive
vice president of Akbank. “It’s still the most-bullish sector in
Turkey.” He says loan issuance will expand about 25 percent this
year and 35 percent in 2008 as interest rates drop. The central bank
has kept its benchmark rate at 17.5 percent since July of last year
and says cuts are possible in the fourth quarter.

Budget Deficit

Erdogan says keeping the budget deficit under control is a top
priority. In 2001, Turkey paid more interest on the national debt
than it collected in tax revenue. The country’s 2006 budget deficit,
at 4 billion liras ($3.1 billion), or 0.7 percent of economic output,
was smaller in percentage terms than those of European Union members
France and Germany. Inflation, as high as 70 percent in 2002, hit a
37-year low of 6.9 percent in July.

Turkey’s fiscal restraint loosened ahead of the election, as Erdogan
increased spending on government salaries, municipal services and
health care and extended roads and water pipes to rural villages,
where the AKP is strong. In the first half of the year, outlays
excluding interest payments jumped 26 percent from a year earlier, to
73 billion liras, according to Finance Ministry figures.

Central Bank Governor Durmus Yilmaz said at a press conference in
Ankara on July 27 that the government needs to cut spending in the
second half of the year to ensure it hits an International Monetary
Fund-backed budget surplus target, before interest payments, equal to
6.5 percent of economic output. The bank might postpone interest rate
cuts if the government fails to hit the mark, Yilmaz, 60, said.

`Fiscal Hammer’

Tolga Ediz, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in London,
says that with growth at 7 percent, the economy is in danger of
overheating.

“They need to put the fiscal hammer down in the next few years, as
confidence comes back, rates come down and capital flows in,” Ediz
says. “The economy’s going to kick off now, and you need a really
tight policy.”

Turkey’s budget targets have been in place since it negotiated an
economic plan with the IMF in 2002. The government pledged to curb
spending and sell state companies in exchange for about $23 billion
in IMF loans. The government hasn’t said whether it will maintain its
ties with the fund once the accord ends in May 2008.

IMF Role

Kubilay Cinemre, head of the Turkish office of Merrill Lynch & Co.,
credits IMF-backed spending cuts with bringing inflation down and
attracting buyers for the country’s bonds. Foreign ownership of
Turkey’s domestic debt has risen almost 10- fold in the past four
years to about $36 billion, according to the country’s bank
regulator.

“The IMF is still injecting a certain degree of credibility into
Turkey’s overall economic policy,” Cinemre says. “The IMF
connection should continue.”

Alongside IMF loans, Turkey’s bid for membership in the EU has served
as a guarantee for investors that the country will stick with its
economic program.

Erdogan’s fresh mandate may help him revive stalled EU talks. Until
now, he’s delayed addressing EU demands that Turkey expand the rights
of its Kurdish minority and repeal Article 301 of the country’s penal
code, which forbids “insulting Turkish national identity.”

The law was used to prosecute Nobel Prize-winning novelist Orhan
Pamuk after he said that Turks had massacred Armenians during World
War I. The charges were dismissed in January 2006.

Tread Softly

Political changes in Europe haven’t helped Turkey’s bid. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy both
oppose Turkish membership and favor a “special partnership”
instead.

Even with his election win, Erdogan must still tread softly in his
dealings with Turkey’s army, whose leaders are suspicious of the
AKP’s religious roots. Erdogan and Foreign Minister Gul both started
out in politics as members of the Welfare Party, which was pushed out
of office by the army in 1997 and shut down by the courts a year
later for alleged Islamist activities.

Erdogan and Gul’s wives wear the Islamic-style head-scarf that’s
barred in state offices and universities under Turkish law. The
politicians say they favor an end to that ban, though they took no
steps to repeal the law during the AKP’s first term.

Army Mistrust

Erdogan and Gul say the AKP is a conservative party rather than a
religiously motivated one and that they support the separation of
Islam and the state. They oppose the headscarf ban and similar laws,
they say, because they are restrictions on free speech.

Army mistrust of the AKP government peaked in April, when Erdogan
sought to replace the secularist president, Ahmet Necdet Sezer, whose
term was expiring, with Gul. (The president, who has final say on the
appointment of top judges and the central bank president, is elected
by parliament.)

