AZERBAIJAN MUST CHOOSE BETWEEN NATO OR NEUTRALITY
by C. Bayramova
Zerkalo
April 3 2008
Azerbaijan
In the balance… Azerbaijan is trying to strike a balance between
the interests of NATO and Russia
Ambassador’s remarks
"Russia has its own position on the question of NATO expansion and
makes no secret of it." APA has reported that Russia’s ambassador
extraordinary and plenipotentiary to Azerbaijan Vasiliy Istratov made
this remark to journalists. The ambassador was giving his assessment
of the likelihood of Azerbaijan being accepted into NATO. "Any country
which takes the decision to join the NATO bloc must understand that
in the security context Russia will review its attitude towards it,"
he noted.
We would like to make the point that Mr Istratov’s statement came
after US President George Bush, on an official visit to Ukraine,
openly supported Kiev and Tbilisi in their bid to join NATO.
Basically, Moscow has already more than once shown its zealous attitude
to the question of the North Atlantic bloc’s eastward expansion,
especially on the question of Ukraine and the countries of the southern
Caucasus where NATO is advancing slowly but surely. And although the
"green light" promised by Bush still does not mean that the doors
of the bloc will immediately open wide to Ukraine and Georgia –
indeed, France has already expressed doubts on this score – Russia,
nevertheless, is trying at every convenient opportunity to point out
to its "disobedient" post-Soviet neighbours the inadvisability of
their joining NATO.
Russia’s fears, like those of France, concerning NATO expansion are
quite understandable. Let’s start with the latter. Clearly, as far as
France is concerned, being one of the most conservative countries in
Europe, NATO expansion at the expense of countries who openly have a
feeling for the USA, would not be of benefit. Even as a member of NATO,
France is not happy about a weakening of Europe’s self-sufficiency
to which she, unlike another European country such as Germany, is
clinging, like the thread of existence and trying to assert its own
"self". Moreover, some European countries do not want to upset Russia
on whom they are dependent in the energy question.
Russia’s concerns
As for Russia, there is no doubt it is very concerned at the threat
of losing levers of influence in the South Caucasus, and indirectly
on Europe, in the event of Ukraine’s complete departure from the
Kremlin’s sphere of influence. Look how much the gas crisis alone
has cost Europe! [Ellipses as given] So, by losing its trump cards
of Georgia and Ukraine, the Russians are risking losing, or rather,
handing over to American influence, the South Caucasus region and
sharply restricting its own possibilities of an outlet to the Black
Sea. These fears began to look more real especially after the havoc
which can still be seen now in post-election Armenia, which is still
a southern advance post for Russia.
After all, it is no secret that the threat of a regime change in
Armenia with the subsequent replacement of a pro-Russian foreign
policy by a pro-western one could lead to radical changes in the
geopolitical situation in the region. It would seem that the onus is
on Armenia, whose isolation from Russia could contribute to a shift
of the whole region to a path of influence of western values. Well,
the region includes Georgia, which has long since declared itself on
the side of NATO, and there remains only Azerbaijan, which will find
it difficult to maintain its neutrality in the NATO question if it
comes to a final choice of the two remaining countries of the South
Caucasus in favour of Euro-Atlantic integration.
Azerbaijan’s "neutrality"
But does Azerbaijan really need this neutrality? It would be naive
to think that little Azerbaijan, situated as it is between two huge
whales – Russia and Iran – will be able to carry on manoeuvring between
their interests, on the one hand, and the western countries – NATO in
particular – on the other. Sooner or later, with or without a regime
change in Armenia, the day will come when the country will have to
decide. Otherwise, we will have to ask ourselves the question: will
Azerbaijan continue to hang on to its status of neutrality and what
will be the price for this, and if we make overtures towards NATO,
what will be the possible levers of pressure from Russia and Iran?
As far as Iran is concerned, it would seem all is quite clear. It
is hard to believe that this country would ever agree to NATO
approaching its borders. Appropriate measures could follow
straightaway. Thus, Naxcivan’s [Azerbaijani exclave located between
Iran and Armenia] geographical position suits Iran completely so that
when necessary it can put pressure on Azerbaijan and thus give NATO
the "brush-off". However, such arguments could seem objective.
Therefore, we decided to put these and other questions to some of
the country’s experts. And this is what they said:
Expert’s view
Political expert Rustam Mammadov said that Azerbaijan’s neutrality
can be put down to the Karabakh conflict, which is preventing the
country from joining NATO. His argument, it seems to us, is rather
dubious because for neighbouring Georgia which, unlike Azerbaijan,
has a number of pockets of conflict, this is in no way an obstacle
for entry into the North Atlantic bloc. It is another matter that,
unlike the Karabakh conflict, in the question of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia NATO is clearly on the side of Georgia.