On April 27, Turkey’s generals, who have ousted four governments
since 1960, posted a late-night statement on the General Staff Web
site criticizing Gul’s presidential bid. “It should not be forgotten
that the armed forces are the determined defenders of secularism,”
the statement said.

Turkey’s benchmark stock index slid more than 7 percent in the two
days following the army warning.

The Constitutional Court then canceled the vote for the presidency,
ruling that an opposition boycott meant there wasn’t a quorum. That
forced Erdogan to bring the general election forward to July from
November, with Sezer, 66, staying on as president.

This time, fewer lawmakers are staying away from the presidential
vote. On Tuesday, in the third round of voting, Gul will need only a
simple majority, instead of the two-thirds majority required in the
two previous rounds.

Erdogan’s election victory suggests that for Turks who have prospered
under his rule, concerns about Gul’s secular credentials count for
less than the fact that the country’s economy is enjoying its
most-productive period since World War II.

;sid=a_qIwstSYXy8&refer=home

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Aug 23 2007

Iranian President’s Baku Visit not to Change State of Azerbaijani
Population in Iran – Leader of Azerbaijani Party

Azerbaijan, Baku / Òrend corr S. Ilhamgizi / Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s Baku visit will not change the problem
regarding violation of Iran’s Azerbaijani many-million population,
the leader of Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP), Etibar
Mammadov, said to Trend on 23 August.

Iranian President was visiting Azerbaijan from 21 to 22 August.
Several agreements and a memorandum were signed between Azerbaijani
and Iranian Governments during the meeting.

According to Mammadov, observation of Iranian Azerbaijanis’ rights is
not under discussions and between Iran and Azerbaijan and
Ahmadinejad’s Baku visit will change nothing.

`The only problem in the bilateral relationships is violation of
Iran’s Azerbaijani population. Azerbaijani Government does not raise
the issue. Despite improvement of official relationships between the
countries, the state of our compatriots in Iran will not change,’
Mammadov said.

Azerbaijani Government at least should not impede putting the issue
on protection of Iranian Azerbaijanis for discussion, the leader of
the ANIP said. In this connection Mammadov mentioned recent events in
Baku, namely dispersal of protest actions in front of Iranian Embassy
by police.

`Azerbaijani Government should be in charge of protection of world
Azerbaijanis’ rights not depending in their residence. Unfortunately,
the authorities do not take this duty. That should not affect
Azerbaijan’s official relationships with other countries, including
Iran,’ Mammadov said.

Improvement of bilateral official relationships and Ahmadinejad’s
visit will not stop Iran secretly and openly assisting Armenia in
Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Mammadov said.

According to unofficial reports, Iran’s indigenous Azerbaijani
population makes up 35mln.

The leader of opposition ANIP is the deputy chairman of the
International Democratic Union. ANIP is a party criticizing Iranian
authorities for violation of the rights of the Azerbaijanis residing
in the country.

Inland Valley Daily Bulletin, CA
Aug 24 2007

Armenian, Turk show the way to peace

By Imani Tate, Staff Writer
Article Launched: 08/23/2007 11:00:00 PM PDT

In the summer of 2004, a stranger hugged him at the Martyrs Monument
in Armenia and Garbis Der Yeghiayan wondered, "Who are you? How do
you know me?"
"Truly an ambassador of peace to the world" is the way La Verne Mayor
Jon Blickenstaff describes Der Yeghiayan, a La Verne resident and
past Rotary International District 5300 governor.

The man at the monument thought so, too.

When Der Yeghiayan goes to Armenia, he goes directly to the monument
from the airport to pay his respects to the 1.5 million Armenians
murdered by the Young Turks in an early 20th century holocaust.

The stranger went to the monument to find Der Yeghiayan.

"He said there’s an event this evening honoring you as the founder of
the Rotary club in Yerevan, Armenia, and I’m here to speak on that
occasion," recalled the still baffled Der Yeghiayan. "Again, I am
curious and ask him, `Who are you? I don’t know you.’

"He said `I know you. You’re a peacemaker. I’m a peacemaker, too, so
we have something in common."’