But on the whole the expert believes that Azerbaijan cannot be a
neutral country because the course of history has been predetermined:
NATO is moving eastward and its interests tally with the economic
processes occurring in the region. In his opinion, neutrality is a
temporary phenomenon, and step by step Azerbaijan intends to continue
to build up its strategic partnership and general cooperation with
NATO. "Today the country does not consider the question of joining
NATO as paramount. And if it isn’t, what is the point of shouting to
the whole world about its membership? This would be rubbing people
up the wrong way all over the world. Moreover, entry requires abiding
by certain procedures, which Azerbaijan is not doing at the moment,"
the expert said.
As regards Russia which, if Azerbaijan departs from a policy of sitting
on the fence and openly progresses towards NATO, starts to apply its
levers of influence on the country, then here the expert was extremely
dubious about such a development of events. According to him, Russia
is hardly likely to do anything in relation to countries which are
officially striving to join NATO. "The most likely thing Russia will
do is to use economic sanctions against these countries. However,
this is also very questionable because it is common knowledge how
these sanctions can backfire on Russia itself. So I do not think that
the Kremlin will do anything serious," Mammadov said.
As an example the expert cited the events of 10 years ago when
Russia ejected Azerbaijan as a partner, as a result of which the
decision was taken to develop economic cooperation with foreign,
mainly western, companies. "Russia thought that Azerbaijan would not
be able to withstand the blockade but the opposite happened. It will
be recalled that the Russian media warned the Russian leadership of
the inexpediency of economic sanctions against Azerbaijan because if
the latter sustained any damage, then Russia’s losses would be felt
twice as much," the expert added.
At the same time Mammadov stressed that if Azerbaijan behaves like
Georgia, which is hell-bent on joining NATO, then Russia might use
its well-known political levers of influence, even the question of
the Azerbaijanis living in Russia. "But Azerbaijan is not Georgia.
Our country is in a very advantageous geopolitical situation,
and Russia itself realizes, too, that it should not offend its
southern neighbour, and Azerbaijan itself sufficiently recognizes the
advisability of conducting a well-balanced policy in relation to its
northern neighbour," he concluded.
NATO wavering, says MP
Milli Majlis MP Fazil Qazanfaroglu [head of the Great Creation Party]
believes that Azerbaijan’s neutrality, in the context of joining the
North Atlantic bloc, is linked first and foremost with the fact that
NATO has still not made up its mind on its position in relation to
the Karabakh conflict, thus destroying the Azerbaijani side’s hopes
of resolving this problem vis-a-vis its membership of the alliance.
Moreover, the MP added, in the present situation, when Russia is using
all kinds of options to prevent Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO,
it is much more advantageous to Azerbaijan to observe these processes
from the side in order to draw lessons in the future and not to repeat
possible mistakes.
Like our previous expert, Qazanfaroglu rules out any serious pressure
from Russia on Azerbaijan as it prepares to join NATO. It is more
likely, the MP believes, that Russia will show its aggressive side only
for show, but not for real, and if that is the case, this will be of
a temporary nature. "Russia has already shown its worst side once as
far as its attitude to Azerbaijan is concerned. It helped Karabakh to
be transferred to Armenian control. It can’t do any worse than that,"
the MP concluded.
In the opinion of expert [chairman of the opposition Musavat party
council] Sulhaddin Akbar, a balanced policy in relation to NATO entry,
which our authorities love to brag about so much, will lead at the end
of the day to a situation where Azerbaijan will find itself all alone
in the international arena without a reliable strategic partner. As
far as the price of this neutrality is concerned, it would be naive to
believe that such a small country as ours, one which is surrounded by
world powers, can conduct an independent policy. The most Azerbaijan
can do is to find its own place in the geopolitical game which is
being waged by the bigger and stronger players, and based on whatever
steps they take, derive what we can to our advantage.
As regards Iran, whose unpredictability in relation to NATO’s eastward
expansion could have a negative effect on Azerbaijan, here the expert
stressed the following: "Up to now Iran has not expressed its opinion
on NATO’s expansion. I don’t rule out the possibility that when the
question of Azerbaijan’s joining the North Atlantic bloc is finalized,
then our southern neighbour may make things hot for us. However, on
the other hand, this should not intimidate us, because with entry into
NATO this same organization will have a vested interest in protecting
security and preventing possible calamities as regards Azerbaijan,"
Akbar concluded.