The stranger was Erhan Ciftcioglu, the Rotary district governor in
Turkey. The historic meeting became even more so as the Armenian and
the Turk then kneeled at the monument and prayed for peace.

"My sister Knar and everyone are shocked to see an Armenian and a
Turk together, especially at the Martyrs Monument," Der Yeghiayan
said.

"What united us," Der Yeghiayan explained, "was Rotary International,
an organization promoting peace. We hugged and said, `we are
brothers, you and I. Together, we will accomplish the impossible.’
The peace conference idea was born at the Martyrs Monument."

Ciftcioglu returned to Mersin, Turkey, and initiated a peace
exchange, starting with 25 Armenian children hosted by local Turkish
families. The cultural exchange prompted the children and families to
become peace-and-reconciliation advocates themselves.

In March 2005, a peace conference was held in Ankara, Turkey,
bringing together Rotarians from Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan for
the first time.

Der Yeghiayan and Ciftcioglu served as conference co-chairs. The
former gave an emotionally charged speech that left Armenians and
Turks hugging and crying.

"It’s almost impossible to describe in words because of all the mixed
emotions you feel when descendants of the martyrs show any
camaraderie with descendants of those who martyred them," Der
Yeghiayan confessed.

"As the great-grandson of a martyred archpriest, I had this very
special feeling that I was making a difference. This was a very, very
rare moment in the history of our two people," he continued.

Armenians, recognized as loyal by the Ottoman Empire, had peacefully
lived as good neighbors with Turks for 700 years before the genocide,
he noted. Many Turks hid Armenian neighbors and helped them survive
the slaughter, he added.

Denying the genocide and re-writing history to say Armenians were the
perpetrators rather than victims "doesn’t change historical fact,"
Der Yeghiayan said. "Our cultural and religious monuments are our
witnesses, in ruins, but still proof."

Forgiveness, not hatred, heals human hearts, he said.

Blickenstaff cited an example of Der Yeghiayan’s "quietly relentless"
efforts for friendship and peace.

Shortly before they departed for the 1985 trip to the then
USSR-controlled modern Armenia, a Glendale family asked Blickenstaff
to facilitate the release of relatives still in Armenia.

"I had no idea what that would involve, but I promised I’d try," the
mayor said.

He and Der Yeghiayan met with the Glendale family’s relatives in
Armenia. Der Yeghiayan constantly appealed to political officials to
let the relatives come to America, but leaders left them guessing.

"One day after we came home I got a call from the Glendale family,
telling me their relatives were arriving at Los Angeles
International," Blickenstaff said.

"We all went to the airport and celebrated."

POLITICAL FORCES IN A TRAP
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily Newspaper
23 Aug 2007
Armenia

The Tools Replace the Goal

"Genre Crisis" – this is how SHAVARSH KOCHARYAN, Head of the National
Democratic Party (NDP) estimated the current situation on the native
political arena prior to the elections, while making a speech in
"Urbat" club yesterday.

The essence of the "Genre Crisis" is that the political forces
have "found themselves in a trap: the tools have come to replace
the goal. It is a well-known truth that power is just a tool for
carrying out their ideas and programs, and the goal consists of just
the ideas and the programs. In our reality, power has, unfortunately,
become an end in itself.

That’s to say, the tool has become a goal.` In the meantime,
the same concerns the Government and the Opposition as well, "the
pro-government front is doing its utmost to remain in power at all
costs, and the Opposition is doing its utmost to accede to power at
all costs. As a result, the programs and ideas have been mainly pushed
to the background, at least, they are not available to the public,
and the personalities and ambitions have appeared on the frontline."

It is not accidental that according to the NDU leader "only the
personalities are discussed" in the context of the possible and
impossible format searches, "as to what this or that person intends
to carry out, it is not discussed in general." Moreover, "if we
try to estimate the political arena in its integrity, I would say
that the political arena is oppositional; it opposes the people,"
Sh. Kocharyan is convinced.

And this gives rise to the people’s indifference to and disappointment
with both the political forces and the political processes in
general. That’s why some individuals from time to try to accuse the
people. "The people have never been irresponsive to the positive
steps proposed in politics."

DON’T COUNT THE CANDIDATES BEFORE THEY ARE NOMINATED

Another flagrant manifestation of the "Genre Crisis" is the
abundance of the minor parties growing like mushrooms after
rain. Their overwhelming majority lack relevant human resources,
provincial structures and financial capacities for becoming a factor
or creating a climate on the political arena to a certain degree,
"Only the pro-Government structures have such capacities and this
will cintinue as long as they are in power." This is where we need
qualitative changes like the air we breathe, and the sooner it is done,
the better, because if the things go this way the country may very
soon find itself in a situation where everything is predetermined."

In connection with the pre-election events, Sh. Kocharyan emphasized 3
main factors, "The post and the authorities of the President continue
to be overestimated; whereas under the amended Constitution the
President does not have the vast opportunities he had before. This
is the first thing to say.

The second thing is that the issue of forming a Government in Armenia
was solved through Parliamentary elections. That is, if the elected
President is a representative of a political faction other than the
Parliamentary majority, either he has to put up with the situation
and work with the majority or the Opposition will be in possession
of all the levers to isolate the President," i.e. to impose its will
on the latter.

And after all, "Likewise chickens which should be counted after they
are hatched, Presidential candidates should be counted after they are
nominated. Therefore, let’s wait till autumn," the guest-speaker of
"Urbat" club said. Mr. Kocharyan refrained from the thankless task
of making any estimation with regard to the Presidential candidates.

The speaker refuted the rumors about the merging of the National
Democratic Union, the National Democratic Party and the National
Democrats’ Union as well as Vazgen Manoukyan’s becoming a political
support, "I am not aware of it. I have heard from the press that such
negotiations are under way. It would be very interesting if you gave
me more information about it."

As to the argument that the advocates of L. T. P.’s return are
trying to substantiate this irreversible public demand, the NDP
leader considers it extraordinary, "They say, if he comes to power,
the pro-Government camp will split; part of it will support him,
and there staging a coup will be possible. This means that part has
eventually turned away from people."

What is Sh. Kocharyan’s attitude towards one of the
ex-Parliamentarian’s sensational statement made once upon a time that
in case L.T. P. and Vazgen Manoukyan appear on the platform together,
at least half a million people are sure to gather there. In response
to our question, Sh, Kocharyan grinned and then added, "I don’t think
that by following the ‘1+1’ formula it is possible to make such a
fuss. But it will be a very interesting qualitative change containing
many questionable issues. For instance, if they are together now,
why did they separate from each other then?"

PRESS RELEASE
Hayastan All-Armenian Fund
Governmental Buiding 3, Yerevan, RA
Contact: Lusine Mnatsakanyan
Tel: 3741 56 0106
Fax: 3741 52 15 05
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.himnadram. org

22 August, 2007

Armenia Fund Experts Visit Lori Region

Today, as Armenia Fund’s projects in Tavush villages are entering the
implementation stage, the Fund is dynamically working on expanding the Rural
Development Program to the rest of Armenia’s regions. Part of that process
is defining the potential clusters of villages which are to maximize the
impact of the implemented projects. As part of that process, Vahe
Aghabegians, Armenia Fund executive director, and a group of experts from
the Fund visited Lori region which includes Armenia’s northern border.

The first stop was Vanadzor, the administrative center of the region, where
Mr. Aghabegians met with deputy regional governor who introduced the current
situation in the region’s rural communities. Once the biggest supplier of
yellow cheese in all of the Soviet Union, Lori suffered a sharp economic
decline during the first years of independence. Potato cultivation was once
also big in the region but this was when there was irrigation and when the
villages had tractors, proper roads and natural gas. Now, in average, each
family has one cow, saws only enough wheat and potato to get through the
year and lives off money relatives send from abroad.

Next stop was the town of Tashir and the meeting with local entrepreneur
Khachig Doumigian, the owner of the Village Group cheese and meat
manufacturing enterprise. Mr. Doumigian says there is great potential in the
region for both industries but people need certain economic stimulus.
In the village of Norashen, Armenia Fund was able to find out about Lori’s
current problems firsthand. In line with many other issues, a major concern
for the Norashen community is the poor quality of telecommunication. "Why
pay the monthly fee if we can’t make or receive calls?" complained the
residents.

With a population of 271, the village of Ardzni was one of the smaller
communities Armenia Fund experts visited. The village shares many of the
problems of other villages in Lori and Armenia’s rural communities in
general: severed trading links, absence of infrastructure and investments.
"In our present situation the villager has no reason to stay", said the head
of the village.
With no cultural center and library Ardzni has almost no social life. Many
have left the village for Russia, others are looking to sell their houses
and join their relatives abroad.
"The Rural Development Program has undertaken the task of revitalizing
Armenia’s villages by integrating them into the country’s economy", says
Executive Director Vahe Aghabegians. "Only by doing so can we prevent
hopelessness and emigration."

STORMY SUMMER IN ARMENIA

Panorama.am
21/08/2007

On August 20, at around 8 PM, the village mayor of Voskehask, in the
province of Shirak, phoned the Armenian rescue agency and reported
dirty water flooding the territory of his village, filling the
basements of six homes and their surrounding buildings. The Shirak
provincial center created a committee to study the losses.

On the same day, the mayor of Kaputak village in Kotayk made a similar
call, saying water had flooded the basements of 13 homes and stables,
and had ruined a 200 meter section of the village’s roads. Losses
were to be looked into by a committee set up by the Kotayk provincial
center. Panorama.am was informed about these occurrences by the
Armenian rescue agency.

We point out that heavy rains have fallen this summer not only in
Armenia, but around the world, the result of which thousands of people
have been forced from their homes.

"BOYS GO TO BAGHDAD…"
By Gwynne Dyer

AZG Armenian Daily #149
21/08/2007

Middle East

It’s impossible to say whether the United States will attack Iran
before President George W. Bush leaves office in seventeen months’
time, because nobody in the White House knows yet either. It is easy to
predict what would happen if the US did attack Iran, however, and the
signs are that the hawks in the White House are winning that argument.

The most alarming sign is the news that the Bush administration is
about to brand the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a
"terrorist organisation." This is a highly provocative step, for the
IRGC is not a bunch of fanatical freelances. It is a 125,000-strong
official arm of the Iranian state, parallel to the regular armed
forces but more ideologically motivated and presumably more loyal to
the ruling clerics.

Declaring the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organisation is not just
a way for the US government to vilify Iran as a terrorist state. It is
one of the key policy disputes between those in the administration,
notably Secretary of State Condoleezza Rica and Defence Secretary
Robert Gates, who think an attack on Iran would be unwise, and those
around the vice-president, who think it is essential.

Almost everybody in the Bush administration believes that Iran is
seeking nuclear weapons in order to dominate the region and to attack
Israel. (Others are less certain.) The war party, led by Dick Cheney,
also believes that the clerical regime in Iran would collapse at the
first hard push, since ordinary Iranians thirst for US-style democracy
— and that the attack must be made while President Bush is still
in office, since no successor will have the guts to do it. Even
after all this time, the administration’s old machismo survives:
"The boys go to Baghdad; the real men go to Tehran."

So what will happen if Cheney & Co. get their way? The Iranian regime
would not collapse: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is now unpopular
due to his mishandling of the economy, but patriotic Iranians would
rally even around him if they were attacked by foreigners. What would
collapse, instead, is the world’s oil supply and the global economy.

Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi, commander-in-chief of the
Revolutionary Guards, explained how that would be accomplished
in a speech on 15 August (though he made no direct reference to
the US threat). "Our coast-to-sea missile systems can now reach
the length and breadth of the Gulf and the Sea of Oman," he said,
"and no warships can pass in the Gulf without being in range of our
coast-to-sea missiles." In other words, Iran can close the whole of
the Gulf and its approaches to oil tanker traffic, and if the US Navy
dares to fight in these waters it will lose.

Despite the huge disparity in military power between the United States
and Iran, this is probably true.

Over-committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States cannot
come up with the huge number of extra troops that would be needed to
invade and occupy a mountainous country of 75 million people. The
US can bomb Iran to its heart’s content, hitting all those real
and alleged nuclear facilities, but then it runs out of options —
whereas Iran’s options are very broad.

It could just stop exporting oil itself. Pulling only Iran’s three
and a half million barrels per day off the market, in its present
state, would send oil prices shooting up into the stratosphere. Or
it could get tough and close down all oil-tanker traffic that comes
within range of those missiles — which would mean little or no oil
from Iraq, Saudi Arabia or the smaller Gulf states either. That would
mean global oil rationing, industrial shut-downs, and the end of the
present economic era.

Can those missiles do all that? Yes, they can. The latest generation
of sea-skimming missiles have mobile, easily concealed launchers, and
they would come in very fast and low from anywhere along almost 2,000
kilometres (well over 1,000 miles) of Iran’s Gulf coast. Sink the first
half-dozen tankers, and insurance rates for voyages to the Gulf become
prohibitive, even if you can find owners willing to risk their tankers.

It’s very doubtful that US air strikes could find and destroy all the
missile launchers — consider how badly the Israeli air force did in
south Lebanon last summer — so Iran wins. After a few months, the
other great powers would find some way for the United States to back
away from the confrontation and let the oil start flowing again, but
the US would suffer a far greater humiliation than it did in Vietnam,
while Iran would emerge as the undisputed arbiter of the region.

Many, perhaps most senior American generals and admirals know this, and
are privately opposed to a foredoomed attack on Iran, but in the end
they will do as ordered. Vice-President Dick Cheney and his coterie
don’t know it, preferring to believe that Iranians would welcome
their American attackers with glad cries and open arms. You know,
like the Iraqis did. And Cheney seems to be winning the argument in
the White House.

You Go, Andrew Tarsy!

John DiMascio, August 18, 2007

On Tuesday August 14th I loudly booed Andrew Tarsy because he was
simply reiterating Abraham Foxman’s phony lines about the ADL’s
position on the Armenian Genocide. At the time, you could almost tell
he was struggling with himself because he knew he was lying.

Today I praise Andrew Tarsy for having the courage to risk and lose
his livelihood for the truth.

This stands in stark comparison to politicians who jumped in front of
this citizen-led parade and are now seeking glory on television and
radio.

Watertown owes a great debt of gratitude to Mr. David Boyajian of
Newton. We ought to give him keys to the city. A citizen from a
neighboring communitywrote a letter to the editor and the rest of us
jumped on the bandwagon.

But back to Tarsy and the ADL: Tarsy’s firing speaks volumes about the
so-called independence of ADL ancillaries, as it speaks volumes about
the very nature of the ADL.

As I said Tuesday night, 90 years or 90 days will not move ADL to
change its position.

The folks who, in good faith, served Watertown’s NPFH Committee
areperfectly capable of devising a program of Watertown, by Watertown,
and forWatertown. And it can be done in such a way to address the
other legitimateconcerns people have about free speech etc, etc, etc.

We’ve learned enough about the ADL in this process to know Watertown
and no other municipality of good will should have anything to do with
them. The denial of Armenian Genocide was just a catalyst for others
to speak up about the litany of injustices perpetrated by this agenda
driven lobby; masquerading as human rights advocates.

Andrew Tarsy did the right thing. The Armenian American community in
Watertown and all the rest of us should wish him all the best in his
future.

John DiMascio is a resident of Watertown, Massachussetts, and a
columnist for the Watertown TAB & Press.

ANAND LOSES

The Statesman
Aug 18 2007
India

MAINZ (Germany), Aug. 17: Viswanathan Anand fought back hard but
Armenian Levon Aronian proved to be too good, beating the Indian
Grandmaster in tie-breaker in a thrilling final to clinch the Chess
960 World Championships.

Playing this variant of the game for the first time where the position
of the pieces at the start is set randomly for each game, Anand came
from behind to level the scores 2-2 after the rapid games.

Aronian, however, produced a scintillating performance in the shoot-out
to score 1.5-0.5 to lift the title here yesterday. In the playoff for
third place, Etienne Bacrot of France mauled Rustam Kasimdzhanov of
Uzbekistan 3-1.

Anand lost the first game of the four-game match after spoiling a
promising position against Aronian who played with white pieces.

After a lot of manoeuvring, the players arrived at a chess-like
position where Anand had little to worry about. However, for once,
the Indian ace was under pressure on the clock which eventually had
a telling effect. After drawing the next two games, Anand took the
match to tie-breaker that Aronian won eventually. n PTI